Closing Thoughts
Try as you might, you can’t buy RGLD sub 50. Even when the opportunity presents itself, you’ll take to twitter and declare the next plunge in GDX.
Sometimes you don’t understand the force behind a play, but you go along with it anyway. Broadcasting stocks are strong, I bought NXST.
Heptics, get with it. IMMR
Your eyes are important. Take care to keep them healthy even if it means getting away from your monitor to see the doctor. No eyesight = no trader.
Utilities might actually die for bit. Frowny face AWK.
CREE might take some heat next week. I’m ready for that. I’m ready for lots of that. CREE is offering the EASIEST way for our country to reduce its energy consumption. They’re perfectly aligned with our administrations agenda, and they make lots of money. Hard to value but I continue to see all analyst coverage as short sighted.
FB is bracketed. If it comes unhinged and decimates investors again I will me very surprised.
INVN is another great story stock, I’ll tell you over a bonfire soon.
HAIN is quiet, HAIN is good.
DECK made a nice comeback today. I like comeback stories. I smell seller exhaustion.
ANGI has been my second most profitable stock of the year to trade. Who is to say I’m wrong at this juncture?
OMEX needs to find some sunken ship booty, stat.
Enjoy your holiday weekend. Electronic music invades Detroit in a big way every Memorial Weekend. I may partake mostly for the people watching. I’ll be in-and-out, preparing for to crush our shortened trading week come Tuesday.
Still Learning When to Fold’em
I had a very strong trading session early on, first selling the pop in the market when the durable goods order came in better than expected and earning four handles. Then I scalped a little bounce four 1.5 handles, then another short earning 1.5 handles.
Then there was a small loss trying long again.
Then another win on the short side, 1.5 handles.
Then three failed attempts at another short when I noted yesterday’s low holding. The market lost its structure, buyers were holding their levels, yet I was pressing shorts. I need to avoid this type of trading. I gave back ¾ of my daily gains going from big ass titties to all that work for peanuts.
Any advice from the experts on how to break such trading habits is appreciated. Otherwise I have to dig out these trading psychology books and do some introspective over the weekend.
I’m going for a short walk and then addressing these stocks. It’s bounce mode there could be some long opportunities.
Weak Pre Holiday Morning
Tip top of the morning, memorial weekend procrastinators!
The pre market has turned from moot to rather weak over the last hour, with sell flow pushing into the tape. We’re currently trading at the value area low of our 24 hour profile which is also a high volume node at 1639.50. We could see a bounce here, especially given the one direction nature of this most recent move.
Oddly enough, our profile yesterday took on the shape of a letter P which, in many cases, suggests we spent the session squeezing shorts. That’s relatively uncharacteristic of a large gap down, but I know many long traders who were green come market close yesterday, so it makes sense.
The question now becomes, was yesterday a temporary phenomenon to the upside? The attempt at filling the gap was impressive, so I give the buyers a pat on the back, but we are dealing with a heavy amount of sell flow in the globex hours. It will be interesting to see how RTH handles this weakness today.
I’m keeping with the zoomed back profile to give us reference points to trade.
Feeling Trigger Happy
I have lots of charts setting up how I like. After seeing about 10 of them, I settled upon NXTS, which is a random broadcasting company with a stock flying in the stratosphere. It doesn’t have much of a short float to speak of, but man the chart looks ace.
Anyhow, it’s getting faded into the bell.
I’ll be honest, for there’s no value for me in being deceitful on a web log, it felt like an obligatory purchase. I haven’t felt propelled to buy much all day. Perhaps it’s the Memorial Day, perhaps it’s the price zone we’re in. I’m not entirely sure. Maybe today would have been best spent foraging through the woods for mushrooms?
I like ANGI and I’m glad to have more in on that name.
I also bought INVN, same look chart wise, but actually a company I’m into. It’s the combination of interest in a company and an enticing chart that gets me excited.
It’s a modest green day, surprisingly enough, which makes me feel like we’re still in a market of stocks, and not just a perfectly correlated mess. For now I’ll take it.
Chopped and Screwed
I had three signals fire premarket that were victims of a choppy market, and were all stopped. Then when things got moving, the setups were of a nature which I still trade in simulation, and no additional live trades triggered.
Ironic as it may seem, all this early movement was not captured by the Raul.
Aside from the futures, I’ve added to my ANGI long. No other trades yet to report.
Zommed Out and Measuring These Balance Zones
We have two major price zones to use as guideposts if this market continues to put in large ranges. The balance zone above (which coincides with a possible gap fill) from 1657.25 – 1653 is our barrier to the upside, and the lower zone, our major support, spans from 1628 – 1623. It’s best to view these areas on the volume profile charts to see their significance.
In between, we have a low volume slip zone that the overnight session had some fun sliding down and up through. I’m not going to inject much bias into this piece, I’m simply defining interesting reference points, and seeing how we behave today.
I want to see if they can form any semblance of a gap fill. How well that goes (or doesn’t) will be telling.
This is a Lovely Room of Death
Guys, there must be down days. And when we’re in the stratosphere, atop the treacherous K2, guided by our Sherpa—gentleman Ben—and a group of extorting Sherpa come and kick your pack mule down the mountain and demand monies…there’s going to be some casualties. You may need to hunker down low and take some hits. You need to be ready to sweep the leg.
As traders, we’re paid to take daily beatings from the market. It hardens you. HDGE was my worse loss of the year, trimming a cool three percent off my high water mark. Guess what? I crested my portfolio over that mark since then, and now I’m off my new peak by two percent. It happens fast. You have to keep your wits about you.
This may be the start of a peak-to-trough environment. This can last weeks. WEEKS! Oh the humanity. But before we can say that with any kind of confidence we need to see price acceptance below TWO, you heard me right TWO major areas of balance which are way above where this market could pull back and still be considered VERY constructive.
I’ll look at the primary and most actionable balance distribution in the morning.
These Stocks:
I booked some winners that were lingering, some losers that were fingering, and some scratches that were carrying curious implications.
YELP was cut early. It was crowded, that’s how crowded flag breakdowns play out.
RGR was an early sale too. I caught the swing low, it’s been dead fish forever, when that first crazy sell frenzy happened in the spooz this morning I booked it.
I sold JRCC as it butted up against resistance. The Plan says I must sell logical price levels, even if it’s my last piece. I can always buy it back at a better price, at least that’s my mentality.
I booked GS because the devil’s been shorting it, I had 6 percent plus gains, and the daily candle looked nasty. Financials have been a big driver of this move, we could rotate out of them and still see the tape flat/higher.
I sold SCTY late afternoon, after adding to my position early. Net-net I make over 10 percent playing this crack rock. Awesome, except it was good for over 20 percent at one point. A win is a win, I suppose.
I added to my CREE investment. They’re a great company. Remember, this is a multi-quarter hold after booking massive gains in the name trading style Q1. I’m wearing my investor hat on this one. That being said, it also printed a nasty daily candle.
I caught the breakout in IMMR early. It’s this type of aggression that allows me to not experience much emotion when the breakout sputters out like this one did. It has Fly power behind it, so I’m giving it room.
Bottom line: you’re surrounded by algorithms wielding meat cleavers, protect your neck with profit scales and stop losses. My cash pushed way up into the bell, damn near 50 percent. I don’t like lazy cash so I’ll be hunting tonight.
This is a Lovely Room of Death
Guys, there must be down days. And when we’re in the stratosphere, atop the treacherous K2, guided by our Sherpa—gentleman Ben—and a group of extorting Sherpa come and kick your pack mule down the mountain and demand monies…there’s going to be some casualties. You may need to hunker down low and take some hits. You need to be ready to sweep the leg.
As traders, we’re paid to take daily beatings from the market. It hardens you. HDGE was my worse loss of the year, trimming a cool three percent off my high water mark. Guess what? I crested my portfolio over that mark since then, and now I’m off my new peak by two percent. It happens fast. You have to keep your wits about you.
This may be the start of a peak-to-trough environment. This can last weeks. WEEKS! Oh the humanity. But before we can say that with any kind of confidence we need to see price acceptance below TWO, you heard me right TWO major areas of balance which are way above where this market could pull back and still be considered VERY constructive.
I’ll look at the primary and most actionable balance distribution in the morning.
These Stocks:
I booked some winners that were lingering, some losers that were fingering, and some scratches that were carrying curious implications.
YELP was cut early. It was crowded, that’s how crowded flag breakdowns play out.
RGR was an early sale too. I caught the swing low, it’s been dead fish forever, when that first crazy sell frenzy happened in the spooz this morning I booked it.
I sold JRCC as it butted up against resistance. The Plan says I must sell logical price levels, even if it’s my last piece. I can always buy it back at a better price, at least that’s my mentality.
I booked GS because the devil’s been shorting it, I had 6 percent plus gains, and the daily candle looked nasty. Financials have been a big driver of this move, we could rotate out of them and still see the tape flat/higher.
I sold SCTY late afternoon, after adding to my position early. Net-net I make over 10 percent playing this crack rock. Awesome, except it was good for over 20 percent at one point. A win is a win, I suppose.
I added to my CREE investment. They’re a great company. Remember, this is a multi-quarter hold after booking massive gains in the name trading style Q1. I’m wearing my investor hat on this one. That being said, it also printed a nasty daily candle.
I caught the breakout in IMMR early. It’s this type of aggression that allows me to not experience much emotion when the breakout sputters out like this one did. It has Fly power behind it, so I’m giving it room.
Bottom line: you’re surrounded by algorithms wielding meat cleavers, protect your neck with profit scales and stop losses. My cash pushed way up into the bell, damn near 50 percent. I don’t like lazy cash so I’ll be hunting tonight.
That.Was.Awsome
These morning markets, I come to them every morning. Much like The Zen Hunter alluded to about surfers, it’s an obsession—every day hunting waves to ride.
I put up these profiles, looking for where the waves can kick up. Boy did a wave kick up today! I have wins on both the long and the short side, easily my best day ever, earning 10 S&P points. It was fun too. And I stuck to the plan all but once. My one deviation, an attempt to knife catch that free fall, was my only loss on the day. So be it. Stick to the plan or lose money.
Anyhow, that’s why we do all this work, for days like today. They’re calling this the blow off top already. I’ll hold my judgment for now, but I did cut my RGR and YELP longs in case the afternoon gets a little Nightmare on Elm Street.
Let’s look at these stocks and see what’s working.
The Levels Precluding Our Next Break
Yesterday was essentially a completion of Monday’s auction. The charting software I’m currently using won’t allow me to merge these two profiles together, so we’ll have to visualize it for today.
Notice the very fragmented, low quality trade that occurred in the upper 1/3 of Monday’s profile. Now notice how much of Tuesday was spent thoroughly auctioning those prices. Interestingly enough, yesterday was also a neutral day, featuring range extension in both directions, signaling a lack of directional conviction and the possibility of a change in the market conditions.
We’re still above the large balance distribution from last week, the overnight session is balanced within our current profile, and we’re essentially waiting for the market to tip its hand.
Here’s the levels I’ll be monitoring to gauge which way the market is trying to go, and how good of a job it’s doing:
