Nasdaq futures are up a touch on the overnight session. The range and volume were normal overnight and contained within Wednesday’s range. Overall the market profile structure shows a slight imbalance that would need lower prices to resolve (see blue drawing on MP chart below).

At 8:30am the Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came in mixed and introduced some sellers onto the tape. We also have natural gas storage data at 10:30am, but investors will be turning their attention to tomorrow morning when the monthly NFP stats are slated for release.

Yesterday we formed a normal variation up day type. Price opened gap up and drove higher but big sellers were seen selling into the drive. By early lunch buyers ran out of steam and the market rolled over. Selling was not dynamic enough to push the day into neutral territory and Tuesday’s open gap remains open.

Heading into today my primary expectation is a choppy session with a downside bias. I expect big rotations to lack follow through making momentum difficult to trade. Look for sellers to push down through the overnight low 4586.75 setting up a gap fill trade down to 4551.75. From there look for sellers to attempt a test below Monday’s low 4540.50.

Hypo 2 buyers push on the open and take out overnight high 4608.75 and make a move to target 4632.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are coming into Tuesday gap down. The overnight session was normal by all measures and featured balanced price action with a slight downward skew. The action was contained within yesterday’s range.

Today is the lightest calendar day of the week economically with only Factory Orders slated for release at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The bulk of the downward move occurred in one big impulse move lower around noon. Once complete we churned sideways for a few hours before responsive buyers stepped and pushed us back to the mid.

Intermediate term we are a few days out from a “check back” to the scene of a major breakout. After bouncing off the former resistance we have stalled a bit.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into this overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4573.25. I have drawn a green line on my market profile chart around 4575 and will be using this level as my bias pivot. If buyers can push up through this level then I expect them to continue up to 4587.50 then 4593.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers struggle to fill the overnight gap and fail to reclaim the 4575 mark setting up a move below overnight low 4555.75. Look for sellers to test below yesterday’s session low 4540.50 setting up a fast move to the HVN at 4530. Stretch targets are 4515.75 and 4505.50.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week flat after a balanced session of overnight trade.  There were an interesting set of rotations that occurred from about 3:30 to 4:30am.  At that time we shot up nearly 22 point and subsequently gave them all back.  The nature of that move may offer a clue into how today’s trade is likely to transpire.  We could be setting up a choppy Monday session.

The economic calendar is dotted with events as we start August, and already we’ve heard the Personal Consumption/Income/Spending data at 8:30am.  The data came in line with expectations with a few samples a touch better than forecasts.  Also on the docket today is ISM Manufacturing.  As the week matures, start thinking about Friday morning’s NFP data.

Last week we started gap down and by Tuesday we found buyers and began auctioning higher.  The push continued into Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision after which we saw buying.  Thursday opened gap down and quickly found responsive buyers who turned initiative, and Friday we churned out a normal variation down.  Overall we ended the week trying to explore lower prices but not doing a very good job of it.

Heading into today we are working within the confines of several well-established market profiles.  This leads me to my primary expectation of chop with a slight upward bias.  Despite having a bearish signal heading into the week (RCS) I will be looking for buyers to push higher early on to test the 4600 century mark.  I will be looking for sellers here and two way trade to ensue north of the overnight low 4568.25.

Hypo 2 is buyers push up through 4600 then springboard off of it to target 4631.25.  From here it is likely we stall out and see sellers come in and roll us over.

Hypo 3 is sellers come in off the open and take out overnight low 4568.25 setting up a push through the lower profile to target 4555 then 4547.50.

Levels:

Today marks the fifth statistically normal session of globex trade in the Nasdaq. The action was balanced overnight until we saw buying pressure pick up at the 8:30am mark. As we head into cash open price is pushing above yesterday’s high and up into the contextual pole—a market profile feature.

The economic calendar is quiet to end the week. The University of Michigan will provide us a final read of Confidence for July at 10am and Baker Hughes will tell us how many rigs they counted at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day up. This day-type has tons of directional conviction but not as much as a full-on trend day. It started with a gap down and sellers proceeded to take out Wednesday’s low before finding responsive buyers at value area high from 7/27. Buyers became initiative late in the morning and continued to take risk throughout the session.

Intermediate term we’ve bounced off the check-back to the breakout. Their challenge is sustaining this strength and not succumbing to a push back below the breakout area around 4500. Keep an eye on Nasdaq transports too because they’re back at range high—a place where I expect sellers to defend. Finally bear in mind that Monday is a new month. New months that start on Monday are statistically bullish.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for early action to give way to quiet summer trade. I will look for buyers to press the pole climb up to target 4631.75 before 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 deals with the shelf built at 4588. If sellers push down through it, look for a move to take out overnight low 4583.25 and a test of the value area high at 4570.

Hypo 3 is a full on barn burner to recapture the Apple gap down (7/21) up to 4668.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are lower heading into Thursday. The overnight session featured balanced price action with all trade occurring inside the range set yesterday. The overnight action reads normal, and heading into cash open we are seeing selling pressure.

At 8:30am we had an economic data dump which included 2^ndquarter annualized GDP stats, Personal Consumption figures, and Initial/Continuing jobless claims. The GDP data was lower than expected and showed a bit of inflation. Personal Consumption is on the rise, and jobless claims were mixed. The initial reaction to the news was selling.

Yesterday the market printed a normal variation up day while we heard the latest rate decision from the FOMC. Buyers managed to press nearly halfway up last Friday’s liquidation range before stalling out. The session print has a somewhat blunt looking high (poor high) and a relatively clean looking low (such taper!).

Intermediate term location shows price coming back to the scene of the original breakout—an action referred to as a check back by traders. The idea behind the check back is to test the conviction of the breakout by seeing if a revisit to the prices entices buyers to buck up and bid.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through the overnight low 4556.50. Look for buyers to defend around the 4550 region and two-way trade to ensue with a slight upward bias.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4450 setting up a test down to 4534.25. If buyers no show here then we continue pushing lower to test our recent value low area 4516 – 4505.25.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through overnight high 4577.75 setting up a run to 4600.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are a touch higher as we head into Wednesday’s trade. The action overnight was balanced with a slight upward bias. Price managed to go above yesterday’s high and into the lower quadrant of last Friday’s range before sellers showed up. Range and volume were normal on the session.

The big economic event today is the 2pm FOMC rate decision. No one expects them to raise the benchmark short-term interest rate for the first time since 2006. We had MBA Mortgage Apps data at 7am and selling has come into the tape since. We also have Pending Home Sales at 10am and oil/gas inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day after starting the session under selling pressure. Price briefly took out Monday’s low before finding a strong responsive bid.   The interesting trait left behind is a low VPOC—down at 4510. It means value might be lower than where price is currently trading.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is sellers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4556.75 and continue to target the overnight low 4548.50. Look for responsive buyers at 4544 then again at 4534. Then two-way trade as we wait for the afternoon FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers push up and sustain trade above Friday’s close 4563.75 setting up a run to target the overnight high 4572.75. The profile overhead is thin meaning we could see price rally well if this occurs. Look for sellers around the 4600 mark.

Hypo 3 tight trading between 4570 and 4550 until we see the FOMC minutes.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are gap up heading into Tuesday after a globex session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price managed to push up into last Friday’s range slightly and consolidate in the low-end of last week’s range.

Coming up on the economic docket we have Case-Shiller Composite 20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and Consumer Confidence at 10am. Investors are also likely looking forward to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision tomorrow afternoon.

Yesterday we started the week gap down and soon after the open we found responsive buyers. Price managed to “check back” to the scene of last week’s breakout before finding the buyers who pushed but struggled to reclaim last Friday’s range. We spent the rest of the session slow grinding lower to ultimately go neutral.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4523. From there I will look for sellers to continue lower to take out the overnight low 4515 and target the 4500 century mark. Look for buyers to defend here.

Hypo 2 sellers struggle to close the overnight gap and we push up above the overnight high 4549.25 . Look for some churn around 4553 before continuing higher to close last Friday’s gap up at 4563.75.

Hypo 3 is sellers push down through 4500 to close the open gap from 7/13 down at 4487.50.

Levels:

We’re kicking off the week pro gap down after the Nasdaq spent most of the globex session trending lower. Range and volume running hot and as we head into cash open price are hovering inside the 7/16 range.

At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders data came out better-than-expected and the reaction so far has been muted. Overall we have stabilized slightly over the last hour. Coming up today we have Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity but an otherwise empty economic docket. Keep in mind however Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision which is likely to be a high impact event. We are still pushing through earnings season too, but no major Nasdaq components are set to report today.

Last week we started strong only to end weak after Apple earnings disappointed investors Tuesday afternoon. Afterwards we went gap down Wednesday and churned around before ultimately trending lower Friday.

The overnight action pushed us down to close a 2^nd of the 5 gaps left behind during our most recent rally. The Nasdaq has been methodical about closing open gaps. With three remaining to the downside and now 2 open gaps to the upside, it’s hard to have strong directional conviction.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push right off the opening bell to target 4512.25. From there I’ll look for responsive buyers who work into the overnight inventory. Look for a half gap fill up to around 4543 then 2-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap and go lower. Push down through 4510 to target the 4500 century mark.

Hypo 3 open rejection reversal where buyers immediately step in and push aggressively higher, up through 4543 to set up a full gap fill up to 4563.75.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are a touch higher as we head into Thursday’s trade. We spent most of the session building value higher but sellers managed to defend yesterday’s range high.

At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims came in better than expected. There was little reaction to the news. We also have leading Index at 10am and natural gas storage data at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal day. Normal days are characterized as having a wide initial balance (first hour of trade) that is not breached for the remainder of the session. These day types are usually formed when a news item is released near the open. In yesterday’s trade, for example, investors were digesting the earnings from Apple. This day type shows other time frame (OTF) activity at the open but then no initiative-type OTF for the rest of the session, just local-to-local trade.

The action did manage to close the 7/16 open gap, meaning there are only 4 open gaps left below.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push in to the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4618.25. From here the overnight low becomes a target 4617 then a push down to test value area low zone 4608.50 to 4606.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade north of the key pivot at 4623 setting up a ‘pole climb’ up to 4660 and seek to target the Apple gap up at 4668.25.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4605 setting up a liquidation down through the air pocket to 4584.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are pro gap down as we head into cash open. The move began shortly after Apple earnings were released and is continuing lower as the morning kicks in. Range is abnormal but volume metrics are in line. We are trading right around the gap left open back on 7/16.

At 10am we have Existing Home Sales and at 10:30am crude/gas/distillate inventories. Texas Instruments reports earnings after the bell and will be a key driver behind a the PHLX Semiconductor Index which is threatening a rollover at a major support level.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened flat and proceeded to range extend down before quickly finding a big and two-way balanced trade ensued. The market appeared to be waiting for Apple earnings before deciding its next move.

Intermediate term, we are trading down into a confluence of prices around 4600 but the market profile is quite thin until down around 4580 range.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work the gap fill. If buyers can trade north of 4622 then look for a pole climb to ensue all the way back up to close the overnight gap up to 4668.25.

Hypo 2 is a gap-and-go down type open. Look for sellers to press into the cash market early on and trade down to 4584. Look for responsive buying here and two way trade to ensue south of 4607.

Hypo 3 half gap fill up to 4634 then roll back over to take out overnight low 4597.75.

Levels: