YOU’RE GONNA PAY UP

458 views

Conditions this morning were perfect for a Morrie’s wig shop short squeeze. Profile alignments are not always so ideal, but when they are you must be ready to strike with conviction and vigor. Now that it is the afternoon we can see that tape speed has been reasonable. This bodes well for the bull camp. Considering the horror this week has already presented, I would be remiss to turn off the fasten seatbelt. If I did passengers would freely roam the cocked pit, purposely touching their bums to others crotches and such. These conditions are more, “Stay in your seat, but go ahead and fill your Bloody Mary to the brim.”

Most of you are in a pickle—a middle seat of sorts. Take the Tesla haters, they are doomed and can resume living in a cave, staring at shadows on the wall. But really it is anyone who lacked the intestinal fortitude to buy a crashing market.

You are now presented with 3 options and they all stink. You can short the rally, sit elbow deep on your hands, or buy atop 5-sometimes-10 percent moves.

I am in no such predicament. Mine is a bit more complicated, yes, but long only, cash low, and eyeballing certain exit strategies, slowly.

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MY BOOK TODAY.

Ripe Conditions for A Short Squeeze

424 views

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

08272015_NQ_VP

Market Dip Performance Recap

379 views

I flipped bias too soon lads. It was last Friday morning. The summer looked promising and I rode the initial bear move down rigorously. After the short was covered I was full puffed chest, so I immediately flipped long. Then I went longer late Friday afternoon. Then I caught the worst case of the Monday’s ever in the history of bad Monday’s.

As a result, despite the Nasdaq being 400 points off the low, I am still about 75 points under water.

My only Monday morning horse, APP, old APPy, is down like 16% and just a consecutive reminder why I should stick to doing what I do best and outsource ‘stock picking’ to the Space Alien Magician and his robot brain trust.

I will take my loss in APP and I will ride my other longs back to glory. Today was all about sitting. I sat and watched my book churn lower while sucking down caramel frappucino and fish salad, the most addicting vice I’ve ever encountered.

Today ended up a neutral extreme up after we printed the opposite yesterday. That’s classic conditions for a short squeeze—a short squeeze that shall propel the Nasdaqari 75 points higher to bail out your boy.

Now We Have Some Levels To Work With

472 views

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

08262015_NQ_VP

Relying on Uncle Kurt

628 views

Coming into the week I wanted to see the Russell average lead to the upside. It was the most resilient index during last week’s horror show and if it could turn around and play offense after presenting a decent defense then I would get excited. But that is not the case. In fact Uncle Russell is the laggard thus far.

We started the day off high on hope. The situation was desperate last night and fiddly-doo we woke up to the fix. This sort of bipolar behavior is normal in my native Michigan. We have a saying, “Don’t like the weather? Take a nap.”   I was up about 6% this morning but here at the close my book is barely up two.

By afternoon I managed to regain my bearings and step back into Nasdaqs to offer liquidity. It went well. I was able to dial down to the 1.5 point renkos. I imagine the 0.75 point reknos will stay on the shelf for a while.

I am constructive this week. We have alignments that bode well for bulls.   But if the Russell doesn’t go Snake Plissken soon I may duck and cover.

 

I AM WITHOUT HEDGE

336 views

I booked my BIS a few minutes ago, locking in about 18% in gains and also stopped out of my small NUGT runner.  Now I am long only with cash up to about 25%.  More later.

Huge Overnight Buy Wave

363 views

Nasdaq futures are higher on the globex session after printing another extreme session. The range and volume both exceeded 3rd sigma which means statistically it was rare session. Price action was contained inside yesterday’s range, barely. We printed a double top at Monday’s high 4196.25.

The economic calendar picks up steam today. We have the Case Shiller-20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday price opened gap down and quickly pushed lower before triggering a circuit breaker. At this time we had closed the open gap from 10/22/14 at 3950. Next we saw an aggressive push higher which lasted into lunchtime. Buyers stalled just before last Friday’s close and price rolled over. By the close of the session we traded back down into the lower quadrant of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test lower. Look for buyers to defend 4122 and then a push to take out overnight high 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122 opening up a push down to 4139.50.

Hypo 3 Tuesday grind mode sets in, and we churn between 4150 and 4100 with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

08252015_NQ_VP

INSANITY

576 views

I run a renko chart for triggering entries into [and out of] Nasdaq futures. They are great charts because the candle print is based on movement in price not time. I usually run a 0.75 point bar, when pace picks up I switch to 1.5 pointers. Today I was running massive 3 point renkos and they were being machine gunned onto the chart all day long.

50 point unidirectional moves were the norm throughout the entire session.  A feather could push this market 7 handles. I got motion sickness by noon, ate a hammed burger (epic nausea remedy) by 2, and was in a catatonic trance from 3pm to close.

Today changed me. Every teevee I crossed was staring at me like a demonic robot. Phone calls came from relatives and friends. I only traded from about 10:15am-11am then had to stop. There were water puddles by my feet. I was full on losing it.

I bought American Apparel stock, WTF?

I will spend the evening regrouping. Sleep seems unlikely. I need to rebuild several of my charts before I can step back into the fray.

That’s all I can say. This environment is new to me. I am seeking the council of elders just as you should be. But remember: be skeptical of anyone wearing a suit, especially if they have an American Flag pinned to their lapel.

Rare Globex Session To Start Week [UPDATED PRICE LEVELS]

574 views

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week down over 200 points from Friday’s close. The overnight session has exceeded 3rd sigma stats on both range and volume meaning what we see here is an outlier-type event. Price trended lower for most of the session and is currently trading down into prices unseen since October 2014.

The economic calendar is busy this week, but today we have no economic events to consider.

Last week started with a strong up day, Tuesday marked time with a slight down drift, Wednesday was weak then pushed up to neutral and faded, Thursday and Friday we trended lower. We closed the week out trending lower, with price closing around session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for selling to continue. We may see buyers push into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers ahead of 4026 and continued selling. Downside targets include the 10/22/14 open gap at 3950 then the 10/20/2014 open gap at 3867.50.

Hypo 2 buyers step in hard. Push up through 4026. Look for sellers around 4073. If buyers can blow through here then a pole climb up to 4154.

Hypo 3 tight churn on the open with a slight downward skew.

Levels:08232015_NQ_VP_updated-levels

 

You Need To Hide

632 views

hideDANNY

Your life is on the line this week. Markets are running at high speed. This is reduce your position size and expect to take heat conditions. If you aren’t fully prepared to execute, it will be your limbs we sacrifice to cleanse the demons out of the Nasdaqs.

If we gap up into the week expect it to fade. If we gap down conditions are more ideal for a nice flush and flip. The weekly gap has been a solid fade for months. Of course, this time could be different. It sure looks different.

Exodus members, do you know I write a strategy session every week? And that it is included with your market intelligence software at no extra cost? We need to make sure you are reading this thing—it called the short for 4 consecutive weeks aka it nailed the correction. Anyhow, I just published the latest edition. Check it out.

As for the rest of you, expect your positions to be hunted by psychopathic “liquidity” algos wielding foot long kitchen knives.

 

YOU’RE GONNA PAY UP

458 views

Conditions this morning were perfect for a Morrie’s wig shop short squeeze. Profile alignments are not always so ideal, but when they are you must be ready to strike with conviction and vigor. Now that it is the afternoon we can see that tape speed has been reasonable. This bodes well for the bull camp. Considering the horror this week has already presented, I would be remiss to turn off the fasten seatbelt. If I did passengers would freely roam the cocked pit, purposely touching their bums to others crotches and such. These conditions are more, “Stay in your seat, but go ahead and fill your Bloody Mary to the brim.”

Most of you are in a pickle—a middle seat of sorts. Take the Tesla haters, they are doomed and can resume living in a cave, staring at shadows on the wall. But really it is anyone who lacked the intestinal fortitude to buy a crashing market.

You are now presented with 3 options and they all stink. You can short the rally, sit elbow deep on your hands, or buy atop 5-sometimes-10 percent moves.

I am in no such predicament. Mine is a bit more complicated, yes, but long only, cash low, and eyeballing certain exit strategies, slowly.

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MY BOOK TODAY.

Ripe Conditions for A Short Squeeze

424 views

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

08272015_NQ_VP

Market Dip Performance Recap

379 views

I flipped bias too soon lads. It was last Friday morning. The summer looked promising and I rode the initial bear move down rigorously. After the short was covered I was full puffed chest, so I immediately flipped long. Then I went longer late Friday afternoon. Then I caught the worst case of the Monday’s ever in the history of bad Monday’s.

As a result, despite the Nasdaq being 400 points off the low, I am still about 75 points under water.

My only Monday morning horse, APP, old APPy, is down like 16% and just a consecutive reminder why I should stick to doing what I do best and outsource ‘stock picking’ to the Space Alien Magician and his robot brain trust.

I will take my loss in APP and I will ride my other longs back to glory. Today was all about sitting. I sat and watched my book churn lower while sucking down caramel frappucino and fish salad, the most addicting vice I’ve ever encountered.

Today ended up a neutral extreme up after we printed the opposite yesterday. That’s classic conditions for a short squeeze—a short squeeze that shall propel the Nasdaqari 75 points higher to bail out your boy.

Now We Have Some Levels To Work With

472 views

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

08262015_NQ_VP

Relying on Uncle Kurt

628 views

Coming into the week I wanted to see the Russell average lead to the upside. It was the most resilient index during last week’s horror show and if it could turn around and play offense after presenting a decent defense then I would get excited. But that is not the case. In fact Uncle Russell is the laggard thus far.

We started the day off high on hope. The situation was desperate last night and fiddly-doo we woke up to the fix. This sort of bipolar behavior is normal in my native Michigan. We have a saying, “Don’t like the weather? Take a nap.”   I was up about 6% this morning but here at the close my book is barely up two.

By afternoon I managed to regain my bearings and step back into Nasdaqs to offer liquidity. It went well. I was able to dial down to the 1.5 point renkos. I imagine the 0.75 point reknos will stay on the shelf for a while.

I am constructive this week. We have alignments that bode well for bulls.   But if the Russell doesn’t go Snake Plissken soon I may duck and cover.

 

I AM WITHOUT HEDGE

336 views

I booked my BIS a few minutes ago, locking in about 18% in gains and also stopped out of my small NUGT runner.  Now I am long only with cash up to about 25%.  More later.

Huge Overnight Buy Wave

363 views

Nasdaq futures are higher on the globex session after printing another extreme session. The range and volume both exceeded 3rd sigma which means statistically it was rare session. Price action was contained inside yesterday’s range, barely. We printed a double top at Monday’s high 4196.25.

The economic calendar picks up steam today. We have the Case Shiller-20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday price opened gap down and quickly pushed lower before triggering a circuit breaker. At this time we had closed the open gap from 10/22/14 at 3950. Next we saw an aggressive push higher which lasted into lunchtime. Buyers stalled just before last Friday’s close and price rolled over. By the close of the session we traded back down into the lower quadrant of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test lower. Look for buyers to defend 4122 and then a push to take out overnight high 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122 opening up a push down to 4139.50.

Hypo 3 Tuesday grind mode sets in, and we churn between 4150 and 4100 with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

08252015_NQ_VP

INSANITY

576 views

I run a renko chart for triggering entries into [and out of] Nasdaq futures. They are great charts because the candle print is based on movement in price not time. I usually run a 0.75 point bar, when pace picks up I switch to 1.5 pointers. Today I was running massive 3 point renkos and they were being machine gunned onto the chart all day long.

50 point unidirectional moves were the norm throughout the entire session.  A feather could push this market 7 handles. I got motion sickness by noon, ate a hammed burger (epic nausea remedy) by 2, and was in a catatonic trance from 3pm to close.

Today changed me. Every teevee I crossed was staring at me like a demonic robot. Phone calls came from relatives and friends. I only traded from about 10:15am-11am then had to stop. There were water puddles by my feet. I was full on losing it.

I bought American Apparel stock, WTF?

I will spend the evening regrouping. Sleep seems unlikely. I need to rebuild several of my charts before I can step back into the fray.

That’s all I can say. This environment is new to me. I am seeking the council of elders just as you should be. But remember: be skeptical of anyone wearing a suit, especially if they have an American Flag pinned to their lapel.

Rare Globex Session To Start Week [UPDATED PRICE LEVELS]

574 views

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week down over 200 points from Friday’s close. The overnight session has exceeded 3rd sigma stats on both range and volume meaning what we see here is an outlier-type event. Price trended lower for most of the session and is currently trading down into prices unseen since October 2014.

The economic calendar is busy this week, but today we have no economic events to consider.

Last week started with a strong up day, Tuesday marked time with a slight down drift, Wednesday was weak then pushed up to neutral and faded, Thursday and Friday we trended lower. We closed the week out trending lower, with price closing around session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for selling to continue. We may see buyers push into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers ahead of 4026 and continued selling. Downside targets include the 10/22/14 open gap at 3950 then the 10/20/2014 open gap at 3867.50.

Hypo 2 buyers step in hard. Push up through 4026. Look for sellers around 4073. If buyers can blow through here then a pole climb up to 4154.

Hypo 3 tight churn on the open with a slight downward skew.

Levels:08232015_NQ_VP_updated-levels

 

You Need To Hide

632 views

hideDANNY

Your life is on the line this week. Markets are running at high speed. This is reduce your position size and expect to take heat conditions. If you aren’t fully prepared to execute, it will be your limbs we sacrifice to cleanse the demons out of the Nasdaqs.

If we gap up into the week expect it to fade. If we gap down conditions are more ideal for a nice flush and flip. The weekly gap has been a solid fade for months. Of course, this time could be different. It sure looks different.

Exodus members, do you know I write a strategy session every week? And that it is included with your market intelligence software at no extra cost? We need to make sure you are reading this thing—it called the short for 4 consecutive weeks aka it nailed the correction. Anyhow, I just published the latest edition. Check it out.

As for the rest of you, expect your positions to be hunted by psychopathic “liquidity” algos wielding foot long kitchen knives.