NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced and holding Thursday’s range overnight until 8:30am when Non-Farm payroll came in well below expectations (actual 151k vs 180k expected). This pushed price up above Thursday’s high 4789.25 and to the top-side of our multi-week range.
We have some other economic numbers on deck today, including both Factory and Durable Goods orders at 10am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, but most of the attention will be on how we trade post-NFP.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. Price opened flat and buyers drove higher on the open. They quickly revealed responsive sellers who pushed us to a new low on the week before a strong bid emerged pushing us neutral. We ended the day just above the midpoint.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into overnight inventory, attempt back into Thursday’s range 4789.25 and fail. Instead buyers emerge here and work price higher, up to 4819.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 strong buyers drive off the open, up through 4819.25 continuing higher to target 4827.25 then 4830.
Hypo 3 sellers push us back into Thursday’s range triggering a liquidation down to the week’s low 4749.50 to target the open gap down at 4743.50 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
a close greater than 0.50% in the S&P would be welcome