Tape Speed Gone-Zo

92 views

Right before our eyes, the market behavior is changing. Perhaps it is the New York blizzard. Or maybe it’s Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, or all the heavy hitters reporting this week, or last week’s stimulus package. That’s just the thing, canoodling up to a reason, a ‘why’ if you will, provides comfort and security.

I say to hell with feeling comfortable. I would just as soon trade my clothes for burlap then be in a state of complacent comfort. The modern world is no place for the smiling sloth. Nature still favors the paranoid squirrel, and rewards him with a fluffier tail and sharper eyes.

VA is down a quick 5% on me. This is why you cannot chase VA. This is also why I ease into VA, several times, slowly.

Energy as a sector is looking good today. As an oil, it looks like a bear, grr.

It has been a good day for Elon Musk. His index [TSLA and SCTY] are up nicely to start the week. His autos were the most impressive feature of the Detroit Auto Show, as were his models, brilliant. The NSX was a close second.

The market is trying to roll over but not doing a good job of it. This afternoon I going live on the mic to MC this action and find some money extraction points. See you in the Afterhours.

Interesting Overnight Action To Start The Week

121 views

Buyers are showing some aggression as we approach cash open in the Nasdaq. The session started off weak Sunday evening with some attributing the move to the outcome of the Greek elections. The move lower around 6pm Sunday took place on light volume and buyers defended the upper edge of value formed Thursday afternoon. Once the globex auction turned around it spent the rest of the session slowly churning higher.

This week’s economic calendar starts off slow and builds in complexity. We have tons of earnings out and a heavy calendar of economic stats. Today we have Dallas Fed at 10:30am and Microsoft reporting after the bell.

Taking to the charts, we can see the Nasdaq went on a four day unidirectional streak to the upside, with Friday’s profile forming a balance on top of the range.  Typically after three days of trade in one direction we start to see price action become more two-way. After four days it becomes even more likely.

Price has so far managed to push up to the upper third distribution of volume. The current micro composite structure as we form this big range has three distinct areas of value with air pockets in between. These air pockets zones are where we see the dramatic, discovery-type moves take place. We could see downside action gain speed, given our current location. See below:

01262015_NQ_VP

So far sellers are defending the upper region of value. Whether they can continue doing so will be my primary focus this morning. My primary expectation this morning is for a choppy, two way auction on the open with sellers a bit more aggressive. They work to fill the overnight gap to 4268 and test the lower end of Friday’s value 4255-4253.75 where we see responsive buyers. These buyers than work up toward the MCHVN at 4285.25 and potentially test above Friday’s high to tag the HVN at 4293.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers active, perhaps not allowing the overnight gap fill to 4268 before making a move to take out Friday’s high 4286.50 and testing up to 4300 where we find responsive sellers and balance out.

Hypo 3 is sellers extend below 4254 and work down through the air pocket to target the overnight low 4231.50 and the naked VPOC below it at 4226.50. I have highlighted my key market profile levels below:

NQ_MarketProfile_01262015

Oil Is Still Heading Lower

55 views

 

 

Here’s the look heading into the open.  Stops are being run, lets see how much speed they bring into the tape:QM_VP012262015

 

These Are All Important Matters

151 views

First and foremost, the eleventh issue of the Weekly Strategy Session has been sent out to subscribers. May you find it of value. As strategy sessions readers know, we have a running counter which tracks the contextual bias calls made each Sunday. After ten predictions, here is where we stand:

01252015_BiasBook_counterSo far, if you toss out the Time Stop weeks the data is not showing an edge anywhere but the Dow Jones. In the Dow Jones predictions have been 70% correct. Any stat head will quickly dismiss this data set, as do I. There’s a general consensus that 50 samples are the minimum before an observation can be judged as significant. But my hand is on fire in the Dow. I don’t even trade the Dow, nor am I patting myself on the back. Only suggesting that over the course of the past 10 weeks we have seen a healthier auction occurring in the Dow.

Next, as some of you may know, Option Addict is handing me the keys to the After Hours session to start the week. Monday-Wednesday I will be hosting After Hours with The Option Addict. This will not be another crash course in auction theory. Instead we will be dissecting and analyzing current market action through the lens of an auction. We will establish actionable price levels and have general Q&A.

Finally, if you are even considering trading futures, I implore you to open an account with Stage Five Trading. They are the only futures brokerage I know of who succeeds in creating a learning environment for their traders. Their rates are competitive and they have some nifty tools for helping you sharpen your edge.

This ought to be an interesting week. And I look forward to another week of seeing how my predictions pan out, live discussion of market action, and of course banking coin.

Pushed To The Limit

194 views

This week tested my skill set from start to finish. The intricate character shift post ECB was simple to recognize and push some risk on. But after weeks where the Nasdaq was ripping loose, this week ending action felt like slow motion.

The slow play actually requires a significantly higher amount of discipline and patience. Restraining myself paid, but I feel mentally depleted. Without an absolute vascular educing pump, I may wind up a hermit crab over the weekend.

THE ONLY WORK IS IRON WORK

I ferried out of FB, scaled TWTR on HOD like a bawse, closed out a 10 bagger in TQQQ (gracias PPT, all hail), bought the blood over at VA, and added to my HABT slow play. Oil continues to bleed me, via the UWTI, a bastard of an instrument who charges a harsh carry for the house.

It was a good week.  Here’s some emotional music to enjoy:

 

Feels Different Today

213 views

Yesterday afternoon we started to see a behavioral shift from the marketplace. The Nasdaq slowed down and flagged about, much like it did last Friday. The violent waves as we explored the southern tip of the charts opened up to a peaceful, calm, quiet pond. Whether this behavior sticks is unknown but the change has so far carried over into Globex. Overnight the Nasdaq traded on the low end of its normal range on normal volume. Prices drifted above yesterday’s cash highs briefly before finding responsive sellers.

Last night the biggest post-earnings price action was seen in SBUX which traded higher after reporting. At 8:30am we had Chicago Fed Activity and it brought some selling in. At 9:45am we have Markit PMI stats set for release. This announcement shortly after the open may induce some early chop. We also have Existing Home Sales and leading indicators at 10am.

Yesterday was the third straight day of advance in the Nasdaq and price action tends to become a bit rocky on the fourth session. However, bulls have done well to negate the intermediate term seller control, pushing us back into a more neutral-to-bullish stance. We are currently trading in the upper pocket of our triple volume distribution, see below:

01232015_NQ_VPnaked

Drilling a bit closer to the action, we can see prices are coming into the lower end of a large balance area above. It makes sense to expect some overhead supply in this region. Given the pocket-nature of our current trade location, we might still see some speed in the market.

Early on, I am expecting a choppy open auction, inside Thursday’s range before buyers make an attempt at the overnight high 4275.25. Not far above there I will be looking for signs of responsive sellers who work us back below Thursday’s close 4266 and choppy-two way action takes hold.

Hypo two is sellers a bit more aggressive on the open, pushing us over the ledge at 4258.25 and sliding us down through most of the afternoon push higher to test it’s starting point down at 4235.

Hypo 3 is strong bulls push up through 4277.75 and begin exploring the upper balance zone.

These levels can be seen below:

NQ_MarketProfile_01232015 01232015_NQ_VP

Oil Peek: Looking Weak

70 views

These lows become weaker with each test. Might see those algo stop run levels come into play soon, see below:
QM_VP012352015

The Ultimate Fun Gu La

156 views

Today our good friends in Europe delivered the latest batch of pure, refined, crack. Over the next several months, tens of thousands of drone-crafts will fall from the sky, saddled with big bags of white powder.

They will land in corporate parking lots—elementary school playgrounds, and god willing one will crash right upon my skull—splitting me clean in half and exploding my body into an orgy of kittens and money like a capsule from Sonic The Hedgehog.

But let’s move beyond the Central Bank cartel.   You want to make money as do I. Where is the next setup?

You come here demanding setups, and that’s okay.

I can give you setups. It’s a necessary part of financial blogging. I am sticking with what works. The next major opportunity according to fungula logic is SOLAR.

The chart, it’s so ugly, so bearish—like AMZN. It is safe to say the TAN chart qualifies for some CMT bearish pattern recognition.

This is why it entices me to buy it, especially if it legs lower to set a lovely trap.

Listen, I missed VA because I have become deeply convinced that fading is the only way to enter these markets. When it was only up 1.5% this morning, it was already “chasing” for me. I am sick, but its working. Today the spider caught a few flies over at TWTR.

There will be more. I have gone on too long. Look to buy weakness in solar and let’s hope the markets don’t turn into a geriatric center now that more QE is here.

The Game Is Set To High Speed

219 views

Due to the heightened volatility surrounding this open, I will not be offering any hypos. Here are my levels and if I make any major adjustments today, you will know it:

NQ_MarketProfile_01222015

Unchecked Aggression in Oil

92 views

The sellers continue their aggressive campaign at $49.10, the micro composite VPOC. Buyers are in the passenger seat until they can claim this level:

QM_VP012252015

Tape Speed Gone-Zo

92 views

Right before our eyes, the market behavior is changing. Perhaps it is the New York blizzard. Or maybe it’s Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, or all the heavy hitters reporting this week, or last week’s stimulus package. That’s just the thing, canoodling up to a reason, a ‘why’ if you will, provides comfort and security.

I say to hell with feeling comfortable. I would just as soon trade my clothes for burlap then be in a state of complacent comfort. The modern world is no place for the smiling sloth. Nature still favors the paranoid squirrel, and rewards him with a fluffier tail and sharper eyes.

VA is down a quick 5% on me. This is why you cannot chase VA. This is also why I ease into VA, several times, slowly.

Energy as a sector is looking good today. As an oil, it looks like a bear, grr.

It has been a good day for Elon Musk. His index [TSLA and SCTY] are up nicely to start the week. His autos were the most impressive feature of the Detroit Auto Show, as were his models, brilliant. The NSX was a close second.

The market is trying to roll over but not doing a good job of it. This afternoon I going live on the mic to MC this action and find some money extraction points. See you in the Afterhours.

Interesting Overnight Action To Start The Week

121 views

Buyers are showing some aggression as we approach cash open in the Nasdaq. The session started off weak Sunday evening with some attributing the move to the outcome of the Greek elections. The move lower around 6pm Sunday took place on light volume and buyers defended the upper edge of value formed Thursday afternoon. Once the globex auction turned around it spent the rest of the session slowly churning higher.

This week’s economic calendar starts off slow and builds in complexity. We have tons of earnings out and a heavy calendar of economic stats. Today we have Dallas Fed at 10:30am and Microsoft reporting after the bell.

Taking to the charts, we can see the Nasdaq went on a four day unidirectional streak to the upside, with Friday’s profile forming a balance on top of the range.  Typically after three days of trade in one direction we start to see price action become more two-way. After four days it becomes even more likely.

Price has so far managed to push up to the upper third distribution of volume. The current micro composite structure as we form this big range has three distinct areas of value with air pockets in between. These air pockets zones are where we see the dramatic, discovery-type moves take place. We could see downside action gain speed, given our current location. See below:

01262015_NQ_VP

So far sellers are defending the upper region of value. Whether they can continue doing so will be my primary focus this morning. My primary expectation this morning is for a choppy, two way auction on the open with sellers a bit more aggressive. They work to fill the overnight gap to 4268 and test the lower end of Friday’s value 4255-4253.75 where we see responsive buyers. These buyers than work up toward the MCHVN at 4285.25 and potentially test above Friday’s high to tag the HVN at 4293.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers active, perhaps not allowing the overnight gap fill to 4268 before making a move to take out Friday’s high 4286.50 and testing up to 4300 where we find responsive sellers and balance out.

Hypo 3 is sellers extend below 4254 and work down through the air pocket to target the overnight low 4231.50 and the naked VPOC below it at 4226.50. I have highlighted my key market profile levels below:

NQ_MarketProfile_01262015

Oil Is Still Heading Lower

55 views

 

 

Here’s the look heading into the open.  Stops are being run, lets see how much speed they bring into the tape:QM_VP012262015

 

These Are All Important Matters

151 views

First and foremost, the eleventh issue of the Weekly Strategy Session has been sent out to subscribers. May you find it of value. As strategy sessions readers know, we have a running counter which tracks the contextual bias calls made each Sunday. After ten predictions, here is where we stand:

01252015_BiasBook_counterSo far, if you toss out the Time Stop weeks the data is not showing an edge anywhere but the Dow Jones. In the Dow Jones predictions have been 70% correct. Any stat head will quickly dismiss this data set, as do I. There’s a general consensus that 50 samples are the minimum before an observation can be judged as significant. But my hand is on fire in the Dow. I don’t even trade the Dow, nor am I patting myself on the back. Only suggesting that over the course of the past 10 weeks we have seen a healthier auction occurring in the Dow.

Next, as some of you may know, Option Addict is handing me the keys to the After Hours session to start the week. Monday-Wednesday I will be hosting After Hours with The Option Addict. This will not be another crash course in auction theory. Instead we will be dissecting and analyzing current market action through the lens of an auction. We will establish actionable price levels and have general Q&A.

Finally, if you are even considering trading futures, I implore you to open an account with Stage Five Trading. They are the only futures brokerage I know of who succeeds in creating a learning environment for their traders. Their rates are competitive and they have some nifty tools for helping you sharpen your edge.

This ought to be an interesting week. And I look forward to another week of seeing how my predictions pan out, live discussion of market action, and of course banking coin.

Pushed To The Limit

194 views

This week tested my skill set from start to finish. The intricate character shift post ECB was simple to recognize and push some risk on. But after weeks where the Nasdaq was ripping loose, this week ending action felt like slow motion.

The slow play actually requires a significantly higher amount of discipline and patience. Restraining myself paid, but I feel mentally depleted. Without an absolute vascular educing pump, I may wind up a hermit crab over the weekend.

THE ONLY WORK IS IRON WORK

I ferried out of FB, scaled TWTR on HOD like a bawse, closed out a 10 bagger in TQQQ (gracias PPT, all hail), bought the blood over at VA, and added to my HABT slow play. Oil continues to bleed me, via the UWTI, a bastard of an instrument who charges a harsh carry for the house.

It was a good week.  Here’s some emotional music to enjoy:

 

Feels Different Today

213 views

Yesterday afternoon we started to see a behavioral shift from the marketplace. The Nasdaq slowed down and flagged about, much like it did last Friday. The violent waves as we explored the southern tip of the charts opened up to a peaceful, calm, quiet pond. Whether this behavior sticks is unknown but the change has so far carried over into Globex. Overnight the Nasdaq traded on the low end of its normal range on normal volume. Prices drifted above yesterday’s cash highs briefly before finding responsive sellers.

Last night the biggest post-earnings price action was seen in SBUX which traded higher after reporting. At 8:30am we had Chicago Fed Activity and it brought some selling in. At 9:45am we have Markit PMI stats set for release. This announcement shortly after the open may induce some early chop. We also have Existing Home Sales and leading indicators at 10am.

Yesterday was the third straight day of advance in the Nasdaq and price action tends to become a bit rocky on the fourth session. However, bulls have done well to negate the intermediate term seller control, pushing us back into a more neutral-to-bullish stance. We are currently trading in the upper pocket of our triple volume distribution, see below:

01232015_NQ_VPnaked

Drilling a bit closer to the action, we can see prices are coming into the lower end of a large balance area above. It makes sense to expect some overhead supply in this region. Given the pocket-nature of our current trade location, we might still see some speed in the market.

Early on, I am expecting a choppy open auction, inside Thursday’s range before buyers make an attempt at the overnight high 4275.25. Not far above there I will be looking for signs of responsive sellers who work us back below Thursday’s close 4266 and choppy-two way action takes hold.

Hypo two is sellers a bit more aggressive on the open, pushing us over the ledge at 4258.25 and sliding us down through most of the afternoon push higher to test it’s starting point down at 4235.

Hypo 3 is strong bulls push up through 4277.75 and begin exploring the upper balance zone.

These levels can be seen below:

NQ_MarketProfile_01232015 01232015_NQ_VP

Oil Peek: Looking Weak

70 views

These lows become weaker with each test. Might see those algo stop run levels come into play soon, see below:
QM_VP012352015

The Ultimate Fun Gu La

156 views

Today our good friends in Europe delivered the latest batch of pure, refined, crack. Over the next several months, tens of thousands of drone-crafts will fall from the sky, saddled with big bags of white powder.

They will land in corporate parking lots—elementary school playgrounds, and god willing one will crash right upon my skull—splitting me clean in half and exploding my body into an orgy of kittens and money like a capsule from Sonic The Hedgehog.

But let’s move beyond the Central Bank cartel.   You want to make money as do I. Where is the next setup?

You come here demanding setups, and that’s okay.

I can give you setups. It’s a necessary part of financial blogging. I am sticking with what works. The next major opportunity according to fungula logic is SOLAR.

The chart, it’s so ugly, so bearish—like AMZN. It is safe to say the TAN chart qualifies for some CMT bearish pattern recognition.

This is why it entices me to buy it, especially if it legs lower to set a lovely trap.

Listen, I missed VA because I have become deeply convinced that fading is the only way to enter these markets. When it was only up 1.5% this morning, it was already “chasing” for me. I am sick, but its working. Today the spider caught a few flies over at TWTR.

There will be more. I have gone on too long. Look to buy weakness in solar and let’s hope the markets don’t turn into a geriatric center now that more QE is here.

The Game Is Set To High Speed

219 views

Due to the heightened volatility surrounding this open, I will not be offering any hypos. Here are my levels and if I make any major adjustments today, you will know it:

NQ_MarketProfile_01222015

Unchecked Aggression in Oil

92 views

The sellers continue their aggressive campaign at $49.10, the micro composite VPOC. Buyers are in the passenger seat until they can claim this level:

QM_VP012252015