Tuesday, January 17, 2017
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,811 Blog Posts

Systems Updated: All Signals Say We Boil Shorts Slowly Ahead of The Inauguration

pepp

Greetings and warm welcome lads!  I am reporting to you from the bathhouse adjacent to iBankCoin laboratories where an old Russian man is beating me with oak branches.  After a long morning toiling away inside the furnace room, it’s a welcome relaxation. It appears short sellers are in hot water heading into the holiday-shortened week, doesn’t it?

The pesky NASDAQ keeps rising, slowly, keeping dip buyers sidelined and shorts from leaving.  All very kind and clean.

The others majors, simply marking time.  Perhaps they begin to drift higher Tuesday?  This is what the IndexModel suggests heading into next week.

Ice bucket to the head, my best guess is we drift through next week then blast higher Friday morning during the inauguration—leaving anyone who is waiting until after the seismic geopolitical shift sidelined.

This hypothesis was derived from the objective findings inside the 114th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session, which is now live.

There is another key seasonality opportunity setting up that we need to act quick if we intend to capture it.  Check out Section II for more info.

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Spirit Airlines Claims All Other Airlines Are FAKE NEWS

LUV-Jan2-17mailer

Spirit Airlines blasted out an email promotion which claims their competitors are nothing but fake news:

fakenews-LUV

Brilliant.

Most of my flights are via Contortionist Airlines aka Spirit because my body is limber, and their no frills approach appeases my inner stoic.  The entire process of traveling is a mental test.  Humans are, vile creatures by nature.  The smell, and the shedding.

Turbulence often rattles loose air trapped in the gastrointestinal system.  The spittle from a sneeze.  Drunks.

These are my people, the derelicts who jam into small aluminum cylinders by the 100s to travel above the clouds on ghetto Spirit flights which are most often filled to capacity.

And the fuckers get you to spend as much as you would for a conventional flight from United or someone better.  They fleece you once you’re in their web.  Their bag weight limit, for instance, is 40 pounds instead of the standard 50.  Go over and you’re forking out another 30 bucks or some bullshit.  Just one example.

Overall, when a company stays up to date with their marketing, and pulls stunts like this, it tells me they get it.

Spirit air officially claims the “other guys” are fake news.

BULLISH

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Understanding A Basic Tenent of Technical Analysis: Range Trading

switchBkid

You may notice I’ve slightly backed off the mouth foaming rhetoric about my bullishness in Tesla Motors.  While still my absolute favorite long-term investment, it’s now trading above intermediate term value.

Does that mean I will sell?

No.  Nah son, that’s a petty move.

But you need to understand a few basic tenents of technical analysis.  One is balance, also known as range.  Stocks spend the majority of their time in balance.  Identifying and plotting the territory is key to assessing whether your idea is ‘working’ and also when and where to take action.

If I were a more fickle Tesla investor, thank goodness I am not, then I would consider capturing some of the recent gains from sub-200 as we approach range high, see below:

tsla-monthly

The same method of trading can be applied to any instrument.  Buy range low, sell range high.  Eventually you’ll need risk parameters in place to get you out of the way when the break happens.  When the break happens, it will be explosive due to one ‘side’ of the tape being wrong.

For now, and despite political transition, an end to California’s drought, an acquisition of a solar company, and massive updates to the Autopilot feature, there has not been a shift in the perceived value of $TSLA equity.

Understand range trading, and you will be well on your way to better stock market decision making.

Tech Analysis 101

#STUDY

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Robots Continue To Bid NASDAQ Heading into Friday

robotsOFfutureamam

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight in the same manner it ascended since about 11am Thursday—a slow, steady, churn higher.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came in below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am, the preliminary January reading of U. of Michigan confidence at 10am, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed the second consecutive neutral extreme up.  After starting the day gap down sellers drove lower, pressing down around the 5000 century mark before a bid stepped in.  WE then spent the rest of the day algorithmically grinding higher.  Interesting note, value never shifted higher on the day, instead remaining down in the lower quardrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5035.25.  This sets up a move down through overnight low 5034.  Look for bidders around 5015 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 we press up and close the Thursday gap at 5046.50 then continue higher, up to 5054 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 a short squeeze takes hold after we sustain trade above 5058 and we trend higher into the weekend.

Levels:

01132017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01132017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Fiat Fires Back: CEO Marchionne Calls EPA Allegation of Cheating Diesel Emissions “Unadulterated Hogwash”

fiat-chrysler

Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne met with reporters Thursday to defend against an EPA claim that the diesel engines in Dodge Ram and Jeeps were cheating emissions.

Their leadership has a spine, it seems. He further elaborated that he would take draconian measures to punish any cheaters within his organization:

The Italian-American car maker issued a statement claiming the company has spent months providing information to the EPA in hopes of explaining their emissions control technology to agents at the EPA.

Below are the specific details regarding the EPA accusation:

The EPA today accused Fiat Chrysler of using software on 100,000 Jeep and Ram models equipped with a 3.0-liter EcoDiesel V6 engine that reduced NOx emissions during lab certification testing, but allowed the engines to give off more emissions in real-world driving.

FCA, in its statement, also appeared to illustrate where both parties are at a disagreement. The official regulations for a defeat device prohibits the use of an auxiliary emission control device (AECD) “unless … the need for the AECD is justified in terms of protecting the vehicle against damage or accident.”

The good news is leadership at Fiat is actively addressing the EPA claim against them.  Wall Street has rewarded their Italian, aggressive hand gesturing vivacious rebuttal by appreciating the share price off its lows.  The bad news is the stock is still ending Thursday down nearly -10%

$FCAU

BEARISH

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EPA Bearing Down Hard on The Earth Killers at Fiat Chrysler for Disgusting Abuse of Diesel Emissions

truck-smoke-2

Agents at the Environmental Protection Agency intend to accuse the polenta eaters at Fiat Chrysler of using software that allowed heavy diesel emissions to spew from the exhaust pipes of their U.S. trucks and SUVs.

dodge-POS

Shares of the company $FCAU are being slaughtered in early Thursday trade, currently down more than -15% at the New York Stock exchange.  Reuters with the details:

The EPA told the automaker it believes its undeclared emissions control software allowed vehicles to generate excess pollution in violation of the law. Fiat Chrysler declined to comment.

Its U.S.-listed shares were down 9 percent.

The EPA will announce the findings at an 11 a.m. conference call. It comes amid rising scrutiny by EPA of automaker emissions after Volkswagen AG admitted to cheating diesel emissions tests in 580,000 U.S. vehicles.

The EPA has for months declined to certify Fiat Chrysler’s 2017 diesel vehicles for sale in the United States.

Investors are fleeing from the Italian auto-conglomerate ahead of what is likely to be damning evidence from the EPA against Dodge pickup trucks.  Fiat officially aquired Chrysler back in January ’14.  The two companies have been allies since mid-2009 when the gluttonous American auto group went bankrupt—shortly after the Germans abandoned the Neon makers.

Funny aside–yours truly worked for the failing Chrysler group back in 2008 and gave a provoking presentation to 100s of executives, telling them they were fucked, and that I had no interest in going down with the ship.

The blow to Chrysler comes just days after the god damned Honda Ridgeline was named 2017 ‘Truck of the Year’ at the Detroit auto show.

Today is probably a fun day to peruse the empty hallways of Chrysler’s insanely oversized Auburn Hills tech center.

Diesel cars must adhere to strict EPA guidelines if they are to be driven in the United States, and it appears the fascists at Fiat Chrysler could not remain complaint.

BEARISH

 

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First Real Overnight Gap of The Week is Down

night-traders-80s

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked above the Wednesday high briefly before falling lower.  The market is still holding high balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After briefly going range extension up Wednesday morning, sellers made a push lower during the Donald Trump press conference.  This traded right down to value area low 5007.75 where responsive buyers stepped in.  Said buyers traversed the entire daily range and the day closed at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5046.50 setting up a move to target 5054 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 5058..

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5028 and work lower to target the 5000 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

01122017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01122017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Strong NASDAQ Cruising into Wednesday; Sustains Highs Through Mid-week

hogs

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, holding the Tuesday range while essentially marking time.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  It had notes of a subtle double distribution trend up, primarilly because of a strong pre-lunch surge higher.  The move made it up just two-ticks shy of the Exodus strategy session high before ultimately fading into end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5038.25.  From here price continues higher, up to 5050 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work down through overnight low 5023.75 setting up a move to target 5016.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight range, from 5040 to 5025 in a do nothing kind of drifting day.

Levels:

01112017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01112017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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General Motors Spikes Higher Tuesday After Adding $5B To Share Buyback Plan

gov-motors

Share of government bail-out entity General Motors are spiking higher Tuesday after the car maker announced they will add $5 billion dollars to their buyback plan.

You are witnessing the real catalyst to a stock on Wall Street, artificial financial crap moves, not innovation.  But, alas, when dealing with a giant, shouldn’t exist (at least not in this capacity), type-business like $GM, it is tough to innovate.

A reversion to the mean is more likely.

That is, unless you do some financial funny business to stimulate the investor class.

The announcement came during the Deutsche Bank Auto Conference, where according to Benzinga the company also said they will, “have an active voice as NAFTA policies shift.”

There is one car to get excited about from Government Motors, however.  At least, if you’re into efficiency and love planet earth—look at this kick ass Chevy Cruze.  It’s diesel and is aiming to achieve 50 miles-per-gallon:

cruz-d

It may not arouse you visually, but a compact diesel offering has been missing from US fleets for decades.  Instead you had to go to the Germans if you wanted to drive a diesel car in USA.

The share buyback is an admission by GM that they cannot think of a more fruitful use for their (our, yours, what?) money.

Bullish?

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New High Balance Forms; NASDAQ Holds onto Upper Rim

ski-in-cabin

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  A new value formed yesterday/overnight while price held Monday range during the Globex session.

The economic calendar is light today.  At 10am we have Wholesale Inventories, at 11:30am a 4-week T-bill auction and at 1pm a 3-year note auction.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap up and the rest of the day we spent slowly drifting higher, up to new highs where responsive sellers were found, ending the day above the midpoint but back down near daily value.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up though overnight high 5026 and target 5034 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up to 5047.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 seller press down through overnight low 5007.25 and test 5000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers press down below 5000 setting up a move to target 4982.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

01102017_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

01102017_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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