iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,950 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Futures Stable into Last Full Week on May

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in a stable manner, holding inside last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar is light today.  We only have to be aware of the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.  Also, a reminder, there are FOMC Minutes out Wednesday afternoon.

Last week US markets worked higher through Tuesday before liquidating hard ahead of the Wednesday open, based off politics.  The selling continued through all of Wednesday, then we spent the rest of the week working back up-and-into the news driven move.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and a small drive higher before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5635.50 then continues lower, down through overnight low 5648.75 and continuing lower, down to close the gap at 5629.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5665.25 and slowly work higher, up to 5700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press a liquidation down to 5563.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Debating Selling in May

Greetings from America’s fertile crescent!

After a morning spent toiling away in the laboratory, it is will a sense of relief that we observe the latest results of the Index Model, which has flipped back to neutral after two weeks of bullish signalling.

Despite the precipitous fall in market prices last Wednesday, having a long bias has served our team well.  We pressed our longs and were rewarded.  Interestingly enough, there were subtle cues before the Wednesday liquidation to start working the other side of the tape.

If your inputs are objective and logical, you can confidently switch your bias in the heat of the action.

All of the planning that goes into my approach—the Sunday Strategy Sessions, the morning reports, Switchboard—is what allows me to trade well.  By doing my homework in public forum, it is my hope that something about what we do can make sense to someone starting out.  Like a nudge in the direction of what works for me.

There is so much garbage out there about trading.  So many people are basing their decisions on news reports or worse, gut instinct.

Every opportunity taken by the good folks of iBankCoin laboratory is decided by the algorithms inside Exodus and the scores generated by the Index Model.

With that being said, and heading into the last full week of May, we may raise some cash.  There are no clear bearish signals being offered.  However, June is the most bearish month of the year, per the $QQQ, see below:

Pair the upcoming seasonality with some of the bearish undertones noted in the 132nd Edition of Strategy Session (Exodus members, it is live now, go check it out) and you have a logical reason to raise a bit of cash.

When and how we shall do so, as always, is TBD.

There are FOMC Minutes out Wednesday afternoon.  Perhaps the reaction to this economic event will help to tilt the debate of whether or not to sell IN May.

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Here’s Your Thursday Edition of NASDAQ Midday Roundup

NASDAQ futures came into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower and our current swing low, just above a gap left behind on April 26th, occurred during extended trading hours, this is contextually bearish.

Market profiles are ugly, which means day-trading opportunities are elevated, and also means the higher time frame is interacting with the markets.  Key /NQ_F Levels, and ugly profiles [out-of-balance] are pictured below:

We had some economic statistics this morning.  What’s interesting about an out-of-balance market is economic non-events like Initial/Continuing Jobless claims, which haven’t moved the market for months, suddenly impact prices. Both Philly Fed and Initial/Continuing claims were better-than-expected and the market rallied shortly after.

We have a ‘news driven’ framework to trade around, given that the overall consensus among investors is that the selling seen all day Wednesday was attributed to the actions being taken by U.S. Intelligence Agencies and the White House.  Our primary expectation is for the market to ‘return to the scene of the crime’ or check back to where the initial reaction occurred.

The scene of the crime gap, volume profiles, and measured moves are pictured below:

Part of what goes into my daily planning is what I call Switchboard.  It is my ‘all things considered’ spreadsheet, which takes everything discussed above, and as objectively as possible codes it into a trading bias.

Considering everything discussed above, Switchboard is currently neutral. See below:

You may notice the June Fed Rate decision is already on our radar.  Per the CME Fed futures, there is currently a 64.6% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike on June 14th, see below:

Heading into the afternoon and evening, my primary expectation is for this ugly profile to start taking shape, with value around 5605.  Looking to buy below and sell above, working the neutral bias until more information is made available.

Remember we’re talking NASDAQ futures, June expiry.

Trade’em’well

 

 

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Extreme Trading Overnight Sees NASDAQ Lower into Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  All the upside achieved Monday/Tuesday was reversed during extended trade before two way trade ensued.  At 7am the MBA Mortgage applications data was worse than last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.  Also, at 11am the New York Fed will release its Household Debt and Credit report.  This report will likely contain major implications of a June rate hike.

Investors are currently pricing in a 69.2% probability of a rate hike on June 14th, according the CME’s Fed Fund futures.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price worked lower early on, closing the overnight gap reversing and traversing the entire daily range and going range extension up.  Buyers then added a bit more near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower, down to 5676 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling pushes down through 5670, setting up a move to 5659.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5724.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Begins Tuesday at Record High

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Monday range until about 6:30am, then it made new record highs.  As we approach the open, the market is sustaining the gains.  At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits data was issued.

Also on the docket today we have Industrial Production at 9:15am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  There was a morning rally, then two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher, up to 5722.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers sustain trade above 5722.75 setting up a trend day.

Hypo 3 sellers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5701 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Starts Option Expiration Week Flat

NASDAQ futures are coming into the third week of May flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new record highs during Globex trade, but returned to flat soon after.

The economic calendar is light all week and today is no different.  At 10am we have the Housing Market Index, at 11:30 the US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills, $39B and $33B respectively.  Also at 4pm we have Long-term TIC flows.

Last week markets worked sideways more-or-less, with the NASDAQ on a slight drift higher.  The performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up.  After a choppy initial balance [first hour of trade] sellers briefly pushed price range extension down, but the market caught a bid before closing the overnight gap and traversed the entire daily range eventually close at record highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5683.50 and trade down to 5676.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5700.25 and explore open air.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5670 before two way, balance trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Still Bullish Heading into May Option Expiration

Greetings and happy Mother’s Day from the hard working scientists at iBankCoin laboratory!

Despite being a subject matter that many find uninteresting, and perhaps because it is presented every.single.Sunday (131 weeks running) in a lighthearted manner, another overlooked Exodus Strategy Session has been prepared.  At the core of it is a live quantitative trading model which serves our team quite well when it comes time to trade.

The preparations are done Sunday, with a best possible effort, in order to A. ensure we have the proper information in place to make objective decisions and B. instill the type of confidence that comes from creating your own working trading model.

This week is no different in that we have humbly prepared another Sunday report.  The only difference is we have a live signal going into next week.  It is the same signal that triggered last Sunday which called for a calm, sideways drift.  A marking of time.

While the world was going bananas over our authoritarian leader, the model called the market right again.  No mayhem, no May punishment for investors.  Smooth sailing last week was, unless you were heavily positioned in bank stocks.

Therein lies the beauty of a quantitative and objective approach to financial markets.  They do not care about your latest freakout, and if your emotional conduct is being factored into how you engage the market, you are setting yourself up for bitter failure.

Which is fine.  Maybe you need to fail, not that it is something the good folks at iBC labs with for you.  We create tools that can empower you to take control of your investment decisions in an objective way.  And while the toolkit may seem esoteric, we will do everything we can to make it more accessible for you, including live one-on-one support.

Yes, you heard right, you could have a personal discussion with yours truly about the software.  And if you have already had a phone demo, and you are still struggling to properly deploy an investing/trading approach that works for you, let’s circle back around at see if we can make it fit your workflow.

In summary, the the sell in May axiom has been a misguided story passed down by old men so far, according to 2017 performance.  However, the idea is not to sell before May, or after May, but in May.  So conditions could change during/after option expiration’s week.  Do you have the models in place to make that important assertion?

Get at me.

And again, Happy Mother’s Day.  If there is one day of the entire year your belligerent ass could project stability it is today.  Women tend to worry way to much.  Ease their burden.  Barbecue some local poultry, hopefully birds that lived a good life, in nature.  Or at the least, were allowed to roam open pastures.

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Sangamo Announces Collaboration with Pfizer; CRISPR Stocks Rage Higher

Thursday morning shares of Sangamo Therapeutics, a company that tinkers with DNA in pursuit of immortality [ticker: $SGMO] opened up more than +50% after announcing a strategic collaboration with Pfizer.

Let me put this into hip-hop terms so you social media types can understand it.  Pfizer has all that pharmaceutical money—$19.45 billion dollars in cash, according to Exodus.

Pfizer generated $14.08 billion in cash flow over the last 12 months.  They are the third biggest cash generator in the drug dealing game.

Data courtesy of Exodus Market Intelligence

Pfizer is the Dr. Dre of selling drugs to the masses, if compared to the 2017 Forbes hip-hop top earning artists:

If you were to say, take a lesser know hip-hop artist, like a scrappy white dude from Detroit, and put him on a track with a hip-hop legend, instantly the outsider is legitimized.

The scenario described above is what has fueled a two-day rally in $SGMO that spiked shares up by more than +85%.  On Friday other CRISPR names, which were discussed in these hallowed halls earlier this year, began popping alongside Sangamo.

Full Disclosure: The writer currently owns $SGMO and other CRISPR plays

CRISPR is an acronym that stands for clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats which basically means they can chop up and rebind living DNA.  By doing so they might be able to cure major diseases—CURE—not treat.

Cures are worth way more than treatments.  This is the extent of my understanding of the biotechnology.  It was presented to me by my top scientist and since then the science has been affirmed, without provocation, by the most intelligent medical professional I know.  It was also discussed by the one the the Exodus greats, JungleeGirl.

There was a major battle between UC Berkeley and MIT over who owns patents on the use of CRISPR.  As of today, the east coast thugs at MIT own the patented rights.  Seeing two well-known institutions caught up in a feverish dispute really makes it seem like there is a fire somewhere, behind all the smoke.

Then I began applying some analogous techniques passed down by the Option Addict, and noticed the entire space looked aligned with discouragement. If that assumption holds true, then the moves happening this second week of the fifth month under our new authoritarian regime could be just the beginning.

This is my top theme trade of 2017.  Everything else I own falls into five categories:

  1. Systematically chosen by Exodus
  2. Outsourced to The Fly
  3. Super boring dividend stocks
  4. Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader)
  5. dicks, everywhere (see Section III)

CRISPR stocks are catching a bid across the board as investors voted ‘yes’ for an immortality elixir, the biggest attempt yet to alter what many consider to be fate.

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After A Brief Loose Moment, NASDAQ Stabilized, Friday Has Markings of A Rally

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was contained to the upper half of Thursday’s range during extended trade.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales data both came out worse than expected.

Also on the docket today we have the preliminary May reading of Confidence by the University of Michigan at 10am followed by the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap down and sellers pushing down near the Monday/weekly lows.  Down here, in the late morning, the market found a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day rallying, with price stalling just 1-tick shy of the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 5672.50 then continue higher to close the gap at 5675. Look for sellers up at 5677.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press to new weekly high, up to 5688.50 then sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into the weekend.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 5656.50 triggering a liquidation down to 5637.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Seeks and Finds A Bid During Extended Trade

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, in a one-way auction lower, trading down to the open gap from Monday’s close before turning higher.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was better than expected.

There are no other economic events scheduled for today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  A neutral day the day after a normal day, interesting.  Price opened gap up and sellers pushed off the open, ultimately stalling before filling the gap down at 5655 which was the primary hypothesis from Wednesday morning’s trading report.  Price then traversed the entire daily range to make a new high of day, going neutral, before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5675.  Action gets choppy from here, but we manage to take out overnight high 5676.50 before it is all said and done.

Hypo 2 we push down through overnight low 5655 and find a bid just below, at 5652.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5639.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moved:

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