18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,115 Blog Posts

The Run Will Not Last

Someone once said: “hell is a place where there is no reason.” Well, this, my little internet friends, is hell—for nothing reasonable is transpiring.

For example: [[UBS]] writes down 19 billion big ones, and reports a 12 billion dollar loss, sending the stock significantly to the upside.

Or, [[LEH]] raises 3 billion dollars, under unfavorable/dilutive terms, sending the stock through the roof.

Or, the ISM and construction data, which was released this morning, was bad—but could have been worse. As a result, the market runs 300 points in your face.

Basically, we have a bunch of bottom bitches out and about buying stocks, who have no regard for the laws of reason. What’s reasonable to me is seeing [[MON]] lower. Also, it makes sense seeing gold get the “hammer of certain death.” And, I understand why commodities are weak.

The bulls are running on the notion that we are out of the mess. There is no longer a “credit crisis,” and the recession will be very shallow. Before you know it, the low rate environment will spur a new round of economic growth and we all live happily ever after.

However, the problem with that story is that it does not include potential inflationary effects of such a rapid turn around in the economy. The only reason why commodities are “somewhat tame” is due to forecasted economic weakness in the States.

If you think copper, steel, coal, natty, oil and concrete are expensive now, imagine what they will be if the U.S. was growing at a 4% clip.

My point is this: in order to pop the commodity bubble, the Fed should be raising rates, not lowering them to zero. All this jibber-jabber of a bottom is ridiculous, as long as the consumer is saddled with high finished food, gasoline, natural gas and electricity expenses.

With my money, I will buy [[FXP]] under $90, [[SRS]] under $95 and [[SKF]] under $105. Also, with commodities under pressure, I will buy more [[SMN]], [[DCR]], [[DUG]] and sell short [[POT]] and MON.

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Late Night Thought

My kitchen appliances cost more than your fucking car.


UPDATE: Coming soon…. iBankCoin the Movie.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gO7f1z5P0xg 450 300]

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Quarter Ends with Stupidity

Bulls ran stocks up, towards the end of trading, marking an end to a ridiculously bad quarter for most money managers.

All quarter long, in the face of obvious and easy to read headwinds, long biased managers got their heads handed to them. Frankly, I really do believe they are stupid people. I know a lot of people in the industry and I can tell you with certainty: 90% of money managers should not be running other people’s money.

Being one way all the time, whether bullish or bearish, defines ignorance.

It is not patriotic to be long stocks all the time, no matter what. Do you think the Government gives a fuck if you are long or short? Moreover, do you think someone will help you recover egregious capital losses, due to your “patriotic” long bias?

If you didn’t know by now, as in life, investing is good ol’ fashioned grenade tossing warfare. If you’re not careful, a [[SGP]], [[BSC]] or a [[MER]] grenade will blow off your arms and legs.

Why not pick up that [[LEH]] grenade and toss it back to the dumb fucker who is willing to pick it up?

That’s all the market is, tossing hand grenades back and forth.

During Q1, “The Fly” advanced, through capital gains, by more than 30%. Without a doubt, I nailed this market, like no one else—thanks to my “calculator brain” and “space alien magician” ways.

Going into Q2, I will redouble my “fuck China efforts,” via long [[FXP]] and short [[LFC]]. And, I will help facilitate the decline in ag related names, via long [[SMN]] and short [[MON]].

Finally, I will not short financials into weakness. Instead, I will wait for the bottom fishers to mark them up, then I will lean on them. My favorite financial shorts are: [[FED]], [[WM]], [[DSL]] and [[LEH]].

Off to crunch numbers.

UPDATE: You have to see this. Classic.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP-fjFBVRuU 450 300]

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For a Guy Who’s Not into Making Friends…

…he sure has a lot of friends.

I’m talking Cramer. His buddy/pal Fred Hassan, idiot Supreme, CEO of [[SGP]], just blew up Cramer’s disciples, in a very big way. As you know, Cramer has been pounding the drums of stupidity for his buddy Fred, for a long long time.

I know a guy who swears by everything Cramer says. He goes home, kicks up his feet, and transforms himself into a fucking sponge, hanging onto Cramer’s every word.

As a result, he has blown out his 500k account, along with his kids UGMA accounts.

Quite sad, actually.

The problem with Cramer is that he makes too many friends. He gets stubborn about stocks who are run by CEO’s he respects, such as: [[SHLD]], [[NYX]], [[GS]], [[MER]], [[BSC]], [[NLY]] and [[SGP]].

We all pick losers. However, none of us suck the knobs of the CEO’s who destroy us. Cramer is fucking guilty of pandering to the CEO’s of the above companies, much to the chagrin of his followers.

NOTE: Does CNBC purposefully invite idiot money managers to tell us (audience) how great stocks are, down at these levels?

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Still Going

I’m like the fucking energizer bunny of this “investment game.” You can’t stop me, even if you killed me. In the event of my untimely death, my ghost would lift out of my body, all angry and shit, and still trade this market better than 99.9% of you “goat guzzlers” (I have no idea what “goat guzzler means. But, it doesn’t sound good).

Despite today’s shit painting parade, “The Fly” is up 1.2%, led by my purposeful short positions in [[MON]], [[POT]] and long [[SMN]]. Oh, let’s not forget my burgeoning [[DCR]] position.

See, I expected Mother Market would throw me a screw-ball, via gapping up financials at quarter end. So, I planned ahead.

As you know, right now, my largest position is [[SMN]]. No, I am not lucky or clever or even “at the right place at the right time.” I am simply much smarter than you.

The bull case dictates all commodity prices depreciate, while the dollar climbs.

Naturally, the recent strength in the dollar hurts my gold position. But, that’s okay. I’m willing to sacrifice one position, in order to inflate another.

So, in case you are wondering what to do next, do nothing. Instead, wait until tomorrow, when the windows are no longer being dressed, in order to properly evaluate where your money should be allocated.

I’ll give you a hint: short [[LEH]] above $40.

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Fly Sell: MON

I sold short 5,000 [[MON]] @ $114.

Disclaimer: If you sell short MON because of this post, you will fall victim to an egregious April Fools Day trick. And, you may lose money.

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Ignore Today’s Tape

It’s the last day of the quarter. As a result, I will be very busy. Therefore, understand, “The Fly” has very little time for small people from the internets.

A few things, before I rant about the market:

iBC welcomes Adam, from Adam’s Options. Unfortunately, Adam is not leaving his blog to write for iBankcoin. However, he will provide his witty commentary on a regular basis. God willing, he will bless us with his Dykstra/Cramer “analysis”—which is always a a lot of fun.

Also, today is Dpeezy’s final day blogging here, as “King of the Peanut Gallery.” Naturally, he can always try to reclaim his throne, via beating out everyone in the PG during April.

As of now, it looks like Alphadawg will succeed Dpeezy.

As for the markets:

I covered a significant amount of my [[LEH]] short, near the lows of the day. In short, I believe the stock is due for a respite.

During pre-market trading, most of the “ag plays” were lower. However, unbeknownst to me, they are all shooting higher now, led by the murderous bastards at [[MON]] and [[POT]].

Hmm, I wonder if it has anything to do with end of quarter window dressing?

Basically, you need to ignore today’s tape. It’s bullshit. Money managers, due to window dressing, will execute all sorts of retarded, counter-intuitive trades. Stick to your guns and reload them whenever possible.

That means, if you’re heavily short: take profits asshole. For the quarter, the market will end lower, to the tune of about 9.5%. Annualized, the market is on pace to book a 30%+ loss for the year.

Is that possible?


Is it likely?


However, I think it’s fair to say, we will not enjoy the spectacular 2nd half recovery that everyone south of the N. Pole believes is possible. Should the economy continue to struggle, going into the latter months of the summer, expect stocks to take a definitive drop this fall. A traditional October blood bath, if you will.

Prepare for that accordingly.

Right now, my game plan is to calmly observe the low IQ money managers perform their fuckery (buying ag stocks), while aggressively shorting the fucking “ag plays” with the fury and courage of an over-sized mountain lion— inside a California penitentiary for “white collar criminals.”

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Fly Buy: LEH

I covered some of my [[LEH]] short, buying 10,000 shares @ $36.03.

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It’s official, the ungodly forces within iBC have “de-oranged” the site. And, as you might notice, the site looks somewhat normal/professional—compared to the cartoonish bullshit I had going on prior.

Much praise and thanks to iBankcoin’s webmaster: Jeremy.

UPDATE: One cool new feature, a la Jeremy, all non- Fly articles will be sequenced chronologically.

UPDATE: New iBC commerical

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1fiop4wsjc&eurl=http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/ 450 300]

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