Tuesday, May 24, 2016
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,413 Blog Posts

FOMC Minutes Spike Likelihood of June Rate Hike Up Over 30%


NASDAQ futures dropped hard after the 2pm Minutes showed most Fed Policymakers viewed it ‘likely’ they would raise interest rates in June.

The verbiage spiked the probability of a June rate hike up over 30% per the Fed Fund futures.  Before the announcement the implied probability was just over 25%, see below:


After the minutes:














The NASDAQ is now in a neutral print.  Look for buyers to work price back up the mean:



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LendingClub Subpoenaed by NY Regulators Over Business Practices


LendingClub is where internet folk meet and negotiate peer-to-peer loans.  Last quarter, by offering such a marketplace, they managed to bring in over $150M in revenues.  Per Exodus, their revenue trajectory is what we in the business of growth look for, perfect:


You may wonder, “How does a website simply connect those with money with others who want loans, and take in such egregious revenues?”  And you’re not alone.  New York’s Financial Regulators are wondering the same thing, and they have sent a subpoena to the company.  The news has stifled the shares, which were otherwise having a robust dead-cat bounce today after being pummeled back on May 9th post earnings.

Are they simply attempting to help people finance the American dream? Or is this another tale of corporate greed?


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Rumor Report: TASER Being Approached by Northrup Grumman


Market chatter is circulating that Northrup Grumman aka drone fury wants TASER.

Why would the war profiteers want nonlethal weaponry?  Perhaps they want to get back to arming the police state, trigger happy rednecks who cannot be trusted with firearms, and they know the only way to capture market share is via electroshock guns.

Whatever the case, the market is treating this rumor as truth and TASR shares are in a decent spot, check it out:


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NASDAQ Piles Lower Heading into Fed Minutes


NASDAQ futures are mildly gap down heading into Wednesday trade after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, holding yesterday’s lower quadrant until around 8:30am when a hard push lower took price down to new lows on the week.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in at -1.6% and well below last month’s 0.4%.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.  More importantly, we have Fed Minutes out at 2pm.  The minutes may provide more market volatility than normal due to recent hawkish comments from a few Fed members.


Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  This came on the heels of Monday’s trend up.  This is the second time in the last 6 trading days where sellers promptly erased up-trend days in the following session.  The same thing happened last Wednesday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to lurch lower.  Look for a move to test the 4300 century mark where responsive buyers show up and make a steady campaign back up to close the overnight gap at 4321.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4300 setting up a move to target 4286.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work higher off the open, close the gap up to 4321.50 then target overnight high 4329.25.  This triggers a rally up to 4360 before two way trade ensues.

These hypos only apply to the morning.  After FOMC minutes we could see participants providing direction into the end of the week.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Traders Deflate Morning Wood at Church and Dwight After Discovering Spanish Origins


Early this morning shares of Church & Dwight Co. [NYSE: CHD] spiked up to nearly $125/share after reports that Procter & Gamble is finalizing an offer to acquire the company.  The report came from negocios.com, a Spanish news site.

The price has since drooped back down to about $99/share.  The CHD stock is still performing extremely well year-to-date, up over 13% so far, amid a sea of mediocre performers in the consumer goods space.

See Also: The Safest Stocks Aren’t Safe Anymore

Church & Dwight sell Trojan condoms, the most popular condom in the United States.  They also sell laundry detergent and more, according to the business profile inside Exodus:


The problem with this rumor, and why it didn’t stick, is the origin.  To spike a $12 billion dollar 20% higher on a report from foreign lands is silly.  Clearer minds have prevailed and the condom and laundry detergent stock is back to unchanged.

Morning wood has once again been neglected.

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Gird (up) Your Loins


Prepare and strengthen yourself for what is about to come.

This upcoming week is shaping up, by the numbers, to be fast.  Look for manufactured price action to send you into the pits of hell, deep red, effectively expiring your short dated call options before ripping the market higher.

You will be challenged, some will perish, and the bold will thrive.

I intend to return to the United States and buy the stock market.  Likely Wednesday.

Members of Exodus, the latest Strategy Session has been published.  Be sure to check it out.  This is the most important report since early January.



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The Day of Reckoning Looms for Huge Global Corporations


Shares of Joy Global are being dismantled, down over 15% on the session, sliding lower alongside gold, copper, and silver.


You may recall I am in this stock, not because I think globalism stands a chance under the Trump regime, but because Exodus flagged the name a few weeks back.  The position trade was a success, overall, because I scaled profits along the way.  This is why we build rules and trade.  Now, with the stock coming against me, I have a simple decision–cut the final runner if we close below the 61.8% retrace, or about $17.00.

See Also: Milking A Winner-A Case Study in Position Trading

I lost faith in JOY last week when The Donald laid waste to Lyin’ Ted and that other guy.  Companies like Joy Global will suffer as the United States shifts back to a nationalist agenda.  The jig is up.  No more chasing slave labor around the world–forcing the indigenous people into work/live camps until they rebel, then closing up shop and finding your next mark–without being subjected to steep tariff and import banishment.

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Bulls Attempt To Pivot, Have A Clear Shot at Monthly Highs

jordan tounge

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Balanced price action gave way to upward movement after a strong buyer stepped in around 4:30am.  The buyers stalled out just ahead of 4350–about at the upper quadrant from last Tuesday’s session.

The economic calendar is slow all week.  We have already heard earnings from most major companies. Today we have Labor Market Conditions index at 10am, also a 3- & 6-month T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week we kicked off the month of May will a bull trap.  Price went trend up Monday only to gap down and hold lower Tuesday.  The rest of the week price walked lower, no real volatility, and this continued until late-Friday afternoon when a strong bid pushed into the marketplace.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4328.50.  Sellers continue working lower, down to 4322 but fail to take out overnight low.  Instead price works higher to take out overnight high 4347 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out overnight high early on 4347 then sustain trade above 4350 setting up a test above last Tuesday’s session high 4360.50.  This triggers a chase and price works higher, up to close last Monday’s gap at 4369.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4372 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap down to 4326.50 then take out overnight low 4318.  Sellers slide down through the air pocket formed during last Friday’s afternoon rally and price tests 4304.75 before two way trade ensues.

Exodus Members: schedule your live demonstration now!  Let us walk you through the software and answer any questions you may have. Cheers!



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves


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Mother’s Day Analysis Reveals A Chill Market With One Twist That Could Send Investors Running


News items, earnings, economic numbers, prevailing sentiment.  There is so much information available to the investor.  Every day you can choose to be inundated with as much [or as little] as you like.  I read every word written on iBankCoin daily, for example, while also enjoying CNBC during lunch.  I have the hots for Kayla Tausche mainly, but I also like a dose of the station’s content.  However, I live by the following motto:

“Objective judgement, now at this very moment

Unselfish actions, now at this very moment

Willing acceptance, now at this very moment, for all external events

That is all you need.” – Marcus Aurelius

Thus I prepare a detailed analysis every Sunday because data is cold, dead, and logical.  It allows me to wipe my lenses clean and take a look at what’s going on inside the market.  I do this every week and share my findings with the members of Exodus.  My 77th edition of the Strategy Session has been published.  Non-members can access today’s report free, because we have trials going on until midnight New York.  Here’s a link. Don’t miss out on this: https://exodus.ibankcoin.com/free-trial/

Ah yes, the twist, I almost forgot.  We have a Friday the 13th this week, so stay sharp 0_o

Happy Mother’s Day everyone!  Be good to the Moms in your life.  Prepare them foods, embellish the home with floral arrangements, and celebrate their being moms and stuff.

UPDATE: a cantankerous lad on Stocktwits provided Friday the 13th stats on the SPX.  I haven’t verified his findings, but allegedly (and I have no idea the sample size) Friday the 13th is green 60.5% of the time with a median return of +0.24%.  So any superstition associate with the day/date is ‘pretty stupid’.

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Sellers Methodically Working The Tape Lower


NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Friday of the month lower because it’s May.  The globex session featured normal range and selling as the downward price action has been orderly.  Price managed to push to a new swing low after 8:30am when Non-Farm payroll data came in much worse than expected.

See also: Huge Payrolls Miss: Non-farm Payrolls Come in at 160k, Well Below Estimate of 207k

The only other economic events scheduled for today are the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. A choppy open gave way to buyers pushing higher.  Their try was quickly thwarted, and sellers managed to push down through the entire daily range and extend lower.  We ended the session chopping below the key 4300 level. The selling has been methodical so far, with volatility hardly inching higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a hard move lower off the open, fast, that quickly stalls out around 4265.  Look for responsive buyers to then start working price back up to 4300 where we chop heading into the weekend.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and work back up to 4300 gap.  From here they set their sights on overnight high 4302.75. Buyers rally price through the close, up to 4324.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation.  Sellers sustain price below 4265 setting up a liquidation down to 4200.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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