NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Globex gapped down into the Sunday evening open and proceeded to liquidate down to a new two-week low before coming into balance.  The move is news driven, after the White House went on offense in the ongoing tariff talks with China.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of last Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy early on, ultimately giving way to sellers Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning before finding a strong responsive bid.  Buyers then took the markets trend up into all of Friday, closing the week out at the highs.  The Russell 200o demonstrated divergent strength throughout the week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up to near the top of Thursday’s range.  Buyers stepped in early on and we began trending higher, with the behavior extending through the entire session and us closing the week out a few points off of all-time highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and tag 7800.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7813.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 7865 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7667.50 to tag the open gap at 7648.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight after continuing to slide lower for a bit following Wednesday’s afternoon sell-off.  Price dropped to a new 7-day low before catching a bid near last Monday’s (4/22) high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out weaker than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have durable goods and factory orders at 8:30am followed by both 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

All of the important tech earnings are complete for the week.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap up into the Monday midpoint.  Sellers were unable to fill the overnight gap during the opening two-way auction.  Instead price began working higher, pushing range extension up in the late morning but buyers were unable to test beyond the Monday high.  Instead we came into a balance formation and awaited the FOMC rate decision.  First reaction after the announcement was up, it took out the daily high by a few ticks but again could not test beyond the Monday high.  Instead we had a failed auction.  Reaction two and three to the FOMC rate decision were down and this triggered a liquidation that probed down near Tuesday’s low.  We ended the day near low-of-session.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7800 setting up a move to target 7831.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7732 which resolves the 4/22 gap at 7734.75 (we tagged this level during globex but not during cash)  and continues lower to 7728.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down into the lower quadrant of Friday’s range before settling into balance.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence and pending home sales at 10am.

Also Apple is set to report earnings after the bell and is almost certain to put some volatility into the NASDAQ.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began flat and with a tight two-way auction. Buyers began campaigning price higher, taking us range extension up, but were unable to make a new record high before closing bell. Then earnings from Google came out during settlement and the weaker-than-expected data resulted in sellers reversing all of the day’s gains and more, closing us at session low.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7813.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7816.  This sets up a move to tag 7833.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7779 which sets up a test below last Friday’s low 7755.50.  This triggers a liquidation down to 7728.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7833.75 setting up a full reversal of the Google sell-off, trading us up to 7869.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher overnight, probing up near Thursday highs before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at the Friday high.

On the economic calendar today we have the Dallas Fed manufacturing index at 10:30am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

After the bell, Google parent company Alphabet is set to report earnings.  This is a NASDAQ moving report.

Last week began with a gap down then strength through Monday and into Tuesday where we saw conviction buying which pressed the NASDAQ to new record highs.  The other indices haven’t made new highs yet alongside the NASDAQ, and during the second half of the week, while the NASDAQ mostly marked time, there was a bit more weakness in the other indices.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed an odd-looking normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up in range that sellers pressed into.  The early selling drive pressed down into the conviction buying from Tuesday, and by 10am responsive buyers (responsive relative to the Friday open, initiative relative to the Tuesday conviction day) stepped in and began working price higher.  Price worked higher for the erst of the day, eventually closing the week out at session high and just a few points off of all time high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down into the Friday buying, look for price to trade down to 7820 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 7859.75 setting up a move to target 7870 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down and tag the 7800 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7792 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, briefly probing below Thursday’s low before forming an excess low and coming into balance.  Headed into the 8:30am GDP announcement price was hovering near unchanged.  The 8:30am GDP data was much stronger than expected and caused a quick spike higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below Thursday’s midpoint.

The only other economic event today is a final April reading of sentiment by the University of Michigan at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal.  THe day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved.  The morning selling was quite dynamic and formed a wide range, ultimately probing below the Wednesday low and forming a sharp excess low before coming into balance above the daily midpoint.  Then we marked time into the close.  Amazon and Intel earnings came out and sellers made one more attempt lower but were unable to take out the IB low before the market closed.

Normal day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to trade up to 7854.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the GDP spike and close the gap down to 7798.50.  Look for buyers down at 7794.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7756.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading to new record highs.  The overnight move came after earnings from Microsoft and Facebook exceeded investor expectations.  At 8:30am durable goods orders came in better-than-expected and initial/continuing jobless claims data were mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering a few points off of all-time highs and about 20 point above Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Amazon and Intel are set to report earnings after the bell, and investors are likely to take a cue from these heavy big-tech leaders.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a slight gap down and open two-way auction.  Buyers managed to press price range extension up (and a few point above ATH) before lunch, then sellers stepped in and pressed the auction neutral.  We then chopped along the bottom-side of the daily midpoint before a sharp move lower into the cash close.  But before settlement, Microsoft earnings hit and we spiked back to ATH.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher. trading up to the 7900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7848.  From here they continue lower, down through overnight low 7834 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up through 7900 and sustain trade above it, leading to a continued exploration of higher prices.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked to a new record high overnight before settling into balance along Tuesday’s high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at the Tuesday high.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

More importantly for auction behavior on the NASDAQ, we have Microsoft, Facebook, and Tesla reporting earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and open-test-drive, with price opening just up beyond the Monday close.  A brief test lower discovered a strong responsive bid and price drove higher.  Up in open air, the auction continued exploring higher prices for the rest of the session.

Trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to continue discovering higher prices.  Look for sellers to step in ahead of 7860 and two way balance to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up the the 7900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7816 setting up a move to target the 7800 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked higher overnight, climbing to a new record high before coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have house price index at 9am, new home sales at 10am, a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am followed by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap down to near the Friday low.  Sellers were unable to test below Friday low during a brief 2-way auction at the open.  Instead price began to campaign higher, ultimately closing the overnight gap and continuing on to make a new all-time high.  The VPOC migrated higher throughout the session.

Double D trend up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, trading up through overnight high 7769.50.  Look for sellers up at 7769.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7734.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7724.50.  Look for buyers down at 7713 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7682 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on extreme volume.  Price pushed lower overnight, discovering a bid ahead of the Tuesday low before forming a sharp reversal and trading back into the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am advance retail sales data and initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Thursday midpoint.

We have a busy economic calendar today ahead of a four day holiday weekend.  US markets will be closed Friday in Observation of Good Friday and closed again Monday in observation of Easter.  At 9:45 we’ll hear the Markit manufacturing/service/composite PMI data, at 10am leading index and business inventories, and at 11:30am both 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and push to new all-time highs before sellers stepped in and worked the overnight gap fil.  We then chopping along the unchanged level for the rest of the day with sellers defending the midpoint and buyers defending the unchanged mark.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press off the open, taking out overnight high 7708.50 and sustaining trade above it to set up a probe above all-time high 7733.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the small overnight gap to fill down to 7689.  Look for sellers to trade down through overnight low 7660.25 to target the open gap at 7648.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7624 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, beginning to trend higher around 8pm New York and continuing to do so up until now.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have wholesale inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and the beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday the market printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap up and two-way open auction that eventually gave way to a small push higher.  Sellers stepped in just ahead of the 7700 century mark and we went into a tight balance.  Volatility during settlement after Netflix and IBM earnings were released caused a spike that rapidly took the market range extension down, then range extension up, before ultimately closing near the midpoint.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through all-time hgih 7728.75.  Open air.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7700 before finding a responsive bid (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to the close) before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down to 7680.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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