iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,043 Blog Posts

Majestic Solar Panels

Years of desensitization from a 90’s childhood playing Grand Theft Auto and Doom, watching ultra-violent movies like American History X, and witnessing the opening of the proverbial floodgates via the World Wide Web has made it very difficult to get me excited.  Perhaps that is why I simply cannot get excited about solar technology.  Or, just maybe, it’s because it lacks POWER.

The Italians get me excited with the eCat, but nobody has proven anything yet.

You may be asking yourself, “Why then, Raul, do we see you taking positions in solar stocks so mucho?”  I could cite the momentum as a reason or I could cite our current administration, but the real answer is I just don’t know.  It’s such boring technology.  Remember, I live in one of the least sunny places on the planet, so I’m sure that weighs in on my bias.

FSLR whiffed on earnings, the highlight of their conference call is their ‘pipeline’ of deals, which we’re to believe they’ll close on, and a new partnership with General Electric.  Cool brah, I have a pipeline of deals too, they just keep ignoring my emails (spam).

Solar just doesn’t spin the turbines yet, which brings us back to my primary 2013 thesis, LED lights.  A business can invest in itself TODAY, replace all of their lighting TODAY, and reduce their electric usage by over 20 percent.  The payback period on the investment is quick, one to three years.  Large shop spaces with high intensity discharge lighting can save even MORE.  THIS TECHNOLOGY, my friends, is a step in the right direction.  AND IT MAKES SENSE TO BUSINESSES, because they’re cash flows aren’t jeopardized for ten, fifteen years.  Silly solar salesmen sitting on their leads.

YGE is Chinese, so they have that going for them.  And by that I mean souped up books and a Chairman that will handle any insolent workers.

Aside from being on the wrong end of the FSLR call, I traded spooz really well.  I pulled out my weekly nut today, fading the down moves early on, then fading the up moves in the afternoon.  It was pretty great, 5 planned trades, 0 unplanned.

I bought KWK thinking it could squeeze.  It didn’t, yet.  I still think it’s priced for certain death and with earnings out of the way and our Mideast Embassies closed, perhaps the energy complex could be in for a bit of summer time madness.

I eyeballed OCZ but missed adding, I’m still long.  Something is about to go down in this name, I can feel it in my bones.

To think, I almost sold CREE today.  I can’t belive that thought crosses my mind, ever.  It’s a stupid thought.  Stupid brain, always getting in my way.

I’m off to mop the floors and brood.

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Get Ready For a Mind Blow

We get to hear from First Solar after the bell today and the stock is price for uncertainty.  It has been priced for uncertainty since falling off its trend a bit in mid-June.  Since then we’ve seen a long consolidation trade.  I’m betting the earnings announcement breaks us out of this grind, but in which direction?

I would prefer higher, of course, so as to give the entire industry a fresh thrust of inertia.  You won’t find a clearer picture of bracketed price action than the FSLR daily chart:

FSLR

The next move should be a meaningful one.  Full Disclosure: I’m long quite a bit of YGE.

 

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Tuesday Morning Sentiment Analysis

A little bit of softness in the overnight session as we continue to hover along at the all-time highs in the stock market. Overall however, we’re consolidating after more impressive progress higher by the bulls.  If we are indeed to see the market roll over and price correct lower, there are a several levels of support the sellers need to reclaim.

One piece of context to keep in mind early on is the gap above created by the overnight weakness.  I’ll certainly be on watch for buyers to trade us back up to 1702.75 early on considering its close proximity to our current trade price.

On the downside, I’ll be looking for signs of buyers at 1693.50, Thursday’s low, and also our current August low.  Actually, the August low is 1694, but my profiles tell me to watch two ticks lower.  I know it’s a bit granular but it matters.

Any sustained trade below 1693 could result in a larger rotation lower, taking us down to 1690.50 then 1689.50.  Failure at these levels puts us back inside the large value distribution we built prior to making fresh highs.

To the upside, I’m still very interested in 1706.  We’re starting to show signs of buyer exhaustion, and that levels represents the exhaustion point according to my data.  Should this be proven untrue by strong order flow, I’ll be impressed.

I’ve highlighted a few scenarios I could see playing out today and important price levels on the following market profile charts:

ES_MarketProfile_08062013

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WE HAVE MUCH TO DISCUSS

Pardon my intraday absence, today was certainly one for the record books in tasks-completed terms.  My head, it’s still spinning.  At this point I’ve abandoned hope of completing today’s docket, stared out the window hopelessly, shot gunned my last Monster beverage (kidney stones in a can as I call it) and picked up my pen to debrief my internet people.

This was one hell of a trading session if you ask me.  The SPY was dead tuna.  I traded early on, via my /ES_F, putting in two really impressive trades, if I do say so myself.  Aside very quickly: did you see scenario 1 on this morning’s market profile report?  I wield a razor sharp fife before dawn and the market is my fiddle, dancing like I’m shooting bullets at its feet.  I’m not caring so much about mangling that metaphor to bits.  Anyhowdooski, I bought the LOD, so very nice, so very clean, grabbed two handles, then I bought again, grabbed another 1.5 handles and went on my merry way.

The volume was awful in the futures, it was like trading /6e_F back in my 3am polyphasic days.  I used to run such a tight schedule I even timed my shits, times were odd to say the least.

In the stocks, I sold GTAT and END, nearly top ticking both.  I felt like such a boss.  GTAT reported today after the bell and guess what?  They’re crushing!  Something about the current economy and their involvement in the LED and solar game has demand picking up on their end.  Indeud.

END was a little spinner for me, a marvelous few nights gaining all over it, then I sold out, leaving it without notice.  But I’ll tell you this, if it keeps acting right, I’ll be back before you know it, especially because my girl Sooz is all over it.

All of the sudden and without warning, my cash was over 60 percent!  Puke, I don’t care if we’re printing high water marks on low volume, there are stocks setting up, I needed more exposure.  So this little piggy went to the market:

I bought ONVO @ $4.82

I bought YGE @ $4.00

Then I bought more YGE @ $3.96

I had a little bit of YGE kicking around in the old port prior to these purchases.  I’ve been in YGE for a while now, we have a thing sort of going on, YGE and me.  So…we’re going to make it a little more serious.  Why?  Because FSLR reports tomorrow, it could be a catalyst for the whole industry if they report strong.  And if Premier Obama wants to hang his fedora on anything during his administration, it god damned better be outperformance by the solar industry in AMERICA.  Home of the free baby!

And the irony of course is how I’m looking to benefit from this via a CHINESE solar stock, MAU!

Say what you will, but the manufacturing goes down in China, not our backyards, Gus.

ONVO I can’t say much for except, if I keep drinking these Monsters, somebody better be around to print me a new kidney, the tube that runs from my kidney to my bladder, a new bladder, and a new penis, because it’s all on the line.

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Keeping Our Head Clear at the High Altitude

The overnight session was quiet and balanced, with a slight upward bias after gapping lower a bit.  As a result, we have a profile which suggests we may see a rotation lower early on.  The action overnight was very slow however, and didn’t produce much by the way of an auction.  Therefore, both the poor high (double TPO) and the low are susceptible to breakage.

I’ve drawn out three scenarios on the 24-hour profile chart (first chart below) none of which would surprise me much.

There’s still a gap present in the regular trading hour (RTH) profiles dating back to month-end.  Therefore, although it would seem abnormally weak and corrective for price to trade back down to 1681.75, it should still be in kept in the realm of possibility.  However, my view is that demand for equities is high, especially for the month of August (historically a weak month) and everyone is looking to buy this gap, so we may not see it.

Upside target is 1706 (measured move target).

Other levels which may see demand flow in are 1696, 1690.50, 1689.50, and 1682.50.  I’ve highlighted these levels of support on the second market profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_08052013_24H

ES_MarketProfile_08052013

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These LED Companies Are Going To Make So Much Money

Every time I circle back on the prospects of LED technology I’m blown to bits by the size of this market and it’s supple virginity.  There are piles of money sitting all across the country, waiting to be gathered by the right group of prospectors.

I really don’t even like telling you about it too much, because I want it all for myself.

RVLT was on sale this week, I don’t doubt it will go on sale again.  And you should buy it, with great pomp and vigor.  When you go out tasting cocktails with your boyfriends you should brag about your RVLT shares.  When you’re playing grab ass in the parking lot, you should open your trunk and pass out the literature you’ve prepared discussing the future of the LED industry.

Get them in on it, be their leader you big homo.

Obviously CREE is a proof of concept, trading near all-time highs.  Of course they’re stealing the headlines nailing big time contracts with universities and municipalities.  But there’s so many other business out there, low hanging fruit, which will be snatched up at a rapid rate by none other than RVLT.

I think these jackasses are finally getting that, instead of trying to be the dude with the biggest patent, they need to focus on driving retro fits, driving the ball down the field if you will.

We can get cute and trade these stocks with our ADD, or we can grab our nuts and slap a flag on top of the mountain, MIEN!

You know I’m in bed with the German retards at AIXG.  You know I’m in bed with CREE.  What you don’t know is RVLT is my sexy mistress, wearing the most revealing dresses and the latest styling’s from Tom Ford.

Everyone’s still shortsighted on the LED industry, trust.

Past Reads:

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/01/23/new-buy-cree/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/01/28/the-most-exciting-industry-and-how-to-game-it/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/02/17/the-next-big-trade-it-is-big/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/02/18/on-second-thought-big-trade-redux/

http://ibankcoin.com/raul3/2013/06/17/2013-is-still-the-year-of-the-led/

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Friday Sentiment Report

Well here we are on another Friday, the first of its kind for August, and the market has confidently settled into the 1700 handle, using the overnight session to familiarize itself with the price level and digest the progress made.

The markets took a pause overnight, printing a quiet and balanced session.  We have payroll data out in about 20 minutes, and I suspect we’ll see some action leading into the announcement.

Yesterday was an upward auction all day after gapping higher, the market never suggested a gap fill to be in the cards, thus we’ve left a large gap open.  It’s not clear on the profile because we closed near the low of the day on Wednesday and the market came down and tested the high-of-Wednesday to the tick before proceeding higher, but a gap in fact does still exist.  And I have a strong feeling there are participants looking to buy that gap down at 1681.50.  However, they may not see the level print before confidence resumes in the marketplace.

The market is extended, but it’s Friday and we could enter the realm of irrational.  Again, I suspect we’ll have more visibility of the rotations after the data at 8:30.

On any pullbacks, I’ll be looking for signs of buyers at 1696.50 than 1693.  The measured move upside target is 1708.50.

I’ve highlighted these observations on the following market profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_08022013

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BOOK INTO THE BELL

Everyone’s getting their panties in a bind over tomorrow morning’s premarket jobs data, thus I thought it my public service to broadcast my book into the bell.

Enjoy,

Raul

 

Here’s my book, by size, biggest listed first and cascading in size smaller and smaller as the list goes on:

AIXG, FXY, F, CREE, FB, I, END, IMMR, YGE, GTAT, OCZ, BPZ, and O

Cashish, it’s high, about 50%

TOP PICK: I WISH I HAD ZILLOW DAMN!

I like END the best baby

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Winner of the Mediocrity Award

You can ‘get by’ being mediocre.  You may even be so lucky as to afford the occasional weekend vacation from your modest suburban home.  Your children can attend mediocre schools and earn mediocre grades in spelling and mathematics.  You can buy a dog off craigslist and admire its scruffiness and lack of AKC certification.

You might even set up a horseshoe pit to occupy your red necked relatives while you barbeque hotdogs.  Fun times will be had by all.

I’ve traded mediocre all day, when I should be trading like Chief Keef, if that makes sense.  Sure, I’m long, with about 50 percent of my book.  Yes, I took two planned trades today in the futures, that earned chicken and beer money.  But where’s the tenacity?  Where’s the gumption?

I’ll stop speaking to my own subconscious now and address you, good people of iBankCoin.  I traded like a little baby today, hiding under my sheets from the risk reaper.

Buying END yesterday was so perfect.  I sized the position perfect: 10 percent of my book.  The light and sweet ripped overnight, so I woke up like, “now these shorts can’t leave.”  Yet I SOLD 2/3 of my long below $4.50, for what?  I don’t know!  I wasn’t getting my fix fast enough.  I should have been scaling off right here, at 4.67, earning me more meat before trimming down to a runner.  The trade has tacked 50 basis points onto my YTD return already, but it could have easily tacked on 100.  I’m keeping my runner and aggressively hunting out more oil opportunities.

My second $ES_F trade I played along inside The Pelican Room, it fruited early and I earned my first scale, 1.25 points.  Already being a puss, I nudged my first scale in a tick.  Don’t ask why?  Because I don’t know except the market paused for like 30 seconds.  Then I sat through the lunch hour baby sitting my final contract.  I started thinking the upside progress would clunk out so I raised my stop a few ticks above the logical support.  You can guess what happened next: the market stopped me out to the tick then went One Direction, up, for four handles.  That was my pay day.

I feel really confident about my trading right now.  I’m so close to making a breakthrough, closer than most of you will ever be.  Perhaps you’re this close too or at least you have been, but just at this moment your willpower fails you and you give up.  That must be what happens, why 90% of traders fail, because they give up when they’re so god damned close.

RISE UP MOTHA FUCKAS!

 

I’m close

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Building Energy For A Powerful Move

The overnight session was all buy side as the /ES contract continues to print a near-perfect sine wave across time.  The action looks to be building up plenty of energy, and I suspect the next move away from the large balance area will be a meaningful one.

The bracket extremes on this gyration range from 1694 – 1680.  The action within these prices encapsulates all of this week’s trade.  As I type, the bulls are pressing up against these upper limits, printing the 1694 handle about an hour back.  The momentum is certainly theirs to run with, should the buyers press their initiative early on.

Let’s not make this any more difficult than it needs to be, if we sustain trade > 1694, we’ll be targeting the 1700 century mark. 

Should we trade decidedly lower, or perhaps see a failed push by the bulls, I’ll be looking for signs of buyers first at 1687, then again at 1683.  Failure to hold these levels could introduce selling into the market, pressing us to test 1676 and perhaps even Friday’s low at 1670.50.

I’ve noted these interesting levels on the following market profile chart:

ES_MarketProfile_08012013

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