Thursday, September 29, 2016
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,625 Blog Posts

Wall Street Cruises into Friday on Top

Matthew McConaughey is Mark Hanna in THE WOLF OF WALL STREET, from Paramount Pictures and Red Granite Pictures.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday down a touch after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday’s range in slow and balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, a panel of Fed bankers speaking at noon, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The market opened gap up to fresh highs and an early open auction gave way to more initiative buying.  Up near the Fibonacci measured move target sellers stepped in and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4886.50.  Look for a test above the Thursday high 4892.25, to to tag the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price below 4882 and work down through overnight low 4875.25.  They tag 4867 before finding buyers who balance the market into the weekend.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down and close Wednesday’s gap down to 4849.50.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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UAE Agrees To Take in Only 15,000 Syrian Refugees


In a surprise shift, the United Arab Emirates has agreed to take Syrian refugees into their state.

15,000 of them.

Over 5 years.

Reem Al Hashemi, minister of state for international cooperation was speaking at a UN refugee summit when she announced the plan, saying “we must all do our part”.

“Ultimately, we must offer a source of hope for displaced persons that allows them to maintain dignity, return home, reintegrate themselves into their societies, and rebuild their countries and their lives,” she explained.


How many Syrian refugees have other countries officially taken in?

Germany: 600,000

Sweden: 64,700

Greece: 54,574

Canada: 33,147

United Kingdom: 5,102

United States: 7,123

It’s good to see Syria’s nearby neighbor doing their part to to help with the greatest Exodus of the last century.

Fifteen thousand, and they intend to ship them back ASAP.

Carry on.


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New Market Highs Post FOMC Rate Decision

Traders call out trades on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, April 25, 2007, after the Dow Jones industrial average cracked the 13,000 mark for the first time. The Dow leapt to an intraday record of 13,036.99 within minutes of the market's open, with investors also buoyed by data that showed orders for durable goods -- costly and long-lasting manufactured items -- rose more than expected in March.  REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES) - RTR1P16Q

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price has worked higher since 2am, rapidly at times, and managed to print a new all-time high price.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.

But most investors were concerned with yesterday’s FOMC decision.  Yesterday the Fed left their key interest rate unchanged and hinted of a rate hike by year end.  The event sent markets higher.

Other economic events on the docket today include Existing Home Sales at 9am, Leading Indicators at 10am, and a 10-Year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap up and a 2-way auction sellers stepped in and close the overnight gap.  They 2-ticked Tuesday’s low before the market reversed.  Then, following the FOMC rate decision, third reaction analysis yielded the buy and price went trend up into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and work price down to 4853.  Buyers step in here and we work up through overnight high 4873.  Look for sellers at 4890.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, push up to 4890.50 and find sellers.  Balance ensues up here before a secondary push which continues trending higher.

Hypo 3 sellers complete a full gap fill down to 4849.50 then take out overnight low 4842.75 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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FED DAY: NASDAQ Trading Levels


NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price probed near the week’s low before finding a buyer and pressing up near the week’s high before ultimately coming into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage application came in well below last week’s reading.

Today is Fed Day.  At 2pm they will release their rate decision.  Other than this major announcement, we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  It was a tight, range-bound day but it was controlled by sellers.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory, down to close the overnight gap at 4798 before finding a a buyers and marking time until the 2pm Fed announcement.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go.  They take out overnight high 4830.25 and work up to 4867 as we await the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 3 strong selling closes overnight gap 4798 early and continues, down through overnight low 4788.50.  Look for buyers down at 4779 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 full on liquidation trigger.  There is a slip zone below 4779 that extends down to 4760.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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US Department of Transportation Gives Their Blessing To The Self-Driving Car Industry


The federal government released a 15-point safety standard Monday for the development and design of autonomous vehicles.

The new guidelines on Monday, which stopped short of official regulations, targeted four main areas. The Department of Transportation announced a 15-point safety standard for the design and development of autonomous vehicles; called for states to come up with uniform policies applying to driverless cars; clarified how current regulations can be applied to driverless cars; and opened the door for new regulations on the technology.

Source: NY Times

This bodes well for Tesla investors as the company has a major lead in self-driving cars, with thousands of them already on the road.

It helps Uber and Lyft also, who have their own trade association devoted to swaying the opinion of autonomous cars down in Washington.

Back in January 2016, General Motors invested $500M in ride-share company Lyft.  The dollars were earmarked for autonomous cars.  It appears some of those dollars made their way into bureaucrats pockets, enough to keep the industry blessed of our leaders.  Overall a net-positive.

The downside of driverless cars gaining acceptance is the massive loss of human jobs that is sure to follow.  Taxi drivers, truck drivers, and delivery people will all soon face the cold reality of innovation–modern society has no work for low-skilled humans.

Those are robot jobs.

If you think your job is at risk of being automated, now is the time to adjust.  Develop a new skill.  The vanity industry will always need humans.  Sales.  Writers and musicians.  And most importantly robot overlord.

You can either embrace innovation, or feel its inevitable whip.

Autonomous cars are coming soon, and thanks to the Department of Transportation, roads will be filled with driverless cars without a messy patchwork of state laws and regulations.

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CNN Continues To Label Trump A Racist


During a rally on Monday, Donald Trump praised Israel for their use of profiling to combat terrorism.  When CNN reported the story, they added racial to Trump’s quote, with quotation marks.

Serious journalists use quotation marks when writing a direct quote.  On Monday, the Clinton News Network used them to add the trigger word ‘racial’ to what the republican presidential nominee said, check it out:


There are many components to Israeli-style profiling beyond ocular identification of someone being of Arab or Muslim heritage.

CNN irresponsibly using quotes to imply racism is just another case of mainstream media doing their part to keep the established elite in control of our country.  No harm will come to the news agency for crossing the literary line.  The shenanigans will continue.

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Monday Sellers Neutralized in Steady Overnight Trade


NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The session was balanced overall, with price holding Monday’s range and eventually working up through the midpoint of the weeks first day.  At 8:30am Housing Starts came in well below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  It was somewhat odd, however, because it started with a gap up and drive higher to new swing high.  Thus before we could begin trending lower we had to probe above the highs.  This is balance play.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for bulls to hold the 4800 level before working up through the overnight high 4815.50.  Look for choppy trade just above 4816 that eventually balances back into value around 4800.

Hypo 2 sellers work the gap fill down to 4794.75 setting up a move to take out overnight low 4790.  Buyers are just below here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 liquidation trigger.  After taking out overnight low 4790 price accelerates into the slip zone (see below).  Price works down to 4751.75 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Internet People Find Paul Combetta, The Man Who Deleted Clinton’s Emails During “oh shit” Moment, Asked Reddit How To Cover Up Hillary’s Email Address


Reddit is the self-proclaimed front page of the internet and also a place where people sometimes look for answers to tricky problems.

Like iBankCoin or Twitter, users can choose their handle, which is the name they go by on the website.  This process of choosing a username helps some people tell the internet how they really feel without jeopardizing their real name.  But most people are sloppy about it.

I am sloppy about choosing usernames because I am not the IT boy for Hillary Clinton.  If I were, thank goodness I am not, protecting my anonymity would be paramount when talking online.

The internet is a permanent archive

Even when websites are deleted, a cached version often lingers on Google.  Creepy, right?

Anyhow, Paul Combetta may have sought advice from Reddit on how to back fill a bunch of Hillary Clinton’s old emails with someone else’s name.

On the Friday, September 2nd, late in the afternoon before Labor Day weekend, the FBI released a huge trove of Clinton emails discovered during their investigation of the former Secretary of State’s use of a private email server.

The old find and replace

Below is the alleged proof that Paul “oh shit” Combetta was trying to alter HRC’s emails:


This is unlikely to change who you will vote for in November.   The stock market is not going to wiggle based off these findings.

And no one is likely to be prosecuted.  Carry on.


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NASDAQ Futures Make New High Overnight


NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher until about 4am, managing to make a new swing higher before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar today features NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, and both the 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions are taking place at 11:30am.

Last week opened hard gap down then trended higher all Monday.  Then, while the other indices marked time, the NASDAQ continued to rally, fueled by the success of Apple and the failure of Samsung. Here is the performance of each major index last week:


Last Friday we printed a normal variation up, holding the upper quad of Thursday’s trend day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4813.75.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 4810.75.  Buyers are found just below here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers show up around 4821 and work us up through overnight high 4841.75.  Look for a move to target the measured level at 4867 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 Liquidation triggers, price works down through 4810 and sets up a move to target 4800 before we balance out.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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No Bias; The Fed Will Leave Rates Unch; Market Reaction Afterwards Is Our Guide


Sometimes after all the calculations and research we have nothing to show for it.  In fact, this happens quite often in life and business.  Months spent building proposals, paying consultants for legal and architectural support, visits with public officials, and nothing comes of it.

Totally fine.  Part of the game.  If it were as simple as some grunt work then everyone would do it.

But it isn’t.  It takes relentless persistence.  Failing, learning, succeeding, learning.  Humility and patience, cheerful even when working with conniving and deceptive people you encounter every single day.

This week’s research has returned no bias.  The 97th Exodus Strategy Session will provide you no edge in trading or investing.  It highlights some interesting areas to watch, for guidance, but is otherwise just an exercise in routine.

Routine is my rock.  It can be yours too.

Stay focused.  The Fed will dictate market direction into the week’s end and perhaps the rest of the month.  And you can glean insight from it if you remain objective.

Exodus members, I encourage you to check out the latest Strategy Session.  It is live.

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