iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,955 Blog Posts

Tesla Earnings Were Nearly Perfect: Here’s Why Shares Are Lower

Fourth quarter earnings for Tesla revealed several positive updates from the world’s most provocative technology company, yet shares are lower following the announcement.

What gives?

First, have a look at their financial performance:

Sales $2.28B vs $2.18B Estimate

Earnings per share $(0.78), Adjusted EPS $(0.69) vs $(0.43) Estimate

Solid top-line beat and a miss on earnings.  The company is ramping up production and is burning through money fast.  Investors understand that Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) is the absolute best steward of their capital, and that He, and only He, can save us from humanity’s belligerent destruction of planet earth.  Therefore a miss on earnings is not material and totally okay.

During the press conference, Elon (Praise and Glory) said the Model 3 program is still on track.  THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT.  The stakes are high on the Model 3, which is expected to reach mass market unlike the company’s Model X, S, and Roadster.

Little known Easter egg: once Model Y comes out, the company’s line of products will read, “S3XY”.  Like I said, provocative.

Musk (Praise) also aggressively countered the issue of the union rat planted in his Fremont, California plant by the UAW.  He needs to keep those blood suckers out of his company, and it looks like he intends to do so by awarding his employees stock compensation.  Jalopnik has more details on this matter.

2016 deliveries fell about 4000 units below expectations.  If you’re a jaded Business Insider writer, this was a significant miss and grounds for demolition of $TSLA shares, likely because BI writers don’t actually own Tesla shares.  Tesla produced 83,922 cars during 2016.  Not a small feat.  We are talking about infiltrating the most diabolical industry in the world, after all.

For the first half of 2017, Tesla is forecasting the delivery of 47-50k cars.  Wow.

Now this is why Tesla shares are lower after earnings:

Look folks, this isn’t rocket science.  Despite Our Leader (Glory to The Leader) understanding rocket science, his stock will behave in a fairly predicable manner until the end of 2017 when we have more visibility on the Model 3—until then the stock is range bound.

What most of you fail to understand is that stocks spend the majority of their time, around 70%, IN BALANCE, aka range.  Discovery only takes place AFTER a major shift occurs in information, requiring the market to discover new value.

I know this is all very boring for most of you, because it doesn’t trigger an emotion like your politics or your American football or fast moving stocks, but it is what it is.  If you want thrills, try crack cocaine on a roller coaster.

The fact that $TSLA has not come crashing down through range is a positive development.  True believers in Elon (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) should welcome more range trade, which allows us to continue accumulating shares.

In summary, the scientists and engineers at Tesla are doing everything proper to keep investors happy.  Q4 was solid, and those demonic UAW vermin are being sprayed with poison.

The lofty valuation for $TSLA shares remains.  This is, unequivocally…

BULLISH

 

 

 

 

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NASDAQ Higher: Slow and Steady

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a small gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up beyond all-time highs overnight and is sustaining the gains as we head into the open.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came in mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Purchase index at 9am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  An early move lower could not take out the Tuesday low and we began working higher, eventually extending to a new all-time high in a very mild manner.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5350.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5346.75. Look for buyers down around 5341 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 5358.25 and sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into open air.  No stretch targets available.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work the weekly gap fill down to 5325.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Opinion: Investors Are Majorly Underestimating How Live The Next Fed Meeting Is

After watching Yellen testify to congress last week, my listening comprehension skills led me to believe the March Fed meeting will be live, meaning I expect a rate hike.  However, investors down at the CME are only pricing a 17.7% chance of a lift when The Fed convenes March 15th:

What gives?  While equities showed little reaction to her testimony, bonds certainly behaved, albeit briefly, like a hike was coming.

The stock market is ripping to the upside in a grotesque and unobstructed manner, Detroit is actually transitioning into a functioning city (single tear), and the housing market is competitive as I’ve ever witnessed.  For fucked sake, DAVID HALL, the most diabolical mortgage peddler of the housing crisis is back on the radio.

There is an unreasonably low expectation of a March rate hike.  My opinion.

 

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The Highs Are Weak Heading into Fed Minutes Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range overnight but also managed to form a double/weak high at 5353.75.  At 7am MBA Mortgage data was released.

Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home sales at 10am, the US Treasury is auctioning off $13B worth of 2-year floating rate notes, then at 1pm they’ll auction $34B worth of 5-year notes.

At 2pm the FOMC Minutes will be released from the February 1st meeting.  Traders down at the CME are currently pricing in a 17.7% chance of a rate hike when the Fed next meets on March 15th.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The gap down to start the holiday shortened week was greeted with buying.  Buyers pressed to new all-time highs before price retraced down through the daily mid.  We churned through the NYC lunch then ramped higher at end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to work up through overnight high/weak high 5353.75 to tag measured move target 5358.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5337.25 and tag 5333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down and close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers just below at 5322.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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National Parks Are Dumb Anyway: Arch Coal Shares Spike Higher on Rumor Trump Preparing Executive Order To Lift Coal Mining Ban

Soon our national parks will be fenced off and occupied by heavy machinery with the explicit purpose of digging giant holes and harvesting sweet, sweet coal.  At least, that’s what the latest rumors from Washington are saying.

Shares of Arch [nemesis] Coal spiked higher Tuesday morning after reports were crossing trading desks saying Trump is preparing an Executive Order to lift the coal mining ban on federal lands.

Arch coal is pumped.  According to their website, they sold 128 million tons of black rock in 2015.  Freed from the oppressive regulations of the EPA, and without regard to dumb hippies and Indians trying to protect sacred swaths of nature, they might be able to blast a few million more tons out of the earth.  With a little luck and dynamite, of course.

These rumors from the White House are all very bullish for coal.

Probably bearish for earth.

Fun times.

Shares of $ARCH actually have a negative return so far, year-to-date.  Let’s hope our authoritarian regime can fix that for the good capital invested in crude energy production.

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President’s Day Rally Extends into First Official Trading Day of Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the progress made during Globex on Monday which means we are coming into the first real trading day of the week gap up.

The economic calendar is interesting today.  At 9:45am we’ll hear from Markit and their reading of Manufacturing and Service PMI.  Then, at 11:30am lots of short duration debt is being auctioned off.  The 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month T-bills will be auctioned by the US Treasury—$34B, $28B, and $35B respectively.  Then at 1pm a 2-year Note auction.  There’s some Fed speak today, but not from anyone important.

Last week US markets worked higher for the second consecutive strong week.  Nearly uninterrupted, see below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and the morning featured a buying drive.  Then buying continued all day long, right up to the end of the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 5331.75.  From here look for a move to close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers down at 5322.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press off the open, take out overnight high 5341.50 then probe above President’s Day high 5345.50 and into open air briefly before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 rally continues, stretch target up at 5358.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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iBankCoin Labs Still Bullish on US Markets

Good day and greetings from the unseasonably warm northern territories!  The scientists at iBankCoin labs would like to thank the robots inside Exodus for their continued service and for keeping us on the right side of the tape in 2017.  After running a full diagnostic evaluation of the components inside Exodus, iBC labs is issuing a bullish outlook for the upcoming week.

Beware of the FOMC and their Minutes, set for release Wednesday afternoon.  Also, enjoy a holiday Monday as markets observe President’s Day. Perhaps use your time to pursue other industrious efforts, after all it’s still a Monday.

The world may be heating up enough to put Miami underwater, desperate-for-water Californians are enjoying apocalyptic rain in a cruel and ironic way, but the good and boring north is just as pleasant as a peach.

BULLISH

Exodus members, the 119th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Aetna Doubles Dividend; Buys Back $4B Shares

Aetna has so much cash burning a hole in their balance sheet that they decided to do something about it.  Since the company sees Obamacare death spiraling, they think it’s best to pay their investors and buy their own stock, apparently.

Aetna Reports Additional $4B Buyback

Aetna Doubles Quarterly Cash Dividend From $0.25 To $0.50/Share

The news was initially greeted with a spectacular intra-day spike higher, but much of the move in $AET was given back.

Insurance companies are minting coin on the backs of the young and healthy but investment opportunities appear limited.  Therefore, the cash is being awarded to investors–not their workers–of course.

BULLISH

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NASDAQ Lower Heading into Friday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Thursday low briefly before recovering and settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am Leading Indicators data is out, and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.  There are no other economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After an early spike took prices to new highs, sellers made two hard rotations lower before we marked time for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5301.  From here we take out overnight high 5303.25.  Look for sellers up at 5308.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5286.75 and continue lower, down to 5278.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5270 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

*REVISION: This post originally stated that the Snapchat IPO was today, February 17th.  It has since been updated.

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Trump Stock Market Rally Continues; Day After Trend Day Context Applies

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new all-time highs before settling into two-way trade along the unchanged line.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data were below expectations, Building Permits above expectations, Initial/Continuing jobless claims data worse than expected, and Philadelphia Fed data was much better than expected.

The only other economic event on the docket today is a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Steady buying all day from open-to-close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 5313.50 and continue exploring higher prices—open air.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5304.50.  Look for buyers down at 5295.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a move down to 5279 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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