18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,856 Blog Posts

The Mother of all Short Squeezes

We are living in historic times. I’ve been in the market for a long time. I can tell you, without pause, I have never seen a short squeeze like the one taking place in the banks right now.

Banks that were teetering on bankruptcy last week are now ripping higher, to mind numbing levels.

Listen to me, very closely: do not chase the banks here.

I was very tempted to go long [[STI]] and [[UMPQ]] for a trade too; but it’s too risky. Don’t kick yourself for missing an opportunity, others will come.

The first error was missing the rally. The fast track to the poorhouse is when you exacerbate the first error by chasing stocks, near the end of their run, effectively missing the bottom and marking the top.

Be patient and wait for your trade.

In other news, I am happy to be done with [[RIG]] and all of my fucking bank shorts. What a nightmare.

At the present, I have a clean head and will be allocating capital soon.

Despite the new bull market we are in, I still think the next best trade is to sell short. The exuberance is high and the supply of cocaine to money managers is prolific.

They look like shit, but, stepping into [[SRS]], [[FXP]] and [[SKF]] represent fairly low risk/high reward trades now, in my opinion. In addition, with commodity weakness, there is upside to both [[VSE]] and [[CLNE]].

In short, the big money in the banks has been made. Don’t be a fucking jackass and buy here, only to regret it two days from now. Look elsewhere for buying opportunities.

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Traffic Magic

I know other bloggers have discussed the important matter of “traffic magic.”

Let me explain. When people from the internet (you) scurry around, panicked, over the markets, the Godly folks at iBC enjoy “big dicked” traffic. Well, my traffic has increased for 2 straight years, but that’s neither here nor there.

If you look at the recent spike in traffic, demonstrated in the pic below, that was the bottom. As a matter of fact, every time the market “bottomed,” our traffic spiked to new daily highs.

I conclude, as always: when the fear factor is at its peak, morons who surf the web come check out my site in droves. This, more than anything else, is the #1 factor in determining market bottoms, apparently so.

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Shall We Chase Banks?

Okay, the pain and agony of loosing [sic] absurd amounts of coin in [[VLY]], [[WABC]] and [[HDB]] shorts is wearing off. I will be doing research for the next 20 hours straight, with little need or desire for food or sleep. In other words, while you jackoff crying a river in your bullshit jacuzzi, “The Fly” will be readying his counterattack, in order to “resack” lost coin.

Aside from [[CLNE]], I ponder whether to pressure bank shorts into the same fate I found myself today: poor house, or go eat another hot dog.

There are a number of synergies that need to be exposed, in order to evaluate what banks can be bought, or chased here. For example, there are a number of banks with low price to book ratios, compared to their peers, that will be flagged and bought by asshole dip buyers.

Layering on top of that data, and taken into consideration, are fpe ratios and percentage of shares sold short.

Keep in mind, the following names are potential trades, not suitable for long term investment. I still fucking hate the banks.

Here is my short list of potential long trades:

[[UMPQ]], [[WBS]], [[PHH]], [[SNV]], [[ZION]], [[EWBC]], [[HAFC]], [[CMA]], [[WB]], [[STI]], [[SOV]]and [[MI]].

As of now, if a gun were put to my head and a pointed piece of metal was put in the chamber, I’d say: “go long STI, with impunity, based upon egregious valuation.”

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I bit the bullet, despite my visions of death, mayhem and spiraling markets.

I reached my pain threshold and decided, “no mas.” A regular surrender monkey, if you will.

The problem, there are too many short sellers. Plus anyway, I’m over here bleeding out like some sort of fucktard, while shit is ripping.

Today’s moves include:

100% cover of all bank shorts, with exception to [[SKF]] position.

100% sale of [[RIG]] positions, mainly to rebuild capital.

And, finally, first serious entry into [[CLNE]].

Should the slide in natty be sustained, CLNE will continue to rip higher. I like the name short and long term.

Finally, it’s worth noting, I took staggering losses today, thanks to my hard head and dumbass bank shorts. It’s a lesson learned in hell, while stewing myself in volcano soup.

In order to recover from such asshattery, it’s back to the drawing table, one fucktard at a time.

Off to eat a hot dog and glass of murky tap water.

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Fly Buy: CLNE

I bought 50,000 [[CLNE]] @ $13.85.

Disclaimer: Don’t bother.

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Time to Rebalance

Fuck this. I am raising cash here, due to my money losing positions. As a result, I will eat small and large losses. However, the bigger picture is to preserve gains and get a clean/unbiased look at the market.

I will hold my inverse etf’s, mainly because they are small positions. However, I have decided to ‘clean slate’ on a variety of long and shorts, in order to stop the bleeding and regain my footing.

More on this later.

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Today’s Leaders are Tomorrow’s Losers

Today’s winners on the Dow include:

[[GM]], [[JPM]], [[WMT]] and [[HD]], while [[AXP]], [[MRK]] and [[VZ]] lag.

In the Nasdaq, the lion share of the gains can be attributed to strength in the following:

[[SBUX]], [[LAMR]], [[PCAR]], [[GRMN]] and [[EBAY]], while [[AAPL]], [[QCOM]], [[YHOO]], [[BIDU]] and [[ADBE]] lag.

In addition, financial related names are catapulting higher, as amateur shorts get squeezed and coked out money managers average down. My guess, the market will remain range bound, with wild swings between 10,750-11,650, until September.

If you are going to keep skin in the game, remember to be hedged.

Top pick: long [[FXP]]

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Fuck You, You’re Dead

My readers aren’t half bad. Most of you are simple folk, who enjoy lunch breaks and a nice ham sandwich, every once in awhile. It’s the other assholes on the internet and television that bother “The Fly.”

If you think about it, it’s sort of retarded, getting mad at other people who voice opinions. However, just know, “The Fly” is all about authoritarian rule and labor intensive boot camps for those who go against him.

Case in point: CNBC

This network will eventually kill me, via cardiac arrest or stroke. It makes no sense to watch them, since they offer zero value. However, since they are apt and keen on spreading market moving rumors (Gas Man, Faber, Cramer), I am forced to watch them. Forced, mind you.

At the end of the day, I wish none of these people fortune.

In other news, the market is teetering here. Mr. Mortgage nailed that [[AGO]] short. I complimented him for it and his reply was very “robot-esque,” as always. He wishes death to both [[HRB]] and [[NLY]]. I believe he wanted me to pass that message along, sort of like some twisted/demented chain letter.

I am taking the liberty to short more [[HDB]], UP AT THESE LEVELS. This stock is really starting to piss me off. At first, the sudden rise was humorous. I even called friends and family to take a gander at it; so we could laugh together as it climbed. But this is just ridiculous. It’s starting to cost me money.

I just sold out of my [[VLO]] trade. Fuck that noise. I’d rather buy more [[RIG]].

In short, expect this rally to die with a whimper soon. The fundamentals do not support higher equity prices. And, just because gasoline is at the bargain discount price of $4.30 per gallon, that doesn’t make poor people shop at [[M]].

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