Nadaq futures are down coming into Thursday after printing an abnormal session overnight.  News flow accelerated overnight as pundits generously offered reasons for market moves.  The overnight range is 51.5 points thus far, well beyond the second sigma threshold on elevated volume.  During globex price briefly pushed up to about the midpoint of yesterday before rolling over and taking out yesterday’s low and pressing deep into last week’s range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out and the initial reaction is buying.

There’s a big data dump scheduled for 10am including Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators, and the Philadelphia Fed.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day started gap down outside of Tuesday’s range and pushed lower before responsive buyers showed up.  Post FOMC minutes buyers turned initiative and close the overnight gap up to 4543.25 then dried up and selling back to the mean ensued.

Neutral days are sessions where the high and low of the first hour of trade (initial balance) are breached.  They suggest higher time frame posturing and often occur at/near inflection points.  This one occurred in the middle of the range so it is difficult to gain an inflection point insight from it.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyer to push into the overnight inventory.  Look for them to struggle to close the gap up at 4503.75 then sellers resume exploring lower.  Sellers target overnight low 4461.50.  Buyers need to defend 4456 otherwise look for a test below last Wednesday’s low at 4431.25.  Stretch target is 4400 century mark.

Hypo 2 sellers work in early buy struggle to capture 4456.  Responsive buyers push the overnight gap up to 4503.75 shut then set their sights on overnight high 4513.  Look for responsive sellers around 4520.

Hypo 3, chop and erosion.  Tight range trade in bottom quad of yesterday’s range with a slight downward bias.  Sellers capped at 4440 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are down a bit heading into Wednesday’s trade after an interesting overnight session. US markets followed China’s Shanghai Composite to an extent. Their index moved fast, falling more than 5% before reversing on rumors the People’s Bank of China could announce a 50-basis-point rate cut. Our session featured a slightly elevated range on normal volume. Price managed to push up above Tuesday’s mid briefly before rolling over and pushing deep into Monday’s trend day. Since then we are off the lows and the structure is balanced overall.

At 7am we had MBA Mortgage Applications and saw no reaction from the market. At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data was out and so far also is seeing a muted response. At 10:30am we have the weekly crude/gas/distillate inventory reports. However, investors are all eyes on The Fed who this afternoon (2pm ) will release Minutes from their July 28^th-29^th meeting. Participants will be parsing the language for any clues as to whether September will bring a rate hike.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The session was slow with a slight downward drift and methodical. Buyers pushed into the overnight inventory but were unable to close the open gap from Monday before sellers stepped in. Sellers then worked down to test the value area high zones of the well-established value area that was below.

Heading into today, we are trading right at the VPOC of the well-established value area. My primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4543.25. From there look for them to continue higher but stall ahead of overnight high 4552.25 and roll over. Then look for sellers to work down to 4511.50 then 4505.50.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower off the open, push down into 4505.75 and exceed it briefly before responsive buyers step in and two-way trade ensues.

These two hypos are before the FOMC minutes. I expect the morning shuffle then action to quiet down as we enter wait-and-see mode. Then I will use 3^rd reaction analysis to assess direction into the weekend.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are indicate slightly lower prices heading into Tuesday’s open. The overnight session featured and early push above Monday’s high print 4567.75 and up to the value area high established 8/10 before responsive sellers arrived and rolled the session over. The rest of the evening was spent working lower.

At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits were released. The initial reaction to the data is buying. Investors will starting thinking about tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC minutes soon and this may cause us to enter a holding pattern.

Yesterday we printed what resembles a triple distribution trend day. The directional price action was not vigorous enough to classify the day as a bona fide trend day, but still a high conviction day. Buyers managed to close the open gap from 8/10 at the end of the session. Expectation was to see the session high exceeded, if only by a tick, today. The question now is whether the market profile trend day rule was satisfied overnight, of in instead we will revisit the high again soon.

Aside from last Tuesday, Tuesday has been a quiet day in recent history. Therefore, heading into today’s session, my primary expectation is for a slow session. Look for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and work higher. I am bearish however, thus I expect buyers to struggle to fill the overnight gap and price to roll over. There is a major value area below that I expect to behave like a magnet. Look for sellers to take out the overnight low then responsive buying from 4544.25 to 4535.

Hypo 2 buyers close the overnight gap 4564.75 and set their targets on overnight high 4573.50. Look for a continuation move up to 4592.75 then responsive sellers step in.

Hypo 3, liquidation takes hold and sellers push down to the VPOC at 4517.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are priced to start the week down a touch. The overnight session featured normal volume and range and printed a balanced market profile. Looking it a bit more closely at the auction shows a few interesting events. Price pushed higher initially, right up to where the surprise Thursday afternoon sellers showed up. Responsive selling was found again in the 4545 range. Price action is interesting to with the entire overnight session resembling a head and shoulders pattern.

The week kicks off with two low-impact economic events. At 10am the NAHB Housing Market Index data is due out, and at 4pm the Net Long-term TIC flows. Investors will soon shift their attention to Wednesday afternoon when the FOMC will release the minutes from their July 28^th meeting.

Last week index traders were taken for a wild ride. Price started the week with a big gap up and buying pressure most of Monday. Toward the afternoon the market showed signs of rolling over and Tuesday and Wednesday morning featured hard selling. By lunch Wednesday sellers dried up and in their wake came buyers who pushed us back through the range and closed a major gap. Thursday and Friday were grinder sessions.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to work back into the tape. Look for sellers to take out overnight low and target 4468.25. Look for buyers in this area and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4532.25. Look for buyers to continue working higher and take out overnight high 4546.25 to target 4572. Stretch target on the upside is the open gap at 4585.75.

Hypo 3 buyers sustain above 4500 and two way trade ensues south of 4540.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are down slightly as we head into cash open. The session was mostly balanced until at attempt higher was made early this morning. Said attempt stalled before the midpoint from Thursday and rolled hard. Price spent the next hour pushing lower by about 25 points. Thursday session low was breached in the process and now price is grinded along below yesterday’s range.

Today is the busiest economic event day after a quiet week. We have Industrial/Manufacturing Production data at 9:15am followed by the preliminary August confidence read from University of Michigan. Then at 1:00pm the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday was a grind of a session. Sellers made an early attempt down into Wednesday’s neutral extreme print but were contained to the upper quadrant of the session. From there buyers began methodically grinding price higher for nearly the entire session, slowly. In the final hour of trade liquidity was low and a seller managed to push price back down near session low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for early excitement to give way to slow, summer Friday grind trading. Look for sellers to take out overnight low 4501.25 and test to 4491 before buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4517. They target overnight high 4528.50 and continue pushing up to 4540.75 before 2 way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push a bit more aggressive at target 4460.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are coming into the session up after a slightly abnormal session. Price managed to push well above yesterday’s high and deep into the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range before finding responsive selling. The session started out a bit soft but by the evening price was grinding higher.

At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data printed in line with expectations. Initial and Continuing jobless claims data was out at the same time and slightly worse than expected. Also on the agenda today we have Business Inventories at 10am and Natural Gas storage stats at 10:30am.

Yesterday we started out with a big gap down and the day became even bigger. After some fast selling to start the day, selling that pushed down below bracket low, price reversed. By the early afternoon we were neutral and by session end we closed the overnight gap and then some to print a neutral extreme day. This day-type carries the 3^rd most directional conviction behind trend day and double distribution trend day. It also left behind a big excess low—event like—something I was looking for this week.

Heading into today my primary hypothesis to see sellers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap down to 4533.25. From there I will look for them to target overnight low 4516 and push to test the 4500 century mark. Look for responsive buyers at 4494.25.

Hypo 2 sellers struggle and fail to close the overnight gap 4533.25 and we continue exploring higher prices. There’s an open gap up at 4565.75 from Tuesday which is likely to attract price. If that closes, look for a continued move up and responsive sellers around 4571.50.

Hypo 3 is blastoff. Take out the Tuesday gap early 4565.75. Press and test above Tuesday’s high 4580, and make haste to 4600.

Levels:

Action in the globex session picked up, and for the first time since the weakness began we are seeing abnormal (2^nd sigma) range and volume.  Price pushed higher initially overnight but stalled at yesterday’s mid.  From there we saw a 43.25 point rotation lower then a continued grind lower.  Price pushed the ATR low and found buyers just ahead of the major composite VPOC.

The economic calendar is features the crude oil/distillate inventory data at 10:30am followed by a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day down.  Sellers managed to close the weekend gap down to 4520 affirming the idea that weekend gaps are contrarian events this year.  From there sellers continued pushing into last Friday’s range.  The tape was slow and methodical.  We closed out the session with a bit of a ramp.

Heading into today, my primary hypothesis is for sellers to gap-and-go lower.  Look for them to target the 7/10 range gap at 4426.50.  If they can breach this level then look for a continued move to fully close the gap down to 4409.  Use the 4400 century mark as a stretch target.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory but fail to reclaim yesterday’s range low 4485.50.  Price rolls over and works lower to take out overnight low 4454.25 and kiss the CVPOC at 4450 before 2 way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers reclaim Tuesday low 4485.50 and close the overnight gap up to 4511.  Look for a continued move to target overnight high 4525.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are pricing a gap down heading into cash open Tuesday. The globex session started out strong after news that Google will restructure their organization sent share prices soaring. After briefly taking out Monday’s session high, Nasdaq price rolled over and traversed the entire range. We are near session lows on slightly elevated range and volume.

The economic calendar is quiet today. At 10:00am we will hear Wholesale Inventories.

We started the week with a sizable gap up. Buyers showed up at the open and drove price higher but even before lunchtime we could see active responsive selling on the tape. Bulls briefly managed to turn initiative and extend price higher, right up into the weekly ATR bracket before sellers again faded prices.

The S&P 500 led the way Monday and overall breadth was decent. If the S&P continues to show relative strength it would be an overall positive for the market.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push lower from the gap down. Look for a move to close the weekend gap at 4520. This area will be pivotal, but I expect sellers to continue pushing below it and work down to target the 4500 century mark. Look for responsive buyers from 4496 – 4484.75.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and work the overnight gap fill up to 4565.75. There is a strong VPOC here that quite easily could behave as a magnet. Look for sellers to defend at 4572 and price to roll back over.

Hypo 3 buyers push up through 4572 and work toward hitting the 4600 century mark.

Hypo 4, full on liquidation. Sellers push down through 4500 early setting up a test of last Friday’s low. Target 4468 with a stretch target of 4462.25.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures printed a slightly abnormal range overnight while steadily pushing higher. Volume metrics are running normally while price is set to open in a slippery zone. As we approach cash open, the market is continuing to explore higher in search of sellers.

The economic calendar is quiet for most of the week. Today we shall hear from Fed’s Lockart who is talking both at 9am and 12:25pm—though it may not show much impact on the tape. We also have the Labor Market Conditions Index Change at 10am.

After Wednesday, we spent most of last week pushing lower. Buyers stepped in shortly after we closed the open gap from 7/13 affirming this market’s “no gap left behind” policy. In accordance with this policy, it is my duty to report that two gaps are open below and one above.

Price ramped higher Friday afternoon after spending most of the morning working lower. The afternoon rally was impressive, nearly 40 Nasdaq points, and material enough to switch the short-term intention of the marketplace.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory. The open location is a fast zone, inside single prints left behind last Thursday so I expect there will be big rotations to wrangle with early on. Look for sellers to check down to 4534.75. If they can take this levels then continue lower to target overnight low 4512.75 then a test of Friday’s low 4480.50. Stretch target is 4468.50.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go up, climbing the pole. Look for sellers to defend from 4587.50 to 4593 and price to roll over and head lower.

Hypo 3 buyers sustain price up near 4590 setting up a move to the 4600 century mark.

Levels:

Nasdaq futures are flat heading into cash open here in the USA. The session featured a slightly elevated range taking place on a normal amount of volume. Price managed to briefly test below yesterday’s RTH low before reversing and thrusting higher to put us back to unchanged.

At 8:30am Non-Farm payroll data came in just a touch lower than expectations but when paired with revisions it has solidified many a pundits view that The Fed will raise rates (liftoff) in September. Also on the docket today we have the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm and Consumer Credit at 3p,.

Yesterday we printed what looked like a trend day down. It looked like this until New York lunchtime when other timeframe (OTF) participation turned off and 2-way (local) trade ensued. Despite my best attempt to label yesterday’s profile print within the confines of Mind Over Market logic, it makes sense to keep an open mind that not every instance in life can be labeled. Thus, it was a trend day that morphed into a long tailed lowercase letter-b, aka liquidation, a temporary phenomenon.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for bulls to attempt the pole climb. They will first need to target and exceed overnight high 4533.75. From there they aren’t likely to find much resistance until way up at 4587.50.

Hypo 2 is buyers struggle and cannot take out overnight high 4533.75 and we roll over and continue probing lower. The book is thick around 4513 but if bears can push down through here I will be looking to target the 7/13 open gap down at 4487.50.

Hypo 3 the morning excitement fizzles into typical summer Friday trade and a 2 way grind takes hold between 4550 and 4510.

Levels: