When you have a key piece of market profile context, a model if you will, and you use it as part of a forecast, this is a process. There are many other processes and plans, but market profile is mine. Without me it is useless, but together we are effective and helpful for navigating the markets.
There is a big element of luck in trading. Professionals might claim otherwise, but for as much skill as the activity requires, it also benefits from the hand you are dealt. I have always found the harder I work, the luckier I am. Staying humble and accepting that you can only focus on the process and be happy no matter the outcome is the core mindset needed for trading. Today China juiced the markets, tomorrow the Fed might yank more juice than we expect, this is the flop, if you will.
If you do your job well and lose money, you can still be happy with yourself. Periodically, check the numbers, and make changes to your methodology. This should always be done outside of market hours otherwise you are likely to be swayed by emotions and pulled many different directions.
When the markets become fast traders have a tendency to break rules. When they break rules they lose money, when the lose more money than they intended they either are knocked out of the game or put on tilt. You need to work on yourself more than you need to work on understanding the latest indicator or macro correlation. Take trades, keep good stats and recording, learn, adjust, and keep taking action.
All of that said, here we are. We knew intermediate term balance had not been breached, and why should it BEFORE all the major news comes out? Then we had this beautiful long liquidation profile yesterday, a temporary phenomenon of order flow, temporary. These words are chosen very carefully when communicating with you, finest people of the interwebs. Patrons of iBankCoin, I humbly submit my actions to you today: nothing, a nap.
It took every bone in my body to restrain from buying this morning, just as it took many of those same bones to grin and bear yesterday’s furnace of losses. I can look at my performance over these last two days with a big ear-to-ear, wondering if in fact R.Kelly will make a proper appearance before Friday.
That is all.
Godspeed and kisses,