NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher until about 3am New York time.  Then we balanced out just above last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar is hot this week but it starts off slowly.  Despacito.  At 9:45am Chicago Purchasing Manager, 10am Pending Home Sales, and at 11:30am both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week we drifted higher through Thursday morning.  The Dow was trend up all week.  The Russell was under pressure.  The NASDAQ and S&P made hard moves lower Thursday afternoon then stabilized into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down but inside the Thursday range.  Then we spent the rest of the day slowly working higher, slowly working the gap fill.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5911.75.    From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5897.25.  Look for buyers down at 5879.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5933.50 triggering a quick rally up to 5962.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through 5872.50 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to test last Thursday’s low 5844.75.  Look for buyers down at 5841 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday at record highs after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher overnight, sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly.  Durable Goods and Advance Goods Trade Balance data came out at 8:30am and both were huge bullish beats.

Then came the earnings.  Here’s this morning’s big winners:

Comcast Reports Q2 EPS $0.52 vs $0.48 Est., Sales $21.165B vs $20.86B Est.
Mastercard Reports Q2 EPS $1.10 vs $1.04 Est., Sales $3.1B vs $2.97B Est.
UPS Reports Q2 EPS $1.58 vs $1.47 Est., Sales $15.75B vs $15.5B Est.
Celgene Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.82 vs $1.78 Est., Sales $3.27B vs $3.23B Est.
P&G Reports Q4 Core EPS $0.85 vs $0.78 Est., Sales $16.1B vs $16.02B Est.
Twitter Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est., Sales $573.9M vs $536.5M Est.
Dow Chemical Reports Q2 Operating EPS $1.08 vs $1 Est., Sales $13.8B vs $13.61B Est.
Southwest Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.24 vs $1.20 Est., Sales $5.7B vs $5.72B Est.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed nominee Quarles confirmation hearing at the Senate banking committee at 10am, then a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap up, sellers stalled ahead of record highs instead going range extension down.  Sellers, however, could not close the overnight gap.  Then the Fed left their key borrowing rate unchanged at 2pm.  Third reaction off the announcement was a sell, but buyers ultimately took the day back to the highs. Then, after hours, several strong earnings reports pressed the NASDAQ even higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and press down to 5974.  Buyers step in here and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5948.75 then take out overnight low 5947.25 setting up a move to target 5936.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5993.50 and tag 6002 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 6002 triggering a rally/trend higher.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher early this morning while company-after-company issued earnings well beyond analyst expectations.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in below last week.

Also on the economic agenda today we have the Fed Rate decision at 2pm.  There are several other low-impact events before the announcement including New Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gay down and push lower, but sellers were unable to take out the Monday low.  Instead the auction reversed higher and spent most of the day working upward.  Price was contained however inside of the Monday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher off the open, up to 5967.50 before we pause ahead of the Fed decision.  Look for third reaction analysis after the announcement to give direction into the end-of-day.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5935 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5927.  Look for buyers around 5920 MCVPOC as we wait for Fed decision.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up through 5974 and sustain trade above it, causing the NASDAQ to trend higher up into the Fed decision.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, holding inside Monday’s range.  Just after closing bell Monday, Google earnings erased much of the progress achieved by buyers late into Monday’s session.  At the core of the selling reaction was the $2.7 billion dollar anti-trust fine levied against the tech giant by the European Union.

At 9am today the House Price Index came out slightly below expectations.  Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began flat and buyers made a move up to the open gap from last Thursday (primary hypo).  Sellers then stepped in and pushed the market range extension down.  Then we traversed the entire daily range, pushing neutral, then to new all-time highs before ultimately falling back to the daily mid after Google.  Neutral print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to 5937.50 then stall.  We then take out overnight low 5920.75 setting up a move to target the naked VPOC at 5907.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, down through overnight low 5920.75 and work down to fill the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5842.75  and probe Monday’s high 5954.75 continuing higher to 5967.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Action was balanced overnight.  Price briefly exceeded the high set on Friday.

On the economic calendar today we have Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI at 9:45am, Existing Home Sales at 10am, and 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began strong with price action drifting higher through Wednesday before balancing out.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Last Friday the NASDAQ formed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and choppy opening hour which ultimately gave way to afternoon buying.  Buyers were unable, however, to close the overnight gap by the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5922.75 and close the gap up at 5924.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5905 and work down to the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to new record highs, above 5935.50 and work up to 5953.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, holding onto Thursday’s range.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  A morning gap down was sold into, pressing briefly below the overnight low and into range extension down (hypo 3).  Then a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5924.50.  From there we continue higher, briefly poking above overnight high 5932.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 5895 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to the open gap at 5833.25 before two way trade ensues.

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight in a slow manner.  Initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed at 8:30am.

Also on the docket today we have Leading Indicators at 10am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and after a small drive higher at the open we saw sellers unable to take out opening swing low.  Instead price turned higher and worked up to the measured move target area at 5921 before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5917.50.  Look for sellers to take out overnight low 5914.75.  Buyers are found down at 5904.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work higher off the open, up through overnight high 5936.75 and continue exploring higher prices.  Look for sellers around 5935.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5896.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked higher overnight.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out stronger than last week.  At 8:30am the Building Permits number was a huge upside beat.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a hard sell.  Where sellers quickly stalled out, and a sharp reversal occurred, tells a story of trapped short sellers.  It was right at the 68% Fibonacci retracement of the June sell-off.  Sellers failed to engage the market at this level last Friday—we pushed right through it.  Then yesterday the zone was bid as sellers tried to cover their positions.

However, the speed of the reversal off of the 5823 levels speaks to trapped short sellers.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for continued pressure on the short seller.  A push up through overnight high 5905 and a move through all-time highs.  Look for sellers up at 5921 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5883.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 5881.75.  Look for buyers down at 5868 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers push trade down to 5858.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight and ultimately held inside the Monday range.

On the economic agenda today, we have NAHB Housing Market index at 10am, a 52-week and 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The week began with a gap up and small drive higher. Sellers sold into the move by late morning we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning lower.  Then, during settlement, strong earnings out of Netflix caused the NASDAQ to spike back up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5855.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5862.50.  Look for sellers up to 5872 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5832 and target the naked VPOC at 5817.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5805 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5872 setting up a move to target 5894.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price had a little jaunt higher overnight, inching its way up the low-friction ascent towards prior swing highs but stalled.  There was little interest to participate during globex.

The economic calendar is dead.  Just a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week we rallied.  The NASDAQ rallied all week long.  It rallied harder after Wednesday.  Until like Tuesday the Russell was selling.  Then if formed a huge excess low, suggesting lot-o-demand was present.  Then it rallied too.  The US major indices rallied last week.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap up-and-out of Thursday’s range.  Buyers rejected a move back down into Thursday prices and we instead spent the rest of the day rallying.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5837.75 setting up a move to target the open gap at 5796.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5858.75 and tag the high volume node at 5880 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers trigger a rally up to 5821 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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