That hot stream flowing down your shirt is the blood of dip buyers. There is a definite tonal shift in the marketplace and each attempt to buy the Nasdaq was met with an overwhelming supply of sellers. Someone knows something and is liquidating at every chance they see. This is panic selling, fund raising, flight to safety action.
But why the hell is everyone so scared? Is it the inflated multiples many stocks trade at? It could be. Is it quarter end re-balancing? Perhaps. Is it, “let’s have a nice entry point for Q4 so we can have a decent quarter and not lose all our investors?” Is it our newest puppet installation, Haider al-Abadi spouting off about an imminent subway attack (dick)? People are scared and it is showing up in risk asset prices, that is all you need to know.
Prices tend to overshoot, and one could make a reasonable argument that the intermediate term still barely hangs in balance. That however, depends on tomorrow. If we retrace some of this sell candle tomorrow only to see another strong sell day TOMORROW, then this intermediate term balance argument is officially toast. The sun, is going down, you dig?
Speaking of foods which coincidentally refer to my current condition, my nuts are on the proverbial chopping block after making some dip buys this morning. I joined the KORS trade, it held up splendidly amid this sell flow. I also bought NFLX. It’s performance was not quite as impressive and truth be told it was maleficent. It just sat there at the lows, brooding. Do you see how I can personify the price action of a stock with a taste of fear and negativity? It is very unhealthy for the trading psyche. I do it simply to entertain you. It is a narrow line I walk out here in the limelight. The truth is this stock does not care if you bought or sold it. It printed a b-shaped long liquidation profile, there were no afternoon sellers, this is all I can say with a reasonable amount of confidence. Perhaps my duality will prompt someone to deduce I am on the LSD today. Who knows what any of us truly have in store?
I suddenly feel like a rather brilliant risk manager from stopping out Visa and Nimble yesterday. See how that goddamn feeling didn’t get in my way too long? RISK, PLAN, LOGOs—these are your only real boulders.
If this game is about becoming really good at taking punches, then after 2014 I ought to be a regular Mohammad Ali. Here’s to keeping my limber mind. *clinks glasses*
Until tomorrow, vai con dios