Busy week ahead. Research is updated and I must be brief as there are painters here and I like to work alongside other folks working. Sitting here, doing research, while others toil is not something I feel comfortable with. If a comrade has taken up arms and is toiling than I feel the duty to toil alongside them in solidarity.

But there are a few key things to be aware of heading into next week. The first option expiration of the third quarter is sort of sneaking up quickly on us, what with the holiday and the way the month started on a Thursday. I could see the big players leveraging their resources to put pressure on short-sellers, via a squeeze, and then eventually just chopping back to unchanged by week’s end.

We have Powell set to speak Wednesday and Thursday. His words may serve to pivot the markets.

Major banks are set to report earnings, with the bulk of earnings due out Wednesday morning.

All these factors combined, plus the objective research presented below, leads me to forecast a sideways drift for the first part of the week and then a pivot either higher or lower mid-week.

As always, we’ll take it one day at a time, via the morning reports, unless some unforeseen toiling takes me off the desk.

Okay for now, cheers and trade’em well in the week ahead.

Raul Santos, July 11th 2021

And now the 346th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/12/21 – 07/16/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.65, medium bull.  Sideways drift until bank earnings due out Wednesday morning along with Powell speak pivots the markets into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy drift higher during holiday-shortened week. Russell 2000 lagged behind all week but ramped strong into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Leadership in Utilities gives rise to caution for the bulls. However it was closely flanked by key Tech and Discretionary sectors. Energy continues to trade independently.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed negatively on the week with the only industry groups managing to populate the positive side of the ledger being REITS, suggesting investors are growing cautious. The negative side of the ledger is not showing any major industry groups.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

6-month algo triggered on the 7^th, did you go long?

Last week my note was about focusing on executing when the 6-month algo flags oversold, which has been one of the more reliable indicators coming out of Stocklabs lately. Well a few short days later on Wednesday it fired out a signal. I was late but managed to put a TQQQ position on Friday morning.

Will it be a winning trade? We don’t know. But our job is to focus on being above-average at executing the signals generated by our research. Trust the process.

I saw some posters in the Pelican Room going short Friday afternoon. Maybe they have their own system or set of rules. Again, we don’t know. But the most effective way to gain value from Stocklabs is to consistently execute the signals generated by the mother algo.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift until bank earnings due out Wednesday morning along with Powell speak pivots the markets into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Mirror images

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports look more-and-more like they are in a discovery down phase. They do remain on the low-end of a well-established range and could snap higher. We are coming into the week with this key contextual index at the low-end of its pivot region.

See below:

Conversely semiconductors might be going into discovery up. They also might be setting up for a traverse back down through their well-established range. This index is like a mirror image of the Transports. Interesting heading into the first OPEX of the third quarter.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme rose colored sunglasses bullish for a third week after being neutral three weeks back after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for three consecutive weeks after being neutral for the two weeks prior to that after being e[RCS] bullish nine weeks back and RCS bearish ten weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster nineteen weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm drift perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold (6-month)

On Wednesday, July 7th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the six month algo. This bullish cycle runs through July 21^st end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When I told my father I was going to be an actor, he said, “Fine, but study welding just in case.”” – Robin Williams

Trade simple, diversify your income

 

Comments »

Happy Fourth of July lads. As much of a shitposter as I can be I want you to know I do love this country and so does Elder Raul. He came here when he was twelve with the suit on his back to live with his older sister and he hustled his butt off and now he takes it easy on some remote patch of sand up north in the woods. My clan has accumulated more resources in our 50 years in this country than many americans have done in 100s of years. This would not be possible in any other country and I just want to say thanks.

I have been working so dang good hard since February and at times it has made me a real surly some-bitch. Thank you for bearing with me in this challenging times.

A few more weeks of moving rocks and sanding walls and it looks like I will be able to breathe again. Go back to swimming and pumping iron and taking lots of naps. Again. This country is great.

Once a man liberates himself from the many traps set up by insurance companies, mortgage companies, employers, debt and other webs of insanity spun up by corporate goons this country is a real gem. Vagabonding around and accumulating wealth and resources and in-general doing whatever the heck you want….as long as you don’t want to trade leverage in crypto.

Nope can’t do that…

One of the greatest american pastimes is finding ways to break its laws. Tom Brady managed to buy FTT tokens which speaks volumes to how wonderful america is.

So have an appled pie. Blow off some explosives and gobble down lots of fire roasted animal flesh. Warsh it all down with some cheap swill from Anhisur bush and listen to some Lana Del Rey.

Happy fourth from your dear pal RAUL.

Raul Santos, July 4th 2021

And now the 345th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/05/21 – 07/09/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.63, medium bull*.  Strong rally throughout holiday-shortened week. Watch for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to accelerate price action.

U.S. markets will be closed Monday, July 5^th in observation of Independence Day

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong buyers early Monday squeezed prices higher, then we drifted for much of the week before accenting with a rally Friday. All week the Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech leading the way. Flanked by discretionary and Health care.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed slightly bearish and the median return was negative on the week. This speaks to the nature of last week’s rally, with most of the upward action being contained to the best-of-the-best stocks like Apple and Alphabet.

It turns out volume delta is a useless data point for the Weekly Strategy Session. It is comparing the one day reading (in our analysis always Friday) with the average of the last 30 days. This is why it is pinned negative on this report, because Friday is lower volume than all the other days of the week.

I have requested a volume delta which compares the weekly volume to the average of the last 30 weeks. That would likely tell a story over time that would make our understanding of money flows much more valuable and actionable. Whether that data is available, we don’t know.

I looked through the entire list of data points available on the industries page and none of them are able to add value to the Weekly Strategy Session.

That said, partitioning the 1-week return the way we do still provides valuable insight. Whether we gain more relevant data is up to the Stocklabs development team.

Money flows are slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Focus on executing the 6-month oversold signal

The 6-month oversold algo is proving to be a solid indicator to trade from. Consistent execution of this algo during 2021 has generated a solid return. It has been one of the only signals we’re seeing. I will be adding it to my toolkit going forward.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Strong rally throughout holiday-shortened week. Watch for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to accelerate price action.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Pivotal levels

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports might lose the low-end of range. More likely we see buyers rally up off of range lows.

See below:

Semiconductors are flagging along the top-end of range. This could result in a fresh leg of discovery up. This chart will be on one of my screens all week and providing key context to the overall market.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme rose colored sunglasses bullish for a second week after being neutral two weeks back after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for three consecutive weeks after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish eight weeks back and RCS bearish nine weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster eighteen weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm drift perhaps with a slight upward bias USUALLY but when the reading goes over +1 we expect a bit more strength/rally.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold (6-month)

On Thursday, June 17^th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the six month algo. This bullish cycle runs through July 1^st end of day. Here is the final performance of each major index.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“You might as well like yourself. Think about all the time you’re going to have to spend with you.” – Jerry Lewis

Trade simple, enjoy your duty

Comments »

First off Happy Father’s Day lads. Father’s day is less important than Mother’s Day and if you deny this statement then you’re heading down a slippery path to being cuckold by Humble Raul. Dad’s don’t need to be celebrated. Is everyone okay? GREAT. Leave me be. I am content. Mother’s need frills. A sense of being special. We create that magic for them so everyone can be okay and we can be left alone.

Moving on. Quick programming note.

I wish I could be more active but there is a generational land grab opportunity happening in the birthplace of the assembly line. I have put aside my fitness and intellectual work to dedicate my powers to accumulating as much of this rare earth as possible. It was locked up for years-and-years after the heckin’ chinese and australians swooped in during The Great Recession and picked up Detroit lots by the dozen only to let them rot, and blight.  The city set up a land bank and suddenly nothing was available. But all the sudden it is becoming available again and the patient hoop jumper can squire urban acreage for a real nice rate.

This humble hoop jumper then has to develop the land enough to satisfy the city to hand over the deed and I am doing all of this in a very boot strapped manner because I have an immigrant mentality.

Americans will never understand what it is like to live on an island or worse, Europe, where every inch of earth has been owned for a thousand years. Immigrants come to america and they realize all this land is available and they set out to take it and make it productive.

That said I miss trading these futures dearly. Active trade moved to the September contract on Friday and I am feeling the urge to sit back down and dial back into the tape. It will not happen this week.

When I do dial back in I will do my best to be present in the Pelican Room more. I have a hard time with trading chat rooms because my a.d.d. But I will pop in after I hustle the opening bell when I can.

NOW MOVING ON TO CURRENT MARKETS.

Sunday research leads me to believe we will see some follow-thru on last week’s selling. Whether it finds buyers down below or whether I am totally wrong and we rally all week, we don’t know. What I do know is all my toiling has loosened up some capital that I need to deploy in the markets and I need to deploy it before we’re too deep into Q3.

I will not buy more doge.

I will not buy more doge.

I will not buy more doge.

Maybe I will, fuck.

I will not buy more doge.

While the 200k doge I hold in reserve has plummeted in value, the total amount of doge I own has increased thanks to that nice feller Sam allowing me to lend my doge out on his brokerage platform. I am earning doge even now as I type. Crypto is so fucked. It has this way of consuming the speculative mind.

Why the hell would I buy more doge when I could by more TWTR?

We don’t know. But I might.

I will not buy more doge.

I might buy more doge.

Shit man.

I need to dial back into the morning reports. Those keep me centered. And I need to get back in the gym and start my ressitance training back up. I am turning into a wet noodle of sorts. Toiling on the smasher and the shovel all day but my core is turning pudding soft.

That’s the last thing I need with you ruthless fuckers vying for my seat.

For now. Ciao. And remember—June is Raul’s month.

Raul Santos, June 20th 2021

And now the 343rd edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/21/21 – 06/25/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 2.45, medium bear.  Expect continued selling during the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Late Monday rally then selling pressure all week which accelerated Wednesday afternoon after the FOMC announcement. NASDAQ bullish divergent throughout the week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotations away from the equity complex, across the board.

Bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed heavily to the negative side of the ledger.

Volume delta might be broken or just be a strange lagging indicator. It printed a slightly negative reading after being really negative for months.  Median return was about -400 basis points.

bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

No man’s land

Markets are sort of in a strange purgatory for the next few weeks. It is not quite the third quarter but active futures traders have rolled forward to the September contracts.

No major earnings are due out from any important outfits.

The Fed turned a bit hawkish and can only add benign layers of context to it for a while.

It is nearly the summer solstice but not quite. Mercury is in retrograde but who know what that means? It ends Tuesday.

The NASDAQ is still pinned right around where it was back when the White House announced their intention to tweak capital gains tax code.

Contextually there is no clear catalyst for the markets. Focus on semiconductors.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect continued selling during the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Testing range

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are nearing what appears to be the bottom of a well-established range. Will it hold or go into a discovery down phase. This could tell a story next week.

See below:

Semiconductors have been eroding the nearby support level by repeatedly bouncing along it. We could be setting up to traverse down to the low-end of range.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for three consecutive weeks after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish six weeks back and RCS bearish seven weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster sixteen weeks ago.

Being extreme RCS essentially for five weeks in a row is what preceded this selling. Interesting…

And going into next week there is no bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold (6-month)

On Thursday, June 17^th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the six month algo. This bullish cycle runs through July 1^st end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It’s a beautiful day, the sun is shining, I feel good, and no one’s gonna stop me now.” Freddy Mercury

Trade simple, one trade at a time

Comments »

Fellas I had to step away from the markets last week and it looks like I won’t be on my desk much this upcoming week either. A deal I have been putting together since November finally went through. I wasn’t even sure if it would but baby it did.

I bought a quarter of a block down in the city. Nearly an acre. Enough space to build eight multi-family homes.

Housing, as we know, is in short supply.

Anyhow I couldn’t care less if there are enough houses for the consumer, man. I have Mothership, my faithful steed. This land will be developed, at first rapidly to cut down on some of the maintenance, and then slowly.

Perhaps one day I will build a few homes, but not homes as the typical hamburger eating american envisions.  The city is no place for an offensively middle class 3,500 square foot joke house with cheap cladding. They’ll be gritty and utilitarian shelters. Made of steel and cement. Fully equipped to survive the roving bandits.

But for now I am working the land. Establishing the perimeter. I am not being aggressive. Just dominant.

Folks aren’t used to seeing the immigrant hustle up close. Usually we’re relegated to distant fields where we can rage work in peace. I am rage working on a busy corner in the city and it already has people shook.

So I need to make it pretty ASAP because I know they’re gonna send bandits for me eventually and I need to make sure the power of my words is backed by a beautiful show of infrastructural force.

Trade’em well lads. What I love about the stock market is it was here long before us and will be here long after we’re gone. Investing and trading are a few of the last true bastions of lassie fare capitalism. We ought to be more grateful to the French. And the Dutch.

As for the Italians those fuckers are ruthless. Keep a wide space between you and them. If you see some leaned out farmer looking dude with a pony tail all olive skineed and bearded, working the land…say hello or run because that’s humble Raul and he’s thinking of a dozen ways to make to kill you.

Raul Santos, June 13th 2021

Here is 342nd edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy now yes.

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/14/21 – 06/18/21

Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.35, medium bull*.  More sideways chop until Wednesday afternoon. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC announcement/presser to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

*Index Model signaled extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Steady rally in the NASDAQ all week while the other indices marked time. The Dow was bearish divergent.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech strong and discretionary strong. Rallying in the right places.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed bullish for a second week and for a second week not really great industry groups leading the way.

Volume delta remains pinned negative (broken I think) and median return was about +50 basis points.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Slow tape

Despite being a slow tape the opening bells are still setting up nicely. I had to step back from the market last week because I’ve just been too dang good heckin’ busy. It looks like I will not be on my desk much next week either. Which is fine. The market will be here when I get back.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

More sideways chop until Wednesday afternoon. Then look for the third reaction to the FOMC announcement/presser to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Marking time

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports same as last week. Holding range near highs.

The longer we sit in this time-based correction the more bullish it becomes.

See below:

Semiconductors balanced along the highs also. There is nothing bearish about this for now. Time-based corrections are very healthy.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for a third consecutive week after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish five weeks back and RCS bearish six weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster fifteen weeks ago.

e[RCS] calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If I do a good job, people won’t care if I am green or have three heads.” Harvey Milk

Trade simple, trade well

Comments »

Sort of already used up my best thoughts on this earlier entry. Just keep in mind that June is a month where humble RAUL works harder than you. Toils. Toils and takes risk. Aerodynamic. Thin. Lean. Peak male performance. Cock as hard as pig iron. Pony tail out. No cankles.

Hustling.

Maybe less here and more down in the hood we don’t know I just take it one day at a time.

Okay for now here is this week’s research.

Raul Santos, June 6th 2021

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 06/07/21 – 06/11/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.58, medium bull*.  Expect markets to continue holding balance along the highs. Moments of volatility to the upside or downside are likely to fade back to the mean by week’s end.

*Index Model signaled extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Closed Monday for Memorial Day. Gap up into the week is faded. Choppy through Wednesday then some selling pressure Thursday. Strong Friday, sort of drifting back up to weekly highs after the nonfarm payroll data.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech strong, flanked by other sector groups. Energy in its own world.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed bullish but were mostly oil and REIT related. Negative side not really featuring any key industry groups.

Volume delta remains pinned negative (broken I think) and median return was about +75 basis points.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Summer trading

It can be easy to slip into old bad habits during a slow summer tape. Plan every single trade from entry to exit to stop and keep an eye on risk. Stick to the key levels, the key windows of trading activity and be okay with stepping back from trading if you need to refresh the mind.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect markets to continue holding balance along the highs. Moments of volatility to the upside or downside are likely to fade back to the mean by week’s end.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance along the highs can set up another leg up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports holding range like this along the highs is not bearish. Balance and innocent until we make a strong break lower.

Until then we expect balance. The longer we sit in this time-based correction the more bullish it becomes.

See below:

Semiconductors are also balanced. NVIDIA earnings were fantastic and the stock was well received after the report.  There is a clear balance/range here but also in the last two sessions we have set up and pivoted off the bear’s Fibonacci level. Buyers likely to attempt a new leg up but for now the call is balance.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for a second consecutive week after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish four weeks back and RCS bearish five weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster fourteen weeks ago.

e[RCS] calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“All cruelty springs from weakness.” Lucius Annaeus Seneca

Trade simple, stay kind

Comments »

Minimal noise. Raw data gets partitioned and analyzed. Factor in some calendar events.  And a ruthless commitment to brevity. That is what goes into the Executive Summary every Sunday. Last week’s was on point, see below:

Why do I do it? I do it for myself. Owning the research that backs every single decision I make in the speculative markets allows me to avoid unbridled pikerisms like foisting blame onto some billionaire if I blow up my account positioning into shit coin degeneracy.

I need to stay focused. It’s a real sick society. In the age of anxiety I intend to be a beacon on the path to simplicity and pleasure.

Long time readers of the humble Raul blog [hRb] know I’ve been calling for the ’20s to be a period of economic prosperity the likes of which no living human has ever seen. An expansion fueled by the persuit of automation and artificial intelligence. An expansion built on semiconductors and bravery. Grotesque displays of wealth. Traps. Other beacons to different kinds of life…and pleasure? Maybe.

I come from a life of privilege. I’ve had the privilege of being inside the grips of a parochial protestant education as a child, to a collegiate life surrounded by friends with private jets, hell their own airports, yachts — all the trimmings of perceived happiness/pleasure. And daddy-o these have been (for the most part) some of the most miserable folks.

They have the same problems.

Then there are festival freaks. Bless them. Escaping reality en masse and listening to good music. An okay path to nirvana. The duration is short. Not as short as nitros oxide…

…disassociatives, an escape from the human condition. Why do that? Come back with some non-human perspective maybe. We don’t know. Everyone has their kink.

And that’s okay. My kink is extracting as many fiat american dollars from the global financial complex as possible. We’ll do what it takes. Gain citizenship to other countries. Hustle the big waves of New York’s opening bell. Invest in strong leaders.

Said fiat will then be converted into real assets. This is becoming a challenge now too. Those dang Chinese have taken to speculating on physical goods at a ravenous clip. Fuck. This is fine. Said fiat will then be converted into steel and cement and fucking lumber to build massive food operations. Said food will be abundant and provide minerals and vitamins otherwise depleted in the food chain. Said food will be distributed to my people and others for exchange with the intention of converting the food into digital currencies.

And so goes the circle of life. No one’s master. No one’s slave. Except maybe the plants.

It all starts with solid Sunday research. That said. Stick around a bit. A fresh report will be out shortly.

Raul Santos, June 6th 2021

Comments »

Good morning and cheers to the beginning of summer. It amuses me how government and church bogart dates when pagans would pay homage to the old gods in the most hedonistic ways and repackage them as “holidays”. The real reason we celebrate right now is the heckin’ north coming back to life. Trees are re-leafing themselves. Corns poking up. Women are in heat.

It is right around this flamboyant time when I was born. On my due date. At 6am. Ready to live.

I’ve almost always been in a good mood. My whole life. Even now, when my situation has gone a bit mundane, being in the grips of too much work, I find all sorts of little opportunities to savor nature.

This morning, for instance, I awoke at 3am and like a moth to a light bulb made my way over to the loud thumping techno hall. Grabbed a coffee on the way and disco danced for a few hours before returning here to Mothership and preparing this week’s research. I worked most of yesterday and have more toiling ahead of me today, yet time was found for a bit of recreation — wiggled my bones and vibrated the old nervous system.

I suppose I’ll take a nap now. Then an elaborate breakfast before heading back to the coal mine.

Fine for now.

Raul Santos, May 31st 2021

Here is the 340th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

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Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/31/21 – 06/04/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.40, medium bull*.  Choppy sideways drift. Then watch for Powell speak and non-farm payroll data early Friday to provide direction into the weekend.

U.S. markets are closed Monday in observation of Memorial Day.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses (e[RCS]) bullish bias triggered. See Section VI

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong rally Monday then a slow and steady upward drift for the rest of the week. Russell 2000 outperformed suggesting risk tolerance remains elevated.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

About as quality as rotations can be for bulls. Tech strong, energy muted, utilities soft.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed bullish. A few semiconductors in the ledger which is a positive.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about +125 basis points.

Money flows are slightly bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Context

We are heading into the final month of the second quarter. The moon is waning. IndexModel is calling for a calm drift. Transports and semiconductors show balance (see Section IV). No major earnings due out. Economic calendar light. Stocklabs neutral. COVID fear is lessening.

Summer weather hitting the north.

All this adds up to form a contextual vibe of calm markets. Drift. This is of course only the case if we don’t encounter any unexpected meaningful news.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy sideways drift. Then watch for Powell speak and non-farm payroll data early Friday to provide direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Watching this balance play out

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are in this mini balance amid a larger discovery up phase. Neutral/bullish until something changes.

See below:

Semiconductors are balanced. Nvidia earnings sent the key PHLX component to a new record high. We can keep an eye on how the new high is received and deduce it to PHLX behavior, which is a key driver of overall market behavior. Balanced for now.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the final performance of each major indexr:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is back to extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias after being neutral for two weeks consecutive week after being e[RCS] bullish three weeks back and RCS bearish four weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster thirteen weeks ago.

e[RCS] calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If you truly love nature, you will find beauty everywhere.” Vincent van Gogh

Trade simple, trade beautifully

Comments »

It’s feast and famine at the House of Raul (HoR). Has been since I left the mediocre existence of a corporate pleb earning 70,000 fiat american per annum. Now I speculate and toil. Speculate and toil. Toil and toil and speculate waiting for my number to be called.

My number has not been called in weeks resulting in risk management protocol going into place. I have reduced my trading size to one third normal position size until thing settle a bit.

Meanwhile I continue to live in a van between the toiling, eating tins of fish meat.

IndexModel is neutral into month-end. On the note of IndexModel, I’d like to offer props to whomever grabbed that twitter handle when I set it free. Good form.

I’ll be doing today and tomorrow what I always do when my hand goes cold. I clean. Clean and organize and clean some more. Scrub the walls and purge the garage. Do these things and think and prepare for the next big speculation.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, May 23rd 2021

And now the 339th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy

---

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/24/21 – 05/28/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.25, medium bull.  Choppy price action into month-end. Watch for a reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell to put direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy through Tuesday then some late Tuesday selling. Pro gaps down Wednesday that were bid into resulting in an all-day rally. Rally carried into Thursday. Marked time Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Mixed bag. Slight risk aversion with Staples and Utilities performing well. But Tech diverged from broad weakness elsewhere.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed heavily to the positive side of the ledger.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about +250 basis points.

Money flows are bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

K.I.S.S.

Keep your focus on consistently executing the signals generated by the Stocklabs mother algo. Do only this well and it will keep you on a path of consistent profitability. Keep it simple.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy price action into month-end. Watch for a reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell to put direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance at the highs is not bearish

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are maybe in balance. Maybe still discovering higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors are balanced. Nvidia earnings Wednesday after-the-bell could shake this index loose.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a second consecutive week after being e(RCS) bullish two weeks back and RCS bearish three weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster twelve weeks ago.

Neutral means no bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more of it I seem to have.” Coleman Cox

Trade simple, put work into every trade

Comments »

Not in the stock market. Stocklabs is flagging bullish and only the old gods, Janet Yellen or Walmart can do anything to hinder the rally. It is the mayhem of progress I’m referring to as we race to put corn into the ground before the moon goes full. Ten days.

Corn lads, sweet corn and lots of it. I’m working with five different heirloom varieties, one purported to yield tasty sweet corn in 65 days. One ear per stalk, stalks 5-to-7 feet tall. Said corn will be converted into doge as I and others toil to help daddy Elon realize his vision of one currency to rule them all — a joke coin — a hustle — the hustle IS alive.

I work so heckin’ dang good hard you have no idea. Toiling. All the little bones in my wrists and forearms click and wiggle when I sit down and commit to the mouse and keyboard because most of the time they wield shovels and wheeled barrows and hoses and knives and saws — tools — I’m a man not some video game junkie — I jack it with both hands. Work while you can an old man told me.

When I’m an old boomer I need everything done built. Then I can sit around taking psychedelics and meditating and writing stories.

I reckon I’ve got at least 50 good years left in me for speculating, as long as I can keep my brain sharp. As for building, toiling, developing the infrastructure to be a fully independent food producer high up here in the progressive north, I prolly have about 10 years left on this decaying sack of flesh I inhabit.

My bones wiggle and creak. My entire suspension system from the rooter to the tooter is already flashing a check engine light on the proverbial dashboard of the central nervous system.

I work like a machine. Steady. Long duration sessions 14 sometimes 16 hours without breaks. Fueled by cheap lager, del taco bean goo and reefer. I toil like this despite warnings from Hermann Hesse and Thea von Harbou.

I love seeing a person move with purpose. This nice Asian man at Home Depot last week helped me load some OSB into EL BURRO BLANCO. He was jogging around the parking lot. He had a little ear piece in and was on a call talking about handling some business. He was like a grown up version of ‘Data’ from The Goonies. I’m usually the only one bouncing around, relentlessly dominating tasks. It was nice to see someone else moving with some purpose.

The fat american can only move with purpose when they’re in their penis-compensation-mobiles, hurrying across the motorways and for what? They look miserable.  Hurrying to their next serving of meat.

People in Detroit often wonder aloud, “why do so many chaldeans have so much money?” Because they’ll put three generations, sisters and cousins in one 4,500 square foot house and concentrate their resources. The Italians used to do this too, but they’re drifting into the Americanized way of solitude and mediocrity.

Chaldeans stick together and you look at all the businesses they own after only being in this country one maybe two generations, and it makes you realize just how mysterious the fat american is. Your clan has been here for how many hundred years? Yet live in a house owned by a fucking banker? And a picked-up truck you borrow for 600 fiat american a month.

My clan has been in America for only about 50 years and look at us? We’re thriving. Coping land deals. Eight lots at a time. Immigrant hustle will win nine times out of ten especially in the shadow economy. The land is there. We buy. We fix it to grow corn. We’re the captains now. Go cheer for your college basketball team, stupid american, we will toil and toil and TOIL.

That’s about alls I have in me today in terms of Sunday sentiment.

Raul Santos, May 14th 2021

And now the 338th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/17/21 – 05/21/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.20, neutral.  Steady rally into Tuesday morning, then look for Walmart earnings to dictate direction until Wednesday afternoon, then watch for the third reaction to FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Trend down Monday across the board. Continuation selling through Wednesday. Snapback rally Thursday and into the weekend, accentuated by a trend up Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech and Discretionary rotated away from. Staples and Financials relative strength.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows negatively but not in an extreme manner. There were some key semiconductor industry groups on the negative side of the ledger.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about -130 basis points.

Money flows are slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Counting cycles

See last week’s Strategy Session. It references a 6-month oversold cycle that ended May 4^th. That same day Stocklabs went oversold on the 6-month again. This is where one must decide how they count cycles and which ones count and which ones don’t.

Because if we decide that a signal happening on the tenth day is an active signal, then we are 8 days into a different oversold cycle.

However, the way I count these signals is that it runs through that tenth day and a new signal would only be active the following session.

That puts us into a position where The Wednesday May 12^th oversold signal is active. Otherwise, it would not be since it occurred in the middle of the May 4th signal.

It does not matter which method we choose, only that we stick to it. Otherwise when everything is moving and our emotions are maybe clouding our judgment we are more likely to commit an error.

Of note, the May 12^th oversold signal triggered on both the six and twelve month ago. I am going with it.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Steady rally into Tuesday morning, then look for Walmart earnings to dictate direction until Wednesday afternoon, then watch for the third reaction to FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance and congestion

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports saw an uptick in volatility along the highs here, making the picture heading into next week appear to be balance. Balance along these highs is not bearish.

See below:

Semiconductors are also congested and appear to be in a healthy, time-based correction, balanced along the highs.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after being e(RCS) bullish last week and RCS bearish two weeks prior

We had a Bunker Buster eleven weeks ago.

Neutral means no bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Commit to your business. Believe in it more than anyone else.” Sam Walton

Trade simple, guard your emotional capital

Comments »

This might end up hurting. It certainly feels like I will be fighting the tape and the Fed and Google, but when IndexModel signals Rose Colored Sunglasses I have no choice but to execute my plan.

What is Rose Colored Sunglasses?

Life, especially in the murder mitten, well it can be quite bleak at times. Right now it is not. Right now the spring bloom fills our outsides with wonder and hope. There are about eight other months where a giant lake forms overhead rendering most of life into a grey scale.

If, during the grey days you put on a pair of rose tinted lenses, suddenly everything is a little better. Quite a bit more lovely, actually.

So I named the bearish signal generated by IndexModel Rose Colored Sunglasses because it helps my brain to visualize just exactly what this model is seeing — the four major indices are painting a rosy picture — they’re strong (QQQ was +7% in April, huge) yet when you peel back the layers you start to see some decay and even a bit of rot.

I use Stocklabs to peer inside the complications of the equity system. By joining the scores generated by Stocklabs with those of IndexModel I build an oscillator of sorts, much like a curious technical analyst might see if they ever add an RSI or CCI to their charts. Here is my oscillator. I build it on an excel spreadsheet:

The pink threshold line can be a bit misleading. If the score is extra high (like it was the prior three weeks) that is actually a bullish signal. It calls for a drift. A marking of time, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Does that sound familiar? Look at the daily price action of the S&P 500 over the last three weeks:

The words drift and slight upward bias come to mind, yes?

Anyhow, the only reason I am writing what now is taking the form of a self-congratulating shit post is to clarify why I build this model and what I intend to do in the week ahead.

I build this model in a manner that is simple and manual. I think there is a tendency to throw a lot of computing power at market analysis for the sake of sophistication when in reality the best advancements in performance come from putting lots of honest work in before taking a trade.

There are usually about three hours of Sunday research followed by 20 minutes of planning each morning before I take a single trade that may only last a few minutes.

The harder I work, the luckier I be. It has kept me on a path of consistent profitability. Chop wood. Carry water. That means I cannot just stop doing what put me here. The work never ends.

What I intend to do in the week ahead is find a spot early Monday to initiate a position in SQQQ. That position will have no price-based stop loss, only a time-based stop that triggers Friday. Also I will be working only the short side of the NASDAQ 100 futures. I will be looking for days that open gap up inside the prior day’s range and I will be aggressively working those gap fills. I will be pressing positions to take out overnight low and/or range extension down.

That is what I will be doing next week.

What won’t I be doing?

I will not be raising cash. I will not exit Tesla or Twitter or Del Taco or any other investments. Those are for the kids, man. Investments are just going to ride out whatever happens next week, like a sea lab deep below the waves.

I should mention—this does not feel good. It feels like I am fighting a strong market. It is the start of the month and while I am bullish in general, I tend to be extra bullish when new months begin. Carrying a bearish bias into the week may result in my missing out on some upside action.

But the system is the system is the system and the plan is the plan and I work too hardt to sabotage my own success by getting in the way of systems that have been my rock over the years.

The Raul blog is BEARISH until noted otherwise.

Raul Santos, May 2nd 2021

And now the entire 336th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/03/21 – 05/07/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.08, neutral*.  Strength early Monday is met with aggressive selling, setting up a week of downward price action. Then look for non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning to dictate direction into the weekend.

*IndexModel flagged Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias, see Section IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Marked time. Sideways consolidation.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotation away from key Tech sector. Discretionary resilient. Energy moving independently.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed positive but look at the negative side of the ledger — several semiconductor industry groups.

Volume delta -30% and median return about 75 basis points.

Money flows are slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

What next?

Last week was jam packed with earnings and Fed announcement and presidential addresses. And it was month end. So how did we do? The markets seemed to digest all the information in a healthy manner, consolidating sideways through all of the good, bad and neutral.

We have the first Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish signal of the year as we head into May. The beginning of the month can feature some big swings, and to initiate shorts this week in some ways feels like I could be fighting the tape.

Underlying metric and the context of this week’s report slightly confirm a bearish bias, but not by much.

I will be initiating a short position (likely SQQQ) At some point Monday and will be working the short side of the tape, intra-day, via NASDAQ 100 futures.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Strength early Monday is met with aggressive selling, setting up a week of downward price action. Then look for non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning to dictate direction into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors choppy, Transports continue to rally

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are holding the highs and the price action indicates there is still a discovery up phase underway.

See below:

Semiconductors are sort of forming a range up here. There is some room to the downside before we could consider the action to be discovery down. It certainly is not discovery up. Balance for now.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Tuesday, April 20th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6 month algorithm. This bullish cycle runs through end-of-day May 4th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses for three consecutive weeks.

We had a Bunker Buster nine weeks ago.

Rose Colored Sunglasses calls sellers to control the tape, pressing prices lower.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Humanity must seek what is not simple and obvious using the simple and obvious.” Gaius Musonous Rufus

Trade simple, execute the plan

Comments »