Friday, October 28, 2016
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,678 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Gets Clown Stomped After The Bell on Horrific Amazon Earnings


NASDAQ futures made a hard move lower Thursday afternoon, after-market-close when earnings from Amazon came out well below analysts’ expectations:

Amazon Reports Q3 GAAP EPS $0.52 vs. Est. $0.78 May Not Compare, Rev. $32.7B vs. Est. $32.69B

Gene Munster chimed in on the matter, saying Amazons top-line outlook is, “a little weak,” but thinks the operating margin guidance is the main factor weighing on shares.

AMZN shares have traded as low as $775 after hours, prices unseen since mid September.

Meanwhile Alphabet, which is what we are forced to call Google (ticker symbol: GOOG or GOOGL) beat analyst expectations and is trading slightly higher:

Alphabet Reports Q3 EPS $9.06 vs. Est. $8.64, Rev. $22.45B vs. Est. $22.05B

Shares in the search giant are up about 2% after hours but doing little to put a bid in the NASDAQ, which is showing a hard-red knife candle into the close:


In other, non-important news, Microsoft’s LinkedIn, a social network for phonies dressed in their finest ape suits, reported decent earnings after the bell also:

LinkedIn Reports Q3 EPS $1.18 vs. Est. $0.91, Rev. $960M vs. Est. $959.35M

But nobody cares.  Everyone is devastated by the greatest retailer of all time, Amazon, who doesn’t care about making money, only eliminating the American retailer, via their deflationary vortex.

Expect the US household to benefit extremely little from the lower operating margins Amazon is putting in place ahead of BLACK FRIDAY and pagan X-mas.  Your wares will be modestly cheaper while seasonal work will be scant and the only people working overtime are FedEx delivery men.


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Dire Reports from Europe Send Acacia Communications Spiraling Lower $ACIA


There’s an old Chinese proverb about business:

“A chair with only two legs falls over. Three legs are stable; four even better.”

It is used to describe supply and distribution channels.  You do not want to be wholly dependent on a small group of customers or suppliers, otherwise the stability of your earnings is low.

Acacia Communications is a chair with two legs.  Their stock is down more than -10% today after their second-largest customer which trades in Europe guided materially lower.

Traders are concerned following the weak guidance from their top customer also, the Chinese multinational telecom ZTE Corp.  ZTE alone accounts for ~40% of Acacia’s business and guided weak late Wednesday evening.

Analysts are highlighting that, “~82% of Acacia’s business comes from its largest five customers.”

Stock in the optical/photonic industry are under heavy pressure amid the industry warnings; shares of OCLR, NPTN, LITE, AAOI, and FNSR are all trading lower.

Never afraid to catch a falling knife, Northland is out defending Acacia, saying their management strongly implied they were seeing supply constrains in the 100G cloud, and that ZTE commentary focused on wireless infrastructure which is different from Wireline/Optical infrastructure.

However the volatility in ACIA shares highlights the inherent risk investors face when investing in multinational corporations exposed to Europe and China.  As their economies continue to be pressured by geopolitical conflict and lack of leadership, the companies who are exposed will be affected.

ACIA went public in May 2016 and the IPO is up over +150% since.  The -10% performance today likely feels like a small speed bump to anyone who invested in this tech company early on.



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Mid-Morning NASDAQ Update


NASDAQ futures came into the morning gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight for the most part until a strong trust higher around 7am when earnings started rolling in.  Strong earnings from CELG may have accelerated the morning rally.

At 8:30am Durable Good Orders came in below expectations, also Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

At 10am Pending Home Sales data was better than expected:

USA Pending Home Sales (MoM) for Sep 1.50% vs 1.20% Est; Prior -2.40%

Also on the docket today we have a 7-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  After opening gap down price worked up to Tuesday’s low where sellers rejected a move back into it.  We then reversed the entire morning move before settling back into the middle of the days range.

This morning we opened gap up, near Wednesday’s high and saw a drive lower to close the overnight gap.

Heading into the meat of the trading day, my primary expectation is for sellers to work toward overnight low 4842.50 to target the MCVPOC at 4831.

Hypo 2 buyers defend around 4845 and two way trade ensues between 4866.75 and 4845.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down to 4825.25 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Tesla Q3 Deliveries 24,821, Up 114% Year-Over-Year


Tesla is spiking after hours Wednesday after reporting earnings.

Long live the Leader (all Praise and Glory to the Leader) Elon Musk and his team of scientists and engineers.

His organization will be remembered as the great Silicon Valley corporation to take the baton from Apple and continue advancing the United States and our technology and innovation.

Some details from their earnings:

Tesla Q3 GAAP Net Income $22 Mln Or $0.14 Per Share

Tesla Q3 Deliveries 24,821, Up 114% YoY

Q3 EPS $0.14 vs $0.09 Est., Adj. EPS $0.71, Sales $2.3B vs $2.35B

Congratulations to our Leader (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) for another solid quarterly performance.

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Latest WikiLeaks Expose The Back Door Drug Dealings That Make Insurance Premiums Increase 25%


This leaked email from Ira Magaziner, senior policy advisor and chief healthcare advisor to the Clinton Foundation shows the way the foundation fights to keep affordable generic AIDS medicine out of the United States to protect Big Pharma:


It goes on to show a donation to the foundation can keep the drug dealers’ margins fat, or phat, whatever; pay to play:


In case you’re wondering why insurance premiums are sky high, one of the reasons is massive profit margins on life saving drugs.  These companies must be incentivized to push a new drug or therapy through the pipeline, fine.  However there is some fuckery going on that allows drug prices to maintain artificially high prices, to ultimately be paid out by insurance companies, who subsequently jack up their premiums, deductibles, etc.

And according to the WikiLeaks emails referenced above hot off the #PodestaEmails19 drop, it seems the Clinton Foundation is doing their part to ensure this practice continues.

Without removing these elitists and their close ties to Big Pharma, gratuitous rates for drugs, drugs Americans guzzle down by the bottle, will continue to put weight on the average US home’s budget.

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Apple Earnings Pressure An Otherwise Strong NASDAQ


NASDAQ futures are coming into mid-week gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price initially popped higher, post-Apple earnings, before turning lower and pressing down into last week’s highs and catching a bid.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came in below last week’s reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-Year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and also a 5-year Note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  An early 2-way auction gave way to sellers initiating lower prices slowly and methodically.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and test Tuesday’s low around 4877 before rolling over and heading lower, down through overnight low 4853 to target the open weekly gap down at 4843.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go, push down through overnight low 4853, close gap down at 4843.25 then target the MCVPOC at 4831 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work a full gap fill up to 4888 triggering a pole climb up to 4900 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Here’s A Handy Google Spreadsheet With Links to The Best #PodestaEmails


Someone did the grunt work of organizing, annotating, and logging more than 500 of the best emails from the WikiLeaks drip campaign of John Podesta emails.

It is a great resource if you’re trying to see which emails relate to specific injustices like “Self-Incrimination/Public Image Destruction” or “Foreign Policy”.

You can use the auto filters on the spreadsheet (The ID# column, for example) to quickly dial into only the emails you want to see:


Here’s the link:


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Russian Military Claims US-led Coalition Killed 60 Civilians in Mosul

airstrike is out with a report from the Russian military that US-led airstrikes have killed 60 civilians and injured at least 200 more.

According to the Russian military, among the civilian objects hit by US-led coalition airstrikes was a school for girls in southern Mosul, which was attacked last Friday.

ISIS has been running Mosul since June 2014.

There are approximately 1.5 million civilians living in the city, and the battles are expected to displace up to 200,000 of them.

US-led coalition says it has carried out 32 air strikes in the area over the last week.


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NASDAQ Makes New Highs; The Great Bull Continues To Run


NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new highs overnight before coming into balance early this morning.

On the economic calendar today we have the House Price Index at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price came into the morning gap up (pro gap) and buyers drover higher in the morning. Then, late in the afternoon buyers made a second initiative push to new highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4903.25.  From here look for a move down through overnight low 4900.75 then we find responsive buyers and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4919.50 and continue probing into open air.  More new highs.

Hypo 3 sellers work down to 4888.50 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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WATCH: Latest Project Veritas Video Implicates Hillary Clinton and Donna Brazile


Per the video description:

Part III of the undercover Project Veritas Action investigation dives further into the back room dealings of Democratic politics. It exposes prohibited communications between Hillary Clinton’s campaign, the DNC and the non-profit organization Americans United for Change. And, it’s all disguised as a duck. In this video, several Project Veritas Action undercover journalists catch Democracy Partners founder directly implicating Hillary Clinton in FEC violations. “In the end, it was the candidate, Hillary Clinton, the future president of the United States, who wanted ducks on the ground,” says Creamer in one of several exchanges. “So, by God, we would get ducks on the ground.” It is made clear that high-level DNC operative Creamer realized that this direct coordination between Democracy Partners and the campaign would be damning when he said: “Don’t repeat that to anybody.” The first video explained the dark secrets and the hidden connections and organizations the Clinton campaign uses to incite violence at Trump rallies. The second video exposed a diabolical step-by-step voter fraud strategy discussed by top Democratic operatives and showed one key operative admitting that the Democrats have been rigging elections for fifty years. This latest video takes this investigation even further.


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