NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and extreme volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in a balanced session.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering along Wednesday’s midpoint.  At 8:30am Philly Fed and Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out all better-than-expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower, with sellers pushing nearly to the Tuesday midpoint during the first hour of trade. Then, much like Tuesday, the market briefly went range extension down just after 10:30am before discovering a responsive bid.  The rest of the session was spent working back up through the daily mid then chopping along it, eventually ramping higher near end-of-day but not pushing neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7313.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7317.50.  Look for sellers up at 7348.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 7375.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading up down through overnight low 7262.25.  Look for buyers down at 7207 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, taking out the Tuesday high before rotating down.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the upper quadrant of Tueday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have housing starts/building permits at 8:30am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher as buyer rejected an early attempt to trade back into Monday’s range.  Then, late into the first hour of trade sellers made a second attempt into Monday range which very briefly pressed the market range extension down.  However, this second rejection by the buyers triggered a trend up which continued all the way into closing bell.  The action was accented by a squeeze higher during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7357.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7368.50.  Look for sellers up at 7374.25 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7375 setting up a move to target 7400 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, sustain trade below 7300, setting up a move to target 7271.75 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the 2pm FOMC minutes to dictate direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight balancing out around the Monday midpoint for several hours before overnight buyers became initiative and worked up near the Monday high.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near the Monday high but all overnight trade has been contained within the Monday cash range thus far.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing productions at 9:15am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and drive lower.  The first hour of trade was dynamic and for most of the day we traded inside of it, making it look like we may end up with a normal print.  But then, late in the session price pushed range extension up by a few ticks.  Late in the session the intra-day gains were erased and we closed near session low.  The entire daily range was contained inside of last Friday’s range. Therefore we printed a normal variation up, inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, close the Friday gap up at 7173.25 then continue higher, trading up to 7200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7100.  We chop here before rallying back up through overnight high 7153 and continuing higher to close the Friday gap 7173.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 7076.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7063.50.  Look for buyers down at 6994.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down but catching a responsive bid ahead of the lower quadrant of Monday’s cash range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering at Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bills up for auction at 11:30am and 4- and 52-week bills at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction on the open.  Buyers drove shortly after, closing the overnight gap but stalling right at it before the first hour of trade was in [initial balance].  Then, after looking like the market was catching a bid at the daily mid, sellers instead stepped in and initiated a fresh leg lower pressing up range extension down and trading deep into the August second conviction buy day.  By early afternoon the market had made a low with a quality look.  We then spent the rest of the day rallying higher, eventually closing up above the daily midpoint.

Normal variation down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7392.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7398.50.  Look for some chop at the 7400 century mark before buyers continue higher to 7439.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close overnight gap 7392.50, take out overnight high 7398.50 then stall out at 7400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 7337 and begin working back down to Monday low 7286.50.  They test below the Monday low setting up a move to target 7251.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was in balance overnight, chopping along the Friday midpoint for much of the Globex session before making a downward rotation around 4am.  Since then price has bounced back up to the low-end of that overnight balance.

There are no economic events today.  Federal workers have today off in celebration of Christopher Columbus.

Last week markets were gap up into Monday then essentially marked time through end of Wednesday, with the days starting strong and ending weak.  Then Thursday saw a gap down and away from that three day range then a drive lower.  The drive lower continued through Friday until a responsive bid stepped in late Friday afternoon.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  It was an aggressive normal variation down but I am not labeling it a trend day or even a double distribution trend day.  However it was more dynamic then our usual normal variation down.  But the VPOC settled just below the daily midpoint.  The day began flat and with a wide open auction that eventually gave way to sellers who worked down through the Thursday low then accelerated to the downside.  Price below through the 7400 century mark by lunchtime and continued lower through the early afternoon.  Late into the afternoon, after probing into price levels untouched since late August, a responsive bid stepped in and ramped price back to the daily midpoint by end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7387 to set up a move to test below Friday’s low 7347.  Look for buyers down at 7321.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7436.25.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 7453.25.  Look for sellers up at 7475.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers drive down through 7321.25 and tag the 7300 century mark.  We chop here for a bit then continue lower, down to 7251.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price balanced overnight, chopping along the lower quadrant of Thursday’s trend down.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant still and yet to breach the Thursday low.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data came out mixed, with change in non-farm134k vs 185k payrolls coming in well below expectations [134k vs 185k est].

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower.  Price opened just below weekly low and drove down, uncontested, until discovering a responsive bid at the 09/13 open gap.  Price managed to ramp a bit into the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7513.  Then sellers step in and work price down through overnight low 7469.75.  Look for buyers down at 7450 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, sustain trade below 7450 setting up a move to target 7408.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers close overnight gap 7513 then work up through overnight high 7540 setting up a move to target 7556 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down into prices unseen since last Wednesday.  As we approach cash open prices are hovering below the weekly low.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims came out better than expected.

(good news, neutral reaction, bearish)

Also on the economic calendar today we have factory/durable goods orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up inside range.  Buyers made a small push off the open but were unable to test beyond the Tuesday high.  They also stalled out before the market could go range extension up.  Then responsive sellers stepped in.  The pushed RE down then we came into balance. Then later in the session they closed the overnight gap and we ended the day near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7602.25 setting up a move to close the gap down at 7590.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to 7573.25 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch target is 7573.25.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap up to 7665.50 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7667.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading near last Friday’s low before catching a bid and coming into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering just barely inside of Monday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Then at 12pm Jerome Powell is talking in Boston at the NABE conference.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up-and-out of the prior week’s range.  Price drove higher off the open, briefly making a new record high before the auction stalled out.  Buyers were unable to press the market range extension up despite an hour-or-so spent hovering just below the high.  Instead responsive sellers stepped in and pushed.  They continued pushing until we went RE down, then closed the overnight gap, then continued lower, finally discovering responsive buyers just ahead of Friday’s naked volume point of control and experiencing a small ramp into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject us out of the Monday range, driving lower off the open to take out overnight low 7630.25.  This sets up a move down to 7613.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade us down to the open gap at 7590.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7674 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7678.25.  Look for sellers up at 7676.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up near the record high print before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering well above last week’s high and about 25 point away from record highs.

The move overnight is being attributed (at least partially) to NAFTA coming to a new agreement amid the ongoing trade wars.

On the economic agenda today we have ISM manufacturing/employment at 10am followed by a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week started off with selling across all major indices.  While the NASDAQ found a floor by late Monday and rallied through the rest of the week, the other indices marked time and worked sideways.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and two way auction.  Buyers eventually became initiative and closed the overnight gap and took out overnight high by a few ticks before we traded back to the daily mean.  There was a small ramp into the closing bell.  Ultimately it was an inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 7670.50 then continue lower to close the gap down to 7663.75.  Look for buyers here and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 2 gap and go higher, trade up through overnight high 7719.75 and probe the globex high 7726.  Open air.  Look for sellers up at the weekly ATR band high 7754.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7644 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range.  Price was balanced overnight, churning higher and holding inside of the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am a large data dump occurred which included advance goods trades balance, GDP (QoQ, Q2), durable goods orders, and initial/continuing jobless claims.

Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.  Fed chairman Jerome Powell will also be giving a brief talk at a Senate event happening at 4:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began by continuing to explore higher, which has been the trend since Monday morning.  Price methodaically closed a gap left behind on 9/4, then built a base here heading into the FOMC rate decision.  The first reaction after the 25bp hike was a spike higher which stopped one tick shy of the 08/31 gap at 7668.25.  Then second and third reaction were down which triggered a hard sale for the rest of the day, ultimately pressing us range extension down and closing near session low.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7590.50.  From here we continue lower, down though overnight low 7584 setting up a move to target 7566 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 7600 setting up a move up through overnight high 7618.25.  Look for sellers up at 7640 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7671.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »