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The 3:30 Ramp Capital fund was created during the recovery of The Great Recession. As it has been recognized by financial institutions around the world, 3:30 Ramp Capital has been known to add a mysterious liquidity to the last 30 minutes of trading in the U.S. stock market. 3:30 Ramp Capital is disguised under the cover of High Frequency Traders and policies enacted by the Federal Reserve and Central Bankers around the world. 3:30 Ramp Capital AKA Ramp Capital, LLC AKA The Onion of Finance will always be bullish on stocks NO MATTER WHAT. #RampStamp
Joined Nov 23, 2015
68 Blog Posts

$SNAP Bids Disappearing Quicker Than Male Reproductive Organ Pictures

$SNAP is getting annihilated again today, trading down 11% at around the $21 level, already well below Thursday’s open IPO price.  Some poor soul paid $29.44 for shares on Friday and it’s already down approximately 30% from the highs in 2 days.  This is and will continue to be an extremely volatile stock as “investors” try to determine a fair value for Snapchat’s Penis to Earnings ratio as well as growth of their MADPs (Monthly Average Dick Pics).

When are we going to stop caring about eyeballs and start caring about real profits?  This appears to be another failed IPO and is eerily reminiscent of $FB IPO where it dropped 50% in a matter of weeks and everyone all but gave up on it around the mid teens only to see it climb multiples higher.  I could see the former happening here, but not the latter.

Full disclosure: I do use $SNAP on pretty much a daily basis but I could easily go without using it for a while.  The same could not be said for $TWTR.  People get on $SNAP to send nudes and humblebrag with their stories.  People get on $TWTR to read the news and check Trump tweets.  People get on $FB to complain about their life and post baby pictures.  People get on Instagram to look at pictures of cats and girls with big butts.

I think $SNAP is another fad and their moat is not very wide.  Look at Instagram, they’ve already completely copied the disappearing message and My Story concept.  It’s only a matter of time before $FB starts eating more and more into $SNAPs revenue and eyeballs as they appear to be a one trick pony.  Don’t get me wrong, their growth in the past 5 years is unremarkable and extremely impressive.  But without profits to back up those numbers, what do you really have?

From a Business Insider article a month ago:

Snapchat parent company Snap Inc. posted a net loss of $514.6 million in 2016, according to the initial public offering prospectus it filed on Thursday.

The company’s losses have been widening in recent quarters as Snap ramps up spending and hiring.

Snap also said that it “may never achieve or maintain profitability,” as it plans to continue investing heavily in its business.

In quick summary, I wouldn’t buy or short this thing unless you like to be a glutton for punishment.  Way too unpredictable.  In the long run the fundamentals will give you the fair price.  The only problem is how do you read the fundamentals?

I found this picture from the future.  Haters will say it is photoshopped.

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Punxsutawney Phil Sees Shadow; Sets Stage For 3 Rate Hikes In 2017

While most of you were recovering this morning from last night’s rioting in Berkley, Punxsutawney Phil was up early checking out his shadow.  This is very ominous as it means we can expect 6 more weeks of winter and 3 more rate hikes in 2017.  I don’t typically believe in this kind of voodoo but Punxsutawney Phil also predicted a Trump win last year.  Sad.

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Humans Are Notoriously Bad At Making Predictions

I ran a poll storm right before Inauguration Day (1/20/17) so that we can keep a record of how bad humans are at predicting things.  Robots, on the contrary, are very good at predicting things because we don’t have emotions.

All of the polls stayed within a +/- 5% range which to me just reiterates the fact that no one has a clue what President Trump is really going to do during his tenure and how it will affect the markets.  To me these polls resemble current investor sentiment as everyone is rooting against President Trump and criticizing every single one of his actions now.  This gives a higher probability for an upside surprise as the fear mongering will continue for the next 4 years.

All poll results said we will be lower 1 week, 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after Inauguration Day.  I will be keeping track throughout the year of how we end up and will be reporting updates periodically.  So far humans are 0 for 1 as the S&P 500 was up 1% the week after Inauguration Day.

 

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How To Talk To Your Pets About Multiple Rate Hikes In 2017

I ran a poll last week to get a gauge of how many times the Fed will raise rates in 2017.  Over 1,000 votes were tabulated which was good enough for most 2016 Presidential voting polls.  I consider 1,000 votes from my followers to be a much better and unbiased gauge of the market than any other poll put out by some $29.99 newsletter slinger.

The responses were fairly evenly spread out if you combine “cut rates” with “zero”.  Therefore, 1/3 of people think the Fed will cut or not hike at all, 1/3 think one hike, and 1/3 think two or more hikes are on the way.  Fair enough.  Let’s see what some of our friends think…

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For those not in tune with the Fed dates, below is the full calendar for the potential to hike multiple times or kick the can throughout the year.

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I can promise you this: the longer the Dow stays below the all-important 20,000 level, the longer the Fed continues to kick the can.  Lest we not forget that the Fed has only hiked two times in the past 10 years.  I also imagine Trump is still waiting for a handwritten thank you letter and Christmas card from the Fed for allowing them to hike with confidence after the election without having to endure the same outcome that came from the first hike back in December 2015.  The fact that the market was unwavered by the 2nd hike in a decade shows to the strength of the rhetoric and pro-business and pro-growth policies that Donald Trump has been preaching.

The reason Fed policy is so difficult to predict is because the market is difficult to predict.  Most likely they use too many metrics so that if 1 out of 99 of them flashes a red warning signal they can justify kicking the can.  Also risks and ramps happen fast.  Right now they are playing catch up.  If the economy and Dow continue to improve then yes we could see multiple hikes in 2017.  But, if we get one hint of uncertainty, you better believe the Fed will sit on their hands and let the market come back into their playing field.  Right now it’s President-elect Trump’s move with the inauguration looming next week.  If we get a buy the election sell the inauguration outcome we will continue to see the Fed sit on their hands for the time being and the Dot Plot will be reorganized once again.

I’ll set a mental note to circle back to this article after the December meeting to see how we did.

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A Tale Of Two Charts

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of bullishness.  -Charles Dickens

The two charts below show the US Fed Funds Rate and the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1970-2016.  Note the area of recessions and how they coincide with peaks in the US Fed Funds rate.

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dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart-2016-12-14-macrotrends

In short: We haven’t started a recession when the Fed Funds Rate was below 4-5%.  Currently we are at 0.25-0.5 bps and there is a 95% chance the Fed will raise to 0.5-0.75 bps.

Room to run?  Or is this the new normal?

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97% Chance Of December Rate Hike, 0% Chance Of Selloff

It should be no surprise that the Fed is hiking rates in December.  The only surprise would be if they hiked to 75-100 bps instead of the 50-75 bps that is predicted.  They can thank President-elect DJ Trump for rates exploding to the upside.  I wonder how treasuries would have reacted if HRC would have won the election.

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Courtesy of CME Group

As it currently stands the US10YR is yielding 2.44% and the US30YR is yielding 3.11%, up 84% and 48% respectively from the post-Brexit lows in July.  That is not a typo folks, both long term yields are up over 100 basis points and all of the pundits and media are proclaiming the banks are about to enter another golden age.  Financials continue to dominate and most haven’t seen levels this high since Occupy Wall Street as they too have been stuck in the mud from the Fed policy.  I can promise you this, there will be an Occupy Wall Street 2.0 very soon, believe me.  I also can’t help but marvel over the rising rates as I was lucky enough to lock in my home refinance in early October before they really started exploding to the upside.

As long as the Fed sticks to their dot plot, we shouldn’t have much to worry about right?  As Fed-head Dudley said this morning, he favors gradual rate hikes if the economy stays on track.  In other news, the sky is blue.  But, if it changes colors, we won’t hike.

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Courtesy of CME Group

With everyone and their grandma knowing that this rate hike is coming, there should be no surprise selloff like last December and at the start of this year.  But, as I always say, the market will do what most people don’t see coming.  Eventually, the tone will change on Wall Street that every rate hike from here on out will be labeled as bullish.  Watch and see.

The Dow hit another ATH this morning.  Merry Christmas ya filthy animals.

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The Hottest Gift This Christmas

The hottest gift this Christmas will be coming from Nintendo.  They are firing on all cylinders right now (sort of) with the release of Pokemon Go (Nintendo owns 1/3 of The Pokemon Company) earlier this summer to the new adaptation of the Mario franchise with the release of Mario Run app on the iOS on December 15th.  They are also going to be releasing a new gaming platform in March 2017 called Nintendo Switch.

All of these new Nintendo products are sure to excite gaming enthusiasts, but the hottest gift this Christmas will be the NES Classic Edition.

The NES Classic Edition is nostalgia at its finest.  At $59.99 this thing is an absolute steal.  It comes with 30 pre-loaded games, which equates to $2 per game, and they are some of the greatest ones ever created for the console.  There are a handful of other games that could have easily been added to the list but I’m not complaining.  There is speculation they may try to push a major update to the system via USB.  Even though it appears to replicate the original NES, it is about 1/8 the size and looks more like a blocky smartphone.  It does not accept original NES cartridges and you need an adapter to use the original controllers.  It also uses HDMI and USB cables for display and power compared to the A/V or Coaxial cables of the past.

My major knock on the system is that they give you a single controller with a 2.5 ft cord, that is just not feasible and almost unforgivable.  It would have made sense if people planned on playing this console on their old 20″ CRT.  I’ll be playing it on a 60″ LED, so sitting that close to the TV makes absolutely zero sense.  I will be purchasing the cord extension adapter in lieu of the wireless controller as I’ve heard the wireless controllers aren’t that great.

A select handful of major retailers are selling the NES Classic but they are all sold out.  This appears to be either a Nintendo supply chain issue or a giant marketing scheme, or both.  I lean toward the latter as Nintendo is notorious for pulling off this move to spur fake demand and hype up the product.  The thing is they don’t need to hype it up.

Walmart, Best Buy, Amazon, and Gamestop have all carried the product since it launched on November 11th, but it sold out instantly.  I wasn’t smart enough to pre-order it, but Amazon has said they expect to fill all pre-orders by mid-December.  Which means, if Nintendo can get their shit together, hopefully we can all enjoy this over the holidays.

I’ve been looking forward to getting my hands on this system for a while.  In fact, I was so anxious that I actually pulled out my original NES last weekend and tried playing with it.  Unfortunately, when I went to start it up I got the red blinking light of death.  Many of you are familiar with this conundrum.  The traditional fix is to blow into the game cartridge or the front loading pin connector to blow out any dust or debris.  That didn’t work like it had so many times in the past 25 years so I decided to take it completely apart and cotton swab the pin connector with alcohol (vodka).  Again, that did not work, so I’m afraid I might have to order a new 72-pin connector or mod one of the chips on the circuit board.  It’s funny how complicated yet simplistic the original NES is, being 30 years old.

Retro-gaming seems to be a trend that is coming back.  One of the biggest reasons I stopped playing video games and getting the latest PlayStation or Xbox consoles is because the games are over-complicated and arduous.  You could play a game like SkyRim and spend days, literally, playing it.  I read online that a game like Skyrim takes 300 plus hours to beat and that’s probably if you knew every step to follow.  A game like Super Mario Bros could take 3 or 4 minutes to beat if you do a speed run.  That plays well when having friends over to play classics like Super Mario Bros, Donkey Kong, or Pacman.  I’ve even seen bars pop up that have NES, Sega, Super Nintendo, N64 consoles set up where you can go and drink and play retro games that you played growing up.

This gift is a great idea for anyone between 8 and 45 years old.  For the younger kids who are used to the newer systems, it is effectively 30 games for the price of 1 that the whole family can enjoy.  For the older crowd, you can relive the nostalgia of the mid 80s and early 90s.

A word to the wise: Do not pay more than $59.99 for this system, unless you absolutely think you have to have it before Christmas and you love throwing money away.  I have seen scalpers on major retail sites selling this thing upwards of $300.  I even saw ridiculous outliers of $4,000 on eBay.  It’s not that this system isn’t worth more than $59.99 (it is), but the fact is that Nintendo will make as many as possible to meet the demand, which is yuge.  Based on demand for the Classic NES console, Nintendo could easily replicate their Super Nintendo console and N64 console and make a killing.  Hopefully they don’t shoot themselves in the foot and provide ample supply for the Christmas shopping season.

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It’s Time To Sack Up America

What is happening to our society?  No, I’m not talking about Trump winning the election and how 50+ million uneducated white males could vote for him. I’m talking about the pussification of the younger generation.  This has become a rising trend for a while now and for the past few years has started to go parabolic.

There has been a lot of bantering back and forth saying Millennials are going to be the best generation.  I think this thought is based solely on how well millennials can learn new technologies.  The problem is that they are mostly introverted and don’t know how to do basic things like pay bills, deal with adversity, hit a nail with a hammer, etc.

The following article from the Wall Street Journal came out yesterday and I about flipped my shit after I read it.  I get so upset every time I read it that I have to stop midway through and take a timeout to color in my coloring book and pet my therapy dog.  I’ve read it five times now and have only thrown up eight times.

Colleges Try to Comfort Students Upset by Trump Victory

Dozens of students at Cornell University gathered on a major campus thoroughfare for a “cry-in” to mourn the results of the 2016 presidential election Wednesday, with school staff providing tissues and hot chocolate.

At Tufts University, arts and crafts were on offer. And the University of Kansas reminded students via social media of the therapy dogs available for comfort every other Wednesday.

There was a steady flow of students entering Ms. Boynton’s office Wednesday. They spent the day sprawled around the center, playing with Play-Doh and coloring in coloring books, as they sought comfort and distraction.

I’m sorry, but when did colleges double as child daycare centers?  If I was helping pay for my child’s education at a university, I would tell them if they attend any of that bullshit then they can start looking for a part time job because I’m not supporting them anymore.  It’s called tough love, snowflake.  My dad would have ripped off his belt, bent me over his knee, and beat my ass if he knew I was doing that at college instead of beer bonging Natty Light like a normal college kid.  Then he would hand me over to my mom where she would take a couple of licks to the side of my head with a wooden spoon.  Again, tough love.

You know who needs real therapy?  Our soldiers who go overseas to fight terrorism.  The majority of them that were exposed to the battlefield come back with PTSD.  An uncomfortably high percentage of them commit suicide because they are so messed up in the head.  They need therapy to help them cope with the horrific things they’ve seen or done to protect our freedoms.  How do you think they get treated during their training?  They don’t get coddled by their professors.  They go through grueling training to get prepared for the battlefield where they get shot at and sometimes killed.  Think of them next time you feel offended or “triggered” because of someone’s status on Facebook or Twitter.  Think of them tomorrow during Veterans day instead of blocking traffic because you’re butthurt that your vote for Clinton didn’t matter.

What has caused us to become so weak as a society?  My guess would be from all of the free handouts that we have become accustomed to receiving.  Free handouts and entitlements from our ever-growing socialist regime.  Nothing in life is free.  Someone always pays for it.  Yet, every time something doesn’t go your way, you demand that someone else pay for it.

Your steak wasn’t cooked perfect – I DEMAND A REFUND!

Your car tire blows out – THE MECHANIC SHOULD FIX THIS FOR FREE!

Your shirt rips after you’ve owned it for 5 years – THEY SHOULD REIMBURSE ME!

But they hurt my feelings! 🙁

Ya, well, my feelings got hurt when $CMG reported shitty earnings and I had to sell their stock because I thought it was going lower.  I didn’t run to my safe space and pen a personal attack letter blaming Ackman and demanding he fix the company.  I moved on and looked for new opportunities instead of wallowing in my grief over something I could not control.  I took control.

This is a non-partisan, non-racial, and non-gendered issue friends, so don’t try to spin it.

Stop watching Real Housewives and The Kardashians.  Stop getting on Facebook to post an ignorant status about how you are upset about the election outcome.  Stop burning the flag, seriously, or get the fuck out.  Burning the flag should be a minimum $5,000 fine and instantly deported.  Whenever the 3:30 ramp fails you don’t see me going to the steps of 33 Liberty and lighting a flag on fire and screaming at Janet and Goldman Sachs.  Show some patriotism.  If you hate this country or the President, leave.  No one is forcing you to be here.

We need to be a stronger race, physically, spiritually, and emotionally.  Take some creatine and do some squats and kettle bell swings. Read books, start a business, help someone out, become a better person instead of whining and making excuses.  Figure out ways to solve problems without complaining.

Provide value.

Toughen up.

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TRUMP OR CLINTON: THIS IS HOW THE MARKET WILL REACT

I put out a poll on Monday afternoon that I thought would cover most outcomes of the election.  If $TWTR would allow more than 4 poll options I would have added a 5th that said ‘Trump/Clinton win, market flat’ even though I really don’t think this a viable outcome.  The poll is still open until about 9pm tonight so please cast your vote and timestamp it to see how you did on Wednesday.

As the poll currently stands, with over 2000 votes, 12% believe that Trump will win and the market will rally and 14% believe that Clinton will win and the market will tank.  The point of this poll was not to figure out if Trump or Clinton would win, but rather how the market would react to said candidate’s win.

The media has ingrained the following thoughts in our heads:  Trump win = bad and Clinton win = good. 

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What I’ve learned about the market over years of trading is that the market will do what most people don’t see coming.  The Brexit vote was one of the most recent examples of this phenomena.  I’ve witnessed a handful of Trump supporters compare this election to the Brexit vote saying a similar outcome is on hand.  They think too many Trump supporters are afraid to voice their opinions on social media and in polls because of Trump’s demeanor.  So they believe come today, on election day, there will be an outpouring of Trump support as they fill up the polls throughout the country in support of their orange hero.  While I could see this scenario playing out in the some midwest states it will be the battleground states that matter, as in every election, since we are an electoral voting democracy.

What I think will happen is the following, and I’m basing it off of this poll and my gut, not my heart:  Clinton will win and the market will go down.  If Clinton does win, we could see an immediate gap up, as all the corrupt Democrats and Wall Street cheer what they have known would happen for months based off of the consistently “rigged” polls.  Once all of the champagne and drugs wear off, traders will start to realize that the Clinton rally already happened on Monday when we went up 2% because she was cleared by the FBI (again).  We will continue to fade the entire day and potentially give up a >1% overnight gain on a sell the news event.  Another reason we could sell off on a Clinton win may be if Trump and his voters refuse to accept the outcome of the election and cast a gloomy shadow over it.  There will also be the constant shadow of the Podesta emails and whatever else Wikileaks digs up.

There is still an off chance we go up on a Clinton win for a day, week, or maybe even a month as predicted by the majority.  But, I just don’t see it.  Of course I won’t be upset if this happens but I just don’t believe it will play out this way.  It seems way too scripted.  I asked a handful of close friends and relatives what they thought would happen with a Clinton win and they all said the same thing.  Thank the media for that.

Just because I think Clinton will win and we will sell off doesn’t mean I would recommend aligning your portfolio short in anticipation of this outcome.  Literally anything could happen so it’s best to just stay put until we figure out who wins.  You should have a large enough cash position that you would be fine with any outcome.  Maybe you don’t make enough on the rip up, so be it.  There will be all kinds of buying and selling opportunities on Wednesday and for the remainder of the year as traders finally start to digest what the next President will mean for their portfolio.  It is more important how we react after the news hits than how we react before.  Placing bets on a certain outcome is what it is, glorified gambling.  Even this morning I saw an 80% chance that Clinton wins.  An 80% chance of something happening in the market with a high number of samples is very good odds.  But we are talking about the election outcome, not how the market will react.

If Clinton wins, expect everyone to say I told you so.  If Trump wins, liberal media (CNN, MSNBC, CNBC et. al.) will go absolutely ape shit. Either way, it is going to be great television.  Reality TV at its finest.

God Bless America.

Full Disclosure: I voted for Trump this morning because I thought it was too narcissistic to vote for myself, so I voted for the next best thing.  The main reason I voted for Trump is because I’m sick of Washington and the games they play.  Congress approval rating is 20% right now, up from the all time low of 9% in 2013.  In 2001, a month after 9/11, their approval rating was 84%.  I think Trump is their kryptonite and their chemotherapy and will turn Washington upside down.  With Clinton, I just saw more of the same corruptness.  Regardless of the outcome, life will go on and we can go back to not hating each other again on social media.

#VoteRamp

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