iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,045 Blog Posts

BOOKMARK THIS PREDICTION: 40% LOWER FROM HERE

Another fizzled rally and yet another cadre of bulls jumping in headlong to the concrete floor. Soon their heads will be bashed apart into pieces and their brains spilling out unto the hot pavement — courtesy of the very gay west and their losing war against Russia.

YOU MIGHT CHOOSE to ignore it but it’s not going away and the losses will become more elaborate and pronounced in the coming months —- as “the west” cucks themselves for NEOCON interests and blood sacrifices.

You may not realize it yet, but this is the opening salvo into another great global war and at the moment we are ill prepared for industrialized warfare.

Markets in the short term ignore these things until it can’t anymore and then we’ll get LARGE GAPS lower. The purpose of my trading now is to preserve my +54% YTD gains, whilst at the same time aim to improve upon them via incremental moves — most easily achieved in market divergences. I am hoping for another spike in energy prices, which could provide a rally in heavily beaten down shares. I will not pretend to understand all of those charts are broken and betting on oil now is most likely a losing bet.

ERGO, ALL BETS WILL BE HEDGED. We are one bad headline away from a down 10% session.

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MARKETS RALLY ON FED MINUTES

This is not a good reason to rally.

FOMC: “with inflation remaining well above the Committee’s objective, participants remarked that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the Committee’s legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability”

But we rally nonetheless, at least for now — because markets want higher. How long this rally will continue remains to be seen. I took some longs in various commodity stocks with only a 5% hedge long UVIX.

I do feeeel the commodity trade could be a trap here and oil might gap down again. Ergo, I won’t go too heavily long and will balance it out with other areas of the market. By the end of the session, my hedges will be 15-25%.

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RENEWED COLLAPSE; FULL ROUT IN COMMDOITY STOCKS UNDERWAY

The losses in commodity stocks this past month is nothing short of staggering. We have seen this before and I’d be lying to you if this wasn’t reminiscent of the great bubble collapse of 2008, where we bore witness to oil collapsing from $140 into the $30s in short order thanks to a global collapse of economic activity.

Here are some notable losses in commodity names the past month:

XOM -18%, SHEL -22%, COP -31%, RIO -25%, DE -21%, VALE -27%, FCX -36%, CNQ -29%, EOG -31%, NUE -19%, FANG -30%, MOS -28%, TECK -40%, CRK -47%, X -32%, CLF -35%, BTU -28%

You get the drift.

One would surmise these losses would abate soon.

Let’s look at DE for example.

April -9.2%
May -5.2%
June -16.3%
July to date: -4.2%

Great names have been taken to the woodshed, all due to various reasons. The primary one is America hitching itself to the losing Ukraine. Let me repeat it: we are hitching ourselves to a sure loser in a war against a world power that is gaining allies on a daily basis and the world is becoming more and more bifurcated between the liberal world order and something opposite to that effect.

Just this afternoon “the west” declared they might affix a price cap of $40-60 on Russian crude. Are they so crazy that they believe this would be accepted by Russia?

Nevertheless, I am tempted to buy commodity dips here, but would prefer to begin adding late in the afternoon. I already own OXY, hedged with UVIX. I am likely to compile a short list of stocks for ownership by the session end. My goal is to have a high sharpe on my portfolio management and avoid large drawdowns. To do this I avoid intra-day swings by being in cash and only get aggressive in the late afternoon, but never without hedges.

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Retail Boom Due to Lower Energy Prices?

The market is processing lower energy prices now, as WTI and all commodities continue to get hit based off the notion of demand destruction. It seems investors want their cake and they also want to eat it whole, betting on both demand destruction and also higher retail spending. It would BEHOOVE any of these investors to actually think this one through, seeing it makes entirely no sense. Nevertheless, the market is a genius in the long term — brainless dolt in the interim.

I had a sundry of stocks this morning that went nowhere and I moved to cash, as I always do before 9:45am, +10bps for the session. There are numerous runners in retail sensitive sectors — but I am likely to sit this one out in favor of LAMENTING my brand new existence amidst contractors and the incessant complaints of a one Mrs. Fly who would find fault in the heavenly father himself — if presented in front of us and all of his magic tricks and secrets to the universe.

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IMPERIAL COMMAND OVER THE STOCKED MARKETS; LE FLY DOES IT AGAIN

Never fooled, often right, “The Fly” did it again, turning an otherwise moribund day into one filled with joy and excitement. I closed the day +55bps, reversing a -65bps deficit, and now find myself long a sundry of retail stocks into what is almost sure to be a good trading day tomorrow.

However, due to the nature of western leadership and their wanton ineptitudes, I hedged with a 15% weight in SOXS.

The day inside Stocklabs was filled with the normal level of discord and controversy, starting off with a member sharing a loan for $650 to his brother. The only catch, this loan was in exchange for his brother’s soul, sort of like a deal with the devil, only this deal comes with a clause that it REMOVES you from your home and golfing clubs.

Other members chimed in with the usual FIRE AND BRIMSTONE nonsense, whereby a loan to a brother was on par with the bombing of Hiroshima. Most of the hardliners spit at the idea that anyone without money should be entitled to enjoy their lives, and certainly not do anything to break up the toil they’re expected to partake in, in order to pay back said loan.

After that, we delved into boats and how stupid the owners of these boats are for having them in the first place.

As all of this happened, I, once again, methodically LEANED into the market with the power of 1,000 SKELETOORS and bought stocks based off the catastrophic 10% decline in crude.

Tomorrow is another day and I am certain it will be a profitable one.

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CRUDE COLLAPSES; RETAIL SURGES

I just couldn’t help myself. The decline in WTI is now -10% and I got to thinking this steep decline would create the perception that inflation was abating and also induce retail spending to boom.

These assertions prevented me from remaining in cash and in favor of a large retail allocation. Because of this, I am now UP for the session.

The biggest movers are now found in biotech, SAAS, but also apparel, online retailers and department stores.

My best sense, markets rally on this COLLAPSE in crude. This is the type of drop that draws attention and its best not to overthink it.

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CRUDE UNDER SEVERE PRESSURE AS GLOBAL RECESSION LOOMS

WTI is down 6% now and copper is off by a staggering 4%. The NASDAQ opened down more than 200 and is bouncing off the lows now, led by stocks as stupid as RBLX and DASH. I was leaning long, luckily hedged with a 15% weighting in SOXS and went to cash and locked in a 65bps loss for the day.

What is going to happen is this: FOOLS and BELIEVOORS will be lured into this tape only yo have their heads CLEAVED off their shoulders — as the global recession narrative whirlwinds through the portfolios of FOOLS.

I will not buy CHWY or XPEV or COVID-19 vaccine plays — because I value my game plan more than the small gains and feeling of temporary success that might be gleaned from catching a pivot point higher.

I shall not be fooled — because I know we will trade materially LOWER. If you are still bullish then you are still in denial.

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EURO CRUSHED TO 20 YEAR LOWS AGAINST DOLLAR

If you thought the US had problems, take a look at energy dependent Europe. Their windmills and solar panels, apparently, can do nothing to stave off what looks like the onset of a full blown collapse and of the Euro economies.

The euro is now at a staggering $1.02 against the dollar, the lowest since 2002.

NASDAQ FUTS are -90.

What will be interesting to watch is if this economic pressure can lead to another debt crisis, on par to what we saw with the PIGS in 2012. Italian bond yields have been diverging against the Bunds and it will be important for those to tighten, otherwise the whole kit and kaboodle might come undone.

Related: the Ruble is down 10.7% against the dollar this morning.

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WESTERN DISASTER: JP MORGAN PREDICTS $380 WTI IN WORST CASE RUSSIAN SCENARIO, RUSSIA MOVES TO CUT JAPAN OFF FROM LNG

Last week the imbeciles at the EU announced a new round of sanctions against Russia — banning the importation of Russian gold. This will do absolutely nothing to Russia. And it should be noted, Russian oil exports have SPIKED since the war began.

In the midst of all this, the fucking weirdos from Australia took the time to warn us about how climate change would cause VIOLENCE against women —- or people who IDENTIFY as women.

Listen to me.

We are led by morons. I know statements like that usually drip with Dunning Krueger and I am not saying they are academically dumb people. What I am suggesting is these people, ALL OF THEM, are in fucking fantasy land — like spoiled rotten brats who’ve been entitled to have their way for so long they lost contact with the real world. These are not serious people and I don’t give a fuck what futures are doing tonight or what the market does tomorrow — I cannot bet long on this sort of leadership.

Late last week Russia moved to seize control of the Sakahelin-2 project. What’s that you ask? Nothing really — just a joint project between Russia, Japan and Shell —- adding up to 10% of Japan’s total LNG imports and 4% of the global supply of LNG.

You can see why these people want to Balkanize and destroy Russia now, can’t you? It’s a fucking goldmine and their control over natural resources leaves the west in an unbearable position —- all because NEOCON SCUM needed to have their filthy hands in the Ukraine.

What exactly do we get out of this fruitful relationship with the Ukraine, aside from Trump getting impeached and Hunter Biden getting $80,000 per month in bribe money?

HOW ABOUT THIS FUCKED FACES?

At this point the answer to one Russian victory after the next is $1b per week in funding without oversight to the Ukrainian government, in what appears to be bribes to keep them from fleeing. This policy is as inane as it is evil, purposely dragging out a war that is UNWINNABLE. No matter how many wonder weapons we send to Ukraine, the geography of the battlefield will always favor Russia. Logistics win wars, not wonder weapons.

The logical thing to do from day 1 and even before the war started is to come to terms with Russia. But that wasn’t what the neocon scum wanted —- instead favoring 100 year old blood feud and grandiose designs to turn Kiev into their new play toy. The whole ordeal wreaks of desperation and delusion, typical behavior of people who are mentally disabled.

I’d like to think the COVID-19 vaccines caused this cranial dysfunction malady and this is the reason why the idiots in charge keep doubling down on poor bets. But sadly, it’s a lot more perverse than most understand and the stakes cannot be higher. As the entire western world ebbs into a volcanic pit of boiling magma —- we are most astutely concerned with the well being and happiness of TRANSVESTITES — especially for children who are readying to make the plunge into self mutilation and drugs because nothing says AMERICAN APPLE PIE like Johnny cutting his dick off on his 16th birthday and having giant floppy tits surgically implanted onto his scrawny body all in the name of progress.

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HAPPY FIREWORKS AND HOT DOGS DAY

With all that is happening, it would be easy for me to shit on the 4th of July today — seeing just about all decisions made on behalf of the American people run counter to the best interests of the American people. But I’m not going to do that — especially since there’s so many of the Hot Dogs and hamburgers for you to eat today.

Why don’t you wash them down with a nice frosted beer, as you preside over the oversized stainless steel grill, preparing sausages for junior and grilled chicken breast for the wife and daughter?

Perhaps after you’ve eaten enough to feed 10 people — you can sit down and relax. After all, you’ve earned it. Might I suggest a brandy and cigar? It’s always the patriotic thing to do on the 4th of July.

When the day grows longer and the kids become restless, might I suggest you take out some fired crackers and light them up in front of the house? You can hand junior a lighter and your daughter a sparkler and have them partake in the festivities — watching the colors and smelling the gunned powder —- so much smoke but not enough to choke on — just the right amount.

After the show is over, might I suggest some iced cream or Italian ices and an episode or two of the Honeymooners before bed?

Happy 4th to the last generation of Americans who gives a shit.

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