Well, even though the Fed statements didn’t point to tapering, the market is acting as if they did.
IYR is off by 1.6%
TLT is off by 0.8%
The dollar is +0.7%
Stocks are lower.
Bill Gross is on CNBC saying he’s a buyer of bonds here, thinking there isn’t any signs the Fed will unwind. The yen is lower, so that’s good news. I am mixed here. The initial reaction is always bogus. I want to see IYR and TLT rebound before buying stocks again. Those two ETFs are the proverbial canary in the coal mine, with regards to rates and where the market believes they’re heading.
For now, I am still at 60% cash.
The market is trading down anyway.
No word about tapering, so far.
I am working purely off intuition here. Might I preface what I am about to tell you with sheer facts: it’s almost impossible to game the Fed. Just when you think the market will tank, it reverses and applies THE IRON LOTUS to the heads of short sellers. When a melt up looks all but assured, it collapses like a cheap Chinese building in a really poor part of Mongolia.
I reversed my position and sold out of AMBA, for a decent 11% gain. In addition, I sold out of MTU and WETF, making that two complete sales of companies that I promised to “double up on” should the market decline. Naturally, if the market rises I will go down as the greatest fool who has ever existed on the planet. On the other hand, holding a 60% cash position, while up 32% for the year, at the onset of the summer and potentionally treacherous Fed day, well, that isn’t exactly a bad place to be, quite frankly.
The stark truth is I am yellow, afraid to lose. The man who risks nothing never loses. Having said that, I still have a monster position in IMMR intact and another tradable position in YGE, alongside a few others.
The BDI has been ripping higher, along with virtually all shipping rates, especially for Capesize’s
Top ranked shippers, by technicals, are OSGIQ, STNG, TK, NM, SB and VLCCF.
Naturally, this is great news for the industry. My favorite leveraged play on the industry is FRO.
Over the past month, pandemonium has broken loose on Wall Street, tanking the values of munis, treasuries and high yield corporate debt. Moreover, REITs and utilities have been hammered into panned cakes.
Since 2008, I’ve kept a Risk Appetite Index inside of The PPT to track potential dislocations in credit. It was supposed to warn members of impending doom. But it was a different world back then. Now Detroit can filed for bankruptcy and the Dow trades up on the news. Truly bizarre.
1 mo view of RAI
Pretty bad, eh?
Now have a look at the chart over a longer time frame.
POW! That chart screams “punch me in the face with a bag of wooden nickels.” Yet, markets have yawned it off, while eating a plate filled with boiled yams.
The Fed is either going to confirm “TAPERMANIA” or deny it, thereby causing a few things to happen.
Under a confirmation of TAPERMANIA, the following should occur.
1. TLT will get smashed.
2. REITs and Utilities will drop 3%.
3. Commodities and the overall markets will undergo significant selling pressure.
If TAPERMANIA is denied, the following should occur.
1. TLT will edge higher. It will not rip, because stocks will do that.
2. REITs and utilities will sharply rebound.
3. Beaten down commodity plays, like Iron Ore, Gold and Coal, will outperform the markets.
4. Market soars.
I do not believe there is a middle ground. I know every single Fed meeting is the most important meeting of all time. The media has a way of over-dramatizing these events. Nonetheless, you shouldn’t enter tomorrow without a game plan. Failure to deny TAPERMANIA will most likely lead to the cancellation of the summer rally, in exchange for 5 weeks of misery.
Rub some VXX on your chests, eat hearty, for tomorrow you will trade from hell.
I’m done for the day, having raised enough cash to buy core positions on dips. Everything you see now is phantom. This can all be washed away with Bernanke’s taper gun tomorrow. Or, perhaps the rally continues, once people find out that Ben prefers the company of transvestite hookers when deciding upon policy.
I intend to double my position sizes in WETF and AMBA. In other words, I am circling the wagons around a few stocks, but cannot justify buying them now ahead of a market moving event.
GTAT looks like it wants higher again. Hell, many stocks look real good. I just don’t feel like jumping in front of trucks yet.
I sold out of YELP and ANFI for profits and tossed the proceeds into a money market. I want to double the size of my AMBA and WETF positions and now I have the money to do it.
The prudent thing to do is wait until after the Fed news to take action, so that’s exactly what I intend to do.
I am long the very best of stocks. My timely exit from part of my FRO position was worthwhile, seeing today’s action. I am very bullish on a few names: AMBA, YGE and IMMR. I have lots of stocks, some are good, others are great. IMMR is great.
Come get your haptic smack, five fingers striking your face like an african drum.
It pains to say it, but AAPL is dead. The company is being destroyed by Tim Cook. Samsung is doing it. IMMR is your play on the Samsung juggernaut. If you’re not familiar with IMMR’s technology, become acquainted. There are very few IP companies that actually bank coin. VHC wishes they could be doing what IMMR is doing, with regards to signed royalty agreements.
All that aside, I’ve been trying to find another stock to buy, but nothing strikes me as good. I do like FXCM, especially since currencies have gone wild.
For now, I am in a holding pattern. My gut tells me we sell off post Fed.
Oh by the way, the pinless hand grenade action in gold and silver will place some junior miners into receivership. NAV’s are dropping rapidly and credit downgrades are imminent.
Forget about futures or where your stupid stocks open this morning. The real action will come after the Fed has their say, tomorrow afternoon. Will the Fed “taper” as many suggest? Or, will Ben and Co. continue the path of God, liquifying the markets so that we might enjoy splendour, live leisurely while the poor suck on pieces of black coal and mutton?
All of these questions, AND MORE, will be answered tomorrow.
For now, sit back and relax like a man on deathrow just one day before he is to visit ol sparky.
This could go down as one of those posts that mark the exact top in the markets, at least for awhile. But there is something that’s been gnawing at me and no one seems to be talking about it: INPUT COSTS!
The above table is my raw commodity index inside of The PPT. As you can see, over the past two years most commodities have collapsed. No wonder SBUX, SJM, DNKN and GMCR are doing so well. Coffee is down 60%!
Curious as to how HSY got to $90 p/s? Look no further than the price of cocoa and sugar down 30%.
My guess, companies had some hedges against the rise in commodity prices. But they’re probably going to lighten up on them now, since there isn’t any pressure on raw materials. If this trend continues, miners and farmers enter the fag box and never leave. Manufacturers will see their margins explode, even grocery stores stand to benefit. Look at NGVC as of late.
If timber comes in, residential construction will benefit, as well as makers of furniture. The fact that cotton is down 25% helps retailers and clothing manufacturers, just like a lower price of oil and distillates helps truckers and shippers.
Make no mistake, lower natty and coal is by design, a great tax cut for the unwashed American pleb shopping for broccoli at Walmart.
Wheat and corn have been weak, helping chicken companies like PPC and SAFM. There are so many benefits to lower input prices it’s hard to isolate a single idea. I think it’s fair to say it’s a gigantic boon for the entire country. We’ve been blessed with cheap coal and natural gas, now everything else is getting cheap.