Saturday, December 10, 2016
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,757 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Extends Rally into Tuesday


NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Monday midpoint before working toward Monday’s high as we approach the open.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was worse than expected.  The data yielded no market reaction.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Factory and Durable Goods Orders at 10am followed by both a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  We started the week gap up and despite a hard sell to start the session, buyers managed to reject a move back into last Friday’s range.  Instead we drove higher, deep into the move made last Thursday (trend day) before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4780.75.  Look for a move down through overnight low 4772.75 then responsive buyers down at 4752.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through Monday high 4795.75 triggering a rally up to the open gap at 4821.50.  Look for sellers up at 4826.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4750 triggering a liquidation down to the weekly gap at 4738.25.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Tesla Motors Rallies Off Key Support Level; JAT Capital Bullish on CNBC


Tesla shares are up +3% Monday after coming into the week at a key support level.  Fueling the move, aside from natural order flow, is commentary from JAT Capital who said they are long America’s Greatest Technology Company during a CNBC appearance.

Despite male hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson, who is a full fledged Hillbot, taking a bearish stance on Tesla, and despite a 150 card slideshow from @Markbspiegel littered with news clippings of piecemeal competition lingering deep in the pipeline, the $150-175 price zone has been a wall:


Also of bullish note, Trip Chowdhry was out Monday with observations on Tesla after his recent factory checks.  Chowdhry reaffirmed his $385.00 price target and issued the following talking points:

Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry says that Tesla will easily reach its Q4 delivery goals.

“Tesla can easily deliver 25,000 Tesla vehicles in 4Q’2016 – the demand continues to outstrip the production,” Chowdhry explains.

Following Global Equities regular factory checks, Chowdhry expects a 50 percent Model S and 50 percent Model X production mix for Tesla in Q4. He believes this mix will be favorable for average selling price (ASP) on the quarter.

In addition, Chowdhry estimates that more that 90 percent of recent Model S shipments had the glass roof option and 60 percent had the AutoPilot 2.0 option, both of which are good news for ASP.

He reports that recent Tesla delivery truck activity “seemed more than 2X vs. last year.”

In Q4 2015, Tesla produced 14,037 vehicles.

Everything, including the droves of naysayers, points to good times for Elon (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) and his electric future company Tesla Motors as we head into 2017.

Never underestimate the value of being a first market mover.  The old guard is chasing while the scientists and engineers at Tesla play offense.

Also, the rumor going around Detroit is that right-side drive Tesla production needs to ramp up 10x.  Developing…

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NASDAQ Launches Higher on Extreme Overnight Session

A police officer fires tear gas during clashes in Rome, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2010. Outside parliament, thousands of demonstrators marched, smashed shop windows, destroyed bank ATMs and set at least three vehicles on fire. At one point they even entered a bank, prompting staffers to try to barricade themselves inside. Police fired tear gas as the protesters neared Berlusconi's residence. Premier Silvio Berlusconi won back-to-back votes of confidence in the Italian parliament Tuesday to survive one of the toughest tests of his political life. But he was left with a razor-thin majority that will make it hard for him to govern effectively. (AP Photo/Pier Paolo Cito)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price worked down into the 11/14 range before finding a strong responsive bid and trading up into last Thursday’s trend down.

The economic agenda is light to start the first full week of December.  At 11:30am we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week the NASDAQ was under pressure while the Dow worked higher:12042016_indexperf

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  Price poked just below the Thursday low before revealing a strong responsive bidder.  However, said buyers were unable to press a range extension ahead of the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Friday’s high 4759 which sets up a move to take out overnight high 4776.75 to target 4786.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers regain Friday range and close the gap down to 4736.25 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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DENIED: President Obama Halts DAPL Project, $ETP Could Be in Trouble


The water protectors who stood up against Energy Transfer Partners (ticker: ETP) and their evil pipeline plans are claiming victory Sunday evening after the Army Corps of Engineers denied the final permits needed for the Dakota Access Pipeline.

The Standing Rock Sioux tribe championed protests which brought awareness to the sketchy oil pipe designed to run underneath the Missouri river.  At a time when many parts of the country are enduring the effects of drought, Dakota Access turned into a flashpoint in the anti-fossil fuel movement.


For whatever reason, many people see the halting of DAPL as a victory against President-elect Trump.  They think he has a major stake in the success of the pipeline despite their precious Snopes fact-checkers saying the claim is “Unproven”.


The possibility that our billionaire-businessman-turned-President may have a few shares of ETP kicking around in one of his portfolios has prompted our most special snowflakes to tweet out idiotic anti-Trump fodder like:

Overall, this was a victory against evil and the continuous narrative coming from most media outlets is, “if it’s evil, Trump is behind it” despite everyone knowing that all evil originates and thrives in the halls of the DNC.

Protestors are claiming victory tonight but many plan to continue staying on site—convinced the soulless machines could resume building despite Federal orders to halt.  Protestors feel their work is not done until the front line is liberated.

Keep an eye on ETP shares heading into next week.  A move below $32 likely triggers a fast move down to $25 before buyers reemerge.


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This Week Is All About Transports and The Dow


Good day to you, honorable patron of iBankCoin.  The results are in from Sunday spent in the furnace room of iBankCoin labs where data is forged into actionable materials.

The most interesting development since last week comes from the NASDASQ Transportation index, which is within range of all-time highs:


In 2015-2016 markets, when a prior swing high is taken out, we reverse hard and lower, really obliterating the ‘breakout’ traders.  If/when we exceed this prior high, it is best you keep an eye on how this little corner of the market behaves going forward.

Otherwise it looks like business as usual.  Tech is under pressure and the Dow is living in a microcosm.  Let’s see if it continues through next week.

Distinguished members of Exodus, the 108th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Strong Non-farm Payroll Data Emboldens Investors: They Bought The Dip


NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Thursday low before finding a bid ahead of the 11/14 open gap.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected:

USA Unemployment Rate for Nov 4.60% vs 4.90% Est; Prior 4.90%
USA Non-farm Payrolls for Nov 178.0K vs 175.0K Est; Prior 161.0K

Third reaction yielded a buy signal off the data.

The only other economic event today is Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Price opened gap down and drove lower.  The selling lasted all session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4707.25 to target the open gap at 4695.25.  Look for buyers down at 4694.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4738.50 and trade up to 4760 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers reverse Thursday, leaving a globex swing low behind, trade all the way up to the Wednesday gap 4808.25 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Facebook Destroyed, Tech Dismantled as Fire and Brimstone Rain Down on The NASDAQ Exchange


The NASDAQ printed its second consecutive trend down Thursday as the final month of 2016 gets underway.

A broad swath of tech names were lower including Facebook which was down nearly -3% after Citi desk commentary highlighted 3 items potentially impacting the stock:

  1. Crowded Tech/Internet favorites and high beta names continue to unwind today
  2. Boutique research firm was out w/ negative data points yesterday (forecasting a deceleration in North American and European revenue growth, but estimates are in-line with the Street.
  3. Hearing mgmt has been out marketing last couple of days, but no takeaways yet.

Starbucks was doing fine all day but is being pillaged after hours on news that CEO Howard Schulz will step down (again).  Since he came back once and save the company, and since they made the fatal error of doubling down on their growth scheme in China, investors are dumping shares like tea party hooligans.  BEARISH EXTREMELY BEARISH for Starbucks.


The entire healthcare sector is in shambles as investors begin to accept and digest the outcome of American PresidentThe sector is down nearly -2% to start December with the biggest losses coming in DRUGS…the industry riddled with schemers gaming Obamacare for big time bucks.


All of this mayhem, and more, started surfacing yesterday, we talked about the hows and whys (NASDAQ/RUSSELL leading lower, methodical nature of order flow, etc.) in this post and how it was likely to continue into today and Friday.

My conviction is even stronger, for weakness that is exasperated by Nonfarm Payroll to resolve in a rather horror show Friday for all you post-holiday gluttons to chew on.

 In summary, and with a modicum of joy for the return of volatility, NASDAQ and its components tell a tale of worse before better.

Bearish through the weekend then DEVELOPING…


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December Trading Is Underway; Here’s Everything You Need To Know About The NASDAQ


NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, December 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Wednesday low and tagged the composite VPOC before settling into balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data were out but investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s Nonfarm payroll reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

According to Exodus December is historically a positive month for the NASDAQ (per the QQQ ETF) however the average return of +0.92% includes 10 years of down months and only 7 years where it went higher.  Likely skewing the data is 1999 when the QQQ returned 24.32% in full, dot com bubble glory.


Yesterday we printed a trend down.  After opening slight gap up sellers pressed hard into the tape early on and continued selling throughout the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4805 to tag the 4800 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling works down to 4768.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 4827.50 to target 4829.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up into the Wednesday trend down, trading up to the midpoint around 4852.50 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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First Methodical Sale of the NASDAQ Since Election


There was a hard sell two days after Trump won President but it was a knee-jerk, algorithmic type move.  Otherwise we’ve rallied.

However, in what has become a popular pastime in American market lore, exceeding the most recent swing high introduced a strong seller.  This is the case again Wednesday on the NASDAQ exchange.

It happened inside my two favorite Fibonacci extensions, which I use to gauge whether a breakout is real or just a stop hunter:


The selling that came in today was methodical, resting then cutting through local levels*.  It was initiative in nature, meaning the higher time frame continued to engage the NASDAQ throughout the day via their sell orders.

*market profile levels on any morning report are examples of local levels

Meanwhile, over at the Dow Jones, sellers could not regain Tuesday’s range.  Also the Russell is at its Exodus Strategy Session bracket low–a demarcation line that grades my algo and also draws a proverbial do or die for whether a week ends up being range-bound or something bigger.

If these sort of conversations and observations seem logical to you, and an objective way to assess and engage the markets, it may make sense for you to sign up for Option Addict’s upcoming bootcamp.  He’s proficient in these matters and has a knack for presenting them in understandable ways and you can ask him whatever you want.

I sort of just do, ya feel?

The resilience is coming from the S&P and Dow while our riskier Russell and NASDAQ potentially lead lower.

First of the month action could be fast to the downside.  If it does accelerate, look for any Non-farm payroll data to be used to exacerbate the action.  Same goes if we rally hard into NFP, look for the Friday morning data to stoke the rally.

If we are flatish heading into the data–then use it to gauge direction into Friday and the weekend and may GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR SOUL.


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The Turkey Rally Continues: Hump Day NASDAQ Roundup


NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Tuesday midpoint on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out well below last week’s reading.  Then at 8:15am ADP Employmenty data was stronger than expected, and at 8:30am Personal Consumption Expenditure data was inline with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Option Addict noted a longer-term technical pattern that he perceives as bullish via past observation.  Click here to check it out!

Yesterday we formed a double distribution trend up before falling back down to the lower distribution by market close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a more to take out overnight high 4885.50and continue higher to 4891 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through Tuesday high 4897.75 to target the 4900 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4917.75 and 4931.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4868.25 and target 4866.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers work down to 4856.75 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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