Which way does the market move next? We have our bounce today, with NASDAQs higher by 200. All of the cool stocks are participating, as well as the low beta varietal. We have vertical movements in cryptos and all of the retards who were panicked last week are out and about today with their finest outerwear, proclaiming the bull to be back.
The $SMH, which is my tell, is higher by 2.16%. I’d be arrogant and condescending if I told you exactly what would happen tomorrow, forecasting one way or another. But I want to remind you that recency bias is a flaw when thinking about the bigger picture and that large frame of work is harangued by geopolitical issues, and high interest rates. The $SMH is down 9.5% for April and I want you to place yourselves into the shoes of those tricked and fooled, down 9.5% in $SMH after buying the top. Those folks are now hoping and praying about this rally to continue tomorrow. There is zero chance they’ll sell today, because of hope. If that hope is shattered tomorrow, the market will be routed.
This is not a prediction, just a scenario that can play out based off previous experiences.
Should be rally tomorrow, a short squeeze might ensue, as all of the fence sitters dive back in.
At the present, I am up just 9bps and in 100% cash. I had losses of 40bps at the open and recovered those and decided to stop aside into the final hour. I am contemplating barreling into risk or low beta for tomorrow and will try to make up my mind over the next 30 mins.
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French troops just surrendered to Ukraine today …..
Though Russia has not surrendered yet, we are very confident we will never be on speaking terms again, so we shall confiscate their soveriegn wealth stored abroad.
Things are either getting desperate or stupider, yet again…