Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:08am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Set To Gap Up into The Week
NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price worked higher overnight, eventually coming into balance inside last Wednesday’s range.
The economic calendar starts off slow this week. We only have a 3- and 6-mont T-bill auction to monitor at 11:30am.
Last week began with a gap higher and one-and-a-half day rally. Then, after a sharp reversal Tuesday afternoon, there was a big gap down Wednesday. But buyers bought it up all day. Then Thursday was gap down again, and this time a trend down printed. However, much of the progress made by sellers on Thursday was retraced Friday. Below, the last week performance of each major index is shown:
On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. When an early drive lower failed to take out the Thursday low, instead sharply reversing one tick ahead of the low, buyers reacted and stepped in. Then, in the afternoon they became initiative, eventually closing the day out near last Thursday’s midpoint.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5837.75. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 5837.25, setting up a move to target 5831 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers lurch up through overnight high 5878, trading up to 5884 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher. Buyers sustain price above 5884 setting up a move to target 5900.
Greetings from the 40th floor observation deck lads!
After a rousing meteor shower, the sun has risen and burned away the thin veil of clouds on the horizon, revealing the scene below. The United States (IRONIC) is a divided place with belligerent retards on the outer poles of civilization. Nationalism is a disease. The infection roots the moment your brain accepts the silly lines drawn on maps dividing up spaceship earth. Then there is toxic liberalism, which desires some utopian equality, which will forever be unattainable as long as we have freedom over how our time is spent.
And I like having freedom over how my time is spent.
There is a solar eclipse coming soon. May it smite the southern supremacists’ eyeballs, melting them clean out of their dirty, white skulls, rendering their small brains unable to receive the visual inputs they so readily use to judge other humans by.
Aside from the disgusting humanity on display in the south, there is a rather comical media parade surrounding the nuclear posturing happening between N.Korea and our authoritarian leader. Any intelligent person knows the nuke talk is not to be taken seriously. North Korea always throws these little fits. Then South Korea sends them a few crates of food and it is back to business as usual. If the nuclear scare was actually legitimate, oil would react. Oil has not reacted.
There was some selling in the stock market last week but not the kind that causes the perceptions of all humans to shift. During the same super negative news cycle week, Our True Leader, Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) floated $1.5 billion dollars worth of junk bonds. The deal was in such high demand that he actually ended up getting $1.8 billion dorrah, har har harrr. At an interest rate of about 5.5% HOT DAMN. That is what us treasury nerds call good debt.
The bond offering speaks volumes to the overall health of the financial markets. As do the crypto-currencies. They are a bizarre and disruptive force, especially to the central bank cartels who inhabit our made-up nations. Bitcoin has no boundaries and is rooted in mathematics, the only proper language humans have devised so far.
You should thank the next Persian you see for inventing algebra.
Real quick, let me explain the best way to trade bitcoin. Acquire some. And never sell it. Ever. Just like $TSLA.
All things considered, and after airing out my grievances to you, the loyal reader, I think we head higher to start the week. Does the selling feel complete? Not really, there are subtle nuances, complications as the British say, that suggest we could see more downside. These matters are covered in detail in the Exodus Strategy Session, which was just published behind the only walls I hold sacred, the walls that keep the barbarians away from my precious stock market data.
The model is neutral so there is not much conviction behind today’s call. Therefore I will be taking the week real despacito. Like come Monday at 9:30am New York, I will probably be weeding my garden or arguing with the Albanians down the street.
Let it do as it will, and when an edge is revealed, attack like a crocodile. Just like life inside a Mexican prison.
Distinguished Exodus Members, the 144th Exodus Strategy Session is live. It was prepared with objectivity and it is an honor to share my research with you. Go check it out!
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:23am ESTComments Off on Extreme Volume Trades Overnight on The NASDAQ While It Goes Nowhere
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range. Price worked down through the Thursday low overnight before settling into balance. At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out slightly worse than expected.
There are no other major economic events scheduled for today.
Yesterday we printed a trend down. Price began the day gap down and we pushed lower off the open, gap-and-go. Then we continued lower, pushing down into the 7/13 range before two way trade ensued.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5789. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5761. Look for buyers down at 5753.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers trade up to 5813.25 before we reverse and turn lower. We take out Thursday low 5783.25 briefly before two way trade ensue.
Hypo 3 strong buyers work up to 5827 then sustain trade in this range, triggering a rally up to 5854.75 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:49am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Pressured Lower During Extended Trade
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked lower, nonstop, overnight, in a slow and steady manner. The overnight session held inside of Wednesday’s price range. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was mixed.
Also on the economic calendar today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. After beginning the day with a significant gap down, an early attempt lower stalled out just below overnight low. Then we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning higher.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower. Look for sellers to press down through Wednesday low 5861.75 and continue lower, down to 5846.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5835.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5922.75 then continue higher, up through overnight high 5924.50. Look for sellers up at 5938.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Wed Aug 9, 2017 9:16am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Trading Plan for Day After Trump’s Nuclear Posturing
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked lower all night after our authoritarian leader took a hard, nuclear stance against the petulant nation of North Korea. Price worked down near last week’s lows, but has not yet breached them.
The economic calendar is light today but crude oil inventory at 10:30am may carry more weight considering we may be headed to war. There’s also a 10-year Note auction at 1pm. It will be interesting to see how that government debt is received with nukes being so casually discussed.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down that was quickly bought up. Buyers continued to initiate risk, pressing well-up-into the hard selling back on 7/27. Then, the bids dried up, and we reversed the entire day’s range, making a new session low, pushing us neutral, then closing near low-of-day, earning the extreme designation.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower. Look for buyers down at 5841 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2, a return to the ‘scene of the crime’. Buyers press into the overnight inventory and work up through overnight high 5919.25. They continue higher, up to 5938 to see if sellers meant business yesterday.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5805.25 before two way trade ensues.
Tue Aug 8, 2017 9:07am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Down A Touch Heading into Tuesday
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked lower overnight during a balanced session.
On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The week began with a gap up that sellers were unable to fill. Once sellers failed, buyers were inspired to initiate fresh risk, pressing the market higher, slowly, for the remainder of the session.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5933.25. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5937.75. Look for sellers up at 5942.25 then two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers work down to 5913 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the weekly gap down to 5898, then continue lower, down to 5888 before two way trade ensues.
Mon Aug 7, 2017 9:07am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Begins Week Higher Heading into Partial Lunar Eclipse
NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session that took out last Friday’s high.
The economic calendar is light all week. Today we have only a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, then Consumer Credit at 3pm. Our planet is experiencing a somewhat uncommon phenomenon however. Several parts of Europe and Asia will be able to view a partial lunar eclipse. The alignment can fuss with the waves generated on land, and perhaps the waves generated by humans on the stock exchange. There is no objective proof to back up this claim.
Last week the Dow Jones cruised higher, the Russell lower, the S&P marked time, and the NASDAQ had consistent morning selling pressure but no real follow through in the afternoons. Here is the performance of each major index next week:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day. Normal days are statistically uncommon, occurring about 5% of the time. We printed a normal day on Thursday AND Friday. Oddly calm. Both days began with a gap up that was quickly resolved by sellers. The selling was dynamic Friday morning, creating an initial balance so wide it was not taken out for the remainder of the session.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5898. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5894.75. Look for buyers down around 5880 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5921.50 and continue higher to 5932 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5841 before two way trade ensues.
Note: Today’s partial lunar eclipse is merely an opening act to the total solar eclipse that will occur over North America on August 21st.
Coming into last week bearish was a boon for NASDAQ traders. I personally helped close five up-gaps on the week, securing my freedom from the cubicle for another couple of months. But alas, our market edge has expired and now we are back being neutral. Which is fine. August is the Sunday of months. You know summer is coming to an end, but it is still the weekend so soak it in.
Ironically enough, and much to the chagrin of the Old Testament, I work hardest on Sundays. Therefore, I shall also work hardest in August. The 31 days of August serve as an opportunity to race ahead of your competition. What project can you pushing over the finish line these next 25 days?
Conversely, the markets are not working hard. In fact, they are drifting along in quite the lazy manner. With a neutral bias, my only intention is to scalp my price levels. Time away from the markets will be spent retooling my office and updating the statistics behind my trades.
There are subtle cues inside Exodus that suggest sellers may continue being the dominate force on the NASDAQ until Wednesday. If, during the early days of next week sellers manage to make a substantial push lower, I may be inclined to reassert my focus to short selling the futures market.
Models are neutral. The edge I carried into the last two weeks with the help of IndexModel has abated, and August grind is upon us. You have 25 days left. Go forth and hustle lads, they will wonder how you have come so far.
Exodus members, the 143rd Edition of Strategy Session is live. Go check out why we think selling pressure may continue through Wednesday.
Fri Aug 4, 2017 9:15am ESTComments Off on Strong Jobs Numbers Are Yawned Off, NASDAQ Up A Touch Heading into Friday
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked slightly higher overnight before balancing out. This is the fifth gap up we have seen this week. At 8:30am Non-farm Payroll data was slightly better than expected. So the the reaction is mute.
There are no other economic events today.
Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but. They only occur about 5% of the time. The day began with a gap up and sellers pushed hard off the open. Then, the rest of the day was spent trading inside the range established during the first hour of trade. Balanced.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close teh gap down to 5889.50. From here, we continue lower, down through overnight low 5881. Buyers show up just below and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers push down to 5840.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5906.50 and continue higher, up to 5942 before two way trade ensues.
Around 6pm, for the first time in years, I will raise the Periscope and go live…on Periscope. Periscope is one of Twitter’s curious acquisitions that seems best suited for pressing aggressive political agendas and Q-and-A with models of the Instagram variety.
But today it will be used by yours truly to broadcast a portion of the first ever Stocktwits Detroit investors conference hosted by me. There have been others, but the record will show that they pale in comparison to the grandeur of today’s gathering of minds.
We will be discussing domination of the financial markets, ways to avoid working for the man, and any questions that arise from the peanut gallery.
So tune in around 6pm New York on my Twitter @IndexModel, and look for the live Periscope. Note: @Indexmodel is also the name on Periscope if you want to access the channel directly from that platform.