iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,010 Blog Posts

Recovery: Wednesday Afternoon Sell-off Erased During Extended Trade

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, reversing the Wednesday afternoon selling but holding inside the Wednesday range.

On the economic calendar today we have Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am.  At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed data is out.  Other economic events include Leading Indicators at 10am, and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price opened pro gap up, saw an early rally that briefly went range extension up before reversing down through the entire range and giving back most of the gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5396.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5394 and close the open gap down at 5389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, up through overnight high 5418.25,  Buyers continue higher, up to 5424.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers rally up to 5432.25 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Kendrick Lamar Schools Don Chealde on Police Violence in New DNA Music Video

Loaded with the urban youth undertones of oppression and police brutality, sex-money-murder, the latest video by Kendrick Lamar is a blaster.

The conservative types do not like a hip hop artists like Kendrick, because his music resonates and inspires change, unlike the comedic ‘brag-swag’ which titillates capitalists while being relatively harmless to their aristocratic lifestyle.

DNA features Don Cheadle as an interrogator whose brain becomes hacked by Kendrick.  A tsunami of prose floods into Chealde’s mind, and he takes on Kendrick’s energy, which empowers him to not be a bitch-ass snitch.

DNA is the #1 trending video on YouTube right now.  The entire Kendrick album is already being called a classic.  DNA is the type of song that makes you want to build a successful business in the city before the soulless corporate goons turn your hood into another whitewashed strip mall, like Chicago.  As your urban liaison, I advise you to play this song at max volume for your family and neighbors to enjoy.

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Last Tuesday’s Conviction Selling Erased During Strong Overnight Trade

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher during the entire session, pressing up into the hard selling from last Tuesday and nearly erasing the losses.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications data came out worse than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap down was quickly bought up and buyers continued pushing higher, to a new weekly high before sellers came in and reversed the entire move, briefly pushing the market range extension down before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, working up to the naked VPOC at 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain the Tuesday range at 5405.25 but fail, ultimately leading to a move up to 5432.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 5389.50 then take out overnight low 5388.  Look for sellers down at 5383.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Commence The OPEX Grind; NASDAQ Loses Half of Monday’s Gains

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Monday high, briefly, during extended trading hours before a significant rotation lower pushed through.  The down move stalled around the Monday RTH midpoint. At 8:30am Housing Starts came in below expectation and Building Permits above expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Industrial/Manufacturing production at 9:15am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened the week gap up and buyers bought into it before we spent much of the day churning sideways.  Then, the afternoon featured a ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5394.50.  From here sellers step in and work lower, down through overnight low 5375.50.  Look for buyers down at 5374 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap and go lower, down through overnight low 5375.50 and continue lower, targeting the weekly gap down at 5358.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a gap fill up to 5394.50 the continue higher, up through overnight high 5403.75 triggering a rally up to 5430 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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U.S. Markets Have A Scary Look To Them Heading into OPEX

Greetings and Hoppy Easter!

Despite today being a Christian holy day, and Christians so far being the winning religion in the world, and Christians saying to spend today eating buttered lambs and candied hams, it is with honor and humility that the good folks at iBankCoin laboratory took some time to work inside the Exodus furnace rooms and generate a Strategy Session report.  And by the looks of these stock markets, it appears it is good we updated the models.

There is some sketchiness going on right now, just in time for post tax-day option expiration.

It seems so obvious that it may be a double head fake, but the two main sub-indices we monitor every Sunday have very stereotypical topping patterns in place, see below:

Pair that with the behavior of our broad indices as we wrapped up the holiday shortened week, and you have what looks like, visually, a sellers’ market.

Then there’s this 7-week long rotation into risk aversion sectors, which is difficult to show you, so instead view the 1-month performance of each sector, as demonstrated by the SPDR Select sector ETFs:

Then add in the fact that many investors, high on the hog after nearly a year of rallying, may have underestimated their tax liabilities, and you have a recipe for raising cash.

Another caveat, and the article escapes us, but about 8 days back an article was published saying market volatility may be gone forever.

LOLz

Wish it could be queued up, but after a cursory search of the interwebs and our cluttered desks, alas it must be taken as hearsay only.

There are some other small quirks, nothing major, but relevant nonetheless that are covered in the 127th Edition of Exodus Strategy Session—quirks which pertain to the algorithms inside the software.  Members, be sure to check it out!

As for the rest of you, rest up, for tomorrow the dark hand of volatility may resurrect itself from the cave.

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NASDAQ Heading into Maundy Thursday on Lows of Week

NASDAQ futures are heading into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down to a new low of week before stabilizing into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have the preliminary April read of Confidence from the U. of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and buyers could not fill the overnight gap.  Instead we worked lower, slowly, eventually closing on the low-of-the-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5372.50.  From here buyers continue higher, up through 5382 before stalling around 5395.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to close the gap at 5402.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5355.75 and push down to 5348 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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What Happened at United Airlines Is A Net Positive for Society

United airlines had to pull four paying customers off an airplane.  Was it dumb to let them board in the first place? Probably yes, as was busting a citizen’s jaw till he was leaking, as they say in urban centers.

There are people who think the old man should have just got off the plane.  Siding with the aggressors–whether airport police or gate goons–means you are insensitive or worse hateful.

LABELING!

Moving on…

The truth is life gets way harder then your flight plans being screwed over.  Some people are right on the edge when they travel.  If only there was an institution to blame…

We can agree most people are obsessed with what happened here, right?  It makes great viral news because travel stress is relatable.  So many things about traveling suck.  The lines, the smell, space allotted per human, dirty toilets, belligerent drunks and kids.  Relating to the struggle this man faced is so human of you.

But is what happened bad?  It depends on who you ask.  Airline jokes are the bread and butter of comedians.  Just thumb through your Instagram and  BEHOLD, JOKES:

Most of you probably have a group chat, yes?  Friends and such, YES YES!?  JOKES:

 

Go to your local comedy club this weekend.  You bet your ass there will be United Airline jokes.  The reckless behavior demonstrated by everyone on that plane is the type of fodder comedians hope for.

The quick thinkers at Southwest airlines actually tweaked their marketing, cashing in on a huge opportunity to target millennials.  MILLENNIALS, mind you, who love traveling more than owning possessions:

They say Cato ran his dead brother’s ashes through a sieve, looking for gold.  Perhaps there are some stoics on the branding team at $LUV, making delicious lemonade from their wounded brother’s ashes.

Are airport police going to suddenly increase their violence against flyers, nipping at their heels?  Corralling them like sheep? Doubtful.  There is/was little harm done to society by the event.

When you sum up the benefits (jokes, distraction from WW3, branding opportunity) and subtract out the consequences (bloodied jaw, bruised ego for the resist crowd) you see quite logically that the event was a success for humanity, overall.

In six months, the cell phone footage of a beta-male being preyed on by a team of alphas will cease to resonate in your mind.  There will be something new for you thumb suckers to be outraged about, or you will just be distracted by living your own life—an infinitely more rewarding task.

In the meantime, consider what sort of message you send by insulting and name calling the realists of the world.  It makes you the hater, bro.

So lets just leave people to their own mistakes, all of them.  Shaka

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NASDAQ Stable in Extended Trade After Busting Loose Tuesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications were better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap down, a brief move higher closed the gap before sellers stepped in and drove the market lower, testing down into 3/27 prices, making a new low for April before recovering much of the move throughout the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5402.75.  From here the continue higher, up through overnight high 5412.75.  Look for sellers just above at 5415.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5386.25.  Look for buyers down at 5374.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 5430.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Stuck Inside Post-Syrian Missile Attack Price Range

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Monday range overnight on balanced trade.

The economic calendar is extremely light today.  we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  Fed’s ‘crazy-eyes’ Kashkari is doing a Q&A in the afternoon but investors aren’t likely to pay attention.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened with a slight gap up, proved into the conviction selling after last Wednesday’s Fed minutes, found sellers, reversed down through the entire range, going neutral.  Then it held last Friday’s low before stabilizing into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down through overnight low 5411.25 setting up a move to tag the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5347 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5429.25 and tag the Monday VPOC at 5432.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger buyers press up to 5461.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Yellen Takes Extremely Vetted Live Questions from Twitter, Benign Conversation Ensues

Janet Yellen came to the University of Michigan on Monday afternoon to have a nice chat with Susan Collins, the Dean of Public Policy at the school of Public Policy and Economics.  The first half hour was spent giving everyone a lesson on the purpose of the Fed, a rather remedial economics lesson, but a pleasure to hear live from the leader of the free world.

The setting was pleasant, as the two ladies sipped miniature bottles of water whist discussing the Fed’s success in navigating the financial crisis, the confidence attained by Fed Stress Tests of major banks, and how transparent and independent the Fed is today.

Then came the questions, heavily vetted.

First question was about what perspective all her jobs gave her.  She mentioned she’s gained a knack for digesting ‘anecdotal information’ which sounded much like the proverbial ‘context’ that we all work so hard to form around our trading and investing.  This was quite an arousing thought, that Yellen considers what some may consider non-data, less-than-objective information in her decision process.

Question two, should Fed meddle in, and/or coordinate, international policy?  She smacked this question to the ground calling it likely illegal.  Yellen also mentioned she talks like seven times a year with the other central bankers.  They talk shop and how they’re thinking about nudging the economy.

Question two also asked if emerging markets were at a disadvantage, being left on their own to form policy.  While this was somewhat talked around, the answer had the feel of, “obviously yes.”

Third question, a dumb question, “What is the role of money in inflation?” After rolling her eyes, Fed Yellen entertained the question, but reminded the person that inflation is driven by expected inflation, and the vicious price spiral higher it can create.  She talked all about how they just watch the unemployment rate and said history has proven her right, that money doesn’t matter.

Question 4, from twitter, has the effect of QE been under estimated?

Hard to know what the effect was, according to Yellen.  And despte it being hard to know, she is claiming a victory, a favorable impact, not to be exaggerated by any means, but a success no doubt.

Note, none of the ‘Top’ questions associated with the #FordSchoolYellen hashtag were addressed:

Question 5, addresses low labor-force participation rates, should it adjust how they measure full employment?

Hard to know how much of the decline might reflect voluntary retirement verses searching for long time then dropping out.  Some might reflect weak economy.

Writer’s note: SOME!?

Since labor force participation has flattened out, while the population ages, suggests to Yellen that they have drawn people into the market who were otherwise discouraged in recent history.

Last question, total puffer, how has being careful about what you say changed your life?  Yellen, looking up at the gold leaf ceiling, recants that she’s been in the game for a long time—watching what she says.  She also reiterated that she knows monetary policy better than any other piker out there.

Finally, Susan Collins asked for any last words of wisdom from the leader of the free world.  Yellen said you all should find something to do that you love and are interested in [as a career].  Her love is economics, it gets her out of bed.  Bless.her.heart.  Second, the career is the whole path, not just the last seat you hold.  Yellen loves and has loved every day of the hustle, even through it’s been in a public service role.  She also mentioned working with people you respect. And working with an organization that you feel makes a contribution to society.

There you have it, Fed Chair Yellen came of Ann Arbor, home of the bi-monthly Confidence reading watched around the world.  She taught the nice folks a bit about how the Fed works, took some vetted questions, then imparted some wisdom on life as a career woman.  Her only concern, it seems, is that pesky ‘Audit the Fed’ bill floating around, and how it is likely to jeopardize the Fed’ ability to maintain its independence from politics and short-sighted actions.

And much more of the same from today’s Fed.  Meaning tons of transparency, and saying the same few things over, and over, and over again until the slow learners at Wall Street fully comprehend them.  Quite an effective approach.

For recordings of Yellen dropping the mic, walking off the stage, and the crowd going wild, check my snaps.  Username: vCali

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