Goldilocks Open

227 views

Bulls have to be careful. Every time they’ve launched an aggressive campaign early Monday morning they’ve been lashed by Tuesday and whacked with bamboo sticks by Wednesday.

This open so far is just right. Not too hot, not too cold. The slower, the better, IMO.

A Change in Pace

211 views

Nasdaq futures are price to open gap down to start the week. The last two Monday’s have stated gap up and pushed strength early only to reverse. Thus this week represents a fresh look to the markets. Volume and range are both normal on the globex session and overall market profile structure is ugly.

On the economic calendar we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am and an otherwise open schedule.

Friday we consolidated inside the upper quadrant of Thursday’s trend day. The session started strong, exceeding Thursday’s high and affirming the risk free nature of the trend day. However the session was a slow grind lower with no clear emerge of bulls.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory. Look for a push up to 4489.25 to close the overnight gap. If they can continue to exceed overnight high 4493.75 then look for a run to the 4500 century figure.

Hypo 2 is sellers push off the open and test below overnight low 4470.50. Look for buyers to defend 4458.50 and two way trade to ensue which might close the overnight gap up to 4489 but will stall ahead of 4493.75.

Hypo 3 is a push down through 4458.50 to target the composite HVN at 44550.

Hypo 4 we aggressive press higher, take out Friday’s high 4506.75 and target the gap up at 4515.50.

Levels:05182015_NQ_MarketProfile

Big Report This Week

300 views

Try as I might to compress everything that is setting up heading into this week, the Weekly Strategy Session still ended up being one of the longest ones yet.

There’s a ton of information both contextual and actionable that needs to be on your radar heading into the tail-end of May. Something I learned these last few years about the old saying, “Sell in May, go away.” is that often times it means to sell IN May aka during May.

There’s been a recurring behavior of strong Monday morning fizzled into weakness. Then each week bulls dig in and close out the week well. Last week they even threw in a conviction trend day. Boy do they need to defend it.

Otherwise it’s back through the range we go, full horror show.

There’s all sorts of subtle clues to which way we head this week and an exciting mid-week kicker, so why not pony up less then you paid for a shot of Patron last night to prepare yourself for the upcoming week?

TAKE A LOOK INSIDE THE Weekly Strategy Session.

EXODUS members – Can you believe The Fly gave me keys to the Exodus blog? Check out my piece in there. It’s on the art of turning dials and fiddling with knobs to hone into harmonic wins.

Fend Off The Fizzles

399 views

You can’t sit still and you certainly can’t lament if you hope to stand a chance in the competitive world of business. There will be challenges that smack you with impression, do not be blown off your feet by the wave. Instead take a step back and objectively observe it. What is this? What is its character?

Momentum is important. If you have any, even briefly, use it to your fullest advantage. Press it until nature insists otherwise.

Celebrate the victories, and the losses, taking solstice in your objectivity and execution.

Most things are beyond your control. Will yourself into accepting external events and channel your energy toward that which you are the master, your thoughts, and sometimes you can shape the republic.

Today was a catatonic version of hypo 2 which is how the day after trend days typically play out—in the upper quad. It did not produce fireworks, it appears those will be saved for later in the summertime.

I’m constructive in these conditions. It would take a Texas sized hole opening up, spilling millions of Zenu’s caged demons upon to earth.

I’d like to say I’m off to guzzle down a cocktail of drugs procured from GNC to aid in my quest to squeeze barbells into pancakes. BUT I’M NOT, DAMMIT. I have other more pressing matters to attend to.

Have a good juan

Day After A Trend Day

319 views

Nasdaq futures spent the overnight session slowly drifting higher and did so on normal range and volume. One structural element currently stands out on the session, a weak high, seen clearly on the market profile as a double TPO print and an overall lopsided bell structure.

Today is the most action packed day of the week from an economic announcement standpoint. At 9:15am Industrial Production data is out followed by The May Preliminary reading of the U of Michigan Confidence number. The preliminary reading has recently been a successful number in generating a reaction from the market. Energy traders will be watching the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and at the close we have Net Long-Term Tic Flows.

Yesterday price opened pro gap up, above the prior day’s range and had an open auction that we briefly tested below before the market went one time frame up. The result was a trend day print. Market profile theory states any entry in the direction of a trend is a risk free entry into the following session. Therefore, expectation is for price to exceed the trend day high by at least a tick.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory. I expect some choppiness before 10am’s data. Look for buyers to defend north of 4493 and then work to take out the weak overnight high at 4507.50 to target 4517.25 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we push down into the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day, taking out overnight low 4488 and looking for responsive buyers ahead of 4480 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3, gap and go higher, take out 4517.25 early and sustain trade above 4520, setting up a secondary leg up to 4538.75.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_05152015

That There’s a Trend Day Bob

345 views

It isn’t often you can use the Dow Jones Industrial Average as your tell. Then again what’s in a tell anyhow? It needs to be actionable, that makes it valuable.

Like Exodus insisting Facebook was a buy at $78 at giving lots of cold dead data points as evidence.

But let’s segue into auction theory, try not to leap from your seat in excitement. Today is a trend day on the Nasdaqs and as long as we close upper quad it has confirmation. You can tell it’s a trend day because it left behind several bell curves on the volume profile, thoroughly auctioning each price on the way up, bringing value with it. The theory states that any entry during a trend day is a “risk free” entry into the following session, meaning, that odds are high we exceed today’s session high (if only by a tick) in the following session.

That might not mean much to you, but in the parlance of tomorrow being god forsaken option expiration day, I do say, quite boldly, it is reason to believe I will indeed see fireworks tomorrow.

Like forty dollar moves in Priceline and other high ticket stocks.

I intend to see the river card, pants down, middle finger up, sitting atop two cases of Coors light high speed bullet cans.

Fair Markets

240 views

Nasdaq is set to open pro gap as we head into Thursday. The overnight session features 44 point of range so far, nearly 2nd sigma which is 46.75 points. That tells us the session was quite abnormal, and on the borderline of being different than 95% of all overnight sessions over the last three years.

Volume behind the move is light, in typically upward fashion, currently within the threshold of normal.

We heard the initial/continuing jobless claims at 8:30am and so relatively little reaction to the data point. The only other economic event scheduled for today is the EIA Natural Gas Storage data at 10:30am.

The Nasdaq is auctioning in a methodical manner. Tuesday’s big gap lower was faded. We found responsive buyers Tuesday and spent the rest of the session trading higher. Yesterday we opened gap up and spent the entire session slowly working the gap fill lower. Today’s gap up is on the professional variety but still at risk of being filled. Conversely, there I an open gap up at 4476.25 which may entice the market upward. Overall the market has been an objective mechanism of price discovery all week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory. There’s a big HVN at 4450 that might behave like a magnet once markets open. I will look for buyers to defend north of 4440 to set up a move to fill the gap up to 4476.25.

Hypo 2 is gap and go higher, push up to 4476.25 and find sellers who defend the 05/04 range.

Hypo 3 sellers push down though 4440 and sustain, setting up a fill of the overnight gap to 4424.25.

Hypo 4 bulls sustain trade above 4476.25 to target the NVPOC at 4489. Stretch target is 4493.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_05142015

Perfect Action To Cause Complacency

378 views

They are boiling the frogs ever so gently this week, 2 degrees per minute, you can set you watch to it. It seems less a market of sellers and more a market without buyers, but doing a fair job advertising lower prices.

Just some tinder here, one tally whacker who breaks the code of silence to turn on risk and the whole market will turn into a firework display. I patiently wait for my judgment, be it tossed into a bottomless pit or cased beer and fireworks.

Gap Hunter

324 views

Nasdaq futures are up a touch as we head into cash open. The index spent most of the evening trading up following yesterday’s strong reactive buying. Range overnight managed to press 2nd sigma while volume stayed compressed into its normal range.

On the economic calendar we saw Advance Retail Sales at 8:30am which solicited a choppy but ultimately sideway reaction. We also have Business Inventories at 10am and Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am.

Going back to the charts, yesterday we opened pro gap down and drove lower from the opening bell. The range was enough to expand volatility for a third week. It also managed to fill last Thursday’s pre NFP gap. The auction ultimately stalled out and found responsive buyers. We then worked higher to close the overnight gap up to 4431. A few attempts were made to reenter Monday’s range but ultimately we traded lower into the bell as the market was tasked with absorbing a heavy amount of supply in the final hour and a half of trade.

Heading into today, we are priced to open on the high-end of yesterday’s range. My primary expectation is for seller to push into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4420.50 to close the overnight gap. This market has demonstrated a strong proclivity to close gaps lately so it might as well continue doing so. From there sellers may continue pushing to 4416 where I will look for signs of buyers and then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push off the open to take out overnight high 4447.75 to target 4455.50 where sellers come in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers take out 4455.50-4457.75 and continue higher to target the open gap up at 4476.25.

Hypo 4 breakdown below 4416.25-4412 opening us up to trade down to 4395.50.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_05132015

Embracing The Uphill Battle

314 views

Have I caught you just before a meeting? Ok listen to me anyway. Everything you see is a lie—parlor tricks created to fleece you of your hard earned dollars. You work hard, don’t you? Yes? Well let me do you a favor.

Throw away your books. They collect dust and crowd what should be a paperless modern lifestyle. Better yet, burn them. Make them into carbon like a palm oil farmer in the Serengeti. Books are only to be used as weights, for building big ass muscles, to attract a mate with comparable muscle mass, or MOAR.

Then start trading the Nasdaqs with your homie. Then, when the blood suckers go after your book of stocks, you can scrape back their take.

Terrorist sell robots came into the financial complex and gobbled up the NFP rally while good Americans were sleeping. America had to spend all damn day beating said robots back with a Louisville slugger, bear Jew style, only to yet again find more sellers back inside Monday’s range.

Meanwhile, another earthquake, tick-tock mates, hit. Soon a hole to the center of the earth will open and spewing from it will be perverts from Zillow who breathe on you and stroke your hair with their greasy hands.

In short, hells breaking loose so I should probably go lift heavy objects up and down until I swell as wide as a door jam.

Goldilocks Open

227 views

Bulls have to be careful. Every time they’ve launched an aggressive campaign early Monday morning they’ve been lashed by Tuesday and whacked with bamboo sticks by Wednesday.

This open so far is just right. Not too hot, not too cold. The slower, the better, IMO.

A Change in Pace

211 views

Nasdaq futures are price to open gap down to start the week. The last two Monday’s have stated gap up and pushed strength early only to reverse. Thus this week represents a fresh look to the markets. Volume and range are both normal on the globex session and overall market profile structure is ugly.

On the economic calendar we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am and an otherwise open schedule.

Friday we consolidated inside the upper quadrant of Thursday’s trend day. The session started strong, exceeding Thursday’s high and affirming the risk free nature of the trend day. However the session was a slow grind lower with no clear emerge of bulls.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory. Look for a push up to 4489.25 to close the overnight gap. If they can continue to exceed overnight high 4493.75 then look for a run to the 4500 century figure.

Hypo 2 is sellers push off the open and test below overnight low 4470.50. Look for buyers to defend 4458.50 and two way trade to ensue which might close the overnight gap up to 4489 but will stall ahead of 4493.75.

Hypo 3 is a push down through 4458.50 to target the composite HVN at 44550.

Hypo 4 we aggressive press higher, take out Friday’s high 4506.75 and target the gap up at 4515.50.

Levels:05182015_NQ_MarketProfile

Big Report This Week

300 views

Try as I might to compress everything that is setting up heading into this week, the Weekly Strategy Session still ended up being one of the longest ones yet.

There’s a ton of information both contextual and actionable that needs to be on your radar heading into the tail-end of May. Something I learned these last few years about the old saying, “Sell in May, go away.” is that often times it means to sell IN May aka during May.

There’s been a recurring behavior of strong Monday morning fizzled into weakness. Then each week bulls dig in and close out the week well. Last week they even threw in a conviction trend day. Boy do they need to defend it.

Otherwise it’s back through the range we go, full horror show.

There’s all sorts of subtle clues to which way we head this week and an exciting mid-week kicker, so why not pony up less then you paid for a shot of Patron last night to prepare yourself for the upcoming week?

TAKE A LOOK INSIDE THE Weekly Strategy Session.

EXODUS members – Can you believe The Fly gave me keys to the Exodus blog? Check out my piece in there. It’s on the art of turning dials and fiddling with knobs to hone into harmonic wins.

Fend Off The Fizzles

399 views

You can’t sit still and you certainly can’t lament if you hope to stand a chance in the competitive world of business. There will be challenges that smack you with impression, do not be blown off your feet by the wave. Instead take a step back and objectively observe it. What is this? What is its character?

Momentum is important. If you have any, even briefly, use it to your fullest advantage. Press it until nature insists otherwise.

Celebrate the victories, and the losses, taking solstice in your objectivity and execution.

Most things are beyond your control. Will yourself into accepting external events and channel your energy toward that which you are the master, your thoughts, and sometimes you can shape the republic.

Today was a catatonic version of hypo 2 which is how the day after trend days typically play out—in the upper quad. It did not produce fireworks, it appears those will be saved for later in the summertime.

I’m constructive in these conditions. It would take a Texas sized hole opening up, spilling millions of Zenu’s caged demons upon to earth.

I’d like to say I’m off to guzzle down a cocktail of drugs procured from GNC to aid in my quest to squeeze barbells into pancakes. BUT I’M NOT, DAMMIT. I have other more pressing matters to attend to.

Have a good juan

Day After A Trend Day

319 views

Nasdaq futures spent the overnight session slowly drifting higher and did so on normal range and volume. One structural element currently stands out on the session, a weak high, seen clearly on the market profile as a double TPO print and an overall lopsided bell structure.

Today is the most action packed day of the week from an economic announcement standpoint. At 9:15am Industrial Production data is out followed by The May Preliminary reading of the U of Michigan Confidence number. The preliminary reading has recently been a successful number in generating a reaction from the market. Energy traders will be watching the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and at the close we have Net Long-Term Tic Flows.

Yesterday price opened pro gap up, above the prior day’s range and had an open auction that we briefly tested below before the market went one time frame up. The result was a trend day print. Market profile theory states any entry in the direction of a trend is a risk free entry into the following session. Therefore, expectation is for price to exceed the trend day high by at least a tick.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory. I expect some choppiness before 10am’s data. Look for buyers to defend north of 4493 and then work to take out the weak overnight high at 4507.50 to target 4517.25 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we push down into the upper quad of yesterday’s trend day, taking out overnight low 4488 and looking for responsive buyers ahead of 4480 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3, gap and go higher, take out 4517.25 early and sustain trade above 4520, setting up a secondary leg up to 4538.75.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_05152015

That There’s a Trend Day Bob

345 views

It isn’t often you can use the Dow Jones Industrial Average as your tell. Then again what’s in a tell anyhow? It needs to be actionable, that makes it valuable.

Like Exodus insisting Facebook was a buy at $78 at giving lots of cold dead data points as evidence.

But let’s segue into auction theory, try not to leap from your seat in excitement. Today is a trend day on the Nasdaqs and as long as we close upper quad it has confirmation. You can tell it’s a trend day because it left behind several bell curves on the volume profile, thoroughly auctioning each price on the way up, bringing value with it. The theory states that any entry during a trend day is a “risk free” entry into the following session, meaning, that odds are high we exceed today’s session high (if only by a tick) in the following session.

That might not mean much to you, but in the parlance of tomorrow being god forsaken option expiration day, I do say, quite boldly, it is reason to believe I will indeed see fireworks tomorrow.

Like forty dollar moves in Priceline and other high ticket stocks.

I intend to see the river card, pants down, middle finger up, sitting atop two cases of Coors light high speed bullet cans.

Fair Markets

240 views

Nasdaq is set to open pro gap as we head into Thursday. The overnight session features 44 point of range so far, nearly 2nd sigma which is 46.75 points. That tells us the session was quite abnormal, and on the borderline of being different than 95% of all overnight sessions over the last three years.

Volume behind the move is light, in typically upward fashion, currently within the threshold of normal.

We heard the initial/continuing jobless claims at 8:30am and so relatively little reaction to the data point. The only other economic event scheduled for today is the EIA Natural Gas Storage data at 10:30am.

The Nasdaq is auctioning in a methodical manner. Tuesday’s big gap lower was faded. We found responsive buyers Tuesday and spent the rest of the session trading higher. Yesterday we opened gap up and spent the entire session slowly working the gap fill lower. Today’s gap up is on the professional variety but still at risk of being filled. Conversely, there I an open gap up at 4476.25 which may entice the market upward. Overall the market has been an objective mechanism of price discovery all week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory. There’s a big HVN at 4450 that might behave like a magnet once markets open. I will look for buyers to defend north of 4440 to set up a move to fill the gap up to 4476.25.

Hypo 2 is gap and go higher, push up to 4476.25 and find sellers who defend the 05/04 range.

Hypo 3 sellers push down though 4440 and sustain, setting up a fill of the overnight gap to 4424.25.

Hypo 4 bulls sustain trade above 4476.25 to target the NVPOC at 4489. Stretch target is 4493.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_05142015

Perfect Action To Cause Complacency

378 views

They are boiling the frogs ever so gently this week, 2 degrees per minute, you can set you watch to it. It seems less a market of sellers and more a market without buyers, but doing a fair job advertising lower prices.

Just some tinder here, one tally whacker who breaks the code of silence to turn on risk and the whole market will turn into a firework display. I patiently wait for my judgment, be it tossed into a bottomless pit or cased beer and fireworks.

Gap Hunter

324 views

Nasdaq futures are up a touch as we head into cash open. The index spent most of the evening trading up following yesterday’s strong reactive buying. Range overnight managed to press 2nd sigma while volume stayed compressed into its normal range.

On the economic calendar we saw Advance Retail Sales at 8:30am which solicited a choppy but ultimately sideway reaction. We also have Business Inventories at 10am and Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am.

Going back to the charts, yesterday we opened pro gap down and drove lower from the opening bell. The range was enough to expand volatility for a third week. It also managed to fill last Thursday’s pre NFP gap. The auction ultimately stalled out and found responsive buyers. We then worked higher to close the overnight gap up to 4431. A few attempts were made to reenter Monday’s range but ultimately we traded lower into the bell as the market was tasked with absorbing a heavy amount of supply in the final hour and a half of trade.

Heading into today, we are priced to open on the high-end of yesterday’s range. My primary expectation is for seller to push into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4420.50 to close the overnight gap. This market has demonstrated a strong proclivity to close gaps lately so it might as well continue doing so. From there sellers may continue pushing to 4416 where I will look for signs of buyers and then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push off the open to take out overnight high 4447.75 to target 4455.50 where sellers come in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers take out 4455.50-4457.75 and continue higher to target the open gap up at 4476.25.

Hypo 4 breakdown below 4416.25-4412 opening us up to trade down to 4395.50.

Levels:

NQ_MarketProfile_05132015

Embracing The Uphill Battle

314 views

Have I caught you just before a meeting? Ok listen to me anyway. Everything you see is a lie—parlor tricks created to fleece you of your hard earned dollars. You work hard, don’t you? Yes? Well let me do you a favor.

Throw away your books. They collect dust and crowd what should be a paperless modern lifestyle. Better yet, burn them. Make them into carbon like a palm oil farmer in the Serengeti. Books are only to be used as weights, for building big ass muscles, to attract a mate with comparable muscle mass, or MOAR.

Then start trading the Nasdaqs with your homie. Then, when the blood suckers go after your book of stocks, you can scrape back their take.

Terrorist sell robots came into the financial complex and gobbled up the NFP rally while good Americans were sleeping. America had to spend all damn day beating said robots back with a Louisville slugger, bear Jew style, only to yet again find more sellers back inside Monday’s range.

Meanwhile, another earthquake, tick-tock mates, hit. Soon a hole to the center of the earth will open and spewing from it will be perverts from Zillow who breathe on you and stroke your hair with their greasy hands.

In short, hells breaking loose so I should probably go lift heavy objects up and down until I swell as wide as a door jam.