No NASDAQ trading report today. I just closed out a runner long I held overnight in the NASDAQ futures. Holding a highly leveraged futures contract overnight is something I never do because I enjoy life outside of trading far too much to sully it with distractions. Especially this time of year, when the moon is full and pagan x-mas is near.

I haven’t seen a chronic case of hurrying syndrome plague the collective conscious of our motorists this bad in years. It is as if these folks think they can somehow rip back a few minutes of life from the jaws of fate. I have news for them—the only chance to save your soul is a systemic shift in work/life arrangement. You live on the eastside because the housing is cheap but all the work is downtown and out west. Was the savings worth 10-15 hours a week alone in a car?

Some call it their sanctuary.  A reprieve from the phone and family and constant flow of emailed advertisements. Then again, these folks aren’t pressing the bumper of their unnecessary pickup truck into your rear-view mirror.  These folks are taking the drive in, like a slow sip of ambrosia.

I respect that.

I work so hard to not work. The research I publish every Sunday behind the Exodus paywall is some of the most meaningful work I do.  Then I come into public forum, day-after-day, creating a plan. Then I do my job as a trader. I execute the plan, tweeting updates when I come up for air, making my way through life.

No one’s master. No one’s slave.

I consider this work to be my civic duty. To demonstrate how one can engage the global financial complex professionally, from the confines of their home.

I live alone in what can hardly be called a house. I call it Mothership.

Many of the cyclical patterns that society expects a male human to conform to have been cast aside in my pursuit of financial literacy. It did not come naturally. As the son of an immigrant who was abandoned in Detroit by his parents, Elder Raul, a man left to fend for himself with only the guidance of his hell raising gambler and alcoholic of a brother, UNCLE RAUL. Who married an American girl, second of six children, all raised in a disgusting housing tenement on the east side. My parents offered me what privileges they could.

I was kept in parochial schools throughout primary and high school. This was my proving grounds. From K-through-eighth I was educated by strict Lutherans, mostly germanic.  I learned their theology but rarely identified with it.  I studied the works of Martin Luther closely, a hell raiser himself, a man who was regularly “visited” by the devil, who he said farted often.  This always amused me. That the devil has so much gas, because farts are pure, uncut humor for an eleven year old.

The reason I was kept in Lutheran schools despite being so apparently Italian traces back to the town my father immigrated from, a small mountain fort known as Guardia Piemontese. It was a place where northern Italians sought refuge from the demented Catholics, who would just as willingly chop the heads and limbs from women and children then see these souls peacefully find their own way into hell.

Protestants, or Protest-tents as Grandpa Raul used to pronounce it with his thick southern Italian dialect.

At any rate, I never connected with the scripture. We attended church three days a week, and I found it to be an insufferable place.  It was filled with people wearing uncomfortable clothes, sitting hard wooden pews, standing and sitting and standing again like sheep every time their leader demanded it of them.

Their leader…our dear pastor, the one who had an affair with the kindergarten teacher. The local news was all over the scandal. What a disaster.  The decision was made to put me into a Catholic all boys program for high school.

You may have heard of my high school. Their football team was dragged through the news just this fall after reports of sodomy-based hazing occurring in the locker room.  Nevertheless, I enjoyed my time at this school. I was surrounded by Italians and brilliant young thinkers who would go on to schools like Harvard and Westpointe and Yale. I tested into the school at an alarmingly high intelligence, somehow. This landed me into a full catalogue of AP and Honors courses, right off the rip.  I took to math like a sponge.

This is also when I began my crash course in rule breaking. Being a social fellow, academics soon began to bore me. I needed something more invigorating, mostly I needed to develop ways to attract all those catholic school girls to spend quality time with me, preferably whilst still wearing the uniform. Goodness, I was obsessed with those plaid skirts and white oxford button downs.

The bad girls wore doc martins.

I began cheating in AP Biology.  The doctor who taught the calls would nod off and our dumb asses had developed a system of telephone to send the answers from one especially intelligent student (Harvard) all the way around the classroom to the rest of us knuckleheads. We all aced the course. Meanwhile my best childhood friend, ROBERTO BREGANTE, reported that despite dedicating two-to-three hours at home, studying for his base-level biology class, he was struggling to earn a C grade.

An early introduction to privilege amongst the privileged.

Anyways I cheated, lied, stole, drank hooch, smoked cigarettes, and otherwise disrespected my parents, who were shelling out 6-7k per year, my professors, and society as a whole.  I carried this attitude into public university, which was stupidly simple for the first year-and-a-half, as all the regular kids caught up to what I already knew. I became a real monster, obsessed with pleasure and travel.

The bill came due.

My second semester of sophomore year I earned a 1.6 GPA. To add insult to injury, my parents, primarily my mother (Elder Raul kept himself distracted with long hours of work) revealed to me that in her well-intended hopes of not disappointing her sweet little boy (moi), she had been taking out credit cards in my name to help cover the expenses of my college.

Sweet little boy Raul had been under the impression that his parents were paying his way through university, free-and-clear. This was not the case.

This is was my first reality check. Being a student of finance, devastated that I had unknowingly acquired over ten thousand dollars in high interest bearing debt, I moved back home with my parents, enrolled into community college, and began reshaping myself as a decent human.

It took nearly a decade, and that story, dear readers of this old Raul blog, is for another day.

I started writing this post because I broke a rule I never break last night.  I held a highly leveraged futures position overnight. It paid off. I did it for a reason because listen—sometimes you have to break rules.

We printed a normal day yesterday, which is anything but normal. It only happens less than 18% of the time.  We are at all time stock market highs. Exodus was showing about 70% breadth. I had made a huge gain on the position by being long ahead of the Trump tweet.  I had reloaded when we fell back to the midpoint.  I had scaled profits off AGAIN, and given the context (look at the PHLX semiconductor index, incredible) it was time to break a rule.

Still it doesn’t feel good. It felt like a step into my old shoes. Dirty shoes that have walked through more shit than I would like to admit.

Anyways, like a good Catholic, I have aired my past sins out and already feel a bit better.

I will spend the rest of today working on my character.

The quote on last Sunday’s strategy session came from Frederick Douglass, a true badass:

“I prefer to be true to myself, even at the hazard of incurring the ridicule of others, rather than to be false, and to incur my own abhorrence.”

Right on, brother.

Off to meditate of renouncing all these possessions, to focus on being a decent and kind human. On humility and patience.  Have a peaceful and replenishing weekend all, thank you for reading along.

Cheers.

Raul Santos, December 13th, 2019

Comments »

This morning I was strolling around one of my favorite neighborhoods in Detroit—savoring the stillness of Sunday morning, admiring the charming urban decay that resides mere blocks away from million dollar estates—and it reminded that none of us truly own land. This particular neighborhood has maple trees that are well over 300 years old. If any living thing were the true owners of said land it would be them. We are merely the keepers, tending to them, shaping them to suit our vision.

That got me to thinking about other things we think we own, shares in immortal entities like Alphabet, Inc (Google parent). All part of the grande illusion I suppose…a system our brains have been trained onto through the use of coinage at one point, coinage now represented as numbers on servers at banks and elsewhere.

It is all enough to make us way out of touch with the real world. The earth. Our decaying bodies.  Then there is this linear concept of time we can so self-righteously perceive. What is time if not just another human earthling perception? Einstein proved time to be a arbitrary human construct with his theory of relativity. But the reality is time is some thing real, and of all the things we don’t own, it is the thing we borrow the least amount of.

Which is why we ought to seek out ways to use our borrowed time to progress ourselves and the society around us.  Will we only leave messy, burnt out, half-assed, half-completed projects in our wake?  Or will there be something tangible for the next humans to build upon and thrive?

And in the meantime are we L-I-V-I-N’?  I have written before that the two most natural human states are resting and making love. Someone countered that “fight or flight” is just as natural.  I disagree.  It may be necessary at times, like in an unprovoked wild animal attack, but human interaction only triggers this necessary response if being in or encountering another living thing in a state of disease. Being diseased (dis-eased) is the symptom of something anything but natural—most often symptoms that arise when humans lose touch with the real world.  Saying fantastic things like ‘it was the will of the gods’ and other nonsense. So while fight-or-flight is innate, and sure…natural, it is nowhere near as natural as making love or sitting still.

Then why am I working right now?  This is my intellectual state.  Is it natural?  Not really.  This inquisitive behavior sort of flickers up when I need to put on my modern living hat and earn fiat American dollars. I like to think we are awakening from these illusions of necessity, these generally accepted social constructs, and in a fragmented sort of way we’re all trying to find our way back to reality. I work enough to participate in the fate of humanity, to progress alongside it as I see fit.

As long as I exist I will strive to help people break free from working more than they sleep or have sex. As for having enough coins to keep bankers from taking my work spaces away, the ones I borrow for now, tending to and improving upon, I will earn just enough fiat American dollars to keep those diseased mongrels away.

Models remain bullish into the second week of the final month of the decade.

RAUL SANTOS, December 8th, 2019

Exodus members, the 264th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

Comments »

I am probably going to write about death a bunch this month.  For starters, today in the murder mitten the weather is a particular kind of glum that occurs when a thick grey soup settles the entire sky making the city cement unable to differentiate itself from the sky.  There are no shadows only shades of taupe where the airy pea soup is thinner or thicker.

But before we go into mortality and all the wonderful meditations around it, I want to acknowledge a few readers of this here old Raul blog. Mr. Numbersgame, I have not been ignoring your comments from the You gotta know when to hold’em post.  I intend to read them when I am in the mood to receive the thoughts and give them my full attention.  Thank you for taking the time to write them out.  Mr. Bernankenstein, several weeks you have left comments on the Exodus Strategy Session saying “thank you”  and calling me the Spanish milk.  I appreciate those comments, thank you.

Today is the first day of the final month of this decade so back to death.  As a sit here, near the peak male age of 34, and reflect on all the chances I’ve taken before now, it is a wonder I am still alive at all.  There were times when I would take a chance on something, often feats of physical absurdity, without giving much of any thought to the payoff, or reward, of taking such risk.  Climbing the outsides of ten-story buildings just to take in the view.  Careening down motor highways on a wheeled board with no brakes.  Somersaulting off cliffs into dark waters.  These days I rarely venture out, but when I do it always involves driving because metro Detroit is so grotesquely spread out in every which way. Every drive, especially heading into the madness that is the holidays, features a moment where some kook sickened with the hurrying syndrome, doing the devil knows what on their mobile device, flings their car to-and-fro.  I watch and wonder what could possibly have them some mentally twisted and bent to behave that way?  But as they say, if you see it, you be it.  So perhaps there is a glimmer of myself in these maniacs.  So much rushing, for what? We all end up the same.

It can seem pessimistic to talk about cycling from life-to-death, or it can be seen as a call to action.  To do what matters today, for all people, to ease this human condition, brief as it may be.  To use our reasoned choice and our reasoned choice alone to change the things we can and make them better.  Patient with the long term goals, urgent with short-term execution.  And being kind along the way.

That is all I can think of for now.  Hope your Thanksgiving was nice, that genocide of birds for their meat, makes you wonder who the savages are.

Models are bullish heading into the first week of the last month of the decade.  Cheers.

Raul Santos, December 1st, 2019

Exodus members, the 263rd edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

Comments »

I saw some feller on the Twitter this morning tweet that he was 100% cash in his investment portfolio.  He was asking some other feller if he should feel okay about his position, because the other feller had tweeted something about how good trading is about being alone.  Okay enough about it without sharing the original tweet:

Psychology is EVERYTHING.

When you're supposed to load up on risk, you're alone. Everyone is terrified. You go offside, short term.

When you're supposed to get out and derisk, everyone is celebrating. You're alone. Stupid, short term.

Doing it right…is always alone.

— Robert Duval (@Cessnadriver50) November 16, 2019

 

so I should feel like a jerk in 100% cash or I am brave for de-risking here.

— jimmyolsenblues (@jimmyolsenblues) November 17, 2019

I am not trying to put these fellers on blast without reason.  I share these tweets because I think it is irresponsible to yourself and the people who are stakeholders in your well-being for you to ever, I repeat EVER, be 100% cash.  Cash is not king.  Wealth is owning capital goods. Stocks are liquid and really only to be sold as needed to fund purchases of even longer-term, less liquid assets like land and cement.

Land and cement and steel and wood that you can use to generate income.  A place to charge Birds near an urban center.  A greenhouse full of ornamental plants you can sell to girls in yoga pants with lots of disposable income.  A workshop where you can crank out doohickeys to sell online.  A garage to store your tractors and tools—tools that you can use to help people realize their building ambitions whilst making an honest gain.

Welcome to the gig economy.  More and more people are waking up to the fact that serving a corporation for 30-40 years while it realizes its ambition is not a fulfilling use of brief human existence.  The most natural state for a human to be in is either resting or engaged in sex.  Anything beyond these two states is unnatural and unlikely to satisfy our core needs.

But of course we need “money”.  But cash is risky.  You’re better off having some liquid cash, some tradable inventory that you produce yourself, and stores of wealth/work like solar panels or batteries or art.  You need mechanisms in place that passively produce income so people will leave you alone to rest and make love.

With that being said, my futures trading account goes to all cash every day.  Any time I have a big run up in that account, I funnel it over my long term accounts and immediately buy stocks using FAITH BASED INVESTING.  Faith based investing is the only way you will be able to tolerate the volatile nature of concentrated stock market investments.

Most americans are over-diversified.  It is why they end up making modest improvements to their wealth situation but never meaningful, life changing gains.  Which is fine if that allows them to fill their life with cheer and rest.  If you are going to put 25-40% of your investment portfolio into Tesla, you better be fully committed the way a faithful person is to their god(s).  Otherwise, uncertainty will lead to error and then guess what?  You go 100% cash at an even worse moment than some jobber going all cash with markets at record highs.  Without faith, the unfortunate outcome for most concentrated bets is the panic sell, that when looked back upon several years later on a chart looks really, well, unfortunate.

And that is all I had to say about investing and that set of tweets above.

Models are bullish.  They are registering their highest readings ever.  My play is to only work the long side of the tape, intra-day on the NASDAQ futures.  If we come into a day with a gap down inside range, you best believe I am taking a position pre-market and then continuing to accumulate into any early selling, with the goal of working the gap fill.

If we cross up through the daily mid, and there is still an overnight stat or range extension stat, I will be working that cross targeting either of those stats.

If we trade down into one of the market profile levels highlighted during my morning reports, I will be fading that move back higher.

Those are may three main moves.  I’ve made my career on those trades.  I’ve practiced those same three kicks, live, over two thousand times.  Once I have done them 10,000 times, perhaps I will be approaching some sort of real mastery.  Until then I remain a student.

Bullish until noted otherwise.

Raul Santos, November 17th 2019

Exodus members, the 261st edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

Comments »

Not much to say.

Sunday research is complete.  I like that Walmart reports before market open.  There are only a handful of stocks that anyone should bother paying attention to, and even fewer that anyone should own.  For the most part, the tickers worth owning come from the west—names like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, maybe Twitter.  You always have to wait until after-market-close to trade these earnings announcements.  But Walmart, which is just as worthy of tracking and owning as the above, they report in the morning.  Like a chicken and bread eating American they are on the road early, commuting to their work, at their work station by 7am sorting boxes and clicking buttons.  I dig that.  Walmart reports Thursday morning then Nvidia reports Thursday afternoon.  Thursday is likely to be pivotal.  Sure, Fed Chairman Jay Powell speaking Wednesday afternoon is likely to cause some rotations, but the Fed has proven predictable.  Walmart tells the story of America’s economy (and therefore the world’s economy) better than any silly government statistic.  Certainly more relevant than GDP.

As we continue to transition to decentralized currencies like bitcoin, government stats will become less-and-less relevant, much like the various stations of the government have already become.

Anyhow enough of that.  As I highlighted in the strategy session the NASDAQ transportation index is really pressing up into the upper boundary of its multi-year price range.  This key contextual sub index is likely to tell a story about the overall stock market soon and you should have at least 1/5th of your computer screens dedicated to monitoring this instrument.

You really don’t need anything else.  We are at all-time record high stock prices lads.  These are casual times where advisors are gods, optimists are right again and active trading is less lucrative than when we’re in the thick of the auction.  Behave accordingly.

Raul Santos, November 10th, 2019

Exodus members, the 260th edition of Strategy Session is live.  Be sure to read the notes about the NASDAQ Transportation index, at a minimum. Cheers.

 

Comments »

I am not one for excuses, especially when it is 7am and a cement truck is about to arrive.  Because at that point the only option is to more work on me.  Grieving over daylight savings is a popular plebeian pastime (PPP).  But by-golly my sleep schedule is out-of-whack, and with my circadian rhythms off I figured it was best I withdrew myself from the NASDAQ 100 arena.

This is the benefit of being time rich and independent.  Nobody can tell me I have to work.  I love to work, and sometimes I work too hardt.  This has not been a work-too-hardt week.  First off it has become quite cold in the murder mitten.

And I welcome the cold.  As any faithful reader of the old Raul blog knows, my primary objective is to extract as many fiat american dollars as possible from the global financial complex and use said dollars to acquire land as far north and at as high an altitude as my constitution will allow.  Then to build.  I come from a long line of builders and soldiers.  We build and we fight and we fuck and we farm.  Additional fiat american extractions will be converted into quonset huts and water-heated cement pads.  Greenhouses and solar panels and lithium-ion batteries.

So I am big on conditioning my mind and this sack of fluid my soul occupies to handle the cold.  Right now the inside temperature of Mothership is a brisk 52 degrees Fahrenheit. I am wearing finger-less wool gloves, shorts and a Nike heatgear tee shirt that is designed to wick any moisture off my body. This shirt keeps me from suffering from any sweat chills.  I am barefoot like Honest Cato, of course.  The only heat sources are a fire near by bed which I’ve kept lit this entire week, the flame below my soup stock pot and the the human mammal heat I generate via frequent jumping jacks and other calisthenic exercises.

What most millennials (and boomers) fail to understand is that the only escape from normalcy is to BE different.  I choose to remove as many modern creature comforts as possible, instead focusing on stocking my coffers with homegrown jellies, gathering wood and foraging for food and stuff to sell on Craiglist like a beautiful trash panda.

Some would see a man such as myself, who hasn’t left the house in days and say, “That fucker has no ambition.  Look at him, poking that stupid fire and reading books all day.”  Little do they know I am constantly plotting, waiting, ready to strike with merciless tenacity when the right opportunity presents itself.

And it is nearly showtime.  Or at the least, nearly snowtime.  And humble Raul thrives in the winter.

Plus the stock market is just prancing around up here at record highs.  There is not much for me to do.  I will not simply work for the sake of work, I know better than to do something for the sake of curing boredom or “appearing” productive.  What matters most is the health of my mind and body, otherwise I will be in no condition to help the people around me.  Work for the sake of work is not only a waste of time, but when it comes to trading it is a recipe for disaster.  I have seen 20 year professional traders, legends amongst our ranks, drift away from their plans and suffer major losses during slow tapes.

None of us are immune.  The best we can do is feel in-touch with our ourselves, prepare all our research, then trade our plan.  In doing this we can be liberated from the monotony of W-2 employment.  But what the heck am I going on about?  Every time I preach this line of trading to a room full of people they just want to fire tickers at me, or talk about how profound seasonality is or talk big shit about their five thousand dollar in-the-money call option position in Apple.  So I am done.  Do whatever you want.  I am off to do some dead lifts.

I will be back Sunday with an update on these super strong markets.

Good day and cheers to your weekend.

Raul Santos, November 8th, 2019

Comments »

As a rule of thumb, and folks I have massive thumbs, my hands were passed down from the old country. GRANDPA RAUL was a soldier for the fascist Mussolini regime.  He spent seven years as a prisoner-of-war in Africa before returning to Italy and adding five children to the three he’d had before the war, one of those children being Elder Raul.  As a rule of thumb I do not trade late into the Friday session because there is no sense in sullying the mind before two days of market-free rest.  A big loss late in the day Friday can distract nearly 48 hours of family time and philosophical study, and it just isn’t worth taking that risk for another seven or eight hundred fiat American dollars.  But I worked late Friday because I had a reason to stick around and trade:

NYSE TICK went third sigma on the open, what that means is I am pressing intra-day /nq longs harrrrrd

— RAUL (@IndexModel) November 1, 2019

Exodus also aligned with my late-Friday buy campaign:

also note: 80% up breadth according to Exodus

them are go with numbers, not fade numbers

im gunning for 8200 /nq

— RAUL (@IndexModel) November 1, 2019

This is a big problem with losing “traders” —they take action for the sake of action because they are trying to fill some existential void in their life with purpose, unaware that by carelessly trading financial instruments in an attempt to fill that void they are likely to blow an even wider chasm in their soul as their suffering and losing drives the people they love away from them.  Then, in isolation, these failed traders turn their self-pitying into blaming society, the democrats, women too smart/attractive to engage, Big Tech and more as an excuse for their failure.  This destructive loop continues, ad nauseam, until they either snap out of it and make a determined effort to rebuild the software inside their minds or they give up and return to being a W-2 wage slave, being told what to do like a dog because they are incapable of catching their own bounty like a wolf.

Anyways, if you are reading the old Raul blog you likely identify far more as a they/them wolf then a dog.  I worked late Friday because I had a reason to and while it is bad form to talk about winning trades I’ll just say it was a pretty sweet Friday.

MOVING ON.

Most of the firms relevant to the NASDAQ 100 have already reported.  The Fed has already cut interest rates.  It’s already November.  The algos are still bullish.  This run on the highs is long-in-tooth but that is no reason to assume it is about to roll over.  It might, but as I discussed in this Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session, always trying to be on the ‘right’ side of the market’s oscillations is unrealistic.  YES, we have been on both sides of all the last several major market rotations inside Strategy Session, but that is not always going to be the case and to think it will be is foolish.  If you want to be a fool there is a whole finance site dedicated to being a fool.  There are also books called “Idiots Guide To…” that are perhaps better suited for people who view themselves this way.  We do not view ourselves this way.

We are astute speculators, fully accepting our fate.  We live by the sword.  We know the inherent risk of our craft and we do our absolute best to mitigate those risks.  Then we show up every day with a plan and we trade that plan and let the results of these activities happen.  Trading like this can be a tool for building our character at all times, regardless of the outcome.  Or it can be an accelerated route to becoming a degenerate.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH.

Raul Santos, November 3rd, 2019.

Exodus members, the 259th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

 

Comments »

I am working on being more easy going.  After all I am growing old, having been 34 for nearly four months now, and I prefer to be kind to folks.  It is tricky when you live by the sword of trading.  In some ways I feel like the old guard and with that comes a sense of duty.  I want to exact justice against phonies who deal in selling trading education.  But what the hell for?  After the phonies go on stage and give their spiel, Q&A rolls around and people always behave in the same, disappointing way—defending their strategy, boasting of their accomplishments and demonstrating an in general attitude about doing nothing and attaining riches.

Fine.

So lately I am setting the intention to seek real equanimity, and not just some surface-level thought exercise.  I mean really meditating on it, tying with steel re bar this modality onto my mind’s foundation stones.  The slow driver?  The rude old man?  The blonde with long hair down to her cute little butt?  The clerk bagging groceries?  THE DOCTOR? The criminal?  The homeless? The body builder? That deer crossing the road? The guy selling an options trading service? The bird on the feeder? The opossum?  Giving them all the benefit of any doubt and shining my warm light their way.

I tell you what helps make my life super cruise-y and chill even though I hate to admit it—having lots of money.  It just does.  And when I make big, sweeping strides and acquire lots more money seemingly all at once, I don’t want to be a huge asshole like I can do sometimes.  Like calling people idiots for not investing in Tesla.  That is uncalled for.

Okay now let’s talk about how the market is likely to behave from today-onward.

The Sunday research I published into Exodus this morning indicates that all four major U.S. equity indices are statistically likely to be higher over the next five days.  We have three major earnings announcements coming up this week; Alphabet (Google), Facebook and Apple in that order.  The CME is pricing in a 93.5% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday :::inhales and exhales slowly:::  All of these events are likely to support higher prices.

The PHLX semiconductor index is at all-time highs.

Friday is November first.

So we rally into the new month, then new funds push into stocks to start the month since every W-2 earning employee in America has a chunk of their paycheck sent to the stock market which the majority of their retirement is dependent on.  That fresh money flows like a river into quality stocks, pressing equity prices higher clean into the holiday season, then we continue to rally into year-end. Then the new year starts and we rally again.

So there is not much to do here.  Your money should already be allocated long.  You don’t need to jump from one hot stock to another in some manic way, being active for the sake of activity.  If you are bored, go dig a hole or swim.  Channel that hedonistic energy into making delicious food for your family.  If you made some more money from other capitalistic pursuits, simply buy more of the best stocks in the world: TSLA, TWTR, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, COST, WMT, and so on.  Avoid ghetto stocks unless you want drama.  If you want drama, may I suggest going to the theater?

One quick note about Exodus.  Bear in mind I am not compensated in any way for promoting Exodus, or for all the research I publish inside Exodus, or for posting some of my trades inside Exodus, or for blogging in public forum like this.  The Fly does grant me access to the Exodus tool suite at no charge, which saves me about 500 bucks a year.  I would gladly pay several thousand dollars a year for Exodus, but that is beside the point.  See how I can digress?

One quick note about Exodus.  From October 2nd through October 25th we had a live signal.  Normally they only last 10 trading sessions but what happened was we flagged Hybrid overbought about 7 days into the oversold cycle.  It was one of the best trades out of the software this year.  I really don’t think any members traded this signal properly.  Maybe I am wrong.  Maybe they just silently go about their business and I hope that is the case because this trade was huge.  Using TQQQ to 3x leverage the position, I returned about +16% on this trade.

If you can be patient and trade signals like these, whether from Exodus or somewhere else, you are well on your way to becoming a successful (read: consistently profitable) trader.

 

Okay I am done. Thanks for reading along.

RAUL SANTOS, October 27th, 2019

Exodus members, the 258th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out and let me know if you traded the oversold-to-overbought signal properly, cheers!

 

 

Comments »

Our Dear Leader led his team of scientists and engineers to do what no one else on the planet was capable of—executing a massive manufacturing strategy to assume control everything. Transportation, energy, diplomacy with China.  Say no more.  If you aren’t invested in Tesla at these prices you’re a fool.  All those “Idoit’s Guide To…” books are written for you, the idiot.

Someone on iBankCoin had/has/continues to have a massive $TSLA position. Consider this a humble victory lap.  Praise and Glory to The Leader. I share with you His Tweet regarding earnings, and then I bid you well:

Tesla Q3 results:

– Shanghai Giga ahead of schedule
– Model Y ahead of schedule
– Solar installs +48% from Q2
– GAAP profitable
– Positive free cash flow

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 23, 2019

Comments »

Just finished my Sunday research, and the Strategy Session I just logged behind the paywall of Exodus is a banger.  And since I have little incentive to privatize the information I create, and since many readers of the old humble Raul blog have a hard time grasping how to even use actionable information, I am going to share a few key tidbits from the report to public forum.

First the Executive Summary.  When you open up Strategy Session this is the first thing you will see, Section I. I use roman numerals to give the report a serious tone, because believe me, it is.  The Executive Summary is everything I analyze and compute concentrated down into as few words as possible.  It is designed to give women of industry a quick snapshot of what to expect on the week.  Here is this Sunday’s entry:

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.10, neutral.  Equity prices continue to work higher, accelerating to the upside after Wednesday, with earnings out of Microsoft and Tesla (Wednesday AMC) serving as the catalyst, and then Amazon earnings (Thursday AMC) acting as the accelerant.

I don’t think most people understand what drives stock market behavior.  Their first mistake is watching the news.  Like literally, most people sit down and stare at a box that shows moving pictures and they expect to gain insight into why things happen.  Really disturbing when you think about it.  I hooked the antenna on the roof of Mothership to my 70 inch Samsung before the weekend because I had a large gathering and wanted my guests to have access to sporting events.  I am inclusive host, and while I would rather slide my eyeballs along a sheet of ice than watch american college football, I knew there were going to be some adult males at my party and I wanted them to feel comfortable.  There were actually seven different genders at my party and everyone had a blast.  I digress.  The antenna pulls in 60 digital channels essentially for free.  And when the adult males were gathered around the television, I couldn’t help but notice the occasional talking head that would pop on the screen and feed quick news take.  All useless bullshit.  Fortunately the tevee was muted, and latino music was being played loudly, except for the occasional times when my nephew would interrupt my Google Play playlist to play The Jurassic Park theme song or his favorite hits from Guardians of The Galaxy.  Wow I am really digressing.  In any event, most people do not know what drives the stock market.  I want to bring your attention to Section III of the report, which discusses an algorithmic cycles we are in the middle of and highlights which contextual world happenings we can actually quantify and objectively judge:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Understanding the Overbought signal’s historical statistics

As I stated last week, the Exodus “Mother algo” (36-month) swung from oversold-to-overbought.  This is about as bullish as the system can be, but unless you understand the historical statistics, you might be inclined to close out trades early, and historically speaking that is a mistake.  When you look at the below data set, it is important you focus on what happens from Day 5 and beyond:

Most of the gains that have happened when this signal fires happen towards the end of the cycle.

Okay now pair that with our current market context—we have protests happening all over the globe, U.S. politics are heating up, including an ongoing attempt to impeach the President.  But more importantly, pair our overbought signal with something far more palpable like the upcoming earnings announcements from Microsoft and Tesla (Wednesday AMC) and Amazon (Thursday AMC).  These will be real numbers, objective results that the markets will immediately react to.  These organizations are more important than any sovereign state or their politicians and protestors, and if these companies are growing their businesses, and the market reacts favorably, that is all that matters to us as speculators.

Removing my biases and said more simply, the earnings due out this week are likely to validate our trading signal.

But when we really step back and think about the big picture, it goes back to the Core Long-Term Bullish Thesis I laid out back in December of 2017 when I was on one.  Nothing has changed since then as I continue to be on a proverbial one.  In case you are too busy to take a trip back to December 2017, the quick-and-dirty is Moore’s Law of computing power, and the exponential growth curve associated with it, paired with innovations in AI, and then inter-spliced with Darwinian Evolution gives us a clear indication that we are not likely to experience another recession for the rest of my mortal existence, which I estimate to be another oh 80 years-or-so.   In case you’re not too good at reading comprehension, this handy video might help you wrap your brain around what I am talking about:

This is incredible. pic.twitter.com/XluN9zOnEl

— Joel Shackleton (@JoelShackleton) September 23, 2019

When it comes to semiconductors, we have a very simple way of tracking the progress they are making and whether or not the developing facts on the ground support my thesis.  The PHLX Semiconductor index is monitored closely as part of the Strategy Session, and this week’s entry cuts through all the other nonsense you will read about investing, finance, the stock market, stocks, trading, forex, fuck you, crypto, bull shit. Please read this excerpt from Section IV:

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

Semiconductors poked to a new high again, now looking like discovery

Semiconductors look like they may be entering another leg of discovery up.  Watch for earnings out of Intel (Thursday AMC) to offer clarity on whether this upside can stick.  If it does, this key contextual index is likely to lift the entire market.

See below:

The semiconductor index being at this key junction is everything you need to monitor.  At least 30 inches of my screens, the lenses with which I view the entire world, will be dedicated to this index.  No news needed, thank you.

That is all I wanted to say about the upcoming week and what my research is signalling.

As anyone whose read the old Raul blog over the years knows, Tesla is my largest investment by quite a bit.  People often ask me, “Hey Raul, you’re always swooning over Elon Musk’s latest achievements and sucking the dicks of every electric transportation robot rolling off the Tesla factory floor, why don’t you own a Tesla?”  I would like to address this now—my purpose during this blip of divine mortal existance is to extract as many Fiat U.S. Federal Reserve notes from the global financial complex as possible.  Said fiat is to be converted into property as far north and at as high an altitude as my constitution will allow.  Said funds will also be used to procure other real assets like cement, greenhouses, tractors, solar panels and batteries.  Any excess reserves will be converted into bitcoin for the inevitable need to conduct “illicit transactions” once the demented Chinese seize control of the planet.  If you think I intend to let some commies oppress me into their small box life you’re nuts.  So for now, I don’t need a Tesla.  My faithful Ford Focus, aka EL BURRO, is operating just fine.

Praise and Glory to Elon.  Praise and Glory to The Leader.  Praise and Glory to Tesla.

fin

RAUL SANTOS, October 20th, 2019

Exodus members, the 257th edition of Strategy Session is live.  There are a few interesting tidbits that I left out of this spirited blog entry, go check it out!

 

Comments »