For the second year in a row I blew massive gains towards the end of the year, underachieving. Following big years from 2008-2010 (60%, 90%, 60%), I was mired in mediocrity in 2011 with a measly 6% return and I am careening lower in 2012, up just 11%–down from +36%.
How did it happen and what the fuck is going on?
Answer: really unfortunate timing, greed, hubris, lack of resolve and stupidity.
That just about sums it up.
See you fuckers in 2013!!!
(mildly kidding)
I will now list my biggest losers by dollar value.
DECK– greedy fucker I was taking on this cocksucker, after knowing they were going to miss earnings. I was a deer in headlights. Chalk this one up to stupidity.
SWHC– the events at Sandy Hook elementary clearly had an adverse effect on this stock. It just so happened, SWHC was a 20% position of mine at the time of the tragedy, truly unfortunate timing to be long a gun stock.
VXX– I lose fucking millions in this stock every year, BUT NO MORE. I’d rather deep dry my head than buy this again. Stupidity.
SVU– my thesis here was to be long into some sort of buyout. To put it plainly, I got shaken out, and as a result, fucked myself–because the stock came roaring back shortly thereafter. Lack of resolve.
CPST– I held this stock throughout 2011, waiting for a turn around– but it never happened. Finally, I booked the loss in 2012. I have to chalk this one up to hubris.
JIVE– retarded timing on this one. Stupidity.
UA– This is my 7th biggest loss in 2012 and I only lost 4 points in the stock. I stopped out above $50, after realizing my timing was off. Although this loss was the result of greed and bad timing, it should be noted that I do not let many stocks fall too far before cutting losses.
Now for my biggest gains.
ANR– Going into the 2012 Presidential elections I executed a series of perfectly timed coal trades, ANR being my best.
CTRP– I executed this trade in the summer and it came and went in a blink of an eye. I had massive size in the trade and banked coin quickly, then vamoosed the fuck out of there.
WNR– had I held this stock from my basis of $14, I’d be singing a different tune right now. It was my #1 thesis trading call, bullish on refiners when no one else wanted to touch them. Well played.
NAK– This was another Romney play and I fucking nailed this for 80%. I just sold my last piece the other day for a pettily 18%.
GSVC– This was my original social media play, before all of the fucked up ipo’s. I played this like a BAUS, from $12-$18 and never looked back.
ALJ– another refinery play, banked coin and left for good.
YELP– This stock defied logic and reason, blasting higher as Facebook, ZNGA and GRPN plunged. I got in as low as $15 and liquidated, never looking back, north of $27. I was very adamant about the name.
EL– I leveraged up on this one and played it fast from $53-$59.
BZH– I sold this yesterday, playing it from the $14’s to $16.65.
Those were my biggest winners and losers. There were numerous other winners and losers, but none of great substance. I overtraded because I am paranoid as hell, thinking the market in on the verge of collapse on a minute by minute scale. And, I should NEVER play a stock into earnings, unless I am prepared to average down 20% lower. Clearly, I cannot continue this pattern of paranoid greed and stupidity, for it is a combination for acute failure.
My greatest strength is market timing. With the help of The PPT overbought/oversold algorithms, I’ve been able to time the market better than most. However, due to the individuality of stocks, coupled with my lack of broad diversification. I’ve had the unfortunate experience of booking losses, even when being right. Hence the inverse of “The Fly’s” mantra.
I don’t like the approach of owning 20 stocks, with 3-5% weightings, because it leaves one open to sheer fuckery should the market plunge–due to the difficulty in selling all of those stocks in a timely fashion.
Back in 2009-2010, some of my biggest winners were ETFs. I believe it is time for me to start implementing the use of the ETF universe (yet) again, one that I am keenly aware of and well versed. I maintain a complete database of useful ETFs inside The PPT and I will be putting them to use in 2013, utilizing my gift of market timing.
The market will always be unforgiving to those who bet big and bold. You might make some outrageous trades and come out the other end successful; but there will be a consequence to that success: hubris. You will try to repeat past successes and become frustrated when things go against you. You will believe yourself to be infallible, and when things go awry, you will bet bigger and lose. The gains will be bigger and so will the losses. Hence, you will live the life of an investor crackhead, dependent on a rush to fulfill your degenerate desires.
Walk away from that path in favor of a methodical one. Take my word for it.
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