NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the Monday high until about 1am when sellers made an attempt lower. Said sellers reversed much of the late Monday afternoon ramp before discovering a strong responsive bid. Buyers took price back up and beyond the Globex high, and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near last Thursday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10:30am and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down in range and after a choppy open two-way auction sellers made a move on the lows. Sellers took out last week’s low, trading down into the July 30th range briefly before a strong responsive bid stepped in. There was a battle at the midpoint and we chopped over it a few times before buyers pushed away from it and into a neutral print. Around 3pm we worked back to the midpoint again, buyers defended, setting up a powerful ramp higher into the closing bell. The ramp saw price climb back above last Friday’s midpoint and we ended on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, squeezing up to 11,138.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 11,138.25 setting up a tag of 11,200 and a gap fill up to 11,252.75 before two way trad ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 10,989. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 10,89750 setting up a tag of the Monday VPOC 10,808 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the last full week of September gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:20am when sellers stepped in and drove price down through last Friday’s low. As we approach cash open, price is bouncing along, right around the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a three day rally—rallying up into the FOMC rate decision then selling off for the rest of the week. There was a decent ramp higher into the Friday close. The Russell was divergent strong, suggesting a decent risk appetite still exists. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap up that sellers drove down into at the open. This selling continued until tagging Thursday’s volume point of control. A strong responsive bid stepped in here and formed a sharp excess low. The low would not hold, however, by late morning sellers were pressing into the tap again and before lunch the Thursday low was taken out. There was a minor battle along the Thursday low before the selling campaign continued, trading down into levels unseen since July 31st. Then around 1:45pm the auction reversed. We spent the rest of the day ramping higher. We closed just below the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and work a partial gap fill up to 10,880 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, liquidating down through overnight low 10,708.50. Buyers cannot hold 10,700 setting up a move down to 10,630.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a full gap fill up to 10,927.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower overnight, continuing on the momentum of Wednesday afternoon’s selloff until about 2:30am, when responsive buyers stepped in slightly below last Friday’s open gap. Those sellers managed to put together a 110 point rotation higher that ran until about 6am. Since then sellers have been in control. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out very slightly worse than expected. At the same time housing starts came in soft and Philadelphia Fed data came out in line. As we approach cash open, price is in a bit of a free fall and nearing last Friday’s low.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up and after a tight open two way auction sellers stepped in and erased the open gap. Said sellers managed to take out the Tuesday low and press rang extension down by a few points before responsive buyers worked price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the mid, setting up a new low of the day. Third reaction to the FOMC rate decision was down and we spent the rest of the session working lower, eventually closing on session low, down in the lower quadrant of Monday’s gain.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory, working up to 11,000 before stalling out and going into chop.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, tagging the open gap at 10,903.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation. Downside targets 10,875 — 10,823 — 10,719 — 10,695.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume and range. The campaign higher continued overnight, with buyers bidding the Globex market back up near last Thursday’s high (but not exceeding it) before discovering responsive sellers. Said sellers stepped in around 7am New York and knocked price back down into Tuesday’s range. At 8:30am retail sales data came out weaker than expected. The market hasn’t shown much reaction to the data point so far, and as we approach cash open price remains hovering in the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range.

Also on the economic docket today we have business inventories and housing market index at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 10:30am. Then comes the FOMC rate decision at 2pm followed by a press conference from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 2:30pm.

Fed fund futures are currently pricing in a 100% probability that the Fed will keep their benchmark borrowing rate pinned at 0%. The event is likely to cause an uptick in volatility as investors attempt to price in any further clarity they gain on the changes announced by Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium last month along with other factors like new economic forecasts and whether the central bank will commit to allowing inflation to overshoot their 2% target before tightening.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap up beyond Monday’s range. There was an open drive higher which stalled out within the first 30 minutes. Sellers managed to press the market range extension down right around 10:30am but buyers rejected an attempt back into Monday’s range. Instead price recovered the daily midpoint by late morning. Around 1:15 the market went range extension up, pressing into a neutral print. Sellers quickly reverted that move back to the midpoint before crossing down through it and making a new low of day. Again buyers were seen rejecting a move back into Monday’s range. Price ramped back up through the mid and ended the day in the upper quadrant of range.

Choppy neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,452.75. From here sellers continue lower, taking out overnight low 11,388.50 before two way trade ensues. Then watch for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 11,300. Then watch for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 11,539. Look for sellers just above at 11,545.25. Then watch for third reaction to the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about midnight New York when initiative buyers stepped in and bid the market higher. Price has been on a unidirectional campaign since, trading up to levels unseen since last Thursday. At 8:30am Empire State manufacturing index came out much stronger than expected:

NY FED'S SEP MFG INDEX 17.0 VS 3.7 IN AUG

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) September 15, 2020

As we approach cash open, price is hovering around the upper quadrant of the Thursday (rollforward) range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am and a 20-year bond auction at 1pm. The Fed meeting has begun and we will hear their announcement tomorrow at 2pm tomorrow.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and after a brief open two way auction price drove higher, driving higher right up until about 10:30am. Buyers could not, however, press the market range extension up. Instead price stalled just above last Thursday’s midpoint. Price then consolidated just below the daily high until about lunchtime when sellers stepped in and drove price back down through the midpoint and eventually to a brief range extension lower. Sellers were rejected from closing the overnight gap. Instead, only a few points below low of day responsive buyers (responsive relative to Monday’s open, initiative relative to Friday’s close) stepped in and worked price back up through the midpoint. We ended the day a bit above the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to hold price above 11,381 setting up a run to 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,261.75. Look for buyers down at 11,237 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers drive up to 11,546.75 before chop ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was gap higher at 6pm Sunday evening when futures opened for trade. Price then drove unidirectional higher, trading right up to Friday’s high print and stalling (to the tick) and failing to take it out. Since then around 4:15am New York) we have been in a balance and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy and holiday shortened. U.S. markets were closed Monday in observation of Labor Day. Then we had two days up and two days down, ultimately closing lower across the board. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The case could be made that it was a double distribution trend down but I will classify it as a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up that was resolved during an open two way auction. From there sellers worked a bit lower but could not take out the Thursday low on their first attempt. Price campaigned higher before stalling out ahead of the morning high. The action was lower from then until about 1:45pm, selling down into levels unseen since August 11th. We caught a bid and rotated back to the daily midpoint, eventually closing just a few points below it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a partial gap fill down to 11,125 before buyers step in and work up through overnight high 11,265.75. Look for sellers up at 11,300 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, taking out overnight high 11,265.75 early on setting up a move to tag 11,300. Stretch target 11,381.

Hypo 3 full gap fill down to 11,050 then a tag of the Friday VPOC at 11,010. Look for buyers around 11,000 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday up about +150 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher overnight, steadily campaigning higher until about 6am. Sellers became active around Tuesday’s midpoint, and as we approach cash open, price is hovering below Tuesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 10-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down (barely). The day began with a gap down near last Friday’s low. The open auction was fast, bouncing first higher then lower to take out the Friday low by a few points before forming a sharp excess low. From then on the next hour was spent campaigning higher, filling a half gap up to 11,400. Then sellers knocked price back down through the daily midpoint. We chopped along the daily midpoint until about 2:30pm when sellers stepped in and drove lower. Sellers worked lower and ended the day on the lows.

We were only range extension up for about 2 minutes. It is debatable that yesterday was a normal variation down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory, closing the gap down to 11,054.50. Look for buyers down at 11,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down through overnight low 10,935.25 tagging the open gap at 10,903.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go up through overnight high 11,296.25. Look for sellers up at 11,411.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first trading day of the week down about -350 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 2am when sellers began campaigning price lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-month T-bill auction at 10am, 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, 3-year note auction at 1pm and consumer credit at 3pm.

Last week kicked off with three days of buying across all major U.S. indices. The rally came to a conclusion Wednesday afternoon. From Thursday onward there was heavy selling pressure on the tape. While the Russell demonstrated some relative strength, all indices ended the week lower after reversing their upward trends from earlier in the week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down in range. An open-two way auction was quickly overrun by sellers who drove lower for the first hour and fifteen minutes of trade. This selling took price down to levels unseen since August 14th before discovering a bid. After a sharp excess low formed, buyers worked price back up to the daily midpoint. After battling over the mid for about two hours, buyers eventually reclaimed it and drove higher from it. Said buyers could not push the market into a neutral print. Instead stalling out at the daily high set during the open auction (to the tick). Price slightly faded back to the midpoint into the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 11,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through 11,091 and sustaining trade below it, setting up a move to tag 11,000. Look for buyers down at the 8/11 open gap down at 10,903.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 11,551.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, first working to erase the Thursday afternoon ramp then continuing a bit lower. From then on it was a chop, chopping along the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range. At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Thursday low.

There are no other important economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down near the Wednesday low but still in range. After an open two-way auction sellers began to rotate price lower, taking out the Thursday low in a choppy battle with buyers before accelerating the selling down through the open gap left behind on 08/31 (month end)., Sellers drove lower until about 11:30am when some responsive buyers were found ahead of the 08/26 gap. After an hour long battle, sellers resumed their campaign, stalling out just above the 08/26 naked vpoc. There was a slight ramp near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, tagging 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag 11,383 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,797.50. Look for sellers up at 11,808.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Volatility picked up over the last 24 hours. The overnight session was balanced, chopping up near the Wednesday high until about 5am New York when sellers stepped in and drove price lower. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open price is down in the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM services index at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and then 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. As noted above, volatility picked up yesterday morning. The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs. Sellers drove lower into the open, closing the entier gap and continuing down into the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range before catching a bid. Buyers worked price back up to the daily midpoint. Sellers defended the mid and pressed to a new session low, briefly trading below the Tuesday midpoint before responsive buyers formed a sharp excess low. From then on the rest of the session was an auction higher, crossing up through the mid around 12:45pm and slowly regaining the upper quadrant. After flagging for about an hour buyers made one final push into the close and managed to press the market neutral right near the end of the day and close out the session near the highs.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and tag the Wednesday VPOC at 12,291.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 12,411.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 12,438.75. Look for sellers up at 12,443.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation down to 12,107.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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