NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range during Globex but sellers started hitting the tape after a better-than-expected read of the Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 11am and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we formed a neutral day.  After opening gap up and having a two-way auction, the NASDAQ 1-ticked its IB high before falling down through the range, down near Tuesday’s midpoint before catching a bid.  Then we worked back to the middle of the day’s range by the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4829.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 4837 and continues marching higher.  Look for sellers up near 4851.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers defend right around the overnight gap 4829 and work lower to test down to 4800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down to 4790, buyers do not defend this area and we continue lower, down to 4774 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, up to new swing highs before coming into balance.  At 7am the MBA Mortgage Applications reading was better than last weeks.

Also on the economic docket today is Fed Beige Book at 2pm.  However, we also have an Apple event at 1pm.  With the right announcement (new smart phone) these events can send ripples through the market as much as a Fed rate decision.

Yesterday we negated the failed auction.  Around 10:15am bears took one last stab at defending the key retrace level around 4817 but were ultimately overrun.  Once overrun, the bulls converted their resistance into support and became initiative, ending the day near the high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4827.75.  Look for buyers there who continue working higher, up through overnight high 4837.75 to target the measured move of 4851.75.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4826.25 setting up a move down to 4818.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4818.25 setting up a move to target 4800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 mark time at highs.  Hold prices up around 4830 in choppy, two way trade.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday-shortened week with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Friday’s range in balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-manufacturing/services Composite at 10am.  At 11:30am the Treasury is auctioning off 3- and 6-month T-Bill plus 4-week T-Bills.

Last week the major indices continued to balance, essentially marking time through sideways price action as we entered the new month.  Below is the performance of each major index last week:

Last Friday the market opened gap up after change in Non-farm payroll grew less than expected.  An early buying push was faded back down into value.  Near the end of the day a strong bid stepped in.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a small move to close the overnight gap down to 4794.75.  Look for buyers down at 4790.50 who work up though overnight high 4806 to target the NVPOC at 4810 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4782.25 to target the VPOC at 4774.  Look for buyers down at 4770 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down through 4770 and sustain trade below 4765.  Look for buyers down at 4761.25.

Hypo 4 buyers push up to 4820 before we balance out, stretch targets are 4827.50 then 4830.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced and holding Thursday’s range overnight until 8:30am when Non-Farm payroll came in well below expectations (actual 151k vs 180k expected).  This pushed price up above Thursday’s high 4789.25 and to the top-side of our multi-week range.

We have some other economic numbers on deck today, including both Factory and Durable Goods orders at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, but most of the attention will be on how we trade post-NFP.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened flat and buyers drove higher on the open.  They quickly revealed responsive sellers who pushed us to a new low on the week before a strong bid emerged pushing us neutral.  We ended the day just above the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into overnight inventory, attempt back into Thursday’s range 4789.25 and fail.  Instead buyers emerge here and work price higher, up to 4819.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers drive off the open, up through 4819.25 continuing higher to target 4827.25 then 4830.

Hypo 3 sellers push us back into Thursday’s range triggering a liquidation down to the week’s low 4749.50 to target the open gap down at 4743.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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I will be back with the normal daily report, including daily hypothesis after NFP, but here are the levels to watch during the reaction to the announcement.

We are in a 65 point wide balance spanning from 4750 to 4815.  Value area high is around 4790, value area low ranges from 4770-4765, and the VPOC is at 4780.

The perimeter price levels that are likely to be defended initially, keeping the market in balance are 4819.25 above and 4747.25 below.

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, back up to the MCVPOC at 4795 before fading most of the move.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out mixed. However, most investors are more keen to hear tomorrow morning’s Non-farm Payroll reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and an early 2-way auction closed the gap.  Then sellers stepped in and became initiative, pushing us below last week’s low briefly.  This formed an excess low and we rallied for the rest of the day–effectively keeping the market in balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4775.  Look for sellers to work down through overnight low 4771.75 then buyers emerge ahead of 4766 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong sellers push down through overnigth low 4771.75 and continue lower, down through yesterday low 4751.50 to target the open gap down at 4743.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 4795.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers trend up through the entire balance to target 4819.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications were better than last week, and at 8:15am ADP Employment change was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending home sales at 10am and crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Buyers drove up through the overnight inventory and quickly closed the gap down before stalling out at overnight high (to the tick) at 4798.50 and reversing.  Sellers reversed the entire morning move and then printed an initiative rotation lower before responsive buyers stepped in ahead of last week’s low 4757.25.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to make a move down below yesterday’s low 4759.75 which sets up a test below last week’s low 4757.25.  Look for responsive buyers up around 4753 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4776.50 then take out overnight high 4779.50.  Price chops around at the MCVPOC 4781 for the rest of the day.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up though value, up through 4800, and seek to target 4819.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full on liquidation, price takes out 4753 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 4743.50.

Levels:

Volume profile, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sellers became initiative for the first time since last Wednesday, giving the tape a heavy feel on this late-summer Tuesday.

But before bears can go around dancing the tapioca, they need to make a clean break down-and-out of our massive balance.

BEHOLD, The Massive Balance

See that orange line?  That is me envisioning a break below last Friday’s low and how we could still be in balance.

Most of you do not pay attention to market profile.  The few that do rarely practice the method in its simplest and most effective form, often instead obfuscating the process with aggregated data and arbitrary time breaks, but that’s none of my business

Bottom line, we are still in balance, and pressing into the hole right now is dumb.  You could have already been short when the failed auction triggered.

Now you just sit.  A bit lower you can consider buying, especially if the algos trigger.

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NASDAQ futures are set to open gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price began working lower around 5am after the European Union demanded a 13 billion euro (plus interest) payment from Apple, Inc.  Sellers managed to take out Monday’s low before settling into two-way trade.

On the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller US Home Price Index (year-over-year) at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price drove higher off the open and found a sharp responsive seller.  The seller was unable to become initiative so buyers pushed again, extending the IB before again finding a responsive seller and ultimately closing below the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move down through overnight low 4780.50 that seeks to probe last Friday’s low 4757.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4754.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4792.75.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 4798.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4798.50 and continue working higher, up to 4817.50 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch target is 4819.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Price is flat on this third-to-last day in August after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Trade is balance and mostly contained in the lower half of Friday’s range.  At 8:30am Personal Income/Spending/Consumption data came in slightly better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bills being auctioned off at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy.  Tuesday saw new highs briefly before an abrupt fall through our entire balance area.  Then Friday, on the low-end of value, we saw a strong bid step in.  Choppy and balanced.  The risk of a failed auction is still present.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push up into the Jackson Hole reaction.  Price pushes up to 4817.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4774 and probe Friday’s weak low 4757.25.  Look for buyers down at 4754.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 range play.  Balanced trade between 4800 and 4770.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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