Nasdaq futures are coming into the week down over 200 points from Friday’s close. The overnight session has exceeded 3rd sigma stats on both range and volume meaning what we see here is an outlier-type event. Price trended lower for most of the session and is currently trading down into prices unseen since October 2014.
The economic calendar is busy this week, but today we have no economic events to consider.
Last week started with a strong up day, Tuesday marked time with a slight down drift, Wednesday was weak then pushed up to neutral and faded, Thursday and Friday we trended lower. We closed the week out trending lower, with price closing around session low.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for selling to continue. We may see buyers push into the overnight inventory. Look for sellers ahead of 4026 and continued selling. Downside targets include the 10/22/14 open gap at 3950 then the 10/20/2014 open gap at 3867.50.
Hypo 2 buyers step in hard. Push up through 4026. Look for sellers around 4073. If buyers can blow through here then a pole climb up to 4154.
Hypo 3 tight churn on the open with a slight downward skew.
Levels:
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ONR was double the ONR from 10/15 and 10/16. ONV also very elevated compared to the Oct bottom. Not sure how to interpret the extreme range and volume yet but interesting. Really interesting looking shelf on the NQ daily at 3790 or so.
I see that too. To me the extreme action just tells you these are outlier conditions and to play safe and not be surprised if you normal game plan gets knocked around. Smaller size, wider targets and stops
several long term sentiment gauges I monitor have surpassed the most recent highs seen in 2011. Hard to believe this is happening with no US recession in sight based on currently available data.
It is totally happening, we are seeing it with our own eyes. The key is not painting it with our own perspective and remaining objective as best we can.
NYSE DECL close to pegging its upper BB. ADVN pretty flat. Looking for DECL to rollover from there. Cumulative tick went positive.
thanks for sharing your thoughts