I’m Literally Dead

240 views

After averaging into Apple calls this afternoon I walked away from the terminal to clear my head. I dressed in rugged clothes and skateboarded to the nearest gas station where I proceeded to panhandle for change and cigarettes.

People are truly kind. They looked past my designer sunglasses and occasional iPhone use and reached into their pockets. You may be saying, “Here it is. Raul’s gone off the reserve, boy ain’t right.” Your judgment couldn’t be further from the mark.

This is an old stoic exercise, one that subjects its participant to perceived reality. Is this truly the fate I so greatly fear? To be a broke hipster in the United States?

If I had more time (I’m 10,000x busier than you) I would spend the whole week cavorting about town—bagging cans, sleeping under the bridge, and hustling deals with the local business owners. If a market liquidation makes you uncomfortable, then go ask strangers for money and odd jobs.

My book is down about 2.3% today despite being cash heavy and positioned into old man NRG and DOC. I made money trading the futures, nearly selling top tick this morning but booking way-way-waaay-too-soon.

Tonight I’ll lift heavy objects for recreation, watch my big ass teevee, then sleep in my fancy adjustable bed. Tomorrow I will slay each and every hater with swift and decisive swings of my kukri.

The Most Irrelevant Sell Off This Year

300 views

walterSobchak

Our brothers in arms died face down in the muck so that you and I can enjoy this stocked market.  To think Greece, a strumpet of a country, will do this to the republic, on this week, this god blessed-week of Independence from the malignant recourse imposed by British Royals is absurd. I spit on the idea.

I cannot change the fool who directs their decisions with emotion. I can only will myself into acceptance of all events that henceforth transpire and make steadfast the execution of my objective plans—written well outside of wartime. As such, I have added to my Apple risk, risk I took with the inherent plan of adding into weakness AT INCEPTION.

This is a patriotic trade, a degenerate gamble that investors will bless Apple with more market cap for being way ahead of the curve on the homo front.  I expect bears will be Tim Cook’d in no time.

This country was built by the gambler, but if the market has truly set out on a course to subjugate the speculative bull, then my other purchase from today, shares of NRG, should weather the storm fine.  Son of a motherless goat I’m all cashed up too, fully prepared to buy margin liquidations so bring it.

 

Starting The Week Pro Gap Down

210 views

Nasdaq futures are down as we head into the holiday shortened week after news from Greece began to deteriorate over the weekend. Futures opened and immediately pushed gap down to 4400 before a well-balanced, 2-way trade ensued. Volume is abnormal but not breaching the extreme 2nd sigma threshold. The range on trade post-gap down is elevated, but including the range of the gap we have extreme 2nd sigma range.

I envision this Greek news slowly fizzling out this week, but as for today, it’s likely to be of elevated importance. With headline risk high, we may see less impact to today’s only economic event—Pending Home Sales at 10am. Keep in mind, we have NFP data out on Thursday instead of Friday due to Independence Day (USA#1).

Last week we started with a big gap up and essentially spent the rest of the week fading it lower. On Friday liquidation accelerated through an air pocket present on the profile before finding responsive buyers to end the week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and test higher. Look for sellers to defend 4446 and two way trade to ensue, north of the overnight low 4400.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4446.75 and continue higher to 4467. If they can breach this levels as well, look for a throwback to the scene of the crime, the open gap up at 4481.75. Note, this is pro gap territory—thus attempting to fade it is an effort requiring “professional” resources. The half gap scenario above is more likely.

Hypo 3 we take out overnight low 4400 and test below prior swing low 4386.50. Look for responsive buyers otherwise liquidation grip the market and sellers push to target 4353.50.

Levels:06292015_NQ_VPMP

About To Be Real Patriotic This Week

360 views

At some point you have to stomp your boot into the mud and declare your allegiance. In this country, USA#1, we celebrate the day we effectively told Great Britain to, “fuck off” and leave us alone. Sure, these days America owes money all over the world, including to known pornographers, but that’s because we borrowed (read: took) that money.

We’re like a gigantic Greece except that we beat back the Germans in WWII—and we’d do it again.

This Independence Day promises to be the gayest one on record. Citizens are preparing to guzzle beer and barbecued meat, staples of southern living, whist burning confederate flags on their front lawns. They will be replaced by rainbow prints and men wearing shorts cut above the knee.

The Weekly Strategy Session is published inside Exodus. In it, I cover my favorite patriotic picks for the short week, as well as some companies that will begin their decent into extinction, much like the dying ethos of southern oppression.

This is a brave new world lads. Has USA jumped the shark and gone full Rome? Or will we make it a little bit further than the last great republic? The universe is a series of attempts at going a little bit further than the last great—just like beating a video game. I am firmly in the camp that USA is Super Mario trumped up on a star, raccoon suit, and belly full of mushrooms. Let’s do this!

This Is Like Flight School for Traders

389 views


mavschool

Each week I put together a report called the Strategy Session.  For a while it was a standalone product.  Now, it’s included with your Exodus membership.  In it, I recap the prior week’s action and build context and actionable trade setups for the following week.

Each week there is a section where we look very closely at one of the tools inside Exodus.  Since the gates are open to the public this weekend here’s a sneak peek at this week’s educational piece.  Hot from the presses at Exodus Academy, enjoy:

In Exodus, we compartmentalize stocks into several sub-groups.  Take Shake Shack (ticker: SHAK) for example.  Shake Shack is a stock, more specifically a service sector stock, more specifically a restaurant.

The idea to pigeonhole stocks into sectors and industries has its roots in methods established around 300 B.C…seriously.  Aristotle was a philosopher and a scientist.  The last great Greek philosopher, he was a meticulous organizer who wanted to clarify our concepts, especially of nature.  His explanations are based on sensory observation and are a foundation of logic.  Instead of a lecture on Aristotle, here’s an application of his work using my oldest pet:

A few years ago I adopted a nearly-feral dachshund.  Her skittish behavior and incredible speed earned her the name Momo—she behaves like a momentum stock!

Momo is a living creature, more specifically an animal, more specifically a vertebrate, more specifically a mammal, more specifically a dog, more specifically a dachshund, more specifically a female dachshund.

This is a very Aristotelian (read: logical) way of describing my doggy.

We built Exodus to make ourselves better investors and traders.  In the hyper-competitive field of public investing, it is vital to comport yourself to established facts.  Our belief is that anyone can make good decisions if presented with the right information.  Therefore the software confronts you with well organized statistics.  Armed with probabilities and logic, members are empowered to make objective decisions.  Every stock in the system belongs to a sector and industry, here’s SHAK:


SHAK_sector_industry

On the Dashboard page, we display the market caps of each sector.  This is accomplished by coagulating the markets caps of all 4,740 stocks into their respective sector.  The result is the simple-to-understand Sector Composite Market Cap chart, see below:

SectorCompMarCap

If we go to the Industry page, we can then see the intraday performance of these sectors.  This is like peeling back the curtain and looking under the surface of index prices—indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (more compartments!).

Check out Friday’s readings.  They were telling a story.  Tech was weakest sector on the session which put some context behind the tech-heavy Nasdaq being down more than the other indices.  It also called the early afternoon weakness into question when we saw the selling wasn’t broad-based, but instead isolated to a few sectors.  See below:

SectorIntradayPerf

Not bad right?  Free trials end Sunday, if you haven’t signed up yet email me twosmuth@gmail.com now.  At the stroke of midnight Sunday any straggler found within our kingdom with the exiled via our human catapult. 

GET TO THE CHOPPA

299 views

After the market closes I will be joining the venerable Option Addict inside After Hours with Option Addict to discuss Exodus. The Fly will be there too, inside the comment section.

If for whatever reason you opt to cut out of the office early to guzzle beer cans and shoot dice, then you can just take a demo of the software. Email me twosmuth@gmail.com. This will be short lived, this weekend only, but nevertheless a benevolent act from your team at iBankCoin.

Work The Slip Zone

230 views

After riding the slip zone down, well, I had to adhere to what my robots were suggesting, so I bought some Apple risk rights.  Round and round we go, mates!

Waxing on The Haters

535 views

I had the distinguished pleasure of roasting a Tesla hater in person last night. This trollop of a human had been convinced he was special when he inherited his family’s festering tool and die shop.

Thus today’s action, a leader leading, amongst a flubby pile of false entitlement losers, is quite pleasing to my palate. But as sweet as the instant gratification of today is, it is merely a cherry on a sundae of a day.

We have some intriguing developments inside the confines of Exodus. If I had any say in the matter, I would close the gates and raise the draw bridge to secure said information. I want what’s going on right now all to myself, but alas, our benevolent leader has lined the town square with garland and welcomed the public in.

Don’t email me twosmuth@gmail.com unless you’re fully prepared to slay dragons and embrace sorcery. If you want the laws of nature to bend at your feet, then hurry up and get inside before I order the archers to shoot.

Super Balance

248 views

Markets pushed higher early this morning, and as we head into cash open price is entrenched in balance. Range is abnormally elevated on the overnight session and volume is close to abnormal too. The main feature of the overnight session is a 25 point rotation higher that hit right around 4am.

The Greek drama continues and at 7am Eurogroup Finance Ministers were set to meet.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data, as well as Personal Income/Spending data were out and the initial reaction to the news is some slight selling. Also on the docket today is Market Composit PMI at 9:45am and Nat Gas Storage data at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme day, and quite an interesting one. Price went up and took out the prior swing high and order flow dried up. We spent the rest of the session working lower and went out near the session low.

This action followed what has been a frustrating week for bears. We started Monday with a big gap up and sellers have struggled to fade it. Instead we are churning and accepting these higher prices.

The result is a well-defined value area that we can work with. It spans from 4545 – 4511. The more time we spend inside this balance, the more likely it is to resolve higher and in congruence with the higher time frame trend.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push on the open to target 4541. From there I will look for sellers to defend the high end of value and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 is sellers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4514.50, setting up a test of VAL 4511. Look for buyers and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap early, selling pressure persists, and we push to test the century mark 4500. Look for a liquidation if we pierce the air pocket below 4498.50.

Hypo 4 strong buyers, push up through 4545 and continue on to test above yesterday HOD 4555.25 to target measured moves at 4557 and 4565.75.

Levels:

06252015_NQ_VPMP

I’m Literally Dead

240 views

After averaging into Apple calls this afternoon I walked away from the terminal to clear my head. I dressed in rugged clothes and skateboarded to the nearest gas station where I proceeded to panhandle for change and cigarettes.

People are truly kind. They looked past my designer sunglasses and occasional iPhone use and reached into their pockets. You may be saying, “Here it is. Raul’s gone off the reserve, boy ain’t right.” Your judgment couldn’t be further from the mark.

This is an old stoic exercise, one that subjects its participant to perceived reality. Is this truly the fate I so greatly fear? To be a broke hipster in the United States?

If I had more time (I’m 10,000x busier than you) I would spend the whole week cavorting about town—bagging cans, sleeping under the bridge, and hustling deals with the local business owners. If a market liquidation makes you uncomfortable, then go ask strangers for money and odd jobs.

My book is down about 2.3% today despite being cash heavy and positioned into old man NRG and DOC. I made money trading the futures, nearly selling top tick this morning but booking way-way-waaay-too-soon.

Tonight I’ll lift heavy objects for recreation, watch my big ass teevee, then sleep in my fancy adjustable bed. Tomorrow I will slay each and every hater with swift and decisive swings of my kukri.

The Most Irrelevant Sell Off This Year

300 views

walterSobchak

Our brothers in arms died face down in the muck so that you and I can enjoy this stocked market.  To think Greece, a strumpet of a country, will do this to the republic, on this week, this god blessed-week of Independence from the malignant recourse imposed by British Royals is absurd. I spit on the idea.

I cannot change the fool who directs their decisions with emotion. I can only will myself into acceptance of all events that henceforth transpire and make steadfast the execution of my objective plans—written well outside of wartime. As such, I have added to my Apple risk, risk I took with the inherent plan of adding into weakness AT INCEPTION.

This is a patriotic trade, a degenerate gamble that investors will bless Apple with more market cap for being way ahead of the curve on the homo front.  I expect bears will be Tim Cook’d in no time.

This country was built by the gambler, but if the market has truly set out on a course to subjugate the speculative bull, then my other purchase from today, shares of NRG, should weather the storm fine.  Son of a motherless goat I’m all cashed up too, fully prepared to buy margin liquidations so bring it.

 

Starting The Week Pro Gap Down

210 views

Nasdaq futures are down as we head into the holiday shortened week after news from Greece began to deteriorate over the weekend. Futures opened and immediately pushed gap down to 4400 before a well-balanced, 2-way trade ensued. Volume is abnormal but not breaching the extreme 2nd sigma threshold. The range on trade post-gap down is elevated, but including the range of the gap we have extreme 2nd sigma range.

I envision this Greek news slowly fizzling out this week, but as for today, it’s likely to be of elevated importance. With headline risk high, we may see less impact to today’s only economic event—Pending Home Sales at 10am. Keep in mind, we have NFP data out on Thursday instead of Friday due to Independence Day (USA#1).

Last week we started with a big gap up and essentially spent the rest of the week fading it lower. On Friday liquidation accelerated through an air pocket present on the profile before finding responsive buyers to end the week.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and test higher. Look for sellers to defend 4446 and two way trade to ensue, north of the overnight low 4400.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4446.75 and continue higher to 4467. If they can breach this levels as well, look for a throwback to the scene of the crime, the open gap up at 4481.75. Note, this is pro gap territory—thus attempting to fade it is an effort requiring “professional” resources. The half gap scenario above is more likely.

Hypo 3 we take out overnight low 4400 and test below prior swing low 4386.50. Look for responsive buyers otherwise liquidation grip the market and sellers push to target 4353.50.

Levels:06292015_NQ_VPMP

About To Be Real Patriotic This Week

360 views

At some point you have to stomp your boot into the mud and declare your allegiance. In this country, USA#1, we celebrate the day we effectively told Great Britain to, “fuck off” and leave us alone. Sure, these days America owes money all over the world, including to known pornographers, but that’s because we borrowed (read: took) that money.

We’re like a gigantic Greece except that we beat back the Germans in WWII—and we’d do it again.

This Independence Day promises to be the gayest one on record. Citizens are preparing to guzzle beer and barbecued meat, staples of southern living, whist burning confederate flags on their front lawns. They will be replaced by rainbow prints and men wearing shorts cut above the knee.

The Weekly Strategy Session is published inside Exodus. In it, I cover my favorite patriotic picks for the short week, as well as some companies that will begin their decent into extinction, much like the dying ethos of southern oppression.

This is a brave new world lads. Has USA jumped the shark and gone full Rome? Or will we make it a little bit further than the last great republic? The universe is a series of attempts at going a little bit further than the last great—just like beating a video game. I am firmly in the camp that USA is Super Mario trumped up on a star, raccoon suit, and belly full of mushrooms. Let’s do this!

This Is Like Flight School for Traders

389 views


mavschool

Each week I put together a report called the Strategy Session.  For a while it was a standalone product.  Now, it’s included with your Exodus membership.  In it, I recap the prior week’s action and build context and actionable trade setups for the following week.

Each week there is a section where we look very closely at one of the tools inside Exodus.  Since the gates are open to the public this weekend here’s a sneak peek at this week’s educational piece.  Hot from the presses at Exodus Academy, enjoy:

In Exodus, we compartmentalize stocks into several sub-groups.  Take Shake Shack (ticker: SHAK) for example.  Shake Shack is a stock, more specifically a service sector stock, more specifically a restaurant.

The idea to pigeonhole stocks into sectors and industries has its roots in methods established around 300 B.C…seriously.  Aristotle was a philosopher and a scientist.  The last great Greek philosopher, he was a meticulous organizer who wanted to clarify our concepts, especially of nature.  His explanations are based on sensory observation and are a foundation of logic.  Instead of a lecture on Aristotle, here’s an application of his work using my oldest pet:

A few years ago I adopted a nearly-feral dachshund.  Her skittish behavior and incredible speed earned her the name Momo—she behaves like a momentum stock!

Momo is a living creature, more specifically an animal, more specifically a vertebrate, more specifically a mammal, more specifically a dog, more specifically a dachshund, more specifically a female dachshund.

This is a very Aristotelian (read: logical) way of describing my doggy.

We built Exodus to make ourselves better investors and traders.  In the hyper-competitive field of public investing, it is vital to comport yourself to established facts.  Our belief is that anyone can make good decisions if presented with the right information.  Therefore the software confronts you with well organized statistics.  Armed with probabilities and logic, members are empowered to make objective decisions.  Every stock in the system belongs to a sector and industry, here’s SHAK:


SHAK_sector_industry

On the Dashboard page, we display the market caps of each sector.  This is accomplished by coagulating the markets caps of all 4,740 stocks into their respective sector.  The result is the simple-to-understand Sector Composite Market Cap chart, see below:

SectorCompMarCap

If we go to the Industry page, we can then see the intraday performance of these sectors.  This is like peeling back the curtain and looking under the surface of index prices—indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and Dow Jones Industrial Average (more compartments!).

Check out Friday’s readings.  They were telling a story.  Tech was weakest sector on the session which put some context behind the tech-heavy Nasdaq being down more than the other indices.  It also called the early afternoon weakness into question when we saw the selling wasn’t broad-based, but instead isolated to a few sectors.  See below:

SectorIntradayPerf

Not bad right?  Free trials end Sunday, if you haven’t signed up yet email me twosmuth@gmail.com now.  At the stroke of midnight Sunday any straggler found within our kingdom with the exiled via our human catapult. 

GET TO THE CHOPPA

299 views

After the market closes I will be joining the venerable Option Addict inside After Hours with Option Addict to discuss Exodus. The Fly will be there too, inside the comment section.

If for whatever reason you opt to cut out of the office early to guzzle beer cans and shoot dice, then you can just take a demo of the software. Email me twosmuth@gmail.com. This will be short lived, this weekend only, but nevertheless a benevolent act from your team at iBankCoin.

Work The Slip Zone

230 views

After riding the slip zone down, well, I had to adhere to what my robots were suggesting, so I bought some Apple risk rights.  Round and round we go, mates!

Waxing on The Haters

535 views

I had the distinguished pleasure of roasting a Tesla hater in person last night. This trollop of a human had been convinced he was special when he inherited his family’s festering tool and die shop.

Thus today’s action, a leader leading, amongst a flubby pile of false entitlement losers, is quite pleasing to my palate. But as sweet as the instant gratification of today is, it is merely a cherry on a sundae of a day.

We have some intriguing developments inside the confines of Exodus. If I had any say in the matter, I would close the gates and raise the draw bridge to secure said information. I want what’s going on right now all to myself, but alas, our benevolent leader has lined the town square with garland and welcomed the public in.

Don’t email me twosmuth@gmail.com unless you’re fully prepared to slay dragons and embrace sorcery. If you want the laws of nature to bend at your feet, then hurry up and get inside before I order the archers to shoot.

Super Balance

248 views

Markets pushed higher early this morning, and as we head into cash open price is entrenched in balance. Range is abnormally elevated on the overnight session and volume is close to abnormal too. The main feature of the overnight session is a 25 point rotation higher that hit right around 4am.

The Greek drama continues and at 7am Eurogroup Finance Ministers were set to meet.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data, as well as Personal Income/Spending data were out and the initial reaction to the news is some slight selling. Also on the docket today is Market Composit PMI at 9:45am and Nat Gas Storage data at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme day, and quite an interesting one. Price went up and took out the prior swing high and order flow dried up. We spent the rest of the session working lower and went out near the session low.

This action followed what has been a frustrating week for bears. We started Monday with a big gap up and sellers have struggled to fade it. Instead we are churning and accepting these higher prices.

The result is a well-defined value area that we can work with. It spans from 4545 – 4511. The more time we spend inside this balance, the more likely it is to resolve higher and in congruence with the higher time frame trend.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push on the open to target 4541. From there I will look for sellers to defend the high end of value and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 is sellers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4514.50, setting up a test of VAL 4511. Look for buyers and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap early, selling pressure persists, and we push to test the century mark 4500. Look for a liquidation if we pierce the air pocket below 4498.50.

Hypo 4 strong buyers, push up through 4545 and continue on to test above yesterday HOD 4555.25 to target measured moves at 4557 and 4565.75.

Levels:

06252015_NQ_VPMP