iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,104 Blog Posts

iBankCoin Labs Issues Bearish Outlook Heading into August

Greetings and hello lads,

The kind and consistent scientists at iBankCoin laboratory have spent the morning parsing stock market data and reviewing the events that transpired last week.  And after running our findings through the algorithms inside Exodus, a bearish signal was generated. This is the second consecutive bearish bias we have had.

You may think it is unwise to lean bearish heading into a new month.  However, we will press onward with the conviction our quantitative model offers.  Part of the reason we built this model—aside from creating a cold and dead way of forming a bias—was to show you, the people, that building your own model is one of the best ways to have confidence in your trades.

You grab the data, you run the statistics, you own the research and your trades.  This is much better than relying on someone else.  Because when the action is fast, your seat will start to boil while you wait for someone else to make decisions for you.

It is like packing your own parachute before you sky and dive.

Last week the selling did not surface until lunchtime Thursday.  This week, we expect sellers to surface early and often.  Ideally, the week begins with a gap up.  That will give us something to target.  If we gap up and sellers fail to close it, that will tell us something also.

When you focus on the auction, there is always a story being told.  And it much better to base your decisions on the narrations of price action than 94% of news.  Be selfish about the inputs you allow into your brain when you work.

With conviction and grace will shall press our bearish bias into the month of August. Right into the teeth of monthly fund flows.  Until further notice, iBankCoin labs is issuing a second week of bearish bias.  Should an event occur to change our opinion, it will be made known.

Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 142nd Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

Detroiters, Canadians, people vacationing in the Great Lakes area next week, come to Detroit Thursday from 5-7pm for my free investors conference.  RSVP here: click here

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Another Morning Loaded With Amazing Earnings; NASDAQ at Record Highs

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday at record highs after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher overnight, sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly.  Durable Goods and Advance Goods Trade Balance data came out at 8:30am and both were huge bullish beats.

Then came the earnings.  Here’s this morning’s big winners:

Comcast Reports Q2 EPS $0.52 vs $0.48 Est., Sales $21.165B vs $20.86B Est.
Mastercard Reports Q2 EPS $1.10 vs $1.04 Est., Sales $3.1B vs $2.97B Est.
UPS Reports Q2 EPS $1.58 vs $1.47 Est., Sales $15.75B vs $15.5B Est.
Celgene Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.82 vs $1.78 Est., Sales $3.27B vs $3.23B Est.
P&G Reports Q4 Core EPS $0.85 vs $0.78 Est., Sales $16.1B vs $16.02B Est.
Twitter Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est., Sales $573.9M vs $536.5M Est.
Dow Chemical Reports Q2 Operating EPS $1.08 vs $1 Est., Sales $13.8B vs $13.61B Est.
Southwest Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.24 vs $1.20 Est., Sales $5.7B vs $5.72B Est.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed nominee Quarles confirmation hearing at the Senate banking committee at 10am, then a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap up, sellers stalled ahead of record highs instead going range extension down.  Sellers, however, could not close the overnight gap.  Then the Fed left their key borrowing rate unchanged at 2pm.  Third reaction off the announcement was a sell, but buyers ultimately took the day back to the highs. Then, after hours, several strong earnings reports pressed the NASDAQ even higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and press down to 5974.  Buyers step in here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5948.75 then take out overnight low 5947.25 setting up a move to target 5936.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5993.50 and tag 6002 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 6002 triggering a rally/trend higher.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Model Was Bearish Last Sunday; Model Still Bearish Wednesday Night

Coming into the week bearish has inspired several of the townsfolk who cavort around iBankCoin and FIN-Twitter to throw cabbage and tomatoes at my person.  Which is fine.  I imagine they do not fully understand the purpose of forming a directional bias heading into the trading week.

What I set out to do every Sunday is choose which side of the NASDAQ futures market to day trade during the week.  None of these trades are held overnight.  One trade that has proven effective during weeks with a short bias is playing for a break of *initial balance* low.

*initial balance is the first hour of trade.

Here’s how it works.  The first hour of trade sets a range–a high and a low.  Once I suspect the initial balance high is in, I find ways to initiate a short position on the NASDAQ.  One of my favorite trades is when we cross the *daily mid*.

*daily mid is the halfway point between the high and the low.  Rocket science, I know.

The trade worked Monday and Wednesday.

Will it work Thursday and Friday?  The statistic suggests there is a high probability at least one of those days will take out initial balance low first.

Where the IndexModel has proven ineffective is in deciding when to close out long-term positions or initiate a multi-day hedge.  However, if we trade a bit higher, I may be inclined to enter a position short into the weekend.  I want to see how the /NQ futures behave at 5974.  If sellers step in, I shall likely join.

In terms of earnings, goodness.  The big players are crushing expectations.  Look at just this afternoon’s batch of winners:

PayPal Reports Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.46 vs $0.43 Est., Sales $3.136B vs $3.09B Est.
Facebook Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.32 vs $1.13 Est., Sales $9.321B vs $9.2B Est.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $2.56 vs $2.15 Est., Sales $7.141B vs $6.35B Est.
Las Vegas Sands Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.73 vs $0.59 Est., Sales $3.14B vs $3B Est.

So it is hard to be bearish beyond first few hours of the trading day.  Afternoons are for the boys.

The Exodus Strategy Session is for hardcore traders who work time-frames most of you should never even consider.  There is no dabbling with the futures markets.  If you can sit down without distraction and focus on order flow and the complications of your charts then yes, you can consider working these kind of trades.

In summary, the short bias generated is currently batting 2-for-3 and has two more at bats.

Trade accordingly.

Still on this page?  Great, than I will keep going.  We can talk about any of the concepts discussed above better at the first ever Detroit investors conference next Thursday, August 4th.  So RSVP.  It is free, and I am not putting you on a mailing list or selling you timeshares in the Bahamas.  There will be pizza.

 

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NASDAQ Back Up Near Record High Heading into Fed Rate Decision

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher early this morning while company-after-company issued earnings well beyond analyst expectations.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in below last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have the Fed Rate decision at 2pm.  There are several other low-impact events before the announcement including New Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gay down and push lower, but sellers were unable to take out the Monday low.  Instead the auction reversed higher and spent most of the day working upward.  Price was contained however inside of the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher off the open, up to 5967.50 before we pause ahead of the Fed decision.  Look for third reaction analysis after the announcement to give direction into the end-of-day.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5935 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5927.  Look for buyers around 5920 MCVPOC as we wait for Fed decision.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up through 5974 and sustain trade above it, causing the NASDAQ to trend higher up into the Fed decision.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Slightly Lower After Being Rattled By Google Earnings

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, holding inside Monday’s range.  Just after closing bell Monday, Google earnings erased much of the progress achieved by buyers late into Monday’s session.  At the core of the selling reaction was the $2.7 billion dollar anti-trust fine levied against the tech giant by the European Union.

At 9am today the House Price Index came out slightly below expectations.  Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began flat and buyers made a move up to the open gap from last Thursday (primary hypo).  Sellers then stepped in and pushed the market range extension down.  Then we traversed the entire daily range, pushing neutral, then to new all-time highs before ultimately falling back to the daily mid after Google.  Neutral print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to 5937.50 then stall.  We then take out overnight low 5920.75 setting up a move to target the naked VPOC at 5907.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, down through overnight low 5920.75 and work down to fill the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5842.75  and probe Monday’s high 5954.75 continuing higher to 5967.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ in The Center of Balance To Begin The Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Action was balanced overnight.  Price briefly exceeded the high set on Friday.

On the economic calendar today we have Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began strong with price action drifting higher through Wednesday before balancing out.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ formed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and choppy opening hour which ultimately gave way to afternoon buying.  Buyers were unable, however, to close the overnight gap by the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5922.75 and close the gap up at 5924.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5905 and work down to the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to new record highs, above 5935.50 and work up to 5953.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Trading Model Flips Bearish into Federal Reserve Week

Greetings lads,

For the the 141st consecutive Sunday, the research team at iBankCoin laboratory has parsed out and quantified all market generated information deemed relevant.  As the models were being updated several stars began to align.  There is a rhythm to data, and when we simply receive the raw inputs as humans without sullying them with our silly thumbs or emotions, occasionally a numeric ballet appears.

It is what many call an edge.

An edge has emerged Sunday.  The edge can be an uncomfortable place.  Like right now, making a bearish call heading into next week, you may think that would make the room feel a bit warmer.  But with data on our side, and with full acceptance that markets are strong and we may end up being wrong, it is with conviction and poise that we stand by our forecast.

All signs point to Wednesday.  Humped day has all sorts of quirks associated with it.  We have simplified these ‘quirks’ as much as possible in the Exodus Strategy Session, so that someone less versed in quantitative voodoo can understand it.

Then there is the wonderful reading today from the IndexModel: 3.33

3 is the center of the universe.  The first odd prime number, half of 6, multiplied by 33 to generate the only EMA that matters, 3 is everything.  And nothing.

We have an FOMC rate decision out Wednesday.  Traders over at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are pricing a 97.5% probability of no change to the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate.  If the Fed is going to continue behaving as brilliantly as it has since Janet Yellen took over, very boring and predictable, then no change will happen Wednesday.  What will happen, however, is a reaction to the announcement.  This reaction is everything we need to carry or pivot our bias into the second half of the week.

In short, we are bearish heading into next week.  How this plays out will make for interesting conversation on August 3rd when we meet in Detroit to discuss global domination.  Have you submitted your RSVP for the free Detroit investors conference yet?  You will not be granted access to our high society meeting unless you RSVP.  The doors will be locked to keep the unsettled populace out.  If your name does not clear over the intercom, I have instructed security to deploy a deterrent mist.  Should that not effectively clear your person from the entryway, and at my command only, knee-level flamethrowers will be ignited.

If you do not feel like creating a MeetUp account to RSVP, you must make your intentions known so our administrative assistant can manually add you to the list.

Model is bearish therefore the kind scientists at iBankCoin laboratory are issuing a Rose Colored Sunglasses alert for the week beginning July the 24th.

Behave accordingly.

Distinguished members of Exodus, the 141st Strategy Session is live.  Check out what is going on with the mother algorithm that is directing our attention to Wednesday.

 

 

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NASDAQ Comes into Balance After Impressive Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, holding onto Thursday’s range.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  A morning gap down was sold into, pressing briefly below the overnight low and into range extension down (hypo 3).  Then a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5924.50.  From there we continue higher, briefly poking above overnight high 5932.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 5895 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to the open gap at 5833.25 before two way trade ensues.

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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In Two Weeks Time RAUL Will Host A Free Investors Conference in Downtown Detroit

It’s official.  Forms have been signed.  Hands, shaken. A high-rise event space on Detroit’s iconic Woodward avenue has been secured for our first Detroit investors meetup.  Here are the details:

WHEN: Thursday, August 3rd from 5-7pm ET

WHERE: 1449 Woodward Ave, Detroit, MI 48226

WHO SHOULD ATTEND: Anyone who wants to talk about making money investing, trading, and hustling

PRICE TO ATTEND: Free, $0.00, zero dollars

How TO RSVP: click here

The event is open to the public, but you need to RSVP otherwise you will not be allowed into the building.  I will be talking my book to anyone who wants to listen.  If you are curious about auction theory, we can talk auction theory.  Want to know what parts of Detroit are quietly becoming artsy enclaves?  We can talk real estate.  If you want to talk about short-term trading and order flow, we can cover that too.  This is an open forum.

There will be a few investors among the attendees who are regularly looking for start-ups to invest in.  I am not going to tell you who they are, but if you have a real project with potential to make money, you may want to tighten up your elevator pitch and bring the idea with you.

Overall it seems like we are going to have some fun.  There will be free beer and pizza.  A working tap will dispense all the delicious municipal water you can drink.  Detroit truly has the best drinking water in the world.  There will also be boiling hot coffee to keep you sharp.  If for whatever reason you desire a sugar-laden soda, it will be at your discretion to smuggle it in.  The smoking of cannabis blunts will not be permitted at the conference.

Drop any questions you may have in the comments below, and I will address them despacito.

The Stocktwits Detroit investor MeetUp is being taken to the next level because it has to be done differently in Detroit.  It has to be grimy and accessible to all.  Like lets talk about picking through garbage and selling shit on Craigslist to fund a brokerage account.  The moneys out there, do you have the huevos to go get it?

 

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NASDAQ Makes New Record High Overnight, Here’s What To Watch Thursday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight in a slow manner.  Initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed at 8:30am.

Also on the docket today we have Leading Indicators at 10am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and after a small drive higher at the open we saw sellers unable to take out opening swing low.  Instead price turned higher and worked up to the measured move target area at 5921 before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5917.50.  Look for sellers to take out overnight low 5914.75.  Buyers are found down at 5904.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher off the open, up through overnight high 5936.75 and continue exploring higher prices.  Look for sellers around 5935.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5896.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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