Washout

115 views

Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.

Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.

This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.

Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03042015

 

Oil Bulls Trying To Make a Run

123 views

After seven attempts lower from the highly trafficked VPOC, the market is now for a third day drifting up and away from the scene.

The $51 level has been the scene of responsive buying twice in recent history. Early on my primary expectation is for buyers to probe above the recent high and target $51.545. Otherwise a second scenario would be sellers whacking prices lower to start the return to MCVPOC $49.10.

Here’s a picture of the intermediate term traffic jam:

QM_VP_03042015

IS THIS THE TOP?

529 views

When prices go up, our job is to determine whether the market has done a good job finding sellers. If it has, then it can trade lower. Today we opened gap down, and had a sharp move lower which may have looked somewhat alarming on the surface.

Structurally, sellers had a lay-up profile structure to work with, the “zipper” aka single prints left behind yesterday. There was certainly some higher time frame selling this morning, but it was almost instantly met with higher time frame responsive buying. Now we have a battle.

I was rendered useless mid-day by allowing the optometrist to dilate my pupils. It didn’t seem like a big deal while I was at Costco (aka heaven) but when I returned home I could not see any of the numbers or words on the screens. Talk about some perspective—be grateful for your sensory abilities.

The Calm Before The Storm

501 views

The economic calendar is quiet this morning but the week is back-loaded with events. Keep in mind Fed Chair Yellen is speaking around 8pm this evening about bank regulation. We also have ADP employment data tomorrow morning before the open.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened gap up to start the week and sellers were not quite able to fill the overnight gap.   Instead buyers stepped in and made a strong drive up early on. Shortly after we went range extension up before falling back to the MID which lined up with the value area high from 2/26. Buyers then executed a second wave of buying, a completion wave. Overnight price has been drifting lower and spent several potions of the globex session trading 1-time frame down.

Heading into today my primary expectation buyers to push into the overnight inventory early on and target a gap fill up to 4478.50 then 2-way consolidation between 4478 and 4463.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers continue to push during the open, take out 4463.50 to test 4460.75. If no responsive buyers show then look for a fast push down the single prints to take out Monday’s low 4449.75. Look for responsive buying at 4447.25.

Hypo 3 is we push up through yesterday’s close 4478.75 and continue pushing higher prices.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VPMP_03032015

Oil Throwing Down Clean Auctions

340 views

Oil went for a slow grind higher overnight only to be smacked down early this morning. The responsive seller took action ahead of yesterday’s high $51 and pushed us right back to the LVN at 49.84.

I sincerely hope that as I continue to track this commodity you begin seeing the value behind viewing market behavior like an auction. The compliance to value is oil has been nothing short of impressive these last several weeks.

This week has been no exception—the confluence of value area high and micro composite high volume node around $51 was the key reference point for the reversal.

The thick ‘gravitational pull’ of the micro composite point of control continues to behave like a magnet for price down at $49.13.

The Gaussian curve formations show the levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to use this early momentum to target the MCVPOC at $49.13. The level I am more interested in for signs of responsive buying is $48.875, the value area low of 2/26.

Levels are below:

QM_MP_03032015

Always Working A New Angle

453 views

Let’s not kid ourselves—chasing momentum has been a selective endeavor. One cannot simply spray and pray for 1 or 2 winners. That game is break even, at least the way I am playing it. But the winners can still pay down the losers and pay the trader who is refined and selective and has some clear expectations.

If you’re finding the market is not hitting your mark, perhaps temper your expectations just a tad.

I am often working a new idea. When you spend a big chunk of your time objectively observing the minutia of an auction you develop subtle insight into it. It is divine, but often you have to develop new tools and strategy as you go because what works one week is tapioca pudding the next.

Some people go mad over the uncertainty of it all. But if you develop some core fundamentals, boulders, then build around them you can express yourself creatively and see immense benefit.

My newest avenue is working 8:30am data announcements. Like this morning’s Personal Consumption figures. The market is often docile before stocks open, yet you know there is an elevated likelihood for news to bring in order flow. Therefore, you sit and watch for a setup to try and grab onto a wave before it flows in.

A few times this leads into trading through the open with a position on which will spur even more order flow. If you have some confidence trading the opening swing, you can earn an honest living by 10am.

Then, if you choose, you can spend the rest of your day roaming the streets collecting cans, explore other business opportunity, talk with family and friends, etc. Life choices become are real necessity, not just something you dreamed about from your prison cell (cubicle).

If I can make more money in 2 hours then I used to make in a week, why work the entire day? That’s just greed.

Nothing Sexy About My Latest Trade

258 views

zack-morris

There will be no exuberant, headline grabbing action from a name like Deere. However, there just aren’t many that can run like a Deere.

Therefore, I started a new position in DE, looking for the long overdue $100 roll.

“OK Goggle”

290 views

The article below is from last week’s Weekly Strategy Session. We also caught a nice chunk of this move in Google live in the 12631 trading room:

Let’s revisit the 4 pillars of technology and add in some of the supporting cast members.

To recap, during the 01/19/15 Strategy Session we began looking at shares of Amazon as a “tell” to the durability of momentum stocks. It had a bearish technical setup to start the year and many short-term traders were leaning short. The stock started to “work” for shorts only to sharply reverse back into its consolidation pattern and then gap-and-go higher on earnings.

Then on 02/02 we looked at the potential “failed auction” in shares of Apple. In essence, this technical setup is the opposite of what was occurring in Amazon. On the surface, Apple was making new highs in an uptrend. But, it briefly took out the prior high and then had a fast move lower. Therefore, we hypothesized it may do the opposite of Amazon and punish short-term traders who took the obvious long. It did not. Instead it turned out a strong week for the bulls.

Last week our attention was on Facebook. It was up to bat for the bulls and managed to hit a proverbial double, gaining over 5% on the week.

Following this logic, Google is the next pillar to have on watch. If you recall, the four pillars of technology is a naming convention Google Chairman Eric Schmidt used during a 2012 Bloomberg interview.

From a year-to-date performance standpoint, Google is still slightly outperforming Facebook. But from a rotational point of view, Google is quite a bit behind some of the other marquee names. Check out the year to date performances of these hot money stocks:

02222015_HotMoneyPerf

Ease into March

181 views

Heading into the new month the Nasdaq is trading up a few points. The overnight auction has been on normal range and volume and shows sellers having the slight edge for most of the session. This is shown by rotation size and the weaker looking session low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for prices to close the overnight gap to 4448 and then test higher to the VPOC at 4457.75. Overnight high is also up there at 4458 if buyers can take out the ONH the look to continue and test swing high 4464.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through Friday close 4448 and take out overnight low 4446.5. If buyers no show at 4440 mCVPOC then take out weak low at 4429.25 and target NVPOC 4418.

Levels:NQ_VPMP_02022015

Washout

115 views

Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.

Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.

This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.

Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.

Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VP_03042015

 

Oil Bulls Trying To Make a Run

123 views

After seven attempts lower from the highly trafficked VPOC, the market is now for a third day drifting up and away from the scene.

The $51 level has been the scene of responsive buying twice in recent history. Early on my primary expectation is for buyers to probe above the recent high and target $51.545. Otherwise a second scenario would be sellers whacking prices lower to start the return to MCVPOC $49.10.

Here’s a picture of the intermediate term traffic jam:

QM_VP_03042015

IS THIS THE TOP?

529 views

When prices go up, our job is to determine whether the market has done a good job finding sellers. If it has, then it can trade lower. Today we opened gap down, and had a sharp move lower which may have looked somewhat alarming on the surface.

Structurally, sellers had a lay-up profile structure to work with, the “zipper” aka single prints left behind yesterday. There was certainly some higher time frame selling this morning, but it was almost instantly met with higher time frame responsive buying. Now we have a battle.

I was rendered useless mid-day by allowing the optometrist to dilate my pupils. It didn’t seem like a big deal while I was at Costco (aka heaven) but when I returned home I could not see any of the numbers or words on the screens. Talk about some perspective—be grateful for your sensory abilities.

The Calm Before The Storm

501 views

The economic calendar is quiet this morning but the week is back-loaded with events. Keep in mind Fed Chair Yellen is speaking around 8pm this evening about bank regulation. We also have ADP employment data tomorrow morning before the open.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened gap up to start the week and sellers were not quite able to fill the overnight gap.   Instead buyers stepped in and made a strong drive up early on. Shortly after we went range extension up before falling back to the MID which lined up with the value area high from 2/26. Buyers then executed a second wave of buying, a completion wave. Overnight price has been drifting lower and spent several potions of the globex session trading 1-time frame down.

Heading into today my primary expectation buyers to push into the overnight inventory early on and target a gap fill up to 4478.50 then 2-way consolidation between 4478 and 4463.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers continue to push during the open, take out 4463.50 to test 4460.75. If no responsive buyers show then look for a fast push down the single prints to take out Monday’s low 4449.75. Look for responsive buying at 4447.25.

Hypo 3 is we push up through yesterday’s close 4478.75 and continue pushing higher prices.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_VPMP_03032015

Oil Throwing Down Clean Auctions

340 views

Oil went for a slow grind higher overnight only to be smacked down early this morning. The responsive seller took action ahead of yesterday’s high $51 and pushed us right back to the LVN at 49.84.

I sincerely hope that as I continue to track this commodity you begin seeing the value behind viewing market behavior like an auction. The compliance to value is oil has been nothing short of impressive these last several weeks.

This week has been no exception—the confluence of value area high and micro composite high volume node around $51 was the key reference point for the reversal.

The thick ‘gravitational pull’ of the micro composite point of control continues to behave like a magnet for price down at $49.13.

The Gaussian curve formations show the levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to use this early momentum to target the MCVPOC at $49.13. The level I am more interested in for signs of responsive buying is $48.875, the value area low of 2/26.

Levels are below:

QM_MP_03032015

Always Working A New Angle

453 views

Let’s not kid ourselves—chasing momentum has been a selective endeavor. One cannot simply spray and pray for 1 or 2 winners. That game is break even, at least the way I am playing it. But the winners can still pay down the losers and pay the trader who is refined and selective and has some clear expectations.

If you’re finding the market is not hitting your mark, perhaps temper your expectations just a tad.

I am often working a new idea. When you spend a big chunk of your time objectively observing the minutia of an auction you develop subtle insight into it. It is divine, but often you have to develop new tools and strategy as you go because what works one week is tapioca pudding the next.

Some people go mad over the uncertainty of it all. But if you develop some core fundamentals, boulders, then build around them you can express yourself creatively and see immense benefit.

My newest avenue is working 8:30am data announcements. Like this morning’s Personal Consumption figures. The market is often docile before stocks open, yet you know there is an elevated likelihood for news to bring in order flow. Therefore, you sit and watch for a setup to try and grab onto a wave before it flows in.

A few times this leads into trading through the open with a position on which will spur even more order flow. If you have some confidence trading the opening swing, you can earn an honest living by 10am.

Then, if you choose, you can spend the rest of your day roaming the streets collecting cans, explore other business opportunity, talk with family and friends, etc. Life choices become are real necessity, not just something you dreamed about from your prison cell (cubicle).

If I can make more money in 2 hours then I used to make in a week, why work the entire day? That’s just greed.

Nothing Sexy About My Latest Trade

258 views

zack-morris

There will be no exuberant, headline grabbing action from a name like Deere. However, there just aren’t many that can run like a Deere.

Therefore, I started a new position in DE, looking for the long overdue $100 roll.

“OK Goggle”

290 views

The article below is from last week’s Weekly Strategy Session. We also caught a nice chunk of this move in Google live in the 12631 trading room:

Let’s revisit the 4 pillars of technology and add in some of the supporting cast members.

To recap, during the 01/19/15 Strategy Session we began looking at shares of Amazon as a “tell” to the durability of momentum stocks. It had a bearish technical setup to start the year and many short-term traders were leaning short. The stock started to “work” for shorts only to sharply reverse back into its consolidation pattern and then gap-and-go higher on earnings.

Then on 02/02 we looked at the potential “failed auction” in shares of Apple. In essence, this technical setup is the opposite of what was occurring in Amazon. On the surface, Apple was making new highs in an uptrend. But, it briefly took out the prior high and then had a fast move lower. Therefore, we hypothesized it may do the opposite of Amazon and punish short-term traders who took the obvious long. It did not. Instead it turned out a strong week for the bulls.

Last week our attention was on Facebook. It was up to bat for the bulls and managed to hit a proverbial double, gaining over 5% on the week.

Following this logic, Google is the next pillar to have on watch. If you recall, the four pillars of technology is a naming convention Google Chairman Eric Schmidt used during a 2012 Bloomberg interview.

From a year-to-date performance standpoint, Google is still slightly outperforming Facebook. But from a rotational point of view, Google is quite a bit behind some of the other marquee names. Check out the year to date performances of these hot money stocks:

02222015_HotMoneyPerf

Ease into March

181 views

Heading into the new month the Nasdaq is trading up a few points. The overnight auction has been on normal range and volume and shows sellers having the slight edge for most of the session. This is shown by rotation size and the weaker looking session low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for prices to close the overnight gap to 4448 and then test higher to the VPOC at 4457.75. Overnight high is also up there at 4458 if buyers can take out the ONH the look to continue and test swing high 4464.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through Friday close 4448 and take out overnight low 4446.5. If buyers no show at 4440 mCVPOC then take out weak low at 4429.25 and target NVPOC 4418.

Levels:NQ_VPMP_02022015