I do not seek your admiration or praise while I highlight that we called the beginning of the correction here on the RAUL blog. I only highlight this historic post to demonstrate that there is a method to these market and if you focus on the right information, consistently, then you will develop a means of extracting actionable signals from the stock market.
Anyhow, 3-months removed, and I am making another call. The correction is done. Unless a major event occurs (asteroid, nuke, evil forces like CITI GROUP finally succeeding in destroying Tesla) then bulls will cruise into summer, ushering in ‘boring’ Dow 40 days and rally after rally on low volume.
It should be noted that before February 3rd I have never called for a correction. And therefore I never had the chance to say when a correction was over. So today is very special.
I have little more to say. Soon an entire gaggle of mothers will descend upon mothership. Yesterday I did the prep work to host these meat loving ladies, who will be enjoying a barbecued chicken thigh that I marinated overnight and lightly coated with Sicilian olive oil. Sides include little potato pouches full of buttery herby goodness, a cauliflower and cashew mash, a traditional Italian table salad, and an assortment of fun sides like frozen grapes to keep the champagne cool.
Mother’s day is the one day to project stability to the women in your lives. Women spend an inordinate amount of time worrying. If we can alleviate their silly nature for just one day, let this be it.
I am balls-on-the-carrot-chopping-block bullish into the rest of May, and possibly beyond.
As always, TBD.
Exodus members, the 182nd edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.
For the first time in 2018 we experienced volume and range within the confined of ‘normal’ relative to a five year study of the instrument. There have been several days with normal range, or normal volume, but not both. This may or may not be significant. Price worked to a new weekly high overnight before coming into balance.
The only economic event today is University of Michigan’s primary May reading of confidence.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up and sellers unable to work into it. Then the rest of the day was spent slowly campaigning higher prices unseen since March 19th.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6964.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6979.50 setting up a move to close the open gap at 6999.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers trade down through overnigh5t low 6948.50. Look for buyers around 6917.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up to 7022.75 before two way trade ensues.
Thu May 10, 2018 9:10am ESTComments Off on Buyers out in front of NVIDIA earnings, here is the Thursday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price worked higher overnight, pausing briefly as we explored levels unseen since late-March, and ultimately spending the night campaigning higher. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected and CPI data came out mixed.
Also on the economic docket today we have a big Treasury auction; at 1pm the US Treasury will auction off $17 billion in 30-year notes. At 2pm there is a monthly budget statement, and after-market-close NVIDIA is set to report earnings.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began gap up, out-of-range. Sellers worked into it and soon found a strong responsive bid. Buyers became initiative ahead of lunch and pressed higher before coming into balance at the highs late in the afternoon.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to wok into overnight inventory but stall around 6907.75 setting up a move to take out overnight high 6823.50. Look for sellers up at 6963.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers work a gap fill down to 6896 and continue lower, down through overnight low 6888.75. Look for buyers down at 6879 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 6832.50 effectively eliminating Wednesday’s rally.
Wed May 9, 2018 8:50am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ holds balance, signs of normalization, here is the Wednesday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume. Price worked higher overnight, stalling just below the Monday cash high. Overall the globex auction stayed contained in the balance that has been forming since Sunday.
On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and a 10-year note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began gap down and sellers made the first move, pushing lower but failing to close the Friday gap. Instead responsive buyers (responsive relative to the Tuesday open, initiative relative to the Friday close) stepped in and pushed higher, closing the overnight gap. This put us range extension up. Responsive sellers stepped in and formed a sharp excess high before we went range extension down, putting us neutral. After closing the Friday gap we again traversed the entire range and closed near session high.
Neutral extreme. Choppy.
Heading into today my primary expectation is fro sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6821.50. From here we continue lower, down though overnight low 6812.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight (weak) high at 6850 setting up a move to target 6856.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6864.25 setting up a move to target the open gap at 6883.75 before two way trade ensues.
Tue May 8, 2018 8:53am ESTComments Off on Small gap down, here is the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, briefly probing below the Monday cash low before settling into balance.
The economic calendar is light today. We have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am then a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up beyond the Friday range and morning drive higher from buyers. There was a brief range extension but not by much, the rest of the day was spent chopping and in balance.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6824.50. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6837.50. Look for sellers up at 6856.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 6791 setting up a move to target 6766.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down into last Friday’s trend up, probing down to the naked VPOC at 6750 before two way trade ensues.
Mon May 7, 2018 8:57am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ gap up beyond last Friday’s range, here is the Monday trading plan
NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price campaigned higher overnight, trading up to prices unseen since about three weeks back before coming into balance.
The economic calendar is light this week. Today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and consumer credit at 3pm.
Last week was choppy. Sellers took action early in the week. Price moved methodically lower. Buyers stepped Tuesday afternoon and again Thursday. Friday the NASDAQ showed divergent strength and made preliminary attempts to break away from a muti-week consolidation. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up. The day was spent auctioning higher and working through some key contextual levels that suggest the tech-heavy index may be breaking up and away from a multi-week correction.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open. Look for buyers to eventually step in and move up through overnight high 6833. Look for sellers up at 6845.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers work down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6776 and continue lower through overnight low 6772.25. Look for buyers around 6766 and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers campaign up to 6857 before two way trade ensues.
It is a thin thread that holds our society together. Hard winds pressed through the north and challenged that reality over the weekend. At times gusting up to 60+ miles-per-hour, wind and wind alone took out electricity in most of the mitten’s thumb.
winds up to 60mph I've opened all hatches to the mothership we're runnin' wide open the volume of air coming through is incredible pic.twitter.com/ZLF40ukCix
Saturday morning I woke up to a pleasant silence. Mothership maintained a comfortable 74 degrees through the night and a gentle breeze was blowing through the rear port. It was so quiet that morning that after rolling around, soaking in the gentle wake up call from busy birds, I began to worry that perhaps power had gone out. Then, as if on cue, my dish washing robot kicked on and began thrashing Friday night’s plates and pans with boiling hot water. Mothership was operational.
Last fall, in keeping with our current political climate, I began building a wall. The east side of Detroit is plagued with corrupt politicians and a variety of wild dogs, and I wanted to create a small libertarian oasis where I could walk around in the nude, tending to my grapes and fruit trees. This has been a dream since I spied the old German couple across the street as a boy. Elder RAUL always speculated that the “old krauts” were Nazis on the run, and this skepticism always made me curious of them. One day I caught a glimpse of their shriveled-old bodies picking fruit off trees in their yard, fully nude, and I thought they had it all figured out.
I know most Americans don’t have a stomach for nudity due to their Regan-era morality and general fear of sexuality (Free The Nipple!). So I set out to build a wall. It is, of course, going to be the most beautiful wall anyone has ever seen. Phase II of wall building is underway, and you will be happy to know the wall was unfazed by mother nature’s wind lashing:
I received a distress call from elder RAUL around 9am Saturday. He was without power and several of the robotic systems I had built to augment his up north lifetsyle were still and lifeless. He seemed to be calm, but also so calm I worried he was harboring a great deal of anxiety. I loaded the tactical deployment vessel with a generator, ample fuel, and several contractor-grade extension cords. Then I pushed north.
About a third of the way up the main corridor, the gravity of the situation began to set in. There were many electric poles snapped in half like dried up twigs:
There aren’t many street lights along the way but they were all out. Black from top-to-bottom, red-to-green. I passed a set of hoop houses that appeared shredded. I stopped in to see if I could help. I walked up to the nursery owner, Theresa, having light conversation with her team. She told me it was a pretty wild situation Friday, and at one point she opted to close up the house, have a whisky, and go to bed.
Her morning was less pleasant than mine, but she gracefully handled the wreckage. She gave me a barefoot tour of the facility, offering advice along the way for growing plums in Michigan. What seemed like major damage to my eyes turned out to be relatively small. The inventory was a little beat up, but she had taken out an insurance policy last season and appears to be coming out of the wind relatively unscathed.
I love chaos. When I tell people this they often think it is because I love destruction. That is not the case. It is because chaos creates opportunity, both professionally and introspectively. A natural disaster brings out the real character of people and provides us the chance to see what we are made of. Sometimes those challenges reveal something about ourselves that may be unsettling. Which is fine. It means we have found a path to growth and improvement.
By the way the cows were in good spirits and it appears none of them blew away:
None of the pinwheels in the distance showed any sign of damage. During the last major windstorm a pinwheel destroyed itself after the brakes failed. It was rumored to travel more than two miles, spinning like a ninja star across the planes, leaving four foot deep gouges along the way like the footprints of a marching Pink Floyd hammer.
If you’ve made it this far, you may be wondering what any of this has to do with NVIDIA earnings? Electricity, my noble reader, is what runs through the semiconductors and brings them to life. Exodus has put out many rare readings over the last month that whispered of bearish times. The relevance of those readings expires at close of business Thursday. At the same time, NVIDIA will be reporting earnings.
Back in early February, there were even more rare readings, but these were from IndexModel. They spoke of a correction that could play out one of two ways. The second way was a drawn-out, time-based correction. Here is the specific note from our February 4th Strategy Session:
After the 9/11/2016 reading a bid was established the very next day, but the next three months were spent churning sideways in what appears in retrospect to be a time-based correction.
Three months. And here we are lads.
The bears have FOUR MORE DAYS to present themselves and keep this correction going. Otherwise, come Friday, all bearish bets are off and we are going balls-to-the-wall long into summer, in a full DGAF manner.
So NVIDIA is the final arbiter.
So it is written, so it shall be.
As for me, I am going to be spending the first few days of the week in nature. I need to further assess the effect these winds had on the local watershed and bird populations. #developing
Exodus members, the 181st edition of Strategy Session is live. Check out what is going on with the PHLX Semiconductor index, and how we can observe it going forward to make better life decision.
I had done all my homework. I was prepared to pivot. I owe a ton of credit to Jeff Kohler aka The Option Addict for teaching what I call the ‘divergent index’ trade. He taught it during one of his many workshops here at iBankCoin. Anyhow, I grabbed ahold of the long side Tuesday around lunch and rode it right into settlement. Right into Apple earnings and the NASDAQ spike that followed.
Fuck. I nearly threw up from the gains.
By the way, if you aren’t following me on Twitter (@indexmodel) you are missing out on action items I highlight during the trading day. I have spent the last few months reining in my tweets, to keep them as relevant and actionable as possible. If I’ve ever added value to your trading day, please consider giving me a shout out on Twitter. I need to spread my brand of hustle and positivity and not putting other investors down.
Thursday, more of the same. Nailing key price levels and taking in NASDAQs.
Meanwhile my buy-and-hold portfolio was destroyed. Three of my positions are down big on the week, $MTCH $TSLA and $SNAP. I never expect much from Snapchat, and now Match is up against Facebook too. I still have to fully assess the Match/Facebook/Snapchat situation before taking any action (buying more, cutting the losses).
As for Tesla, it is suffice to say everyone is completely unhinged on both sides of this stock. I remain permanently bullish. It used to upset me to see people trash talking Our Leader (all Praise and Glory to Elon!) and I would defend His name. These days I just stay quiet and continue accumulating shares.
On the hustle front, I made some powerful connections down in Detroit at the Fintech Association meeting. Sometimes I wonder if I am selling myself short by just trading my own accounts and tossing ham around on the interwebs. My understanding of the Fintech world is much deeper than most. I debate returning to the fray.
But then again, Mothership is looking better than ever. I moved nine arborvitaes, installed three smoke bushes, and I have laid the groundwork for a regulation size bocci court accented with a three tier pineapple fountain. Where I live is becoming less house, more office by the day. It makes going to work downtown or in Birmingham a bit less appealing.
That’s all I have to say. The week flew by and many good things happened. Some bad too. I wish only the good to you and your people this lovely May weekend.
May the fourth be with all my sci-fi nerds. Happy Cinco de Mayo to my fellow mexi-degenerates. And GOD BLESS AMERICA.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced for most of the evening, chopping along the Wednesday low until about 8am when it pushed down into the Tuesday, May 1st range. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected.
Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-manufacturing/service composite, durable goods, and factory orders at 10am.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began flat and choppy, with sellers making an initial push down to 6666 early on, then a secondary push to put us range extension down before flattening out at the daily mid ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Feds left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged via an 8-0 vote. Third reaction after the announcement was down. First reaction pushed us neutral, and we eventually traversed the entire range and closed on the lows.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go down. Look for a battle at 6600 to ultimately give way to more selling, down to close the gap at 6554.75. Look for responsive buyers at 6545 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers work into overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6632.50. Look for sellers at 6641.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 6532.25 before two way trade ensues.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume. Price sprung higher in the initial hours of Globex, propelled by strong-as-ever earnings from the world’s largest company, Apple. Then we came into balance, hovering inside last Friday’s range. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out better than expected.
Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and an FOMC rate decision at 2pm. The gambling halls down in Chicago are currently placing a 94.3% probability that the Fed will leave their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution up. The day began gap down and with an attempt lower. Responsive buyers quickly stepped in and closed the gap. Then we traded sideways while the rest of the market sold off. Just after New York lunch a rally started to materialize, and we rallied clean through end-of-day and into Apple earnings.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down to 6666 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision. Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.
Hypo 2 buyer work up through overnight high 6740 setting up a move to target 6757.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision. Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up and close the open gap at 6777 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision. Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.