iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,075 Blog Posts

HUGE

A shot was fired across the bow of every…you know what, I’m not going to poke the bears as they’re already illiquid. A shot was fired across the bow of every underinvested money manager who continues to underperform the S&P 500. You know who you are, calling yourself a professional, what with the fees and the boats and the cocaine buffets. I hope you’re checking in on a low powered Internet connection, high on “the piff” considering your options. Let me lay a few out:

Buy index futures very quickly on Sunday
Come to work Monday and buy Goldman Sachs
Quit and scrape together money to obtain a cabbie license
Dust off that resume and work you fickle Ivy League networks (read fellatio)
Go home and play with your kids, they won’t judge you

Ah ok I’m done. What a comeback today, the type you can only see orchestrated by the greatest powers in finance, true architects. The truth is, I don’t manage money for others…just the scraps I’ve worked tirelessly to gather, living for years like a hobo. I’ve always hated being wrong. But I temper that hatred, and stop being wrong when biting the proverbial bullet is the only way out. If these charts play out how they’re 75% likely to, you need to stop being wrong and ratchet up your longs, friend.

In doing so, your orders will propel my existing positions higher, appreciating my capital while I drink Bush Light and skip stones in paradise. For you see, I gathered your jetsam for two weeks. The bow of my boat could barely crest the rough waves, but safe harbor is in sight. Soon I’ll own the entire port.

All I did today, aside for living the dream, is buy more GS shares. There’s a saying, “When in doubt, buy Goldman.” I did exactly that. Have a great weekend.

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Stow Your Space Helmet Under Your Chair

We thoroughly auctioned 1624 during the Employment Data drop, with algos tearing a rift in the market one nanosecond at a time. One day watch these announcements through the filter of a 2500 contract or 3 tick range bar and get a feel for HFT. It’s like a ballet.

Anyhow, the level was “auctioned” and we had the classic first move fake out, followed by the takeout, followed by the real move, which was decidedly lower…20 handles off the high. Now the ES_F is more or less churning and the afternoon may offer some directional moves, but you’re of better service to your clients or your own money laying off this tape.

I don’t know, eat a hot dog or two.

The only moves I’m considering are selling O, which would need to weaken further, or selling YGE, which would need to strengthen, further.

Otherwise I’m enjoying the view, talking a bit of smack on the twitter hater network, and consuming baked beans straight from the crock pot. Like a good god damn.

I suggest you stow your space helmet, but keep it nearby in case of an impromptu launch, pinning us north of 1624 on the close.

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YOUR SPACE HELMUT, PUT IT ON

Note the light blue line at 1623.75, that is the origination of the big 06/29 long liquidation. I expect a test of this level soon, if not this week.

We traded up to this key level in globex while celebrating our country’s independence. Now all we have to do is hold this level while the cavemen in Africa volley motor shells and Molotov cocktails at one another.

Gentlemen, be patient, let the trading day progress, and above all, keep this level in the front of your mind for it is a launch pad. Lets see which side we close on. Godspeed America, god damned speed.

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Dropping a Few Bombs on My Way Out

You’ll hear reports this afternoon about how the market gave up its “POMO Pump” and how we’re going to hell in an Egyptian hand basket.  You’ll also read two or three articles speculating about Friday morning’s Employment Report.  Bears want a good number, odd no?  Did we close off the high of the day?  We did.  Did Fords!?  No.

On the surface, today did nothing.  If you sleep at night, and couldn’t care less about the picture our overnight markets paint, you awoke to a modest gap lower, you bought it, you ate a hoagie, and then you enjoyed capital appreciation, like a good American.

Completely aside, did you see the abortion protestors and their haters getting “Hail Satan” trending on twitter?  For a moment I thought UNXL reversed.  Protestors continually blow my mind…where does one find the time?  Then again I care about nothing.

AIXG started working today, finally.  I want to have a nice, stable, long term relationship with AIXG, none of this run and gun business.

O has several traders on the edge of their seats.  On one hand the stock is way oversold.  On the other hand, the momentum is yet to truly shift.  We’re in the courting stage where everyone’s nice but not being completely real, you know what I mean?  I’m yet to reach my initial profit target at 44.44.

ANGI looks so ready and I look forward to dropping bombs on the paraquat who called me a bag holder citing the .com bubble.  LOL

Z however, continues to be a bumpy ride.  I still like the look.

That’s all my thoughts.  Have a safe holiday everyone.  I love me some fireworks, but I never “hold the mortar tube.”  You shouldn’t either.

U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

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Keep in Mind Tomorrow is the Fourth

Which means today is the third, you follow?  Let me explain:

We had a rather pungent selloff overnight, taking us as much as 13 handles off Tuesday’s close.  We continue to be operating in a gap prone environment so mentally you should be prepared to handle such occurrences if you choose to hold positions overnight.

The key support today, on this shortened trading session, is 1592 which is only two handles below the overnight low at 1594.  When I present the market profile to you, and you see the succinct manner in which it has located highs and lows this week, you’ll understand the gravity of this level.

Below 1592, price could begin working toward 1584, however given the shortened session, it would take a great deal of fear to press into these levels.

We’re right on the cusp of considering today’s gap to be of the pro variety, so it carries a lower probability of filling, but also a much higher reward.  Let’s see who enters the market early on, if at all.

I’ve noted the levels I’ll be trading around in the following profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_07032013

UPDATE: ON $F strength, I’ve swapped the dirty Brit Beatles song for the USA #1 Beach Boys:

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Charts Are a Bit “Meh” Until They ARE NOT!

Because when three months go by and every stock feels like a chase, you’ll pull out your weekly charts and be like, “Well when was that perfect setup and why did I miss it?  Oh, I see, it was the sketchy week leading into the 4th of July, when I tread lightly.”  And you’ll be like, “Damn, of course that’s when the opportunistic bulls went all capre diem, bastards!”  This scenario will resonate even louder for the cash-heavy vacationers…

…Raul is never on vacation, even when on vacation.

I’ve accepted that travel for the next 3-9 years must be within the confines of an acceptable internet connection.  Perhaps you’re like, “that’s sad, really.”  You shouldn’t.  I’m hungry, and we “all gone eat honey.”  Mine is simply being deferred into my early 30’s.

We’re all staring at the same charts, and it’s hard to look away.  SPY is like your favorite train-wrecked celebrity, blowing cocaine and walking through Hollywood naked.  We’re disgusted, but a part of us wonders if we’ll ever experience such luxuriously-destitute conditions.  You’re sure they’ll die or be arrested, but just then Richard Branson comes to their rescue, flying them off the streets in his spaceship.  That’s the ETF SPY summed up in one paragraph.

It’s a totally new world we live in.  Get out your space helmets friends!

So I’m Don Johnson long into tomorrow’s shortened trading session, fully prepared to hammock myself and drink cucumber water once the market closes.  Then blow shit up, and then have a remote presence Friday, like an alien.

I’m over MAX HOLDING COUNT, currently holding 14 longs, like a box of dynamite.

Cash is only 10 percent and here are my longs, listed by size, largest-to-smallest:

TPX, F, Z, GS, FB, ANGI, SHLD, AAPL, IMMR, O, CREE, AIXG, ENPH, and YGE

I’m certain this list has little value to you because, well, it’s too many names.  I’ll cut the solars on any additional weakness, but I couldn’t stand the thought of cutting them before they actually become fireworks…they’ve done nothing wrong.

O shot out of a clown cannon into the bell.  The move lower looks way overdone, and inside 12631 we talked about how this is one of my favorite setups.

AAPL made it back to my basis, so I cut it in half.  Sitting through that drawdown full sized was muy shitty.

F closed out at 52 week highs, fantastic looking chart.

ANGI is still “meh”

CREE: all year I’ve wished I had more, but all year I’ve been long so….I can’t beat myself up too bad.

GS needs to do some fancy bear-trapping, because right now, they’re asserting themselves rather well.

Enough, I grow tired.  See you homos later.

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Patriot Rally

Today’s follow through atop yesterday’s move atop last week’s move HIGHER is fueled by pure patriotism.  As I type, the index futures are “giving it up” but I don’t care.  You may in fact be hard up to find a bull who cares, because “the good stocks” are higher; stocks like Fords (sic), Cree, and Apple.

The long wick on XLF and all the jitters it produced have to this point been swept aside, and the financials are behaving rather constructive.

REITS are defying bearish setups, TLT is up, and so is our dollar.  Keep in mind, our jungle informant, deep in the Forex bush, is expecting an ambush on the dollar soon.  Always keep an open ear to Kong.

Pincus over at ZNGA decided he wants his net worth to appreciate, so he replaced himself.  In perhaps the best decision of his life, he hijacked Microsoft’s head of Xbox, brilliant.  I’m constructive on ZNGA henceforth, and will patiently tan my body and plan my entry.  I will likely pepper myself in in 1/2s, 1/3s, or ¼’s due to the nature of ZNGA shares.

My only actions thus far have been tossing fish in the futures, making lunch monies, and scaling off some AAPL shares as we rocketed into the 33ema @ Jerry Garcia aka $420.

I still want SHLD, and I thought your bastards may have beat me to it, but here it comes, right to mama.

ANGI needs to go soon or it’s out, I want to keep my holdings to 12 and this one is, how do you say?  Stalling.

As we enter afternoon trading, the question is, do the bears really want to be short into the kickass fourth of July?  Cover your shares, or face a barrage of whirly birds, mortars, and wolf packs.

Bonus: What’s your favorite firework?  Let me know in the comments below.  I’m going shopping.

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Choppy Overnight but Balanced

As much as I love software updates, I’m still having trouble getting my NinjaTrader platform to display profile charts.  On top of that, most of my historical data was wiped out.  I’m hoping I can recover the data.

Thus I will present the bar chart again today, and reference the key levels from the last two days of trade.

I had a profile running yesterday during the RTH, and the key take away from the action was the P-shape profile as we worked up into the long liquidation that occurred on 06/19.  Buyers were able to squeeze the sellers early on with gap-and-go action, only to see the sellers overwhelm the tape after the morning’s dynamic move.  The initiating sell orders (orders executed at the bid) began flowing in around 12pm, and pressed against a price “shelf” at 1616.  For a moment it appeared they may not break the level and a second squeeze would ensue.  However, they broke the level and were able to rotate us back down to the opening print.

I’ve noted where the shelf exists in orange on the following bar chart.  I’ve noted other levels I’ll be keying off of as well.  Note the light blue line at 1623.75, that is the origination of the big 06/29 long liquidation.  I expect a test of this level soon, if not this week.

ES_BARCHART_0702013

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BOOM! July

eagle

 

Just like that we’re thrown into the month of July, like a Christian catapulted into the Colosseum to feed the lions.  The S&P futures via the E-minis have been all over the place, allowing traders to swing both ways intra-day with relative ease.

The main takeaway from the last 22 hours of S&P moves is we made new swing highs, taking us about half way up the big liquidation snap that started on 06/19.  Even if today marks the high for the week, it’s a damn good one.

The important matter is how the market chooses to digest today’s action as we approach the kickass 4th of July.  Ideally, volume tapers off and everything becomes rather boring.  I would like boring as I sit 80 percent long, because really I only want to buy gigantic fyreworks (sic) and “blow shit up” to impress my relatives.

Imagine a scenario where we slowly print a higher low in-or-around 1600…wouldn’t that spook the bears?

Moving on to book talk, I sold ½ my YGE long for a 10 percent gain.  My track record in trading the name is still negative, but it was nice to land a win.  I still like the name even though it printed a nasty candle today.  I’m keeping my little ¼ on a tight leash.

I added to my Z and GS longs, in that order.  They’re about the same size now, which is about ¾ size.  I see a similar pattern between the two daily charts which is yet to materialize, which means I’m early, which means the high probability hasn’t set in yet, which means I may lose money.  I continue to jump the gun on my setups.

That’s all I did today, essentially pooling my wins from YGE into Z and GS.

I want to join the iBC crew on SHLD down here as I believe the price presents an opportunity to buy the name at a discount.  However, I’m backing off in hopes of slightly lower prices.  I may not see them.

Finally, remember when I bought RGLD sub $50 and then went on a dog and pony show, decreeing my greatness?  Anyhow I only scaled a small bit off and a nasty gap lower made the trade a net loss, but that’s not what I want to turn your attention to.  Instead, I want to discuss how I was offered sub $40 shares by the stock gods and not only did my spider senses fire off a buy signal, “The Fly” spoon fed us high probability statistics.  And what did I do?  NOT JUMP THE GUN!  I stuck my head in the sand.  It’s been a distraction to watch it rip 10 percent since then.  Now that I’ve penned my frustration, I no longer care.

Have a good one

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July Kicks off With a Pump

When the clock struck midnight and it officially became July, the market went on a pure, unadulterated 16 handle run off the lows of the globex session.  The move tested the RTH highs from Friday at 1610 before retracing just above 1600.  A second test of the 1610 level occurred, giving us five touches of this level.

Should it be tested again in RTH, I’ll be playing for a move though it and up to 1614.

I’ve noted other key levels for today’s trade on the following bar chart.  I upgraded NinjaTrader over the weekend and haven’t managed to work all the bugs out.  Therefore I will be trading without my profiles today, aka V.F.R.

Click to enlarge:

ES_BARCHART_07012013

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