NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about midnight New York when initiative buyers stepped in and bid the market higher. Price has been on a unidirectional campaign since, trading up to levels unseen since last Thursday. At 8:30am Empire State manufacturing index came out much stronger than expected:
NY FED'S SEP MFG INDEX 17.0 VS 3.7 IN AUG
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) September 15, 2020
As we approach cash open, price is hovering around the upper quadrant of the Thursday (rollforward) range.
Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am and a 20-year bond auction at 1pm. The Fed meeting has begun and we will hear their announcement tomorrow at 2pm tomorrow.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and after a brief open two way auction price drove higher, driving higher right up until about 10:30am. Buyers could not, however, press the market range extension up. Instead price stalled just above last Thursday’s midpoint. Price then consolidated just below the daily high until about lunchtime when sellers stepped in and drove price back down through the midpoint and eventually to a brief range extension lower. Sellers were rejected from closing the overnight gap. Instead, only a few points below low of day responsive buyers (responsive relative to Monday’s open, initiative relative to Friday’s close) stepped in and worked price back up through the midpoint. We ended the day a bit above the midpoint.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to hold price above 11,381 setting up a run to 11,500 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,261.75. Look for buyers down at 11,237 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers drive up to 11,546.75 before chop ensues.
Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:
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