18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,113 Blog Posts

Don’t Get Discouraged By Uncooperative Markets

I hope you’re enjoying the seasonal weather and taking advantage of your opportunity to make some memories. The market will always be here, even when we’re long gone, but youth is fleeting and before you know it — you’ll be getting kicked down a flight of stairs while in your wheeled chair.

I always tell people to lower their expectations during the summer months. Traditionally, this is a do-nothing time of year, as most men of leisure of circumstance are summering in Nantucket or Newport, or some other North East locale worth traveling to.

As a matter of fact, for the month of August, bonds perform best, with a little side order of gold — according to Exodus‘ seasonality engines.




Come September, volatility will be kicking up again, junior of the trading turret will be unceremoniously kicked off and things will begin to get back to normal. Even though it’s tempting to believe in a great big gay summer rally, it most likely will elude us, so use this time to research and plot for the fall.

I discussed the divergences in my last post. Expect more of the same, an ideal tape for incredible traders, such as myself, to thrive in, whilst leaving everyone else in the fucking dust.

Off to walk the dogs and chase down some rabbits.

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This is Truly a Stock Pickers Market

If you’re frustrated with this market, especially after reading my posts about unchecked trading success, don’t be. This has been a really tough year for many people, especially if you went on overweight into the wrong sectors. Overall, the market is up roughly 1%, hardly a return worth getting excited about. Underneath the hood of that +1%, the divergence is drastic.

Basic Materials: -1.57%
Consumer Goods: -3.1%
Financials +1.9%
Healthcare +10%
Industrials -2.4%
Services +1.5%
Tech +6.5%
Utilities -1.7%

The +1% return I cited above includes ~5,000 stocks. The indices you see everyday have much smaller populations and boast solid returns. The Nasdaq is +15%, S&P +5%, and very weak and fat Dow is up only 1.5%.

Let’s dig even deeper.

Within the top two sectors, healthcare and tech, here are the biggest winners: healthcare plans is +21%, medical instruments and supplies +19%, application software +33%, security software +29%.

Within those two sectors, there are footprints to success that we can follow. I’m trying to show you how I build a profile to detect money flow in Exodus.

Stock with caps above $100b are up 10% in tech for the year. However, as we walk down the spiral staircase of the complicated tech world, we find a sweat spot at $5-10 billion, which sports returns of +23% — more than double the mega cap names.

In healthcare, the story is the same. The smaller the cap the better he return. Stock with caps between $1-5 billion are +30% this year, while the larger capped stocks are up less than 10%. It’s important to note micro caps under $1 billion are not fairing well.

What is the reason for this divergence?

I suspect it has a lot of to with positioning into domestic names that do not have exposure to Trump’s trade war. Also, when excess is abundant, investors love to speculate in small cap.

The one caveat, however, is FANNG. If incline, you can simply ignore everything I just said, hours of research and analysis, and buy Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. Had you done that in the beginning of 2018, you’d be up a genteel 37% this year.

Fuck my life.

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I once built an ark. Now I just shitpost all day, making bags of money.

Before I head out, I wanted to own this piece of shit Chinese stock. I like the MUH chart.

Look at that wonderful knifing lower action. Very beautiful.

Have a great weekend.

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I Hereby Declare Today ‘Eat a Sandwich Day’

Tech is the only sector worthwhile and that’s a fact. It is, quite literally, doing nothing today. It’s rather amusing to see breadth at exactly 50% and the entire complex flat for the session. This is your cue to head out early and go to the beach.

As for sandwiches, I just had some coppa delicately placed between two pieces of very rustic tuscan with a little Dijon added afterwards. Only fucking retards put mayo on sandwiches and morons place the mustard into the sandwich before placing it into the panini press. I know what some of you god damned idiots will say — “dijon has mayo in it’.

Fuck yourself.

If you had to categorize the condiment in either mayo or mustard, what would it be?


Fly wins again.

My portfolio is flat, just like your face. My Quant is higher by 0.12% — because it is diversified, unlike my batshit crazy trading account. Truth of the matter is, I love this shit too much than to relegate all of the fun to my robots.

Do join us for free trials in Exodus, as they are running on a continuous basis. You may only take 1 over a 6 month period. If you join and do not know what to do, email me and I will hop on a webinar with you for a live demo.

Off to the beach.


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Trump Said Crazy Stuff Today; Stocks Trade Higher

Ok, let’s go thru today’s list of crazy shit the President said, just to get it out of the way.

We can fight a trade war with China now because ‘We’re playing with the bank’s money’.

Trump: ‘We’re playing with the bank’s money’ on market’s gain since election to fight trade war from CNBC.

He’s taking aim at the Fed. How dare he!

Trump says he’s ready to ‘go to 500’, referring to maximum tariffs on all Chinese goods coming into the US, in order to teach them what they need to be told.

Trump weighs in on the trade war with China from CNBC.

On this news, the dollar is getting claw hammered by 0.6% v the euro — because it implies Trump’s pressure on the Fed might translate into an easier Fed. And, that is having a positive effect on stocks. The Nasdaq is +!5.

See how fucking pointless this all is?

Buy stocks.

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Matt Drudge headlined Musk this evening, capping off a multi-pronged effort to dethrone King of Tesla. I find it all rather amusing how every Tesla car accident makes front page news and how Musk’s sanity is called into question all the time, mostly by zealots and short sellers.

Granted, his genius has given license to a wide array of eccentricities. Still, the people who are attacking him, mostly, are lamentable sub-human creatures, underserving of attention, but he gives it to them nonetheless. I cannot fathom why he does; then again, I’ve never had the mental capacity to build a fucking space rocket either. He’s wired much differently than 99.9% of humans.

Cut through the smoke and these are the facts about Musk and Tesla.

In 2010, sales were ~$30m per quarter. Now sales are $3.4b per quarter.

The stock is up 10x since then and higher by 7% over the past 6 months, 200bps better than the SPY.

With a market cap of $51b, I find it incredibly humorous to even imply that Tesla is in financial trouble. The fucking company can raise $5b tomorrow in a mildly dilutive secondary, and not even break a sweat. Why, the stock would probably trade higher on the news.

Nevertheless, here’s the entertainment, courtesy of the internet and the NY Post.

  • Musk’s calling in a request to Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune to make public the $6 million-plus in previously anonymous donations that Musk made to the environmental group.
  • His purpose, as reported by Bloomberg, was to deflect flak for donating $38,900 to a pro-Republican PAC last quarter.
    Musk got around to apologizing to the “pedo guy” on Wednesday, acknowledging the rescuer’s criticism of the mini-submarine Musk sent to assist in the soccer team’s rescue does “not justify my actions against him.”
    Musk’s sincerity was suspect, however, as the “pedo guy” had already threatened to sue.
  • Musk’s 22.2 million Twitter followers give the entrepreneur a bully pulpit that he ill-advisedly used this month to dress down a blog writer Linette Lopez.
    On July 5, he tweeted, “@lopezlinette has published several false articles about Tesla, including a doozy where she claimed Tesla scrapped more batteries than our total S,X &3 production number, which is physically impossible.”
    He also accused the Business Insider writer of being motivated by short-seller Jim Chanos, whom Musk called “Tesla’s most prominent short-seller.”
    “Her articles print Chanos’ view verbatim,” he added. “This is not journalism.”
  • Musk doesn’t limit his wrath to individual journalists, which is why on May 23 he said he’d take on the entire industry by developing a fake news/honest journalism scorecard.
    “Going to create a site where the public can rate the core truth of any article & track the credibility score over time of each journalist, editor & publication,” he tweeted. “Thinking of calling it Pravda…”
    “The holier-than-thou hypocrisy of big media companies who lay claim to the truth, but publish only enough to sugarcoat the lie, is why the public no longer respects them,” he continued.
  • Many believe the cloud over Musk’s head took shape during a May 2 analyst earnings call.
    “Boring, bonehead questions are not cool,” he said in response to a question about Tesla’s projected capital expenditures. “These questions are so dry. They’re killing me.”

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Losing Simply Isn’t an Option For Me

While markets might look somber today, Le Fly continues to win. How, pray tell?

My Quant portfolio is higher by a whopping 64bps, 90bps better than the indices. I kick people in the heads for a living.

Anyone can partake. My strategies are open to the public and are updated once per month. If you have money in the market and retain the services of a “financial advisor” in 2018, you are a complete idiot. Do yourselves a favor and fire your broker and take control of your money. They suck.

In my trading account, I’m heavily long retail now: M, BOOT, SFIX, and DECK. Other positions that are notably strong today include APPF, SRAX, EVBG, and VNET.

Into the bell, I am 20% cash, 100% win.

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Since my last post, my powers within the retail sector have increased. Thanks to my new status as boss of all shopping malls, some of my competitors are salty AF.

Nevertheless, I beat on — boats against the current.

To conclude my retail exposure, I stepped in and bought SFIX. This is the tech portion of the play, very nice and thin — believe me.

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Look at Me, I’m a Retail Expert Now

Feeling good and positive, in spite of the indices dour and somber look, I upped my retail exposure and bought some BOOT and DECK.

I’m an expert in retail now, an authority on all things to do with spending money inside shopping malls.

Mostly everything is dead, sans retail. It’s possible that I am top ticking here, which is part and parcel of trying to chase momentum. But given the apparent resurgence in the sector, I am willing to gamble there will be some follow thru on this leg higher.

If not, stops will be tight, roughly 5-10% below basis.

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We’re Going Shopping! Long $M

Death to Sears; Death to JC Penney — long live Macy’s.

Every Macy’s I’ve ever been to, with exception to the giant one in NYC, was a heaping pile of shit. I much prefer Nordstrom’s or Saks — but I digress. Normal people, especially the poor, love Macy’s. They bring their small children there, with their happy little lives, and buy garments with fanciful names on them — logos and socks. They always buy lots of “designer” socks.

All that being said, M is breaking out now, as markets Mcplunge lower. You’d be wise to take a good look at M — especially since the summer months are a good occasion to be long retail.

Fun fact: Macy’s has booked its first back to back YOY quarterly revenue growth numbers since 2013.

Retail is back, apparently.

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