NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a big pro gap down. The session spent a few hours balanced before 3am when the selling came in and price began trending lower. Sellers managed to push us well below Monday’s close and all of last week’s range. As we head into cash open price is bouncing along the lower ATR band. Both range and volume are extreme 3^rd sigma.

The economic calendar is still light. At 9am we have House Price Index following yesterday’s miss in Existing Home Sales.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The market opened gap up, sellers worked the weekend gap closed to the tick (4326.75) before sellers stepped up. Price was unable to take out last Friday’s high before we faded lower and traversed the entire range. Then we faded back up to the mean by end of day. Monday was the 3^rd consecutive neutral day as higher time frame participants continue to push the NASDAQ around.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work a gap-and-go lower. There are some open gaps—one at 4228.25 and another at 4194 that are likely to behave as magnets. There is a ledge/weak low around 4227 which price may spill over causing an acceleration down to the 4200 zone.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory. Work up to 4280 but struggle to recapture Monday’s range low 4286.50 before sellers step back in and take out overnight low 4247.25. Look for a move to target the open gap at 4228.25 and a test, but failure to spill over the 4227 ledge before 2-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 vigorous buying early on, take back Monday’s range low 4286.50 early setting up a full gap fill up to target 4310 before 2 way trade ensues.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures traded a wide but not extreme range overnight on elevated but normal volume.  Price managed to exceed Friday’s low, briefly, before pushing back into range and balancing.  Around 4am aggressive buying pushed in and worked price into the upper quad of Friday’s range before finding sellers and balancing out.  We are headed into the open with price hovering around pro gap territory.

This week’s economic calendar is relatively light compared to last week.  On the docket for today is Existing Home Sales at 10am.

Last week price worked higher all week into Thursday afternoon’s FOMC rate decision.  When The Fed delayed the rate hike investors reacted by spiking price higher.  By the end of the day the market rolled over and closed near session low.  Friday opened gap down and churned sideways.  The result was a flat-to-up market on the week.  Friday printed a neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory.  Look for sellers to close the overnight gap down to 4326.75.  Then expect price to overshoot the gap fill and test down to 4308.50 before buyers step up and two way trade ensues.  Then look for sellers to target a test below overnight low 4297.75.

Hypo 2 sellers struggle to close overnight gap down to 4326.50.  Instead buyers defend around 4338 and continue working higher.  Look for a test above overnight high 4354.50 and a buyer target Thursday’s open gap up at 4366.25.

Hypo 3 gap and go up.  Take out overnight high 4354.50 early and set up the gap fill up to 4366.25.  After some churn price continues higher to target 4378.50.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are pushing lower heading into September OPEX day, a quad witching day. The session was balanced mostly until about 6am when a wave of selling pushed through. Price managed to push down through Wednesday’s range and most of Tuesday’s range to put the index back to unchanged on the week. Volume is elevated but not extreme while range is in extreme territory.

On the economic calendar, we have Leading Indicators at 10am, Household Change in Net Worth at 12pm, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down session. The morning started out gap down and price slowly drifted higher ahead of the FOMC rate decision. 3^rd reaction analysis yielded the buy signal and soon after price was pushing up. Just beyond the weekly ATR band sellers stepped in. We then traversed the entire daily range to close near the low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory. Look for a move up to 4361.25 before sellers come in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, take out overnight low 4318. Look for responsive buyers down at 4308 otherwise sellers move to target 4299 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push hard, down through 4288, setting up a liquidation down to 4258.25.

Hypo 4 full gap fill trade up to 4366.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are trading down as we head into Thursday. The overnight session traded a tight range on abnormally low volume. This volume may be skewed as some people are still trading the September contract. Price exceeded yesterday’s high by 3 ticks before falling back into range and working through Wednesday’s upper quadrant for the duration of the session. At 8:30am Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out slightly better than expectations. The initial reaction is somewhat muted.

Also on the docket today we have the Philadelphia Fed at 10am and the FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm.

Yesterday we opened flat and had a classic open auction in range. Sellers pushed about 1/3 into Tuesday’s range before the market found responsive buyers. From there we spent the rest of the morning working higher. Sellers worked price back to the mid early in the afternoon before buyers worked price back to the high to end the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the tape. Look for a push down to 4362.50. Then look for buyers here and two way trade to ensue ahead of the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 2 the market stays firm and works higher to take out overnight high 4383 and continue exploring higher. Look for sellers to show up around 4415.50.

Hypo 3 sellers push a bit deeper, down though 4362.50 and 4359 setting up a move to target 4352.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures were flat heading into today’s session. Action overnight was balanced and contained inside yesterday’s upper quadrant. Volume and range were normal for a globex session. At 8:30am CPI data came out in line with expectations and created no reaction.

The big economic data looms for tomorrow when we shall hear the Fed rate decision. Other items for today include NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am and Net Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day. It was stronger than any hypo I wrote for the day, and price managed to trade right up to the 8/20 open gap at 4363.50 before finding sellers and rolling over.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for seller to test down to the overnight low 4335. Look for responsive sellers at 4330 and two way trade to ensue. Buyers may want to work up above yesterday high 4364 and see if there is any order flow above.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through 4330 opening up a move down to 4307.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are flat headed into Tuesday. The overnight session was normal—normal range and volume. Price managed to briefly push below yesterday’s session low before finding buyers and heading back into a well-established balance zone. At 8:30am the Advanced Retail Sales came in a bit below expectations. The initial reaction is buying.]

Also on the economic calendar today we have Industrial/Manufacturing Production at 9:15am and Business Inventories at 10am. These early events ought to lend a certain choppiness to opening trade.

Yesterday we came into the week with a decent size gap up [not quite pro gap] and sellers quickly faded it. The opening swing was an open test drive down. Sellers managed to push the range extension but not much initiative selling was seen. Instead we formed the classic long liquidation b-shaped profile.

Heading into today however, my primary expectation is for sellers to continue probing lower. Look for sellers to work down and target the overnight low 4280. This opens the market up for a move down to 4258. Look for responsive buyers here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 bulls push up into yesterday’s single prints and work us higher. Look or a new weekly high and responsive sellers up at 4333 putting us into 2-way trade.

Hypo 3 churn between 4307.50 and 4288.75 which ultimately gives way to a break of overnight high 4314 but barely before we resume the churn.

In essence, not expecting much directional movement ahead of Thursday’s FOMC rate decision. Levels:

Nasdaq futures are priced to gap up into the week. The overnight session was balanced mostly and traded above Friday’s range mostly. Price managed to push up near last week’s high before finding sellers and transitioning into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is open today. Investors have a major news item on the horizon this week—Thursday afternoon’s FOMC rate decision. The primary expectation is for rates to rise 25 basis points.

Friday the market printed a normal variation up after opening slightly gap down. It was an inside day, meaning the range was contained within Thursday’s range, which was nearly contained inside of the Wednesday range. Essentially last week was three days of compression after sellers ended the 10-day streak of neutral prints.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4314. Look for sellers to continue working lower to target the overnight low 4305.25 then the 4300 century mark. Expect responsive buyers at 4298 then two way trade ensues below 4333.50.

Hypo 2 buyers work a gap-and-go higher. Price probes up above the overnight high 4346.50. Look for buyers to test above last week’s high 4352.25 to close the open gap up at 4363.50. Then look for sellers to step in and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures traded an elevated range overnight but price managed to stick inside Thursday’s high and low throughout the session. Volume metrics will be screwy for the next 5 trading sessions because some volume stays behind and trades the September contract while the majority rolls on to trading the December contract. The overall structure of the globex session is balanced with a slight downward skew.

We have a few medium impact economic events today. At 10am we shall hear the primary September Confidence read from University of Michigan. At 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count is out. At 2pm the Monthly Budget Statement will be released.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. Price opened just below Wednesday’s low and buyers quickly stepped in to fill the overnight gap. Hypo 3 yesterday called for strong buyers to push well up into Wednesday’s range and that was what transpired. Sellers responded to the higher prices and knocked us back down to the session mid before we ended the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for price to try and work lower. Look for sellers to struggle taking out overnight low 4249 setting up 2-way trade that works closed the overnight gap up to 4284.25.

Hypo 2 look for sellers to target the overnight low 4249 setting up a move for the ledge at 4226. This is a key test zone and if we go below it look for price to spill over and trade down to 4208.

Hypo 3 buyers firm up and work higher to target overnight high 4305.75 and test up above yesterday’s high 4318.50.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are pro gap up for the second consecutive day of our holiday shortened week. Price trended higher overnight, pushing into the bottom quad of the 8/20 range before finding any sellers. Range is extreme but volume is only elevated—which is typically the behavior we see on the way up.

The only economic event was MBA Mortgage Applications at 7am. There is also an Apple event scheduled for today which tends to whip the overall market around a bit.

Yesterday, and I can’t make this up, we printed the 10^th consecutive neutral day. It was a big one too. Actually, it was a neutral extreme day because we closed near session high. This meant bulls had strong directional conviction to hold overnight.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for bulls to probe up above overnight high 4369.50 and see what sort of order flow they find. If sellers no show then it’s pretty thin up to 4436 (crazy, I know). Look for a move up the thin print then responsive sellers around 4436.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and test down to 4318.50 where responsive buyers defend and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers step in heavy, close the overnight gap down to 4298.75 and start us on our path back through the near term range.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are priced to gap up into the holiday shortened week. The globex session went live at 6pm yesterday and from the onset price worked higher. Around 2:15am the rally accelerated and about 2 hours later price was around 60 points higher. Both range and volume and extreme 3^rd sigma.

The economic calendar is quiet this week. Today we have Labor Market Conditions at 10am and Consumer Credit at 3pm. Both are relatively low impact events.

Friday we printed a big gap down neutral day. It was the 9^th consecutive neutral day. Price worked lower off the gap down to close the open gap left behind on 9/1. From there buyers responded and by the end of the session price was trading near the high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test down to 4233.25. From there look for responsive buyers to step in and work at targeting overnight high 4279.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go but stall out at 4290 before rolling over and two way trade ensues north of 4155.

Hypo 3 aggressive gap and go trade higher, take out 4290 early and continue higher to target 4318.50.

Levels: