Fixed on the Trends

The banks are reporting bullshit numbers. Ignore what the fucked faces on the teevee are saying. The numbers out of GS, C, JPM and WFC suggest businesses under duress due to BASEL III. ROE’s are fucked up and cash is not being utilized with any efficiency. Bank stocks are off limits to me— not because of risk, but lack of reward.

Tech has been a fucking mine field. Look at the share performance of INTC over the past quarter. Unless you have some sort of perverted passion for technology, it’s hard to feel good about tech investments.

For me, the basic material sector is pure, without trickery. It’s a straight forward proposition, minus all of the asinine earnings malarkey (extra Biden). If growth accelerates or central banks print money, basic materials will do well. Additionally, homebuilders have extreme momentum. Dare I say TOL, USG and ELLI are better investments than AAPL, SWKS and BRCM right now? I do indeud dare, AND MORE.

What is a sustainable long term investment thesis, with regards to human evolution?

Cleanliness.

Health.

Quality Food and Beverage.

The one constant in the evolution of humans is improvements in quality of life, minus the fucking dark ages of course. Generally speaking, people want to be cleaner, live longer and eat/drink better. Stocks like CL, ECL, KMB, UN, REGN, GILD, ALXN, WFM, HAIN, REED and PEP have done well because of the demand for improvements in quality of life. If you had to choose one investable theme for the long term, get your small brains around this and run with it.

To commemorate iBC’s 5th anniversary on 11/12/12, I am going to launch a contest– exclusive for the gents inside of 12631. During the month of March, PPT members enjoy exclusivity to the March Madness contest and $1,000 purse. From 11/12/12 to the end of the year, GAMES WILL BEGIN.

As of right now, I am 90% set on having players paired in teams of 2, with each player choosing one stock to be long or short for the duration. The percent gain/loss will be averaged over 2 players, with no eliminations along the way. That means the contest isn’t over until the very last day.

The purse (no homo) will be $2k, divided by two. Being that the 12631 member base is only in the hundreds, coupled with the fact that participation rate will likely be below 75%, the odds of winning a prize are fairly good–all things considered.

If you have any other ideas for sport and games, be sure to leave them on this thread. This will be your only chance to offer advice, for the remainder of your lives.

NOTE: In order to become a 12631 member, one must first belong to the club at The PPT.

I will not boast today, despite gaining 1.9% for the day. Instead, I will reserve myself and exercise a bit discretion, setting a good example for all of my fellow financial bloggers out there. It’s important to time one’s boasts with sublime precision, otherwise they’ll fall by the wayside (whatever the fuck that term means).

My gains were led by ANR and DDD. Funny shit, I am now UP on DDD, after absorbing a rather heinously expeditious 12% loss. JIVE and NAK were my only losers. I am at a loss for words that can aptly describe the sheer hatred and violent thoughts that I harbor for that company.

Coal is the only place to be right now. It’s trading with the Presidential elections. I suspect it will trade up again tomorrow, ahead of the debate, then sell off on Wednesday. I find myself +28% on my ANR position, greedily looking for more.

This chart is making the rounds today.

Back in the early days of QE2, the Zerohedge crowd doubted the fervor and ferocity of The Bearded Clam, up until the point when he swallowed the bears whole. Inevitably, this round of QE ends like the others, with equities +30% to the upside. By that time, myself and all of you who follow iBankCoin will be rich as fuck– spending money effortlessly on extravagant garments, eating extinct reptiles for dinner–things of that nature.

This website will be auctioned off, as a “piece of art” one of one, at Sotheby’s–netting me billions of dollars, all to be donated to charities for the rich and (power) hungry.

During this round of QE, the biggest winners will be the last year’s biggest losers. Coal names will lead the way higher, led by degeneracy in the shares of JRCC, CLF, ANR and ACI. Men will quit their desk jobs at GOOG to mine for coal in Appalachia.

Times are a changing. Are you prepared for it?

Put aside the market and look at the bigger picture. Greek, Portuguese, Spanish and Italian yields are now below crisis/bailout levels. Effectively, the impotent Europeans have cut the dicks off the bond bears, leaving everyone without penis. Stocks are within striking range of new highs and down days no longer include rumors of total and complete systemic melt downs.

All too often I see people in my industry tether personal happiness with the market. They judge themselves by the value of their accounts or the size of their checks. When things are bad, they’re depressed. When times are good, they’re arrogant pricks, but happy. I’ve seen many good people lose themselves in the market, turning it into a gambling habit instead of an avocation or occupation.

If you were just interested in making enough interest from your accounts to cover expenses, you’d behave differently, wouldn’t you? If you had $1m in stocks and only required $100k per annum in free cash flow for expenses, your investment theme or structure should reflect that, no? As a manager of other people’s money, I tend to be very conservative with my personal money, sans my aggressive trading account. After all, my livelihood is already linked to the success/failures of my clients. To take the revenue generated from that business and toss it into stocks would be juvenile, unnecessarily leveraging myself to the superfluities of a manipulated stock market. A few years back I made a phenomenal amount of money and an outrageous percentage gain (+900%) gambling in my personal/aggressive account–with the help of leverage and derivatives. The very next year the account was nearly cut in half, simply conforming to the laws of averages. It became a distraction for me, so I closed out the account and bought a house with the proceeds.

If you are down and out because of the market, cheer the fuck up; it’s only money. I say this with great experience, having been raised without money, made a fortune, lost a fortune and made it back again. Life is filled with possibilities. So many times I’ve felt a sense of doom, stemming from failures in the market. Things have a way of working out, providing one is willing to keep fighting, mind you.

There is a reason why I say “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing badly. I never quit or lose confidence in my abilities to make money; hence, the prophecies of The Fly continue to reveal timeless truths to the masses of the internets and others who happen to cross my path.

Fuck Sprint and the Japanese horse it rode in on. Once again the market is addled by milquetoast pussies, selling into rallies because that’s what milquetoast pussies do. What am I supposed to do, sit here and watch everything drop, tick by tick, because I have a bullish disposition?

Futures are higher. But it’s child’s play, frankly. There isn’t much to be excited over, particularly when coming off of a -3% drubbing on Friday. My world, for lack of a better word, is crumbling around me–all thanks and praise to the fucktards who are selling my stocks.

Back to basics: look for momentum and follow it. When the momentum swings the other way, adjust by taking losses and wait for the mean reversion Gods to step in, taking you higher once again. I didn’t take profits on Thursday and I should have. In fairness to my cause, I could not have predicted OSG, JIVE and ANR catastrophes were set to occur the very next day. Nevertheless, they did and I now find myself with my dick in my hand (no Gyp Rosetti) and nothing to show for it.

I am formulating a new thesis, one that will be revealed over the next week or two. After my refinery thesis, I’ve been drifting in the wind–a feeling that is not desired by “The Fly.”

Looking over some screen, in search for value, the billion dollar question came to mind.

Are these value traps or bargains?

What do you think?

This psychopath wants to create a sonic boom with his face.

Regrettably, I was informed today that one of the crew, iBC contributor, distinguished gentleman of both PPT and 12631, passed away recently. His twitter handle was @dffapa– but his real name was Matt.

I don’t know how he died. All I know is that he was one of us, regular contributor to the stream of consciousness that is one of the most important and valued things in my life. His last comment to me was in early August, a sharp chastising for going long–deservedly so. Perhaps I should’ve listened to him. He was definitely a really sharp dude and good trader.

However, I will have you know that I did once have the honour and privilege of devouring his liver whole in a stock named FOSL. We had a brief competition inside of PPT with it, which carried over onto iBC. It was in good humour, unlike the catastrophe of my very own liver being eaten today in a ship stock named OSG.

At any rate, here is the full archive of Matt’s comments on my blog. Rest in peace, friend.

(Matt’s first comment on Fly blog)

Here are some of his recent comments inside PPT.

Heartfelt condolences go out to his friends and family.

I am looking for reasons to sell OSG, frustrated by the seemingly endless decline in the stock. I went from +10% to -25% inside of 1 week. The stock is getting drilled today, yet there is no news or industry specific clues as to why it’s getting hit. At this point I can only guess there is a big seller. More often than not, this type of drop precedes some fucked up news. I got caught entirely flat footed by this drop, numbed by my fixation with coal.

I have three big positions getting BALBOA’d today, pressing me into a -2.6% drop. Most of yesterday’s gains have been lost and the Dow is up. This is a real fucking mess for me.

On the plus side is ESRX, PEP and DDD–everything else is shit. Luckily I have 20% cash and can use it to average down. But I’m not about to do that when the fucking dow is barely down for the day. I sense a swift and catastrophic correction is in order, for me specifically. Just yesterday I was feeling my oats, long the other black gold, elated with the prospects of maiming short sellers. One day removed from all of that hubris, I’m next on line to have my genitals chopped off.

Fuck me.