The Fix Is In

581 views

Stock markets are set up properly, and conditions are prime for misdirection and Fed one’uppery. This weekend your leaders are meeting in Jackson Hole aka God’s country. Upon arrival they will strip down to their underwears and shoot high powered revolvers in the desert with Dan Blizerian.

After consuming kegged beer, they will convene in a cold conference room to take a long nap. Upon waking, we find out if Janet Yellen saw her shadow. If she did, the September rate hike is off the table.

Pair that with some Chinese shenanigans and you have the makings of a macro explosion to the upside.

I know we joke about the China men and their sham-WOW enterprise, but I happen to know they are entirely dominating the bed market. And we Americans do lots of sleeping. We sleep in all these new homes we are building as we enter the roaring 20’s.

These are golden times. Ones our children will scoff at, wishing they were of age and able to participate.

Act accordingly.

Balanced Overnight Session Heading into Friday

335 views

For the first time this week the overnight session is coming in with volume and range below extreme 3rd sigma. The session was balanced overall with a clear pivot at 4307. Price managed to take out Thursday’s high briefly before rolling back down into two way trade. At 8:30am Personal Consumption/Expenditure stats were out and the initial reaction has been slight selling.

Also up for release today we have the final August read of U of M Confidence and at 1pom the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday price opened gap up, out of range from Wednesday. An early short squeeze transitioned into initiative buying before sellers came in and pushed price neutral. At the end of the day buyers ramped back up, fading the second range extension.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4329.50. From there look for buyers to take out overnight high 4340.75 then struggle and ultimately roll over at 4349 before two-way summer Friday trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price south of the overnight 4307 pivot setting up a leg lower to take out overnight low 4281.75. Look for sellers to target Wednesday’s open gap 4211.25.

Hypo 3 a more muted session, contained within yesterday’s range. Two-way chop fest.

Levels:

08282015_NQ_VP

Snapback Rally Leaves Investors Stunned

507 views

These last three days may have been the best market profile mash up ever. You troublemakers don’t stand a chance because you’re stubborn. You don’t learn. Let’s recap, shall we?

Monday – fuck Monday

Tuesday- neutral extreme down, shorts end day with elevated conviction

Wednesday – neutral extreme up, shorts blindsided and now setup to be squeezed

Today, junior – good ole’ fashioned NEUTRAL DAY

I take it back. You learn things. You learn to rely on your perceptions, and the market exists to alter them. Yours is an intelligence handed down from hard lessons. Mine is adherence to statistical probabilities, advanced market structure logic, and objective judgment. Who do you suppose will last 10,000 years, etched into stone by the plebeians?

I have the energy of 225 horses pulsing through my veins. I eat more spinach then 10 men. I could snap a 2×4 across my back like a dead twig. When the market presented a 3rd neutral after 2 of the low-probability neutral extreme variety you were screwed. Perceptions are heavily weighted toward recent events. Probabilities are foundation stones formed over years. Build yours up and build atop them, else be washed away by the hurricanes of time.

Important Programming Note: My twitter handle has changed to @IndexModel. Be sure to tell your neighbors and friends, but not your wives.

YOU’RE GONNA PAY UP

433 views

Conditions this morning were perfect for a Morrie’s wig shop short squeeze. Profile alignments are not always so ideal, but when they are you must be ready to strike with conviction and vigor. Now that it is the afternoon we can see that tape speed has been reasonable. This bodes well for the bull camp. Considering the horror this week has already presented, I would be remiss to turn off the fasten seatbelt. If I did passengers would freely roam the cocked pit, purposely touching their bums to others crotches and such. These conditions are more, “Stay in your seat, but go ahead and fill your Bloody Mary to the brim.”

Most of you are in a pickle—a middle seat of sorts. Take the Tesla haters, they are doomed and can resume living in a cave, staring at shadows on the wall. But really it is anyone who lacked the intestinal fortitude to buy a crashing market.

You are now presented with 3 options and they all stink. You can short the rally, sit elbow deep on your hands, or buy atop 5-sometimes-10 percent moves.

I am in no such predicament. Mine is a bit more complicated, yes, but long only, cash low, and eyeballing certain exit strategies, slowly.

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MY BOOK TODAY.

Ripe Conditions for A Short Squeeze

411 views

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

08272015_NQ_VP

Market Dip Performance Recap

364 views

I flipped bias too soon lads. It was last Friday morning. The summer looked promising and I rode the initial bear move down rigorously. After the short was covered I was full puffed chest, so I immediately flipped long. Then I went longer late Friday afternoon. Then I caught the worst case of the Monday’s ever in the history of bad Monday’s.

As a result, despite the Nasdaq being 400 points off the low, I am still about 75 points under water.

My only Monday morning horse, APP, old APPy, is down like 16% and just a consecutive reminder why I should stick to doing what I do best and outsource ‘stock picking’ to the Space Alien Magician and his robot brain trust.

I will take my loss in APP and I will ride my other longs back to glory. Today was all about sitting. I sat and watched my book churn lower while sucking down caramel frappucino and fish salad, the most addicting vice I’ve ever encountered.

Today ended up a neutral extreme up after we printed the opposite yesterday. That’s classic conditions for a short squeeze—a short squeeze that shall propel the Nasdaqari 75 points higher to bail out your boy.

Now We Have Some Levels To Work With

461 views

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

08262015_NQ_VP

Relying on Uncle Kurt

608 views

Coming into the week I wanted to see the Russell average lead to the upside. It was the most resilient index during last week’s horror show and if it could turn around and play offense after presenting a decent defense then I would get excited. But that is not the case. In fact Uncle Russell is the laggard thus far.

We started the day off high on hope. The situation was desperate last night and fiddly-doo we woke up to the fix. This sort of bipolar behavior is normal in my native Michigan. We have a saying, “Don’t like the weather? Take a nap.”   I was up about 6% this morning but here at the close my book is barely up two.

By afternoon I managed to regain my bearings and step back into Nasdaqs to offer liquidity. It went well. I was able to dial down to the 1.5 point renkos. I imagine the 0.75 point reknos will stay on the shelf for a while.

I am constructive this week. We have alignments that bode well for bulls.   But if the Russell doesn’t go Snake Plissken soon I may duck and cover.

 

I AM WITHOUT HEDGE

323 views

I booked my BIS a few minutes ago, locking in about 18% in gains and also stopped out of my small NUGT runner.  Now I am long only with cash up to about 25%.  More later.

Huge Overnight Buy Wave

344 views

Nasdaq futures are higher on the globex session after printing another extreme session. The range and volume both exceeded 3rd sigma which means statistically it was rare session. Price action was contained inside yesterday’s range, barely. We printed a double top at Monday’s high 4196.25.

The economic calendar picks up steam today. We have the Case Shiller-20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday price opened gap down and quickly pushed lower before triggering a circuit breaker. At this time we had closed the open gap from 10/22/14 at 3950. Next we saw an aggressive push higher which lasted into lunchtime. Buyers stalled just before last Friday’s close and price rolled over. By the close of the session we traded back down into the lower quadrant of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test lower. Look for buyers to defend 4122 and then a push to take out overnight high 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122 opening up a push down to 4139.50.

Hypo 3 Tuesday grind mode sets in, and we churn between 4150 and 4100 with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

08252015_NQ_VP

The Fix Is In

581 views

Stock markets are set up properly, and conditions are prime for misdirection and Fed one’uppery. This weekend your leaders are meeting in Jackson Hole aka God’s country. Upon arrival they will strip down to their underwears and shoot high powered revolvers in the desert with Dan Blizerian.

After consuming kegged beer, they will convene in a cold conference room to take a long nap. Upon waking, we find out if Janet Yellen saw her shadow. If she did, the September rate hike is off the table.

Pair that with some Chinese shenanigans and you have the makings of a macro explosion to the upside.

I know we joke about the China men and their sham-WOW enterprise, but I happen to know they are entirely dominating the bed market. And we Americans do lots of sleeping. We sleep in all these new homes we are building as we enter the roaring 20’s.

These are golden times. Ones our children will scoff at, wishing they were of age and able to participate.

Act accordingly.

Balanced Overnight Session Heading into Friday

335 views

For the first time this week the overnight session is coming in with volume and range below extreme 3rd sigma. The session was balanced overall with a clear pivot at 4307. Price managed to take out Thursday’s high briefly before rolling back down into two way trade. At 8:30am Personal Consumption/Expenditure stats were out and the initial reaction has been slight selling.

Also up for release today we have the final August read of U of M Confidence and at 1pom the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday price opened gap up, out of range from Wednesday. An early short squeeze transitioned into initiative buying before sellers came in and pushed price neutral. At the end of the day buyers ramped back up, fading the second range extension.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4329.50. From there look for buyers to take out overnight high 4340.75 then struggle and ultimately roll over at 4349 before two-way summer Friday trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price south of the overnight 4307 pivot setting up a leg lower to take out overnight low 4281.75. Look for sellers to target Wednesday’s open gap 4211.25.

Hypo 3 a more muted session, contained within yesterday’s range. Two-way chop fest.

Levels:

08282015_NQ_VP

Snapback Rally Leaves Investors Stunned

507 views

These last three days may have been the best market profile mash up ever. You troublemakers don’t stand a chance because you’re stubborn. You don’t learn. Let’s recap, shall we?

Monday – fuck Monday

Tuesday- neutral extreme down, shorts end day with elevated conviction

Wednesday – neutral extreme up, shorts blindsided and now setup to be squeezed

Today, junior – good ole’ fashioned NEUTRAL DAY

I take it back. You learn things. You learn to rely on your perceptions, and the market exists to alter them. Yours is an intelligence handed down from hard lessons. Mine is adherence to statistical probabilities, advanced market structure logic, and objective judgment. Who do you suppose will last 10,000 years, etched into stone by the plebeians?

I have the energy of 225 horses pulsing through my veins. I eat more spinach then 10 men. I could snap a 2×4 across my back like a dead twig. When the market presented a 3rd neutral after 2 of the low-probability neutral extreme variety you were screwed. Perceptions are heavily weighted toward recent events. Probabilities are foundation stones formed over years. Build yours up and build atop them, else be washed away by the hurricanes of time.

Important Programming Note: My twitter handle has changed to @IndexModel. Be sure to tell your neighbors and friends, but not your wives.

YOU’RE GONNA PAY UP

433 views

Conditions this morning were perfect for a Morrie’s wig shop short squeeze. Profile alignments are not always so ideal, but when they are you must be ready to strike with conviction and vigor. Now that it is the afternoon we can see that tape speed has been reasonable. This bodes well for the bull camp. Considering the horror this week has already presented, I would be remiss to turn off the fasten seatbelt. If I did passengers would freely roam the cocked pit, purposely touching their bums to others crotches and such. These conditions are more, “Stay in your seat, but go ahead and fill your Bloody Mary to the brim.”

Most of you are in a pickle—a middle seat of sorts. Take the Tesla haters, they are doomed and can resume living in a cave, staring at shadows on the wall. But really it is anyone who lacked the intestinal fortitude to buy a crashing market.

You are now presented with 3 options and they all stink. You can short the rally, sit elbow deep on your hands, or buy atop 5-sometimes-10 percent moves.

I am in no such predicament. Mine is a bit more complicated, yes, but long only, cash low, and eyeballing certain exit strategies, slowly.

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MY BOOK TODAY.

Ripe Conditions for A Short Squeeze

411 views

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

08272015_NQ_VP

Market Dip Performance Recap

364 views

I flipped bias too soon lads. It was last Friday morning. The summer looked promising and I rode the initial bear move down rigorously. After the short was covered I was full puffed chest, so I immediately flipped long. Then I went longer late Friday afternoon. Then I caught the worst case of the Monday’s ever in the history of bad Monday’s.

As a result, despite the Nasdaq being 400 points off the low, I am still about 75 points under water.

My only Monday morning horse, APP, old APPy, is down like 16% and just a consecutive reminder why I should stick to doing what I do best and outsource ‘stock picking’ to the Space Alien Magician and his robot brain trust.

I will take my loss in APP and I will ride my other longs back to glory. Today was all about sitting. I sat and watched my book churn lower while sucking down caramel frappucino and fish salad, the most addicting vice I’ve ever encountered.

Today ended up a neutral extreme up after we printed the opposite yesterday. That’s classic conditions for a short squeeze—a short squeeze that shall propel the Nasdaqari 75 points higher to bail out your boy.

Now We Have Some Levels To Work With

461 views

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

08262015_NQ_VP

Relying on Uncle Kurt

608 views

Coming into the week I wanted to see the Russell average lead to the upside. It was the most resilient index during last week’s horror show and if it could turn around and play offense after presenting a decent defense then I would get excited. But that is not the case. In fact Uncle Russell is the laggard thus far.

We started the day off high on hope. The situation was desperate last night and fiddly-doo we woke up to the fix. This sort of bipolar behavior is normal in my native Michigan. We have a saying, “Don’t like the weather? Take a nap.”   I was up about 6% this morning but here at the close my book is barely up two.

By afternoon I managed to regain my bearings and step back into Nasdaqs to offer liquidity. It went well. I was able to dial down to the 1.5 point renkos. I imagine the 0.75 point reknos will stay on the shelf for a while.

I am constructive this week. We have alignments that bode well for bulls.   But if the Russell doesn’t go Snake Plissken soon I may duck and cover.

 

I AM WITHOUT HEDGE

323 views

I booked my BIS a few minutes ago, locking in about 18% in gains and also stopped out of my small NUGT runner.  Now I am long only with cash up to about 25%.  More later.

Huge Overnight Buy Wave

344 views

Nasdaq futures are higher on the globex session after printing another extreme session. The range and volume both exceeded 3rd sigma which means statistically it was rare session. Price action was contained inside yesterday’s range, barely. We printed a double top at Monday’s high 4196.25.

The economic calendar picks up steam today. We have the Case Shiller-20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday price opened gap down and quickly pushed lower before triggering a circuit breaker. At this time we had closed the open gap from 10/22/14 at 3950. Next we saw an aggressive push higher which lasted into lunchtime. Buyers stalled just before last Friday’s close and price rolled over. By the close of the session we traded back down into the lower quadrant of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test lower. Look for buyers to defend 4122 and then a push to take out overnight high 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122 opening up a push down to 4139.50.

Hypo 3 Tuesday grind mode sets in, and we churn between 4150 and 4100 with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

08252015_NQ_VP