iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,204 Blog Posts

IMPORTANT ALERT: The Treasury Has Coopted the Fed

News broke late this afternoon that the Fed would buy small business loans from banks. In other words, the treasury isn’t taking on debt for these bailouts, but instead making the Fed Brrrrrr with their printing presses and do the work for them. Also, late in the day, the mortgage services were pressing lawmakers to have the Fed fund them in order to service bond holders. See, people aren’t paying their mortgages, so instead of depending on the actual tenants to pay them — they want the Fed to give them the money. AND THEY WILL GET IT!

Why is this important? Because the treasury isn’t borrowing money to fund these facilities and instead using Fed funny money to do it — super inflationary. If this trend continues, the Fed will be the new defacto treasury, financing all of the governments projects with UNLIMITED printing press dollars. There has never been a more bullish case for gold.

The Dow lifted 1,640, Nasdaq more than 500. I closed out all of my shorts and went long with 95% of my account — caught upside in most of my intraday longs and will likely be selling them all very soon.

Stop complaining about how rigged everything is and blaming others for your fuckups. It is what it is — play the game and try to limit the losses while maximizing the gains. No one said this was an easy racket.

Surprisingly, this had zero effect on markets today.

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BOGGED THE FUCK OUT — HOT ROLLED AND STEELED

I lost the right to own these bastards. This is how I got HOOKED. I thought we were belting lower and here we are now, +1,200. I thought about this trade all day and even though I hated to realize hard losses, at a time when I am philosophically correct, it had to be done. Down 20% is terrible, but if I held and these dove lower, I’d be looking down the barrel of significant damage to my account.

The conclusion.

(DRIP -14.7%)
(TZA -14%)
(FAZ -20%)
(SOXS -22%)
(DRV -13.6%)

Entire damage to my account is 425bps. My ideas about DOUBLING DOWN were lunacy and never should’ve been entertained. I was HOOKED and had no choice but to sell.

My day wasn’t all horribles, I booked other trades, most at a profit.

AU +6.8%
INO +3.6%
SCL +8.9%
(IFRX -2.8%)

I also bought about half a dozen of so stocks — most of which have moved higher and had a healthy basket of OLD MAN stocks into today, which are mostly up led by the JELLY JAR $SJM.

There is no lesson to be learned here. This is trading. Sometimes you’re right, others times fucked. You just can’t let the fucked days run away and chase you out of the market.

In other news, Dave Portnoy is all in SHORT $BA — down $500k for the session.

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Market Explodes Higher on ‘Peak Infection’ Optimism

I got fucked with my 3x inverse ETFs over the weekend. I have a fuckload of them now, 5 of them representing 25% of my account — because I am HOOKED. I have two choices, now that markets have run higher. And believe me, I’m not one of those FUCKHEADS who complains when markets go the other way. It’s al relative. I got caught and now I’m getting HOT ROLLED AND STEELED. Nothing wrong with it and absolutely nothing to be ashamed over. The question is, do I hold, sell, or DOUBLE DOWN?

If I DOUBLE DOWN, it’d have to be in one or two, not all 5 — that would be fucking nuts. If I hold, I’ll be waiting while to achieve my basis and that’s not a given, seeing the market is optimistic about this virus ending.

Sure, there will be a fuckload of issues getting back to the way it used to be — but markets don’t care about that. All it cares about is Fed money printing and resumption of normalcy. The central banks don’t give a fuck. They have unlimited money hacks and will throw money at everything in order to get their tax revenues back online.

Markets are +1,000, WTI is -6%, and gold is +2.8%. I had AU and sold it for a 6.8% gain, other than that I’ve box watched trying to figure out what I want to do.

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Boris Johnson Hospitalized Over COVID-19; Futures Rise

I kind of regret not closing out my shorts on Friday. There appears to be a narrative shift taking place here. While it’s true, Britain’s PM Boris Johnson, once a flu bro, is now in the hospital due to 10 consecutive days of high fever, there is a trend in recent news events.

Infection rates, at least those being reported, in Spain, Italy, and NY have subsided a bit. Additionally, fuckers in Silicon Valley are preparing monstrous buyout funds.

On the other hand, oil is down 8% after the much advertised 10 million barrel per day cut by the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER seemingly fell flat on its fucking face because Putin hates their guts and wants shale producers to die. But I could see that railroad FUCKER talking shit again this week, so be on edge for that. The weather is improving and we’re entering week 3 of fuckery. Trump is antsy as fuck and wants to send people back to work. There is going to be an explosive rally at some point, which might decapitate plenty of shorts. It will last longer than people think and offer a false sense of hope and blanket of security. The truly bad news will come later, after companies report fucked numbers post crisis.

Nasdaq futs are +122 and anything can happen, literally anything. I am neither bullish nor bearish right now and feel that markets want higher, but should really go lower. My feelings, however, have nothing to do with it.

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Do You Feel in Charge?

Two housekeeping notes here. I used to blog a lot more news items than I do now — because I push many of the relevant news items via my Twitter account. I find it to be more efficient. You can access my Twitter account here — or use our newswire, which is free, that also compiles some great breaking news accounts for finance.

Browsing thru the news this morning and afternoon a few things stood out.

1. Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to argue about crude prices and the meeting for Monday has been canceled with a tentative raincheck date scheduled for April 9th.

2. Credit markets continue to deteriorate, but credit agencies are not downgrading CDO and CLO tranches.

3. A fuckload of maturities are due in 2020. For $MET along, 16% of their debt needs to be rolled over.

4. Platts Analytics believe supply won’t be turned off to the degree necessary unless Brent goes to $10.

5. Lines of credit are being drawn down at a record pace, with $15b+ being drawn in recent weeks. Total revolvers amount of $200b, half of which are in the consumer discretionary sector.

6. There are massive shortages of medicine and medical equipment due to COVID-19.

7. The death rate isn’t decreasing and the ‘flattening of the curve’ isn’t here yet.

8. Goldman says the nation’s largest department stores have 1 month of cash left

And this you have to see for yourself.

Honestly, I don’t know what the hell is going on — but I do know none of this is good for business and share price valuations. At a minimum, even after we cure COVID-19 and business gets back to normal, there will be a reduction is business activity due to PTSD and margins will be strained, as businesses attempt to restart their engines.

The S&P is down 23% for the year. Is that enough? The tech heavy Nasdaq is only down 14% for the year — because business as usual in tech-land. No one thinks Apple can be stopped.

What is this fucking chart telling me? Did we break the downtrend or is this rally a suckers respite that will fail and revisit the lows? You know the “WE MUST RETEST THE LOWS” fags are going to be out in force come Monday — should markets drop again.

Markets will most likely soar once we start to see normalcy return and people will think everything is good, up until numbers showing permanent damage are disseminated. It’s going to be a very volatile market for at least another 6 months.

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Bulls Pull Off Another Win — Dow Sinks 350 On Catastrophic Jobs Report

This is the type of tape built to burn everyone. Bulls are long because the Fed, resumption of growth post virus, and because they’re fucking morons. Bears will end up getting ensnared and bankrupted because they’ll overstay their welcome and lose the trade. There are 1,000 reasons to be bearish here — only 1 reason to be long.

REMINDER: The Fed lost 2008-2009, because stocks dropped dead -75% before recovering. It took years to recover and many never had the chance because they got wiped clean.

I will word my next thoughts carefully and without hyperbole.

There is significant credit issues persisting now and central banks are throwing everything they have at it. On the surface, this is incredibly bullish for asset prices — but the X factor is COVID-19. How long will it last? No one believes stats out of China — just 82k infected whilst America is running hot towards 300k. Please.

I don’t need to remind you but everything is closed. Everything is shut in. The psychological affects of this event will persist for years, or until there is a vaccine.

I am bullish on consumer staples and long stocks like K, CPB, GIS, CLX, and HAIN — all higher today — because your supermarket is the only place for discretionary spending now. As unemployment checks roll in and government stimulus and bailouts, spending at your local grocer will only exacerbate. Stocks like KMB and CLX command higher multiples now because growth is about to hockey stick.

Aside from that, I am short banks, commercial Re, semis, and small caps. Fuck the market.

Today’s closed out trades.

(FRO -27%)
JNUG +1.5%
NVAX +5.5% (day trade)
W +2.9% (day trade)
BAND +1.35% (day trade)

NOTE: WTI ran up 13% today, after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER MADE AN INCREDULOUS APPEARANCE ON CNBC, talking shit.

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LOSSES MOUNT MID-SESSION, NOT EVEN THE TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER CAN HELP US

It goes without saying, you DESERVE a claw-hammer to the fucking brain for buying the market on a -701k jobs print. Listen to me closely, more than you’ve ever listened before.

WE ARE GOING TO PUNCH THRU THE LOWS, and much much more. Life as you know it already changed, you just don’t know it because you’re living thru it and in a fantasy world filled with whimsical Fed-Bucks.

Markets are lower by 200 now, not much of anything to be honest. But I am looking at other things, more specific with debt and how the CMBS market is shredded to bits and pieces. I realize the Fed will end up owning it all, including junk and stocks. But for the sake of doing what is right and just, I am NET SHORT here and positioned headlong into an array of old man stocks — consumer staples — based off the idea the plague will never end and this is the end game, the egregious ending of mankind at the hands of Bat-Soup.

In the event that doesn’t pan out, I’m nimble and will quickly reverse course. But for now, I see nothing but dark shadows and traders getting HOT ROLLED AND STEELED under the weight of their mindless hubris.

The Texas Railroad Commissioner could not be reached for comment.

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BOOLISH: March Jobs Report Posts -701k; New Estimates Predict 10-15 Million Job Losses

We have the fucking Texas Railroad Commissioner on the line right now with Saudi Arabia cutting deals. What the fuck do we need jobs for? Everyone is obsessed with the employment outlook for the country. Meanwhile, on Twitter, the fucking Railroad Commissioner for the state of Texas is telling a different story, a tale of MASSIVE supply cuts of 10 million barrels per day. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Yeah, I know what the haters will say.

“Fly what the fuck does it matter, not a single plane in the sky — NO ONE is using oil.”

Whatever. After the virus passes and the economy is RIPPING higher again, oil is gonna go up so much your eyes will bleed. I’m talking $5,000 per barrel. How about that — fucked face? A flight to Paris will cost 1 million dollars — as planes cater to the super high end wealthy only. The bums will have to stay home and sustain of their government dole of $1,200 per mo.

“My sense is that when we get April data a month from now, we’ll see that the economy lost somewhere between 10 and 15 million jobs,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Anlaytics, said earlier this week. “That would be consistent with the initial claims for unemployment insurance data that we’re getting.”

Dow futs are -90, but WTI is higher by 11%, Brent by 16% — thanks to the commissioner. The Eurostoxx 50 is down 0.4%; but they’re all pussies. America will show the world, once again, how to do this shit. We don’t need jobs to see stocks higher. We have UNLIMITED MONEY hacks at the Fed, men on the phone in Texas, and a bunch of unemployed losers now surfing for porn on the internet, as God intended.

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MARKET RAMPS FURIOUSLY AFTER TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER TWEETS ABOUT OIL SUPPLY CUTS

What a fucking day.

Trump pumped oil markets with a tweet, which was later denied by the Saudis. Then markets faded like a motherfucker, losing a 350 point rally, only to rally up again after the TEXAS RAILROAD COMMISSIONER offered this fucking tweet.

On that news, markets lifted off and oil ran up 10% from the afternoon lull. You have to be fucking kidding me. I’ve seen it all.

Today’s results.

AMPE +9%
APRN +10.6%
SOXS +8.7%
FAZ +4.6%
LAKE +2%
(NBY -13.8%)
(BIMI -4.7%)
(AHPI -7.4%)
DYNT – wash
MEDS – wash
PUMP +16%
NUGT +12.5%
CLR +1.5%
(PTON -7.9%)
(APA -7.8%)
(NOV -6%)

Into the bell, I went short real estate, oil, and small caps. I am long gold and consumer staples, positioning for a Friday collapse. Anything can happen and the news is now important to juice markets. I sense the oil markets are now the most important for the market, so look for real chicanery to come out of OPEC and Trump the next few days.

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MARKETS COLLAPSE AFTER TRUMP’S OIL PUMP DEFLATED BY SAUDS

Trump said this.

And then the Saudis said this.

And the markets did this.

Trump lied, traders died.

I responded by buying the oil pump, but quickly sold it. This is what I’ve closed out thus far.

AMPE +9%
APRN +10.6%
SOXS +8.7%
FAZ +4.6%
LAKE +2%
(NBY -13.8%)
(BIMI -4.7%)
(AHPI -7.4%)
DYNT – wash
MEDS – wash
PUMP +16%
NUGT +12.5%
CLR +1.5%
(PTON -7.9%)
(APA -7.8%)
(NOV -6%)

I am now leaning towards positioning SHORT, especially REITs and I like oil SHORT here — because OPEC sucks and Trump is a fucking pumper.

UPDATE:

What the fuck?

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