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Joined Oct 26, 2011
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Models Neutralize Ahead of The Most Complicated Week of 2017

Greetings from deep in the West Indies!

Despite spotty internet access island-wide, the good scientists at iBankCoin laboratories managed to access our super computers nestled deep within the stable confines of the United States, from aboard MotherShip, virtually, and calibrate all systems and model scores ahead of what will be the most challenging week in 2017.  Here are the reasons why this third week of our third month under our new authoritarian regime is likely to be difficult for investors and how iBC labs expects markets to behave.

Friday is our first major option expiration of the year.  Not only will front month stock options expire, but also index futures.  While most active investors rolled forward to the June contracts last Thursday, there is still some activity taking place back on the March contract.  This means it is difficult to compile accurate volume information, and tools like cumulative delta can be skewed by large institutions moving their positions ahead to June.  It is by far the most frustrating week to trade, which is all the more reason to explore the tropics instead of trying to out compete the big boys.

Janet Yellen and her Fed are very likely going to lift their key borrowing rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.  For whatever reason, markets decided to price this in last week.  88.6% of traders down at the CME now believe the fed will hike during the March meeting, but two and a half weeks ago these same investors were in denial.  Not sure why the sudden change of heart, but we have been expecting a March hike for quite some time.   Regardless, this meeting is likely to stir up an otherwise docile index market, if only for a few hours.

Under the surface of strong broad indices, there has been serious carnage among several industry groups.  Exodus members, take a look at the 1-month performance of all industries, sorted to show the best and worst performances in order.  The beat downs have been far worse and encompassing than the rallies.  This likely means there is lots of worthless paper floating around as we head into option expiration.  This is likely to keep a lid on the market, at least through Friday.  This will allow Wall Street to rake some late/dumb money into their coffers.

The Russell 2000 gave up its attempted breakout.  The primary expectation after testing one side of value is to go test the other, which in this case is lower, and lower has a precarious, pocket-like, slippery look to it.  The Russell could get fast this week if it works down into the pocket, see below:

As for the upcoming week, the engineers and scientist at iBankCoin labs are issuing a neutral bias.  We have managed to gain a clear perspective from the island’s signal station after a long battle with the red coats.  The horizon is free of enemy ships, though our expectation is for the complications noted above to put a slow and steady bit of selling pressure on the tape until we hear from the Fed.

Matters are further complicated by the American’s daylight savings scheme where they arbitrary alter time in a bid to confuse everyone and also save candles.

Next week has all the markings of mayhem and confusion.  And while that may seem troubling, it may just blow past, allowing our impenetrable stock markets to continue shining, untarnished by significant down days because America is finally winning again.

Exodus members, the 122nd Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Attention: iBankCoin Labs Issues First Short Bias of 2017

Winter is back to ravaging the arctic northern plains.  Ambitious insects and birds, leaving the safety of their nests too soon, have seen their hearts ripped out by arctic spears to the center mass.  The human spirit is ebbing after an unexpected warm reprieve blew away.  Bulls have had a big drink from the sweet chalice of victory, enough to make casual onlookers begin to ask questions.  All these reasons, and the ones outlined below, are why iBankCoin Laboratory is issuing its first bearish bias of 2017.

The Snapchat IPO and Trump’s unifying speech to congress were enough to gain the attention of the people who are typically aloof when it comes to Wall Street.  Some are beginning to suspect “dumb money” is filtering back into the exchange.

Next week is roll forward, meaning on Thursday active traders will stop trading March index futures, and begin trading the June contract.  That means compiling accurate volume data from Thursday to next Friday is cumbersome without powerful resources–the type of resources often found on institutional desks.  It is a time ripe for shenanigans and loose movement, to catch the smaller traders flat footed.

Resident investigative journalist and internet digger ZeroPointNow discovered some Kek-like occurrences happening on the 4chan boards that foretell of market turmoil to come.

The NASDAQ Transportation index may have printed a failed auction last week.  It confirmed slightly, but another hard move lower would affirm the picture more, see below:

Most importantly, the IndexModel, a love child of auction theory and Exodus algorithms is signalling Rose Colored Sunglasses (RCS), a condition so diabolical, so intoxicating, that it often blinds the majority of investors from the erosion occurring under the surface of strong indices.

For all these reasons, for the blind loyalty to US markets, for the insolent desire for global warming, and the despicable migration of humans across the world, iBankCoin labs is issuing a short bias ahead of roll forward, ahead of the Ides of March, and with a bit of luck, ahead of the next negative news cycle.

Exodus members, inside the 121st Edition of Strategy Session, which is live now, we look closely at the decay and rot happening in the stock market, and also discuss what to look for in the upcoming week to add conviction to the short bias.

Go check it out!

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NASDAQ Lower into Friday; Week To End With A Little Talk from Yellen

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Wednesday/Thursday low overnight and tested the Tuesday high before settling into balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-manufacturing Composite at 10am, Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, and an economic outlook speech from Fed Chair Yellen at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Sellers engaged the market all morning and became initiative late in the afternoon.  They were unable to take out the Wednesday low during the regular session before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5365.25.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5345.50 to tag 5372.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5345.25 and target the open gap down at 5332 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5372.50 setting up a move to target 5380.75 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Norwegian Investor Sells Out of Marathon, Other Firms Tied To Dakota Access Pipeline

The biggest private investor in Norway sold all their shares in Phillips 66, Marathon Petro, and Enbridge, for a sum total of $34.8m USA dollars in hopes they could ‘make some sort of impact’ amid the Defund DAPL movement.  All three companies are partial owners of the pipeline which funnels tar sands out of Alberta, Canada and carries the sludge across critical U.S. rivers.

“We hope that our actions and the actions of other likeminded investors in either divesting or calling for an alternative [pipeline] route will make some sort of an impact,” said Matthew Smith, the head of Storebrand’s sustainability team.

Storebrand, the sustainable investment manager commanding $68 billion in assets announced their divestment Wednesday.

Let’s turn to the charts and see if their selling pressure has had an impact, shall we?

It’s difficult to say exactly when these sell orders hit the tape, but share of Marathon Oil have been struggling to reclaim the $17.50 resistance level.  A short vs about $20 actually makes sense here, especially considering the multi-year slide lower that began at the end of 2014.  Lots of overhead pressure on $MRO:

Enbridge (ticker: $ENB) saw an abnormal amount of volume coming into it during the first month of 2017, however so far it has held up.  You can see, however, that it has failed to regain its upper value.  Similar to $MRO, selling out, or betting short against the firm makes sense vs this resistance:

Phillips 66 seems the most resisliant of the pack.  Their shares have hardly budged.  Worth noting, $PSX also sports the largest market cap.  Big ship, small pipeline.  The price chart on PSX looks more based out then the rest and offers the least amount of evidence for justifying a sell:

While it’s unlikely the divesting efforts of private investors will succeed in stopping the Dakota Access Pipeline, a project Trump has endorsed that began under Obama, backed by Big Oil, their actions, along with the noise and protest of native people, are likely to make these fossil fuel titans think twice before beginning future projects.

Curbing the actions of these huge petro and coal companies is critical to saving humanity from the grotesque human impact on global warming.  Conscious investors are likely to earmark their funds for more progressive companies as the effects of our carelessness become more evident.

The decision to divest millions away from U.S. firms associated with the Dakota Access pipeline by Norway’s largest investor is setting up interesting context for betting against $MRO and $ENB.



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Investors Set To Strap Some Additional Gains onto The Trump Optimism Rally

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper mid of Wednesday’s trend up during balanced trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came in mixed.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price was gap up, nearly to new all-time highs and after a brief two-way open auction buyers began campaigning higher, searching for sellers up in the open air.  Toward the very end of the day, during settlement period, there was some responsive selling.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5393.75 and probe all time high 5400.  Look for price to continue exploring higher.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5384.75 then take out overnight low 5379.50.  Look for buyers down at 5375 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 5367.75 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Watch Tucker Carlson Stutter And Shake as Bill Nye Drops Global Warming Truth Bombs on Him

Just days after Bill Nye had a friendly Facebook Live chat with that nice old man Bernie Sanders, he was invited by Fox News to discuss Global Warming with their top hard ass, the uncouth Tucker Carlson.

Carlson did his best to derail the science man, but eventually was made to look like a total fool due to his lack of listening comprehension skills.  When asked to what degree humans are affecting the rate our planet is heating up, Bill Nye responds 100%.

Humans are 100% driving the rapid rate of warming on our planet and soon the majority of our population, domiciled on the scenic coasts of the world, will see their homes and families swallowed whole by oceanic tides.

When Carlson asks Nye what the world would look like if humans weren’t fossil fuel burning, cow manufacturing, ASSHOLES, Nye asserts the climate would be like it was in 1750.  Literally the best of times, with the British overlording much of the world in their red coats.

Bill Nye is blown away at one point, when Carlson demands that Bill Nye tell him, “when the next ice age would have happened without human impact,” as if that’s something any reasonable person could answer.

Then, being a wine man, no doubt a gentleman who enjoys a French Malbec, Nye uses grape growing conditions in Europe to demonstrate how rapidly our earth is changing.

Towards the end of interview, Tucker starts to squeak as he realizes he is dealing with a stone cold g, and that Bill Nye is enlightening the Fox News audience.  The Carlson melt down is a must see:

Soon the finest wines will likely grow from the tar pits of Alberta, Canada, American coasts will resemble some dystopian water land ruled by Kevin Costner, and the sun’s rays will literally melt the skin off your face.

Until then, you can count on good folks like Bill Nye to publicly eviscerate tough guys like Tucker Carlson with fact bombs to the eyeballs and groin.

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New Month Fund Flows, Trump Inspired Hope Press NASDAQ To New Highs

NASDAQ future are coming into Wednesday, March 1st gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price held the Tuesday mid, then just after midnight rallied hard and to new highs.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in well above last week, and at 8:30am Personal Spending data was mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Sellers emerged shortly after the open, then became initiate during the New York lunch hour.  Price worked down to about Monday’s midpoint before responsive buyers emerged and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze up through overnight high 5369.50 to tag 5375 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 5375 setting up a trend up.

Hypo 3 seller work into the overnight inventory, down to 5350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers push a full gap fill down to 5332 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Futures Calm as We Wrap Up February; Major Talk from Premier Trump on Deck

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last day of the second month under our new authoritarian regime flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper quadrant of Monday’s range on balanced trade.  At 8:30am GDP data was worse than expected, and at 9am the Case-Shiller Composite-20 data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, then a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Investors are likely to withhold major decisions, however, until after President Trump speaks to congress Tuesday night at 9pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price began the week gap down and after a brief spat of morning selling right down to last Friday’s naked volume point of control, buyers were back in control, slowly working price higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press higher, up through overnight high 5349.25 to tag 5354 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sustain trade above 5354 and probe all-time highs 5359.50.  Stretch target is 5375.

Hypo 3 press down through overnight low 5340.75 and trade down to about 5332.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation down to 5310.50.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Steers and Queers: Transgender Boy Wins Texas Girls’ Wrestling Title

Meet the 17-year old transgender wrestler who just went 56-0, laying waste to the entire 110-pound female wrestling class in Texas:

Mack was born a girl, but after several testosterone treatments and some re-identification she is now a boy.  But, down in stubborn Texas, they made him compete against girls because that’s what the birth certificate says, which is a classic hayseed argument.

He eviscerated all the girls, naturally.

ESPN has the full scoop:

CYPRESS, Texas — A 17-year-old transgender boy completed an undefeated season Saturday by winning a controversial Texas state girls’ wrestling title in an event clouded by criticism from those who believe the testosterone he’s taking as he transitions from female to male created an unfair advantage.

The family of Mack Beggs has said he would rather be wrestling boys, but state policy calls for students to wrestle against the gender listed on their birth certificates. So Beggs, a junior from Euless Trinity, beat Chelsea Sanchez 12-2 in the 110-pound weight class to improve to 56-0 and earn the championship.

Beggs fell to his knees for a moment after the win as a mixture of cheers and boos rained down on him. He then hugged his coach and left the mat.

These sex alterations are all very bullish for Under Armour, whose compression clothing helps to eliminate breasts, and can press a stubborn penis into a nice manjina.

It’s a brave new world, and RAUL commends and congratulates the efforts and success of Mr. Beggs.

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Watching Bill Nye and Bernie Sanders Explain Climate Change Facts on Facebook Is Your Job Today

If you only do one thing today, let it be watching that nice old man Bernie Sanders, who totally would have won the American President contest, host everyone’s favorite pop scientist Bill Nye for a conversation on Global Warming.

The fact-laden conversation goes down live, today, on Mark Zuckerberg’s devious platform, at 10:30am eastern.

If you only do two things today, let the second be to inform the biggest conservatard in your life that this live event is going to be lit (you may have to translate ‘lit’ to ‘a real sock hop’).  Perhaps it will trigger them so they can look like a dumb galoot over on Facebook.

Here’s a link to Uncle Bernie’s Facebook page, the venue for today’s free show:



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