Tuesday, July 26, 2016
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,498 Blog Posts

Calm Ascent Continues But Today Is Traders Best Hope for Volatility

goooat

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat-ish/gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held yesterday’s upper quadrant while slightly extending price to new highs.  At 8:30am the Philadelphia Fed reading was well-below expectations and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators at 10am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm. Today is also packed with earnings, the most reports this week.  All this combined may introduce some volatility into the market.

Yesterday we printed a short-squeeze profile.  They look like a capital letter-P.  It was nearly a trend day but fell off the highs near the end of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to continue working price higher, up through overnight high 4661.50.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4674.25 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4643 and test 4630.50 before settling into two way trade.

Hypo 3 strong sellers sustain trade below 4630.50 trigger a liquidation which probes below yesterday’s low 4615.50 and find responsive buyers just below at 4611 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

07212016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07212016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Microsoft Earnings Blast NASDAQ To Prices Abandoned Last Christmas

santarobot

NASDAQ futures are coming into mid-week trade gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, to a fresh swing high which probed late-December 2015 price levels, following an earnings beat from Microsoft just after closing bell.

See also: Evil $MSFT Posts A Solid, Albeit Boring, Quarter

On the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  It was a slow, balanced tape that drifted lower after coming into the day gap up.  During settlement price spiked higher following Microsoft earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4605.  From here sellers continue working price lower, down though overnight low 4597.75.  Look for responsive bidders down around 4586.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, take out overnight high 4626.75 early on and continue exploring higher prices.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4630.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers blast up-and-out of the ascending wedge forming on the daily chart, up through overnight high 4626.75 and sustain trade above 4630.50 setting up a secondary leg higher to target the open gap up at 4645.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling closes overnight gap 4605, take out overnight low 4597.75 and breaks down through 4580 triggering a liquidation down to the open gap at 4561 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

07202016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07202016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Still No Catalyst; High Balance Persists

waitwaitwait

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price mostly worked lower, taking back about 68.8% of the rally from yesterday before finding a bid and settling into two-way trade.  At 8:30am the Housing Starts and Building Permits data was [very] slightly better-than-expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have both the 52-week and 4-week T-Bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week kicked off with a slight gap up and buyers managed to drive higher from it—taking out last Friday’s high early on and sustaining trade above it for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4607.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 4611.75 and tag 4617.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close the gap up to 4607 then stall out.  The market rolls over and takes out overnight low 4592.50 and continues lower to target 4586.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4592.50 early on and work price down to 4582.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 some kind of liquidation takes hold.  Sellers sustain trade below 4582 setting up a liquidation down to 4591.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

07192016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07192016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Stocks Rip Higher After Chaotic Weekend

paused-thinking

Early this morning, combing through news feeds, premium chat rooms, and my precious twitter stream there was a recurring sentiment among market participants–a toxic mentality that often leads to errors.

This will not be a long lecture, only a quick reminder:

You are not in control of the markets.

If you feel anger or frustration or confusion, it could be a [failed] attempt by your psyche to impose your will on the marketplace.

Step back, lads.

Moving on…markets are ripping higher after being in balance since Thursday.  This is hypo 2 from the morning report.  Why are the markets attempting to breakout of balance already? Just after 10am, just after the NAHB Housing Market Index the rally began.  The housing read was just a touch below expectations and is not the likely catalyst.  Bottom line–it doesn’t matter why, just do what is right for your and your money in these conditions.

This is the first week I have no edge coming into.  I booked my AMZN short, a trade I took exclusively on snapchat [username: vCali].  The purpose of showing my trades is not so others follow along–instead the purpose is to show what methods seem to work [for now] for me.

I have killed these markets from the last week of May, all through June, and into today.  Typically I would pound my chest and continue my aggressive campaign now, ultimately foregoing a decent chunk of my hard-earned gains.

This time, since I have no edge, I am backing off, for the win.

Markets do not care about your reaction to external events.  If they only want to move based on central banks and earnings, so be it.  Accept it, trade it, or move on to a different vocation.

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Stocks Begin Week Balanced as Investors Wait To Hear Earnings

A trader fills orders Monday in the Standard

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price bounced around inside Friday’s range overnight, extending the balance formed back on 07/14.  Bank of American reported earnings this morning and is trading slightly higher.

Also on the economic docket today we have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, 3- & 6-month T-bills being auctioned at 11:30am, Long-term TIC flows at 4pm, and IBM, NFLX, and YHOO reporting after the bell (among others).

Last week the market worked higher.  We opened gap up every day and most sessions were simply balanced, drifting trade after their respective gap up.  Friday was the first day sellers managed to turn initiative and probe a bit lower, but overall the week was dominated by slow accumulation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4579.25.  Sellers take out overnight low 4577 and find responsive buying ahead of 4570 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, work up and take out overnight high 4598.75 and test above last Friday’s high 4603.50.  Sellers step in around 4621.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work gap fill down to 4579.25, take out overnight low 4577 then sustain trade below 4570 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 4561 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

07182016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07182016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Markets Will Need To Price in The Geopolitical Risk of Turkey Come Monday

turkeyboy

News of the coup or mutiny or staged political event trickled stateside right as the market was wrapping up a lazy week of drifting higher.  The summer breeze was making everyone feel fine.  Perhaps more than one liquid lunch was enjoyed to cap off the successful week.  Overall the news barely registered as a tingle by the sensory nerves living in our marketplace.

Perhaps it will introduce some volatility into an otherwise docile summer market?  Perhaps, but the cynic in me sees this blowing over fast.  Nobody wanted to entertain a conversation about Turkey over the weekend in real life–people would rather talk about Pokemon.

The model I build every week inside the Exodus Strategy session has been on a steady run, but this week it offers very little.  With no real edge heading into this week, a slow economic calendar, and only boring companies set to report earnings, there is little reason to engage the markets.

The Republican National Convention kicks off Monday–perhaps some ultra-violence down in the drive-through state of Ohio will put some life in the tape.

TBD

Exodus members – The 88th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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NASDAQ Completely Balanced and Accepting of Higher Prices

balanced-sunglasses

NASDAQ future are coming into Friday flat, the first flat open after 6-consecutive gap up opens.  The overnight session was balanced on normal range and volume.  Price briefly took out Thursday’s low before settling into range-trade all night.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out well above expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have the U. of Michigan preliminary reading of Confidence.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened gap up, made a small push lower, then higher, then went into balance, but both sides of the initial balance we broken so the print was neutral.  That means we have printed 3-consecutive abnormal profiles; normal, neutral extreme down, neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work us higher, up through overnight high 4596 and make a move on the current Globex swing high, up at 4608.25.  A test above there triggers some stops thrusting us up to 4621 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 more chop.  Perhaps we take out overnight high 4596 and immediately reveal a seller and go into grind mode ahead of the weekend, between 4580 and 4600.

Hypo 3 sellers go to work, take out overnight low 4576.25 then set their sights on the open gap down at 4576.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

07152016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07152016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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The FTC Has Spoken: Herbalife Is Not A Pyramid Scheme

thumb up

The benevolent and wise FTC is out this morning with a favorable ruling for Herbalife.  By their determination the company checks out.

No signs of a pyramid scheme here, folks.  Carry on, nothing to see here.

Herbalife will be subjected to a $200 million dollar wrist slap, however, for misrepresentation claims.

What’s $200 million between friends like drugs and government?

Shares of HLF are going berserk premarket, currently indicating a +10% gap up on the open.  Early reports from Montauk, New York of a grey-haired man running naked down the beach are beginning to surface.

billackack

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Markets Continue Higher; NASDAQ Gap Up For 6th Consecutive Day

pendread

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price shot higher just after midnight and continued to rally aggressively up until about 6am when sellers stepped in just above 4600.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was mixed.

There are no other economic events scheduled for today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  This came on the heels of Tuesday’s normal day. Therefore we had two consecutive uncommon prints and yesterday’s suggested lower prices heading into today.  With that expectation, short sellers are likely being caught off-guard by the overnight strength.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open and test 4600.  Expect indecisiveness here, but the longer we linger at it the more likely we take out overnight high 4608.25.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4621.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the overnight inventory and test back into yesterday’s range 4583.50.  Look for responsive buyers just below, down at 4577.75 and two way trade to ensue, slowly working higher to take out overnight high 4608.25 by end-of-day.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push into overnight inventory, pressing us back into yesterday’s range 4583.50 and sustaining trade below 4577.75 triggering a quick move down through the ‘air pocket’ [see Market Profile chart below] and filling the gap down at 4561.  Sellers continue lower and take out overnight low 4553.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4548.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

07142016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07142016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Markets Continue To Slaughter Bears By Pressing Higher

slay

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up, the fifth consecutive gap up, after a balanced overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked both down through and up above yesterday’s cash range, and as we approach the open markets are lingering at the Globex high.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications dialed back a bit from last week and at 8:30am the Imported Price Index reading came in worse than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal.  That means we never exceeded the first hour’s price range for the rest of the day and suggests and active higher time frame in the morning then nothing but local-to-local algo trade for the rest of the session.  These tend to occur in low volatility markets and also sometimes near inflection points.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4570.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4565.25 and then a push to takeout overnight high 4584.50.  From here buyers target the ‘Red Monday’ gap up at 4591.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go.  We are sitting above yesterday’s close and a squeeze could ensue, up through the ‘Red Monday’ 4591.50 gap and sustain trade above 4592.25 setting up a rally with little resistance until 4561.25.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap down to 4570.50 then take out overnight low 4559.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4557.50 and two way trade.

Hypo 4 strong sellers close gap 4570.50, take out overnight low 4559.75, sustain trade below 4557.50 and close the gap down at 4549, responsive buyers down at 4548.25 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

07132016_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

07132016_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

Comments »