Saturday, June 25, 2016
I win a lot. About
Joined Nov 10, 2007
13,271 Blog Posts

The Site Traffic Indicator is Flagging; A Market Turn Might Be Around the Bend


Remember when I posted about how traffic was weak and how the market always bottomed when traffic spiked?

Because I was preoccupied yesterday, unable to post 40 blogs during the most tumultuous day in years, I was only able to post once, during a non peak hour. In spite of that, traffic was higher by 50% over last week, because people know that I bring the fire.

I have two dozen stories worth posting. I have a litany of information to share with you, to help get through this period of chaos. But, for now, I’ll say this to you: violence is your friend. It cleanses the market from the moron. It removes the weak and leaves the strong intact. I’ve seen these squalls dozens of times throughout my career. Violence in price is always an actionable and preferable form of decline. The worst sort of drop is the slow drip, apathetic and demoralizing.

Exodus is saying some very historic things. I am going to cater to paying members first, but will try to give my 2 cents on the current events, best I can, with energy here.

My positions pressed higher by 5% yesterday. My 50% cash position will be allocated into the market at a time of Exodus‘ choosing.

If you’ve ever thought about joining, now is the time.

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Dip Buyers Punished in Deleterious Equity Breakdown


Pardon my absence today. I’ve been sailing on the seven seas in search of land. Early reports indicate the entirety of the world has been swamped by a once in a lifetime storm which poses a threat to the very existence of western civilization.

Some of you might chide the warnings provided by yours truly; but you will not chide any longer come Monday. You have no idea how deep this rabbit hole runs. This was never about BREXIT or even the EU. The storm that is here has everything to do with credit and how its been manipulated by a corrupt cadre of central banks who papered over largess losses in order to keep banks alive.

Deutsche Bank has a market cap of $24 billion with a balance sheet of $1.8 trillion. Such leverage has never existed in the history of mankind. Currency dislocations will cause liquidity pools to dry up, in turn, commodity prices will unravel and stocks will fall through the fucking floor.

I know these things, and more, because I zip through the multiverse in a god damned space capsule time machine, armed with Orbital Space Cannons (OSC).

All will not be lost overnight. There will be desperate struggles to survive. But eventually all will die, unless protected by the comforts of the ark, or hidden inside a well ventilated gold mine.

This drop has only just begun.

More this weekend.

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“The Fly” is about to set sail on his ark, victorious, a champion amongst champions–destroyer of nations. The giraffes have been annoying the shit out of me, running up and down the decks, trying to eat coconuts. In case some of you are trying to board, please don’t bother. There isn’t any room left, not even near the cobras. There isn’t any WIFI on the ark yet, so blogging might be scarce–even on this momentous day. It’s just a minor inconvenience, all things considered–so I might not be in touch with many of you until our IT department can find a remedy.

The FTSE MIB (Italy) is getting MIB’d today, off by 10.3%. Already, there are politicians in France and Italy calling for referendums to exit the EU. Did I mention Greece was down 17% and Spain off by 13%? Yeah, there’s that too.

Things have moderated a bit from last night’s extreme levels. The US 2yr had gone down to 0.50%, now at 0.59%. But there is an undeniable flight into ark-like vehicles. It’s also worth noting the massive divergence between German-PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) bonds. On one end, yields are plunging, with the German 10 yr down to -0.10%. On the other, yields are blowing out. The assumption is, now that the UK is opting out, others will follow. The PIGS need to be culled and they will, all in good time.

In spite of the fact that this UK exit from the EU will take 2 years to happen, it’s imperative that you understand this is a very fluid situation. Others might choose to leave too. The very fabric of the EU and the ECB is at stake, so expect volatility.

Now here in the states, we have a proclivity to buy anything, ordinary spendthrifts always in search of a bargain. I am certain there are thousands of you reading this, pondering about buying today’s dip. This is an undeniably lunatic idea, ahead of the weekend, which might prove to be politically toxic for EU member states. I expect to see effort on behalf of the bulls, wearisome behavior, and then collapse. In that order.

It’s worth noting, Exodus was timely in its recommendation to purchase inverse ETFs.

I am positioned sublimely, long TLT, GLD, AUY, AU and NEM, and 50% cash. Allocations will be made into the market upon seeing actionable oversold signals.

Okay, laddies, Le Fly has to set sail now. The storm is here and the winds are brisk. Happy swimming.

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Britain’s leading newspapers are now calling it for BREXIT. More importantly, it wasn’t even close.


Before I discuss the short term ramifications for stocks, just know this is great news for the UK, Europe and global trade. We both know the euro experiment is a wanton failure. The EU is moving towards becoming a fascist regime, deleterious to democracy in Europe. So, in the long term, for the sake of humanity, this is fantastic news. There is a refreshing breeze of nationalism and populism sweeping the UK and America. Let’s hope there are some strong leaders to lead the people through the transition.

What’s taking place tonight is historical. The pound is off by more than 9% to levels not seen since 1984. The NIKKEI is off by 8%. The DAX is indicating down 8% and Dow futures are down 600.

Both my gold and bond positions will undergo massive meltups tomorrow. I am 25% long TLT, 25% GLD and three miners, all outlined in Exodus, and 50% cash. I do believe markets will drop, precipitously, before we bounce. I will use the power of my algorithms to time the inflection points.

Look, crude is off by 6.5%. This unwind in crude is almost as important as BREXIT. The closer we get to 2017, the worse off for credit markets, due to an enormous amount of oil and gas debt coming due.

Make no mistake, this is a victory lap. I hope many of you, who’ve been watching and trading along with me since 2007, heeded my warnings and will be able to take advantage of this decline. We were positioned sublimely.


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This is unreal. British Pound-Dollar cross is now 1.347 and dropping, off by 9.4%. These are 1984 levels. With LEAVE up more than 600,000 votes or 3.2%, odds makers are saying there is a 90% chance that BREXIT will succeed.

One thing to watch, the yen is higher by 4.3% v the dollar.

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Global Markets Are Now Being Shattered; Please Proceed to Crash Position


Britain is going to leave the EU. As of now, all of the fear mongering and polls that suggested Britain would choose ‘remain’ were, inexorably, wrong.

What to expect tomorrow?

You shall feel the sharpest end of my blade, the one that I’ve been swinging in the wind since December the 31st, 2015.

FTSE futures are down nearly 9%. And, more importantly, US futures are lower by more than 500. The pound is off the most in 24 years, off by 7.5%.

The gamblers in England have switched sides, lads, now calling for an 87% chance of BREXIT. The two year bond’s yield is down 18% now. Gold is soaring. I think it’s fair to declare, without equivocation, “The Fly” wins again.

There is no way we bounce tomorrow with these dislocations present. There is an undeniable bias towards the bull camp, heading into this vote, which will make the unwind much worse than it should be. Financial markets are going to tighten and break.

I’ll be posting through the duration of the vote, so stay tuned.

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At the last count that I have available to me, the remain camp has are in a dead heat even. The British pound is getting obliterated, down 4.5% now.

DAX futures are off by 5.5%.

FTSE futures are down 6.3%.

Dow futures are down 322.

US 2yr yield is down 12% to 0.684%

Crude is off by 2.7%

Gold is higher by 1.2%

Get it?

Keep track of the BREXIT vote here.

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Global Currency Volatility Enduring Worst Night Since Financial Crisis


These crosses are fucking insane. I realize this is all theatre now. Nothing matters until the results are final. The leave vs remain vote tallies are just about 50-50 now, so it’s too early to count chickens. Nonetheless, the fluctuations are just bizaare.

The pound is off by 3.1% v the dollar.

Dollar is higher vs yuan by 0.25% and 1.1% vs the euro.

The yen is up 1.4% vs the dollar and Bitcoin is higher by 4.2%.

Gold is up more than 1% and crude is off by 2%.

Dow futures are down 243 and the FTSE is indicating -5.1%.

Oh, and bonds are soaring.

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British Futures are Getting Clown Raped; Better Than Expected BREXIT Vote Results Ripple Through the Markets


FTSE futures are down 4.5%. The DAX is off by 2.7%. Our futures are down a little less than 1%. Dow futures were down 350. This is a very fluid situation and things can change rapidly. Nevertheless, it goes to show you the risk that was being ignored during today’s tape.

Some risk off assets are rising: gold +0.6%, US 10yr bond is soaring, Bitcoins are higher by 4% etc.

The British pound is off by around 2.3%.

All of these numbers were a lot worse just a few minutes ago, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: The vote is just about 50-50 now.

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