Mama Likely

I like the way we opened for trade this morning in the Nasdaq, as of this writing (past results are not indicative of future returns, etc.) buyers have rejected away from yesterday’s range and held prices up near the highs.  I shuffled my book about a bit, selling my TSLA weeklies, and buying some AMZN weeklies, some SINA next weeklies, and I small earning’s gambol in X.

The current HOD in /NQ_F is so poor it has grocery bags for shoes.

LEVERAGE-D and preparing some meat trays for tonight’s earnings announcements.

The Joy of Price Discovery

The discovery process is ongoing in the Nasdaq futures, where contracts are currently trading a bit higher verse the close of Monday trade.  The lack of consensus can be seen on the 24 hour market profile which is not coming into balance.  The imbalance can also be seen on the intermediate term volume composite, where our current action resembles the toothy peaks and valleys of a ridged mountain range.  As we approach the open of US cash trade there is only the Case-Shiller Home Price index to anticipate.  After the open at 10am is the Consumer Confidence report.  Twitter is set to report earnings after the bell.

With three trading days left in the month of July, let us take a look at the monthly volume profile print:

07292014_Monthly_NQ

We can see the longer term trend being controlled by buyers who, after slugging it out for the first five months of the year, have pressed prices higher.  Bringing our attention in closer, we observe the intermediate term trend.  This is where the real battle has been taking place for the past 5-6 days.  The local, or day trader/dealer, is not the only participant in our current conditions.  Instead we are seeing day-timeframe levels ignored and instead the intermediate term levels being honored.  This behavior can shift any moment, but for now the price levels on the intermediate term timeframe are the most relevant, see below:

07292014_IntTerm_NQ

Finally, we can observe the following market profile levels, and how we interact with them, to determine if we re-enter a local-to-local chop-like environment.  If we see these short term levels as well as today’s developing value area honored and disputed, then we can assume longer timeframe participants have backed off until they again are motivated into action.  See below:

07292014_marketprofile_NQ

Man Down

Midway through the morning session I was taken out of the action when one of my PCs went haywire.  Funny how a touch screen monitor reacts to a calculator being thrown at it, but I digress.  There is something very exciting about the market of stocks right now, something almost intoxicating.  The intermediate term participants are jockeying for position and creating a great degree of uncertainty.  From uncertainty opportunity is born.  The obstacle is aversion and keeping yourself away from its deep dark corridors.

I am down two monitors on the day, from four, as a result my screen real estate has become twice as valuable and I have to simplify my operations.  This is an excellent opportunity to carefully clear some clutter off my screens.

We are approaching a key turning point in the market place—earnings season is time to gird your loins.  If your price action swing trade never bared fruit, you must dig up said tree and bury it.  If you have a long term commitment to a stock, you must prepare for failure and ineptitude which is completely out of your company’s control.  It is the whimsical nature of the market participants who will ultimately determine your short-term fate.  Do not fight it, simply embrace the uncertainty and make sure you are in bed with your vision.

I have long term commitments to four companies—I am a bit of a polygamist.  LO executed the most impressive land grab I have ever seen with regard to eCigarettes.  Their Blu™ device swarmed party stores and gas stations like the early German Blitzkriegs of World War II.  I put my long term faith in a company that executes and disrupts with that much speed and tenacity.  Disruption is always at the core of my long term investments, thus my other three investments should come as no surprise.

Tesla Motors is coming up the flank, and will devastate old TBTF auto industries and their gasoline infrastructure.  Their counter offensives have been impractical and unaccepted by the people who matter.  Elon Musk is a visionary and one of the greatest leaders of our generation.

Go Pro is the camera on everyone’s wish list.  It is durable, simple, and high definition.

Twitter is the ultimate disruptor of the most powerful force on our plant, media.  The pen has conquered and build nations for 100s of years.  He who controls the media controls the minds of the masses.  Twitter is a way of turning the control over to the user, the consumer.  It is a scary thought, but a generational disruption nonetheless.  Every day someone debates making a stupid, fuck you money, offer for this company.  What is it truly worth?  What is the collective, real time conscience of the world worth?

All of my other positions are tactical and short term.  WUBA is bringing the doom hammer down on China doubters.  Next shorts to die are VNET.  BIDU doubters are dead.  The beatings are scheduled to continue on a daily basis as we approach the coming of the Great One, ALI-BA-BA!!!!!! (extra Indiana Jones caveman)

I will have 4 screens in a few weeks, but until then I may reduce down to my core holdings.  TBD.

Doomsday approaches for WUBA shorts

Intermediate Term Players Making a Mess of The Field

Nasdaq futures are up a few points on the globex session after a quiet morning on the economic front.  Whether or not Hari Raya Puasa sees lower volume than a normal session is something to consider today.  We also have PMI Service flash at 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index at 10, and Dallas Fed at 10:30.

The overnight session saw a few large rotations in both directions, but the brunt of the action was seen pushing higher.  The index put in a fairly durable low around 7pm before exploring higher into the early morning.  We are now lingering up near the high of the session as the USA comes online.   The net globex profile has a slight skew which could resolve itself in a few ways, see below:

07282014_ONmarketprofile_NQ

We started to break intermediate term balance last week and explore higher.  However it seems the market is trying to not allow this, and as a result the intermediate term has become a bit of a mess.  This is actually a good thing, it affirms the idea of an out of balance marketplace and provides some very prominent low volume nodes as signposts as we trade.  However, if the intermediate term participants continue their activity this week, then we might see an uptick in volatility.  I have highlighted the key nodes below:

07282014_IntTerm_NQ

On the below market profile chart, I present the levels I will be watching as we start the week:

07282014_marketprofile_NQ

Watching The Intermediate Term Players

Nasdaq futures are down as we head into Friday trade, with the bulk of the selling taking place just after market close yesterday on the heels of earnings from AMZN, BIDU, and SBUX.  Since then we had some decent economic data from the UK which brought in a bit more selling, a minor extension, and at 8:30am we saw USA Durable Goods Orders release slightly better than consensus.  The latest data received a somewhat muted response.

The intermediate term timeframe participants have been very active this week.  Their behavior shows up in the day types we have been seeing—normal days and neutral days.  The normal days suggest they like to make their move early and then they do little else for the rest of the day.  The neutral day on Monday was the only session we saw activity throughout the entire session.  With that in mind, and the weekend edging closer, it makes sense to not rush nor force many trades today because the order flow may simply dry up—leaving you to be pushed around by big algos who eat ticks.  Also, since the intermediate term is active, it makes sense to observe the intermediate term timeframe closely.  We have some very prominent low volume nodes in the wake of our most recent advance, and any one of these might be a candidate for testing today.  Also note the large acceptance forming up near the highs.  Will this volume overhang become supply left behind or will we use it as a base for another leg?  See below:

07252014_IntTerm_NQ

Had I been trading yesterday, then I would have been looking for an afternoon short.  The profile yesterday shows an excess high or selling wick.  Since the day never range extended, one might have hypothesized some selling would come in toward the end of the day.  However, balance held and we printed value inside of Wednesday’s value.  We are set to gap well below Wednesday/Thursday value, and it will be interesting to see if we poke back up into the area or not.  I have highlighted these prices, as well as other prices I will be observing on the following market profile chart:
07252014_marketprofile_NQ

Packed Tight with Potential Energy

In light of my frustrated trading yesterday, I had little desire to pursue opportunity in the Nasdaq futures today. Instead I reviewed tape and read a book while keeping one eye on the marketplace.  How I felt yesterday was very subjective, with a distorted perception of reality.  When trading, it is up to us to change our attitude and act with purpose.  You can sit around waiting for someone to help you or you can take action today.

We printed another normal day in the NQ, the second this week.  A normal day is generally created by a swift entry of the other timeframe participant which has the effect of establishing a wide initial balance.  The rest of the day the other timeframe buyer and seller auction price back-and-forth and two way balanced trade takes place.  These are anti-momentum days intraday.  I am actually quite pleased to observe today’s normal day from the sidelines I tend to chop myself up in these conditions.  The key today was in the hypotheses.  As a matter of fact, the key to every day is the hypotheses.  Trades taken without a plan, no matter how nice the conditions look, back door screw me way too often.  Less is more intraday.  This is simple, only trade while applying a hypothesis after a trading picture emerges.  Simple, but not easy.

The big news on the session came from our favorite real estate apps, Z and TRLA.  Zillow is pursuing a bid to acquire Truila for a very cool two billion.  This calls into question the valuation of all internet real estate, because face it, internet real estate is very real.  You and I and Aunt Yellen have no idea how to truly value of these properties.  Smarter folks then us will use the open market to determine this, naturally.

I took down August calls in WUBA early and then some PCLN yolo action around lunchtime.  Other than that, I continue to sit here, in no particular hurry, watching my book of potent rockets sit at ground zero.

Tomorrow I will form a set of very high quality hypotheses after taking care to present you with the finest Nasdaq analysis money can buy (it’s free), and conditions willing I will take a trade or two.  No more guns blazing, especially on Fridays.

Intermediate Term Control

We have been observing the intermediate term closely this week after seeing a mini balance form within a larger balance thus forming the compression and potential for price discovery.  This all took place near the top end of the larger balance making the opportunity for a discovery higher distinct.  Yesterday we pressed right to the edge of the stratosphere (around 3974.25 according to balance analysis) and overnight more buying came in which is pushing us to new swing highs.  The timing of the buy flow lines up with the Euro Zone releasing their PMI data at 4am however we are seeing action based upon earnings as well as speculative heat in Chinese burritos and biotech.

I have noted very little on the intermediate term chart.  We are climbing a wonderful wall of worry one gap at a time.  The overnight gaps are a bit unsettling to say the least, however the foundation formed prior to this advance is as well-structured as we have seen since April.  See below:

07262014_Monthly_NQ

You can see the buyer control on the intermediate term as a series of higher highs and lows:

07242014_IntTerm_NQ

The question today is will we sustain a third gap higher, or will we discover a responsive seller strong enough to begin the process of backing and filling?  I have highlighted the key price levels I will be observing on the following market profile chart:

07242014_marketprofile_NQ

I Am Raul’s Chocolate Cake

Insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.

-Albert Einstein

In case you think this is yesterday’s performance chart, think again!!!!  Your boy is losing it.  I will save you all the torturous introspective, just know the lunatic escaped from the asylum today and traded like it was groundhog day for fuckssake.

Highlights—a consolidation formed, consolidations “aren’t my thing”, I took 49304u45 trades inside of it, breaking all kinds of rules, and stopped myself just before hitting the old daily loss limit.  Then I sat in the woods and observed the squirrels and willfully allowed the mosquitoes to consume my flesh while I watched FB earnings.

Now I am off to scour craigslist for a physiatrist.

BUT FIRST, A PERF CHART FOR YOU COOL DOODS:

07232014_performancereport

Let’s see if my homie Marc over at FB is going to save my week tomorrow.  I am long of TWTR calls, next week expiry of course, because momo trading is PLUM SLOW.  TSLA calls too, GRPN calls ALSO.  Cool.

Good night

Another Gap to Swing High

The globex markets are the setting for bullish progress this week and early this morning we saw another wave of buying roll through the market.  As we enter the thick of earnings for major tech companies, the index teeters at annual highs.

The intermediate term is showing signs of coming out of balance.  Below yesterday we have a volume pocket separating us from the balance formation.  However, we could still explore a bit higher to settle out the imbalance existing from bottom tail-to-mid verses top tail-to mid.  I have highlighted this level as well as the pocket and key LVNs below:

07232014_IntTerm_NQ

Yesterday we printed a very clean “normal” day.  This type of day is characterized as having no range extension from initial balance and suggests an aggressive early entry by the buyers was following by balanced, two-way trade.  The placement at new swing highs suggests acceptance of these higher prices.  The late-afternoon selling was widely expected to continue but instead the dip was bought.  The one unique quirk that had so many day traders expecting a new LOD yesterday was the triple-bottom at initial balance low paired with the big gap.  These traders were stopped out but will be hunting a break of 3942.25 on any weakness.  I have highlighted this level and a few other observations on the following market profile chart

07232014_marketprofile_NQ

Consolidations Are Not My Style

Day two over here of being tossed around by locals during a consolidation and boy do I feel frustrated.  I think I know what is happening here—I have a tendency to hunt out and buy into consolidating stocks.  The consolidating stock affords me the opportunity to clearly define the risk of my swing trade.  However, my trading style intraday on the /NQ_F is different.  I am not riding a position which can sit through the noise until a clear break emerges.  My risk per trade is too tight for this.  Thus, if a consolidation emerges my job going forward is to wait it out until an abnormal rotation takes place.

Otherwise I will keep donating my hard earned ticks back to the locals and robots.  I am defining my edge here, real time, using small position size.  I am happy to learn my methodology while it is still inexpensive.  I feel closer than ever to a workable trading model here.

To anyone who desires to trade discretionary in any product, my best advice so far is to find out what works for you while trading SMALL.  Also find out what is not working.  Consolidation trades are not working for me, at least not while trading the 1 lot.

When I envision trading more size, I would have carried a unit into the consolidation with a nice scale in place.  It would be much more simple to manage this position because my risk would be way below the consolidation zone as opposed to initiating fresh risk amid the consolidation.  Do you see how the two trades differ?

Anyhow, here are my daily stats below.  I dipped into the red today but spent most of the session confident in my methodology.

07222014_performancereport
I bought a Twitter weekly call early in the session, but when we fell out of the short squeeze, P-shaped profile I brought the risk back to cash.  The rest of my book stayed the same.  My DDD calls are not looking too hot, but I will see one more day of trade before acting.

Mama Likely

I like the way we opened for trade this morning in the Nasdaq, as of this writing (past results are not indicative of future returns, etc.) buyers have rejected away from yesterday’s range and held prices up near the highs.  I shuffled my book about a bit, selling my TSLA weeklies, and buying some AMZN weeklies, some SINA next weeklies, and I small earning’s gambol in X.

The current HOD in /NQ_F is so poor it has grocery bags for shoes.

LEVERAGE-D and preparing some meat trays for tonight’s earnings announcements.

The Joy of Price Discovery

The discovery process is ongoing in the Nasdaq futures, where contracts are currently trading a bit higher verse the close of Monday trade.  The lack of consensus can be seen on the 24 hour market profile which is not coming into balance.  The imbalance can also be seen on the intermediate term volume composite, where our current action resembles the toothy peaks and valleys of a ridged mountain range.  As we approach the open of US cash trade there is only the Case-Shiller Home Price index to anticipate.  After the open at 10am is the Consumer Confidence report.  Twitter is set to report earnings after the bell.

With three trading days left in the month of July, let us take a look at the monthly volume profile print:

07292014_Monthly_NQ

We can see the longer term trend being controlled by buyers who, after slugging it out for the first five months of the year, have pressed prices higher.  Bringing our attention in closer, we observe the intermediate term trend.  This is where the real battle has been taking place for the past 5-6 days.  The local, or day trader/dealer, is not the only participant in our current conditions.  Instead we are seeing day-timeframe levels ignored and instead the intermediate term levels being honored.  This behavior can shift any moment, but for now the price levels on the intermediate term timeframe are the most relevant, see below:

07292014_IntTerm_NQ

Finally, we can observe the following market profile levels, and how we interact with them, to determine if we re-enter a local-to-local chop-like environment.  If we see these short term levels as well as today’s developing value area honored and disputed, then we can assume longer timeframe participants have backed off until they again are motivated into action.  See below:

07292014_marketprofile_NQ

Man Down

Midway through the morning session I was taken out of the action when one of my PCs went haywire.  Funny how a touch screen monitor reacts to a calculator being thrown at it, but I digress.  There is something very exciting about the market of stocks right now, something almost intoxicating.  The intermediate term participants are jockeying for position and creating a great degree of uncertainty.  From uncertainty opportunity is born.  The obstacle is aversion and keeping yourself away from its deep dark corridors.

I am down two monitors on the day, from four, as a result my screen real estate has become twice as valuable and I have to simplify my operations.  This is an excellent opportunity to carefully clear some clutter off my screens.

We are approaching a key turning point in the market place—earnings season is time to gird your loins.  If your price action swing trade never bared fruit, you must dig up said tree and bury it.  If you have a long term commitment to a stock, you must prepare for failure and ineptitude which is completely out of your company’s control.  It is the whimsical nature of the market participants who will ultimately determine your short-term fate.  Do not fight it, simply embrace the uncertainty and make sure you are in bed with your vision.

I have long term commitments to four companies—I am a bit of a polygamist.  LO executed the most impressive land grab I have ever seen with regard to eCigarettes.  Their Blu™ device swarmed party stores and gas stations like the early German Blitzkriegs of World War II.  I put my long term faith in a company that executes and disrupts with that much speed and tenacity.  Disruption is always at the core of my long term investments, thus my other three investments should come as no surprise.

Tesla Motors is coming up the flank, and will devastate old TBTF auto industries and their gasoline infrastructure.  Their counter offensives have been impractical and unaccepted by the people who matter.  Elon Musk is a visionary and one of the greatest leaders of our generation.

Go Pro is the camera on everyone’s wish list.  It is durable, simple, and high definition.

Twitter is the ultimate disruptor of the most powerful force on our plant, media.  The pen has conquered and build nations for 100s of years.  He who controls the media controls the minds of the masses.  Twitter is a way of turning the control over to the user, the consumer.  It is a scary thought, but a generational disruption nonetheless.  Every day someone debates making a stupid, fuck you money, offer for this company.  What is it truly worth?  What is the collective, real time conscience of the world worth?

All of my other positions are tactical and short term.  WUBA is bringing the doom hammer down on China doubters.  Next shorts to die are VNET.  BIDU doubters are dead.  The beatings are scheduled to continue on a daily basis as we approach the coming of the Great One, ALI-BA-BA!!!!!! (extra Indiana Jones caveman)

I will have 4 screens in a few weeks, but until then I may reduce down to my core holdings.  TBD.

Doomsday approaches for WUBA shorts

Intermediate Term Players Making a Mess of The Field

Nasdaq futures are up a few points on the globex session after a quiet morning on the economic front.  Whether or not Hari Raya Puasa sees lower volume than a normal session is something to consider today.  We also have PMI Service flash at 9:45, Pending Home Sales Index at 10, and Dallas Fed at 10:30.

The overnight session saw a few large rotations in both directions, but the brunt of the action was seen pushing higher.  The index put in a fairly durable low around 7pm before exploring higher into the early morning.  We are now lingering up near the high of the session as the USA comes online.   The net globex profile has a slight skew which could resolve itself in a few ways, see below:

07282014_ONmarketprofile_NQ

We started to break intermediate term balance last week and explore higher.  However it seems the market is trying to not allow this, and as a result the intermediate term has become a bit of a mess.  This is actually a good thing, it affirms the idea of an out of balance marketplace and provides some very prominent low volume nodes as signposts as we trade.  However, if the intermediate term participants continue their activity this week, then we might see an uptick in volatility.  I have highlighted the key nodes below:

07282014_IntTerm_NQ

On the below market profile chart, I present the levels I will be watching as we start the week:

07282014_marketprofile_NQ

Watching The Intermediate Term Players

Nasdaq futures are down as we head into Friday trade, with the bulk of the selling taking place just after market close yesterday on the heels of earnings from AMZN, BIDU, and SBUX.  Since then we had some decent economic data from the UK which brought in a bit more selling, a minor extension, and at 8:30am we saw USA Durable Goods Orders release slightly better than consensus.  The latest data received a somewhat muted response.

The intermediate term timeframe participants have been very active this week.  Their behavior shows up in the day types we have been seeing—normal days and neutral days.  The normal days suggest they like to make their move early and then they do little else for the rest of the day.  The neutral day on Monday was the only session we saw activity throughout the entire session.  With that in mind, and the weekend edging closer, it makes sense to not rush nor force many trades today because the order flow may simply dry up—leaving you to be pushed around by big algos who eat ticks.  Also, since the intermediate term is active, it makes sense to observe the intermediate term timeframe closely.  We have some very prominent low volume nodes in the wake of our most recent advance, and any one of these might be a candidate for testing today.  Also note the large acceptance forming up near the highs.  Will this volume overhang become supply left behind or will we use it as a base for another leg?  See below:

07252014_IntTerm_NQ

Had I been trading yesterday, then I would have been looking for an afternoon short.  The profile yesterday shows an excess high or selling wick.  Since the day never range extended, one might have hypothesized some selling would come in toward the end of the day.  However, balance held and we printed value inside of Wednesday’s value.  We are set to gap well below Wednesday/Thursday value, and it will be interesting to see if we poke back up into the area or not.  I have highlighted these prices, as well as other prices I will be observing on the following market profile chart:
07252014_marketprofile_NQ

Packed Tight with Potential Energy

In light of my frustrated trading yesterday, I had little desire to pursue opportunity in the Nasdaq futures today. Instead I reviewed tape and read a book while keeping one eye on the marketplace.  How I felt yesterday was very subjective, with a distorted perception of reality.  When trading, it is up to us to change our attitude and act with purpose.  You can sit around waiting for someone to help you or you can take action today.

We printed another normal day in the NQ, the second this week.  A normal day is generally created by a swift entry of the other timeframe participant which has the effect of establishing a wide initial balance.  The rest of the day the other timeframe buyer and seller auction price back-and-forth and two way balanced trade takes place.  These are anti-momentum days intraday.  I am actually quite pleased to observe today’s normal day from the sidelines I tend to chop myself up in these conditions.  The key today was in the hypotheses.  As a matter of fact, the key to every day is the hypotheses.  Trades taken without a plan, no matter how nice the conditions look, back door screw me way too often.  Less is more intraday.  This is simple, only trade while applying a hypothesis after a trading picture emerges.  Simple, but not easy.

The big news on the session came from our favorite real estate apps, Z and TRLA.  Zillow is pursuing a bid to acquire Truila for a very cool two billion.  This calls into question the valuation of all internet real estate, because face it, internet real estate is very real.  You and I and Aunt Yellen have no idea how to truly value of these properties.  Smarter folks then us will use the open market to determine this, naturally.

I took down August calls in WUBA early and then some PCLN yolo action around lunchtime.  Other than that, I continue to sit here, in no particular hurry, watching my book of potent rockets sit at ground zero.

Tomorrow I will form a set of very high quality hypotheses after taking care to present you with the finest Nasdaq analysis money can buy (it’s free), and conditions willing I will take a trade or two.  No more guns blazing, especially on Fridays.

Intermediate Term Control

We have been observing the intermediate term closely this week after seeing a mini balance form within a larger balance thus forming the compression and potential for price discovery.  This all took place near the top end of the larger balance making the opportunity for a discovery higher distinct.  Yesterday we pressed right to the edge of the stratosphere (around 3974.25 according to balance analysis) and overnight more buying came in which is pushing us to new swing highs.  The timing of the buy flow lines up with the Euro Zone releasing their PMI data at 4am however we are seeing action based upon earnings as well as speculative heat in Chinese burritos and biotech.

I have noted very little on the intermediate term chart.  We are climbing a wonderful wall of worry one gap at a time.  The overnight gaps are a bit unsettling to say the least, however the foundation formed prior to this advance is as well-structured as we have seen since April.  See below:

07262014_Monthly_NQ

You can see the buyer control on the intermediate term as a series of higher highs and lows:

07242014_IntTerm_NQ

The question today is will we sustain a third gap higher, or will we discover a responsive seller strong enough to begin the process of backing and filling?  I have highlighted the key price levels I will be observing on the following market profile chart:

07242014_marketprofile_NQ

I Am Raul’s Chocolate Cake

Insanity is doing the same things over and over again and expecting different results.

-Albert Einstein

In case you think this is yesterday’s performance chart, think again!!!!  Your boy is losing it.  I will save you all the torturous introspective, just know the lunatic escaped from the asylum today and traded like it was groundhog day for fuckssake.

Highlights—a consolidation formed, consolidations “aren’t my thing”, I took 49304u45 trades inside of it, breaking all kinds of rules, and stopped myself just before hitting the old daily loss limit.  Then I sat in the woods and observed the squirrels and willfully allowed the mosquitoes to consume my flesh while I watched FB earnings.

Now I am off to scour craigslist for a physiatrist.

BUT FIRST, A PERF CHART FOR YOU COOL DOODS:

07232014_performancereport

Let’s see if my homie Marc over at FB is going to save my week tomorrow.  I am long of TWTR calls, next week expiry of course, because momo trading is PLUM SLOW.  TSLA calls too, GRPN calls ALSO.  Cool.

Good night

Another Gap to Swing High

The globex markets are the setting for bullish progress this week and early this morning we saw another wave of buying roll through the market.  As we enter the thick of earnings for major tech companies, the index teeters at annual highs.

The intermediate term is showing signs of coming out of balance.  Below yesterday we have a volume pocket separating us from the balance formation.  However, we could still explore a bit higher to settle out the imbalance existing from bottom tail-to-mid verses top tail-to mid.  I have highlighted this level as well as the pocket and key LVNs below:

07232014_IntTerm_NQ

Yesterday we printed a very clean “normal” day.  This type of day is characterized as having no range extension from initial balance and suggests an aggressive early entry by the buyers was following by balanced, two-way trade.  The placement at new swing highs suggests acceptance of these higher prices.  The late-afternoon selling was widely expected to continue but instead the dip was bought.  The one unique quirk that had so many day traders expecting a new LOD yesterday was the triple-bottom at initial balance low paired with the big gap.  These traders were stopped out but will be hunting a break of 3942.25 on any weakness.  I have highlighted this level and a few other observations on the following market profile chart

07232014_marketprofile_NQ

Consolidations Are Not My Style

Day two over here of being tossed around by locals during a consolidation and boy do I feel frustrated.  I think I know what is happening here—I have a tendency to hunt out and buy into consolidating stocks.  The consolidating stock affords me the opportunity to clearly define the risk of my swing trade.  However, my trading style intraday on the /NQ_F is different.  I am not riding a position which can sit through the noise until a clear break emerges.  My risk per trade is too tight for this.  Thus, if a consolidation emerges my job going forward is to wait it out until an abnormal rotation takes place.

Otherwise I will keep donating my hard earned ticks back to the locals and robots.  I am defining my edge here, real time, using small position size.  I am happy to learn my methodology while it is still inexpensive.  I feel closer than ever to a workable trading model here.

To anyone who desires to trade discretionary in any product, my best advice so far is to find out what works for you while trading SMALL.  Also find out what is not working.  Consolidation trades are not working for me, at least not while trading the 1 lot.

When I envision trading more size, I would have carried a unit into the consolidation with a nice scale in place.  It would be much more simple to manage this position because my risk would be way below the consolidation zone as opposed to initiating fresh risk amid the consolidation.  Do you see how the two trades differ?

Anyhow, here are my daily stats below.  I dipped into the red today but spent most of the session confident in my methodology.

07222014_performancereport
I bought a Twitter weekly call early in the session, but when we fell out of the short squeeze, P-shaped profile I brought the risk back to cash.  The rest of my book stayed the same.  My DDD calls are not looking too hot, but I will see one more day of trade before acting.