18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,348 Blog Posts

Happy Birthday From House Fly (Cleaning Hard and Good and Doing a Good Job Edition)

I woke up late today because I partied hard last night — being that today is my 43rd birthday and all. I scrubbed the floors good and hard, re-grouted them to look anew, and removed and replaced several drop down ceiling tiles in the basement. I was afforded the opportune to drink two beers while working, and I managed to cook some dinner on the grill. All was very acceptable.

Today there will be no time for slackers, nor persons of low productivity. First thing to do is to take heavy doses of allergy medicines and Dayquil — this way my body runs efficiently and cannot be interrupted by inconvenient bouts of sneezing. For every time that I sneeze, I could’ve accomplished one mop stroke across my floors.

After I am done with this blog and bowl of cereal, I will immediately wash the walls upstairs. I will wash them good and hard, dry them, and then wash them again — removing any semblance of browning that might exist. Then I will quickly wash the bathroom floors, the one’s that I re-grouted last night, making sure that there isn’t sand or hard pieces of grout left on the floor.

THIS JUST IN: The dogs smell horrible and need to be washed.

In case you’re wondering as to why I am doing these things, let alone on my birthday, it’s because I fired my cleaning crew and also because I’m selling my house.

There isn’t any time for slackers or persons of low productivity.


Off to scrub.

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One day ahead of my illustrious birthday, I partook in wanton shopping in and about the area of Princeton today — rummaging throughout the racks of textiles and plastic wares in search of aesthetically pleasing items that might coerce some family to purchase our fine home from us. In between of all the fun consumerism, I sneezed my brains out and itched my head and face until it bled.

As soon as I got home, I took to the yard to breathe in nature and sneeze some more. Then I trimmed the boxwoods and seeded the dry spots of lawn with fast growing grass. In about 20 minutes I will shuffle up to the master bathroom to re-grout the tiles — because excellence breeds excellence and a good house, a really fine house, always needs an effective scullery maid. After I re-grout the tiles and clean the floor thoroughly, I might entreat myself to a bit of BBQ chicken and perhaps a small piece of potato. I’m not supposed to partake in these excursions, since they reduce my efficiency and I’m certainly not useful when not efficient.

Later on this evening, as my birthday nears, I might take a look at a bottle of gin for a few seconds — perhaps even sneak a sniff and wonder what a gimlet tastes like. There is no time for drinking, or anything that could possibly reduce productivity. I will create new cardboard boxes and find things to throw inside of them — then stack them neatly in the garage — which is more or less a giant closet now.

Oh, almost forgot — I will wash the walls with a nice concoction of Comet bleach powder and water. For the master bedroom, ‘where the magic happens’, I will need the assistance of a very tall ladder — since the vaulted ceilings are quite high and also stupid. See, the vaulted shape creates opportunity for dust to accumulate up top and it browns the paint and makes us look homeless. Tonight I will balance myself atop the ladder, like a monkey on a needle, and wash the walls — wash them good and hard until they’re clean. We should be able to eat off the top of my vaulted ceilings, if needed. While I’m up there, I’ll clean the fan — because it too has been browned. I hope someone can turn the fan off while I’m up there — otherwise I might get caught up in the blades.

Around supper time tomorrow, for my birthday celebration, I fully expect to properly stage the house for viewing. There’s also the issue of the basement where we’ll need to replace some of the soundproof drop down ceilings, since several of them have water stains. This too make us look homeless. By next week, however, I fully expect the house to be very clean, from the most remote corner in the basement all the way to the vaulted ceilings in the master bedroom.

After we finally sell this house and move down to NC, I might interest myself in a single beer for 10-15 minutes, before getting back to work, feverishly, on unpacking and redecoration, and renovating, the new House Fly.

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About the Markets and Fridays

Good morning lads. Don’t drink that coffee too fast, otherwise you might burn your lips off.

Trump is out talking shit again about trading deals without proof. Futures are higher, but very soon will be lower.

“It’s happening, it’s happening fast and I think things probably are going to happen with China fast because I cannot imagine that they can be thrilled with thousands of companies leaving their shores for other places,” Trump said during remarks at the White House, providing no evidence of such an Exodus.

When markets break down and have a hard time gaining upwards steam, they fail often and rarely, if ever, will they ascend on Fridays. Hence the phrase applies here “markets do not bottom on Fridays.” You might not believe it now — but you will by this afternoon.

The big story today isn’t about stocks — but cryptos (dot dot dot) surging higher. My ELF coin is up 21% and I couldn’t be more pleased. Truth is, total market cap for all ICOs is only $250m, still down $500m from the highs. I think once BTC breaks $10,000, we will begin to see the light at the end of this very dark tunnel — which is “new all time highs” ahead.

I’m here afflicted by allergies, allergic to the earth and the air, barreling into my birthday — which is tomorrow. I’ll be turning 43, but I look and feel 100. Something about turning 40 sucks the life out of you — and it has only gotten worse in recent years. Part of the reason why I decided to move from here is to change things up a bit — perhaps find a place to live that brings me comfort and peace. We’ll see about that. For now, prepping to sell the house has been hell on earth.

Cheers to better times and always remember — markets do not bottom on Fridays.

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You might be tempted to get long oil here — but you’d be a fool to do so. WTI has topped and with it the entire market. Trump’s trade war is getting worse and nothing can save stocks now.

Observe the frown.

Boy is that grizzly.

I just sold out of ROKU for a quick 2.5% gain — because I am both scared and greedy — greedy to maximize my gains in 3x short instruments. Into the bell, I will INCREASE my short exposure.

Save yourselves and join the league of gentlemen inside Exodus and navigate the storms to come with poise.

Good day.

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TLT is hitting fresh 52 week highs today, while oil stocks are down more than 4%.

The drubbing in oil is starting to have an effect on HYG — which is lower by 0.57%.

The 10yr is down a staggering 8bps to 2.31%, fresh lows. This of course is good news for dividend payers like ED, TR, and DLR — which is why I bought them yesterday. Valuation expansion is the buzzword for value stocks — an area of the market that should be protected with rates going down.

The news out of China is getting antagonistic.

“If the U.S. would like to keep on negotiating it should, with sincerity, adjust its wrong actions. Only then can talks continue,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.

We have a rich environment for summer doldrums.

I’m excessively rich today thanks to my DRIP, TVIX, and FAZ positions. Even my ROKU is higher, which is arguably the best growth name out there now. Even my doubled sized LK, Chinese coffee piece of shit, is higher. My birthday is on the 25th of May and I couldn’t ask for a better present — me sacking you and crushing your bones into dust.

The big story of the day is oil — getting beaten the fuck out. Everyone is gonna want a piece of my DRIP today.

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Don’t Panic Until You See These Things Happening

UPDATE: The latest U.S. actions on trade are preventing negotiations with Beijing from proceeding, China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday.

“If the U.S. would like to keep on negotiating it should, with sincerity, adjust its wrong actions. Only then can talks continue,” Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said Thursday in Mandarin, according to a CNBC translation.

I’m not falling for this shit again. Every time the market looks like it wants to tap out — the stock Gods enliven this cadaver and reanimates it. I want the market to really burn down, hard, and without pause. I’d like to see it crash 10,000 points for my birthday — but we can’t always get what we want, can we? As a point in fact, we very rarely get what we want. We settle for what’s available and carry on and toil. After we’re done toiling, we pay for our burials and dissipate into the earth.

I have meetings this morning, so I’ll be brief.

Don’t panic, unless you see HYG and JNK following the marker lower. You will first see this happening in the oil market, which are very weak. After that, you’ll see oil stocks crater, 4-5%, then it’ll hit the bonds market.

After that blows out, look for leveraged loans to fuck themselves — SRLN.

The one thing you can monitor closely is TLT and if that fucker keeps going up — you’ll know something is wrong. A bad feeling is often followed up by bad stock action and higher gold. So watch gold too.

Like I said, I’m not falling for this shit again. Nasdaq futures are down 90, but will probably jimmy higher immediately after opening for trade. Trump is a bastard bull market dick-sucker and I hope Mnuchin or Kudlow gets bored of jerking off markets for you so we can have a proper collapse, one for the ages — so that I can put cash to work and buy all of your margin liquidations.

It’s just more fun this way.

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Towards the end of trade I bought some TR, ED, and DLR. I did so because I expect old man stocks to do well in a low rate environ. Listen to me now — the market is on the precipice of complete annihilation. President Orange is soon to chimp out so hard, President Xi is bound to open his own Twitter account and tell him to fuck off.

I am aptly prepared, cash, inverse ETFs, old man stocks — the works!

The only thing I’m lamenting now is this fucking Chinese coffee shoppe nonsense — LK — knifing lower as if the entire country stopped consuming coffee. I averaged down today and the stock plunged for a second time after I bought it. This is getting ridiculous. I should’ve stopped out — but instead I knuckled down and ate more.

Nothing can save you — not even the black flag. After you’re good and dead, your bones will be crushed and flesh decomposed and turned into fertilizer for my crops.

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Fed Minutes Reveal: No Rate Hikes Now, Not Ever!

The 10yr is -3bps today, after it was revealed the Fed has zero interest in hiking rates — even if the economy gains steam.

This is particularly good news for old man stocks — companies who rely upon cheap sources of capital to make acquisitions, do share buybacks, and other forms of chicanery.

Markets are barely down. For now, I’m sitting on lots of cash, waiting for the voices in my head to tell me where to go.

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Update on My Trading Positions

Oil has collapsed and is heading by way of the dodo-bird. I am the DRIP God.

I bought TLRY this morning.

My CRON is working fine — bought it yesterday.

DTEA — sitting and waiting for some cannabis news.

SILK — new highs, dead volume.

ROKU — just bought yesterday, looking for hundy roll.

FAZ-mobile — goes fast when it gets going. It’s gonna get going soon.

GROW — I forgot why I’m long.

TVIX — panic hedge.

SWCH — new purchase from yesterday.

LK — just averaged down. New basis in high $18s.

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Citi Cuts Price Target For $TSLA — Says Stock Can Hit $36 in ‘Bear Case’ Scenario

Yesterday it was Morgan Stanley, today it’s Citi. Please explain to me why these analysts feel it necessary to shill for headlines with nonsensical bear case scenario extreme price targets? Let me be clear, Citi still has a price target of $191 on TSLA, but thinks the stock can hit $36 if everything goes wrong.

I think Citi has a greater chance of going to zero than TSLA to $36. After all, should we get another credit crisis and Citi is forced to mark down assets to extremely low levels, they probably won’t have enough capital to remain solvent.

Here are the notes.

Source: CNBC

Morgan Stanley caused a stir on Tuesday when star auto analyst Adam Jonas put out a “bear case” scenario that envisioned Tesla’s shares plummeting to just $10.

And now a Citigroup Global Markets analyst is out with another shocking scenario for Elon Musk’s electric car maker.

Citi’s Itay Michaeli sees increasing probability the shares plummet more than 80% to $36.

“Maintain sell/high risk as the risk/reward still appears negatively skewed despite the recent capital raise and stock pullback, mainly on lingering demand/FCF (free cash flow) concerns,” the analyst said in a note late Tuesday.

“Reducing estimates to reflect the recent capital raise, Q1 results/guide and our own inputs.”

The analyst cut his regular price target on Tesla to $191 from $238 by adjusting the probabilities of three scenarios, seeing a decreasing chance of a big rally in the stock and an increasing chance of a share collapse. He sees a 40% chance (up from 35%) of a “full bear” scenario of $36, a 55% chance of a “moderate bull” scenario of $253 and a 5% chance (down from 10%) of a “full bull case” of $760.

“So the recent reported internal memo, which seemingly called into question prior guidance, didn’t help the risk/reward calculus. The implications can be serious, since an automaker’s balance sheet is always subject to the confidence ‘spiral’ risk,” Michaeli said.

Don’t worry TSLA longs — there is still a 5% chance the stock can hit $760.

TSLA is -3% in pre-market.

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