NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up to the value area high overnight and is holding high value as we head into cash open.

The economic calendar is light today—only a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed an elongated normal variation up.  The more powerful rotations came to the upside, especially in the morning when a strong bid pressed the market higher for the first hour and a half.  Sellers were found just above all-time high, and after some indecisive action near value high, a second, initiative wave of selling pushed through.  It was, however, faded back higher by end of session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4939.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 4938.50 setting up a move to test value low down around 4920 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4953 setting up a breakout to new highs.  Look for sellers up at 4971 then again at 4977.50.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press to new highs, then sustain trade above 4977.50 setting up a potent, open-air trend higher.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session that held below the Friday midpoiont.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today the only events are the Markit Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am, then both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was bullish up until Wednesday.  After the Feds raised interest rates price became choppy.  Here is the performance of every major US equity index for the prior week:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  An early drive higher was sharply rejected, forming an excess high.  Then the rest of the day was spent methodically working lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 4925.50 as we work back up to the MCVPOC at 4938.  Look for chop around this area that ultimately gives way to selling, back down to 4916 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4916.  They then take out overnight low 4913.25 setting up a move to probe the Friday low 4904.25 and tag the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling down through 4900 and sustaining trade below it sets up a liquidation down to 4880 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight and held inside Thursday’s range.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data came in way below expectations.

The only other economic event this week is the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day—second one in a row.  Price opened gap up, extended higher, 1-ticked swing high (potential failed auction) before traversing down through the entire range, finding a bidder, and returning to the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop and balance to prevail into the weekend.  Sellers work down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4933.75, take out overnight low 4930.75 before finding bidders down around 4920 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4948.25 and make a brief new high, up above 4961.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up through the highs and continue exploring higher prices.

Hypo 4 price sustains trade below 4910 setting up a liquidation down to 4900 then stretch target is 4880.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday’s range in balanced trade.  At 8:30am CPI data were in line with expectations and Initial/Continuing jobless claims were slightly better than expectations.

There are no other economic events of importance today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The gap up was faded lower early morning before markets went into a slow ascent heading into the FOMC rate decision.  Interest rates were lifted by 25 basis points by the Fed prompting a hard sell lower.  However, bidders were present to defend their conviction level from Tuesday and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4931.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 4940, targeting 4950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4918 and target the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through the single prints, down to 4880 before to way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up through all-time highs 4961.50 and continue exploring higher prices.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NADAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring a (barely) normal range on normal volume.  Price held a 9-point range overnight, near the closing print from Tuesday.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, but who are we kidding, all eyes are on 2pm when the FOMC rate decision will be released.

Consensus among investors is that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.  The key is to gauge the reaction after the announcement for market direction into the rest of the week, and possibly the year.

Yesterday we printed a short squeeze.  There was a strong driver higher off the open, up to new all-time highs.  The rallying continued through lunchtime before some profit taking came in.  Overall the profile resembles a P-shape, a formation often seen when a short squeeze takes place.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to take out overnight low 4934 and trade down to 4923 before two way trade ensues ahead of the Fed.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4943 and up to 4953 before two way trade ensues.

Watch for the 3rd reaction after the 2pm rate decision to give direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, up beyond Monday’s high and the market is sustaining the gains heading into cash open.

The economic calendar is light today with only a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 30-year Bond auction at 1pm.  Investors, however, patiently await the Fed Rate Decision due out tomorrow afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After coming into the week gap down an early attempt higher was rejected by sellers.  The defended Friday’s low sending the market into a calm decent.  After going range extension down, the market checked back to its daily midpoint then formed another rotation lower. This one revealed a responsive bid which pressed prices back higher above the mid by the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for an early short squeeze, up to the weekly gap at 4892.25.  Look for sellers up at 4895 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4865.75.  Sellers take out overnight low 4859.50 and find buyers just below at 4858.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work up to the 4900 century mark, consolidate, then continue up to 4908.50.

Hypo 4 strong sellers work down to 4845 before balance ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring abnormal range and volume.  Price rallied to new all-time highs before reversing down through the entire Friday range and gap before finding responsive buyers down at last Thursday’s close.

The economic calendar is loaded with US Treasury activity including a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, and also a 3-and 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  There’s also a 2pm Monthly Budget Statement.

However investors have their eyes on Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Open Market Committee is set to lift interest rates by 25 basis points.  As soon as this afternoon, we are likely to enter a holding pattern ahead of the decision.

Last week saw US equity market in rally mode.  We gapped up into the week and held the move through Wednesday when we began to trend higher.  The buyers pressed for the rest of the week.  Here’s the performance of each major index during the first full week of December:

On Friday the NASDAQ opened gap up and printed a normal variation up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4892.25.  Look for sellers up at 4895 who work price down through overnight low 4862.  Buyers down at 4856 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4862 to target 4856 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press overnight gap fill up to 4892 then take otu overnight high 4916.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers press down to 4847 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Note: Yesterday, December 8th active traders rolled forward to trading the March 2017 futures contract.  For the sake of the IndexModel, today’s price levels will be reported using the December /NQ contract.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up to new weekly highs overnight, and as we approach U.S. open prices are holding above Thursday’s high.

On the economic docket today we have the preliminary reading of U. of Michigan confidence.  With futures rolling over, this preliminary reading can be used to jostle the market.  Be aware of this 10am announcement.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap up was quickly sold to fill down to Wednesday’s close before a bidder stepped in.  The rest of the session was balanced but sellers did manage to extend the range lower, albeit briefly, toward the end of the day.  Prices quickly recovered during the Ramp Capital hour.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher, up through 4881 triggering a move up to 4895.  We are likely to settle into two way trade from here.

Hypo 2 full-on move for the highs, sustain trade above 4895 and a move above 4907 to make new highs.  Look for some traffic around 4900.

Hypo 3 sellers push down to 4864.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 a liquidation triggers, down through overnight low 4852.50.  Look for buyers down at 4847.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price balanced overnight and held the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s trend up.  At 7:45am the ECB announced a tapering of their bond purchases to €60 billion.  The news sent the NASDAQ into a 10-point gyration best resembling a ping pong match (no Comet).

At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was slightly better than expected.

There are no other economic events on the docket today.

Yesterday the NASDAQ formed a trend up.  A morning attempt lower, testing just below the Tuesday low, revealed a strong responsive bid.  Buyers then became initiative for the rest of the session working up and above the open gap left behind at the end of November.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move up through overnight high 4854.  Sellers defend just above at 4857.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 4871.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 seller push down through overnight low 4836 triggering and test down to 4827.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down to 4800 then 4789.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range overnight and the main feature of the session is a sell rotation that began around 5am and continues as we approach opening bell.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in at -0.7%.  Better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price was choppy and balanced.  In the morning we exceeded the Monday high by a few ticks before falling back into range.  Then just before lunch we went range extension down by a tick before pushing back into range.  Overall it appears the market is in balance and waiting for new information before exploring new prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4787.75.  Sellers remain persistent and defend around the Tuesday close 4787.75 and then work down through overnight low 4775.75 setting up a move to target 4752.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4787.75 then take out overnight high 4795.25 triggering a rally up to the open gap at 4821.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, tag 4752.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers push down through 4750 and sustain trade below it triggering a liquidation down to the gap at 4738.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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