NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overall on the night session but sellers managed to push down through the Wednesday low early this morning.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected:

USA Initial Jobless Claims for Sep 30 249.0K vs 257.0K consensus estimate. The prior reading was 254.0K.

USA Continuing Claims for Sep 23 2.06M vs 2.09M consensus estimate. The prior reading was 2.06M.

There are no other economic events on the calendar today.  Tomorrow morning we hear the more important Non-farm Payroll statistics.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  price opened gap up and buyers slowly worked price higher.  A responsive sellers came in ahead of the lunch hour but was eventually overrun.  Buyers took out the Tuesday high by two-ticks before failing and falling back toward the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4873.  This sets up a move to take out overnight high 4881 and a probe to new swing highs, up through the current weak high.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, take overnight low 4862 and close the gap down at 4858.25 before finding a strong responsive bid and continuing to work higher.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4858 to tag the high volume node at 4854.50 before two-way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range, trading balanced before giving way to buying after 7am, after the MBA Mortgage Application data came out better than last week.  At 8:15am ADP Employment data showed US Private Payrolls incresed by 154,000 in September, below economists’ expectations of 165,000 according to Bloomberg.

Also on the economic docket today we have Trade Balance at 8:30am.  Then at 10am we will hear about Non-Manufacturing Composite and Factory/Durable Goods Orders.  At 10:30am they will put out oil inventory stats.

However the biggest impact economic event is scheduled for Friday morning—Non-farm payrolls.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day started with a gap up and buyers driving higher to close the 09/22 gap.  A few ticks above the gap the market found strong responsive sellers who closed the overnight gap.  Rotations were erratic, choppy, and fast in the morning before ultimately giving way to a secondary leg lower.  The NASDAQ was bullish divergent from the S&P, and when the S&P was tagging its weekly measured move target the NASDAQ was tagging last week’s MCVPOC.  This zone revealed a strong responsive bid and we closed back up near the session midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4858.25.  Look for buyers down here who work price back up through overnight high 4870.25 and ultimately make new swing high to target the 4900 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4907 then 4916.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, take out swing high 4892.25, tag the 4900 century mark.  Look for a move up to 4916 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap fill down to 4858.25 then a push down through overnight low 4849.25 setting up a move to target 4831 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher from Monday, pushing near last week’s high before settling into two-way trade.

The economic docket is extremely light today.  There is a 4-Week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After a gap down into the week, sellers made an early push.  Their actions stalled out by 10am.  A weak low formed before we made a quick push to range extension up and close the weekly gap.  Responsive sellers were found up here and we traversed the entire day’s range to go neutral.  Sellers could not, however, take out last Friday’s low.  Instead they printed a failed auction before we again traversed the entire range to close near session high, earning the session its ‘extreme’ nomenclature.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work the overnight gap fill down to 4866.50 then take out overnight low 4864.75.  Look for buyers down at 4861.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4881.25 and close the open gap up at 4886.50.  Sellers defend at 4887.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers take out overnight high 4881.25, take out open gap 4886.50 and sustain trade above 4887.75 setting up a move to target teh 4900 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4907 then 4916.

Hypo 4 strong sellers push down through 4861.50 setting up a move to 4849 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Futures over at the NASDAQ electronic exchange are pricing a gap down to start the first week of October after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held last Friday’s range overnight on balanced trade that worked slightly lower.

On the economic docket today we have Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing at 10am, also a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week also kicked off with a gap down–a slightly larger one.  Then Monday was spent in a tight range.  Tuesday worked higher to close the weekly gap, and when price attempted to break Monday’s low on Thursday, strong responsive buyers were on the scene defending ahead of the lows.  Friday saw price push up before a fast sell at the end of the day.

The performance of each major index last week can is below:

Last Friday we printed a normal variation up which featured an air pocket formation.  This volume profile void formed because price discovery up was taking place.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4865.75.  From here look for a move to take overnight high 4879.50 and close the gap up at 4886.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down to target the MCVPOC at 4837 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down to testing the low end of value–4830.75 then 4823 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers close overnight gap 4865.75, close gap up at 4886.50, then sustain trade above 4888 setting up a move to target 4900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ future are coming into Friday, month-end/quarter-end, with price unchanged after an overnight session featuring a normal range and elevated volume.  The market worked down through the Thursday low briefly (by 3-ticks) before reversing and pushing back up through the Thursday midpoint.  At 8:30am Personal Income/Spending data was inline with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have U. of Michigan confidence at 10am, Fed’s Kaplan speaking in Dallas at 1pm, and also the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and once the overnight gap was filled sellers began driving price lower, down through the Thursday low.  This set up an even harder down rotation (news driven, $DB) and finally a small 3rd rotation which probed near the weeks low before finding a strong responsive bid to close the day near its midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a fast push down off the open, down to 4823.50 (VAL).  From there buyers step in and work up through overnight high 4847.75.  Buyers continue higher to target 4866.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push off the open, take out overnight high 4847.75 early on then sustain trade above 4866.50 setting up a move to target the open gap at 4886.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down throguh 4823.50 to take out overnight low 4811.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4799.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4, full on window dressing, push up through current swing high 4892.25 to tag the 4900 century mark.  Look for sellers up at 4907.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Wednesday high overnight before trickling lower for the remainder of the night–working back down to the midpoint of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am a slew of economic data points were released including Advance Good Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Annualized GDP, Personal Consumption, and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims.  Data was mixed overall, perhaps slightly better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The market opened with a small gap up which sellers quickly closed.  Sellers continued lower, working down into Tuesday’s trend day but finding responsive buyers in the trend’s upper quadrant.  Said buyers became initiative later in the day after working price up through the entire daily range, pushing out through the other side of initial balance and closing the market near session high to earn the ‘extreme’ designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4867.25.  Buyers continue working higher, up through overnight high 4876.50 and work up to the open gap up at 4886.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4867.25 and find sellers who push hard and send us back down through value to take out overnight low 4855.  Buyers defend ahead of Wednesday low 4844.75 and two way chop ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through overnight low 4855 then work lower to target 4834.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full on rally, close gap 4867.25, take out overnight high 4876.50, close open gap up at 4886.50, the probe up through current swing high 4892.25.  Look for sellers up at 4900, then 4907, then finally at 4916.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced and held the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range before taking out the Tuesday high.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders came in better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifying to a House Panel at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-Year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 7-Year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The market opened flat, briefly probed lower, 2-ticked the Monday low, before driving higher and closing the gap left behind Monday morning.  Price consolidated and accepted last Friday’s range before buyers became initiative near the end of the session, shifting value to the day’s high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop as we wait to hear from Yellen.  Look for a move to take out overnight high 4873.25 but sellers just above at 4874.50 and we settle into two-way trade.  Look for the market to find direction for the day during Yellen’s testimony.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4848.75 and we find buyers just below it, settling into two way trade.

Hypo 3 strong buyers continue initiating fresh risk and push the market up to close the gap at 4886.50.  Stretch target is taking out the weak high at 4892.25 and targeting 4900 then 4907.

Hypo 4 sellers drive price back down to 4835 and test the top-end of last week’s balance again.  If buyers do not defend prior value high aggressively, we could press down through the entire value to target 4800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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Futures on the NASDAQ are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked down through the Monday low briefly before finding a strong bid right at the MCVPOC that formed throughout late-September at 4801.50.  Buyers pushed up through the entire Monday range before eventually stalling out just ahead of Friday’s session low.  Price then fell back down into the Monday range ahead of cash open.

There are several economic events today, all low-medium impact.  At 9am the Case-Shiller Composite 20, at 9:45am the Markit Service/Composite PMI, at 10am Consumer Confidence, at 11:30am a 4-week T-bill auction, and at 1pm a 5-Year Note auction.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened gap down and after an early drive lower buyers stepped in and pushed the market range extension up.  Buyers could not close the gap down into the week, however, before price began working to a new session low before ultimately coming into balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for choppy trade that works lower.  There is a market profile ledge at 4812 that price spills over and we work down through overnight low 4800.75 to target 4799.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 the chop gives way to higher prices.  Sellers cannot push the market down through 4812.  Instead we work higher, up to 4837 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through 4837 and take out overnight high 4846.50 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 4858 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked lower to test the topside of a value the market formed before the FOMC rate decision last Wednesday.  Buyers showed up and defended the region.

On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week began choppy but ultimately gave way to buying after the Federal Reserve left their key borrowing rate unchanged.  All markets but the Russell 2000 made new swing highs post-FOMC.  However, the Russell was the best performing index on the week.  Below is the return of each major index last week:

Last Friday the NASDAQ opened gap down and after failing to regain the Thursday range it pushed lower to close the Wenesday/Thursday gap, ultimately printed a neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade back to Friday’s low 4848.25.  Sellers reject a move back into the range and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4858 then take out overnight high 4859.50.  Look for sellers up at 4862.25 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4819.  Buyers show up around 4815 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, down below 4815 to target the MCVPOC at 4801.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday down a touch after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday’s range in slow and balanced trade.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, a panel of Fed bankers speaking at noon, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The market opened gap up to fresh highs and an early open auction gave way to more initiative buying.  Up near the Fibonacci measured move target sellers stepped in and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4886.50.  Look for a test above the Thursday high 4892.25, to to tag the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price below 4882 and work down through overnight low 4875.25.  They tag 4867 before finding buyers who balance the market into the weekend.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down and close Wednesday’s gap down to 4849.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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