iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,453 Blog Posts

Goldman Report Warning of 25% Market Drop is a Shitpost

These people can’t stop lying. One of Goldman’s economists, Daan Struyven, issued a report declaring that if the 10yr jumped to an absurd 4.5% this year, well then, stocks would decline by 20 to 25%. Daan’s (I feel like a goat saying his name) base case scenario is for the 10yr to run up to 3.25% by the end of 2018; but that’s a very boring and monotone point of view. To spice it up a bit, he chucked in a scenario that is an impossibility.

Might I posit the 10yr is less likely to jump to 4.5% this year than a gigantic asteroid striking the planet rendering all life obsolete.

He couched his asinine report by calling it a ‘stress test.’

But it makes for good headlines so expect to see and hear all of the faggots sashay to and fro discusses this very important note today and tomorrow.

I’m guessing Daan is a Dutch name — a nice man from Amsterdam? I didn’t start this blog with the intention of being mean. Truth be told, I’m in a good mood and don’t really have a bone to pick. But come on — these notes are designed to shake people upside down until their money drops out of them, permitting Daan’s employers to gobble it all up like Noo-Noo.

Fuck off Daan and double fuck off Goldman Ball Sachs.

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Follow Up on Today’s Lesson of the Day: DON’T BUY GOOD CHINA; KEEP BUYING SHIT

My ‘editorial staff’ permitted my previous article to be published with a glaring dose of heinous stupidity.

The premise: buy good china — because MUH lady friends and MUH rate of return.

What I failed to include was compounded rates of return and MUH inflation. When you calculate the compounded rate of return, it equals out to just 3.51%, turning an $85 investment in 1918 into $2,400 today. After inflation, it turns to complete shit. An $85 purchase in 1918 dollars is equal to $1,395, leaving the rate of return substantially less than the 3.51% quoted pre-inflation. You’d be better off investing in just about anything else in the world other than fancy Haviland china.

Given the circumstances and the fucking hassle in preserving fine china and washing them all the time, one could argue buying and eating on crappy generic paper’d plates is preferable. This way, you can whip something up real quick, eat it, then toss it into the landfill.

As for entertaining guests, take them to a fine eatery. Who the fuck hosts dinner parties at home these days anymore, anyhow? In the event you’re having a party, serve on those fancy hard plastic ones and tell them they’re environmentally friendly and that you oppose the fine china industry because it employs slave and child labor in the far east and that you will not be a party to such shenanigans.

Off to go buy some food for a late dinner snack.

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Lesson of the Day: BUY GOOD CHINA; STOP BUYING SHIT

One of my favorite pastimes is to read old newspapers. I have a collection of them, dating back to the 18th century. But you can also accomplish this by searching the Google News archives or via a subscription to the very evil failing NY Times.

One hundred years ago to the day, the NY Times was discussing a sundry of issues — all Great War related topics; Germans being Germans, Russians being Russians. One thing caught my eye — this advertisement.

That looked like a damned good deal, no? A 100+ piece set of china for 85 bucks. Now imagine if you “wasted” your money on a nice 100 piece Haviland set back then and passed it onto your stupid grandkids. What would it be worth today?

Roughly $2,399. That’s a nice rate of return of 2,722% or 27.22% annually over 100 years. Granted, 2,722% can be had in a few idle months investing in SHITCOINS; nevertheless, it’s a proper rate of return — is it not?

At that time, the Dow Jones was roughly the same price as a fine set of Haviland china: $76. That investment is a little sketch, since you’d be cursed by varying changes in the Dow and would’ve been wiped out during the Great Depression. Betting on America in 1918 was, essentially, equivalent on a long bet on the success of the country — something of massive unknown qualities, especially in the midst of a giant war. Had you played the momo trade, when America was clearly great and dominant, you would’ve bought in at the top of the market in 1929, at $300, and would’ve been fucked and underwater until 1954. During that same time, you could’ve hosted plenty of dinner parties on your fine Haviland china and possibly convert those occasions into tangible money making opportunities (e.g., impressing a boss or maybe even a lady friend).

Plus anyway, the Dow’s gains aren’t too impressive if you look at them over time. Hell, it just broke $1,000 during the 1980s and the fucker got down to $6,500 during the 2009 financial crisis. Meanwhile, that Haviland china set remained comfortably intact, the star of your dinner parties, immune to the fuckery of financial markets.

The point is this: instead of buying a lot of shitty things, buy a few really good things. For example, you can buy 10 shitty suits for the price of one good one. You can buy paper plates for the rest of your lives and literally throw away your investment, or buy a fine set of Haviland and see it rise to $25,000 over the next century.

STOP BUYING SHIT.

UPDATE: The compounded rate of return was 3.51%. I was off by a smidge — a rounding error.

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BUY FRACKERS NOW

I am long FTK as my principle fracking play and now I bought CRR. There is a massive movement taking place in the sector. Have a look at TUSK, AROC, CCLP, SND, and HCLP as evidence of this renewed animalistic spirit.

There’s a litany of these names to choose from. Here’s a comment left inside the Pelican Room yesterday, highlighting some of my favorites.

While you opt to ignore the fact that stocks are +300 today and Brent crude is above $67, I will not. I shall not and can never ignore money when it is staring at me right in my face.

The next big move in the market will be lead by the oils. The price is primed for rapid expansion — ahead of the ‘driving season.’

You’d be wise to step in now, otherwise prepare to sit on the sidelines watching greater men have all of the fun.

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Gundlach: The Spirit of the Market Being Moved by Bitcoin

When I told you this was happening, it was met with snobbish consternation by you absolute faggots traveling in this comment section. Now that Gundlach, aka The Bond King, agrees with my viewpoint — will you now accept it to be true?

Gundlach on Bitcoin driving social mood in the market now.

You have a negative correlation to the market, virtually clueless as to what is taking place around you. Truth be told, you should thank the Gods that I choose to educate you on a daily basis — gracing you with my market wisdom and market hand.

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Rates Drop; Utes, REITs Explode to the Upside

In recent years Utes and REITs traded on their own accord. But now they are directly correlated to the fate of treasuries. We’re having a very fine market today and we’re all making money — but no one is making coin like UTEfags and REITards.

Best way to play Utes is XLU, and REITs: DRN.

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Markets Will Soar Today; It is Quite Literally Indestructible

Dow futures are +175, Nasdaq +50. Commodities are flat and the cucks in Europe irrelevant. Welcome to another day of American styled stock market. Happy Friday.

Here are the pre-market movers.

Gapping up: BUFF +17.3%, IMMR +16.9%, NSPR +14.1%, KZIA +13.2%, MOMO +6.9%, HUN +6.5%, MIC +2.9%, TS +2.2%, LGCY +1.7%, SHPG +1.5%, INFN +1.4%, ALB +1.2%, KBR +1.2%, UTX +1.1%, MNK +1%, ASIX +1%, ROKU +0.8%, CAR +0.7%,

Gapping down: ACIA -15.2%, OLED -12.2%, WING -9.8%, RBS -3.4%, F -0.8%, COG -0.8%, LITE -0.5%

As you can see, there are those who read the prospectus and those who did not. Those who didn’t own ACIA, OLED, and WING. Those who did are enjoying great gains — because they were well informed and they knew the risks and the prospectus, this holy document of investment knowledge and sageness, led them down the path of riches.

Investing is so easy, especially when aptly informed. I might have to write another book about investing, with/without the prospectus.

By the way, General Mills is buying Blue Buffalo.

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Futures Are Way Up — Look At How Stupid You’ve Become

It’s amazing how many of you idiots shorted stocks into the close because the Dow was only up 164. You keep waiting for shoes to drop; meanwhile spears keep getting thrown thru your chest cavity.

Dow futures are +140, Asian markets are sharply higher, and European futures are edge lording a tad higher.

It’s rather humorous, is it not — how dreadful an investor you are. That’s ok, do not feel bad. I will permit you to toss stones at me whenever one of my short vol trades blow up for 100% drawdowns or whenever CNBC visits a crypto-shit proxies office festooned with shit stained rugs, sending shares sharply lower.

I can take it — believe me.

But what I cannot take is stupidity. Quit gambling away your future on everyone else’s being ruined. Join the party and sip on the Kool-aid. It’s quite delicious.

NOTE: The Exodus Quant fund is CRUSHING SKULLS so far and will undergo a radical realignment come March 1st, should everything remain as is.

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RARE FLAG ALERT: Exodus Nearly Chimped Out — All is Fine For Now

Earlier today an apocalyptic flag was given in Exodus, a forced oversold signal that made all scores plunge. On face value, it looked like an error — an aberration of some sort that happened as stocks climbed higher. It was, indeud, the rarest of flags and it has never happened in our 10 year history.

The reason?

Correlating factors with bond yields and equity prices hit a tipping point. This is supported by decades of research that proves, inexorably, stocks do well when yields go higher. This trigger is tied to the 30yr bond. Since then yields have gone back down and the flag was removed, but if yields should race lower again — the scores of Exodus might be entering a phase of suppressed scores which will change the dynamics of all oversold/overbought prices.

Aside from merely grading stocks based on technicals and fundamentals, we have a ‘sub rosa’ category tied to currencies, commodities, treasury yields — which is also pinpointed at specific sectors. For example, lower oil prices is a negative for drillers, but a positive for airlines.

Into the bell, you should be disappointed in the market — giving up a gigantic rally like this. From what I’ve gathered, the only reasonable area of investment today is crude and crude related stocks.

I exit the day happily long CHK, ESV, and FTK.

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RIP Aubrey McClendon: I’m Buying Your Company Now

Several years ago the former founder of CHK drove directly into a brick wall at 100mph. The coroners concluded it was NOT a suicide, in spite of the fact that Aubrey was facing a decade in prison for fuckery largess.

“He pretty much drove straight into the wall,” Balderrama said on March 2, according to NBC affiliate KFOR. “The information out there at the scene is that he went left of center, went through a grassy area right before colliding into the embankment. There was plenty of opportunity for him to correct and get back on the roadway and that didn’t occur.”

Since then, his company has suffered mightily, due to its highly leveraged balance sheet and struggling price of crude.

All of that is about to change, now that I bought the company.

Effective immediately, “The Fly” is in charge of Chesapeake Energy. I expect those barrels to be filled with a fuckload of oil and the workers in the field, 24 hours per day, toiling away to increase shareholder value. If not, I will shut the company down and everyone will have to live off welfare.

GET TO WORK (snaps whip).

This morning the company reported BETTER THAN EXPECTED results. We have the best oil companies, don’t we folks?

Chesapeake Energy beats by $0.05, beats on revs (2.63)
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.30 per share, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.25; revenues rose 24.6% year/year to $2.52 bln vs the $1.26 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Average 2017 production of approximately 547,800 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day, up 3 percent compared to 2016 levels, adjusted for asset sales; oil production up 11 percent in 2017 fourth quarter compared to 2016 fourth quarter, adjusted for asset sales.
2018 Outlook

Projected 2018 capital expenditures program of approximately $1.975 – $2.375 billion, down 12 percent compared to 2017 levels, using midpoint.

Total 2018 production, adjusted for asset sales, expected to grow approximately 3 percent year-over-year, using midpoint; oil volumes adjusted for asset sales, expected to grow by approximately 5 percent compared to 2017 levels, using midpoint.

I stepped into the stock sideways, looking at the shares higher by 15% for the session. The rationale was and is simple: we are looking for much higher prices. By “we”, I mean it in the most royal way possible. You’d be wise to speak as I do, especially at cocktail parties and during charitable venues. It throws people off-guard, forcing them into spiraling identity crises.

On the matter of oil, it is my belief House Trump and House Saud struck an accord earlier this year to walk the price of crude inexorably higher. Following the arrest and seizures of personal wealth inside the Saudi Royal family, we’ve seen the price of crude steadily increase. This bodes well for Trump, who will then shill for more oil jobs — succoring Americans into a false sense of security that all will be well once we keep drilling for the black gold. Truth is, you can suck all of the black gold dick in the world and it would have no affect on the price of crude in the interim, as that is quite literally controlled by OPEC — which is controlled by House Saud — which circles back to us.

It is a fucking tax, people.

Top picks: FTK, ESV, CHK and CLF.

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