Nasdaq futures started the after hours session with a sharp knife lower after closing near the daily low. Price then spent most of the time grinding lower. At 8:30am Non-farm Payroll data yielded a sell signal on 3^rd reaction analysis and the subsequent action managed to push us into extreme 3^rd sigma range and volume session stats. Price managed to push down through Wednesday’s lows and down below the open gap left behind Tuesday.

The only other economic event scheduled for today is the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. It was the 8^th consecutive neutral day and started with a gap up and 2 way trade. After sellers closed the overnight gap buyers worked higher before stalling at an interesting LVN left behind on 8/31. From there we pushed lower the rest of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for early liquidation action. Look for sellers to press their overnight momentum off the open to target the 9/1 low down at 4118.25. A bit of probing finds buyers and 2-way trade ensues heading into the holiday weekend.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and work on closing this overnight gap. Look for a ‘check back’ to the NFP ‘crime scene’ up at 4188. If sellers are not present here then we continue higher to test value area high 4211.50. Struggle and churn, then perhaps a full gap fill up to 4228.25.

Hypo 3 grinder session, in and around 4200.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are priced to gap up into Thursday after a session featuring normal range and volume. Action normalized overnight after several volatile globex sessions. Price managed to hold the upper quadrant of yesterday after pushing deep into last Friday’s range—well up into its midpoint. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims and Trade Balance came out. The initial reaction to the data is a strong buy.

On the docket today is ISM Non-Manufacturing at 10am. We also have tomorrow morning’s Non-farm Payroll on the horizon, and it’s nearing due date is likely to have an impact on market action.

Yesterday, and I cannot make this up, we printed the 7^th consecutive neutral day. These are truly rare times. Price opened gap and sellers spent much of the morning working into the overnight inventory but buyers stepped in before the overnight gap could fill. From there were churned until The Fed released their Beige Book at 2pm. 3^rd reaction analysis yielded the buy signal and shortly after buyers were pushing into the market and sending us neutral. Then at the end of the day a strong wave of buying came in and nearly closed the Friday, 8/31 open gap, per hypo 2 from yesterday’s report.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze up off the open to target 4322. From here I will look for responsive sellers and 2-way trade to ensue north of 4280.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4259. From there look for sellers to target overnight low 4254. The profile gets a little slippery here but look for responsive buyers to defend yesterday’s close and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers continue pushing down through 4250 setting up a liquidation down the zipper to target 4211.

Hypo 4 (today needs 4 hypos) strong buyers continue to push and test above last Friday’s high to target the open Thursday gap at 4332.50.

Levels:

Nasaq futures are priced to gap up heading into Wednesday. The overnight session featured elevated range and volume but neither was extreme. Price was contained inside yesterday’s range in an overall balanced session. At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in much better than expected and at 8:15am the ADP employment change data was lower than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today are Factory Orders at 10am and the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we opened to a big gap down with price well below the weekly ATR band (which is a wide one this week, due to recent volatility). Buyers worked into the market during the morning but stalled as they retested this bracket from below. Then, for the 6^th consecutive day, price managed to push neutral. There was a decent rotation off the low after cash close, during the settlement period.

The Nasdaq was the only index that managed to go range extension up yesterday, with the other three indices (SPX, DJIA, and RUT) printing the more basic normal variation down.

Heading into today we have a decent looking structure. My primary expectation is for choppy trade through the morning with price contained from around 4215.25 – 4164.50. Then look for clearer direction after the 2pm beige book.

Hypo 2 is buyers run a gap and go up. They have the edge slightly because yesterday’s neutral extreme gave short conviction and now we are gap up. Look for buyers to push up through 4215.25 and test above yesterday’s high 4228.25. If they aren’t knocked back, look for continuation higher to close the Monday gap up to 4262.50. Look for responsive sellers up near 4282.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4159.25 then continue lower to test yesterday’s low 4118.25. If they can do this, look for a move down to 4080.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are priced to open down over 100 points and well into ‘pro gap’ territory. By pro gap I mean any attempt to fade the big change in price would require professional resources and is large enough that we are unlikely to fill it. The volume and range both blew outside of 3^rd sigma—like we have not seen since last Thursday. Price began pushing lower from the close of regular trading and steadily declined all night.

On the economic calendar we have only one event today. At 10am we willvhear the ISM Manufacturing read. Keep in mind we have The Fed Beige book tomorrow afternoon and Non-Farm payroll data Friday morning.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. It was the fifth consecutive neutral day as higher time frame investors aggressively push this market around.

Heading into today, we are trading in some single prints meaning it is a fast zone. My primary expectation is for price to continue sliding lower to test 4130.25. Look for buyers to defend ahead of 4122.75 and push back up to around 4170 then two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122.75 as panic ensues. Look for a move down to 4080 before buyers step back in.

Hypo 3 buyers push into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4200 before price rolls over and continues probing lower to target 4130.25.

Hypo 4 buyers push up through 4200, churn, then leg higher to close the overnight gap up to 4262.50.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week gap down after printing an elevated range on slightly abnormal volume. Price made a hard push lower on the globex open yesterday evening and selling pushed us below Friday’s range before finding buying. Since then 2-way trade has ensued and the session overall looks balanced. We are currently priced to open near last Friday’s low.

The economic calendar is quiet this morning. At 9:45am we have Chicago Purchasing Manager. As the week matures investors will be shifting their attention to Friday morning’s Non-farm Payroll ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

Last week started out with a dramatic gap down and early liquidation. The NYSE invoked Rule 48 Monday-Wednesday to quell volatility and it appears to have helped. Monday’s low pricing turned out to be a bargain. For the rest of the week price essentially traded higher.

Friday we printed a neutral day, barely, after making a second range extension down by about 2-ticks. It was the fourth neutral day in a row.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4332.50. Look for some churn defense from the sellers and pushy rotations in both directions (chop) throughout the day as OTF postures heading into September. From there look for sellers to continue pushing higher to close the open 8/20 gap up at 4363.50.

Hypo 2 buyers struggle to close the overnight gap as sellers are seen defending the 4300 century mark. Seller make a move to target overnight low 4270.25 setting up a slow grind lower to target 4218.25.

Hypo 3 is a summer grinder, marking time today to burn up the month. Look for range trade from about 4280 – 4325.

Levels:

For the first time this week the overnight session is coming in with volume and range below extreme 3^rd sigma. The session was balanced overall with a clear pivot at 4307. Price managed to take out Thursday’s high briefly before rolling back down into two way trade. At 8:30am Personal Consumption/Expenditure stats were out and the initial reaction has been slight selling.

Also up for release today we have the final August read of U of M Confidence and at 1pom the Baker Hughes Rig Count.

Yesterday price opened gap up, out of range from Wednesday. An early short squeeze transitioned into initiative buying before sellers came in and pushed price neutral. At the end of the day buyers ramped back up, fading the second range extension.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 4329.50. From there look for buyers to take out overnight high 4340.75 then struggle and ultimately roll over at 4349 before two-way summer Friday trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers keep price south of the overnight 4307 pivot setting up a leg lower to take out overnight low 4281.75. Look for sellers to target Wednesday’s open gap 4211.25.

Hypo 3 a more muted session, contained within yesterday’s range. Two-way chop fest.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are up heading into Thursday’s trade. The session featured 2-way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range before buyers came and pushed price about half way into the Friday print. Volume is coming in just a touch below 3^rd sigma, a normalization of sorts, while range is still extreme. At 8:30am GDP data came out better than expected while Personal Consumption stats were in line with expectations. Initial/Continuing Jobless claims (also dropped at 8:30am) was mixed. Third reaction analysis yields a buy after the data.

Also on the agenda today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day. This print came on the tails of a neutral extreme down day. The neutral extreme day carries the 3^rd highest amount of directional conviction behind the trend day and double distribution trend day. That means sellers carried a high expectation Tuesday afternoon of seeing lower prices. When instead price went gap up yesterday, then neutral extreme up, it created conditions for a short squeeze.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a short covering rally initially off the open, buyers pushing higher. Look for price to take out overnight high 4287.75 and target 4300. Then look for sellers to work back in and 2 way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 the short squeeze triggers real, initiative buying which carries price higher, up to 4342.25. Then sellers come in.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory to take out overnight low 4205.25 and test the odd LVN at 4200. Buyers defend here and 2-way trade ensues south of 4250.

Hypo 4 sellers push down through the odd LVN at 4200 and liquidate down the zipper to target 4130.25.

Levels:

The globex session continues to be active for Nasdaq futures. For a third session we saw price and volume exceed third sigma stats meaning yet another outlier session. Price continued to drift lower after the bell and managed to push down below Monday’s close before finding buyers ahead of the low. From there forward price pushed higher. Heading into the Durable Goods data [8:30am] price was back up to yesterday’s midpoint. The initial reaction to the data is buying

Also on the agenda today we have crude oil/distillate inventories at 10:30am and tomorrow we hear the first round of GDP data.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. Price opened gap up and pushed higher in the morning to close the weekend gap up at 4197.75. From here we formed a slight excess high then rolled over. Initially buyers defended the second range extension around 4120 and pushed back to the mid, but ultimately sellers overwhelmed the bid and we cascaded lower into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open. Look for sellers to defend from 4134.75 – 4144.50 then roll over to target 4080.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4144.50 setting up a move to 4180.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open, take out 4100 early and target 4050.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week down over 200 points from Friday’s close. The overnight session has exceeded 3^rd sigma stats on both range and volume meaning what we see here is an outlier-type event. Price trended lower for most of the session and is currently trading down into prices unseen since October 2014.

The economic calendar is busy this week, but today we have no economic events to consider.

Last week started with a strong up day, Tuesday marked time with a slight down drift, Wednesday was weak then pushed up to neutral and faded, Thursday and Friday we trended lower. We closed the week out trending lower, with price closing around session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for selling to continue. We may see buyers push into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers ahead of 4026 and continued selling. Downside targets include the 10/22/14 open gap at 3950 then the 10/20/2014 open gap at 3867.50.

Hypo 2 buyers step in hard. Push up through 4026. Look for sellers around 4073. If buyers can blow through here then a pole climb up to 4154.

Hypo 3 tight churn on the open with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are pricing a gap down heading into Friday. The index continued lower after trending lower Thursday. The action featured an elevated range but printed on extremely abnormal volume—well over the 60k second sigma mark. Price managed to push down below the open gap from 07/09 and briefly poke below the swing low before finding buyers. Sellers could be seen defending Thursday’s range and rolling price over as we head into the open.

The economic docket is light this summer Friday, with Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday was a trend day down in market profile context. Such a day type is considered a ‘risk free’ entry into the following session meaning expectation is we exceed the trend day’s range by at least a tick the following session. The day started with a gap down followed by an opening sell drive. Price spent some time negotiating the 4400 century mark before initiating a fresh leg lower to close the 07/10 open gap at 4409.

Our contextual sub indices of the Nasdaq are interesting here. We saw the anticipated flush lower in semiconductors, but the Nasdsaq Transportation index is well off its recent lows. This divergence is a feather in the bull cap.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for any early excitement to quickly fizzle into Friday summer trade. Today is monthly option expiration day, and the most important action is pinning both longs and shorts down. Look for buyers to attempt a move back up to 4363.50 overnight gap but struggle and roll over then take out overnight low 4328.75. Price continues exploring lower prices. Look for responsive buyers ahead of the 3/26 low at 4271.75 then a rip back into Thursday’s range to end the session.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4328.75 quick, then crickets, then a sharp reversal to close up near 4395.75 MCVPOC and/or 4400.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation—take out overnight low 4328.75 and accelerate to target the 3/26 low at 4271.75.

Hypo 4 strong push to close the overnight gap up to 4363.50 and then a pole climb up to 4400, churn, then initiative buyers push up to 4436.50.

Levels: