Monday, May 2, 2016
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,386 Blog Posts

News People Love Twitter; Wall Street Not So Much


Twitter reported earnings after the bell and the stock is lower by about 10%

They reported 83% of monthly active users [MAU] are mobile.  Therefore you are probably mobile, reading this now.

Q2 guidance call for revenues from $590-610M verses an estimate of $677.6M.  The soft forecast is likely driving the move after hours.  Non-GAAP EPS came in slightly better than estimates, $0.15 vs $0.10 estimate, while on a GAAP basis the company’s loss per share was -$0.12.  Accountants, figure that one out.  Or don’t.

Everyone sees Twitter as a buyout play at this point.  But nobody wants to buy the misfit social media company.  Meanwhile every single news outlet and their underlying pundints love the service.  We scour it all day and night and in our sleep.  Finance guys love Twitter [more so StockTwits lately].  Everyone has exposure.  Maybe that’s the problem–no buyers left.

Irregardless [sic] we can all wait with baited breath for the company’s hipster CEO who is giving an interview to The CNBC, set to air first thing tomorrow morning.

Headline photo credit goes to @RampCapitalLLC.  If you do not already follow him on Twitter, do yourselves a favor and DO IT.

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NASDAQ Attempts Rally into Fed Rate Decision; at Risk of Stalling


NASDAQ futures are set to begin Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, up near last Friday’s high, before settling back into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in below expectations.  The initial reaction is a soft sale.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, 52- and 4-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price worked lower after an early spurt higher closed the overnight gap.  Just after going range extension down the NASDAQ printed a failed auction.  After a two-way dispute regarding the matter, responsive buyers stepped in and worked price back up through the daily range and closed out the market at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for two-way chop.  Look for an early move lower to close the overnight gap down to 4472.50. Sellers continue lower to take out overnight low 4467.50 before finding responsive buyers down at 4448.75 and two way trade ensuing.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4489.75 early on setting up a move to test 4493 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4489.75 then sustain trade above 4493 setting up a move to test the 4500 century mark.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Little Uptick in Volatility To Start The Week


NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on an elevated range.  Price held Friday’s low during a series of downward rotations last night before settling into balance.  The entire session was spent below last Friday’s range midpoint.

The economic calendar starts quiet this week, but has several major events toward the end.  For today we have New Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the NASDAQ diverged lower while the other indices worked higher.  The Russell 2000 in particular showed strength despite the heavy selling in the NASDAQ.  Last Friday saw the NASDAQ sharply lower during the morning session before finding a responsive bid ahead of the 04/12 low and closing the week out bouncing back toward the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work lower and take out overnight low 4436.  This sets up a test of Friday’s low 4431 which triggers a liquidation all the way down to 4402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4466.25 before finding responsive sellers and working lower to take out overnight low 4436 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4466.25 then continue working higher to take out overnight high 4479.75.  Look for buyers to continue probing higher, up to 4492.75 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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FOMC Rate Decision Coming Up: Nobody Expects a Hike


Yellen and her league of bankers have done a good job of talking down any likelihood of a rate hike this week.  30-day Fed Fund futures [say that 5 times fast] are pricing a 97.7% probability rates stay unchanged this Wednesday:


Nevertheless, market direction will be revealed after the 2pm announcement, like it always is, when the algos send an EKG pulse through the marketplace.  It’s like sonar.  It blasts out, reads the sea bed [resting orders] then determines direction for the next 2-4 days.  The more times you trade through it, the better you get at joining the winning team.

While we’re all at the mercy of our algorithmic overlords, there are still some subtle clues to glean from the financial complex before it all goes down.  I have highlighted those little nuances in this week’s Exodus Strategy session, which I just published.  It comes complimentary with our software, so members be sure to check it out!

Should a hike somehow be revealed, everyone will be crushed.  Their faith in the continuous dialogue coming from The Fed will be shattered.  Chaos will ensue–riots in the city center, bank runs, cats and dogs living in harmony!

But it probably won’t happen so enjoy a nice clamato on this springtime Sunday and chill baby, chill.

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NASDAQ Down A Quick 60 as Investors Weigh in on Tech Earnings


Time to call a spade a spade; Windows 10 is a disaster.  Microsoft has pressured users into upgrading through incessant popups for nearly a year because everyone is terrified to upgrade.  I called Microsoft and asked them if they would continue to support Windows 7 Ultimate, the greatest operating system of all time, because it’s what runs my charting and algo computer aka MOTHERSHIP.  Their rep actually told me NOT to upgrade.  It felt like I received a Presidential pardon.

Google parent Alphabet, which is super bullshit BTW, that we have to call Google ‘Alphabet’ like a bunch of kids in a schoolyard. I digress.  Google is down over $40 bucks and that is sending a chill down the spine of every bull in town.  Google never disappoints.


So what do tech investors have to hang their hat on?  Intel gutting their workforce?  AMD?!  LOL….AMD is the Bernie Sanders of the technology cadre.

See Also: Intel to Fire 12,000 Losers

The NASDAQ is your leader this week, that has been the call since Sunday, and the NASDAQ is trying for lower prices.  Your only hope, the NASDAQ’s only hope is Amazon–set to report next week.

They better kill it.


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Back Down in Lower Value After Google Earnings Rock The NASDAQ


NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price continued pushing lower early on, extending the downward reaction to Alphabet earnings before coming into balance.

The economic and earnings calendar is light today.  We have US Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price held upper value until the settlement period when the Microsoft and Google (Alphabet) earnings were released.  This information spiked price lower, putting the session into a neutral extreme print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to go down and take out overnight low.  From here look for a continued move down to test the lower boundary of value down at 4463.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher and take out overnight high 4501.75 setting up a move to 4515 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work up through the entire spike lower and target 4524.75 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Could Chyna’s Death Be a Bearish Omen?


Wrestling legend Chyna passes away, then the Shanghai index drops over 2% the next day.  Coincidence?

There are no signs Chyna intended to die, based on what police found inside her apartment — and she’d been deceased for at least a day … TMZ Sports has learned.

Law enforcement sources tell us there was no suicide note left in her Redondo Beach, CA home. We’re also told it appears the WWE legend had passed away a “day or two” prior to Wednesday evening … when a friend found her body. The last known contact she had with anyone happened on Sunday evening.

As we first reported … there were no illegal drugs, but officers did find legal prescription bottles. Our sources described the number of bottles as 3 or 4 … “nothing out of the ordinary.” Also, the bottles were not emptied.

We’re told several neighbors told investigators they suspected “overdose” as the cause of death since she’d seemed “under the influence” lately.

Source: TMZ Staff, TMZ

The Far East shivers when the Ninth Wonder of The World falls.  Stay sharp.


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Genetically Modified Mosquitoes Are Safe, But Test Them on Floridians Just In Case


There is a pervasive fear of genetically modified organisms.  It has plagued the scientists at Monsanto for years.  So, no surprise here, the people of Florida are freaking out over plans to release genetically-engineered mosquitoes down in Key West to combat the deadly viruses being spread by their indigenous mosquito population.  Intrexon shares [ticker: $XON] are down nearly 20% today after their plan to kill native mosquitoes was met with resistance by Florida residents.  Science scares people, but their fears are without merit.

First of all Oxitec, the United Kingdom company (a division of Intrexon) who created these mosquitoes to save us, already tested their super bugs in Brazil. The results were stunning:

In Brazil, in the wake of mounting concern over Zika, Oxitec has announced it is expanding a program to release genetically modified Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in Piracicaba, a city about 100 miles northwest of Sao Paulo.

The company breeds and releases into the wild male mosquitoes that don’t produce viable offspring. When females mate with the GMO males, they lay eggs that hatch but the larvae die before adulthood. Oxitec says trials conducted in Brazil and other countries over the past decade show releasing bioengineered male mosquitoes can reduce the wild Aedes aegypti population by 90 percent.

In Piracicaba, the company says trials that started in April have reduced wild mosquito larvae by 82 percent. Oxitec has signed an agreement with the city to build a new mosquito production facility in the city and expand the trials to cover an area with up to 60,000 residents.

Source: Greg Allen, NPR [LINK]

Second, these are blood-sucking killers we are dealing with.  Mosquitoes nearly thwarted attempts to build the Panama Canal.  Back then harsh fumigation techniques were enlisted, tactics much more hazardous to the environment then genetic warfare.

Also, Oxitec is keeping with the spirit of full disclosure via their website, where they discuss playing ball with the FDA, announce public meetings, and update everyone on their progress towards releasing their savior bugs into the neighborhoods of Florida.

Finally, the islands south of mainland Florida, the keys, present the perfect petri dish for testing these new organisms.  If something were to go horribly wrong, the ‘situation’ could be contained.  However, the pesky residents have already managed to gather over 10,000 signatures on a petition against the proposed GMO mosquito deployment.

See Also: Shares of $INO Surge Off Zika Drug Virus Data

While British scientists work around the clock to combat the vampire bugs that haunt humanity, Florida residents are doing their best to block any progress.  They are like sunburned tourists who refuse to use sunscreen because of the chemicals.  However, their resistance will likely be a minor speed bump for Oxitec, who will soon be driving unmarked vans through residential neighborhoods, wafting 1000s of GMO mosquitoes into the air.

Below, Florida resident says mosquitoes are “what makes Florida, Florida” and suggests the mosquito killing plan is just about making money:

ABC News reports on the matter:

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Alphabet and Microsoft Day Down at The NASDAQ


NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after a balanced overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to hold yesterday’s range through Globex.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in well below expectations.  Verizon is trading lower in pre after reporting inline sales continued EPS growth.

The bigger earning announcements, however, come after the bell when both Microsoft and Alphabet (aka Google) are set to report.  Also on the economic docket today we have House Price index at 9am and Leading Indicators at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and sellers pressed into it early on.  By 9:45am a responsive bid stepped in and the market worked higher but was unable to push up into the Tuesday morning liquidation drive.  Late in the session sellers came and knocked price back down to session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy session.  Look for buyers to work higher and take out overnight high 4549.50.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4526.  Look for responsive buyers just below the overnight low and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers become initiative below overnight low 4526 and continue working lower to test below Wednesday low 4515 and potentially below Tuesday low 4506.75.  Stretch target is open gap down at 4489.75.

Hypo 4 strong buying sustains trade above 4550 setting up a rally.  Stretch target is 4581.25.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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