Oversold Bounce

I was on a call when markets doubled early gains and I got caught, fooled even, with shorts in tow. As a result of this, I am down 69bps. Knowing what to do, I covered my shorts and added to more longs in an effort to invest alongside the prevailing intra-day trend. I am, however, short oil stocks — because of weakness apparent.

I wanted markets lower — but it seems there is a chasm between what I want to happen and what is actually happening. My intent here is to halve my losses, hopefully harvest gains, and then reload some shorts into the close for the big Monday belly-flop onto the hard pavement covered with rocks and glass.

I’d place the odds of a downside reversal for today at exactly zero. Although breadth is a middling 56% — there is very good action in tech and mega cap stocks. I will need to dig into the market some more to get a more educated or sophisticated view on things.

But for now, this looks constructive.

Having traveled around Europe, which by most standards is superior to Asia, I can conclusively say that America, even with its inner city doldrums taking place thanks to foreign agents, is a far superior civilization. I think it’s important to remind people from time to time that my modus operandi is for the American people first and foremost — fuck everyone else.

Sure Putin seems like a nice fellow. He says nice things and Kim Jong Un has a really nice haircut; but at the end of the day — fuck those guys. There is an American culture that celebrates supremacy in its people and I’m here for it — but not for those fucks who’ve been in charge for the past several decades. We are at the point of busting loose in this country, from all sorts of angles. You have the ANTIFA transgenders running amok defending pedos in schools, blacks looting and shooting, and the hard right fomenting discord in a more cordial but equally maniacal way.

I suppose you can say we are well past political solutions and hard tactics need to be deployed to make permanent changes. Because of this future, I can only surmise stocks are bounded by fate to collapse. We saw a meltdown today, all to do with the increasingly arduous issues of interest rates. There are some out there who will tell you “rates don’t matter”. But you really have to ignore those people — for they do not know what they speak of.

I closed with a portfolio beta of -0.57 — net short and diversified amongst various industries — just in case one or two escape my wrath tomorrow.

I did warn you numerous times about the horrors of September. You could’ve sold a long time ago and now you have to contend with your ego crossed against your largess losses. Moron.

I closed +30bps — because I do not lose in crashing tapes — not now not ever.

These are the facts, an array of them if you will.

The $IWM is down 12% since August. The cunts in the White House have declared war on the American people in exchange for their new people’s migrating into the country. None of their priorities are central to the needs of Americans, instead they are at war and have always been at war because it’s easier to destroy than to build. Devils.

The market hasn’t come to grips with the fact that they are pathetically fearful of the plebeians only as it pertains to food and shelter. They cannot afford a slave revolt. As such, they once again place the middled class onto the slab to be cut into and dissected. Rates are higher than they need to be — because it doesn’t matter to them. NYC home sales are at a record 70% all cash deals.

They will do everything they can to sustain stock prices — but the levies are bulging and the infrastructure is weak and they’re running out of time.

DO NOT BE FOOLED by small rallies inside of larger pockets of weakness.

This is what I mean.

THREE YEAR RETURNS FOR SOME NOTABLE STOCKS

$ZM -82%
$SE -75%
$TWLO -75%
$PYPL -70%
$BABA -70%
$SQ -68%
$SNAP -63%
$MTCH -61%
$ROKU -55%
$T -47%
$VZ -44%
$SHOP -41%
$DIS -38%
$WBA -38%
$SPOT -36%
$BBY -35%
$INTC -30%
$NFLX -22%
$TGT -20%
$NKE -20%
$C -19%
$CRM -16%
$AMZN -12%

Seeing the market bid here, I have some directional longs against hedges — with the intent to closing the session net short — but nothing too extreme since I know markets need to rally.

I’ll keep this concise for the people who read me but don’t like to read.

The US 10 yr is up 14BPS to 4.48%. This means there is ZERO chance stocks are setting up to rally. The higher yields go the more fucked we become.

Russia banned the exportation of all distillates.

Refiners have rallied and oil is sharply higher again.

The NASDAQ is screaming lower, but not nearly as hard and fast as it should be. Because of this, expect a FALSE RALLY this morning followed up by a late day collapse.

I am 100% cash, +31bps thanks to large shorts — patiently waiting in the tall grass waiting to short again and bite off the heads of bullish zebras.

Listen to me —

I tried to give markets the benefit of the doubt. I closed out shorts on large red candles — placed 1% stops on longs — allocated into risk averse sub 1 beta stocks and closed the session down just 6bps.

It’s over

The NASDAQ was shell-shocked for -200 and all of the fancy bulls in their ornate pantaloons shit themselves, tripping over their LGBTQ Ukrainian flags and into alligator pits to be eaten whole.

I will tell you this now — this close was extremely ominous. As such, and my right to do so, I executed short sales into the close. Consider myself a permanent bear — always on the look out to slaughter bulls where they sit. If I find you sleeping, I will blow your brains out with my harpoon (in Minecraft of course). I do not mean to incite violence against bulls. Some of my best friends are bulls. I love those guys. But that does’t mean I want you to live.

The FOMC did not hike rates, leaving them at 5.5% — but left the the door wide open for renewed action. Bullshit. The immediate knee jerk reaction was to sell down stocks. Typically these sort of large red candles, as you see below, are great buying opps.

Believe me, I’ve shorted into them before and at times made coin. But 9 out of 10 times I got my hat handed to me. Don’t be tricked into believing collapse is happening intra-day based off some bullshit news item.

I am constructively bullish here for a number of reason. Primary concern is the cessation of rate hikes which may lend fervor to the idea that CUTS might be next on the Fed’s menu and not hikes.

That being said, I’m 30% cash, no hedges.

Yesterday the oils were sharply lower. If you were one of the people betting on $100 WTI — you got beaten to a pulp. Today, the oils are sharply higher on big dollar weakness. We have the 10yr down 4bps too, so it’s fantasy land for all of the commodity-fags.

But has it been enjoyable or even profitable?

Have a look at the price action in $RIG the past 3 weeks.

If you’re buying and holding — you have no concerns. But if you’re trading and attempting to catch alpha — you’re likely chopped up into tiny little pieces.

This is the sordid tape of today — small caps up today with NASDAQ lower and small caps wrecked tomorrow with NASDAQ higher.

Don’t lament over this price action like a little bitch. Sure there are rigged components to the market — but it’s all very methodical and can be gamed. For me, this isn’t a tape that I like to have a lot of exposure. I prefer a momentum based market over chop and if I trade heavily in chop — well then — I’ll get chopped. I’ll trade small, deploy hedges, and wait for the turn.

The great thing about being patient in a choppy tape is eventually a large break will happen and if you’re smart enough to guess the direction — you’ll cash in.

I’d like something terrific to happen in my lifetime, out of selfish concerns for myself. I do also feeeeel that I posses a special ability in various subjects and deserve a modicum of success. At the same time, I also feel that toil and punishment is good for me — clears the mind of wanton distractions and elevates me above the wastrels who do nothing but lavish themselves in comfort all day. In my head, I punch those people so hard — I create holes in them.

Markets disappointed me today because of their lackluster demeanor. Plus, I lost 1.13% — but it wasn’t my fault, see. I am busy with my fucking lawn, creating grass, taking out the weeds. I know a good many of you rely upon me for sage advice; but my interests need to be fulfilled otherwise when you really need me I won’t be of any use to you.

Nothing is happening now, other than a slow methodical drip lower.

My hopes and dreams would come true if we could get a sharp break lower. Then again, I am reminded of the necessity of toil and how getting what I want isn’t always good for me. I am +38% for the year, not happy about it or disappointed. It’s simply the byproduct of my work and proof of expertise. This isn’t a brag either. I’ve been invested in stocks for over 30 years. If I cannot figure this shit out by now — what sort of fucking human being am I, after all?

I haven’t been trading much today, more or less convalescing from my yard digging. I have more work to do out there today and cannot be concerned with western finance as we know it today. I will say, taking a look at the action — it is abysmal and boring — a deadly combo. You sit there on your laurels and next thing you know BAM — your brains are painting the wall behind you.

I can’t even figure out how I am down 1.1% today — but I am. It would appear both my shorts and longs didn’t work and I am too tired and achy to investigate it. I see the trend is UP from the morning, so I just bought a bunch of stocks, will cross my fingers, and hope the stock Gods favour me.

I closed down 10bps, fully invested and also hedge — due to my uncertainty as to the near term direction of the tape. I could’ve just cashed up and waited like a pussy. HOWEVER, I much prefer to time the market and cover my shorts or sell my longs based upon where I view the tape going tomorrow.

The small caps were HAMMERED today and the market was held up by the mega caps. We hope for a quick dissolution of the stock market and total collapse soon.

The price of oil is a key tell into the happenings of the global economy and right now it is screaming bullish. Or is it? Perhaps the war is having some effect on supply? I cannot be certain.

One thing we do know is high oil is bad for the poors. If there is one singular thing all ruling elites have avoided since the Roman Empire — it is to fuck with the price of food for the pleb class. Nothing is more detrimental to the equanimity of a society than inflation in food prices. This is why the FOMC is fanatical with rates, in an attempt to deflate food prices — especially since their corrupt nature is very transparent now and injustice wholly on display for anyone with an IQ north of 85 to review.