NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up though all prior highs overnight before coming into two-way trade at the new levels.

On the economic docket we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week the NASDAQ marked time, trading sideways with an upward drift, all week long.  Price worked slightly higher.  Here are the returns of each major index last week:

On Friday we printed a normal variation up.  Price went right down to Thursday’s low but failed to test below it, instead printing a weak-looking 2-day low along the 4787 mark.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4804.25.  From here sellers continue lower to take out overnight low 4805 then test Friday’s low and close the gap down to 4781.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers cannot close overnight gap.  Instead buyers show up around 4808 and continue working the market higher, up through overnight high 4818.50 and continue exploring higher prices.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through the open gap at 4781.25 and continues lower.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4767.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring abnormally low range and volume.  This is the second time this week Globex has been so quiet it registered as abnormal.  Price held yesterday’s range on a balanced trading session. At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came in well-below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories and U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a Normal Day, the statistically rare day-type that we also printed on Monday.  These tend to occur near inflection points.  After opening gap up the market drove to new highs early on and found a sharp responsive seller.  The rest of the session traded inside the first hour’s range, earning Thursday the Normal designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work the market lower, down through overnight low 4796 then continue working lower to target the open gap down at 4781.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4805.25 and work price up to 4819 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4781.25 and probes the week’s lows, below 4766.25 triggering a liquidation down to 4756.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, taking out yesterday’s high twice–the first time triggering a responsive sale back down to the key 4782 level.  Heading into the open we are pinned at yesterday’s high.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims came in below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have a 30-year Bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation down.  Price worked lower early in the session to take out the weak overnight low.  Buyers stepped in ahead of the low print from Monday at 4766.25 and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory but struggle to close the gap down to 4781.25.  Instead buyers show up at 4784 then go take out overnight high 4797.25.  Price continues probing higher, up through all-time high 4807.75 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers do a full gap fill down to 4781.25 take out overnight low 4775.75 then probe below the weekly low 4766.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4757 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through all time high and target 4822 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced and held yesterday’s range on a Globex session that printed a weak low verse 4782.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 10-year Note auction at 1pm, and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and drove to new highs.  Right at the measured move levels responsive sellers showed up and we settled into two-way trade, but sellers never closed the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4791.75.  Then we take out overnight low 4782 and target the open gap at 4779.50. Look for responsive buyers down at the naked VPOC 4773.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers step in ahead of the gap fill, ahead of 4791.75 and work higher to take out overnight high 4800.25 the continue higher to probe above yesterday’s high 4807.75.  Look for price to continue higher, up to 4822 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold, price pushes down through 4779.50 then sustains trade below 4773.75 setting up a test of the week’s low 4759.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4756.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring a tight [but normal] range on abnormally low volume.

Volume was so low overnight it exceeded 1st sigma, or ‘normal’ conditions.  This comes after near two months of normal Globex trading stats.

Price worked higher overnight but held yesterday’s range.  Also of note, pertaining to Globex, is our current high water mark.  It was set during Globex and the NASDAQ rarely marks swing high/low during the overnight session.

On the economic docket today we have Wholesale Inventories at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed the dreaded normal day–a rare day type occurring only 5.66% of the time [according to a recent study].  These tend to show up at-or-near inflection points.

We came into the week with a slight gap up and sellers pressed into it.  The morning selling abated before the range could be extended and we printed time until the ramping hour, when price did the afternoon ramp.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4779.50.  Sellers push down through overnight low 4777.50.  Sellers probe below last Friday’s low 4759.75.  Look for responsive buying down at 4757 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4788.50 and test up through the Globex high mark at 4800.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at the measured move levels at 4806 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up to 4822 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation takes hold and we test lower, down to 4745.50 and close the gap at 4743.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price drifted lower overnight but price held the lower-mid range of yesterday’s regular session.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Apps reading was not as poor as last week (-3.5% vs -11.2% prior) and at 8:15am the ADP Employment Change data was better than expected (Change for Jul 179.0K vs 170.0K Est).

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing at 10 am.  As soon as today, however, the markets may start to pause ahead of NonFarm Payroll, which is scheduled for release Friday morning at 8:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap down, buyers pushed the NASDAQ back to flat where we found a responsive seller.  Seller then drove price lower all morning before sustaining trade down at this week’s ATR(14) band low.  Sellers made one additional attempt lower just after lunch which revealed a strong responsive bid.  The market then rallied nearly 40 points up into the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4714.50.  From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 4717.25 triggering a rally up to 4735 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers defend right at the overnight gap fill, right at 4714.50 and turn the market lower, gunning for overnight low 4698.  They achieve it, then we settle into a range from about 4720 – 4700.

Hypo 3 sellers are become initiative and aggressive.  Markets gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 4698 and test below yesterday’s low 4681.75 setting up a move to target the open gap at 4663.75 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Monday’s range overnight, first working higher.  The Globex rally ended ahead of Monday’s high when a strong sell pushed through the marketplace around midnight eastern time.  The selling ended at the same prices as we saw yesterday afternoon–which line up with last Friday’s high.

On the economic docket today we have Personal Income/Spending at 8:30am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  We opened flat and after a brief test lower participants drove price higher all morning and achieved new all-time highs.  An aggressive responsive sell occurred during the lunch hour but sellers never became initiative.  Instead we balanced out into Monday’s close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the soft-handed, sell-bot inventory and close the gap up to 4745.  The buying drys up around 4570 and the market rolls over and takes out overnight low 4732 setting up a move to target 4727 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers are more aggressive early on and manage to keep the overnight gap open.  They take out overnight low 4732 then sustain trade below 4726 setting up a move to target 4719.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers close gap up to 4745 then sustain trade above 4750 setting up a move to take out overnight high 4759.50 then continue probing all-time highs.  Look for sellers around the measured move target of 4765.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into August flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight and formed a double low, weak low, vs Friday’s low before pushing higher and making a new swing high.   Just above swing high sellers were found and two way trade ensued.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM-Manufacturing at 10am, a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ worked higher while the S&P stayed flat and the Dow worked slowly lower.  The Russell managed to print out a small gain.  The following chart lists the performance of each major index last week:

Last Friday we printed a normal variation up on the NASDAQ.  After opening gap up, sellers worked the gap fill and found a strong responsive bid ahead of the 4700 century mark.  Price went range extension up before selling into two-way balance.  A slight ramp occurred during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory.  Look for buyers around 4719.25. Buyers struggle to reclaim 4730 and sellers become initiative at take out overnight low (weak low) 4709.  Look for responsive buyers around the 4700 century mark and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyer work up to 4738 and find sellers.  From here we auction down to 4719.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through 4738 and the take out overnight high 4744 and continue exploring higher prices.  Measured move target is 4765.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price briefly exceeded the session high from yesterday, just after Alphabet released earnings.  Then price went into balanced trade above Thursday’s midpoint for the rest of the night.  At 8:30am GDP readings came out below expectations.

See also: Analysts Shower $GOOGL With Affectionate Praise Following A Sublime Earnings Report

Also on the economic docket today we have the final reading of U. of Michigan Confidence and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The market opened gap down, chopped about all morning, then resumed the higher-time frame trend, which is higher.  During the settlement period Amazon put out positive earnings spiking the market up on the close.

See also: $AMZN Beats Estimates, Offers Hilarious Guidance

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, up through overnight high 4733 to target 4736.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers trend the market higher into the weekend. Open air above.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4710.25 setting up a move to target the 4700 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 profit taking ahead of August triggers a liquidation.  Trade is sustained below 4700 and the market explores 4695 then 4687.  If trade sustains below 4687 we could accelerate lower.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat-to-slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to extend swing high overnight up beyond the high-mark printed back on 12-2-15 before sellers showed up.  Since then price is consolidating above yesterday’s midpoint.  At 8:30am Advance Goods Trades balance data came out worst then expected.  Same goes for Initial/Continuing Jobless claims.  The read was worse than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have 2- and 7-year Treasury note auctions at 1pm.

Both Amazon and Alphabet are scheduled to report earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap up and some two-way trade, price worked lower. Buyers rejected an attempt back down into Tuesday’s range ahead of the FOMC rate decision.  The Fed left their key borrowing rate unchanged and third reaction analysis yielded the buy.  Price worked up to a new daily high, putting us into a neutral print, before price worked back down to the daily mid, but Facebook earnings came out during settlement and spiked us to the high by market close, thus making it a neutral extreme.

See also: Zuckerworld – $FB Smashes Earnings Expectations, Shares Soar in The After Hours

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4707.75.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 4721.50 and into open air before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller defend right around the gap fill level, around 4707.75 and sellers work down through overnight low 4699.25.  Buyers show up around 4689 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower work down through overnight low 4699.25 and sustain trade below 4687.25 triggering a hard liquidation down to the open gap at 4663.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »