NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was gap higher at 6pm Sunday evening when futures opened for trade. Price then drove unidirectional higher, trading right up to Friday’s high print and stalling (to the tick) and failing to take it out. Since then around 4:15am New York) we have been in a balance and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Friday’s range.
On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.
Last week was choppy and holiday shortened. U.S. markets were closed Monday in observation of Labor Day. Then we had two days up and two days down, ultimately closing lower across the board. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The case could be made that it was a double distribution trend down but I will classify it as a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up that was resolved during an open two way auction. From there sellers worked a bit lower but could not take out the Thursday low on their first attempt. Price campaigned higher before stalling out ahead of the morning high. The action was lower from then until about 1:45pm, selling down into levels unseen since August 11th. We caught a bid and rotated back to the daily midpoint, eventually closing just a few points below it.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a partial gap fill down to 11,125 before buyers step in and work up through overnight high 11,265.75. Look for sellers up at 11,300 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, taking out overnight high 11,265.75 early on setting up a move to tag 11,300. Stretch target 11,381.
Hypo 3 full gap fill down to 11,050 then a tag of the Friday VPOC at 11,010. Look for buyers around 11,000 and two way trade to ensue.
Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:
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