NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. A balanced Globex session gave way to buying around 5am and pushed up through the Thursday high to test the lower boundary [see red/green volume profile on second chart below] of our upper balance before finding sellers.
On the economic calendar today we have Advance Retail Sales at 8:30am, U. of Michigan issues their preliminary reading of Confidence for October at 10am, and Yellen talks at the Boston Fed Conference at 12 noon.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. A big gap down was met with strong selling off the open, driving price lower. Responsive buyers showed up just ahead of the 09/14 high. Buyers then became initiative and pressed up to the Wednesday lows, chopped a bit, then continued a bit higher into the Wednesday range as the day ended.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4796.75. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 4786.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers show up around the gap fill, 4796.75, and we work higher, up through overnight high 4822.50. Look for sellers up at 4826.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 buyers gap and go, take out 4826.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a fast move up through the air pocket, back up to the MCVPOC at 4681.25 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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