NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up, the fifth consecutive gap up, after a balanced overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked both down through and up above yesterday’s cash range, and as we approach the open markets are lingering at the Globex high.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications dialed back a bit from last week and at 8:30am the Imported Price Index reading came in worse than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and the Fed’s Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal.  That means we never exceeded the first hour’s price range for the rest of the day and suggests and active higher time frame in the morning then nothing but local-to-local algo trade for the rest of the session.  These tend to occur in low volatility markets and also sometimes near inflection points.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4570.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4565.25 and then a push to takeout overnight high 4584.50.  From here buyers target the ‘Red Monday’ gap up at 4591.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go.  We are sitting above yesterday’s close and a squeeze could ensue, up through the ‘Red Monday’ 4591.50 gap and sustain trade above 4592.25 setting up a rally with little resistance until 4561.25.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap down to 4570.50 then take out overnight low 4559.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4557.50 and two way trade.

Hypo 4 strong sellers close gap 4570.50, take out overnight low 4559.75, sustain trade below 4557.50 and close the gap down at 4549, responsive buyers down at 4548.25 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ future are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, up above all 2016 levels to trade just below the 12/31/2015 low before settling into balance.

On the economic calendar today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am, 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and the 10-Year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Markets opened gap up and buyers drove price higher off the open.  The move quickly fizzled out however buyers became initiative ahead of lunch and pushed the market range extension up before finding responsive sellers and settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory but struggle to close the overnight gap, instead finding a responsive bid [responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday’s close] at 4557.75.  From here buyers work higher to take out overnight high 4579 then continue higher to target 4586.75 before settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, take out overnight high 4579 and thrust up through 4586.75 to target the yearly gap up at 4591.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 4549 then take out overnight low 4546.75.  Look for responsive buyers just below overnight low and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second full week of July trade [also OPEX] gap up after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked clear above the June 2016 high print before balancing out near the mid-value of a multi-day value established back in April.

On the economic docket today we have Labor Market Conditions Index Change at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week started out with a big gap down and drive lower on Tuesday (Monday was a market holiday).  The weakness persisted through the end of Tuesday.  Wednesday an attempt to continue the selling campaign was rejected and a strong bid kept markets moving higher through the end of the day.  The strength was accepted Thursday with price balancing out near Wednesday’s session high.

Friday was a trend day up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4516.25.  Sellers take out overnight low 4515.75.  Look for responsive buyers at 4507 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, take out overnight high 4545 and target the MCVAH at 4549.75 before settling into two way trade and balancing.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through 4550 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target 4581.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overall after working up through yesterday’s high.  At 8:15am ADP employment data came out better than expected, and at 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was mixed.  Investors are more keen to hear tomorrow’s Non-farm Payroll report however, and are likely awaiting the Friday jobs reading before determining market direction into the weekend.

Also on the economic calendar we have crude oil inventories at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  After an early selling drive lower off the gap down, a strong responsive bid stepped in, just ahead of overnight low, and worked us range extension up.  The market consolidated after closing the weekly gap before making a secondary, initiative push higher near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher, up through overnight high 4453.50 to target the BREXIT gap up at 4464.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4472.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 4427.50, churn around the MCVPOC at 4425 before settling into choppy-two way trade.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4427.25.  This triggers a liquidation down to 4400 before a responsive bid steps in and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  The session kicked off with a hard sale, down through Tuesday’s low, before a sharp responsive bid came into the market and erased the losses.  Said reflect rally was unwound as the evening progressed, pushing the market down to fresh lows before price settled out.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications jumped back to where it was two weeks back after being negative last week.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was worse than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite at 10am, an 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down on the week and after a brief spurt higher sellers became initiative and worked price lower.  The session was overall a slow walk lower before a responsive bid stepped in near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4404.25.  Look for buyers to take out overnight high 4409 then responsive sellers up at 4410 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push up to 4390 before sellers step in and continue working price lower.  They take the market down through overnight low 4365.75 and target 4359.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers trigger a liquidation.  Price works down through overnight low 4365.75 then sustains trade below 4359.75 setting up a move to 4350.  Stretch target is 4323.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to enter Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked lower all session, at first quickly and eventually slowly, and tested Friday’s low before finding a responsive bid.

On the economic calendar today we have Factory/Durable Goods orders at 10am then 3- & 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week started with a pro-gap down and drive lower with Monday showing weakness up until session close.  Then Tuesday opened pro-gap up and squeezed higher.  This set up a rally that would last though the end of the week.  Friday featured a strong opening drive up before setting into quiet, tw0-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4433.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4440.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower.  Price breaks down through overnight low 4401.25 early and sustains trade below it setting up a move to target 4393 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4393 setting up a move to target 4377 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers push up through 4440.75 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to fill the #BREXIT gap up at 4464.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher and 1-ticked Thursday’s high before settling above its midpoint.

The only two economic events today are ISM Manufacturing at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  It was the 3’rd consecutive up day, a unilateral occurrence that elevates the probability of a down day today.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to continue working the market higher, up to the MCVPOC at 4425.  Look for responsive sellers here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push lower, down through overnight low 4386.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4377 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push a bit higher, up to 4440.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down through 4377 and sustains trade below it setting up a move down to 4367.  Stretch downside target is 4350.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after a balanced overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price extended upon Wednesday’s rally a bit before settling into two-way trade above yesterday’s midpoint.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed [initial claims 268k vs 267exp, continuing claims 2120k vs 2152k exp].  The initial reaction is a small buy.

Yesterday we printed a second-consecutive double distribution trend up.  This day type is not as explosive as a trend day, but does see a market that is discovering higher prices.  Price managed to test above last Friday’s high and sustain trade above it heading into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4362.75.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4380 and target the open gap at 4395.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down off the open and take out overnight low 4388.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4328.25, secondary support down at 4324, before two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold, we press down through 4322 and sustain trade below it, setting up a gap fill trade down to 4281.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked up for most of the session and stalled out just below last Friday’s midpoint.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications printed a slight negative read and at 8:30am Personal Consumption Expenditure came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am and Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  There was a strong open drive higher atop the pro-gap up.  Most of the day was spent consolidating the move along the daily mid before a second continuation wave pushed in, closing the market near session high and reclaiming last Friday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open up to 4328.25 before finding responsive sellers and settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4281.25.  Look for a continued move lower to take out overnight low 4268.25 then responsive buyers just below here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers push a bit higher, up to 4341.25 before settling into two way trade.

Hypo 4 volatility compresses and we chop range, from about 4290 – 4320.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to come into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme [3rd sigma] range on normal volume.  Buyers saw price thrust higher last night then come into balance below Monday session high.  At 8:30am USA GDP came out slightly better than expected.

USA GDP (QoQ) for Q1 1.10% vs 1.00% Est; Prior 0.80% $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

— Raul (@IndexModel) June 28, 2016

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9am and Consumer Confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Strong selling off the open pushed price down through the week’s ATR measured move band and continued cascading lower, down to an micro-composite volume point-of-control [MCVPOC] printed back in early February at 4171 [see yesterday’s hypo 3].  From here two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher.  Look for a test above Monday session high 4243.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4248 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and test down to 4200 before responsive buyers step in, work us up through overnight high 4234.25.  Look for sellers up at 4241.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4200 and work a full gap fill down to 4178.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4715.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 full-on rally up through 4248 to target a weekly gap fill up to 4268.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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