NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session that held below the Friday midpoiont.
The economic calendar is light this week. Today the only events are the Markit Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am, then both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Last week was bullish up until Wednesday. After the Feds raised interest rates price became choppy. Here is the performance of every major US equity index for the prior week:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. An early drive higher was sharply rejected, forming an excess high. Then the rest of the day was spent methodically working lower.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 4925.50 as we work back up to the MCVPOC at 4938. Look for chop around this area that ultimately gives way to selling, back down to 4916 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4916. They then take out overnight low 4913.25 setting up a move to probe the Friday low 4904.25 and tag the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong selling down through 4900 and sustaining trade below it sets up a liquidation down to 4880 before two way trade ensues.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
