NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Tuesday of May pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower around 8pm New York then balanced until about 7:30am before resuming the selling. As we approach cash open, price is hovering around 13,100, a handle we haven’t traded since March 31st.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down below the Friday low and a drive lower. Said drive created an early range extension down and effectively tagged last Thursday’s naked volume point of control. There was a small bounce here before sellers resumed their campaign, with selling that steadily worked price down through last week’s lows. We ended on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower down to 13,000.

Hypo 2 buyers work a half gap fill up to 13,189 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 13,342.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Monday in May with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight until about midnight New York when sellers began a campaign that ultimately worked price down through the Friday low around 2:45am. Since then price has balanced along the Friday low, and as we approach cash open price is hovering near the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a hard down move through Tuesday, then chop along the lows until a rally took shape Thursday and into the weekend. Dow had relative strength all week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day, which is anything but, happening less than 15% of the time. A normal day features no range extension after the first hour of trade. Friday began with a gap up beyond the prior three days’ ranges. Then there was an open-test lower, then drive higher. Said drive continued for the first hour, successfully closing the gap left behind Monday . That would be it for price discovery. The rest of the session saw price steadily return to the midpoint, then sellers reclaimed the mid, then we nearly went range extension down but instead held initial balance and worked back to the mid. We ended the session hovering below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,717.50. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 13,752. Look for sellers just above at 13,766 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 13,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 13,636.50. Look for buyers down at 13,606 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the lower half of Wedneday’s range. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out better-than-expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Wednesday range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The third in a row. Yesterday began with a slight gap up in range and after a brief two-way auction sellers stepped in and resolved the gap. Then we pushed up through the mid and for most of the morning it looked like buyers may have kept us above the mid but then sellers re-emerged in the afternoon, reclaiming the mid and pushing us into a late range extension down. We ended near the lows of the day but well off the lows of the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 13,451 setting up a move down through Tuesday low 13,380.75. Look for buyers down at 13,337 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 13,570.50 on their way to tagging 13,600.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 13,300. Look for buyers ahead of 13,273.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price steadily ascended higher overnight, trading back to nearly where prices were Tuesday morning. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out slightly below expectations, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM services at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a pro gap down and then an open-test-drive down. Sellers drove lower until about noon. Then the rest of the session was spent steadily retracing higher. We eventually closed at the daily midpoint. Of note—the VPOC never shifted up off the lowest distribution.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,519.50. Look for buyers just below at 13,500 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers take out Tuesday low 13,380.75 setting up a move to 13,337.

Hypo 3 buyers push through overnight high 13,653.25 and tag 13,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Tuesday in May pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price was balancing overnight, balancing below the Monday low for much of the globex session until sellers hit the tape around 7:40am New York. Said sellers sent price about -75 handles lower in about two minutes. Since then we’ve come into a mini balance, and as we approach cash open price is hovering at levels unseen since April 9th.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. THe dawy began with a gap up in range that sellers quickly drove into off the open, filling the gap before a responsive bid stepped in and chopped price higher. This chop up was complete before the first hour of cash markets was complete, and was followed by a second wave of selling that pushed to an early range extension down while taking out last week’s lows. The rest of the session was spent chopping along these lows, ultimately shifting the daily VPOC down near the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a small sell down to close the April 7th gap down at 13,618.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, liquidation down to 13,558.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and attempt to  reclaim Monday low 13,772 but fail and two way chop ensues along the Monday low.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first trading day of May gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the mid-point of last Friday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering about +15 above the Friday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we essentially marked time. There was a small rally in the beginning of the week, a sell-off mid week, and then a small fade upward to end the week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day. The session began with a gap down in range that was quickly resolved via an open-drive-up. Buyers made an early range extension up just a few points beyond the gap fill before price abruptly fell back to the midpoint. There was a battle along the mid for several hours before a mid-afternoon push to a new low of day and into the neutral print. Said sellers were unable to take out the Thursday low. Instead price chopped along the lower quadrant of range into the weekend close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,867.25. From there sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 13,844.50. Look for buyers at 13,800 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to close the 04/22 gap down at 13,756 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, trading up to 14,000 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Tuesday’s range. Price briefly probed below the Wednesday range around 3:30am but as we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Tech ‘juggernauts’ Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) reported earnings after the bell Tuesday. Shares are -2.5% and +5% respectively in pre-market trade.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by and FOMC announcement/press conference from 2-2:30pm. CME Fed Fund futures indicated a 0% probability of the Fed adjusting their benchmark borrowing rate.

Tech giants Apple and Facebook are set to report earnings after the bell, and later this evening President Joe Biden will be giving his first speech to Congress.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up in range. After a brief open two way auction in range sellers stepped in and worked a gap fill then continued lower, trading down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range but never exceeding the low. Instead buyers worked price back to the daily midpoint, sellers defended the mid, and we ended the session chopping along the bottom-side of the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,946.25. Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 13,979.25. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the afternoon.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go down, taking out overnight low 13,904.75 and tagging 13,900. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the afternoon.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a liquidation down to 13,800. Then look for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the afternoon.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the last Tuesday of April with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring **normal** range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight, balancing along the Monday high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Monday high and about 40 points below record highs.

Shares of AI and robotics company Tesla are -2% in premarket trade after reporting earnings Monday afternoon.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by a 2-year note auction at 11:30am then a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Major NASDAQ components Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) are set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The structure of the price action nearly resembles a double distribution trend up, but a closer look at the volume profile reveals only a single Gaussian structure. The day began with a slight gap up in range and after an open two-way auction in range buyer stepped in and began campaigning price higher. Price exceeded last Friday’s high early on, around 11am New York before flagging along these highs through lunch. After lunch buyers continued their campaign higher, eventually tagging 14,000 and going on to close the 04/16 open gap. The day ended chopping along the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 14,050 on the way to probing beyond record high 14,059.75.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 14,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 13,999 before two way trade ensues.

Basically, a pause as the market awaits new information.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are floating around the unchanged line heading into Monday after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price worked lower overnight, trading down near last Friday’s midpoint before discovering a responsive bid around 8am New York.  At 8:30am durable goods orders came out in-line ex-transportation but well below expectations if we include transports. Since then price has worked about 50 handles up, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 6-month bill and 2-year note auctions at 11:30am followed by 3-month bill and 5-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week had some big choppy price action. There was weakness early in the week and eventually strength into the weekend. Russell was bullish divergent throughout the week, suggesting risk tolerance remains elevated.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up in range and then an open drive higher. Early buyers steadily campaigned price higher, effectively making short work of returning price “to the scene of the crime” where the initial reaction to new of a capital gains tax increase hit the wires. Price shot clean through beyond that level and eventually took out Thursday high before flagging along the highs for a few hours. Price then dropped a bit during settlement period.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and trade down to 13,845 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 13,944.25 setting up a move up through last Friday high 13,981 on the way to tagging 14,000.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down through 13,845 early on and sustain trade below it seeting up a move to 13,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quad of Thursday range.

On the economic calendar today we have PMI composite flash at 9:45am followed by new home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began basically flat and then a open drive down. Buyers defended the Wednesday VPOC and worked price higher, making an early range extension up while taking out Wednesday high. A check back to the midpoint was defended by buyers but before a new high could be made the tax news hit the tape and sent price lower. We quickly entered a neutral print and eventually probed below the Wednesday low before coming into a choppy balance along the low for the remainder of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 13,737 on their way to taking out the Thursday low 13701.75. Look for buyers just below at 13,687 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers drive higher on the open, reclaiming 13,800 early on and sustaining trade above it, setting up a “return to the scene of the crime” up at the Thursday VPOC 13,925.50.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 14,000 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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