Thursday, November 26, 2015
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,139 Blog Posts

I’m Grateful

Marshawn Lynch

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.  I was fortunate to host my family for a dinner party this evening.  I personally called and ordered pizza.  I am thankful for the food choices I have here in the United Steaks.  At the spark of impulse I can have anything from vegan dairy to 1/2 pound hammed burgers.

You guys mean a great deal to me.  This is a solid learning environment.  There are some more advanced, some less, and we collaborate to dominate the stock market.  The internet made this possible, along with vision of Le Fly, Ragin Cajun, and the rest of the iBankCoin founding fathers.  This is us, we look good:


This is the best holiday.  I hope you enjoy yours with family and/or friends.  Remember, friends are the family you choose.  This is my 30th Thanksgiving.  You start to notice how transitory beauty is come 30, I am thankful for this.

Tomorrow nearly 50 Italians will pack into a basement to eat 3 turkeys and trays of cannelloni in a tradition nearly as old as me.  What a blessing.

Thanks for reading along, contributing, and trading alongside me.  I have a huge appetite.  I wake up hungry every morning, hungry for gains.  Let’s keep at it.

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$TINY Purchase


There is an element of chase to the small caps this week.  When not much movement is happening, that which does move easily gathers attention.  It is like being at a dud of a venue, full of bearded men, when suddenly a bus drops off 30 rambunctious coeds from the nearby university.  Well, for now, my newest position is land of the duds–I bought some TINY shares.

I have watched this stock for months, oddly enough, eagerly waiting for some volume to come in.  Well, the party is not starting.  And it may never transpire.  But if it does, I will be here, shrink ray in tote, ready to ride the wave of the future in nano computing.

Something about binary being expanded from 0 and 1, to 0,1, or both 0 and 1 simultaneously.  That’s the game TINY is playing.  Supposedly it is a really big deal, like bigger than the latest biotech breakthrough.

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Busy Day Ahead

Terminator Salvation: The Future Begins

NASDAQ futures are priced to gap up after a Globex session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before pressing up above the Tuesday high.  We managed to print a weak/double high at 4684.50, which was the overnight high yesterday morning also.  There are a ton of economic events scheduled today.  We already heard MBA Mortgage Applications at 7am.  We also had a data dump at 8:30am which included Personal Consumption Expenditure, Durable Goods, and Initial/Continuing Claims.  The initial reaction is slight selling.

We also have House Price Index at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, both New Homes Sales and the final U of M Confidence read for November at 10am.  Energy traders will also be watching the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price opened gap down on news a Russian jet was downed by Turkish forces.  After some early buying, a strong wave of liquidation pushed in.  Buyers defended the conviction/trend day printed last Wednesday and the strong buying wave carried price up to close the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4665.50.  Just below at 4664.75 look for responsive buyers who work to take out the weak overnight high at 4684.50.  Look for responsive selling at 4689.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, take out overnight high 4684.50 early.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4694.50 then two way trade ensues, with sellers slowly working the gap fill down to 4665.50.

Hypo 3 sellers accelerate down through the open gap 4665.50 and set their sights on overnight low 4659.50.  Look for a responsive buyer down near 4648 and two way trade ensues.



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Preparing To Feast


Today the market offered all the dog traders giblets.  It was just a little treat for their loyalty, for sticking around during the prep work.

Today printed a neutral extreme up.  When that rip wave came through before lunch I suspected we may print a close in the upper quadrant.  Well, we did, and because of it I added some longs into the bell.

Sure, 10:30am was a better buy point but you know what?  Hindsight is 20/20…The Pelicans were buying at 10:30am.  Hang out with them if you want better entries.

All the preparations have been made.  The dogs ate the giblets.  Tomorrow we put the turkey in the oven, Thursday we veg out on tryptophan, and Friday we take whack the market onto a fresh trajectory.

PS – Rose Colored Sunglasses logged a much needed victory today.

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Tier One Flow


I know you guys just want to read about the latest KBIO bump, but I must share this beauty of a trade that just set up.

Ever since we went neutral this afternoon I have wanted a spot to go short.  When we came into the first level I could work (4677) there was no order flow to lean on.


Then, just in the final throws of the move, a huge order block showed up, was slammed into, and held like a champ.  The rest, as they say, is history, aka 18 handles off the highs.

Thin holiday markets rule:

NQZ5_screenshot_20151124_191338_863Focus, fire gun.  All we need is somebody to lean on.

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Crime Scene Cleared


Heading into today, the primary objective was checking back to the price level where participants originally reacted to the Russian plane crash news.  This is one of the fundamentals of futures trading; expect the market to revisit news driven moves.

The NASDAQ lacked market profile structural support where it bounced.  Instead it was buyers asserting themselves and defending the trend day (or conviction day as OA calls it).  The FANG dominated NASDAQ was also divergent from the other indices, and when it bounced it ran hard.

After that happened, the next logical task was going back to 4670.

We are in a neutral print now.  The question is will it end with a standard neutral close near the mid, or will we close neutral EXTREME?

Either way, keep an eye on which areas of the market hold strong.  So far its been small caps.

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Caught in The Jet Wash


NASDAQ futures are priced to gap down heading into Tuesday after news the Turks shot down a Russian jet during air combat.  The initial reaction to this news occurred around 3:30am eastern time.  Range on the globex session is elevated as is volume.  Price managed to push down into the slippery single prints left behind last Wednesday before finding buyers.  At 8:30am GDP data came out in-line with expectations while Personal Consumption was a bit lower.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller composite-20 at 9am and more importantly Consumer Confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed an efficient normal variation down day.  It was effiecient because it managed to close two open gaps.  First it traded higher to close the 4702.50 gap from 11/6 then it formed excess high and pushed down to close the gap left behind last Thursday at 4659.75.  The session ended with price trading below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and ‘check back’ to 4670, where the reaction to the jet fight happened.  Look for responsive sellers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday close) ahead of the 4676 gap who push to take out overnight low 4634.25.  Look for responsive buyers just below here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go down.  Take out overnight low 4634 early on and sustain trade below it to set up a liquidation down to 4607.

Hypo 3 buyers press the full gap fill up to 4676 then set their sights on overnight high 4684.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers take out overnight low 4634.25 early but stall and buyers step in to work back up to scene of crime 4670.




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The Interns Lost Control


Volume metrics told the story this morning.  Volume during the first 15 minutes of trade was less than half the 20-day median on the NASDAQ.  The market was in the hands of hungover novices and they were easily overrun by a supply glut.

This is still a holiday shortened week however, and I see no reason to high tail it to cash.  It looks like a real liquidation will not trigger unless price sustains south of 4646, see below:


Anyhow bias is short but I am not pressing.

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Nothing Fancy: Mid-morning Fire Sale


We quite possibly just saw the high of the session, but I am busy today.  I only had a small window of time to trade and fortunately we pressed into one of my morning levels while I was in attendance.

Nothing fancy here, just took about 7 handles out of the NASDAQ barter and exchange off a homework level:


My standards are high and my expectations are low.  That is this week’s theme.

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Holiday Mode in Effect


NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after a globex session featuring normal range and volume.  The action was balanced overall while price managed to exceed the high print from last Friday.  Today is a market holiday in Japan–their Thanksgiving.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and Exiting Home Sales at 10am.

The market trended higher last week and featured two trend days, Monday and Wednesday.  Last Friday we printed a rare normal day which featured no range extension.  The session did manage to print a weak, double initial balance low at 4673.50.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4675.75 and test down through the weak low at 4673.50.  Look for responsive buyers at 4667 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push up and take out overnight high 4697.50 and work to take out close the open gap up at 4702.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4703 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4665 and target 4663.  Trade sustains below 4670 setting up a secondary leg down to 4653.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers close the gap up to 4702.50, sustain trade above 4702, setting up a potential run to test above the 11/5 session high 4726.50.



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