NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, pushing the market down just below the lower bounds of value.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Household Change in Net Worth at 12pm and a 30-Year Bond Reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  A bid sell push early in the session gave us a wide initial balance that would mark the day’s range through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a flush off the open.  Sellers are aggressive in pushing the market lower, trading down to 4470.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the soft-handed overnight inventory but stall ahead of the open gap, finding sellers up at 4515.  From there the market works lower to take out overnight low 4502, finding responsive buyers just below the 4500 century mark and settling into two-way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4518.75 then take out overnight high 4522.50.  Look for a move up to 4529 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to come into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower last night and found a firm bid on the low-end of our current value.  The market then worked back up and settled into yesterday’s midpoint.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications data came in stronger than expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and a 10-Year Note reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Bulls struggled to push range extension up after a quiet open and a hard sell rotation came in.  Through lunch the market steadily climbed higher, printing a weak high at 4532 before traversing the entire daily range again and closing near the session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open.  Look for a move up to target 4531 before finding responsive sellers and settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4514.75.  From here they continue lower to take out overnight low 4505.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4504 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through 4531 and test above the weak high 4532 setting up a move to target 4537.  Stretch targets are 4544, 4546.50, and 4555.25.

Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 4504 triggering a liquidation down to 4470.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to open gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher for most of the session, finding sellers just ahead of the key MCVPOC at 4546.50.  That was around 6am, and since then the futures have been pushing lower.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 3-year note auction at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  After coming into the week gap up, sellers were unable to fill the gap.  Instead initiative buyers came in and worked price higher during the morning, pushing the market range extension (RE) up before lunchtime and Fed Chair Yellen’s talk in Philadelphia.  During her speaking the market traversed its entire range and went RE down briefly.  A sharp responsive bid stepped in and we formed an excess low.  The market then traversed the entire range again to make a new high on the day before ultimately settling near the daily mid.

Quite the OTF battle.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4525.  Look for buyers here who test up to 4540.  Sellers are here, ahead of overnight high and begin working price lower, down through overnight low 4520.50.  Look for a move down to 4513.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers close overnight gap down to 4525 then take out overnight low 4520.50.  From here a move down to 4513.25.  Look for responsive buyers up at 4506.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers push up off the open, take out overnight high 4545.50 setting up a move through MCVPOC 4546.50.  Look for sellers to try and defend up at 4549.75.  Stretch target is 4555.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second week of June gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to exceed last Friday’s high briefly before settling into two-way, balanced trade.

Today is arguably the most important day of the week for economic events.  Kicking it off, we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Then, during NYC lunch, at 12:30pm Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak in Philadelphia.

Last week price traded sideways with a slight upward drift.  The action seemed choppy at times but overall was methodical and balanced.  On Friday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal, occurring less than 20% of the time and often at-or-near inflection points.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4509.50.  Look for responsive buyers ahead of overnight low 4504 then a move up to take out overnight high 4524.75.  Buyers target the open gap up at 4532 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work the gap fill down to 4509.50 then take out overnight low 4504.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4497.75 then two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go, take out overnight high 4524.75 early on then close the open gap up at 4532.  Buyers sustain price up here, outside of balance, setting up a move to target the MCVPOC up at 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling down through 4497.75 sets up a test of Friday’s low 4478.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4470.75 then two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Pardon this morning’s delayed release, I was in an NFP trade.  If you want to see what was driving my trading decisions live, check me out on Snapchat: VCali

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an abnormally stable overnight session pre-NFP.  After Non-farm payroll the session normalized, printing a range and volume within the statistical norm [67%].  Price managed to exceed swing high overnight before coming into balance within our current micro structure.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing and Durable Goods at 10am, also the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. Sellers made a hard move lower off the open that found a strong responsive bid.  The rest of the session was spent trading higher with price briefly making new swing high right at the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the NFP sellers and close the gap up to 4532.  From here we test overnight high 4538.75 then target 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low triggering a move down to 4500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low then stall out setting up a move up to 4530 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range during Globex on balanced trade, suggesting little has changed since yesterday morning.  At 8:15ma ADP Employment data came out slightly worse than expected and at 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data was mixed.

Neither of these employments statistics managed to move the market which appears to be waiting to hear tomorrow morning’s Non-farm payroll lead before breaking the current balance.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventory at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The market drove higher early on then buyers held session mid through the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4521.50.  Buyers then continue higher and take out overnight high 4526.75 setting up a move to test above the Wednesday high 4531.  Look for responsive sellers at 4535.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4508.25.  Responsive buyers step in ahead of 4500 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close gap up to 4521.50, take out overnight high 4526.75 then sustain trade above 4535.50 setting up a move to target 4546.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to start the month of June out gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to trade up above yesterday’s high before settling into balanced trade.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After price briefly went range extension up late in the morning sellers stepped in and traversed the entire range.  Responsive buyers defended ahead of last Friday’s low and a strong ramp took hold, higher, near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4525.25.  From here look for buyers to continue higher to take out overnight high 4537.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4546.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower early on, take out overnight low 4508.25.  Look for a move down to 4497.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to come into the holiday-shortened week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to extend on last week’s rally before finding sellers at the value area low from the mid-April balance [see volume profile chart].  Price lingered on the high for several hours resulting in a weak high print on the market profile chart.  At 8:30am Personal Consumption data came out as follows:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.4 percent in April the same as March 
and spending rose 1 percent versus a 0.1 percent rise in March.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am and 3- & 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week the market trended higher.  The upward move continued into the weekend when we printed a neutral extreme up on Friday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push up and take out overnight high 4528.25.  Look for price to stall out just above, around 4530 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4511.50, taking out overnight low 4512.25 along the way.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4511.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4528.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target the MCVPOC at 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling takes out overnight low 4512.25, closes overnight gap 4511.50 then sustains trade below 4511 setting up a move to target 4504 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures came into the morning slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was contained inside Wednesday’s range overnight with the action contained to the upper half of the prior day’s regular cash trading session.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims came in soft and Durable Goods Orders spiked way up, well above expectations.

At 10am Pending Home Sales came in well-above expectations.

See Also: Pending Home Sales Explode in April, Heavily Skewed Towards The South and West Coast

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After opening gap up, sellers made a push into overnight inventory that stalled out right around 4443, which was a price level we gapped up through that was left behind on a gap down back on 04/26 [confused yet? 🙂 just ask].  From there buyers drove higher before coming into balance up near 04/26 highs.  This level, 4484.25 is important, because we briefly traded above it and has stalled below it since.  It is a significant swing high that if buyers cannot recapture, and soon, could trigger a failed auction.

This morning we opened gap up, sellers worked into the overnight inventory and closed the gap.  A strong responsive bid came in and worked up through the entire morning range to push us RE up.  Since then price has fallen back to the current daily mid and balanced out heading into lunch.

Heading into the afternoon and close my primary expectation is for price to continue working higher, with buyers targeting 4493 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push a bit further, up through 44893 and 4497.50 to tag the 4500 century mark before two way trade.

Hypo 3 sellers push back down through the range and take the market neutral.  Buyers defend around 4458 and two way trade ensues, closing flat.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves (zoomed out)

TUNES:

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I have to take a few meetings downtown this morning so there will not be a morning NASDAQ futures report.  Look for one to be out around lunchtime, to guide the afternoon trade.

And have a strong beard trading session lads.

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