Friday, December 9, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,875 Blog Posts

Forced Sale: $SWHC

I literally had a mini client revolt this morning, with my larger share holders demanding immediate sale of SWHC. What could my rebuttal have been? “Wait until this whole thing blows over, SWHC will be hitting new highs in no time at all?”

Shit, I couldn’t muster up the arrogance to explain that SWHC is likely 100% undervalued. It doesn’t matter. They don’t want to make money in the stock. I imagine a lot of people are facing a similar dilemma today and will continue to ponder the meaning of being long a gun maker, post Newtown. Truth be told, I am happy to be done with it, even though it resulted in a massive, stinging, loss of more than 20%.

The only thing left to do is to move on and pick up the pieces.

With the proceeds, I doubled my BZH position and started a new one in HMC, as part of my long Japan thesis. Other Japanese stock of interest are NMR, TM and even SNE.

Bottom line: I fucked up and should’ve sold SWHC on Friday. Frankly, I was in a state of shock and really didn’t feel like addressing the issue. But I’m done with it now and will try my best to regain the losses.

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  1. acehood

    Ironic they’d have no trouble investing in drug companies that produce the drugs 90% of these shooters are on…

    • The Fly

      Is that a conversation worth pursuing?

      • metalleg

        You did the right thing. It’s not an argument you can win so why make it? People are passionate about their positions and ultimately, it makes you look bad to be taking the non-herd mentality position, even though it is very practical. It’s all emotion and you can’t argue against it. Kind of like political debates.

        I got into the gun control discussion this morning on my train commute and quickly recognized that I would never make my point and convince them to them and those I was conversing with would think I’m an idiot so I cut off the discussion.

      • Jakegint

        I think if “that shooter” was on the appropriate drugs, he would not have been “that shooter.”

        Don’t you have any friends with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder?

        The drugs get better every year…


      • Frog

        Some kinds of drugs do indeed get better every year. Others not so much.

        Some people think that everyone even a bit unstable should be on drugs. Others note that sometimes people commit violent acts while on them. But the most violent folks may have committed their crimes whether they were on drugs or not– not due to drugs but due to the mental disorder that they already had before they ever took the drugs.

        One problem may be that some (not all) anti-depressant drugs don’t work. A number of studies show that certainsome anti-depressants do not work any better than placebo (sugar pills).

        Even if the drugs do eventually work, often the patient has to try a number of them before finding the one that helps with their own particular biochemistry. Complex issue.

        • Jakegint

          Psychotics don’t take anti-depressents, they take anti-psychotics.

          For the most part, the only people depressives kill is themselves.


        • Frog

          Somewhat true but there is more to the story. Many people take both anti-depressants & anti-psychotics because they have more than one mental health diagnosis.

          There have been psychotic shooters who were taking SSRI anti-depressants. Because of this, some people have jumped to the conclusion that the violence was caused by the anti-depressant. Not necessarily so.

          It is true that, for the most part, the only people depressives kill is themselves. But there are exceptions– usually where the depressive person has other diagnoses as well.

  2. flicker

    Fly…I know a couple of gun dealers in my area. They both are begging SWHC for more inventory. We are seeing a full blown run on the gun stores. Does this mean buy the stock? The answers is yes! But when?

    • The Fly

      I know the fundies are great. But if my shareholders are revolting, many of them hard and callous like me, I can’t imagine any institutional support for the stock until some sort of gun control bill is passed.

      • youknowitsme

        Screw your shareholders man! Talk sense into the retards (sorry retards). $SWHC is one falling knife that I am willing to catch here. The majority of revenues comes from handgun sales…

        • The Fly

          It’s a lose-lose conversation.

          Ultimately, it’s their money.

        • Cascadian

          I’m holding a little SWHC, but I think it probably goes to $5 before bouncing back. People are selling just because they are sick to their stomache. Excessive selling drives stock down.

        • Jakegint

          There will be no “gun control legislation.”

          People don’t buy what the media sells anymore.

          It’s quite ironic, however, to hyperbolic rags like The New York Daily News exploit the shit out of this massacre in full and glorious color on page one and then call for a gun boycott on page 2.

          But watch, when the next wackjob get all their page one publicity by killing 50 people with an ammonia bomb, they will be calling for federal lockdowns of fertilizer suppliers on page 2.

          Irony is for writers like Eric Blair, not the lockstep authoritarians he wrote about….


        • Cascadian

          There will be some watered down gun control legislation. Take off the cosmetics that make a semi-automatic rifle look like an assault weapon. Outlaw large magazines. Restrict certain types of bullets. Somethning along those lines will pass for feel good purposes.

        • Full Retard

          Majority of sales are military in various nations.

  3. walktothecabin

    Win big on the next trade!

  4. Zero Dark Kitty

    Gun makers should go private. They will be scapegoated worse than tobacco

    ABC News story:
    “Newtown Shooting: Investment Firm Drops Stake in Bushmaster Group”

  5. Patrick

    I’m stuck in this bitch. I suppose the selling will stop at zero.

  6. jg

    what’s your ytd return this year?

  7. heaterman

    Fools they are. There is absolute panic buying going on right now because the flaming retards (Feinkenstein & Co.) are talking gun control again. SWHC/RGR are going no where but up. You should have seen the line at the local gun dealer Saturday.
    This is the impetus x 2 that drove these companies to new highs in the first place. Fear, rational or not, that 0bama is going to restrict citizen ability to purchase firearms and ammunition.
    Contrarian? Maybe.
    That being said, if your clients have a “moral” objection to owning firearms companies, I would suggest that you ask them to apply that principal and logic to all of their investments. They will soon own nothing at all as any product made can be abused in some form or another.

  8. joe

    only problem i have with stocks like SNE, i know they’ve bottomed but that doesn’t mean they’re going to go up..especially after the dead cat bounce is done and fundamentals start to matter

    not to mention overhead resistance measured in years

  9. Mr. Cain Thaler

    It must be wonderful, having people who pay you to manage their money telling you how you should do your job…

  10. TraderCaddy

    Tell them you plowed the proceeds into Ricks Cabaret (RICK). Lap dances are a growth industry without the guns (so to speak).

  11. Juans Construction & Catering Co

    Dear Senor Fly,
    Does this mean you will be paying us
    again in pesos for the work we are doing on you casa ?

  12. tom

    who still owns this stock besides me- traded more than outstanding shares since earnings

  13. Cascadian

    How are your chili rellenos?

  14. Mr. Partridge

    Sorry to hear this, did they wanted to get out due to ethical concern or because the stock is falling hard?
    One of the reasons I am in ETFs in my trading port – I want to be concern only with beta and trend not with some company short term problems….

  15. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    SWHC’s black rifle sales are just a tiny portion of what they do. Pistols, police / military gear and training are the biggest piece of their pie. And they sell internationally to about 50 countries.
    Panic selloff.

    • JTU

      That’s what I think. Institutions are selling off based on morality pressures from their clients as witnessed in Fly’s case.

      • The Eye-Talian Stallion
        The Eye-Talian Stallion

        Same with RGR. Their black rifle sales are a drop in the bucket. And the SR556 is heavy and too expensive so sales are anemic.

        In any event tell an American they can’t have something and blammo, it flies off the shelf.

      • Jakegint

        Fly’s clients are not selling off for morality reasons… where did you get that from the above?


        • The Fly

          Clients are uneasy about the uncertainty

        • JTU

          Maybe not Fly’s clients in particular but in the business news investment funds are dropping gunseller stocks.
          Cerberus Capital reported today they were selling for ethical reasons and that it was bad for PR.

        • Jakegint

          LOL @ Cerebrus selling anything for “ethical reasons.”

          More like “Benjamin reasons.”


        • JTU

          “They don’t want to make money in the stock. I imagine a lot of people are facing a similar dilemma today and will continue to ponder the meaning of being long a gun maker, post Newtown”
          It sounds like it could be a morality issue to me!

        • Jakegint

          Again, that’s like saying… “I can’t imagine someone being long Dow Chemical after Oklahoma City.”

          You do realize that most guns are put to very good purposes and that if police didn’t have them, they’d be of little use to us, yes?

          I’m amazed at how, whenever something like this happens, we find out how many people live in unicorn land.

          There will always be violence in this life. In fact, you should plan for it.


        • JTU

          Hey, I own SWHC! I believe the sell off is a knee jerk reaction but sentiment is driving the shares down and who knows for how long?

        • speedlet

          You are implicitly acknowledging that guns are immoral with this statement, JakeGint.

          Please report to your nearest GOP-NRA talking points indoctrination center for remedial education.

        • Po Pimp

          Glad to see you are speaking for his clients now. I guess speaking for everyone in the free world wasn’t enough already?

  16. TraderCaddy

    Maybe Taser (TAS) gets a bump if their is legislation re: certain weapons?

    • ottnott

      TASR will someday be bankrupted by lawsuits. So far, the people their customers have killed have mostly been poor or of moderate means. Police have frequently zapped people who didn’t respond to commands because they were deaf, developmentally disabled, or temporarily unresponsive due to a seizure or other medical issues.

      Eventually, one of the dubious zappings that ends in death will involve a victim who is wealthy or prominent enough to bring in top-level attorneys and major media attention. That will be the beginning of the end.

  17. usernamenottaken

    Ultimately customers drive every business. If they don’t want your product you can’t stock it.

  18. The Eye-Talian Stallion
    The Eye-Talian Stallion

    Just got off the phone with a major retailer, they sold all of their AR-15’s this morning. How is this bad for business?

  19. Cris


    where do you see gold and silver to be at?

    the run down today, do you think it’s someone selling in large quantity during thin markets?

  20. Heaterman

    On a lighter note, some mild humor may be in order amidst all the gloom and despair.

    Did you hear about the old fart that mixed up his Rogain and Viagra? He had hair growing everywhere but it was too stiff to comb.

    I’ve about had it with all the depressing crap………

  21. TraderCaddy

    Buy PM stocks mid to late AM on 12/31 and sell at 3:59 PM.
    I have seen this picture before.
    Also maybe OIH etf.

    • Mr. Partridge

      short PM stocks… if you got the balls…. or watch them die if you don’t 🙂 insert evil laugh here

  22. speedlet

    God bless your shareholders.

  23. noodleboy

    Thank you for bringing XIV to my attention

  24. jackrabbit mcgee

    Silly, selling the rumors. I bought a boat load of swhc. Some Funds may drop them, they will still continue to bang this holiday season and sales are through the roof. They will continue. With the ban on assault weapons, they aren’t going to take them away from people, just threaten to impose new restrictions (which won’t pass) and even if passed the people that already owned them will be “grandfathered” in meaning it would be ok to keep your previously purchased ar-15 or Ak47 Pre banned weapon. But nothing is going to happen, mainly because republicans will not allow it. Regardless on all these rumors, guess what, every person that was ever pondering getting a handgun or assault rifle (which SWHC makes so many of) will now be pushed to get one, less get gayed be new banning policy- Which will never come to fruition anyhow. This all means more panic buying of their products, more panic selling of the stock. Technicals are there, no reason to pull out on some fucking rumors.

  25. noodleboy

    Instagram is fucked, FB lower?

  26. Marc David

    I don’t mean to start a debate here or to post something that is taken as offensive.

    But why not buy this stock (as it’s looking way undervalued) and donate it next year to a charity that benefits the school or the family?

    The owner would get a write-off and the receipient would have some tangible value which they could use to do some good.

    This is an awful situation. There must be a way to do some good?

    I’m only thinking in terms of stocks here folks. Not the larger issue.

    • Testicules

      The gun industry itself should make announcements SOON on a Public Program for PR alone. I understand not donating directly to the Families (admitted liability) but Mental Health/Education/training…hell even a Scholarship fund

  27. jacob

    This is what is wrong with the stock market..HFTs and monopoly controlled by big money funds..stealing money from retailers always trumps fundamentals and anything else that REALY MATTERS in this market…only to get worse with HFT/algo/rich get richer system, will implode all soon..

  28. rogue wave

    If your clients were so smart, they’d be managing their own money.
    Would they also give pointers to their brain surgeon?

    Owning SWHC is not = to condoning senseless murder. Fucking idiots should let you do your job.
    Of course they won’t, so you had no choice.

  29. Heaterman

    IS THIS TRUE!!???

    “Notice how GE_NBC is keeping The father of Connecticut school shooter Adam Lanza, Peter Lanza, was the tax director for General Electric, a corporation that paid -0- taxes on 14.2 billion dollars in profits last year. Out of the equation!

    Peter Lanza was scheduled to testify in front of the Senate this week! for the ongoing global LIBOR scandal. In what could only be described an amazing coincidence, the father of Colorado Batman shooter James Holmes, Robert Holmes, was also a LIBOR witness in his position with FICO as risk assesment auditor”.

    If so what is the connection? There HAS to be a connection.

  30. Testicules

    I took a small position in SWHC, if anything at all happens it will be a ban on the amount of rounds/clips, possible more stringent rules for used gun sales (auctions/swap meets).
    The PR folks (Gun Lobby as well) should get out in front of this with a call for greater education/training and support Mental Health Care etc
    Even if it’s nothing more than smoke and mirrors, they need to get Public on this fast

  31. Mr. Partridge

    what an awesome bullish day again

  32. razorsedge

    getting owned today… gold. fuck.

  33. jackrabbit mcgee

    How did you like today’s 9% pop?
    You guys sold. Fucking Fail

  34. Rob

    TF, just going quickly thru the comments I didnt see this mentioned. At what point would you sell you were down 20% and say this was a forced sell so I am guessing you were prepared for an even bigger loss. I did see you reported a 17% return for the year, very good!