NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of the first week of November gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight in a series of three rotations. The first lasted until about 8pm and did not take out Thursday low. The second took out the low by a bit. The third pressed a bit lower, nearly tagging the Wednesday high. At 8:30am non-farm payroll data came out better than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering along the Thursday low.

There are no other economic events today. Investors are likely watching for more clarity on the final decision on the Presidential election.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a pro gap up, trading up at levels unseen since October 14th. THe range was tight for the first few hours, with sellers making the first move out of initial balance. Buyers controlled the tape from about 12:45pm New York onward though, pressing through the range and going range extension up. After going neutral price worked back to the midpoint. Then we ramped back up and closed near the high during the closing settlement.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and reclaim the Thursday low 11,972.75 then continue higher, closing the gap up at 12,108.50. Look for sellers up at 12,147.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject a move back into Thursday low 11,972.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 11,868.25. Look for buyers down at 11,774.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 12,200 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the day after US elections up a quick +400 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy for most of the evening, but pressing higher. Then around 10pm New York a strong bid entered the market and drove price higher. The buying nearly took us to levels unseen in 10 sessions before stalling out up near the 10/21 highs. From there price reversed the entire gain and traded back to the Tuesday high. Buyers rejected a move back into the Tuesday range around 3am and we spent the rest of the Globex session rotating higher, but not exceeding the high print set around 1o:15pm. At 8:30am both ADP employment change and trade balance data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the 10/21 midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up in range and after a brief two way auction initiative buyers stepped in and drove price higher, driving higher and close the gap left behind last Thursday. Just beyond that open gap responsive sellers showed up and we worked into a tight flag for several hours. Around 2:15pm sellers rotated price back down to the daily midpoint and buyers defended. There was a steady rally into the end of the day but no new high was made. We ended the session back down near the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and work a half gap down to 11,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 11,224.25. Sellers take out overnight low 11,224.75 on their way to tagging 11,200. Look for buyers down at 11,159 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 gap and go higher. Trade up to 11,818.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into election day with a slight  gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:45am New York when buyers stepped in and broke range higher. The buying stalled before taking out the Monday high, and as we approach cash open, price is hovering about 60 points above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have factory orders at 10am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

The major event today is the U.S. Presidential election. As the results begin to crystallize this evening we may see an uptick in volatility.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up in range. The first half hour was spent gap-and-go higher but buyers stalled out two-ticks beyond the overnight high. This mini failed auction would mark session high. It was seller controlled for the next several hours—closing the overnight gap and eventually taking out overnight low and eventually taking out the Friday low by a few points. Then it appears another failed auction took hold, and from about 2:45pm onward we rallied back to the midpoint and ended on it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,072.25. Look for buyers below at 11052.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 11,181.50, tagging 11,191.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 10,980 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first day of November and the day before the presidential election gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. price was choppy overnight, chopping around the unchanged level until about 4am New York. Buyers pushed price higher around then, driving up into the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range before encountering meaningful responsive selling. Sellers defended the 11,200 level, and as we approach cash open price is hovering a bit above the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM manufacturing at 10am.

Last week was choppy through Tuesday then we saw a big move lower Wednesday. Thursday was buyers attempting to reject the big sell but then Friday prices continued to slide lower. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down near the Thursday low. A brief two-way auction saw buyers fail to press out of the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range. Instead sellers stepped in and drove down through the weekly low. The selling continued, unidirectional rotating down into the lower quadrant of the range from 09/25, a conviction buying day. Around 11:30am responsive buyers stepped in and worked a sharp rotation higher but were again overwhelmed by sellers. Sellers had price back on the lows by 3pm and we chopped along the lows until the end of the day when a ramp higher took price about a quarter of the way off the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,072.25. Look for buyers down at 11,054.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag 11,000 then continue lower, taking out overnight low 10,981.75. Look for buyers down at 10,967.25 and for two way trade ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers press a gap-and-go, trading up through overnight high 11,211.50 early on and continuing up to 11,267.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of October down -90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price dove lower during the settlement period Thursday afternoon, then continued steadily rotating lower through the night as investors reacted to several major earnings reports from Big Tech. The selling worked price down to a new weekly low, trading down to levels unseen since September 25th. Since then price has worked +200 off the lows. At 8:30am personal income and outlays data came out mixed, to slightly better than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.

The only other economic event today is consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap up and after a brief two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove price higher, rallying up into Wednesday’s midpoint before meeting any meaningful resistance. A battle ensued along Wednesday’s mid until about 1:15pm New York when buyers broke the intra-day range and drove up into the thin prices above 11,350. It was all buyers in control for the rest of the day, eventually taking out the Wednesday high by a few points before sellers re-engaged. Price was sort of fading off the highs into the close then, as noted earlier, price dove lower during settlement. We ended the session right on the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open. Look for sellers to move price down through the Thursday low 11,170.50. Look for buyers just below at the Wednesday gap 11,163.50 and for two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press off the open, closing the overnight gap up to 11,322 then continue higher up through overnight high 11,339 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 11,300 setting up a run to 11,400.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower overnight, trading in a near unidirectional manner for the entire Globex session, starting shortly after closing bell Tuesday when Microsoft reported earnings. The selling accelerated overnight however. European markets were weak. The German DAX is currently pricing its 7th biggest down day of the year. At 8:30am U.S. goods trades deficit came out better than expected but did little to stem the wave of selling hitting early markets. As we approach cash open price is hovering above Monday’s low.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up that was quickly resolved during the open two-way auction. A second attempt lower was thwarted right before 10:30am, a few ticks below the Monday closing print. Low of day was in from there. Price was range extension up by mid-morning and after several hours of chop above the daily midpoint buyers ramped into the bell.

Normal variation up. Inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap and go lower, trading down through overnight low 11,390.75 on their way to tagging 11,302 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 half gap fill. Buyers work up to Tuesday low but cannot reclaim the 11,486 level. Choppy action along the lows.

Hypo 3 buyers work a full gap fill up to 11,593 then take out overnight high 11,604 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up about +50 after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price drifted higher overnight, drifting up beyond the Monday midpoint. At 8:30am durable goods orders came out inline with expectations, and as we approach cash open price is hovering above the Monday mid.

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am followed by a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down in range, a sizeable one (about -100). Buyers quickly resolved the gap with an open drive up, taking out overnight high, closing the gap and briefly exceeding last Friday’s high before stalling out a few points below 11,700. After a responsive sell reversed the auction sellers quickly became initiative, reversing the open drive and putting us into an early range extension down. The selling continued throughout the morning and lunch, coming to a climatic end around 1:45pm when a sharp excess low formed. We were down in levels unseen since October 6th (three Tuesdays back) when we found the bid—right at the low volume node of the big market profile we built between 10/2 and 10/9. It was all buying from then on, and buyers managed to return price back near the midpoint by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,500.50. Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,478.25. Look for buyers down at 11,424.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go, trading up though overnight high 11,566 and tagging 11,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 11,700 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the final week of October gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price opened gap down Sunday evening, rotating lower, bouncing once, then rotating lower a second time—taking out the Friday low. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside Friday’s range, along the low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a big sell Monday. Downward pressure through Thursday morning then a minor relief rally into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up in range that sellers drove down into on the open, quickly resolving the gap and continuing lower into the bottom quadrant of Thursday’s range. Price was choppy through about noon, pressing range extension down along the way but never taking out the Thursday low. The afternoon was all buyers. A steady rotation up eventually recovered the early selling and a new high of day way made near the close. Closed near the highs.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 11,642 on the way to closing the overnight gap at 11,661. Look for sellers up at 11,700 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 11,543 and tag 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 11,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight until about 7:30pm when a sharp sell-spike hit, likely related to some of the COVID-19 relief talks coming out. The move stalled just a few ticks above the current low print down at 11,585 which was set around 5am Wednesday. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly better than expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the middle of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 1-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap up.Sellers resolved the small gap during the open before a strong buy spike sent price up near the Tuesday high. This would be all the rally we could muster, the auction stalled and fell to a new low of day. The action was choppy, staying inside of Tuesday’s range, making time as investors wait to hear updates on the relief bill. The session ended with price smack in the middle of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 11,591 setting up a move to target 11,558.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a gap fill up to 11,695.25 then continue higher, trading up through overnight high 11,705.75 on their way to tagging Monday’s naked VPOC at 11,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price shot higher overnight, driving unidirectional up from closing bell until about 8pm New York. The rest of the session was spent balancing down in the lower quadrant until about 8am when sellers made a push out of the Globex range. At 8:30am housing starts and permits came out in line with expectations (which remain high). As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Monday’s range.

There are no other important economic events scheduled today. Some low-impact Fed speak is due out in the afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a slight gap up. A brief open-two-way auction took place right along Friday’s volume point of control before sellers stepped in and drove down into the overnight gap and took out the Friday low in the same swoop. Initially buyers stepped in ahead of the Thursday (weekly) low however, and there was a battle along the lows until about 2pm when sellers overwhelmed the bid and the auction continued lower. Of note, the daily VPOC never shifted lower from those mid-day battle levels—it remains near last week’s low. The selling continued however, trading down right to the key fibonocci level right at 11,600, that we see if we draw a retrace from the the 10/6 low to the 10/13 high. We ended the session on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,648.75. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 11,633.50. Look for buyers down at 11,558.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 11,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 11,753 setting up a move to tag the Monday VPOC at 11,800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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