NASDAQ futures are coming into April 1st, the first day of Q2, gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price went gap up into the Globex session Sunday evening on the heels of strong economic data from China:
China PMI was a huge beat…everyone looks at that as a potential bottom forming in the global slowdown narrative..US futures opening gap up should have been no surprise
— ??? ?️ (@chigrl) March 31, 2019
At 8:30am advance retail sales data came out below expectations and knocked futures off their session high. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of the 3/22 range (two Friday’s back).
Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing, construction spending, and business inventories at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Last week marked time. Indices were weak to early on then finished out strong. The Russell was bullish divergent throughout the week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up and tight range. Sellers stepped in and pushed us range extension down but were unable to close the overnight gap before we discovered responsive buyers. Buyers eventually turned initiative late in the session pushing us neutral and we ended the day at the highs.
Neutral extreme up.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high 7487.50 to tag 7502.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down through overnight low 7425.75. Sellers tag the naked vpoc at 7425.75 then continue lower to close the Friday gap down at 7410.50. Look for buyers down at 7400 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7500 setting up a move to close the swing high gap at 7535 then a probe above swing high 7537.25. Look for sellers up at 7538 and two way trade to ensue.
Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
