Friday, May 6, 2016
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
12,782 Blog Posts

Bad News Ended Up Being Good News After All

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So the weaker than expected payrolls ended up being a net positive for the crazy people sloshing money in and out of the market. The prevailing wisdom is that the Fed will hold off until September to hike rates–due to this report. I believe the Fed will move in June, as my thesis has taken a turn from cynical to diabolically cynical.

It is the tradition of this great nation to implode its economy, just before a new President is coronated. This way, the new President can move with force in the first 100 days, working under a ‘mandate’ by the American people to right the ship.

Our elected leaders are caitiffs of the first order, wanton degenerates and disgusting perverts. But I digress.

Stocks lifted throughout the day and everyone will go home happy, like morons sucking on an iced cream pop. My bubble basket closed down 1%, thanks in large part to biotech. I closed out my XLE short yesterday, so my total market exposure is only 25%, which is invested in TLT.

The markets have closed now. Go in peace.

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The Geniuses at RBC Have Lowered Their Price Target of $KMPH, Post Apocalypse

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The biotech Einsteins at RBC have assessed their price target of KMPH and decided that their price target was a little ‘excessive’ in light of the 55% drubbing the stock is undergoing during today’s trade.

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But don’t worry lads, they’re effervescently optimistic about the future.

RBC Capital Mkts lowers their KMPH tgt to $14 from $22. The FDA Advisory Committee voted 16 to 4 to support approval for Apadaz but 18 to 2 against inclusion of an abuse-deterrent claim in the label. While the outcome is disappointing, it does not speak to the overall platform value of co’s prodrug technology; mgmt will work with FDA ahead of the June 9 PDUFA. Firm expects Apadaz to be approved, with the AdCom voting overwhelmingly in favor for FDA to approve the prodrug. But the key was the abuse-deterrence labeling of Apadaz, and the AdCom was decisively opposed. The crux of the argument lay with co’s clinical data, which the AdCom indicated displayed “lack of evidence” of a clear distinction of abuse deterrence.

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The Important Matter of Solar Panel Peddling Scam Artists

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I’m sure plenty of you homeowners out there deal with the incessant parade of two bit salesmen coming to your door in search of a sale. Recently, I was entreated to a very special Bernard Maddof character, who was from the solar company VSLR in search of personal fortune.

He was most likely employed straight out of a prison facility, white male , mid 40s, wearing an orange and black construction vest.

Upon opening the door, I saw that he had a Pg&e (my local electric utility) clipboard with him, with an official document facing me, from Pg&e, attached to it.

He asked me ‘ hello Sir, have you seen the construction trucks passing by the neighborhood recently?’

Because I have an aversion to door-step salesmen, immediately, I denied seeing anything. Had God himself been down the block creating humans with a magic staff, I’d deny seeing it too, if asked by a fucking porch planted salesman.

Then I spotted his ID tag and it said Vivint Solar. I shot back with force “not interested.”

He responded, wearing a fucking construction company hard hat, “excuse me? What do you mean? I’m from the local utility and we’re seeing if you qualify for renewable energy.”

I interrupted him and said “you’re from a solar company, selling those hideous panels and sticking them onto innocent people’s roofs. Again, I’m not interested.”

He shot back in a smug, condescending manner  “you’re not interested in green energy, even though it’s paid for by the government?”

I said “yep, not interested.”

In a valiant last ditch effort, with a chuckle that he probably learned in prison, he said “I don’t even know if you’re qualified. That’s why I’m here, to assess your home. We have a contract with your utility, Pg&e.”

I interrupted him again and said that I didn’t like ‘green energy’ (extra Cat in the Hat) and that ‘I  loathed solar panels with every fiber of my existence.’ Moreover, and indelibly so, ‘had you offered to pay for those panels and then continue to pay me a monthly fee to store those blights that you call solar panels on my roof, I’d still tell you that I wasn’t at all interested.’

‘Okay, I guess you don’t like green energy.’

‘Indeed.’

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My Bubble Basket is Collapsing Again

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I created the Bubble Basket in 2014 after the tech wreck that harangued markets from February through April. Truth be told, I got the idea from David Einhorn’s basket. I did my best to model after it and have updated it with fresh picks every 6 months.

The basket is designed to represent the riskiest stocks in the market. These aren’t penny stocks, but instead liquid high valuation growth and biotech names that people love to blow themselves up in.

I’ve found it to be an excellent harbinger of doom and risk acceptance. People sell these stocks when the horizon is bleak. They buy them with the fever of rabid dogs when decadence and splendor rules investor sentiment.

Bear in mind, this is a portfolio of 35 stocks. Year to date, it’s down 23% on a median basis. Moreover, it’s down 2.5% today and -10% over the past month.

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The market isn’t as genteel as the catamites on the teevee would lead you to believe. More importantly, the market is screaming SELL, something that is also not being reported by the catamites on the teevee.

Lucky for you, yours truly is on the ark, always on the lookout for a storm.

I am 75% cash, 25% ark aka TLT.

NOTE: The components of the Bubble Basket, as well as other portfolios that I maintain, can be found in Exodus. We’re running free trials now through Sunday, so go check it out.

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SHOCKER: Zimbabwe Runs Out of Cash; Races to Print its Own U.S. Dollar

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Most of you are too busy idling on porn sites to know the history of Zimbabwe and how this country managed to fuck itself.

Back in 2009, they were so fucked via inflation, they printed 100 trillion notes. Since then, they switched to the U.S. Dollar and South African rand and everything was going swimmingly until trade deficits and wanton savagery began to take its toll.

Now the country is completely fucked, out of cash again.

The only thing left to do, naturally, is TO RESUME THE PRODUCTION OF THE “U.S. DOLLAR”, so that people can buy groceries and pay rent.

A recent shortage of foreign notes led Reserve Bank Governor John Mangudya to unveil a raft of radical measures on Wednesday, including limiting withdrawals to $1,000 or 20,000 South African rand per day.

Mangudya said that the central bank would also print its own dollar-equivalent bond notes – “which are currently at the design stage” – to ease the cash crunch.

Mangudya denied the new banknotes were a step towards re-introducing the tarnished Zimbabwe dollar, but the plan was still criticised by some experts.

“This is extremely damaging to the interests of everyone and very dangerous to the economy,” independent economist John Robertson said in Harare.

“It won’t be long before this becomes another inflation story. People will refuse to be paid their wages in bond notes.

“Shops will not accept them as they cannot be used to restock [from abroad]. I am hoping that the government can be talked out of it.”

Bond coins were introduced in Zimbabwe in 2014 to tackle the problem of small change.

The new notes in denominations of $2, $5, $10 and $20 will play a similar role, acting as tokens.

All men were created equal, some more equal than others.

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Trump Supports Britain’s #BREXIT From EU

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Trump is taking the opposite view of Obama and is urging England to exit the EU, something that is up for a vote in mid June.

Naturally, the globalist cabal are freaking out over the specter of Britain’s exit from the EU. It would serve as a major blow to the alliance and might lead to other exits in the future. Greece comes to mind when thinking about who might be next.

“I would say that they’re better off without it, personally, but I’m not making that as a recommendation — just my feeling,” Trump said Thursday in a Fox News interview. “I know Great Britain very well, I know the country very well, I have a lot of investments there. I would say that they’re better off without it, but I want them to make their own decision.”

‘Horrible Thing’

Trump cited immigration as a reason why Britain would be better off outside the EU.

“I think that migration’s been a horrible thing for Europe,” Trump said. “A lot of that was pushed by the EU.”

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The Fort Mcmurray Inferno Continues to Rage; Up to 1 Million Barrels of Oil Offline

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This fire is out of control. The entire city of 88,000 has been evacuated, in an area which houses Canada’s largest oil production, filled with filthy tar sands.

As a result, up to 1 million barrels of Candian crude are off the market, providing succor to an already stressed oil market.

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Firefighters continue to battle the huge wildfire in Alberta, Canada, which has unfortunately spread

Thousands more have fled hundreds of miles away as a result
This fire starts on Sunday

It’s affecting oil production in Western Canada’s oil sands… something over 500,000 barrels of oil production per day, to as much as 1 mln barrels per day, have been cut

And even more output could be cut as a result of this wildfire
Suncor Energy (SU) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are two companies that have cut production in the region
Fort McMurray is in the heart of Alberta’s oil sands
Alberta oil sands has the third largest oil reserves in the world, after of Venezuela and Saudi Arabia

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Gold Soars!

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The gold bugs think the economy is falling to pieces. As such, they’ve resorted to ripping out offers, sending the ancient metal through the roof.

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Look for an insane rally in gold stocks today, who are, by far, the best performers of 2016 thus far.

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$PDCE Misses Earnings By Massive Amount; Crude Oil Production Soars 44%

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These companies do not give a shit about the price drop in crude. They believe it to be a joke. They walk around in their 10-gallon hats with peevish, smug, confidence–convinced the spot prices will recover very quickly. They are to be rewarded when crude plants itself back at $100. All of the real estate in Sugarland Texas will be occupied by mega-mansions, owned by genius executives who had the courage to lever up into a massive drop in the price of crude.

The fact that this company, although smartly hedged at higher crude levels, levered up and increased production by 44% since last year is an abomination, an extreme dereliction of duty to its shareholders.

Via briefing

  • Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.89 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.78 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.11); revenues fell 37.2% year/year to $90.8 mln vs the $151.14 mln Capital IQ Consensus
  • First quarter 2016 production increased 58% to 4.6 MMBoe, or 50,216 Boe per day, compared to 2.9 MMBoe, or 32,162 Boe per day, in the first quarter of 2015
    • The increase in production over the first quarter of 2015 was primarily due to continued successful execution of our horizontal development program in the Wattenberg Field
  • The co estimates production for the first quarter of 2016 was impacted by nearly 100,000 Boe as a result of a severe late-March snowstorm that resulted in wide-spread downtime in the Wattenberg Field
  • Crude oil production of 20,965 barrels per day, a 44% increase year-over-year and representing 42% of total production

Operations Update:

  • The co turned-in-line 47 gross operated wells in the Wattenberg Field during the first quarter of 2016 and produced 47,840 Boe per day, an ~64% increase from the first quarter of 2015
  • As expected, due to the timing of both fourth quarter 2015 and first quarter 2016 turn-in-lines, average sequential production from the field decreased slightly. PDC’s average wellhead oil differential in Wattenberg was ~$6.70 per barrel for the first quarter of 2016
  • The co’s realized NGL price in the first quarter of 2016 was ~21% of NYMEX and its natural gas price was ~67% of NYMEX. In the Utica Shale, first quarter 2016 production was 2,376 Boe per day

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Huge Payrolls Miss: Non-Farm Payrolls Come in at 160k, Well Below Estimate of 207k

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You’re just gonna have to give recession a chance. On the bright side, because the economy is in the tank, missing payroll data by huge amounts, corporate earnings missing largess, the Fed should be on hold for a June rate hike.

Futures are diving lower. Let me remind you of the mental instability of Fed’s Mester and Williams. Those sick bastards might still advocate Fed rate hikes into the teeth of a deleterious recession. After all, it is by design that the economy tanks before each new President.

 

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