A Fine Week

I’d love to write a longer blog, but I am seething with pent up anger due to non-business concerns. Let me add that the comments section is beginning to take on the characteristics of an 8th grade classroom.

The problem with being a person who consumes information on an industrial scale is the more you know and evolve as a person, the dumber everyone else is around you. This can lead to irrevocable differences, a split that cannot be rectified. I strongly advise you, the American beer swilling catamite, to read some books, other than the horseshit sports section in your local newspapers. You’ve become, all of you have become, first rate wagnerians of a very homosexual nature.

I’m off now, gone to handle my fucking chores.

By the way, thanks to the Ebola outbreak, there is still room left for some of you ingrates at our Vegas conference. I am 1,000% sure I am never, ever, doing this again.

I GRANT YOU TWENTY NASDAQS

Have a nasdaqary and enjoy the show.

We were supposed to trade lower today, as the poor Amazon missed their earnings estimates.

What to do with the poor Amazon?

Software stocks are clearly insane, led by N–which I happen to be long. There is a fervor grabbing hold of Wall street and I am hoping it will soon grip onto the shares of ANET, another one of my larger positions.

Gentlemen, I give you TWENTY NASDAQS on this friday afternoon, not as something to get giddy over–like little cleaning ladies laughing in the bathroom as they toil away at the grout– but as a token of appreciation for your attendance.

Enough with the laughing, now get back to work.

About that $FMSA Trade and More

Before time moves on and I forget to post about the FMSA trade, let me explain how I knew it’d work.

FMSA is a frac sand company. This is an industry that was pistol hot a month ago, with SLCA, EMES and HCLP all hitting new highs. By the time they were ready to IPO, the expected range had been lowered to $16-17 due to market conditions. When they came public, the frac sand space was getting annihilated. It was the worst possible time for them to IPO, especially since they had no institutional backing or a solidified retail shareholder base. The result was a rout in the shares, far exceeding the declines in other sand plays.

When I bought into the stock, the sector had the appearance of bottoming out. FMSA’s losses, however, were twice that of SLCA’s. I knew that if the sector rebounded, it would move twice as fast, if not more. I was right, made 30%+ and now I am moving on, which is probably a mistake since the stock will likely trade above its IPO price of $17 in the not so distant future.

Let me tell you something about Wall St, buying and selling stocks. Anyone can do it. My best days trading occurred when I was brand spanking new in the business, early 20′s, without a care in the world. I’ve mentioned my first big trade here many times, which was $6k into AOL turning into $250k in a little less than 3 years time. I had little understanding of the market, only extending to my encyclopedia like memory of stocks, profiles and sectors. The older, more experienced, you become, the less risk you take. Age, inherently, is the ultimate arbitrar between fear and greed. When you are young and have never failed, your inhibitions are without boundaries, invincible, God amongst mortals. After you get dinged a few times, you don’t want to get dinged anymore. As such, you become careful in the manner by which you conduct yourself.

Ignorance truly is bliss.

Trust me when I tell you, the ignorant trader has a short lifespan, albeit an exciting one. The momo chasing gets old quick and before you know it, you’re starting over again.

 

It’s Important that You Retain This Information

The market is indicating down THIRTY NASDAQS right now because the plague has entered NYC by way of trojan horse masquerading as a liberal do-gooder, motherfucker,  Doctor, who took it upon himself to play with bowling balls and travel by way of uber, instead of QUARANTINING himself after treating the witch doctors of west Africa who contracted ebola.

Having said that, I want to point out to you good folks that the market has been constructive these past 5 trading days, resiliently rebounding and putting up a good fight. It’s important that you know which stocks have performed best this past week; because when the market dips again, you’re gonna want to go back to the well for another go.

Criteria: 1 week returns of greater than 10%, market caps more than $1 billion aka ‘real companies.’

Chinese burritos:

VIPS

BITA

Solar:

VSLR

SUNE

Semis:

OSIS

KLAC

SLAB

XLNX

QLGC

ISIL

Homebuilders:

KBH

PHM

DHI

Airlines:

SAVE

ALK

UAL

AAL

DAL

Paper products:

SWM

UFS

KS

FBR

Oil and Gas Equip:

FTK

HLX

RIGP

Internet Information:

TRIP

YHOO

FB

Home Furnishings:

SCSS

TPX

LEG

Foreign Regional Banks:

BFR

BMA

IRE

Drugs-Major:

CBST

PCYC

ILMN

ALXN

REGN

CELG

ABBV

AMGN

GILD

Biotech:

NLNK

LGND

BLUE

ANAC

LCI

XON

AGIO

Auto Parts:

DAN

GNTX

ORLY

Auto Dealerships:

GPI

KMX

Botton line: expand your universe of stocks. In order to cast a wider net, it’s important to dedicate yourselves as students of the market. The lessons never end and there aren’t any teachers and pupils in this game, just people in varying degrees of experience and expertise in the never-ending rat race of financial supremacy.

MAY YOU BURN IN THE FIRES OF 1,000 SUNS

My TNA position from several weeks ago is basking in the glory of the Lord, as your heathenish VIX instrument products wallow in misery. You lose money, not because of poor circumstances or lack of luck, but because of an unsound mind–brought on by demons.

Brothers and Sisters of iBankCoin, I give you SEVENTY NASDAQS as bounty for your hard work, toiling amidst the arid lands of Wall. What you do with your bounty is entirely up to you.

With my money, I am purveyor of the road, the instrument of our heavenly father that unites this great country from coast to coast. I am long an abundant amount of the shares of TRN, maker of railcars–destroyer of the short seller.

Mind you and listen to me very carefully and quietly as if your lives depended on it: YOU WILL BURN IN THE FIRES OF 1,000 SUNS, betting against the road. Your coin, sooner rather than later, will become mines and your souls will be banished to the dungeons of perdition.

Good people of iBankCoin, tomorrow I will give you even more NASDAQS. We will sing songs with sweet melodies and dance about the fiery pits by which our enemies roast.

I AM AN OIL MAN OF MAGNANIMOUS PROPORTIONS

My enemies are upset, following my gallant 31% gain in FMSA. They’ve mistaken my locking in of profits as something to be scowled upon, instead of rejoiced. I’ve taken said money and applied it where I though it’d be best served.

At first, I strongly considered buying JCP. It’s a long story–but I think the stock has bottomed.

I then explored some tech plays, but the reminder of YELP soured that idea quickly.

Then I looked at crude, then the House of Saud, the crude again, and realized there was only one place to put the proceeds.

I love FANG. I like BBG. But I am CLR. We are one and the same.

If, by chance, you happened to come upon my person and called out “YO, CLR”, I’d turn around as if you had called my name. If I get the chance to create another son, I will name him Charles Lawrence Robert, or better yet ROBERTO, after my favorite robot from Futurama.

Before today’s purchase of CLR, I was down 13% in the position. Following this double down, I will be down much less than that. However, the stakes are twice as large. I have some ground to make up, so it’s either go big or go home.

GLOBAL GROWTH IS BACK

Two major items to discuss this morning.

1. Saudi Arabia announced they’d cut production by 328,000 barrels in September to a total of 9.36 million barrels.

2. Caterpillar smashed analysts expectations.

Out of all the Dow 30 companies, an index that the venerable DAN NATHAN from Fast Money hates and despises, no company embodies the global growth narrative better than CAT. This earnings beat, this great chant, is an affirmation of the spectacular condition of global trade. Much to the amusement of myself and many others, The House of Saud has cut production, something the wild eyed conspiracy theorists said wouldn’t happen.

So let’s connect the dots, shall we?

Apple, producer of high quality premium products, annihilated estimates, solidifying the notion that money is still out there to be had, for quality products. Caterpillar crushed the skulls of those betting against the China story. Employment data is robust and US GDP is tracking 3% per annum.

But let’s talk about another important factor, something that isn’t being readily discussed.

Cheap oil.

What does it mean?

Well, if you compare today’s prices to those on July 4th, the US consumer is saving $160 million PER DAY. If prices stay at these levels for the next 12 months, it is estimated that US consumers will save an astounding $100 billion.

Now you and I both know people aren’t going to save those dollars. We can very well be setting up for the best holiday shopping season in a decade. Considering the fact that many retail stocks are in the gutter, it might be time to revisit some old names and position for grande eloquence this X-mas season.

 

And Here is Opportunity

I promise you, whenever Morgan Stanley decides to bring The Shake Shack public, I will put 20% of my net worth in it. I will buy the stock every month, after I earn my wage, and dollar cost average into the burger chain until they have 350 stores in the Unites Steaks. At the present, they own a little more than 50.

In the after hours, YELP is down a hard 10 after giving tepid guidance. This is a situation that should be monitored and action should be purposeful, for YELP, ultimately, trades much higher.

But let’s discuss the matter of valuation, shall we?

The stock is trading 17x sales, a tremendous burden for any CEO. Given the growth rate, YELP will trade 11-13x sales next year, providing the stock remains at these levels. There is a strong case to be made for 15x sales, but not 20x. I own a small position and will use any sizable decline to add to it.

The market closed at the lows and a terrorist event took place in Canada today. I’d be shocked if we didn’t trade lower tomorrow.

I sold out of my CYBR and set the proceeds to cash.

My best guess, looking at historical routs and subsequent bounces, we trade lower until Thursday of next week, then bounce the hardest.

 

Here is the Test

The newly minted geniuses are now being tested. Trust in your abilities to navigate these waters and account for another leg lower.

With crude at new lows, it’s very likely that we will begin to descend back down to the lows of last week. The very idea of $70 crude frightens people. It’s funny what a decade of super expensive crude can do to the minds of normal people. We now crave higher gasoline prices, in order to rubber stamp global growth and everything being ‘okay.’

Should the market rally off the lows and momo stocks catch a bid, you should sell them. Everything runs on crude, even America.

As for me, I’ve already thought this through and understand the risks associated with holding stocks in the midst of a maelstrom. The prospective losses are acceptable, providing I am permitted to make them back. I am pleased with most of my holdings and will tweak them whenever necessary.

But it’s important to not act rashly and understand that VIX instrument products are nothing more than a gateway drug to a lifetime’s worth of agony and dishevelment.

Keep your eye on the close for confirmation.

A Fine Week

I’d love to write a longer blog, but I am seething with pent up anger due to non-business concerns. Let me add that the comments section is beginning to take on the characteristics of an 8th grade classroom.

The problem with being a person who consumes information on an industrial scale is the more you know and evolve as a person, the dumber everyone else is around you. This can lead to irrevocable differences, a split that cannot be rectified. I strongly advise you, the American beer swilling catamite, to read some books, other than the horseshit sports section in your local newspapers. You’ve become, all of you have become, first rate wagnerians of a very homosexual nature.

I’m off now, gone to handle my fucking chores.

By the way, thanks to the Ebola outbreak, there is still room left for some of you ingrates at our Vegas conference. I am 1,000% sure I am never, ever, doing this again.

I GRANT YOU TWENTY NASDAQS

Have a nasdaqary and enjoy the show.

We were supposed to trade lower today, as the poor Amazon missed their earnings estimates.

What to do with the poor Amazon?

Software stocks are clearly insane, led by N–which I happen to be long. There is a fervor grabbing hold of Wall street and I am hoping it will soon grip onto the shares of ANET, another one of my larger positions.

Gentlemen, I give you TWENTY NASDAQS on this friday afternoon, not as something to get giddy over–like little cleaning ladies laughing in the bathroom as they toil away at the grout– but as a token of appreciation for your attendance.

Enough with the laughing, now get back to work.

About that $FMSA Trade and More

Before time moves on and I forget to post about the FMSA trade, let me explain how I knew it’d work.

FMSA is a frac sand company. This is an industry that was pistol hot a month ago, with SLCA, EMES and HCLP all hitting new highs. By the time they were ready to IPO, the expected range had been lowered to $16-17 due to market conditions. When they came public, the frac sand space was getting annihilated. It was the worst possible time for them to IPO, especially since they had no institutional backing or a solidified retail shareholder base. The result was a rout in the shares, far exceeding the declines in other sand plays.

When I bought into the stock, the sector had the appearance of bottoming out. FMSA’s losses, however, were twice that of SLCA’s. I knew that if the sector rebounded, it would move twice as fast, if not more. I was right, made 30%+ and now I am moving on, which is probably a mistake since the stock will likely trade above its IPO price of $17 in the not so distant future.

Let me tell you something about Wall St, buying and selling stocks. Anyone can do it. My best days trading occurred when I was brand spanking new in the business, early 20′s, without a care in the world. I’ve mentioned my first big trade here many times, which was $6k into AOL turning into $250k in a little less than 3 years time. I had little understanding of the market, only extending to my encyclopedia like memory of stocks, profiles and sectors. The older, more experienced, you become, the less risk you take. Age, inherently, is the ultimate arbitrar between fear and greed. When you are young and have never failed, your inhibitions are without boundaries, invincible, God amongst mortals. After you get dinged a few times, you don’t want to get dinged anymore. As such, you become careful in the manner by which you conduct yourself.

Ignorance truly is bliss.

Trust me when I tell you, the ignorant trader has a short lifespan, albeit an exciting one. The momo chasing gets old quick and before you know it, you’re starting over again.

 

It’s Important that You Retain This Information

The market is indicating down THIRTY NASDAQS right now because the plague has entered NYC by way of trojan horse masquerading as a liberal do-gooder, motherfucker,  Doctor, who took it upon himself to play with bowling balls and travel by way of uber, instead of QUARANTINING himself after treating the witch doctors of west Africa who contracted ebola.

Having said that, I want to point out to you good folks that the market has been constructive these past 5 trading days, resiliently rebounding and putting up a good fight. It’s important that you know which stocks have performed best this past week; because when the market dips again, you’re gonna want to go back to the well for another go.

Criteria: 1 week returns of greater than 10%, market caps more than $1 billion aka ‘real companies.’

Chinese burritos:

VIPS

BITA

Solar:

VSLR

SUNE

Semis:

OSIS

KLAC

SLAB

XLNX

QLGC

ISIL

Homebuilders:

KBH

PHM

DHI

Airlines:

SAVE

ALK

UAL

AAL

DAL

Paper products:

SWM

UFS

KS

FBR

Oil and Gas Equip:

FTK

HLX

RIGP

Internet Information:

TRIP

YHOO

FB

Home Furnishings:

SCSS

TPX

LEG

Foreign Regional Banks:

BFR

BMA

IRE

Drugs-Major:

CBST

PCYC

ILMN

ALXN

REGN

CELG

ABBV

AMGN

GILD

Biotech:

NLNK

LGND

BLUE

ANAC

LCI

XON

AGIO

Auto Parts:

DAN

GNTX

ORLY

Auto Dealerships:

GPI

KMX

Botton line: expand your universe of stocks. In order to cast a wider net, it’s important to dedicate yourselves as students of the market. The lessons never end and there aren’t any teachers and pupils in this game, just people in varying degrees of experience and expertise in the never-ending rat race of financial supremacy.

MAY YOU BURN IN THE FIRES OF 1,000 SUNS

My TNA position from several weeks ago is basking in the glory of the Lord, as your heathenish VIX instrument products wallow in misery. You lose money, not because of poor circumstances or lack of luck, but because of an unsound mind–brought on by demons.

Brothers and Sisters of iBankCoin, I give you SEVENTY NASDAQS as bounty for your hard work, toiling amidst the arid lands of Wall. What you do with your bounty is entirely up to you.

With my money, I am purveyor of the road, the instrument of our heavenly father that unites this great country from coast to coast. I am long an abundant amount of the shares of TRN, maker of railcars–destroyer of the short seller.

Mind you and listen to me very carefully and quietly as if your lives depended on it: YOU WILL BURN IN THE FIRES OF 1,000 SUNS, betting against the road. Your coin, sooner rather than later, will become mines and your souls will be banished to the dungeons of perdition.

Good people of iBankCoin, tomorrow I will give you even more NASDAQS. We will sing songs with sweet melodies and dance about the fiery pits by which our enemies roast.

I AM AN OIL MAN OF MAGNANIMOUS PROPORTIONS

My enemies are upset, following my gallant 31% gain in FMSA. They’ve mistaken my locking in of profits as something to be scowled upon, instead of rejoiced. I’ve taken said money and applied it where I though it’d be best served.

At first, I strongly considered buying JCP. It’s a long story–but I think the stock has bottomed.

I then explored some tech plays, but the reminder of YELP soured that idea quickly.

Then I looked at crude, then the House of Saud, the crude again, and realized there was only one place to put the proceeds.

I love FANG. I like BBG. But I am CLR. We are one and the same.

If, by chance, you happened to come upon my person and called out “YO, CLR”, I’d turn around as if you had called my name. If I get the chance to create another son, I will name him Charles Lawrence Robert, or better yet ROBERTO, after my favorite robot from Futurama.

Before today’s purchase of CLR, I was down 13% in the position. Following this double down, I will be down much less than that. However, the stakes are twice as large. I have some ground to make up, so it’s either go big or go home.

GLOBAL GROWTH IS BACK

Two major items to discuss this morning.

1. Saudi Arabia announced they’d cut production by 328,000 barrels in September to a total of 9.36 million barrels.

2. Caterpillar smashed analysts expectations.

Out of all the Dow 30 companies, an index that the venerable DAN NATHAN from Fast Money hates and despises, no company embodies the global growth narrative better than CAT. This earnings beat, this great chant, is an affirmation of the spectacular condition of global trade. Much to the amusement of myself and many others, The House of Saud has cut production, something the wild eyed conspiracy theorists said wouldn’t happen.

So let’s connect the dots, shall we?

Apple, producer of high quality premium products, annihilated estimates, solidifying the notion that money is still out there to be had, for quality products. Caterpillar crushed the skulls of those betting against the China story. Employment data is robust and US GDP is tracking 3% per annum.

But let’s talk about another important factor, something that isn’t being readily discussed.

Cheap oil.

What does it mean?

Well, if you compare today’s prices to those on July 4th, the US consumer is saving $160 million PER DAY. If prices stay at these levels for the next 12 months, it is estimated that US consumers will save an astounding $100 billion.

Now you and I both know people aren’t going to save those dollars. We can very well be setting up for the best holiday shopping season in a decade. Considering the fact that many retail stocks are in the gutter, it might be time to revisit some old names and position for grande eloquence this X-mas season.

 

And Here is Opportunity

I promise you, whenever Morgan Stanley decides to bring The Shake Shack public, I will put 20% of my net worth in it. I will buy the stock every month, after I earn my wage, and dollar cost average into the burger chain until they have 350 stores in the Unites Steaks. At the present, they own a little more than 50.

In the after hours, YELP is down a hard 10 after giving tepid guidance. This is a situation that should be monitored and action should be purposeful, for YELP, ultimately, trades much higher.

But let’s discuss the matter of valuation, shall we?

The stock is trading 17x sales, a tremendous burden for any CEO. Given the growth rate, YELP will trade 11-13x sales next year, providing the stock remains at these levels. There is a strong case to be made for 15x sales, but not 20x. I own a small position and will use any sizable decline to add to it.

The market closed at the lows and a terrorist event took place in Canada today. I’d be shocked if we didn’t trade lower tomorrow.

I sold out of my CYBR and set the proceeds to cash.

My best guess, looking at historical routs and subsequent bounces, we trade lower until Thursday of next week, then bounce the hardest.

 

Here is the Test

The newly minted geniuses are now being tested. Trust in your abilities to navigate these waters and account for another leg lower.

With crude at new lows, it’s very likely that we will begin to descend back down to the lows of last week. The very idea of $70 crude frightens people. It’s funny what a decade of super expensive crude can do to the minds of normal people. We now crave higher gasoline prices, in order to rubber stamp global growth and everything being ‘okay.’

Should the market rally off the lows and momo stocks catch a bid, you should sell them. Everything runs on crude, even America.

As for me, I’ve already thought this through and understand the risks associated with holding stocks in the midst of a maelstrom. The prospective losses are acceptable, providing I am permitted to make them back. I am pleased with most of my holdings and will tweak them whenever necessary.

But it’s important to not act rashly and understand that VIX instrument products are nothing more than a gateway drug to a lifetime’s worth of agony and dishevelment.

Keep your eye on the close for confirmation.

2014 iBankCoin Investors Conference