NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked more than 20 points beyond Wednesday’s high before sellers stepped in and neutralized the market.  A spatter of data was released at 8:30am including Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, and Initial/Continuing jobless claims.

Also on the economic docket today are several low-impact economic releases including Markit Composit/Services PMI at 9:45am, and both New Home Sales and Leading Indicators at 10am.  There is also a 7-year Treasury Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a stretched normal variation up.  Price opened gap up, out of balance, at all-time highs and after an open auction buyers stepped in and initiated risk.  They continued doing so throughout the session resulting in a slow ascent into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5146.25.  From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 5144.25 setting up a move down to 5131.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers defend an attempt back into Wednesday high 5148.50.  Buyers then work higher to target overnight high 5168.50 and probe above it before two way trade ensures.

Hypo 3 choppy, two-way trade along the Wednesday high 5148.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher all night long, working beyond the Tuesday high by 8pm and continually drifting higher throughout the Globex session.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications data came out better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day.  The day began with a gap up and early rally attempt that was rejected by responsive sellers (a common feature going back the prior 5 trading days).  Then, after filling the overnight gap to the tick [5063.25] price began to rise.  The rally accelerated through lunch—pressing to new all-time highs and continuing to rally for the rest of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and work a half-gap down to 5109 before buyers step in and work up through overnight high 5124.75.  No stretch targets available, open air.

Hypo 2 test down to Tuesday high 5104, buyers reject a move back into the range and we continue working higher.

Hypo 3 sellers recapture Tuesday high 5104 then press a gap fill down to 5096.  They press down through overnight low 5095.75.  Look for buyers down at 5092.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 strong sellers sustain trade below 5092.25 triggering a liquidation down to 5069.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on abnormally low volume.  Price worked higher overnight, slowly, taking out the Monday high just before cash open.

The economic calendar has a few low/medium impact events to be aware of today.  At 9:45am Markit will announce the Manufacturing PMI number, at 10am Existing Home Sales, at 11:30am there’s a 4-week T-bill auction, and at 1pm a 2-year Note auction.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price started the week gap down.  Sellers quickly pressed higher, closing the gap (and then some) before a responsive seller stepped in and reversed prices lower—down through last Wednesday’s low before a responsive bid stepped in.  We then formed a sharp excess low and buyers spent the rest of the day reclaiming much of the morning sell off.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5063.25.  This sets up a move to take out overnight low 5060.  Look for buyers down at 5053 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2, fifth consecutive day to start with a sharp spike higher early on, up through overnight high 5072.25 and a test above swing high 5083 before reversing the entire move and trading down to 5053..

Hypo 3 buyers work higher, up through swing high 5083 and sustain trade in this region, setting up a rally.  Stretch target is 5095.75 then 5100.

Hypo 4 strong sellers press down through 5053 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to 5041.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the Monday after the U.S. Presidential inauguration and the week before Chinese New Year with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down near the low from last Thursday before buyers stepped in and two way trade ensued.

The economic docket is light today.  The only events on the calendar are a 3- and 6-month 11:30am.  There are no major economic events scheduled this week.  We do have earnings from Google [MUH Alphabet] Thursday after-market-close.

Last week the NASDAQ drifted higher, the Russell was weak, and the Dow and S&P marked time.  The performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  After opening gap up and spiking to a new high, responsive sellers stepped in and worked price lower.  They became initiative in the afternoon but could not penetrate the lower quadrant from Thursday before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5058.75.  From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5059.75.  Look for sellers up at 5065 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5037.25 triggering a quick liquidation down to 5021.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 choppy range trade from 5055 to 5040.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, continually rising until finding sellers up near value high from late-last week.  At 7am MBA Mortgage applications came in worse than last week.  At 8:30am CPI data was in-line with expectations.  It appears earnings from Goldman Sachs $GS may have been the early market-moving event, however.

Also on the economic docket today we have Industrial/Manufacturing production at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, Fed chair Yellen is speaking in San Fransisco at 3pm, and long term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After beginning the holiday shortened week gap down we experienced an early selling drive.  However buyers stepped in and defended the upper-quad of last Thursday’s trend day and we worked range extension up.  Then price settled into two-way balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5040.50.  From here we take out overnight low 5037.25.  Look for buyers ahead of 5030 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work us down to 5021.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 5057.25 to target 5059.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5059.50 setting up a trend day.  Stretch target is 5106.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are heading into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked lower, pressing down into the upper-quad of last Thursday’s range before balancing out.

The economic calendar is light today, but be aware there are multiple T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was dominated by the NASDAQ while the other major U.S. indices marked time.  The performance of each major index can be seen below:

On Friday The NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price drove higher Friday morning after opening gap up then churned sideways before a late-day thrust higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5056.  Some struggle here before we continue higher to close the gap up to 5061.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers show up ahead of 5050.75 and work lower, down through overnight low 5030 setting up a move to target 5027 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger selling down to 5021.25 before two way trade.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 5059 setting up a fresh leg higher.  Stretch target is 5106.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight in the same manner it ascended since about 11am Thursday—a slow, steady, churn higher.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came in below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am, the preliminary January reading of U. of Michigan confidence at 10am, and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we formed the second consecutive neutral extreme up.  After starting the day gap down sellers drove lower, pressing down around the 5000 century mark before a bid stepped in.  WE then spent the rest of the day algorithmically grinding higher.  Interesting note, value never shifted higher on the day, instead remaining down in the lower quardrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5035.25.  This sets up a move down through overnight low 5034.  Look for bidders around 5015 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 we press up and close the Thursday gap at 5046.50 then continue higher, up to 5054 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 a short squeeze takes hold after we sustain trade above 5058 and we trend higher into the weekend.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked above the Wednesday high briefly before falling lower.  The market is still holding high balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After briefly going range extension up Wednesday morning, sellers made a push lower during the Donald Trump press conference.  This traded right down to value area low 5007.75 where responsive buyers stepped in.  Said buyers traversed the entire daily range and the day closed at session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5046.50 setting up a move to target 5054 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 5058..

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5028 and work lower to target the 5000 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, holding the Tuesday range while essentially marking time.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in better than last week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  It had notes of a subtle double distribution trend up, primarilly because of a strong pre-lunch surge higher.  The move made it up just two-ticks shy of the Exodus strategy session high before ultimately fading into end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5038.25.  From here price continues higher, up to 5050 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work down through overnight low 5023.75 setting up a move to target 5016.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight range, from 5040 to 5025 in a do nothing kind of drifting day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume on a balanced session that held the upper quadrant of last Friday’s trend day.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today the only events are a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, then Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Last week we kicked off 2017 with a gap up that sellers could not press into.  Instead we spent the rest of the week trading higher, accented by a Friday trend day.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5002.50 and test the 5000 level where buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 4982 before buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5017 and continue higher, up to 5020 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »