NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher overnight, eventually coming into balance inside last Wednesday’s range.

The economic calendar starts off slow this week.  We only have a 3- and 6-mont T-bill auction to monitor at 11:30am.

Last week began with a gap higher and one-and-a-half day rally.  Then, after a sharp reversal Tuesday afternoon, there was a big gap down Wednesday.  But buyers bought it up all day.  Then Thursday was gap down again, and this time a trend down printed.  However, much of the progress made by sellers on Thursday was retraced Friday.  Below, the last week performance of each major index is shown:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  When an early drive lower failed to take out the Thursday low, instead sharply reversing one tick ahead of the low, buyers reacted and stepped in.  Then, in the afternoon they became initiative, eventually closing the day out near last Thursday’s midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5837.75.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 5837.25, setting up a move to target 5831 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers lurch up through overnight high 5878, trading up to 5884 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher.  Buyers sustain price above 5884 setting up a move to target 5900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Thursday low overnight before settling into balance.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out slightly worse than expected.

There are no other major economic events scheduled for today.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Price began the day gap down and we pushed lower off the open, gap-and-go.  Then we continued lower, pushing down into the 7/13 range before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5789.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5761.  Look for buyers down at 5753.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers trade up to 5813.25 before we reverse and turn lower.  We take out Thursday low 5783.25 briefly before two way trade ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work up to 5827 then sustain trade in this range, triggering a rally up to 5854.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower, nonstop, overnight, in a slow and steady manner.  The overnight session held inside of Wednesday’s price range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After beginning the day with a significant gap down, an early attempt lower stalled out just below overnight low.  Then we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower.  Look for sellers to press down through Wednesday low 5861.75 and continue lower, down to 5846.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 5835.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5922.75 then continue higher, up through overnight high 5924.50.  Look for sellers up at 5938.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower all night after our authoritarian leader took a hard, nuclear stance against the petulant nation of North Korea.  Price worked down near last week’s lows, but has not yet breached them.

The economic calendar is light today but crude oil inventory at 10:30am may carry more weight considering we may be headed to war.  There’s also a 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  It will be interesting to see how that government debt is received with nukes being so casually discussed.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap down that was quickly bought up.  Buyers continued to initiate risk, pressing well-up-into the hard selling back on 7/27.  Then, the bids dried up, and we reversed the entire day’s range, making a new session low, pushing us neutral, then closing near low-of-day, earning the extreme designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower.  Look for buyers down at 5841 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2, a return to the ‘scene of the crime’.  Buyers press into the overnight inventory and work up through overnight high 5919.25.  They continue higher, up to 5938 to see if sellers meant business yesterday.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5805.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight during a balanced session.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week began with a gap up that sellers were unable to fill.  Once sellers failed, buyers were inspired to initiate fresh risk, pressing the market higher, slowly, for the remainder of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5933.25.  From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5937.75.  Look for sellers up at 5942.25 then two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down to 5913 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the weekly gap down to 5898, then continue lower, down to 5888 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session that took out last Friday’s high.

The economic calendar is light all week.  Today we have only a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, then Consumer Credit at 3pm.  Our planet is experiencing a somewhat uncommon phenomenon however.  Several parts of Europe and Asia will be able to view a partial lunar eclipse.  The alignment can fuss with the waves generated on land, and perhaps the waves generated by humans on the stock exchange.  There is no objective proof to back up this claim.

Last week the Dow Jones cruised higher, the Russell lower, the S&P marked time, and the NASDAQ had consistent morning selling pressure but no real follow through in the afternoons.  Here is the performance of each major index next week:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  Normal days are statistically uncommon, occurring about 5% of the time.  We printed a normal day on Thursday AND Friday.  Oddly calm.  Both days began with a gap up that was quickly resolved by sellers.  The selling was dynamic Friday morning, creating an initial balance so wide it was not taken out for the remainder of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5898.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5894.75.  Look for buyers down around 5880 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5921.50 and continue higher to 5932 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5841 before two way trade ensues.

Note: Today’s partial lunar eclipse is merely an opening act to the total solar eclipse that will occur over North America on August 21st.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked slightly higher overnight before balancing out.  This is the fifth gap up we have seen this week.  At 8:30am Non-farm Payroll data was slightly better than expected.  So the the reaction is mute.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal day, which is anything but.  They only occur about 5% of the time.  The day began with a gap up and sellers pushed hard off the open.  Then, the rest of the day was spent trading inside the range established during the first hour of trade.  Balanced.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close teh gap down to 5889.50.  From here, we continue lower, down through overnight low 5881.  Buyers show up just below and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers push down to 5840.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5906.50 and continue higher, up to 5942 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up, the fourth gap up this week, after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session.  Several companies posted stronger-than-expected earnings, including Tesla:

Tesla Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $(1.33) vs $(1.80) Est., Sales $2.79B vs $2.55B Est

At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Service/Non-manufacturing Composites and Factory Orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up.  We briefly probed the weekly high then reversed and drove lower.  The gap was filled and we continued lower, down to the lower ATR band before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press off the open and probe the Wednesday high 5935.50.  Look for sellers up at 5942.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5910.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5895.75.  Look for buyers down around 5870 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press below last Thursday’s low 5844.75.  Look for buyers down at 5840.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on normal volume.  Price spiked higher Tuesday afternoon after Apple reported earnings well above analyst expectations.

Apple Reports Q3 EPS $1.67 vs $1.57 Est., Sales $45.4B vs $44.89B Est. at 16:30:24

At 8:15am ADP Employment change data came out below expectations.

USA ADP Employment Change for Jul 178.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 158.0K

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and sellers quickly worked into the overnight inventory to close the gap.  Then we spent the rest of the day marking time, waiting for Apple earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher.  Look for buyers to work up through overnight high 5947.50 and tag 5962.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the Apple earnings move and trade down through overnight low 5885.75.  Look for buyers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 5962.75 setting up a move to target 5980.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Note: Despite the IndexModel coming into the week with a bearish bias, we are back to a neutral stance after the stronger-than-expected Apple earnings.  If sellers manifest Hypo 2, then we can consider returning to leaning bearish.

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday, the first trading day in August, gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price worked higher and held inside the Monday range, coming into balance around midnight New York.  At 8:30am Personal Consumption data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing/Employment and Construction Spending at 10am.  At 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off 4-week T-bills, then Apple reports earnings after closing bell.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The week began with a gap up.  Sellers pressed into the gap and closed it, then continued down through overnight low, ultimately testing the low-end of value (set last week) before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open.  Look for sellers to step in around 5906.50 and begin working lower to close the gap down to 5890.25.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5875.50.  A bid steps in just below and two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5915.50 and work up to 5920.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down through 5860.75 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to probe below last Thursday’s low 5844.75, potentially setting up a move to target 5841 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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