BIG FED DECISION LOOMS

I am deeply afflicted by allergies and do not have the focus to write a good blog. My condensed thoughts are as follows:

Market direction is bullish — but that can change if the Fed says hawkish things tomorrow.
Market can weaken if rates go up
Markets will prefer NO RATE hikes and confirmed pause

Whether this is good for the average Joe is immaterial. Since when does the market care about the average Joe? We have strong homebuilders, tech, and cheap energy. By the looks of it, barring a bank disaster, we have all of the possibilities of seeing a “soft landing.”

Naturally I do not want to see it and would prefer to see it burn. But as of now, we are bullish.

+204bps for the session, closed with hedges just in case.

Observe these two account — Fly Holdings is my tactical trading and the SL Quant is based off the Stocklabs algos allocated once per month. Fly Holdings also uses quant picks but using the weekly technical scores instead of monthly. For the most part, the picks are nearly identical. But look at the returns — one is +0.6% and the other is +32%

How? Why?

Understand something and know whom you are reading? All of those gains were done via using margin — bulking up on longs or more importantly hedging with 3x ETfs. While the world got their brains blown out in March, Le Fly extended his cock another 6%. And that’s the secret to investment success: you have to be me.

Sure, you can try and you might even outpace me for brief periods of time. But in the long run, like in most things in life — the cream rises to the top.

We have a relief rally underway and the perception is — the GREAT BANKING CRISIS IS OVER.

This might upset you to learn — but I am now BULLISH. This of course is subject to change on a whim and you should always be prepared for additional shoes to drop. However retarded the govt plan is, the notion of BACKSTOPPING ALL DEPOSITS is causing folks to froth from the mouth and buy stocks.

Tomorrow the Fed might do 25bps and indicate they’ll fuck off for a brief break. OR, they might raise 50bps and skull fuck bulls. TBH: it’s a very pivotal day, tomorrow is.

I am +2.1% and fully prepared to hedge a little to keep these gains. I am not a greedy man and accept my +32% YTD returns are mine, rightfully and lawfully earned. No one can take them away, since I deserve them and make them honestly. To keep them, I am willing to kill. Do not get in the way of my returns: you’ve been warned.

In summary, WE (the royal we) ARE BULLISH and look forward to more.

I had hedged mid-afternoon in order to lockdown my gains and only ended up wasting my time and money. The market doesn’t want to go lower — just like Russia doesn’t want to stop attacking the Ukraine. You should know what to expect, since FRC knifing lower by 40% for the day barely scared people out from their SCHW positions.

When it comes to these things, I tend to fall back on the idea that markets are the best barometer of risk. If there was fear, stocks would’ve been lower. Since they’re higher, markets have concluded risk to be minimal. While this will annoy you, especially my BEAR-TARD cadre of reader, understand that I am a person without a nation and have no pledges of loyalty to any group. I am independent thinking and will die that way.

Perhaps tomorrow we might enjoy some more downside action. But as of right now, this close, we are going the fuck higher.

PS: I hope I eat my words.

What are my qualification? All time motherfucking highs.

The systemic portion of the bank crisis is over — but the banks are still un-investable. THEY are not interested in equity or COCO bond holders — just the system itself. They will ensure the plumbing is clean and things are working — but will not think twice about zeroing out FRC in the process. Because of this, bank stocks should only be traded quickly and probably not at all. Other sectors are subject to economic conditions — which may in fact prove to be even worse than the recent banking scare.

I am 100% long again after my weekly quant allocation, +126bps for the session. In case you’re wondering, yes that is a new recourd high for me. Whilst your gains might be impressive — mine are better.

Enjoy yourselves and find solace in the fact your government is looking out for the plumbing of the banks to make sure your deposits are safe.

Prior to the recent bank scare, people were fixed on inflation and whether we’d soft land or not. I’ll be going back to that, since the central banks have all but nationalized the banks again. I mean, that’s what they did, no? If they’re backing all deposits then the banks aren’t independent but vassals of government. They’re not even too big to fail. They’re small fucker banks and have weaseled their way into tax payer backstops.

Oil is being walked down. It is my belief the pressure is coming from the Russian Ural spot market which is now trading at $48 due to the war. In other words, India is buying it at spot price and swinging around to grab the Brent arb price from Europe. The world is awash in Russian oil.

The most bullish thing for oil will be the end of the Ukraine war.

On that issue, Xi is in Moscow talking to Vlad. Perhaps they’ll iron out a nice plan that’ll get rejected by Zelensky — who is under orders by Biden to execute another counter offensive soon.

Bottom line: it’s time to forget about bank flops and focus back on the economy.

As expected, the Western Central Banks + Japan coordinated to not only bailout Credit Suisse via a -75% take under, but to also extend liquidity via swap lines.

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.

To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar funding, the central banks currently offering U.S. dollar operations have agreed to increase the frequency of 7-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations will commence on Monday, March 20, 2023, and will continue at least through the end of April.

All you need to know is the fight to contain inflation has ended. They’ll make it seem like this is normal shit — but nothing could be further from the truth. The banking elites are in panic mode to contain the collapse to just regional banks and unimportant non-systemic companies. Equity holders will be sacrificed in order to preserve the integrity of the system.

I wouldn’t jump the gun and get overly bearish on this news. You have to understand, the pubic perception of QE is positive, since each time they did this it led to higher stock prices.

Will western bankers succeed again in papering over their fuckery? Time will tell. But judging by recent events, they’re undefeated in successfully kicking the can down the road.

On the other hand, the war still wages and China moves closer and closer to Russia and America the spiteful moves closer and closer to thinking an all out war with Russia is a good idea.

NASDAQ FUTS are +80 because muscle memory.

On the bear side, keep an eye on UBS CDS. They spiked hard after the deal for CS was announced. Should they continue lower, we’ll crash.

SIRS —

In between sips of beer and cooking two corned beefs, I clawed out from a -150bps hole to end only -56bps. The reason for this is simple: I am a highly efficient, highly competent, ultra professional manager of money. There is never a trading day that I cannot pull rabbits out from hats and amaze others with astounding feats of magic.

For the week, I made 2%.

As of the banks.

WORST PERFORMING BANK STOCKS FOR THE WEEK$FRC -75%$PACW -53%$WAL -50%$FFWM -43%$CUBI -33%$BKU -32%$MCB -31%$CMA -30%$FHN -29%$HPP -29%$KEY -29%$CS -29%$ZION -29%$UMBF -27%

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) March 17, 2023

They’re gonna bail them all out. But until they do, many more will go under and pain will be felt by equity holders.

Into the weekend, I am hedged with UVIX, TZA and I own a 10% position in BITO — because BTC has been defensive.

It’s nearly impossible for me to justify heading into the weekends without some shorts. There are too many red flags out there now to just sit idle and hope dip buyers show up Monday.

As usual, I’ll see you in Stocklabs on Monday for another weekly allocation into the quant.

To my Irish brethren: enjoy the day and drink merrily and eat fatly — for this is likely to be the last St. Paddy’s Day you’ll enjoy prior to the ultimate and final collapse of Western Finance.

Many people were disappointed with BTC during the inflation driven market the past year, as the asset proved to be nothing more than a risk asset. It did not display a defensive trait.

However, as we see the banks flop out and systemic risk cause people to run on their banks — it’s very obvious that BTC and gold are the biggest winners.

BTC is up 8% the past month whilst gold is up 6%.

As a matter of fact, the action was so impressive I’m thinking about creating a new buying program for it as part of an asset allocation model. There is no denying that people are more familiar with BTC now than any FX instrument. In the event of a real dollar crisis, BTC would fucking moon shot and explode to triple figures. There is a base case to buy it now, as a defensive measure against systemic bank failure.

Breadth in the financials is 85% today, based off whims of ideas from Bill Ackman’s twitter feed, essentially.

Consider Bill the ambassador from Wall Street to DC. Whatever he wants — he will get.

Our gov’t’s failure to provide a temporary guarantee on all deposits is causing an unnecessary banking crisis which could have a profoundly negative effect on the economy. Confidence is destroyed quickly and can take years and sometimes decades to be restored.

Three dominoes… https://t.co/n9rsHhndbG

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) March 16, 2023

The whim is TOTAL BAILOUT. Overseas people are optimistic that CS will be backstopped/bailed out. However, UBS just told Swiss regulators to fuck off and they weren’t at all interested in merging with the toxic wasteland that is CS.

Be smart. Don’t go all in short like a moron into an 85% breadth day on the cusp of more bailouts. Oh you think you’re gonna win? How has that worked out for you so far, Mr. Bear? They shut the whole economy down in 2020 and marked ripped higher because of it.

I am 100% long quality stocks selected by the Stocklabs quant. My sole margined positions are TMV and FAZ. I am now 14% weighted FAZ and will add more — perhaps tomorrow. Having a hedge makes me feeeeeel safe in these existential times of grave uncertainty.

I am +1.7% with 45 mins to go, cooly listening to Stan Getz in my library — surrounded by leather-bound books and Chesterfield couches.