I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,151 Blog Posts

National Parks Are Dumb Anyway: Arch Coal Shares Spike Higher on Rumor Trump Preparing Executive Order To Lift Coal Mining Ban

Soon our national parks will be fenced off and occupied by heavy machinery with the explicit purpose of digging giant holes and harvesting sweet, sweet coal.  At least, that’s what the latest rumors from Washington are saying.

Shares of Arch [nemesis] Coal spiked higher Tuesday morning after reports were crossing trading desks saying Trump is preparing an Executive Order to lift the coal mining ban on federal lands.

Arch coal is pumped.  According to their website, they sold 128 million tons of black rock in 2015.  Freed from the oppressive regulations of the EPA, and without regard to dumb hippies and Indians trying to protect sacred swaths of nature, they might be able to blast a few million more tons out of the earth.  With a little luck and dynamite, of course.

These rumors from the White House are all very bullish for coal.

Probably bearish for earth.

Fun times.

Shares of $ARCH actually have a negative return so far, year-to-date.  Let’s hope our authoritarian regime can fix that for the good capital invested in crude energy production.

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President’s Day Rally Extends into First Official Trading Day of Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the progress made during Globex on Monday which means we are coming into the first real trading day of the week gap up.

The economic calendar is interesting today.  At 9:45am we’ll hear from Markit and their reading of Manufacturing and Service PMI.  Then, at 11:30am lots of short duration debt is being auctioned off.  The 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month T-bills will be auctioned by the US Treasury—$34B, $28B, and $35B respectively.  Then at 1pm a 2-year Note auction.  There’s some Fed speak today, but not from anyone important.

Last week US markets worked higher for the second consecutive strong week.  Nearly uninterrupted, see below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and the morning featured a buying drive.  Then buying continued all day long, right up to the end of the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 5331.75.  From here look for a move to close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers down at 5322.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press off the open, take out overnight high 5341.50 then probe above President’s Day high 5345.50 and into open air briefly before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 rally continues, stretch target up at 5358.25.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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iBankCoin Labs Still Bullish on US Markets

Good day and greetings from the unseasonably warm northern territories!  The scientists at iBankCoin labs would like to thank the robots inside Exodus for their continued service and for keeping us on the right side of the tape in 2017.  After running a full diagnostic evaluation of the components inside Exodus, iBC labs is issuing a bullish outlook for the upcoming week.

Beware of the FOMC and their Minutes, set for release Wednesday afternoon.  Also, enjoy a holiday Monday as markets observe President’s Day. Perhaps use your time to pursue other industrious efforts, after all it’s still a Monday.

The world may be heating up enough to put Miami underwater, desperate-for-water Californians are enjoying apocalyptic rain in a cruel and ironic way, but the good and boring north is just as pleasant as a peach.


Exodus members, the 119th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Aetna Doubles Dividend; Buys Back $4B Shares

Aetna has so much cash burning a hole in their balance sheet that they decided to do something about it.  Since the company sees Obamacare death spiraling, they think it’s best to pay their investors and buy their own stock, apparently.

Aetna Reports Additional $4B Buyback

Aetna Doubles Quarterly Cash Dividend From $0.25 To $0.50/Share

The news was initially greeted with a spectacular intra-day spike higher, but much of the move in $AET was given back.

Insurance companies are minting coin on the backs of the young and healthy but investment opportunities appear limited.  Therefore, the cash is being awarded to investors–not their workers–of course.


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NASDAQ Lower Heading into Friday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Thursday low briefly before recovering and settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am Leading Indicators data is out, and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.  There are no other economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After an early spike took prices to new highs, sellers made two hard rotations lower before we marked time for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5301.  From here we take out overnight high 5303.25.  Look for sellers up at 5308.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5286.75 and continue lower, down to 5278.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5270 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

*REVISION: This post originally stated that the Snapchat IPO was today, February 17th.  It has since been updated.

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Trump Stock Market Rally Continues; Day After Trend Day Context Applies

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new all-time highs before settling into two-way trade along the unchanged line.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data were below expectations, Building Permits above expectations, Initial/Continuing jobless claims data worse than expected, and Philadelphia Fed data was much better than expected.

The only other economic event on the docket today is a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Steady buying all day from open-to-close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 5313.50 and continue exploring higher prices—open air.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5304.50.  Look for buyers down at 5295.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a move down to 5279 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Skilled German Tesla Driver Saves Unconscious Man in Runaway Volkswagen; Musk To Fix Tesla Free of Charge

How much does it suck to be Volkswagen right now?  They got the short end of the stick after an incident on the autobahn became sweet media opportunity for their younger and sexier competitor Tesla.

Some not awesome but hopefully okay person suffered a stroke inside their VW sedan, foot to the floor, blasting down the autobahn like it was a bumper bowling lane.  Then, some astute, no doubt Christoph Waltz like Tesla drive swiftly passed the car and used his cunning skills to bring both cars to a stop.  Jalopnik has the full scoop.

Tesla CEO and all around good guy Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) was so moved by the bravery demonstrated by the Tesla driving man that he decided to provide, “all repair costs free of charge and expedited.”

You are witnessing greatness right now—-precise German driving and inspirational leadership.  This is of course very bullish for $TSLA.

No word on whether Volkswagen intends to repair the Passat.

The heroic driver will be back on the road, free of charge, and fast, because he purchased a vehicle from the best company in the world.  Good times.

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Aetna CEO Sides with Trump, Says Obamacare Is in ‘Death Spiral’, $AET Surges Higher

Perhaps the left has grounds to boycott Aetna insurance now that CEO Mark Bertolini (a nice Italian name) said Obama’s Affordable Care Act is, “in a death spiral.”  The comments came during a video interview with the Wall Street Journal.  However, investors were delighted by the forthright nature of Bertolini and set shares of $AET higher.

The last three years have been particularly good for Aetna.  The company saw revenue growth go into hockey stick mode a few years into Obamacare’s enactment:

Earnings growth is not too shabby either.  Perhaps it was all the money government spent running ads to target the young and healthy to fork what’s left of their meager incomes to pay into the insurance machine.

Elizabeth Warren seems to think so.  Perhaps the senator thinks taxpayers should have foot the bill to run a super bowl ad showing how cool health insurance is:

You really get a sense of what a sham this whole industry is when you realize it’s all about maximizing the amount of people paying for intangible piece of mind and never using it.  Most “healthy young people” need catastrophic at most.  The gamblers can wing it insurance free and keep their wits about them—while paying a fee for their insolence, of course.

Does this look like a company that has suffered from Obamacare?

Now they are ensuring they stay on the correct side of history.  Their CEO is therefore a boss, and it looks like he’ll be leading his bastard company to another eight years of gratuitous profits on the backs of healthy young people.


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Wave of Selling Hits NASDAQ after Making New Highs Overnight

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new all-time highs overnight before retracing much of the gains.  Then a second wave of selling came into the market just after 8am.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out in-line with expectations and Advance Retail Sales data was better than expected.

Beware Janet Yellen’s Semi-annual Testimony to the House of Representatives, which begins at 10am.  We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap down sellers made a move to take out the Monday low but stalled out.  Then, as Yellen was taking questions from the Senate Banking Committee, prices began to rise, pressing up through the entire daily range.  The rally accelerated into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5276.  Look for sellers up at 5278.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers close overnight gap 5276 then sustain trade above 5279 setting up a move through overnight high 5285.  Continue exploring open air above.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5265.25 and find buyers just below at 5264 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation triggered by sustaining trade below 5263.25, sending price down to close the gap at 5227.  Stretch target is 5251.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Stocks Recover Morning Weakness after Hawkish Comments from Yellen

The reflation trade continues to thrive Tuesday despite hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Yellen during her visit to the Senate banking panel.  Yellen spent much of her time making sure investors knew the March 15th meeting is live.  Despite her hawkish tone, traders at the CME are only pricing in a 17% chance of a rate hike when the Fed next convenes:

Her testimony hit the bond market and sent stocks higher after US markets got off to a weak start Tuesday morning.  Inside Exodus, courtesy of the Risk Appetite index, we can see the wide-reaching effect of her statements—investors are shifting away from debt:

Meanwhile banks are celebrating the prospects of higher rates as well as the discussions surrounding Dodd Frank.  While Yellen deflected several Senatorial attempts to digress into a political discussion, she demonstrated an open mind revising the legislation.

Turning your attention to the complications of the market, it’s inner workings, there was a capitulation sell algo strike on the NASDAQ at 11:06am that coincided nicely with the turn:

Overall, the tape is bullish, and continues to be bullish despite Yellen striking a hawkish tone today at the Senate.  What does that tell you?  It tells me investors expect the new administrations tax and trade reforms to have a more significant impact on the business climate than the rate hikes by the Fed.


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