Range and volume picked up slightly compared to recent weeks but still is well within the confines of normal. Price spent most of the overnight session pushing lower but flattened out before taking out yesterday’s low.
Yesterday we opened gap down and buyers were unable to fill the gap. Instead sellers stepped in just beyond the VPOC 4470 and began pressing lower. They managed to take out Monday’ low and pressed below last Friday’s low before finding responsive buyers. Once found, buyers pushed back up abpve the mid to close the session down slightly.
This morning we head ADP employment change which came out a bit worse than expected and saw a muted reaction in the futures. Ahead on the docket is Fed Evans talking economics at 9am, ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, Crude/Distillate Inventories at 10:30am, and most important Fed Beige Book at 2pm.
Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory early on and press for a gap fill up to 4457.50. From there I will look for yesterday’s sellers to become initiative and work lower through yesterday’s session low 4432.50 to take out the weak/double low at 4429.25 and target the NVPOC at 4418.
Hypo 2 is buyers hold yesterday’s low and work higher to close the Monday/Tuesday gap to 4478.75.
Hypo 3 is a drive down off the open, take out weak/double low 4429.25 early and press down through the LVN at 4413.
Levels are highlighted below: