NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, up into single prints that stretch up to 4886.25.  This ‘thin and fast’ zone is likely to be traversed quickly.

On the economic calendar today we have Market Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and at 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off some 3- and 6-month T-bills.

Last week the NASDAQ was strong while other indces were mixed.  The Dow lagged behind and my catch up this week.  Last week’s performance for each major index is below:

On Friday we printed a normal variation up.  And early probe lower marked session low and we spent the rest of the day slowly working higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze up to 4886 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 squeeze pushes up to 4886.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4843.25 then take out overnight low 4842.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly exceeded Thursday’s high before settling into balance.

The economic calendar is light today.  Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm, that’s it.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  A volatile first hour of trade eventually extended lower.  The lower prices found a strong responsive bid right around the MCVPOC at 4800.  Then, at the end of the day when Microsoft reported earnings, we thrusted higher, during settlement, putting us into a neutral extreme print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4844.25.  Then look for a move to take out overnight high 4849 and probe above the Wednesday high 4856.75.  Look for sellers up at 4861.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 4832.25 and work down to 4796.75 before finding a responsive bid and settling into two way trade.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down to 4780.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced, mostly, until falling to session lower around 8:45am.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims were worse than expected and the Philly Fed number was slightly better then expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have two items at 10am–Existing Home Sales and Leading Indicators.  Both soft items, unlikely to roil the markets.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened flat, it made a little range extension up, then churn and balance took hold inside Tuesday’s range.  Dangerous territory for day-traders.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4832.  From here we move lower, take out overnight low 4821.25 and continue lower to 4807 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers are stronger, take out 4807 to target the open gap at 4804 then the MCVPOC at 4796.25 before we settle into two-way action.

Hypo 3 buyers work gap fill up to 4832 then take out overnight high 4844 and make a move above Tuesday’s high 4856.75 to target the MCVPOC at 4861.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring abnormal range on normal volume.  Price steadily trended higher overnight, testing up into the conviction selling day from Tuesday of last week.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index came in below expectations, ex. food and energy.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.  Intel and Yahoo report earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  These rare prints occur when the first hour of trade is so dynamic, so OTF active, that the rest of the day cannot exceed the wide range of the initial balance.  At the end of the day, after a tight balance that slowly worked toward session low, earnings from Netflix and IBM put a strong bid into the market.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap and go trend up.  Look for a quick move up to the MCVPOC at 4861 before sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and test last Friday’s high 4841.  They push down a bit lower, but buyers step in ahead of 4816 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down into overnight inventory, working a gap fill down to 4804 then taking out overnight low 4799.75.  Look for buyers down at 4780.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 stronger trend up works up to the open gap at 4893.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower for much of the evening, probing to the midpoint from last Thursday before an early-morning round of buying put the market back to unchanged.

On the economic calendar today we have Industrial Production at 9:15am, and both 3- and 6-month T-Bills us for auction at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy but overall markets worked lower.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

Reminder: the Russell 2000 may lead the market this week

On Friday, the NASDSQ printed an ugly normal variation down.  After a gap up and morning drive higher, buyers fizzled out.  Sellers then negated the morning drive and gap before 2-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the early morning inventory.  Look for a move down to 4788 to reveal buyers who work up through overnight high 4806.  Look for sellers ahead of 4820 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers off the open take out overnight high 4806 and continue higher through the Friday weak high at 4841.  Look for sellers up at 4850 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4781 and target 4751.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  A balanced Globex session gave way to buying around 5am and pushed up through the Thursday high to test the lower boundary [see red/green volume profile on second chart below] of our upper balance before finding sellers.

On the economic calendar today we have Advance Retail Sales at 8:30am, U. of Michigan issues their preliminary reading of Confidence for October at 10am, and Yellen talks at the Boston Fed Conference at 12 noon.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  A big gap down was met with strong selling off the open, driving price lower.  Responsive buyers showed up just ahead of the 09/14 high.  Buyers then became initiative and pressed up to the Wednesday lows, chopped a bit, then continued a bit higher into the Wednesday range as the day ended.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4796.75.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 4786.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers show up around the gap fill, 4796.75, and we work higher, up through overnight high 4822.50.  Look for sellers up at 4826.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap and go, take out 4826.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a fast move up through the air pocket, back up to the MCVPOC at 4681.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring abnormal range and volume.  Price worked lower, slashing through local support levels before coming into balance below the midpoint of 9/15, a conviction trend up day in September.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Crude Oil inventories at 11am and a 30-year Bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Sellers held price in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s trend down during the tight Wednesday session.

Heading into today my primary exepctation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and test above the wall of resistance at 4788.  Look for a push up to 4800 to find sellers who work us down through overnight low 4774 setting up a move to target 4751.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, take out overnight low 4774 and target 4751.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers stronger, work up to 4807.25 and encouter some sellers who are ultimately overrun as we continue higher and fill the overnight gap up to 4813.75.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, downside targets are the MCVPOC at 4732.50 then the open gap at 4728.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the lower-mid of Tuesday’s range on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in much lower than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have both a 3- and 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  Then at 2pm the Fed Releases Minutes from Sept. 20-21 FOMC Meeting.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Sellers drove price lower after opening near Monday’s low.  The higher time frame actively pressed through several areas of local support, briefly pausing at the Monday gap 4859.50 before a second and third rotation lower.  Responsive buyers showed up at the MCVPOC from our prior balance, down at 4801.50 before a sharp ramp higher into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4827.  Look for buyers to take out overnight high 4842 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4808.50 and target 4793.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling continues, pressing the market down to 4751.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buying pushes up through 4850 triggering a fast, v-shaped bounce back up to 4889.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The globex market opened gap up and balanced trade eventually gave way to higher prices.  As we head into the open, price is probing above last Friday’s high.

There are no economic events today.

Last week the tape was flat and sideways.  Despite the odd behavior in Forex markets, our major indices remained stable, essentially marking time after starting out with a gap down.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  An early selling drive lower found an area of balance around Thursday’s VPOC before a second, initiative wave of selling pushed in.  This second wave found a strong responsive bid and pushed the market back to its midpoint to end the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap down to 4859.50.  Look for responsive buyers down around 4855 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, pushing price up to 4902.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on trend day up, up through 4902.25, up through 4915.50.

Hypo 4 some sort of liquidation, down to test 4845.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price chopped around inside the week’s range, even after Non-Farm payroll, which was out at 8:30am:

USA Unemployment Rate for Sep 5.00% vs 4.90% Est; Prior 4.90% Private Payrolls for Sep 167.0K vs 170.0K Est; Prior 126.0K

Also on the economic calendar today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The gap down was sold into, and a sharp move lower around the lunch hour revealed a strong responsive bid which pushed the market up through its entire daily range before going into a tight holding pattern.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4883.75 setting up a move to new swing high and targeting 4900.  Stretch targets are 4907 then 4916.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4852.75 and trigger a liquidation down to 4831 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight, choppy range, from about 4885 to 4860.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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