iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,924 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Looks Back To Fed Reaction Overnight, Finds Buyers

NASDAQ futures are starting the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, pressing all the way down into the post FOMC rate hike rally before finding bidders and returning flat.

The economic calendar starts out extra light this week.  The US Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-bills at 11:30am.  The rest of the day is free.  Low-level Fed Reserve official Evans is speaking at 1:10pm, but little attention will be paid to him.

Last week the Russell rallied hard while the other indices marked time.  This rally came from the low-end of a multi-month range in the Russell, which was critical for buyer to hold if the bull case were to remain intact, intermedite term.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  Price opened flat, went range extension down.  Sellers could not take out the Thursday low.  Instead buyers came in and auctioned price back up through the entire daily range, making new daily highs before the entire move was reversed by sellers, back down through the entire range, to close near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up though overnight high 5409 and tag the MCVPOC at 5414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 5421.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5396 and trade down to 5389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Markets Stay Neutral After Quad-witching, A Look Inside Exodus Strategy Session

Two weeks back, iBC labs issued a public announcement that trouble was brewing.  Much like the nor’easter that drifted by last week, dire warnings were issued only to see little devastation and chaos come from it.  However, the short bias had utility.  Intra-day trading the short bias during the week spanning 3/6 – 3/10 yielded successful results.

For the week we had two neutral days, one range extension up, and two range extension downs.   It was one of the first weeks in 2017 where sellers had any traction.

From a swing basis, the trade was wrong.

Having the post FOMC-rate hike reaction as a proxy for whether this trade was right or wrong was useful, as it provided a definitive answer to the question.  It was wrong.

Under the surface of index prices there were some heavy blows to the energy and basic materials sectors, as well as financials and healthcare.  Take a look at some of the losses endured from 3/6 – 3/10 from several industries:

All that being said, we have headed higher since the call was made, and prices have recovered handsomely across the board.  Into the upcoming week, the Exodus Strategy Session offers no clear indication of where price is headed.  There is one piece of data inside Exodus worth noting.  The algorithmic Hybrid Chg % number, found on the Historical tab, has kept us on the right side of the tape for a very long time.  It has shown, simply, that buyers have pushed harder and more often than sellers.  Until we see larger absolute numbers populating this column, iBankCoin laboratories is content sticking with the trend:

The good folks at iBankCoin labs are happy to walk you through the many features of Exodus.  I recently had the opportunity to speak with a new member who is using Exodus to supplement his gold/index futures trading process.  We looked at the specific tools inside this massive toolkit that are best suited to his needs while also discussing some of the pitfalls to futures trading.

If you would like a one-on-one demonstration of the software, send an email to vince@blacklightanalytics.com or leave a comment below.  As iBankcoin grows under the diligent leadership of Senor Tropicana, and with zeropointnow expanding our reach like never before, it becomes paramount that new members become cohesive stock market operators, so we may dominate the financial markets.  Your success means a continued broadcast of truth and greatness—honest narratives of world happenings and MOAR—all while banking industrial quantities of coin along the way.

As for next week, iBC Labs have no data rolling in from the thousands of autonomous sensors deployed throughout the financial markets.  The economic calendar is slow, and we have a full two week of March left.  Therefore, we are content to issue a neutral rating, erring on the side of the bulls, going into the fourth week of the third month under our new American authoritarian regime.

Shine on you crazy diamonds

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NASDAQ Trots into Option Expiration Day Flat, Fat, and Calm

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday trade flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday range overnight on balanced trade.

On the economic front, we have the primary read of Confidence from U. of Michigan at 10am.  Leading Indicators are also out at 10am, then at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  A gap up was quickly faded lower and price continued lower, down through overnight, then catching a bid just ahead of the 5400 century mark.  Two-way trade ensues afterwards.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5411.  Look for a test below Thursday low 5402.25 and a continued move lower down to 5400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5424.50 and continue higher, up through weekly high 5431.50, working toward the globex swing high at 5440 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down to 5389.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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GoPro Tells 270 Overprivileged San Franciscan Employees to GTFO, Shares Soar

GoPro made an announcement Wednesday evening, likely after their Treasury department smoked a large hookah filled with cannabis, saying 270 heads will roll in their San Mateo headquarters–down the hilly streets of San Fransisco–all the way to Hyde Park, where the hobo bros eat pizza and draw rat finks.

The announcement follows a cut of 200 jobs in November, as the camera and sub-par drone maker struggles to turn a profit, all while CEO Nick Woodman sails about the world in his 180 foot yacht.

These job cuts likely represent an elimination of the most absurd chaff, the type of fat one trims from a cheap cut of ribs, for example.  These are San Franciscans, coming to work in flip flops for a few hours, working on apps to rate dispensaries on company time, and complaining when the work week exceeds 32 hours.

Wall Street is quite pleased to see these tanked top wearing west coast punks meet the axe–shares of $GPRO are up around +15% on Thursday trade.

Let this be a message to all California residents.  The days of gimmick gadgets supporting a gluttonous workforce are numbered.  You best learn to surf or create a new camera app for Mark “Rubbernecker” Zuckerberg to flip to the CIA, else find yourself living on the streets, busking to Chinese moguls for kombucha money.

GoPro’s CEO is cutting jobs fast and indiscriminately, straight off the yacht, and Wall Street loves it.

BULLISH

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NASDAQ Continues to Make New Highs Under Yellen/Trump Leadership

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, making new highs before settling around the Wednesday, post-FOMC rate hike high.  At 8:30am a slurry of economic data came out mixed.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  There was a gap up in the morning that sellers quickly faded.  Then sellers could not press range extension down, instead stalling just before 10:30am.  Then the march higher began, and it accelerated after the Fed raised their benchmark interest rate at 2pm.  Third reaction yielded the buy signal and we continued higher into to bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work through overnight high 5440 and continue exploring higher prices, open air.  No target or price levels are in play.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5419.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5414.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling presses down through overnight low 5414.50 then tags the 5400 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Models Neutralize Ahead of The Most Complicated Week of 2017

Greetings from deep in the West Indies!

Despite spotty internet access island-wide, the good scientists at iBankCoin laboratories managed to access our super computers nestled deep within the stable confines of the United States, from aboard MotherShip, virtually, and calibrate all systems and model scores ahead of what will be the most challenging week in 2017.  Here are the reasons why this third week of our third month under our new authoritarian regime is likely to be difficult for investors and how iBC labs expects markets to behave.

Friday is our first major option expiration of the year.  Not only will front month stock options expire, but also index futures.  While most active investors rolled forward to the June contracts last Thursday, there is still some activity taking place back on the March contract.  This means it is difficult to compile accurate volume information, and tools like cumulative delta can be skewed by large institutions moving their positions ahead to June.  It is by far the most frustrating week to trade, which is all the more reason to explore the tropics instead of trying to out compete the big boys.

Janet Yellen and her Fed are very likely going to lift their key borrowing rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday.  For whatever reason, markets decided to price this in last week.  88.6% of traders down at the CME now believe the fed will hike during the March meeting, but two and a half weeks ago these same investors were in denial.  Not sure why the sudden change of heart, but we have been expecting a March hike for quite some time.   Regardless, this meeting is likely to stir up an otherwise docile index market, if only for a few hours.

Under the surface of strong broad indices, there has been serious carnage among several industry groups.  Exodus members, take a look at the 1-month performance of all industries, sorted to show the best and worst performances in order.  The beat downs have been far worse and encompassing than the rallies.  This likely means there is lots of worthless paper floating around as we head into option expiration.  This is likely to keep a lid on the market, at least through Friday.  This will allow Wall Street to rake some late/dumb money into their coffers.

The Russell 2000 gave up its attempted breakout.  The primary expectation after testing one side of value is to go test the other, which in this case is lower, and lower has a precarious, pocket-like, slippery look to it.  The Russell could get fast this week if it works down into the pocket, see below:

As for the upcoming week, the engineers and scientist at iBankCoin labs are issuing a neutral bias.  We have managed to gain a clear perspective from the island’s signal station after a long battle with the red coats.  The horizon is free of enemy ships, though our expectation is for the complications noted above to put a slow and steady bit of selling pressure on the tape until we hear from the Fed.

Matters are further complicated by the American’s daylight savings scheme where they arbitrary alter time in a bid to confuse everyone and also save candles.

Next week has all the markings of mayhem and confusion.  And while that may seem troubling, it may just blow past, allowing our impenetrable stock markets to continue shining, untarnished by significant down days because America is finally winning again.

Exodus members, the 122nd Edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Attention: iBankCoin Labs Issues First Short Bias of 2017

Winter is back to ravaging the arctic northern plains.  Ambitious insects and birds, leaving the safety of their nests too soon, have seen their hearts ripped out by arctic spears to the center mass.  The human spirit is ebbing after an unexpected warm reprieve blew away.  Bulls have had a big drink from the sweet chalice of victory, enough to make casual onlookers begin to ask questions.  All these reasons, and the ones outlined below, are why iBankCoin Laboratory is issuing its first bearish bias of 2017.

The Snapchat IPO and Trump’s unifying speech to congress were enough to gain the attention of the people who are typically aloof when it comes to Wall Street.  Some are beginning to suspect “dumb money” is filtering back into the exchange.

Next week is roll forward, meaning on Thursday active traders will stop trading March index futures, and begin trading the June contract.  That means compiling accurate volume data from Thursday to next Friday is cumbersome without powerful resources–the type of resources often found on institutional desks.  It is a time ripe for shenanigans and loose movement, to catch the smaller traders flat footed.

Resident investigative journalist and internet digger ZeroPointNow discovered some Kek-like occurrences happening on the 4chan boards that foretell of market turmoil to come.

The NASDAQ Transportation index may have printed a failed auction last week.  It confirmed slightly, but another hard move lower would affirm the picture more, see below:

Most importantly, the IndexModel, a love child of auction theory and Exodus algorithms is signalling Rose Colored Sunglasses (RCS), a condition so diabolical, so intoxicating, that it often blinds the majority of investors from the erosion occurring under the surface of strong indices.

For all these reasons, for the blind loyalty to US markets, for the insolent desire for global warming, and the despicable migration of humans across the world, iBankCoin labs is issuing a short bias ahead of roll forward, ahead of the Ides of March, and with a bit of luck, ahead of the next negative news cycle.

Exodus members, inside the 121st Edition of Strategy Session, which is live now, we look closely at the decay and rot happening in the stock market, and also discuss what to look for in the upcoming week to add conviction to the short bias.

Go check it out!

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NASDAQ Lower into Friday; Week To End With A Little Talk from Yellen

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Wednesday/Thursday low overnight and tested the Tuesday high before settling into balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-manufacturing Composite at 10am, Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, and an economic outlook speech from Fed Chair Yellen at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Sellers engaged the market all morning and became initiative late in the afternoon.  They were unable to take out the Wednesday low during the regular session before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5365.25.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5345.50 to tag 5372.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5345.25 and target the open gap down at 5332 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5372.50 setting up a move to target 5380.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Norwegian Investor Sells Out of Marathon, Other Firms Tied To Dakota Access Pipeline

The biggest private investor in Norway sold all their shares in Phillips 66, Marathon Petro, and Enbridge, for a sum total of $34.8m USA dollars in hopes they could ‘make some sort of impact’ amid the Defund DAPL movement.  All three companies are partial owners of the pipeline which funnels tar sands out of Alberta, Canada and carries the sludge across critical U.S. rivers.

“We hope that our actions and the actions of other likeminded investors in either divesting or calling for an alternative [pipeline] route will make some sort of an impact,” said Matthew Smith, the head of Storebrand’s sustainability team.

Storebrand, the sustainable investment manager commanding $68 billion in assets announced their divestment Wednesday.

Let’s turn to the charts and see if their selling pressure has had an impact, shall we?

It’s difficult to say exactly when these sell orders hit the tape, but share of Marathon Oil have been struggling to reclaim the $17.50 resistance level.  A short vs about $20 actually makes sense here, especially considering the multi-year slide lower that began at the end of 2014.  Lots of overhead pressure on $MRO:

Enbridge (ticker: $ENB) saw an abnormal amount of volume coming into it during the first month of 2017, however so far it has held up.  You can see, however, that it has failed to regain its upper value.  Similar to $MRO, selling out, or betting short against the firm makes sense vs this resistance:

Phillips 66 seems the most resisliant of the pack.  Their shares have hardly budged.  Worth noting, $PSX also sports the largest market cap.  Big ship, small pipeline.  The price chart on PSX looks more based out then the rest and offers the least amount of evidence for justifying a sell:

While it’s unlikely the divesting efforts of private investors will succeed in stopping the Dakota Access Pipeline, a project Trump has endorsed that began under Obama, backed by Big Oil, their actions, along with the noise and protest of native people, are likely to make these fossil fuel titans think twice before beginning future projects.

Curbing the actions of these huge petro and coal companies is critical to saving humanity from the grotesque human impact on global warming.  Conscious investors are likely to earmark their funds for more progressive companies as the effects of our carelessness become more evident.

The decision to divest millions away from U.S. firms associated with the Dakota Access pipeline by Norway’s largest investor is setting up interesting context for betting against $MRO and $ENB.

Developing…

 

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Investors Set To Strap Some Additional Gains onto The Trump Optimism Rally

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the upper mid of Wednesday’s trend up during balanced trade.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came in mixed.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price was gap up, nearly to new all-time highs and after a brief two-way open auction buyers began campaigning higher, searching for sellers up in the open air.  Toward the very end of the day, during settlement period, there was some responsive selling.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5393.75 and probe all time high 5400.  Look for price to continue exploring higher.

Hypo 2 seller work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5384.75 then take out overnight low 5379.50.  Look for buyers down at 5375 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 5367.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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