Happy Peaster: Free Exodus Strategy Session for All

I just filed the Exodus (Sunday) strategy session about 36 hours later than normal, which means it’s a day late and maybe a dollar short we don’t know—but being able to sit down at my terminal and rip through a handful of screens has me feeling prepared for what has all the markings of an eventful week.

TSLA, MSFT, FB, AMZN, and INTC are set to report earnings.  These are our benevolent tech overlords.  How the report will tell the story.  The NASDAQ is out in front, taking its shot at sustaining all-time highs.  The right blend of good earnings could keep the tech-heavy NASDAQ on its upward trajectory.  The most bullish behavior would be, of course, if all these tech companies report below expectations and forecast weak yet we still rally.  Recall the reaction grid:

negative data, positive reaction – strong bullish

neutral data, positive reaction – medium bullish

positive data, positive reaction – bullish

negative data, negative reaction – bearish

neutral data, negative reaction – medium bearish

positive data, negative reaction – strong bearish

Trading is not rocket science.  It is a few simple tactics executed well.  Balance and discovery. Statistical probabilities. Risk management.  Over and over again.

Anyways this is becoming a fatigued ramble.  Here is the Exodus Strategy Session in it’s entirely, enjoy.

Exodus members, I am having difficulty uploading the 231st edition of Strategy Session into Exodus.  Hopefully I will have the issue resolved by next week.  In the meantime, if you would like to read the Strategy Session, it is published below in entirety.  Thank you.

Exodus Strategy Session: 04/22/19 – 04/26/19

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.38, medium bull*.  Calm drift until Wednesday evening, then watching for big tech earnings MSFT, FB, and TSLA to put a direction to the tape into the second half of the week.  Watch for Thursday afternoon earnings from AMZN and INTC to either affirm or conflict the direction established Wednesday evening-thru-Thursday.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [e(RCS)] bullish bias signal triggered, see Section IV

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

NADSAQ leads a charge higher, Russell lags.  Dow and S&P not taking out their respective all-time highs alongside the NASDAQ.

The performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Odd mixed bag with Healthcare taking a hard hit.  Staples leading the way.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Looking closer we see the broad weakness in Healthcare, along with precious metals.

bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Catching up using Exodus

Being able to log into Exodus a day later than the Strategy Session is normally published and having the ability to work back a day into the data is a huge factor in my feeling confident in my ability to interpret the new information we’re set to receive.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently June 2019) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Compression Watch: Semis really matter now

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports found the upper bracket.  Likely next move is back down through value.  The longer we linger near bracket high, the more likely it becomes that we enter a fresh leg of discovery up.

See below:

The semiconductor index came into some measured move targets (Fib extensions) and found sellers at the logical level.  However, one day of selling does not negate the clear discovery mode this index is in.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias Model: extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

Bias model bullish for a fourth consecutive week after being neutral four weeks back week and bullish the three week’s prior.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It is not the man who has too little, but the man who craves more that is poor.”  – Seneca

Trade simple, with purpose

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on extreme volume.  Price pushed lower overnight, discovering a bid ahead of the Tuesday low before forming a sharp reversal and trading back into the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am advance retail sales data and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Thursday midpoint.

We have a busy economic calendar today ahead of a four day holiday weekend.  US markets will be closed Friday in Observation of Good Friday and closed again Monday in observation of Easter.  At 9:45 we’ll hear the Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI data, at 10am leading index and business inventories, and at 11:30am both 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and push to new all-time highs before sellers stepped in and worked the overnight gap fil.  We then chopping along the unchanged level for the rest of the day with sellers defending the midpoint and buyers defending the unchanged mark.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press off the open, taking out overnight high 7708.50 and sustaining trade above it to set up a probe above all-time high 7733.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the small overnight gap to fill down to 7689.  Look for sellers to trade down through overnight low 7660.25 to target the open gap at 7648.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7624 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, beginning to trend higher around 8pm New York and continuing to do so up until now.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have wholesale inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and the beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday the market printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap up and two-way open auction that eventually gave way to a small push higher.  Sellers stepped in just ahead of the 7700 century mark and we went into a tight balance.  Volatility during settlement after Netflix and IBM earnings were released caused a spike that rapidly took the market range extension down, then range extension up, before ultimately closing near the midpoint.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through all-time hgih 7728.75.  Open air.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7700 before finding a responsive bid (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to the close) before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down to 7680.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price worked higher overnight, escaping a 5-day old value area by balancing for a bit along the Monday high then making another exploration higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at levels unseen since October 3rd of last year.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, then API crude oil inventories at 4:30pm.

Earnings season officially gets started today after market close when both IBM and NFLX report earnings.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The week began flat.  After a brief 2-way auction at the open, price drove lower, trading down through the Thursday low before discovering a strong responsive bid.  Buyers came to terms with the bottom-end of our daily mid for a few hours before continuing their campaign higher.  We ended the day near session high, up a few point on the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap down at 7648.50.  Sellers cannot take out overnight low.  Instead we work higher to 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down through overnight low 7644.75 setting up a move to target 7624 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price marked time overnight, holding to less than a 20-point range.  Price briefly poked beyond Friday’s high for a bit, and and we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3-and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week was a slow drift.  Price steadily worked higher, slowly, advancing in a methodical auction.  Along the way the Dow started to lag behind.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and probe up beyond the weekly high.  This introduced some selling into the tape.  Said sellers worked lower, nearly closing the gap before finding responsive buyers who slowly campaigned price higher for the rest of the day.  They did not, however, press the market neutral.  And while the gap did not officially close, given the nature of NASDAQ futures, stopping just 1.50 point ahead of it is sufficient enough for me to consider the gap ‘filled’.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7657 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7665.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7697, likely tagging the 7700 century mark, before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7638.25 setting up a move to target the 7600 century mark.  Look for buyers down at the open gap at 7593.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Yesterday I went to the funeral of a skate park in Detroit that was loved by kids in the neighborhood.  The basketball courts and skate ramps will be cleared to make way for another high-end condominium development.  I enjoy seeing the final flickers of my anarchic city sparkle away, especially when the youths start lighting things on fire.  A bittersweet finale to a different era.  Urban centers nationwide are undergoing a major transition.  If we love our neighborhoods then we need find a way to take back the land before another capricious development claims another corner.

Not much else for us to discuss heading into week three (option expiration) of the second quarter.  Earnings season is heating up; keep an eye on the futures Tuesday afternoon when both IBM and Netflix report.  In case you missed it, the new Our Planet on Netflix is beautiful, they even put David Attenborough on the track.  Basically Netflix produced a Planet Earth which is ballin’.

What else? What else…ah yes the models.  The models are bullish again lads.  Real bullish.  There are undercurrents of selling which have me cautious, but then there’s the semiconductor index back up at all-time highs.  The semiconductor index has lead the broad indices for the last few years.  So if semis are bullish, and the model is bullish, then I have to shelf those bearish undercurrents and keep pressing my longs.

Transitions, nature documentaries, bullish five day forecasts.  What do all these things have in common?

Nothing, and that’s fine, I just needed to unload what few thoughts were left in my otherwise pretty clear mind.

Thanks.

Exodus members, the 230th edition of strategy session is live, go check it out!

https://youtu.be/8IDmv0MoxR8

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, making a steady campaign higher after briefly probing below the Thursday low.  The move higher was accented by Chinese economic data, and as we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Thursday high.

On the economic calendar today we have the primary April reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a slight gap up beyond the Wednesday high that sellers quickly worked into.  Within 30 minutes of the cash open, price had taken out overnight low and discovered a responsive bid.  Sellers defended a checkback to the midpoint and made a second, initiative move lower which tagged the Wednesday naked VPOC at 7606.25 before buyers stepped in and drifted price a bit higher into the close.  We ended the day below session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7665 to set up a move to target 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7616.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 7601.50 to close the gap at 7593.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7588.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the Wednesday high before settling into balance.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4-and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up in range.  Sellers were unable to resolve the overnight gap, instead we began to campaign higher, closing the Monday gap before drifting back down to the daily mid before the 2pm FOMC minutes.  Third reaction after the FOMC minutes was up and we spent the rest of the day auctioning higher, eventually closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 7624.50 setting up a move to target 7615 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to tag the 7600 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7588.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 7661 setting up a move to close the open gap at 7665.50 before pausing, building steam then making a second thrust higher to tag the 7700 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Tuesday low last night before popping back up through the daily midpoint.  At 8:30am consumer price index data came out below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right along the mid.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-year note auction at 1pm, and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down in range.  After an opening two-way auction, buyers began to work into the gap but were unable to completely fill it.  Instead, shortly after going range extension up the market ran into sellers.  Two more attempts were made to work higher before sellers pressed down through the entire daily range and sent us neutral.   Late in the day we worked back up off the lows.

Neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7612.75 to target the open gap at 7624.25.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7593.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7575.75.  Look for buyers down at 7556.75, then look for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a liquidation, trading down to the open gap at 7518.75.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly exceeding the Monday high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Monday’s mid.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11am, and a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Said drive lost its steam after closing the 04/04 open gap nearly to the tick.  From then onward the market auctioned higher, encountering some sellers at the overnight gap zone before rebuilding strength and making a second, sustained push into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7624.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7633.75.  Look for sellers up at 7660 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7599.25 setting up a move to target 7556 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to the open gap at 7665.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: