Day After A Trend Day

235 views

Nasdaq futures are up on abnormal volume and managed to print an abnormal 2nd sigma range as well. The globex session managed to print out a low by about 6pm eastern time and spent the rest of the session trading higher. Around Europe open it began trading lower but found initiative buyers around 4417.

The economic calendar is quiet today and the market is more likely to take its cues from natural order flow, earnings, and macro currents.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt a gap fill. If they can close the range gap (4417) they might have a chance at it. However, early on I expect buyers to defend ahead of 4417 and make a push to take out overnight high 4441.

Hypo 2 is buyers drive off the open, squeezing higher to target the HVN at 4450.75 before finding responsive sellers and 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is a full gap fill down to 4407.25 and a break of overnight low 4402.75. This may lead to a liquidation especially if trade goes below 4396.50.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_04212015

Chasing Ambulances

348 views

In my latest quest to stack paper I am doing the dastard deed of buying into the pump. The idea, in essence, is that your absolute best performing stocks are undergoing some draconian pump campaign wherein the first is paid fat, the middle can extort some juice, and the last is stuck holding the bag.

Being first requires monk-like patience to sit through several consolidations and hope the gods bless you with a mind-bending surge of order flow. Being in the middle requires little—a quality bit of software perhaps. To be last you must cast objectivity aside and fully embrace hubris which will have you imagining all the moneys you’d make if your perverted fantasies play out. LOL

As long as the Russell does the money dance (holds onto its breakout), I am of the school of thought this uncomfortable means of earning a buck will flourish.

In other news, the Nasdaq did in fact close the gap bears cracked open Friday morning. That gap has been filled with all the trimmings of a Thanksgiving dinner.

If bulls can sustain 4396.50 it’s going to be a long-A week for shorts.

Tomorrow Some of You Get Cut

293 views

Any stock who doesn’t make money tomorrow is being fed to my dogs. There is no reason (outside of pathetic earnings) a company should be down verse their Friday close come Tuesday afternoon—nein! Such underperformance firmly places said stocks in camp loser where they can enjoy bouncing around and listening to drum circles for all I care.

It is your job, low float micro crapper, to outperform the bastard indices, by a factor of 10. Is that so much for a reasonable speculator to ask?

Also, please, may we have another analyst initiate bullish coverage of Ari-BABA? I think one more might put a bid in this demented China-laggard.

The longer we sit up here, the more buyers are going to gain confidence to trade up to 4414.25 (Thursday gap fill).

Nasdaq Starting The Week High

249 views

Range is a touch above first sigma overnight on normal volume as we head into a fresh week. Friday the market opened to a pro gap down and the selling continued throughout most the session. By about 2:30pm however we formed a decent looking excess low and the auction showed early signs of changing direction.

Yesterday the Chinese announced a reduction to their reserve ratio. It led to choppy trade in Shanghai but has seen a favorable reaction in US markets. The economic calendar is quiet today. At 8:30am we had Chicago Fed National Activity which did not generate a reaction from the market. At 9:45 there are some details coming out of the ECB regarding their QE purchases.

Morgan Stanley is trading higher in the pre-market after reporting earnings and after the close attention will be on Big Blue (IBM) as they report their first quarter results.

We are currently set to open inside the fast liquidation zone from Friday. Opening in this thin zone and the fact we are at much different prices then Friday’s close mean we are likely to see other time frame active on the open.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test down to 4355. From here I will look for buyers to come in and work higher for the session, targeting 4388.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers push off the open and find responsive selling up near 4388.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is sellers work down through overnight now 4348.75 and continue to 4339.75 before finding responsive buying.

Hypo 4 is a drive higher, up through 4390 with a stretch target of 4406.75.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MarketProfile_04202015

A Fierce Sun Will Rise Come Monday

376 views

mariosun

For westerners, the week hasn’t even started. But news from the orient already has participants buzzing. Several sources are reporting the Chinese have cut their reserve ratio. These actions prove they give zero shits about the rapid advance of their stocked market because the growth isn’t fast enough.

It’s difficult to say what the ramifications of these actions will be. However, I laid the groundwork in this week’s strategy session that will allow me to filter out the noise and focus on a few distinct puzzle pieces as a tell.

Moreover, these actions tell a story about what needs to be done in the United States. We need more QE. Our economic superiority depends on it. At the least, this action should give participants in the ‘liftoff’ camp a major reason to reconsider timeline.

 

Egalitarian Conditions Are Normal

478 views

Welcome to the two way market, it’s pretty great if you respect some form of mean revision.

Everyone sleeps on your boy Raul. Perhaps I am not clear enough at times. Maybe it’s these esoteric charts and words putting readers asleep. Maybe the fragmented nature of my existence is confusing for the slow internet types. You would prefer it all be more clear, totally fair.

Aside—thank you Weekly Strategy Session subs. You may not know it, but your contributions fuel insightful research into how the markets tick. I’m grateful for your pittance, for it raised the stakes on my data-keeping skills.

In return you guys, all of you guys (even the public school kids), will know when the data senses a raid on the horizon.

To be honest, you were better served reading the blog than the Strategy Session this week, because I did not fully embrace what the data was saying until after Monday’s giving up the open drive (which “should not” happen).

There’s a lot of day left and no sign of buyers yet. I have no idea what next week will bring, but come Sunday I will so throw a few bucks in the vending machine and grab the latest edition of Weekly Strategy Session.

Pro Gap Down

323 views

Nasdaq futures are lower overnight. Reports of widespread failure by Bloomberg Terminals may be at least partially to blame for the selling which accelerated around 5am. One may think volume would be low if participants were without data, however quite the contrary, volume was elevated to second sigma as was the range.

CPI data came in lower than expected and so far we have not seen any reaction in price. At 10am The primary read of U of Michigan data is out.   The primary read has often been a source of fast intraday Nasdaq moves. Also at 10am we have Leading Indicators and at 1pm energy traders will keep an eye on the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday we printed an neutral day, the second neutral day in a row. Price settled right in the middle of the range however, which was unlike Wednesday’s neutral extreme day. Now, given the context of Wednesday’s neutral extreme, it is likely the initiative buyers seen Wednesday will be underwater due to this morning’s developments. Whether they can make a strong and aggressive responsive buy today will be telling. If not, we may see liquidation take hold.

Headed into today, we are priced to open on the low end of Tuesday’s range. The naked VPOC just above at 4386.25 is likely to attract price, as is the overnight gap up to 4414.25. However, today we are dealing with a pro gap, thus it will take significantly more resources to fill.

My primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4386.25 before finding sellers attempt to work down to the overnight low but struggle to take out 4363 and find responsive buying. Two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2, sellers gap and go lower, taking out 4363 early on and trigger a liquidation move down to 4337.

Hypo 3, strong buyers off the open work up to the range gap 4401 before finding responsive sellers who defend the range and churn us back down to 4386.25.

Hypo 4 full gap fill up to 4414.25 then a run for overnight high 4417.50 with a stretch target of the NVPOC at 4435.25.

Levels:

NQ_MP_04172015

Why Are We Up Here?

358 views

Go ahead and take comfort in the gentle markets. This is unbelievable. Conditions look good and stocks are behaving well.

Today the Nasdaq did almost everything a well functioning market would do. Primarily it gave the nearest volume pocket a thorough discourse consisting of assessing the quality of the terrain and deeming it fair footing for buyers to sellers to orderly come together and facilitate trade amongst one another. Anyone who made a transaction today was welcomed to tea sandwiches and soda water on their way out.

Bears and bulls discussed the current events over cigars afterwards and the nearby steakhouse was made busy with folks dressed in business professional attire.

Fine. But that doesn’t create the lower prices I need to ease back in, so here I sit and brood.

Ladies and Gentlemen of The Jury

287 views

Only one short year ago, at this same tax deadline juncture, markets were in ultra extreme turmoil [sic]. Hundreds of thousands of puts were being accumulated each day, VIX was elevated, and more stocks were hitting 52 week lows then highs. It had a different feel. It felt like a sweet opportunity to go long.

This year everyone is cavorting about town with rose colored sunglasses on. They admire the neighbor’s wife while stuffing their faces full of barbecued meats. The collective life of man is in a state of gluttonous bliss, drunk on the spoils of speculation.

Despite my bearish demeanor and willingness to pen it upon the finest internet quarters the world has to offer, I have no intention of proselytizing the bulls. Bulls have done well. The wind is on their buns. Also to clarify, I am mostly long. However, I am not as long as I was on Monday, and I want to be, slowly, from lower.

Working The Gap

230 views

Nasdaq futures are down overnight on an elevated range and normal volume. Price managed to exceed yesterday’s RTH high by 2-ticks before falling back through the entire daily range.

Pre-market we had Initial/Continuing jobless claims data which was mixed and Housing Starts which came in lower than expected. At 10am the Philadelphia Fed data is out and at 10:30am Natural Gas storage.

Yesterday we printed a neutral-extreme up day after the range extension down was quickly rejected and buyers put together an afternoon rally. The profile left behind had a pronounced pocket from 4417.25 – 4411.75. I would expect this area to trade fast on a revisit and afterward we’re likely to spend some time filling it out.

Heading into today we are set to open on the low end of yesterday’s range. My primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt at gap fill. If they can trade up through 4411.75 they likely don’t see much friction on their quest to 4421.50. Then I will look for 2-way trade chop to ensue.

Hypo 2 is sellers defend the volume pocket and start working lower to target 4386.25 then choppy conditions.

Hypo 3 is buyers push the gap fill and continue on to take out the overnight high 4429.50 and target the NVPOC at 4435.

Hypo 4 sellers take out 4380 before finding a responsive bid.

Levels:

NQ_MP_04162015

Day After A Trend Day

235 views

Nasdaq futures are up on abnormal volume and managed to print an abnormal 2nd sigma range as well. The globex session managed to print out a low by about 6pm eastern time and spent the rest of the session trading higher. Around Europe open it began trading lower but found initiative buyers around 4417.

The economic calendar is quiet today and the market is more likely to take its cues from natural order flow, earnings, and macro currents.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt a gap fill. If they can close the range gap (4417) they might have a chance at it. However, early on I expect buyers to defend ahead of 4417 and make a push to take out overnight high 4441.

Hypo 2 is buyers drive off the open, squeezing higher to target the HVN at 4450.75 before finding responsive sellers and 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is a full gap fill down to 4407.25 and a break of overnight low 4402.75. This may lead to a liquidation especially if trade goes below 4396.50.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_04212015

Chasing Ambulances

348 views

In my latest quest to stack paper I am doing the dastard deed of buying into the pump. The idea, in essence, is that your absolute best performing stocks are undergoing some draconian pump campaign wherein the first is paid fat, the middle can extort some juice, and the last is stuck holding the bag.

Being first requires monk-like patience to sit through several consolidations and hope the gods bless you with a mind-bending surge of order flow. Being in the middle requires little—a quality bit of software perhaps. To be last you must cast objectivity aside and fully embrace hubris which will have you imagining all the moneys you’d make if your perverted fantasies play out. LOL

As long as the Russell does the money dance (holds onto its breakout), I am of the school of thought this uncomfortable means of earning a buck will flourish.

In other news, the Nasdaq did in fact close the gap bears cracked open Friday morning. That gap has been filled with all the trimmings of a Thanksgiving dinner.

If bulls can sustain 4396.50 it’s going to be a long-A week for shorts.

Tomorrow Some of You Get Cut

293 views

Any stock who doesn’t make money tomorrow is being fed to my dogs. There is no reason (outside of pathetic earnings) a company should be down verse their Friday close come Tuesday afternoon—nein! Such underperformance firmly places said stocks in camp loser where they can enjoy bouncing around and listening to drum circles for all I care.

It is your job, low float micro crapper, to outperform the bastard indices, by a factor of 10. Is that so much for a reasonable speculator to ask?

Also, please, may we have another analyst initiate bullish coverage of Ari-BABA? I think one more might put a bid in this demented China-laggard.

The longer we sit up here, the more buyers are going to gain confidence to trade up to 4414.25 (Thursday gap fill).

Nasdaq Starting The Week High

249 views

Range is a touch above first sigma overnight on normal volume as we head into a fresh week. Friday the market opened to a pro gap down and the selling continued throughout most the session. By about 2:30pm however we formed a decent looking excess low and the auction showed early signs of changing direction.

Yesterday the Chinese announced a reduction to their reserve ratio. It led to choppy trade in Shanghai but has seen a favorable reaction in US markets. The economic calendar is quiet today. At 8:30am we had Chicago Fed National Activity which did not generate a reaction from the market. At 9:45 there are some details coming out of the ECB regarding their QE purchases.

Morgan Stanley is trading higher in the pre-market after reporting earnings and after the close attention will be on Big Blue (IBM) as they report their first quarter results.

We are currently set to open inside the fast liquidation zone from Friday. Opening in this thin zone and the fact we are at much different prices then Friday’s close mean we are likely to see other time frame active on the open.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test down to 4355. From here I will look for buyers to come in and work higher for the session, targeting 4388.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers push off the open and find responsive selling up near 4388.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is sellers work down through overnight now 4348.75 and continue to 4339.75 before finding responsive buying.

Hypo 4 is a drive higher, up through 4390 with a stretch target of 4406.75.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MarketProfile_04202015

A Fierce Sun Will Rise Come Monday

376 views

mariosun

For westerners, the week hasn’t even started. But news from the orient already has participants buzzing. Several sources are reporting the Chinese have cut their reserve ratio. These actions prove they give zero shits about the rapid advance of their stocked market because the growth isn’t fast enough.

It’s difficult to say what the ramifications of these actions will be. However, I laid the groundwork in this week’s strategy session that will allow me to filter out the noise and focus on a few distinct puzzle pieces as a tell.

Moreover, these actions tell a story about what needs to be done in the United States. We need more QE. Our economic superiority depends on it. At the least, this action should give participants in the ‘liftoff’ camp a major reason to reconsider timeline.

 

Egalitarian Conditions Are Normal

478 views

Welcome to the two way market, it’s pretty great if you respect some form of mean revision.

Everyone sleeps on your boy Raul. Perhaps I am not clear enough at times. Maybe it’s these esoteric charts and words putting readers asleep. Maybe the fragmented nature of my existence is confusing for the slow internet types. You would prefer it all be more clear, totally fair.

Aside—thank you Weekly Strategy Session subs. You may not know it, but your contributions fuel insightful research into how the markets tick. I’m grateful for your pittance, for it raised the stakes on my data-keeping skills.

In return you guys, all of you guys (even the public school kids), will know when the data senses a raid on the horizon.

To be honest, you were better served reading the blog than the Strategy Session this week, because I did not fully embrace what the data was saying until after Monday’s giving up the open drive (which “should not” happen).

There’s a lot of day left and no sign of buyers yet. I have no idea what next week will bring, but come Sunday I will so throw a few bucks in the vending machine and grab the latest edition of Weekly Strategy Session.

Pro Gap Down

323 views

Nasdaq futures are lower overnight. Reports of widespread failure by Bloomberg Terminals may be at least partially to blame for the selling which accelerated around 5am. One may think volume would be low if participants were without data, however quite the contrary, volume was elevated to second sigma as was the range.

CPI data came in lower than expected and so far we have not seen any reaction in price. At 10am The primary read of U of Michigan data is out.   The primary read has often been a source of fast intraday Nasdaq moves. Also at 10am we have Leading Indicators and at 1pm energy traders will keep an eye on the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday we printed an neutral day, the second neutral day in a row. Price settled right in the middle of the range however, which was unlike Wednesday’s neutral extreme day. Now, given the context of Wednesday’s neutral extreme, it is likely the initiative buyers seen Wednesday will be underwater due to this morning’s developments. Whether they can make a strong and aggressive responsive buy today will be telling. If not, we may see liquidation take hold.

Headed into today, we are priced to open on the low end of Tuesday’s range. The naked VPOC just above at 4386.25 is likely to attract price, as is the overnight gap up to 4414.25. However, today we are dealing with a pro gap, thus it will take significantly more resources to fill.

My primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4386.25 before finding sellers attempt to work down to the overnight low but struggle to take out 4363 and find responsive buying. Two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2, sellers gap and go lower, taking out 4363 early on and trigger a liquidation move down to 4337.

Hypo 3, strong buyers off the open work up to the range gap 4401 before finding responsive sellers who defend the range and churn us back down to 4386.25.

Hypo 4 full gap fill up to 4414.25 then a run for overnight high 4417.50 with a stretch target of the NVPOC at 4435.25.

Levels:

NQ_MP_04172015

Why Are We Up Here?

358 views

Go ahead and take comfort in the gentle markets. This is unbelievable. Conditions look good and stocks are behaving well.

Today the Nasdaq did almost everything a well functioning market would do. Primarily it gave the nearest volume pocket a thorough discourse consisting of assessing the quality of the terrain and deeming it fair footing for buyers to sellers to orderly come together and facilitate trade amongst one another. Anyone who made a transaction today was welcomed to tea sandwiches and soda water on their way out.

Bears and bulls discussed the current events over cigars afterwards and the nearby steakhouse was made busy with folks dressed in business professional attire.

Fine. But that doesn’t create the lower prices I need to ease back in, so here I sit and brood.

Ladies and Gentlemen of The Jury

287 views

Only one short year ago, at this same tax deadline juncture, markets were in ultra extreme turmoil [sic]. Hundreds of thousands of puts were being accumulated each day, VIX was elevated, and more stocks were hitting 52 week lows then highs. It had a different feel. It felt like a sweet opportunity to go long.

This year everyone is cavorting about town with rose colored sunglasses on. They admire the neighbor’s wife while stuffing their faces full of barbecued meats. The collective life of man is in a state of gluttonous bliss, drunk on the spoils of speculation.

Despite my bearish demeanor and willingness to pen it upon the finest internet quarters the world has to offer, I have no intention of proselytizing the bulls. Bulls have done well. The wind is on their buns. Also to clarify, I am mostly long. However, I am not as long as I was on Monday, and I want to be, slowly, from lower.

Working The Gap

230 views

Nasdaq futures are down overnight on an elevated range and normal volume. Price managed to exceed yesterday’s RTH high by 2-ticks before falling back through the entire daily range.

Pre-market we had Initial/Continuing jobless claims data which was mixed and Housing Starts which came in lower than expected. At 10am the Philadelphia Fed data is out and at 10:30am Natural Gas storage.

Yesterday we printed a neutral-extreme up day after the range extension down was quickly rejected and buyers put together an afternoon rally. The profile left behind had a pronounced pocket from 4417.25 – 4411.75. I would expect this area to trade fast on a revisit and afterward we’re likely to spend some time filling it out.

Heading into today we are set to open on the low end of yesterday’s range. My primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt at gap fill. If they can trade up through 4411.75 they likely don’t see much friction on their quest to 4421.50. Then I will look for 2-way trade chop to ensue.

Hypo 2 is sellers defend the volume pocket and start working lower to target 4386.25 then choppy conditions.

Hypo 3 is buyers push the gap fill and continue on to take out the overnight high 4429.50 and target the NVPOC at 4435.

Hypo 4 sellers take out 4380 before finding a responsive bid.

Levels:

NQ_MP_04162015