I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,251 Blog Posts

NASDAQ Futures Glide Gracefully into June; Here’s Your Thursday Trading Report

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, June 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways, trading inside the Wednesday range for the entire session.  At 8:15am ADP Employment change came out way stronger than expected.

USA ADP Employment Change for May 253.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 177.0K

The economic is running piping hot.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am.  However, investors are more likely to be focused on Friday’s Non-farm payroll data, if they’re focused on any economic data at all.

We also have ISM Manufacturing at 10am, then crude oil inventories at 11am.

Yesterday we printed the dreaded normal day where the first hour of trade is so dynamic that we never exceed it’s range.  This happens about 5% of the time.  Sellers drove lower off the open, agressively, then backed off as a bid appeared.  We spent the rest of the day slowly working higher.  The daily midpoint was a wall for several hours—a wall that was ultimately overtaken late in the day by a gregarious buying push.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work down through overnight low 5797.75 and trade down to 5793.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5775.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5809 and continue making record highs.  Look for sellers up at 5837.25.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Poll Results: Twitter People Have No Bias Heading into June

The attention of investors has been hijacked by our authoritarian leader and the various conspirators who seek to relive him of his power.  Then May comes along and we have to major new products go viral—a fidget spinner for the ADHD crowd and man Rompers.  During all of this, the market has rallied nearly non-stop for 6 months.   This cocktail of events likely contributed to the aloof nature of twitter people.

A poll of just over 50 people shows bulls and bears tied and more people overall who couldn’t care less about which way markets will head in the best month of the year.  See below:

It almost feels like a dull market  Perhaps tomorrow the bull will reassert itself and the first rough open in the last several weeks.  However, at this time a poll of the people is of little help.

Welcome to summer trading.


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Exodus Q1 Top-Down Quant Investment Model Slaughters The Standard and Poor for Second Consecutive Month

Here’s your monthly nudge to create your own quant investment model.  Below you will see the 2-month performance of a basket of stocks chosen by Exodus algorithms:

Keep in mind, the 2-month performance is irreverent because no adjustments will be made until the end of Q1, 2018.  So the positions will remain intact for the next 10 months.

 This basket of 15 stocks only one piece of the model I am building, and live investing in, right before your very eyes.

This is a very lazy approach.  There’s little need to babysit these books.  An hour is spent at the end of each quarter, parsing data, running the Exodus system, then making a few clicks in Motif.

Here’s how it all works.  At end of Q1, a 3-month top-down sector analysis is performed.  At the end of Q2, a 6-month.  Q3, a 9-month.  And you guessed it, at the end of Q4 a 12 month look back.

Each book is a 12-month hold.  Each book can hold a position held in another of the books, meaning certain stocks can have out sized positions.  This means greater micro risk—but also potential reward.

If the systems keep flagging a stock, like they are IMAX (which is getting slaughtered), then it will be bought quarterly and without second thought.

It is nice to not think about investing.  Humans tend to get in the way.  Robots are much better investors, advisors, and friends.


This quarterly process jives well with my inner accountant.  Every quarter I make a contribution to my investments, and while doing so I re-balance one of my books.  This saves on overall expenses and lets me do some simple financial planning.

The plan is to execute for 120 months.  For most of this duration, most of you will overlook me.  Pass me over as irrelevant because it doesn’t engage you emotionally.  Then, when you see the ridiculous gains achieved, you’ll have no choice but to be inspired to be a better you—a cyborg—part human, part robot, lording over the general population.

I shall make boring videos along the way, perhaps with a higher resolution camera on my face, so you can all bask in its beauty.  I do these things, live, so hopefully you can liberate yourself from the expensive fees levied by advisors, brokers, and ETFs.

With any luck, some of you will manage to not blow up by the time you come to the good side.  Then you can enjoy the hedonistic lifestyle you deserve.

For now, let it be known that the quant model has more than doubled the gains of the pathetic S&P 500 over the last two months.



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US Markets Melee Higher into Final Trading Day of May; Your NASDAQ Trading Report

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, achieving new record gains and sustaining the advance as we approach cash open.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out worse than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am, Pending Home Sales at 10am, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After beginning the holiday shortened week gap down buyers aggressively stepped in at the open and drove price higher.  A bit later in the day buyers managed to push price range extension up, by two ticks, before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5792 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, trading up to 5837.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5791.25 and trade down to 5777 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Strong Morning Economic Data; Huge T-bill Auctions; Your Last Tuesday in May NASDAQ Report

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher and achieved a new record high before slipping lower.  Sellers were ultimately denied a chance to break down through last Friday’s low before a bid came in.

US Markets were closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day.

Economic data out early this morning was much stronger than expected.  Personal Consumption Expenditures was out at 8:30am and the Case-Shiller Composite-20 at 9am.  Both solid beats.  The economy is running hot and consumption is faster than the world’s best analysts expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am.  Will it affirm the pre-market data, and be used to justify 3 rate hikes in 2017?  Then, stay sharp, because at 11:30am the US Treasury is having a blow-out sale of short-term debt.  All the auctions are listed below:

  • 4-week, $45B
  • 3-month, $39B
  • 6-month, $33B
  • cash management bills, $25B

Last week we rallied.  The move was primaraly driven by large growth plays in the technology sector.  Towards the end of the week, the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average began to lag.  The performance last week of each major US index can be seen below:

On Friday, The NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  A bid appeared soon after the open and closed the small overnight gap.  Then, after a brief range extension in the morning two-way trade ensued.  Price did not take out the Thursday high, instead printing an ‘inside day’.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower.  Look for price to move down through overnight low 5778.25.  Look for buyers just below, down at 5777 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5748.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5792.25 then continue higher, up through overnight high 5797.25.  Look for sellers up at 5800 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up through 5800 and we rally up to 5837.25 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Flying To Close To The Sun; iBankCoin Labs Issues Short Bias Heading into June

How checked out was everyone on Friday?

The weekend had already begun by the time US markets opened.  Americans, fat off economic gains in housing and retirement accounts (lolz), took out their chipped cards and headed out of the office.

A long weekend for the overworked masses. The best of times, right at the advent of summer.  Mating season in full swing, the mind wanders.

While all seems well on the surface, when you peel back one golden layer from this vidalia onion of a market you see rot. BEHOLD, sector performance last week:

dog excrement

If this data were our only basis for being short, then it may be a bit overzelous.  But there is more.  The infrequent but highly potent Rose Colored Sunglasses signal triggered in the often overlooked Exodus Strategy Session, a report so vital to iBC laboratory security that it is produced every single Sunday by any means necessary.

We will be selling in May.

Right at the end of it, after participating in the bountiful gains it provided.

For summer is upon us and investors are distracted by their summer homes and primal instincts.  The good scientists constantly return to their foundation stone—cold, dead, lifeless logic.  The kind of information that allows for objective decision making.

With any luck, when USA stock markets open Tuesday, they do so in a strong manner.  A gap up.  An early rally.

Or they begin plunging right off the rip.

Either way, and without a moment of doubt, cash will be raised and NASDAQ futures will be shorted at every official opportunity.  We only take official trades, no gun slinging.  This is science.

The results often resemble a Van Gogh painting, and some call our output art.  Which is fine. We know what it is.

Long term accounts, the stocks beautifully chosen by Exodus robots at the end of each quarter, will remain in place.

Everything else is subject to liquidation.

Nobody remembers the Great Recession, the pangs of austerity.  They hardly remember last June’s BREXIT vote.  We are collectively flying too close to the sun.  The Fed knows it, our data shows it, and now your good scientists have wrote it.  Do with this information what you see fit.

If I were you, thank goodness I am not, I would create my own quant model to empower my decisions.

Stay sharp out there and remember—the market is not rigged to get you.  It does not care how you are positioned or whatever else is happening in your microcosm.  It it simply a numeric representation of the net interactions of humans around the world.  NATURE.

Exodus Members, the 133rd Edition of Strategy Session is live.  See all the details of the short bias, and what would confirm the idea even more.  ENJOY!


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Pressing The Highs; NASDAQ Coming into Last Thursday of May at Record Highs

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked higher, to record highs, stalling in-and-around the Fibonacci extension levels drawn from last week’s down move.  At 8:30am Advance Goods/Trade balance came out below expectations.  At the same time Initial/Continuing jobless claims were worse than expected.

You know, economic data points…irrelevant matters. Investors are tunnel visioned on our new authoritarian leadership.

At 1pm, the US Treasury is auctioning off $28 billion in 7-year Notes.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap up, sellers closed it, we established a bid around these prices, then we began auctioning higher for the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5731.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5728.75.  Look for buyers down at 5718.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5696.75 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 press up through overnight high 5759, trade up to 5770 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 5770 setting up a trend up.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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How To Use Fibonacci Extensions; NASDAQ Edition

Fibonacci extensions are one of the most useful measured levels in trading.  Real quick, here is how Investorpedia defines them, which is decent:

These extensions involve all levels drawn past the basic 100% level; they are frequently used by traders to determine areas that will bring in profits. One popular extension, the 161.8% level, is used to set a price target on a breakout of an ascending triangle; this target is calculated by multiplying the vertical distance of the triangle by key Fibonacci ratio 61.8%, and then adding the result to the triangle’s upper resistance level.

Forget all that ascending triangle talk, that’s technical analysis guff.  A Fib extension shapes the narrative of a breakout.  Right now, in the NASDAQ, we have no market profile levels, the most logical trading levels in the world, to work with.  All we have are measured moves.

The Fib extensions in play right now are measured using the selling that occurred last week.  Below on the NASDAQ, you can see the measurement from peak-to-trough, and the subsiquent Fib-extension above current prices.  See below:

We moved up into these levels overnight.  Algorithms love to probe Fib extensions, looking to run stops.  Like if anyone initiated shorts into the down move, or somewhere during the retracement of it, then robots press into the move to see if these sellers really mean business, or if they’re going to stop out.

So our primary expectation on the first touch of the fib levels is for them to behave as resistance (in this case, since we reversed and extended a down move, the opposite ‘behave as support’ if we flipped the idea over). If instead we trade through the levels, and sustain price above them, it tells us this is much more than a stop run.

It could be the start of something much bigger.

And now you know everything you need to about Fibonacci extensions.

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#Triggered: Greg Gianforte Allegedly Body Slams @Guardian Reporter Then Abandons Scheduled Event

UPDATE: There was a local TV crew present when Gianforte body slammed Ben Jacobs.  There’s audio, and it’s sooo good:

Greg Gianforte is a gun nut running for congress out in Montana.  Typically the congressional race in this flyover state gets very little attention, but this is a special election after President Trump tapped Rep. Ryan Zinke to be secretary of the interior.  And perhaps Greg, who is also an amateur wrestler, was alarmed to see east-coast press show up at his Wednesday event.  So alarmed, he allegedly body slammed a journalist:

Jacobs can be heard asking about the healthcare bill on the audio track.  The conservatives are touchy about that one.

A colleague of Ben Jacobs witnessed the ultra-violent scene of an old white man allegedly going ballistic and deploying a body slam, which is a popular wrestling move.  She shared her observations of the attack live on Twitter:

This aggression will not stand.  Police are on the scene, you know what I mean? Taking statements:

Whatever happened, Gianforte got the hell out of dodge, abandoning his event entirely:

Greg Gianforte is facing off against Democratic populist Rob Quist, who also plays a banjo and writes nice songs about America.  He’s a real good Montana boy.  Whether or not Rob wins the special election is not materially important for the House, which will still be dominated by red-blooded Republitards, but it could give some energy to an otherwise dazed and confused Democratic party.

While this story is still developing, Greg’s wrestling moves may have done a solid favor his rivals on the left.


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Strong NASDAQ, FOMC Minutes on Deck

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher in an unobstructed, linear manner overnight while our President continued his international tour of holy lands.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came out better than last week.

We have a busy economic calendar for Wednesday.  Existing Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 2-year Note auction at 11:30am, a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.  Most importantly, we have FOMC Minutes from the May 3rd meeting at 2pm.

And while it’s likely to be ignored by investors, The Fed’s ‘crazy-eyed’ Kashkari is speaking in Wisconsin at 6:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap up and quickly drove lower, closing the gap.  Sellers then backed off, and two way trade ensued along the top-side of Monday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for an early push higher.  There’s an open gap at 5724.75 that was left behind last Wednesday when the democrats thought they had some real obstruction of justice dirt on our wall-loving President.  We have returned to the ‘scene of the crime’.  Look for price to continue higher, up to 5754 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5712 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5705.25.  Look for buyers down at 5700 and two way trade to ensue ahead of FOMC minuets.

Hypo 3 a probe above all-time highs 5727.25 finds strong sellers and we are thrown into two-way trade ahead of FOMC minutes.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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