NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price worked higher overnight, escaping a 5-day old value area by balancing for a bit along the Monday high then making another exploration higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at levels unseen since October 3rd of last year.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, then API crude oil inventories at 4:30pm.

Earnings season officially gets started today after market close when both IBM and NFLX report earnings.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The week began flat.  After a brief 2-way auction at the open, price drove lower, trading down through the Thursday low before discovering a strong responsive bid.  Buyers came to terms with the bottom-end of our daily mid for a few hours before continuing their campaign higher.  We ended the day near session high, up a few point on the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap down at 7648.50.  Sellers cannot take out overnight low.  Instead we work higher to 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down through overnight low 7644.75 setting up a move to target 7624 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price marked time overnight, holding to less than a 20-point range.  Price briefly poked beyond Friday’s high for a bit, and and we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3-and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week was a slow drift.  Price steadily worked higher, slowly, advancing in a methodical auction.  Along the way the Dow started to lag behind.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and probe up beyond the weekly high.  This introduced some selling into the tape.  Said sellers worked lower, nearly closing the gap before finding responsive buyers who slowly campaigned price higher for the rest of the day.  They did not, however, press the market neutral.  And while the gap did not officially close, given the nature of NASDAQ futures, stopping just 1.50 point ahead of it is sufficient enough for me to consider the gap ‘filled’.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7657 setting up a move to target the open gap at 7665.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7697, likely tagging the 7700 century mark, before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7638.25 setting up a move to target the 7600 century mark.  Look for buyers down at the open gap at 7593.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, making a steady campaign higher after briefly probing below the Thursday low.  The move higher was accented by Chinese economic data, and as we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Thursday high.

On the economic calendar today we have the primary April reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a slight gap up beyond the Wednesday high that sellers quickly worked into.  Within 30 minutes of the cash open, price had taken out overnight low and discovered a responsive bid.  Sellers defended a checkback to the midpoint and made a second, initiative move lower which tagged the Wednesday naked VPOC at 7606.25 before buyers stepped in and drifted price a bit higher into the close.  We ended the day below session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7665 to set up a move to target 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7616.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 7601.50 to close the gap at 7593.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7588.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Tuesday low last night before popping back up through the daily midpoint.  At 8:30am consumer price index data came out below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right along the mid.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-year note auction at 1pm, and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down in range.  After an opening two-way auction, buyers began to work into the gap but were unable to completely fill it.  Instead, shortly after going range extension up the market ran into sellers.  Two more attempts were made to work higher before sellers pressed down through the entire daily range and sent us neutral.   Late in the day we worked back up off the lows.

Neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 7612.75 to target the open gap at 7624.25.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7593.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7575.75.  Look for buyers down at 7556.75, then look for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a liquidation, trading down to the open gap at 7518.75.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly exceeding the Monday high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Monday’s mid.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11am, and a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Said drive lost its steam after closing the 04/04 open gap nearly to the tick.  From then onward the market auctioned higher, encountering some sellers at the overnight gap zone before rebuilding strength and making a second, sustained push into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7624.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7633.75.  Look for sellers up at 7660 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7599.25 setting up a move to target 7556 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to the open gap at 7665.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked up through last week’s highs briefly before falling back down into Friday’s range.  The nature of the move suggests a mini failed auction to the upside.  7600 is a key battleground for sellers as it marks where the aggressive selling began late last year as we ended Q3.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below last Friday’s midpoint, about 10 points below 7600.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began strong.  Unexpectedly strong economic data from China eased worries that the world’s second largest economy was leading us into a global recession.  The data put a strong big into the markets early Monday morning.  Buyers drove higher off the gap up clean through Wednesday afternoon before discovering strong responsive sellers.  The selling continued through Thursday afternoon before buyers again stepped and worked price higher.  Most of the indices finished the week at-or-near their highs.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up, inside the prior day range.  Sellers were unable to close the gap during an early two-way auction.  Instead we held a tight range above the daily mid for most of the day before finally going range extension up near the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7605.75. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7619.75.  This sets up a move to target 7660 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers trade down through overnight low 7585.50 setting up a move to target 7556.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 7556.75 setting up a move to close the open gap at 7518.745 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up into the 10/4 range (a liquidation day) before forming a p-shaped balance profile.  This profile shape is often indicative of a short squeeze.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the overnight high, around the midpoint of the 10/4 liquidation day.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap up that was resolved during opening trade.  Sellers were unable to break down through the upper quad of Monday’s range before buyers stepped in.  From then onward, it was a slow ascent higher until the very end of the session when some responsive selling stepped in.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to tag 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7600 setting up a move to close the open gap at 7665.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7518.75.  Sellers continue lower from here, working down through overnight low 7513.25.  Look for buyers down at 7509 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price held Monday’s upper quad overnight before working higher.  At 8:30am durable goods orders came in below expectations.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near the 3/22 (two Friday’s back) highs.

There are no other important economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap up after strong economic data came out of China Sunday night.  Sellers initially pushed price lower off the open but were unable to regain last week’s high, the 3/26 high was rejected by buyers before the first hour of trade completed.  We then began to campaign higher, trending slowly upward for the rest of the session, with the volume profile marked by value building then ascending higher.

Double distribution trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7497.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7483.75.  Look for buyers down at 7464.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 7415 and close the gap at 7410.50.  Look for buyers down at 7400 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7511.75 setting up a move to close the swing high gap at 7535.  Look for sellers up at 7538.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into April 1st, the first day of Q2, gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price went gap up into the Globex session Sunday evening on the heels of strong economic data from China:

China PMI was a huge beat…everyone looks at that as a potential bottom forming in the global slowdown narrative..US futures opening gap up should have been no surprise

— ??? ?️ (@chigrl) March 31, 2019

At 8:30am advance retail sales data came out below expectations and knocked futures off their session high.  As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of the 3/22 range (two Friday’s back).

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing, construction spending, and business inventories at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week marked time.  Indices were weak to early on then finished out strong.  The Russell was bullish divergent throughout the week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap up and tight range.  Sellers stepped in and pushed us range extension down but were unable to close the overnight gap before we discovered responsive buyers.  Buyers eventually turned initiative late in the session pushing us neutral and we ended the day at the highs.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high 7487.50 to tag 7502.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7425.75.  Sellers tag the naked vpoc at 7425.75 then continue lower to close the Friday gap down at 7410.50.  Look for buyers down at 7400 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7500 setting up a move to close the swing high gap at 7535 then a probe above swing high 7537.25.  Look for sellers up at 7538 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range.  Price worked higher overnight, balancing for several hours near the Thursday high before breaking away from the balance around 7am New York.  At 8:30am PCE core came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am and University of Michigan’s final March reading of sentiment.

Yesterday we printed normal variation down.  The day began with a slight gap up.  Sellers resolved the overnight gap and then we worked higher, eventually stalling out before the first hour of trade completed and well below the Wednesday high.  Sellers then pressed us range extension down but the selling dried up well ahead of the Wednesday low.  Price eventually worked back above the daily midpoint and closed as we started to rally up-and-away from it.

Normal variation down.  Inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 7390.75.  Look for a tag of the naked VPOC at 7415 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7460.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7352.50.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 7349.75.  Look for buyers down at 7309.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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