iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,113 Blog Posts

Out of Balance: NASDAQ Begins Week Pro Gap Up After First Round of French Elections

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last full week of April pro gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  When Globex trade opened Sunday evening, futures were 30 points higher and the rally continued overnight, pushed price nearly 60 points above last week’s closing price. This sort of gap throws the market out of balance and could lead to institutional activity at the opening bell.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today we have only the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week U.S. markets worked higher, lead by the small cap Russell Industrial Average.  There were bouts of selling throughout the week, but the sellers never managed to gain much traction, and most mornings featured a gap up.   The last week performance of each major index can be seen below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  Price opened more-or-less flat, and after some early chop a brief range extension down was achieved by the sellers before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a two-way auction at the open, pushing up-and-down to establish an early range, then either the buyers or sellers will make an attempted move out of it.  The move away from early balance will likely be significant and could drive direction all day.

If move is higher we only have one reference point—a Fibonacci level at 5517.75.  Primary hypo is sellers hold this level and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 5517.75 and continue exploring higher prices, trend day, open air, all-time highs.

Hypo 3 sellers break early balance and begin working into the overnight inventory, pushing a half gap down to about 5484.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation off the open, selling down through overnight low 5470 and a test of 5462.50 before two way trade ensues, or even a full gap fill down to 5441.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Happy Earth Day from The Scientists at iBankCoin Laboratory

Earth day saw scientists and activists nationwide marching for science.  For whatever reason, some of the marches had socialist undertones, which is gross, but nevertheless the ultimate theme was preserving spaceship earth despite it being infested with sapiens.

Now is a good time to run through the interactive graphics Bloomberg published back in 2015, which help, with pictures, to demonstrate the human effect that is driving global warming.

Moving on, the 128th Edition of Exodus Strategy session has been published.  Much of what caused concern last week was negated.  Those topping patterns in Transports and Semiconductors turned out to be so obvious looking that they were fake (a classic reason of why technical analysis is a bit silly).  It was a good reminder that directional bias is best driven by statistical analysis—cold numbers, dead to the emotions of our monkey brains—statistics that offer advice in the most logical means available.

There is no bias heading into next week, we cannot call it.  April ends in a sloppy manner, with the last trading day of the month falling on a Monday, very sloppy.  Not good!  Therefore, this week sits in a strange realm where options have expired and the month is not ending and no major economic events are scheduled.

Perhaps the best course of action, if I may be so bold, is to explore the nearby woodlands.  Perhaps sit quiet and still for 10 minutes and watch the trees and streams come alive with life.  Then plug back into the internet/news/market matrix with your batteries refreshed.

Earth day is a serious day for science.  The good folks at iBC labs will continue working to ensure the day is not bastardized by the socialists—whose agenda best resembles that of the pigs on Animal Farm.  Ultimately, thus far, history has shown the capitalism jives better with science than any other ethos, because where science discovers utility, capitalism sees opportunity.  Opportunity which drives money flow, money flow which is funneled back into science.

Brilliant.

Everyone say a prayer today to our savior, capitalists and scientist employer Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) and buy one indulgence in the form of a Tesla share Monday to clear your soul of all the industrial red meat you consumed so far in 2017.

Wishing you another safe trip around the sun.

Sincerely,

Raul Santos

Chief Scientist and Head of Aquatic Landings

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Overnight High Looks Weak, NASDAQ Looks Strong on Option Expiration Day

Let the record show my Sunday analysis, which suggested US markets had a ‘scary look to them heading into OPEX’ was off base.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday, option expiration Friday, gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up to the Thursday high, and has been treading water right at the high since.  The high has been tagged many times but so far not exceeded.  Therefore the profile has taken on a blunt shape on top, suggesting the high is ‘weak’ and prone to a test above it.

The economic calendar is light today.  We have Markit Manufacturing/Service PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap up for the third time this week, and for the third time this week sellers were unable to close the gap.  Instead the market pushed higher off the open, at one point before lunch trending up into the 04/05 liquidation zone before settling into two way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5454.75 continue up to 5461.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5440 triggering a liquidation down to 5415 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 choppy range from 5430 – 5455.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Recovery: Wednesday Afternoon Sell-off Erased During Extended Trade

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, reversing the Wednesday afternoon selling but holding inside the Wednesday range.

On the economic calendar today we have Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am.  At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed data is out.  Other economic events include Leading Indicators at 10am, and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price opened pro gap up, saw an early rally that briefly went range extension up before reversing down through the entire range and giving back most of the gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5396.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5394 and close the open gap down at 5389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, up through overnight high 5418.25,  Buyers continue higher, up to 5424.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers rally up to 5432.25 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Kendrick Lamar Schools Don Chealde on Police Violence in New DNA Music Video

Loaded with the urban youth undertones of oppression and police brutality, sex-money-murder, the latest video by Kendrick Lamar is a blaster.

The conservative types do not like a hip hop artists like Kendrick, because his music resonates and inspires change, unlike the comedic ‘brag-swag’ which titillates capitalists while being relatively harmless to their aristocratic lifestyle.

DNA features Don Cheadle as an interrogator whose brain becomes hacked by Kendrick.  A tsunami of prose floods into Chealde’s mind, and he takes on Kendrick’s energy, which empowers him to not be a bitch-ass snitch.

DNA is the #1 trending video on YouTube right now.  The entire Kendrick album is already being called a classic.  DNA is the type of song that makes you want to build a successful business in the city before the soulless corporate goons turn your hood into another whitewashed strip mall, like Chicago.  As your urban liaison, I advise you to play this song at max volume for your family and neighbors to enjoy.

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Last Tuesday’s Conviction Selling Erased During Strong Overnight Trade

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher during the entire session, pressing up into the hard selling from last Tuesday and nearly erasing the losses.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications data came out worse than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap down was quickly bought up and buyers continued pushing higher, to a new weekly high before sellers came in and reversed the entire move, briefly pushing the market range extension down before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, working up to the naked VPOC at 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain the Tuesday range at 5405.25 but fail, ultimately leading to a move up to 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 5389.50 then take out overnight low 5388.  Look for sellers down at 5383.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Commence The OPEX Grind; NASDAQ Loses Half of Monday’s Gains

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Monday high, briefly, during extended trading hours before a significant rotation lower pushed through.  The down move stalled around the Monday RTH midpoint. At 8:30am Housing Starts came in below expectation and Building Permits above expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Industrial/Manufacturing production at 9:15am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened the week gap up and buyers bought into it before we spent much of the day churning sideways.  Then, the afternoon featured a ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5394.50.  From here sellers step in and work lower, down through overnight low 5375.50.  Look for buyers down at 5374 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap and go lower, down through overnight low 5375.50 and continue lower, targeting the weekly gap down at 5358.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a gap fill up to 5394.50 the continue higher, up through overnight high 5403.75 triggering a rally up to 5430 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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U.S. Markets Have A Scary Look To Them Heading into OPEX

Greetings and Hoppy Easter!

Despite today being a Christian holy day, and Christians so far being the winning religion in the world, and Christians saying to spend today eating buttered lambs and candied hams, it is with honor and humility that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratory took some time to work inside the Exodus furnace rooms and generate a Strategy Session report.  And by the looks of these stock markets, it appears it is good we updated the models.

There is some sketchiness going on right now, just in time for post tax-day option expiration.

It seems so obvious that it may be a double head fake, but the two main sub-indices we monitor every Sunday have very stereotypical topping patterns in place, see below:

Pair that with the behavior of our broad indices as we wrapped up the holiday shortened week, and you have what looks like, visually, a sellers’ market.

Then there’s this 7-week long rotation into risk aversion sectors, which is difficult to show you, so instead view the 1-month performance of each sector, as demonstrated by the SPDR Select sector ETFs:

Then add in the fact that many investors, high on the hog after nearly a year of rallying, may have underestimated their tax liabilities, and you have a recipe for raising cash.

Another caveat, and the article escapes us, but about 8 days back an article was published saying market volatility may be gone forever.

LOLz

Wish it could be queued up, but after a cursory search of the interwebs and our cluttered desks, alas it must be taken as hearsay only.

There are some other small quirks, nothing major, but relevant nonetheless that are covered in the 127th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session—quirks which pertain to the algorithms inside the software.  Members, be sure to check it out!

As for the rest of you, rest up, for tomorrow the dark hand of volatility may resurrect itself from the cave.

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NASDAQ Heading into Maundy Thursday on Lows of Week

NASDAQ futures are heading into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down to a new low of week before stabilizing into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have the preliminary April read of Confidence from the U. of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and buyers could not fill the overnight gap.  Instead we worked lower, slowly, eventually closing on the low-of-the-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5372.50.  From here buyers continue higher, up through 5382 before stalling around 5395.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to close the gap at 5402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5355.75 and push down to 5348 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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What Happened at United Airlines Is A Net Positive for Society

United airlines had to pull four paying customers off an airplane.  Was it dumb to let them board in the first place? Probably yes, as was busting a citizen’s jaw till he was leaking, as they say in urban centers.

There are people who think the old man should have just got off the plane.  Siding with the aggressors–whether airport police or gate goons–means you are insensitive or worse hateful.

LABELING!

Moving on…

The truth is life gets way harder then your flight plans being screwed over.  Some people are right on the edge when they travel.  If only there was an institution to blame…

We can agree most people are obsessed with what happened here, right?  It makes great viral news because travel stress is relatable.  So many things about traveling suck.  The lines, the smell, space allotted per human, dirty toilets, belligerent drunks and kids.  Relating to the struggle this man faced is so human of you.

But is what happened bad?  It depends on who you ask.  Airline jokes are the bread and butter of comedians.  Just thumb through your Instagram and  BEHOLD, JOKES:

Most of you probably have a group chat, yes?  Friends and such, YES YES!?  JOKES:

 

Go to your local comedy club this weekend.  You bet your ass there will be United Airline jokes.  The reckless behavior demonstrated by everyone on that plane is the type of fodder comedians hope for.

The quick thinkers at Southwest airlines actually tweaked their marketing, cashing in on a huge opportunity to target millennials.  MILLENNIALS, mind you, who love traveling more than owning possessions:

They say Cato ran his dead brother’s ashes through a sieve, looking for gold.  Perhaps there are some stoics on the branding team at $LUV, making delicious lemonade from their wounded brother’s ashes.

Are airport police going to suddenly increase their violence against flyers, nipping at their heels?  Corralling them like sheep? Doubtful.  There is/was little harm done to society by the event.

When you sum up the benefits (jokes, distraction from WW3, branding opportunity) and subtract out the consequences (bloodied jaw, bruised ego for the resist crowd) you see quite logically that the event was a success for humanity, overall.

In six months, the cell phone footage of a beta-male being preyed on by a team of alphas will cease to resonate in your mind.  There will be something new for you thumb suckers to be outraged about, or you will just be distracted by living your own life—an infinitely more rewarding task.

In the meantime, consider what sort of message you send by insulting and name calling the realists of the world.  It makes you the hater, bro.

So lets just leave people to their own mistakes, all of them.  Shaka

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