Cock It And Pull It

331 views

Up until the closing seconds of the day, our friend Nasdaq was printing the illusive normal day. These day types are anything but, and it morphed into a normal variation on the closing tick (much to stat head’s chagrin) but its appearance atop a pro gap was a bit divine.

My weekend work had me prepared to receive a rake to the crotch-al region come Monday because well, charts looked pretty glum, chum. However, much to my delight the ubiquitous they decided it was high time we mark up prices.

They do so to help our good friends in the business of raising money. You see, who wants to show clients a flat quarterly S&P 500? Everyone knows you either grow or die. A plateau is the siesta before fate. No, we must show turnt up gains.

In other news, despite hostile weather conditions sending a Canadian airliner careening to earth, SAVE is on a tear—a tear, mind you, that was served on a platter via The PPT. It shall continue to run, or fly, if I may be so bold. For reasons unbeknownst to me, XLE had a stupendous day as well. So my energy-airline strategy had an all around swell showing.

It can be hard to execute in this tape. Markets are elevated, stocks are all over the place, pets HEADS ARE FALLING OFF. Find a way to cut through the BS and generate your own ideas. Hint—use stats.

Speed Zones on Both Sides of The Tape

314 views

Nasdaq futures are set to gap up this Monday after trading an abnormal 50 point range during globex. Around 8pm buyers started working, and just before 11pm a large stop-run style push worked through. The move held though some 2-way action and ahead of the European markets opening it went on a secondary rally before finding sellers right as Euro markets opened.

Price is set to open inside the afternoon value zone formed last Wednesday during the trend lower. On both sides of this distribution the action can accelerate. Thus today carries an elevated risk:reward.

At 8:30am we had Personal Spending/Consumption data and saw a muted reaction. At 10am Pending Home Sales are out, and keep in mind we have German Unemployment stats out tonight.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into this overnight inventory. Look for a struggle at 4338.75 but sellers manage to take out that area and work to 4323.

Hypo 2 is buyers sustain trade above 4338 and continue working higher. If they can take out overnight high 4367.50 then look for a push up through 4381 to run up the thin area to 4397.

Hypo 3 is we stick in a range between 4360 and 4340 (unlikely).

Levels:

NQ_MP_03302015

Buckle Up

603 views

This week is set to be a wild one. Q1 is coming to an end and the economic calendar is jammed with events including the big dog, Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning.

It has been a gnarly quarter requiring tactical positioning and lowered expectations. It will be interesting to see whether we ease into Q2, or if instead it comes in like a lion.

Weekly Strategy Session subs, the latest report should be hitting your inbox shortly. There’s some new content in there courtesy of Exodus. I hope you enjoy it. If you have any questions about the Exodus data presented, shoot me an email twosmuth@gmail.com.

It’s Going Down: The Benzinga FinTech Awards Gala

746 views

Benzinga_FinTech_2015

Industries are driven to innovate because of necessity. The finance industry is in a constant state of flux due to the immense resources competing and exponential opportunities that exist. While some would rather observe the conditions and complain about rigging, others are hacking into the system and creating really cool technology to stay competitive.

Benzing is going a step further this year and pitting financial technology companies against each other. Out of over 100 entrants, only one will be crowned the “Most Innovative FinTech Company”. I wouldn’t ignore this battle if I were you.

I’ll be heading over to New York City this upcoming month to attend the awards gala. You should too. It is shaping up to be the Oscars of trading/investing technology.

Click below to see more details about this event:

http://benzingafintechawards.com/

I AM A ROBOT OVERLORD

1,283 views

I like rules, and structure, because it allows me to track outcome and repeat what works.

Twice this week I talked through a trade I’ve been developing using the NAS100 TICK. It’s nothing fancy—just a 3rd sigma event that happens 5-7 times per week. If it stands up to walk-forward analysis [the back test has a positive expectancy] then I can add it to my intra day Nasdaq repertoire.

Behind the scenes I have been completely absorbed in Exodus. Without spending a ton of time, I can work a layer of fundamental analysis into my trade qualification. The algos help define the holding period and give me a ballpark target to shoot for.   These tools are fantastic for improving trade management skills.

Markets behavior is mixed and aggressive, which is reasonable given the overall nature of Q1. I will have a clearer view of our situation after I build next week’s strategy session.

Salvaging The Week

735 views

Nasdaq bulls were knocked around well this week by sellers who took advantage of the thin market profile left behind after the Fed back on 3/18. After sliding down through that region they used their momentum to overshoot the reaction zone and close the 3/13 gap and push through most of its range.

Futures were flat heading into the 8:30am GDP and Personal Consumption data. Also on the agenda today is the U of M Confidence data at 10am, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm, and a sneaky 3:45pm Yellen speaking engagement on Monetary Policy. The initial reaction after the GDP data was selling.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to attempt a continuation of yesterday’s rebound. If they can push above yesterday’s session high 4331 I will look for an accelerated move up to the NVPOC at 4350.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push us below 4300 early on and sustain trade below it to set up a move toward overnight low 4297.25 then a continued exploration lower below Thursday’s low 4271.75. If responsive buyers are not found here, then it opens the door for a push down to 4250.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03272015

Lower Manhattan Explosion Puts Meerkat and Periscope To The Test

654 views

meerkat

A fire broke out in the East Village this afternoon and again, I am not making light this event because it’s likely some people were hurt.

Everyone wants to look at a fire. It’s like a train wreck, humans just can’t turn away. It’s wired deep into our brains to watch these events unfold.

The fire effectively pinned live-streaming apps Meerkat and Periscope against one another.  If you recall, Periscope is Twitter’s most recent acquisition. I have an important announcement to make:

Periscope, you passed, barely. Do you know what your grade is? F+

The lack of search ability inside the Periscope app was frustrating on my iPhone. I had to keep going to my Twitter app to click links which would open inside the Periscope app, then they would either suck or be over. Then finding a new link inside Periscope was impossible.  So it was back to Twitter.

Am I embellishing this first world problem?  A bit, but a fussy user interface isn’t something mankind tolerates here in the future.

Meerkat worked a bit better for me in the moment.  When I finally was on a good Meerkat feed, @Lanceulanoff said he had 336 on his Meerkat and only 36 on his Periscope. His commentary was not rubbish like the other clown feeds I was stumbling into.  Overall though, I found the UI a bit more pleasant inside Periscope.  It had a little more elegance and a little less black and yellow.

AS FOR THE MARKETS. They’re dangling on the cusp here. Hopefully is sucks a bunch of bears in and squeezes them. That would be best case scenario for ‘this guy’.

They Came After Me

507 views

It’s not paranoia if they’re out to get you. Please folks, don’t think I am making light of the plane crash that happened only hours after my SAVE purchase. It is tragic for the souls who perished and their families.   Keep them in your thoughts as they cope with this unexpected tragedy.  I survived a mountain airplane crash, it was a huge relief but an anomaly.  Crashing in the mountains carries a low probability of survival.

The manner by which SAVE traded this morning irks me.  Public disclosure of stops makes me paranoid.

Nevertheless SAVE went right to my soft zone and stalled before finding buyers.  Thus far it has made an avid recovery. If the troglodyte predator algos [intended oxymoron] thought they would snipe me out of a good idea because I was using a physical stop, may they chagrin at their failure and gasp for air as the vice grip of logos constricts their naked person.

In closing, I procured a new position this morning, another slow play. If you truly care to know just shoot me a DM on Twitter [@twosmuth]. CHGG and my Russell theory are still holding up, energy is strong [and I am not concerned with ‘the why’], and the Nasdaq has gone range extension up.

I can work in these conditions. My only concern is GoPro finally getting its act together and I am without exposure.

 

The Speed Is Back (So Soon?)

443 views

Nasdaq futures are running abnormally hot this morning with extreme range readings (beyond 2nd sigma) and abnormal volume. The market managed to 1 time frame down (price discovery) up until about 6am when buyers began defending just below the 3/13 swing low. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claim readings initially brought more selling in but have since reversed said losses.

Also on the economic calendar today is Markit Composite/Service PMI at 9:45am, Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am, and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity at 11am. Keep in mind there are also some GPD readings out Friday before market open.

The market is currently pricing a pro gap down. Any attempt to fade this move would require significant resources. The open print will be way out of balance and is likely to encourage other time frame activity.

Taking to the charts, we can see sellers probing back into the upper-most distribution of our multi-month consolidation which precluded the latest rally. Now that we have pushed through its HVN (4285.25) it is likely we test down through the other side of it which would mean a move to about 4250.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for some whipsaw at the open before buyers make an attempt higher to work into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers to defend ahead of 4308.75 to set up a move below the overnight low 4270.

Hypo 2 is a full gap fill up to 4325.50.

Hypo 3 is a gap and go lower to continue the 1 time frame trending activity.

Hypo 4 is a push below overnight low 4270 which is met by responsive buying ahead of 4250 and we balance out on the lower end of the top distribution.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03262015

 

A Strategic Purchase

640 views

I am flexing my Old Testament muscles into the close. Exodus is completely changing the way I select stocks. Usually my ideas evolve out of bigger themes I believe in. One such theme has been energy. I like energy. Everyone’s hooked on it. Take it away for a week and you’ll see what I mean.

Energy is tricky though. Entire countries are dependent upon the sale of natural energy resources. Thus the political theater, special interest, and other powers well beyond the means of your boy Raul are at play. Thus if I am to even step into this arena I need institutional grade weaponry.

I took a position in SAVE today. It’s serves as part of a bigger energy trade I am working. The position consists of XLE, OIS, AAL, and SAVE [listed largest to smallest].

Per the Weekly Strategy Session, I wanted to see energy plays strong early in the week. The thing is, I don’t entirely trust oil bulls. Here’s why:

CL_03252015

Weakness in oil has potential to stimulate the share prices of airlines. Also, if you read into the CPI data out yesterday, the airline prices are going up despite the deals in oil. Go figure.

Now I turn to Exodus. My timing has been mushy lately. I’ve also been buying stupid companies with unacceptable fundamentals. Now I can quickly scan fundamentals before execution. Have a look at a few screens on $SAVE, where business is booming and their valuation is still reasonable:

SAVE_FUNDIES

Then there is the real meat of Exodus and what makes its more powerful than anyone else’s screeners and tools, the predictive element. It is flagging oversold on the 12-month algo with nice stats behind it:

SAVE_OS

Finally, from a technical perspective, which is now my least important parameter but mainly a risk profile tool, we are on day three down so it’s likely to become a bit rocky for the bears. Also, we’re at the low end of a range that the shares have traded through. Thus, despite looking like a knife catch today, it’s a reasonable zone to take some risk.

When dealing with cavemen, you’ve got to get biblical. Godspeed mates.

Cock It And Pull It

331 views

Up until the closing seconds of the day, our friend Nasdaq was printing the illusive normal day. These day types are anything but, and it morphed into a normal variation on the closing tick (much to stat head’s chagrin) but its appearance atop a pro gap was a bit divine.

My weekend work had me prepared to receive a rake to the crotch-al region come Monday because well, charts looked pretty glum, chum. However, much to my delight the ubiquitous they decided it was high time we mark up prices.

They do so to help our good friends in the business of raising money. You see, who wants to show clients a flat quarterly S&P 500? Everyone knows you either grow or die. A plateau is the siesta before fate. No, we must show turnt up gains.

In other news, despite hostile weather conditions sending a Canadian airliner careening to earth, SAVE is on a tear—a tear, mind you, that was served on a platter via The PPT. It shall continue to run, or fly, if I may be so bold. For reasons unbeknownst to me, XLE had a stupendous day as well. So my energy-airline strategy had an all around swell showing.

It can be hard to execute in this tape. Markets are elevated, stocks are all over the place, pets HEADS ARE FALLING OFF. Find a way to cut through the BS and generate your own ideas. Hint—use stats.

Speed Zones on Both Sides of The Tape

314 views

Nasdaq futures are set to gap up this Monday after trading an abnormal 50 point range during globex. Around 8pm buyers started working, and just before 11pm a large stop-run style push worked through. The move held though some 2-way action and ahead of the European markets opening it went on a secondary rally before finding sellers right as Euro markets opened.

Price is set to open inside the afternoon value zone formed last Wednesday during the trend lower. On both sides of this distribution the action can accelerate. Thus today carries an elevated risk:reward.

At 8:30am we had Personal Spending/Consumption data and saw a muted reaction. At 10am Pending Home Sales are out, and keep in mind we have German Unemployment stats out tonight.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into this overnight inventory. Look for a struggle at 4338.75 but sellers manage to take out that area and work to 4323.

Hypo 2 is buyers sustain trade above 4338 and continue working higher. If they can take out overnight high 4367.50 then look for a push up through 4381 to run up the thin area to 4397.

Hypo 3 is we stick in a range between 4360 and 4340 (unlikely).

Levels:

NQ_MP_03302015

Buckle Up

603 views

This week is set to be a wild one. Q1 is coming to an end and the economic calendar is jammed with events including the big dog, Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday morning.

It has been a gnarly quarter requiring tactical positioning and lowered expectations. It will be interesting to see whether we ease into Q2, or if instead it comes in like a lion.

Weekly Strategy Session subs, the latest report should be hitting your inbox shortly. There’s some new content in there courtesy of Exodus. I hope you enjoy it. If you have any questions about the Exodus data presented, shoot me an email twosmuth@gmail.com.

It’s Going Down: The Benzinga FinTech Awards Gala

746 views

Benzinga_FinTech_2015

Industries are driven to innovate because of necessity. The finance industry is in a constant state of flux due to the immense resources competing and exponential opportunities that exist. While some would rather observe the conditions and complain about rigging, others are hacking into the system and creating really cool technology to stay competitive.

Benzing is going a step further this year and pitting financial technology companies against each other. Out of over 100 entrants, only one will be crowned the “Most Innovative FinTech Company”. I wouldn’t ignore this battle if I were you.

I’ll be heading over to New York City this upcoming month to attend the awards gala. You should too. It is shaping up to be the Oscars of trading/investing technology.

Click below to see more details about this event:

http://benzingafintechawards.com/

I AM A ROBOT OVERLORD

1,283 views

I like rules, and structure, because it allows me to track outcome and repeat what works.

Twice this week I talked through a trade I’ve been developing using the NAS100 TICK. It’s nothing fancy—just a 3rd sigma event that happens 5-7 times per week. If it stands up to walk-forward analysis [the back test has a positive expectancy] then I can add it to my intra day Nasdaq repertoire.

Behind the scenes I have been completely absorbed in Exodus. Without spending a ton of time, I can work a layer of fundamental analysis into my trade qualification. The algos help define the holding period and give me a ballpark target to shoot for.   These tools are fantastic for improving trade management skills.

Markets behavior is mixed and aggressive, which is reasonable given the overall nature of Q1. I will have a clearer view of our situation after I build next week’s strategy session.

Salvaging The Week

735 views

Nasdaq bulls were knocked around well this week by sellers who took advantage of the thin market profile left behind after the Fed back on 3/18. After sliding down through that region they used their momentum to overshoot the reaction zone and close the 3/13 gap and push through most of its range.

Futures were flat heading into the 8:30am GDP and Personal Consumption data. Also on the agenda today is the U of M Confidence data at 10am, Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm, and a sneaky 3:45pm Yellen speaking engagement on Monetary Policy. The initial reaction after the GDP data was selling.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to attempt a continuation of yesterday’s rebound. If they can push above yesterday’s session high 4331 I will look for an accelerated move up to the NVPOC at 4350.75.

Hypo 2 is sellers push us below 4300 early on and sustain trade below it to set up a move toward overnight low 4297.25 then a continued exploration lower below Thursday’s low 4271.75. If responsive buyers are not found here, then it opens the door for a push down to 4250.

Levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03272015

Lower Manhattan Explosion Puts Meerkat and Periscope To The Test

654 views

meerkat

A fire broke out in the East Village this afternoon and again, I am not making light this event because it’s likely some people were hurt.

Everyone wants to look at a fire. It’s like a train wreck, humans just can’t turn away. It’s wired deep into our brains to watch these events unfold.

The fire effectively pinned live-streaming apps Meerkat and Periscope against one another.  If you recall, Periscope is Twitter’s most recent acquisition. I have an important announcement to make:

Periscope, you passed, barely. Do you know what your grade is? F+

The lack of search ability inside the Periscope app was frustrating on my iPhone. I had to keep going to my Twitter app to click links which would open inside the Periscope app, then they would either suck or be over. Then finding a new link inside Periscope was impossible.  So it was back to Twitter.

Am I embellishing this first world problem?  A bit, but a fussy user interface isn’t something mankind tolerates here in the future.

Meerkat worked a bit better for me in the moment.  When I finally was on a good Meerkat feed, @Lanceulanoff said he had 336 on his Meerkat and only 36 on his Periscope. His commentary was not rubbish like the other clown feeds I was stumbling into.  Overall though, I found the UI a bit more pleasant inside Periscope.  It had a little more elegance and a little less black and yellow.

AS FOR THE MARKETS. They’re dangling on the cusp here. Hopefully is sucks a bunch of bears in and squeezes them. That would be best case scenario for ‘this guy’.

They Came After Me

507 views

It’s not paranoia if they’re out to get you. Please folks, don’t think I am making light of the plane crash that happened only hours after my SAVE purchase. It is tragic for the souls who perished and their families.   Keep them in your thoughts as they cope with this unexpected tragedy.  I survived a mountain airplane crash, it was a huge relief but an anomaly.  Crashing in the mountains carries a low probability of survival.

The manner by which SAVE traded this morning irks me.  Public disclosure of stops makes me paranoid.

Nevertheless SAVE went right to my soft zone and stalled before finding buyers.  Thus far it has made an avid recovery. If the troglodyte predator algos [intended oxymoron] thought they would snipe me out of a good idea because I was using a physical stop, may they chagrin at their failure and gasp for air as the vice grip of logos constricts their naked person.

In closing, I procured a new position this morning, another slow play. If you truly care to know just shoot me a DM on Twitter [@twosmuth]. CHGG and my Russell theory are still holding up, energy is strong [and I am not concerned with ‘the why’], and the Nasdaq has gone range extension up.

I can work in these conditions. My only concern is GoPro finally getting its act together and I am without exposure.

 

The Speed Is Back (So Soon?)

443 views

Nasdaq futures are running abnormally hot this morning with extreme range readings (beyond 2nd sigma) and abnormal volume. The market managed to 1 time frame down (price discovery) up until about 6am when buyers began defending just below the 3/13 swing low. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claim readings initially brought more selling in but have since reversed said losses.

Also on the economic calendar today is Markit Composite/Service PMI at 9:45am, Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am, and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing activity at 11am. Keep in mind there are also some GPD readings out Friday before market open.

The market is currently pricing a pro gap down. Any attempt to fade this move would require significant resources. The open print will be way out of balance and is likely to encourage other time frame activity.

Taking to the charts, we can see sellers probing back into the upper-most distribution of our multi-month consolidation which precluded the latest rally. Now that we have pushed through its HVN (4285.25) it is likely we test down through the other side of it which would mean a move to about 4250.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for some whipsaw at the open before buyers make an attempt higher to work into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers to defend ahead of 4308.75 to set up a move below the overnight low 4270.

Hypo 2 is a full gap fill up to 4325.50.

Hypo 3 is a gap and go lower to continue the 1 time frame trending activity.

Hypo 4 is a push below overnight low 4270 which is met by responsive buying ahead of 4250 and we balance out on the lower end of the top distribution.

These levels are highlighted below:

NQ_MPVP_03262015

 

A Strategic Purchase

640 views

I am flexing my Old Testament muscles into the close. Exodus is completely changing the way I select stocks. Usually my ideas evolve out of bigger themes I believe in. One such theme has been energy. I like energy. Everyone’s hooked on it. Take it away for a week and you’ll see what I mean.

Energy is tricky though. Entire countries are dependent upon the sale of natural energy resources. Thus the political theater, special interest, and other powers well beyond the means of your boy Raul are at play. Thus if I am to even step into this arena I need institutional grade weaponry.

I took a position in SAVE today. It’s serves as part of a bigger energy trade I am working. The position consists of XLE, OIS, AAL, and SAVE [listed largest to smallest].

Per the Weekly Strategy Session, I wanted to see energy plays strong early in the week. The thing is, I don’t entirely trust oil bulls. Here’s why:

CL_03252015

Weakness in oil has potential to stimulate the share prices of airlines. Also, if you read into the CPI data out yesterday, the airline prices are going up despite the deals in oil. Go figure.

Now I turn to Exodus. My timing has been mushy lately. I’ve also been buying stupid companies with unacceptable fundamentals. Now I can quickly scan fundamentals before execution. Have a look at a few screens on $SAVE, where business is booming and their valuation is still reasonable:

SAVE_FUNDIES

Then there is the real meat of Exodus and what makes its more powerful than anyone else’s screeners and tools, the predictive element. It is flagging oversold on the 12-month algo with nice stats behind it:

SAVE_OS

Finally, from a technical perspective, which is now my least important parameter but mainly a risk profile tool, we are on day three down so it’s likely to become a bit rocky for the bears. Also, we’re at the low end of a range that the shares have traded through. Thus, despite looking like a knife catch today, it’s a reasonable zone to take some risk.

When dealing with cavemen, you’ve got to get biblical. Godspeed mates.