NASDAQ futures are down about -55 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price first worked lower overnight, trading down to last Friday’s midpoint, catching a little bounce, then further down, right about exactly to the 68% retrace level of the big Friday afternoon rally. Since then price rallied about +150 then faded down about -40. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we had conviction buying Monday. Seller control Tuesday through Thursday morning. Then a sharp excess low formed Thursday, ultimately leading to a rally into the weekend which was accentuated by a late Friday ramp. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a slight gap down in range. Buyers quickly resolved the gap during an open drive up and price went into a range extension up before New York lunch. Then the action became choppy, chopping all over the midpoint and eventually making a new high of day before a hard sell pressed to a new low of day and into a neutral print. Those sellers never took out overnight low. Instead just before 3pm a responsive buyers stepped in and what followed was a strong ramp that eventually made a new daily high and close at it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work a gap fill up to 12,959 then continue higher, up through overnight high 12,978. Look for sellers up at 13,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to tag the 03/23 naked VPOC up at 13,092 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 12,807.50 on their way to tagging 12,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final Friday of March (the last Friday in Q1) with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price initially worked higher overnight, probing up beyond the Wednesday high around 1am New York and sustaining these prices until about 3:30am when sellers knocked price back down into the nearby balance. Then around 6:30am sellers became initiative and formed a steady down rotation that sent price below the Thursday midpoint. At 8:30am personal income and outlays all came out in-line with expectations and then international trade in goods did the same. As we approach cash open price is hovering about +20 above the Thursday mid.

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down below the Wednesday range. Buyers drove higher into the opening bell quickly resolving the overnight gap. Then about +30 points into Wednesday range sellers stepped in and rejected price out of the range. This all happened within the first 45 minutes of trade and soonafter we pressed range extension down. Sellers managed to trade down below last week’s low before a responsive bid was discovered near the lows of March 9th. From about 11:30am to 1:30 buyers managed to regain the daily midpoint. Sellers chopped down through it in the early afternoon before we ultimately ramped higher into the close. Closing near session high but never pushing neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,793. From here buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 12,881. Look for sellers up at 12,900 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 12,676 and test below Thursday low 12,609.75. Buyers are just below at 12,600 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers blow through 12,600 on their way to tagging 12,500. Stretch target 12,479.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday down a quick -60 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lows of Wednesday’s range until about 7:45am when buyers stepped in and pressured the tape lower. At 8:30am GDP data came out in-line with expectations and jobless claims data slightly better than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering down near last week’s lows.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up in range that sellers drove down into at the open. Said selling erased Monday’s conviction buying and probed down into the Friday-to-Monday gap a bit before discovering a strong responsive bid. That bid sent price higher in a campaign that successfully recovered the mid and much of the territory lost during the early sale. It could not, however, make new session high. Instead sellers reclaimed the mid and after chopping along the bottom-side of mid for about an hour began a campaign to go range extension down. Range extension down happened around 1:15pm then after a pull back sellers became initiative and drove lower into the close, eventually closing on session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers reclaim Wednesday low 12,787.25 and work a gap fill up to 12,801.25. Buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 12,859.50. Look for sellers up at 12,875 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to Wednesday low 12,787.25. Sellers reject a move back into Wednesday’s range and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower sets up a liquidation down to 12,600. Stretch targets are 12,500, 12,479.75 then 12,400.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves (note how VPOCs are still concentrated right along the pre-FOMC levels):

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday up a quick +90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the bottom-side of Tuesday’s midpoint until about 4:20am New York when buyers initiated a rotation higher. Said buyer sent price up through Tuesday mid but not beyond the Tuesday high. As we approach cash open price is hovering about +15 points above the Tuesday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have more testimony from Fed Powell and Treasury Yellen at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year note auction at 11:30am followed by a 1pm note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap up inside range. Sellers quickly resolved the open gap after an open two way auction. Sellers could not take the conviction buying zone printed Monday however. Instead a weak double low formed before we set off to probe beyond the Monday high. This probe higher put us into a range extension up but was quickly faded back to the mid. After several hours chopping the mid sellers pressed to a new low of day late in the session and closed down on it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,029. Look for buyers down at 13,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 13,145.25 on their way to closing the FOMC gap up at 13,189.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 13,272.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second trading day of the week with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the top half of Monday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about halfway between the Monday high and the mid.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am, a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, congressional hearings from Fed Powell and Treasury Yellen at 12pm, then a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up and drive higher, driving up to 13,000 then briefly pausing before continue to trend back up into the reaction spike we saw last Wednesday after the FOMC announcement. Buyers couldn’t quite manage to resolve the gap that we left behind last Wednesday. Instead price slowly rotated lower during late-afternoon trade, eventually ending the day about 30 points above the mid.

Of note: Since the FOMC announcement last week no real price discovery has happened. First we spiked higher and found our top bracket, then lower through Friday to find our bottom bracket. It seems the market is waiting for more information before leaving this balance. Perhaps earnings from major NASDAQ component Adobe, due out after-the-bell could be the catalyst.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up above overnight high 13,105.25 and continue higher, taking out overnight high 13,157. This sets up a run to close that Wednesday gap up at 13,189 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,078 then continue lower, tagging 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 13,270.25 before two way traded ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, first by taking out the Friday high around 10pm New York, then after several hours of balance along the Friday high by continuing higher. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell set to speak at 9am, existing home sales at 10am and then 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy. Buyers drove higher through Tuesday. Wednesday markets gapped down then marked time until The FOMC announcement then shot higher. Thursday through Friday morning saw sellers erasing the Fed move. Then buyers resumed control into the weekend with a mellow rotation higher. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with sellers making an early try down below Thursday low. This selling was reversed before the first hour was complete and a sharp excess low had formed. From then on it was buyers in control. Buyers reclaimed the mid then defended a check back to it, ultimately leading to a tight balance along the daily high and into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go up to 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 13,093.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,829.75. Look for buyers down at 12,800 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are heading into monthly option expiration day gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the Thursday low until about 2am New York when sellers made an attempt down and away. This revealed a strong responsive bid and since then price has rallied about +180 off the lows. As we approach cash open price is hovering about -50 points below the Thursday midpoint.

There are no economic events scheduled for today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down reversal of the Wednesday afternoon Fed driven rally. Price held a tight range for the first few hours of the day while taking out the Thursday low early on. Then after many chops across the daily midpoint sellers began a campaign lower around 2:30pm and continued to sell right into the bell—action which eventually took out last Friday’s low. Of note, the daily VPOC never shifted down to the low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,816.25. Look for buyers down at 12,800 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 12,898.25 setting up a tag of 12,927 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balancing along the upper quadrant of Wednesday range overnight until about 3:30am New York. From then onward it has been all selling, with sellers effectively erasing the entire rally that formed after the FOMC annoucement and Powell press conference, a press conference that is being touted as Powell’s best. The selling campaign worked price down into the lower quadrant of Wednesday’s range. Then at 8:30am jobless claims data came out worse than expected and Philadelphia Fed data much better than expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down below Tuesday range. After an open auction outside range buyers worked higher but were rejected from re-entering the Tuesday range. Instead price fell back to the mid and eventually down through it. Sellers worked back down near the daily low but were unable to break down through it. Instead price was choppy down below the mid for the hours leading into the Fed announcement. Then price shot higher, reclaiming the mid and going range extension up within one minute of the data. There was a bit of back-and-forth along the high before a strong rally sent price up through most of the Tuesday range. Buyers eventually tagged the Tuesday VPOC before falling off the high a bit into the close. Of note, value never shifted higher yesterday afternoon. Instead it remains where it was before the Fed announcement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and tag the Wednesday VPOC 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a gap fill up to 13,189 and continue higher, up through overnight high 13,267. Look for sellers up at 13,300 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, tagging 12,852 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday up a quick +60 after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price initially drove higher overnight, pressing up beyond last week’s high until about 3:33am. Since then we have been in balance along last week’s high. At 8:30am retail sales data came out well below expectations. Price has not shown much reaction to the data and as we approach cash open price is hovering above last week’s high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am, business inventories and housing market index at 10am and a 20-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the down gap during an open two-way auction in range and after a small try lower buyers drove up beyond last Friday’s high. Price was choppy for the next several hours, walking all over the midpoint and eventually pressing a brief range extension down around 11:35am New York. This was met with a strong responsive buy and by a bit after 12pm buyers had reclaimed the mid and by 2:20pm we were into a new high of day and a neutral print. The rest of the day was all buying, with the steady campaign effectively closing the gap left behind last Thursday. We ended near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging 12,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers squeeze up to 13,253.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,073.75. Look for buyers down at 13,000 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was choppy overnight, trading up beyond the Friday high for a bit, up to about the Thursday midpoint, before chopping back down into the Friday range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about 10 points below the Friday high.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we saw buyers in control all week long everywhere except the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ saw a hard sell Monday then sort of chopped higher for the rest of the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down below the Thursday range. After an open two-way auction outside range buyers made a try back up into the Thursday range. Sellers rejected the move, sending price down through the opening swing and into an early range extension down. This move also served to close the open gap left behind Wednesday. From then on it was buyers in control. First they reclaimed the mid then the sprung up from it, pressing into a neutral print. Buyers defended a check back to the mid and eventually pressed neutral. The buying managed to reclaim the Thursday range but not really explore it much. We closed on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,925.75. From here buyers continue higher, tagging 13,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to and close the Thursday gap 13,051.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 12,862.50 setting up a run down to 12,700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »