Back To Vigilant Conditions

353 views

Mexico Vigilantes

This is exactly what I have been talking about. You can call it ‘luck of the Fed’ draw, but over the last 10 days we were working within the confines of a PPT oversold signal. I also generated auction data inside the Weekly Strategy Session which also made the case for higher price during the cycle.

But whenever operating outside the cycles, the market is much more erratic. It makes the case for day trading the index but puts some tension in place for multi month swing trading.  Moreover, the primary case it’s making is to drop the hammer when computer brains smarter then me say so, and spend the rest of the time sitting in the shade of a banana tree.  I have no desire to buy any stocks today.

The Russell looks the weakest today but on a relative basis the Nasdaq is leading lower on the week. What’s sketchy about the Nasdaq is we’re now down inside the slip zone from the Fed move meaning, we could slip slide right down it.

Meanwhile in stock land, my new positions are holding up well, so far, but damn, I picked this morning to meet with my tax man and wham, right back in the shit.

Nothing to it but to do it.

Side note – Exodus flagged Overbought on Twitter yesterday with a high degree of accuracy over a 2 day time frame.  For the for the short term trader, does it get any better than this!?  If you were in some weekly call options you were boss hog yesterday, but if you’re still long those bastard instruments right now you’re the castrated male bovine strapped to a wagon.

TWTR_03252015

A Sublime Auction of Unparalleled Beauty

546 views

I love how the Nasdaq is behaving up here. Hopefully showing you this action in real time has you thinking about the markets more like an auction.

This morning we envisioned 2 ways today’s profile would shape up as the day progressed. Here it is again:

NQ_MP_03242015

This morning we worked the orange profile (hypo 2 from this morning’s post) up through value and found responsive sellers on the top side of it. Per the Pelican Room (BTW nice work today Pelicanos) notes:

03242015_12361Notes

My day was essentially done at that point, but while eating a panini I took to Twitter to share the algorithmic Naz100 TICK occurrence that occurred and a way I have been trading it:

03242015_Twitter_Notes

The trade actually gave you a scale and likely a scratch at worst if you managed the long. If I was to take the trade it would only be a scalp because the market had already completed my expected upside progress (hypo 2).

When the market continued lower and especially when it took out opening swing low you could tell the seller meant business but again buyers managed to make some smooth moving counter rotations.

Their attempt from a neutral stance was valiant, but when VPOC shifted back down to 4438 when encouraged sellers to finish their unsettled business by filling that dirty gap below. Good form sellers, good form indeed.

Just a tick below this gap buyers defended though it was all rather predictable and lovely.

This is also day 11 after PPT flagged oversold—another completed cycle and bulls may now reenter the city walls to a reasonable parade, fanfare and libations.

Late last night I was granted access to The Exodus beta. Nearly the entire cloud-mountain is mine to explore before the general population arrives. It is one of the most invigorating experiences of my entire life. All I can say is get excited people.

Why Are We Talking?

421 views

snakeplissken

There’s a new president of the internet, the collective voice of the populace. Adored, respected, the Twitterati go about shaping the direction of global resources with succinct brevity. Therefore despite its heady valuation and premium pricing, it is without doubt I intend to hold equity in this company until it grows into its lanky body and sends share price much higher.

Smaller minds may start feeling ants crawling about their pants to book their gains. I have a whole new vision into stocks as of today. You see, I have been granted early access to Exodus. As a result my computing power has exponentially expanded, and my grasp of micro-drivers is becoming dangerously acute.

On the market front, as long as The [Kurt] Russell continues to comport itself like a leader, its behooves you to take a few steps up the risk ladder.

More Slow Play at The Nasdaq

334 views

This morning promises to be a choppy one. After a sedentary session yesterday, price and value have settled into a stable pocket with a well-established distribution both above and below our current area. Please, see more clearly what I mean below where I have marked the key reference points and a two visual hypotheses:

NQ_MP_03242015

Adding tinder to the potential for a choppy open is the sexy world of economic releases. CPI (Feb, YoY) was out at 8:30am and firmed up more than expected leading to rate hike talk. Price initial pushed lower by has since gone unchanged off the data. Several more data will spatter out this morning including House Price Index at 9am, Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and New Home Sales at 10am.

Heading into today, my primary hypo is sellers work down into overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4431.25 and do their best to fill the gap down to 4424.50 and target the NVPOC at 4422.25 before finding responsive buyers.

Hypo 2 is buyers defend around 4438.50 (overnight gap fill) and push up through overnight high 4449.75 and continue on to work the value area high of the upper distribution around 4457-4460.

Hypo 3 is a strong drive higher up through VAH 4460 and a gap fill up to 4472.50.

Levels highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03242015

Today Changes Nothing

548 views

The First Commandment This Week is Thou Shall Not Chase

The biggest mistake to make in this environment is chasing a move after it happens. But you also have to avoid putting risk on before anyone else is interested in playing along. It is sort of like being a small girl testing beds and porridge inside a bear den.

Seek out the weak baby cub and take its food and shelter.

Today changes nothing. If anything it makes me MOAR boolish. A big piece of my weekend strategy was oil strength early in the week. So I can check that off the list.

This afternoon selling in the Nasdaq reminds me of the boogie man. The intentions are to generate fear.   People who behave out of fear go down a path of self destruction.

This takes me back to this week’s First Commandment. Chasing is the result of peer pressure. Your friends have jumped from a bridge and are now celebrating with aggressive fist pumping and pelvic thrusts in your direction. You’re afraid they will abandon you if you don’t join in their stupidity, so you take a leap of faith. This was never your idea and you realize it just before you smack the water. Perhaps it’s bad luck but more likely by bad form you hit a low spot and your knees come completely through your body and replace your arms. Your arms have been blown off and are now floating away, and all your friends can offer is solace in the form of fist bumps to your foot-hands.

You cannot survive trading without qualifying ideas on your own. Sloth is a sure journey to insolvency.

I see you pumped and faded my CHGG call and guess what guy?  I don’t care. This is a longer term bet that lazy college students will go hard on Chegg’s services. Plus we all know higher education is the greatest bubble of all time, so how in Sam Hill tranation can this go wrong?

THIS WILL BE A LONG WEEK

355 views

Statistically speaking, this week is no longer in duration than any other. However, by process of super computers running 1000s of hours of probabilities and research, one can draw the conclusion we are in for a grind haus.

In these conditions it is imperative you take care to not overly tighten risk. On the flip side, chasing a move in either direction will likely result in your receiving a swift castration.

If you’re working options, this means making sure your momo pocket is heating up before putting the bacon in the skillet.

I am exercising my right to expand my timeframe a bit, and since I love small caps so much, all I have done today is buy a metric butt load of CHGG common stock. Risk is well out of the way so feel free to go hunt it, bastard internet algos.

It takes every piece of self control I’ve got to not stomp my foot to the floor long here. Instead I will eat this elephant one bite at a time.

Back on Top

347 views

Nasdaq futures are starting the week flat after rallying last week. The overnight session printed normal volume and range but did manage to take out Friday’s session low a few times before bouncing back to unchanged.

The economic calendar is quiet stateside today with Existing Home Sales at 10am as well as Fed’s Williams talking economic outlook. At 1:15pm attention will be on the European Union where Chancellor Merkel is meeting with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras for talks on Greece. They are meeting in Berlin.

Turning our attention to the charts we can see how the Nasdaq went gap up through a prior well-established value area. Price worked higher for much of Friday’s session before finding responsive sellers 1-tick ahead of closing the gap dating back to March 1st at 4472.50.

4444 serves as a helpful pivot point especially if sellers decide to work into the below gap zone today. Please see below:
ValueArea_IntTerm_Reentry_03222015

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction inside Friday’s range followed by a push higher to target overnight high 4461.25. If buyers sustain trade above 4459 then look for a push to new swing high 4477.

Hypo 2 is sellers contain trade below 4448.25 and work down into the gap zone below to target overnight low 4439, Thursday’s range gap 4432.50 and a full gap fill to 4424.50. The ultimate target of this hypo is tagging the NVPOC at 4422.25.

Hypo 3 is aggressive selling takes us down through the NVPOC at 4417 and begins working down into the Fed rally. Look for signs of responsive buying down at 4400 but be cautious of a full take back down to 4355.25.

I have highlighted key market profile zones below:

NQ_MP_03222015

SHOUT OUT TO ALL THE SHORTIES

597 views

With winter behind us and conditions still brisk in the north, I have that strong sense of optimism that comes with the return of sunshine.

Almost overnight moods have shifted and skirts have returned to the walking streets of towns and universities.

Meanwhile in the land of stocks, our supreme overlords at the Fed have surgically removed a toxic piece of minutia sending bulls into a feeding frenzy. Yes, the bulls resemble salmon, and yes, salmon is a bear’s favorite meal. But with the currents at our backs it makes catching us a most difficult endeavor. Perhaps the eagle is better equipped to land a meal.

WSS subs, who are without question cut from the finest cloth, I couldn’t help myself—I spent like 10 hours creating this week’s strategy session. There was a contract roll forward requiring 100s of price levels to be manually adjusted *shakes fist at Multicharts* and some key events I wanted to highlight. I hope you enjoy.

Outsiders, public school kids of the world, I am brewing up something fun for you, but in the meantime why not treat yourself to this week’s strategy session?

LET IT BE KNOWN HENCEFORTH

806 views

decreeThis is my formal declaration that the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has undergone a major breakout, and I am of the opinion it goes much, much higher.

My reasons are technical so here’s a chart:

RUT_MajorBreakout_1_03212015

WSS subs, I will provide more color on this topic to you tomorrow.

 

You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feelin’

620 views

These markets can turn a nice guy into a jaded urchin. Most who try their hand at active management are relegated to role of barnacle, affixed to rocks, watching dolphins swim about devouring chicken of the sea. The barnacle instead suckles on little ocean floaties until it dies of starvation or human intervention.

Option expiration has a funny way of sorting the wheat from the chaff because mankind makes important financial decisions about four times a year. A trader’s marks are now subject to draconian judgment by the collective owners of risk capital.

In many cases it’s your own money at risk. You need to decide if your resources are properly focused. What trade type worked? What were the conditions?

I need to be able to justify every trade with a plan and a story. The story is what I think the market is trying to do and what hypothesis best fits that desire. The plan is using specific entry qualifications and trade management.

Then there’s risk…but alas it’s Friday and you want to get “turnt up”.  That’s a Wednesday kind of topic.

People, we are in transitory times. Soon watches will replace doctors. Cats will live gluten free organic lifestyles. Human life expectancy will stretch to 150 years. Are you on the right road?

Back To Vigilant Conditions

353 views

Mexico Vigilantes

This is exactly what I have been talking about. You can call it ‘luck of the Fed’ draw, but over the last 10 days we were working within the confines of a PPT oversold signal. I also generated auction data inside the Weekly Strategy Session which also made the case for higher price during the cycle.

But whenever operating outside the cycles, the market is much more erratic. It makes the case for day trading the index but puts some tension in place for multi month swing trading.  Moreover, the primary case it’s making is to drop the hammer when computer brains smarter then me say so, and spend the rest of the time sitting in the shade of a banana tree.  I have no desire to buy any stocks today.

The Russell looks the weakest today but on a relative basis the Nasdaq is leading lower on the week. What’s sketchy about the Nasdaq is we’re now down inside the slip zone from the Fed move meaning, we could slip slide right down it.

Meanwhile in stock land, my new positions are holding up well, so far, but damn, I picked this morning to meet with my tax man and wham, right back in the shit.

Nothing to it but to do it.

Side note – Exodus flagged Overbought on Twitter yesterday with a high degree of accuracy over a 2 day time frame.  For the for the short term trader, does it get any better than this!?  If you were in some weekly call options you were boss hog yesterday, but if you’re still long those bastard instruments right now you’re the castrated male bovine strapped to a wagon.

TWTR_03252015

A Sublime Auction of Unparalleled Beauty

546 views

I love how the Nasdaq is behaving up here. Hopefully showing you this action in real time has you thinking about the markets more like an auction.

This morning we envisioned 2 ways today’s profile would shape up as the day progressed. Here it is again:

NQ_MP_03242015

This morning we worked the orange profile (hypo 2 from this morning’s post) up through value and found responsive sellers on the top side of it. Per the Pelican Room (BTW nice work today Pelicanos) notes:

03242015_12361Notes

My day was essentially done at that point, but while eating a panini I took to Twitter to share the algorithmic Naz100 TICK occurrence that occurred and a way I have been trading it:

03242015_Twitter_Notes

The trade actually gave you a scale and likely a scratch at worst if you managed the long. If I was to take the trade it would only be a scalp because the market had already completed my expected upside progress (hypo 2).

When the market continued lower and especially when it took out opening swing low you could tell the seller meant business but again buyers managed to make some smooth moving counter rotations.

Their attempt from a neutral stance was valiant, but when VPOC shifted back down to 4438 when encouraged sellers to finish their unsettled business by filling that dirty gap below. Good form sellers, good form indeed.

Just a tick below this gap buyers defended though it was all rather predictable and lovely.

This is also day 11 after PPT flagged oversold—another completed cycle and bulls may now reenter the city walls to a reasonable parade, fanfare and libations.

Late last night I was granted access to The Exodus beta. Nearly the entire cloud-mountain is mine to explore before the general population arrives. It is one of the most invigorating experiences of my entire life. All I can say is get excited people.

Why Are We Talking?

421 views

snakeplissken

There’s a new president of the internet, the collective voice of the populace. Adored, respected, the Twitterati go about shaping the direction of global resources with succinct brevity. Therefore despite its heady valuation and premium pricing, it is without doubt I intend to hold equity in this company until it grows into its lanky body and sends share price much higher.

Smaller minds may start feeling ants crawling about their pants to book their gains. I have a whole new vision into stocks as of today. You see, I have been granted early access to Exodus. As a result my computing power has exponentially expanded, and my grasp of micro-drivers is becoming dangerously acute.

On the market front, as long as The [Kurt] Russell continues to comport itself like a leader, its behooves you to take a few steps up the risk ladder.

More Slow Play at The Nasdaq

334 views

This morning promises to be a choppy one. After a sedentary session yesterday, price and value have settled into a stable pocket with a well-established distribution both above and below our current area. Please, see more clearly what I mean below where I have marked the key reference points and a two visual hypotheses:

NQ_MP_03242015

Adding tinder to the potential for a choppy open is the sexy world of economic releases. CPI (Feb, YoY) was out at 8:30am and firmed up more than expected leading to rate hike talk. Price initial pushed lower by has since gone unchanged off the data. Several more data will spatter out this morning including House Price Index at 9am, Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and New Home Sales at 10am.

Heading into today, my primary hypo is sellers work down into overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4431.25 and do their best to fill the gap down to 4424.50 and target the NVPOC at 4422.25 before finding responsive buyers.

Hypo 2 is buyers defend around 4438.50 (overnight gap fill) and push up through overnight high 4449.75 and continue on to work the value area high of the upper distribution around 4457-4460.

Hypo 3 is a strong drive higher up through VAH 4460 and a gap fill up to 4472.50.

Levels highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03242015

Today Changes Nothing

548 views

The First Commandment This Week is Thou Shall Not Chase

The biggest mistake to make in this environment is chasing a move after it happens. But you also have to avoid putting risk on before anyone else is interested in playing along. It is sort of like being a small girl testing beds and porridge inside a bear den.

Seek out the weak baby cub and take its food and shelter.

Today changes nothing. If anything it makes me MOAR boolish. A big piece of my weekend strategy was oil strength early in the week. So I can check that off the list.

This afternoon selling in the Nasdaq reminds me of the boogie man. The intentions are to generate fear.   People who behave out of fear go down a path of self destruction.

This takes me back to this week’s First Commandment. Chasing is the result of peer pressure. Your friends have jumped from a bridge and are now celebrating with aggressive fist pumping and pelvic thrusts in your direction. You’re afraid they will abandon you if you don’t join in their stupidity, so you take a leap of faith. This was never your idea and you realize it just before you smack the water. Perhaps it’s bad luck but more likely by bad form you hit a low spot and your knees come completely through your body and replace your arms. Your arms have been blown off and are now floating away, and all your friends can offer is solace in the form of fist bumps to your foot-hands.

You cannot survive trading without qualifying ideas on your own. Sloth is a sure journey to insolvency.

I see you pumped and faded my CHGG call and guess what guy?  I don’t care. This is a longer term bet that lazy college students will go hard on Chegg’s services. Plus we all know higher education is the greatest bubble of all time, so how in Sam Hill tranation can this go wrong?

THIS WILL BE A LONG WEEK

355 views

Statistically speaking, this week is no longer in duration than any other. However, by process of super computers running 1000s of hours of probabilities and research, one can draw the conclusion we are in for a grind haus.

In these conditions it is imperative you take care to not overly tighten risk. On the flip side, chasing a move in either direction will likely result in your receiving a swift castration.

If you’re working options, this means making sure your momo pocket is heating up before putting the bacon in the skillet.

I am exercising my right to expand my timeframe a bit, and since I love small caps so much, all I have done today is buy a metric butt load of CHGG common stock. Risk is well out of the way so feel free to go hunt it, bastard internet algos.

It takes every piece of self control I’ve got to not stomp my foot to the floor long here. Instead I will eat this elephant one bite at a time.

Back on Top

347 views

Nasdaq futures are starting the week flat after rallying last week. The overnight session printed normal volume and range but did manage to take out Friday’s session low a few times before bouncing back to unchanged.

The economic calendar is quiet stateside today with Existing Home Sales at 10am as well as Fed’s Williams talking economic outlook. At 1:15pm attention will be on the European Union where Chancellor Merkel is meeting with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras for talks on Greece. They are meeting in Berlin.

Turning our attention to the charts we can see how the Nasdaq went gap up through a prior well-established value area. Price worked higher for much of Friday’s session before finding responsive sellers 1-tick ahead of closing the gap dating back to March 1st at 4472.50.

4444 serves as a helpful pivot point especially if sellers decide to work into the below gap zone today. Please see below:
ValueArea_IntTerm_Reentry_03222015

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for an open auction inside Friday’s range followed by a push higher to target overnight high 4461.25. If buyers sustain trade above 4459 then look for a push to new swing high 4477.

Hypo 2 is sellers contain trade below 4448.25 and work down into the gap zone below to target overnight low 4439, Thursday’s range gap 4432.50 and a full gap fill to 4424.50. The ultimate target of this hypo is tagging the NVPOC at 4422.25.

Hypo 3 is aggressive selling takes us down through the NVPOC at 4417 and begins working down into the Fed rally. Look for signs of responsive buying down at 4400 but be cautious of a full take back down to 4355.25.

I have highlighted key market profile zones below:

NQ_MP_03222015

SHOUT OUT TO ALL THE SHORTIES

597 views

With winter behind us and conditions still brisk in the north, I have that strong sense of optimism that comes with the return of sunshine.

Almost overnight moods have shifted and skirts have returned to the walking streets of towns and universities.

Meanwhile in the land of stocks, our supreme overlords at the Fed have surgically removed a toxic piece of minutia sending bulls into a feeding frenzy. Yes, the bulls resemble salmon, and yes, salmon is a bear’s favorite meal. But with the currents at our backs it makes catching us a most difficult endeavor. Perhaps the eagle is better equipped to land a meal.

WSS subs, who are without question cut from the finest cloth, I couldn’t help myself—I spent like 10 hours creating this week’s strategy session. There was a contract roll forward requiring 100s of price levels to be manually adjusted *shakes fist at Multicharts* and some key events I wanted to highlight. I hope you enjoy.

Outsiders, public school kids of the world, I am brewing up something fun for you, but in the meantime why not treat yourself to this week’s strategy session?

LET IT BE KNOWN HENCEFORTH

806 views

decreeThis is my formal declaration that the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has undergone a major breakout, and I am of the opinion it goes much, much higher.

My reasons are technical so here’s a chart:

RUT_MajorBreakout_1_03212015

WSS subs, I will provide more color on this topic to you tomorrow.

 

You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feelin’

620 views

These markets can turn a nice guy into a jaded urchin. Most who try their hand at active management are relegated to role of barnacle, affixed to rocks, watching dolphins swim about devouring chicken of the sea. The barnacle instead suckles on little ocean floaties until it dies of starvation or human intervention.

Option expiration has a funny way of sorting the wheat from the chaff because mankind makes important financial decisions about four times a year. A trader’s marks are now subject to draconian judgment by the collective owners of risk capital.

In many cases it’s your own money at risk. You need to decide if your resources are properly focused. What trade type worked? What were the conditions?

I need to be able to justify every trade with a plan and a story. The story is what I think the market is trying to do and what hypothesis best fits that desire. The plan is using specific entry qualifications and trade management.

Then there’s risk…but alas it’s Friday and you want to get “turnt up”.  That’s a Wednesday kind of topic.

People, we are in transitory times. Soon watches will replace doctors. Cats will live gluten free organic lifestyles. Human life expectancy will stretch to 150 years. Are you on the right road?