NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, moving up beyond the Thursday high after a Non-farm payroll data came in better-than-expected:

Non-farm Payrolls for Dec 156.0K vs 178.0K Est; Prior 178.0K

Unemployment Rate for Dec 4.70% vs 4.70% Est; Prior 4.60%

The economic calendar is otherwise light today.  The Factory and Durable Goods orders data is out at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count is out at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After opening flat, a strong drive higher began the day and buyers became initiative during the afternoon, extending price higher and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4961.25.  From there, buyers step in and press through overnight high 4970 and continue higher, up to 4984 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 44958.25.  Look for buyers down at 4957 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work down to 4944.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced and held the Wednesday range overnight.  The ADP Employment data at 8:15am came out below expectations while Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data at 8:30am was mixed.  However, investors are more likely to react to the upcoming Non-farm Payroll data which is due out Friday morning.

Also on the economic docket today we have Non-Manufacturing Composite data at 10am and crude oil inventory at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher which initially faded after trading 1-tick above last Thursday’s high.  However, sellers became initiative before lunchtime and pressed range extension up, reclaiming the well-developed value zone established late last year.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 4920.50 and close the open gap down at 4907.  Look for buyers at the 4907 zone and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4933 before working up through overnight high 4936.50.  Price continues higher, up to 4953.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up beyond 4953.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a rally to 4984.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first trading day of 2017 gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  When the contracts opened for trade Monday evening they were gap up, and price continued pressing higher, effectively erasing much of the Friday losses before settling into two-way trade.

On the economic docket today we have Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing at 10am.  At 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning 4-week, 3-month, 6-month, and 52-week Bills.  Price is likely to find direction after these T-bills are auctioned off.

Last week was shortened by the observation of Christmas Day on Monday.  US markets rallied early Tuesday, but reversed by end of day.  The selling continued for the rest of the week.  Below is the performance of each major index last week:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  After opening gap up there was a strong morning drive lower.  Prices continued lower throughout most of the day, working just a few ticks below the 12/12 low before finding a bid and settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 4875.50.   Look for buyers down at 4769.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 work higher off the open, up through overnight high 4908 to target 4911.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 high pressure short squeeze up through 4911.50 to target 4933 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers press a full gap fill down to 4865.25 then probe below the Friday low 4850.  Look for buyers down at 4844.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Broadcasting note: I will be on the move today.  When I land in Texas, the land of steer and brown lakes, GOD willing, the NASDAQ will be near my lower target (see prior post) and I will scale a profit.  Otherwise, I will be plugged back in sometime this evening.

One can only spend so much time in the flat land of grey.  I am hunting powder, high atop the Rocky Mountains.

If anyone’s in Brek, HMU bruh!

 

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What we witnessed Tuesday morning on the NASDAQ exchange was an attempt to break up-and-out of value.  It was accompanied with light volume and no follow-through.

The result?  We fell back into value.  Often times, once one side of a well-developed value is tested, we go and test the other side.

In this case, the other side is lower.  And below our well developed value is a slip zone all the way down to about 4880:

Before this can happen, sellers need to recapture 4928.75 and sustain trade below it.

Note: I am still short the NASDAQ, position trade, via $QID

Writer’s note: value, value, value

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, pressing up from the stable footing of the well-developed value we launched from Monday morning.

The economic calendar is light today—only a 2-year Note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  The first 30 minutes of trade were so explosive, driving higher after a gap up to begin the holiday shortened week, that we never had a range extension for the rest of the day.  Instead, more than half the move was given up, intraday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4961.  A probe below overnight low 4959.25 reveals buyers around 4955 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4979.25 and make a run to test above Monday high 4994.50.  Look for sellers around 5000 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 4937 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday, the first trading day of the week, gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on abnormally low volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond last Friday’s high and settling up near the Thursday high as we approach opening bell.

Last week began with a strong driver higher Monday which was rebutted by the afternoon when sellers stepped in.  The rest of the week was spent drifting sideways with a slight downward slip.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

The economic calendar is light this week.  We have a reading of the Consumer Confidence at 10am.

Last Friday the NASDAQ formed a neutral extreme up.  The gap down was bought up but sellers pushed a range extension down by lunchtime.  However, buyers worked price back up through the entire range before end of day, closing near the session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4942.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 4940 before it becomes choppy two-way trade.

Hypo 2 strong sellers press down to value area low around 4920 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 4950.50 and begin probing up to new highs, taking out 4966.25 to target 4970 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat-ish, down a touch, after an overnight session featuring abnormally low volume on normal range.  Price held Thursday’s range in balanced trade along the low-end of value.

On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales and the final December reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am, then at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  There was a morning drive lower followed by a second, initiative wave of selling.   Then, on the low-end of value a responsive bidder stepped in.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4936.25.  From there we continue higher, up beyond overnight high 4938.25 before settling into trade around the MCVPOC at 4937.25.

According to the CME, we close at the regular time today, and NASDAQ futures will remain closed through Monday in observance of Christmas.  Note: I will be updating the IndexModel ahead of closing bell (inside Exodus, grab your free trial now if you haven’t already) to determine whether or not to hold my position short via $QID through the holiday.

Hypo 2 work down through overnight low 4827.25 and test the Thursday low 4917, finding buyers just below it and settling into two-way trade.

Hypo 3 full-on liquidation triggers by first sustaining trade below 4917 then thrusting down to 4900.  If 4900 does not hold then liquidation down to 4879.75.

Hypo 4 strong buyers press to new highs, up beyond 4956.75 and sustaining trade above it to trigger a move up to 4971.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly took out the Wednesday low overnight, tagging the Monday gap at 4939 before lurching back to UNCH.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have leading indicators at 10am and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a very benign normal variation.  Morning selling led to a range extension down (sellers became initiative) however, their campaign was short lived, and by lunchtime we were back to flat on the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4937.25 setting up a move to probe value area low around 4926 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo buyers work up through overnight high 4953 and have a go at new highs, a test up through 4966.25.  Look for sellers up at 4971 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up beyond 4977.50 and sustain trade above it, setting up an Obama legacy trend day.

Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 4925 triggering a liquidation down to 4900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, right along the top-side of our big value zone.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home Sales at 10am then crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price stayed inside Monday’s range after opening gap up.  A brief expedition to range extension down was quickly rebuffed by responsive buyers (responsive relative to the Tuesday open, initiative relative to the Monday close) and we ended the day back at session mid; just like Monday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for prices to drift higher, up through overnight high 4960 and up to new highs.  Look for sellers up at 4971 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up beyond 4977.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a trend higher.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4950.25 and close the gap down at 4939 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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