I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,924 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Methodically Trades Lower Overnight; Amazon Earnings on Deck

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Wednesday low, with selling stalling out just 1-tick ahead of the Tuesday close before buyers stepped in and balanced price out.  At 7am the Bank of England left their benchmark interest rate unchanged.

At 8:30am we will hear the Initial/Continuing jobless claims data, however investors are likely more keen to hear Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payroll data.

Amazon is also set to report earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up sellers worked into the morning tape, pressing us down to Monday’s close 5123.75 and filling that gap.  Buyers were just 1 tick below and began working price higher.  They did not manage to work us into a neutral print, but did regain much of the intra-day selling by the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5119.50 and continue lower, down to 5110.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5147.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5153.25.  Look for sellers up at 5153.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press the weekly gap fill up to 5162 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


Comments »

Here’s A Really Quick Look Back At The Sunday Strategy Session

Every Sunday I interpret the algorithms inside Exodus and update several data into my working index model.  The output from these operations allows me to form an objective thesis for the upcoming week.  It’s called the Executive Summary, and it is featured at the top of every week’s report for quick access–by you executive types.

It has changed my ability to make money dramatically.  Hopefully it helps you too.  This week’s thesis has been bang on so far:


Now I may just be a simple country man, but I know when we’re finger licked.  I’m not some American magician whose mystic powers allow for clairvoyance, nor do I parade myself around in an eagle mask making bold calls.

However, these actionable predictions are based on 100s of samples—samples taken live and walked forward—all with the expressed intent of banking coin better than most, at a steady and industrious clip.

After all, this is a marathon and I’m just getting started.  And boy am I patient. Like a crocodile.

If you’re a member of Exodus and not reading the Executive Summary inside Strategy Session every Sunday, you’re doing yourself a disservice.

The good folks at iBankCoin labs are all over this week’s action and expect higher prices into week’s end.


Comments »

New Month New Fund Flows: NASDAQ Higher Heading into February, FOMC Rate Decision on Deck

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, pressing up through Monday’s high and sustaining the gains as we approach cash open.  Buoying the NASDAQ were strong earnings out of Apple Tuesday evening.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out worst than last week.  At 8:15am ADP employment data was much better than expected—likely also supporting higher prices.

Also on the economic docket today we have both ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly an FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm.

Facebook is set to report earnings after-market-close and packs enough market cap to move the NASDAQ.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The market opened gap down, inside Monday range and sellers were active early on, pressing lower for much of the morning.  Buyers then stepped in, and continued working into the market to completely reverse the selling and make a new daily high.  Prices spiked near end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a quick poke up to 5150.  Sellers show up here and we tread water until the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 2 short squeeze up to the weekly gap at 5162 before we base out ahead of FOMC.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5119.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5114.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC.

Use third reaction post FOMC to determine market direction into the close, and into the end of week.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


Comments »

#TheFinalYolo Eliminated: Apple Shares Explode Higher, Completely Bankrupting Degenerate Canadian Trader

A bit of context.  There is a Canadian guy who inherited $2.5 million dollars from an uncle and took to trading it on the internet in an unabashed, ultra-violent manner, mostly via low-probability options bets, literally wearing a fucking wolf mask whilst doing it.

As you can imagine, his account slowly dwindled away.  Then, he made his last stand—a final trade of sorts—do or die via some Apple puts into the Tuesday earnings announcement.

His twitter handle is @FSComeau and the hashtag of reference is #thefinalyolo.

There is a long reddit with his backstory, but the link does not seem to be working.  Here are some screenshots of the details I’ve deemed pertinent:

wallstbetts1 wallstbetts2

I’m not going to pile onto this guy.  He probably feels pretty shitty right now.  Shares of Apple are ripping tits after hours and even if the move reverses, he bought puts and as anyone whose ever gambled on earnings with options knows, the premium tanks after earnings even if you call the direction properly.  Like you need some seriously massive move to happen for those stupid options to make money.

So we shall assume #thefinalyolo was a bust, RIP @FSComeau.

But I want to to burn one of his sentences into your brain:

“I’d rather take my chance to get my money back.”

If you ever hear your internal dialog blurb out that nonsense, chain yourself in the cellar for the next 3-6 months until your sanity returns.  Preferably in a straight jacket so you can’t hurt yourself.

It’s not your money to get back, you lost it. You’re playing with a toxic mentality.  Any gambler, speculator, will tell you this.  Calling the market “rigged” is bonus insanity points.

Shares of $AAPL traded as high as $125.27 after hours after the company reports Q1 EPS $3.36 vs $3.22 Est., Sales $78.4B vs $77.38B Est.



Comments »

Month-End NASDAQ Round Up

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked higher, briefly, overnight before beginning to work lower in a balanced, methodical manner.  As we approach cash open, price appears to be in balance and is trading just below the Monday midpoint.  At 8:30am the Employment Cost Index data was below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller Comopsite-20 at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, $20B worth of 52-week T-bills being auctioned by the US Treasury at 11:30am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Apple is set to report earnings after-market-close, and is likely to jostle NASDAQ futures prices.

Don’t forget we have an FOMC rate decision lingering on the horizon, set for release Wednesday afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a rare normal day.  Sellers were active and aggressive for the first hour of trade, driving price lower.  However, their campaign ended just as soon as it began, and the higher time frame stepped aside which led to prices slowly drifting higher.  It is worth noting, however, that there were active and aggressive sellers early on, so aggressive, we printed an abnormally wide initial balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5123.75.  Price continues higher, up through overnight high 5126.75.  Look for sellers to defend their newly claimed territory, ahead of 5130 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press off the open, down through overnight low 5106.75 and continue lower to probe the Monday low 5094.50.  Look for buyers just below at 5092.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5130 to trigger a pole climb up to 5148.50 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


Comments »

Ford Gets All Political and Decides To Oppose Trump’s Refugee Ban

Heaven forbid we scrutinize arrivals from barbaric countries like Syria for one quarter.  The horror of spending a few hours in the airport answering questions.  The tragedy of modifying your life itinerary temporarily.  It’s all too much to bear for Ford Motor Company.  The company’s CEO Mark Fields and chairman of family nobility Bill Ford had to issue a statement opposing the President’s executive order.

They had to.  They could not just run their business and focus on building cars and selling them to car dealerships.  Nope, they had to venture into politics.

Their insolence towards our authoritarian leadership puts them at the front of the line for swift punishment.

Perhaps Fords is bitter for being totally screwed by the federal government during the Great Recession—and event they came into so well prepared they could have been the only surviving American auto maker.  Maybe that’s why they’re picking Trumps pretty chill, temporary block of immigrants from terrorist infested nations like Libya, as their chance to stand against the asshats occupying Washington.

Whatever their motives, it was a mistake.

Ford shares [ticker: $F] have been downgraded from their neutral position, the one earned after an entirely uninspiring 4th quarter performance, to BEARISH.

Just like the Detroit Lions, Fords will lose in a most pathetic manner—when it matters most—with a sub par, distracted, effort.

Sad, really…they really could have been something.

Ford motor company is more interested in playing politics than operating their auto manufacturing business.  By condemning the very temporary immigration ban they will find themselves once again on the wrong side of history, just like when Henry Ford supported the Nazis and Hitler in World War II.

At least they’re consistently wrong.



Comments »

YOU’RE FIRED: Tempur Sealy Loses Major Contract with Mattress Firm Holdings, Shares Plummet

Losing a major customer is bad for business.  In the world of bedding, good contracts are hard to come by.  So when Tempur Sealy made the surprise announcement Monday morning that Mattress Firm has terminated ALL contracts with the Kentucky bed maker, all hell broke loose.  Shares of $TPX were off by -30% premarket.

According to the newswire, Mattress Firm Holdings was demanding considerable changes to their agreement, including significant concessions. 

An accord could not be reached.  A formal termination of the contract was delivered to Temper on Friday, January 27th.

The news sent analysts into action, doing their part to add insult to injury.  Stifel, Raymond James, SunTrust, Nomura, and PiperJaffray all downgraded Temper Monday morning.

Bedding is a tough business where the core objective is to occupy as much showroom space as possible, thus improving the likelihood that a consumer will choose your product.  Losing a major contract means way less floor space.  Mattress Firm is the biggest bedding retailer in the United States by far.

Meanwhile, companies like Tuft & Needle are offering a comparable product at significantly lower prices, using an online format—effectively challenging Temper in what is essentially a commoditized space—and operating in a manner that is far less reliant upon contracts with brick-and-mortar retailers.

Shares of $TPX are trading at levels unseen since November 2013, effectively wiping out more than three years of capital appreciation in one fell swoop.


Comments »

NASDAQ Comes into The First Important Week of 2017 Gap Down

NASDAQ futures are gap down heading into Monday trade after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower on a balanced session, with most of the downward action coming in the form of a globex gap when trade was opened at 6pm Sunday evening.  A bit more selling came in just after 8:30am, just after the Personal Consumption Expenditure data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, and at 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off both 3- and 6-month T-bills, $34 and and $28 billion dollar’s worth respectively.

There are key earnings out this week from NASDAQ-moving companies including Apple Tuesday after-market-close (AMC), Facebook Wednesday AMC, and Amazon Thursday AMC.

There is and FOMC rate decision Wednesday, and Non-farm Payroll Friday.  This is a busy week.

Last week price worked higher across all major US indices.  We had a down Monday that caught a responsive bid and worked higher by midday.  This set up a trend day Tuesday, and then a big gap up Wednesday.  We spent the rest of the week marking time.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:


On Friday the NASDASQ printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up and briefly trading to a new high, price worked lower in the morning, 1-ticked the initial balance low just after 10:30am then resolved the week with side-ways action, ramping higher near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press off the open, trading down through overnight low 5140.25 to test 5131.75.  Buyers show up here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5162.  While doing so they take out overnight high 5160.50.  Look for sellers right around 5162 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers sustain trade below 5130 setting up a test below the Wednesday low 5123.50.  Look for buyers down at 5110.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5161.25 setting up a test of current swing high 5167.50.  Stretch target is 5193.75.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


Comments »

Model Engaged: Stays Bullish Through Month-End, into FOMC Rate Decision

A full month of bullishness is set to reach a crescendo of sorts, come Wednesday, when we embark on the second month of trade under our new political regime.

It also comes with a Fed rate decision.  Consensus down at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is for no change in rates (96% probability).  However, and with the stroke of her pen, the venerable Janet Yellen, backroom leader of the free world, could send a chill down the collective spine of investors by unexpectedly raising rates.

This would be bad because, for more than a year now the Fed has been boringly predictable.  That’s a good thing, in case you’re wondering.  It would be a shame to destroy all the goodwill they have built.  According to the “Dot Plot” chart, we only need to nudge a touch higher from our current benchmark rate to be in the happy blue zone:


The NASDAQ, according to ticker symbol $QQQ is up about 6% in the month of January.  How does that compare to other January performances?  Best since 2012.


Remember 2012?  2012 was really bullish, man.

So let the common man scuffle in the streets, complaining about this or that, wasting their time in a feeble attempt to share their two-cents on the current state of affairs.  Your time and money can be better used foxing around, capitalizing on all the otherwise neglected opportunity.

This week’s model scores support remaining in the bullish labor camp.  Laboring away, with dollars allocated to three and four letter acronyms.

Exodus members: the 116th Edition of Strategy Session is live.  Go check it out for more details on what we expect from the upcoming week.



Comments »

Cruising: NASDAQ Futures Come into Friday on Top of The World

NASDAQ future are heading into Friday trade gap up after an overnight session feauting normal range and volume.  Price chopped around overnight, briefly trading below the Thursday cash low before traversing the entire range early this morning—mostly after 6am.  At 8:30am GDP and Durable Goods orders data were both below expectations.

Also on the economic docket we have the final January reading of U of Michigan Confidence at 10am and the rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price chopped sideways, mostly, after extending all-time highs.  At the end of the day sellers spiked onto the tape.

Heading into Friday my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5146.75.  Buyers defend around these prices and we work higher, up through overnight high 5160.75 and probe above the Thursday high 5163.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap and go, take out overnight high 5160.75 early on and sustain trade above Thursday high 5163.25 setting up a week-ending rally.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 5146.75 then take out overnight low 5139.25 setting up a move to target 5131.75 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


Comments »