iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,867 Blog Posts

Edit-undo // NASDAQ erases Wednesday selling // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the fourth day of the second week of Black History Month gap up after an overnight session featuring normal volume on extreme range. Price was balanced overnight until about 3am New York when buyers stepped in and drove the bid 50 points higher. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly worse than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with an open auction inside range, right along the Tuesday high. Price spiked a bit higher during the opening swings before tightly chopping for about 45 minutes. Then sellers stepped in and drove back into the Tuesday range, effectively closing the overnight gap then continuing to drive down through the Tuesday low. There was a brief rotation higher before a secondary rotation of sellers saw price down a few point below last Friday’s low. That would mark the end of the selling campaign. From there onward the auction was upward. Sellers defended the midpoint the first time it was tested but buyers reclaimed it late in the session. We ended the day a few points above the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through the Wednesday high 13,762 to set up a tag of 13,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 13,807 early on, setting up a run to 13,882.50.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,667.25. From there we continue down through overnight low 13,612.50. Look for buyers down at 13,600 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Powell on deck, here is Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the third day of the second week of Black History Month up a quick +60 after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price campaigned higher overnight, rallying up beyond the Tuesday high until about 5:30am New York when sellers were able to briefly work price back down into the Tuesday range. At 8:30am CPI data came out below expectations:

As we approach cash open price is back above the Tuesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-year note auction at 1pm, then both a speaking engagement from Fed Chairman Powell and a Treasury Statement from Secretary Yellen.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down in range, with price beginning the day right in the middle of Monday’s range. Buyers drove higher off the open, closing the overnight gap and continuing beyond the Monday high to tag the first of our Fibonacci extensions. Upward price discovery stalled out shortly after going range extension up and we spent the rest of the session chopping along the midpoint, eventually closing right along it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to drive away from the Tuesday high 13,735.25 by working up through overnight high 13,769.25 to set up a tag of 13,800. Then look for the third reaction to all the 2pm economic information to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 13,807 setting up a run to 13,882.50. Then look for the third reaction to all the 2pm economic information to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory, reclaiming the Tuesday range 13,735.25 early on and sustaining trade below it to set up a gap fill down to 13,690.25. Sellers continue lower, taking out overnight low 13,664.25. Then look for the third reaction to all the 2pm economic information to dictate direction into the second half of the day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Open gap in range ;-) here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of the second week of Black History Month down a mild -20 after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight, essentially marking time after briefly poking above the Monday high around 7:30pm. As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed normal variation down. The day began with with a gap up above last Friday’s range. There was a brief open two-way auction outside the range before buyers stepped in and took out overnight high. Said buyers stalled out within 45 minutes of the cash markets being open and we formed an excess high. Then sellers reclaimed the mid and after chopping along it once sellers worked the market range extension down, effectively closing the overnight gap and exceeding it by about 10 handles before discovering a responsive bid. Price then rallied back above the mid late in the day and ended above it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,683.50. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 13,698, tagging 13,729.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, taking out overnight low 13,651 early on to set up a move down to 13,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 13.532 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ up a quick +60 into Monday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second full week of Black History Month up a quick +60 after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price steadily campaigned higher overnight, trading to record heights and holding the levels as we approach cash open.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week saw a ap up to begin the week then a conviction buying range Monday. Pro gap up into Tuesday and move conviction buying. Some consolidation through early Thursday, then a continuation of the rally through Thursday and Friday. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up outside of range. Sellers quickly resolved the gap with a open drive down. The selling only managed to press a bit below the Thursday close before a responsive bid stepped in. Said buyers reclaimed the morning daily midpoint and sustained trade above it before setting up a rotation higher. Said rotation made a new record high before price eventually fell back to the mid and ended the day chopping along the top side of it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, taking out overnight high 13,687.25 and tagging 13,700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 13,729 setting up a run to 13,800.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 13,605.75. Look for buyers down at 13,533.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Back from the mountains with an important message about mind control

I suspect this entry will be overlooked for the most part, what with the NFL, or rather Tom Brady, putting on one of the best shows in the world today, but alas, I am back from the mountains lads. My research is caught up. I feel ready to re-engage the speculative financial markets.

And daddy we have some good signals heading into the week that’ll have me working the long side of the tape until I say otherwise.

There is nothing more empowering than a set of tools to consistently help reset the footing and mind of a hardened speculator. I spent the last twelve days or so drinking hootch and careening down rocky cliffs with a board strapped to my feet. In my downtime I’d shitpost on Twitter about doge and other internet culture that most of these fintwit dopes seem to be unable to grasp.

Let’s have an aside for a moment, shall we? And discuss why doge coin is working…

If you were around back in 2017 during the first big run in bitcoin then maybe you remember what it was like to see something mysterious and detached from the traditional financial markets skyrocket in value. However, you had to be in Miami beach during Art Basel to fully appreciate the reality of it.

I am telling you…it made the madness of the human mind visceral.

That Saturday night, the first weekend of the festival, at the Fontainebleau (no Impala) was the most absurd display of influencer wealth I have ever seen in my life. I am telling you, it was shocking. Dozens, I am not exaggerating, DOZENS, like at least thirty, of Lamborghini cars DEFACED with wretched paint jobs…made to look like Mario Cart toys, emblazoned with Bitcoin symbology. Amongst other things.

Women I’ve never heard of nor cared to know, dressed like cheetahs, followed by no less than five helpers all pointing cellphone cameras and flashlights at them.

Asian dudes, on laptops, with thousand dollar bottles of champaign next to them, rapidly trading YES TRADING LIVE, big denominations, while the thump of club music pulsed through the air.

Basketball players, b-list celebrities, money like you’ve never seen on display.

A real horror show and I loved it. I saw this little model of a dumpster—created with excruciating attention to detail, no bigger than a shoe box, sell for $5,000.

I was so tickled by it all I had to learn more. I had a tiny platform back in Detroit, a town that has a strange connection to Miami. I am the organizer of the Stocktwits meet-up group up here and I started calling meetings. Giving presentations and listening to anyone who bothered to show up. This is when I met real blockchain folks.

These were not the flashy kind from Miami. These were hunkered down discrete types, speaking about revolution, about upheval of the whole financial system. On their coattails, the most corporate, douche baggy, privacy stealing organizations on the planet.

What a shit show…

Anyhow this is right around when all these shit coins started materializing. With a few simple keystrokes, White Papers were formed and suddenly every dickhead had their own cryptocurrency.

It really tarnished bitcoin and CRYPTO WINTER ensued.

I kept faith in bitcoin. I accumulated it for the next several years. I also accumulated bitcoin cash and bitcoin gold because I had no idea what any of it meant. I accumulated ethereum as well because, and I shit you not this is how simple I keep things…it had a cool name.

Some of the local blockchain heads talked me into buying EOS also. But it was all above my head and that’s when I sort of had enough of it all.

But then there was DOGE.

Less than a single fiat penny each, this was a coin that had a lovable dog on it. I knew it was the type of thing the internet could make work.

And we’ve come full circle to me shitposting on Twitter when not snowboarding. Memes are what control the collective consciousness of earth.

This has been the case forever. Why do you think the Christians became so powerful? That fucking image of a cross. One of the most powerful memes of all time.

Dogs and cats do really well on the internet. A doge coin will do really well in today’s society.

This isn’t rocket science people.

Now I may be just a simple speculator, but I hope, that during my tenure here at iBankCoin I have demonstrated, live, more than anyone, what the ingredients are for being a strong investor. We invest in people and we invest in religions. That’s it.

The people must be sexy, like Daddy Elon or Noble Jack. The religions must be drastic, like bitcoin and now doge. Sure, there are situation where we invest in other stuff, like my call on oil back in April. When the financial markets throw the baby out with the bathwater we have to be there to eat the baby. That’s just how nature works. Then, since we knew Biden would win and how most people will fuck up and invest in solar going into a Democratic president and how the market rarely rewards common sense thinking, we stayed bullish on oil and continue to be bullish on oil. But these situational things are not the type of investments that change our life. People, sexy people change our lives. So do religions. These are the types of investments we need to constantly seek out. Then we accumulate and think. And fast. And wait.

They don’t come around often.

Anyhow, enough of that, there is a Super Bowl to watch. That handsome lad with the nice hair is attempting to do the impossible, be old and win. Beware an old tiger sensing his last fight.

Raul Santos, February 7th, 2021

And now the 324th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 02/08/21 – 02/12/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.85, medium bull. Stocks are flat-to-lower early in the week. Then look for price to rally higher into the end of the week. Watch for third reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s Wednesday afternoon speaking to dictate the move into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Gap up to begin the week then a conviction buying range Monday. Pro gap up into Tuesday and move conviction buying. Some consolidation through early Thursday, then a continuation of the rally through Thursday and Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Broad rotation higher. Energy leading but as always trading independently. Utilities and Staples lagging behind, along with healthcare.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed heavily to the positive side of the ledger. Median industry return on the week well over 4%.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Industry analysis

This week the way I analyze money flows between industries finally migrated away from Exodus. I figured out a way to use Stocklabs instead and I like the results. What makes Stocklabs so powerful is the ability to tailor the tools to fit different trading styles.

I trade NASDAQ futures, primarily during the opening bell. A major component of my strategy is formulating a directional bias heading into the week. I need objective means of doing this. Having a highly customizable industry analysis is a powerful way to aid this process. I can see which industries are having abnormal returns, what the market caps of these industries are. This gives me a sense of the “quality” of what is moving higher and lower.

I then codify this information on a sliding scale: bearish, slightly bearish, neutral, slightly bullish, bullish.

As I do this, over time, I gain even more objective information about my process and the results it produces.

Armed with these types of tools I build confidence in my independent analysis of the speculative financial markets. Even if I have losses on a week, I know there is information to gain and a continued path forward.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Stocks are flat-to-lower early in the week. Then look for price to rally higher into the end of the week. Watch for third reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s Wednesday afternoon speaking to dictate the move into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Transports in the driver seat

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports rallied hard last week after giving up a price zone we expected to behave as support two weeks prior. When I last reported two weeks back, we expected the recent breached resistance (12/9ish highs) to be converted into support. Instead sellers cut a bit deeper, working back down to the old range high that held as resistance for years.

That level was strong support however, and the reflexive rally off of us reveals a ton of information. UPS earnings also helped the case. The package delivery company posted record profits last week and rallied more than +4% on the week.

All these things considered, while we may be forming an early range/balance, what is more likely is that Transports are in a discovery up phase.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors behaving quite methodically. This is an extremely extended index, yet it found support at the logical Fibonacci retracement level around 2875. Keep an eye on that level as price consolidated up here along the highs The longer price can work sideways, the better the case for bulls. However, a reversal off the highs could likely start with capturing the 2875 level and holding price below it.

A move lower like that could set off selling across the broad market.

For now…balance.

slightly bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for an eleventh consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Friday, February 5th Exodus flagged hybrid (and technical) overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Friday, February 19th end-of-day.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity.” – Amelia Earhart

Trade simple, trade the plan

 

Comments »

January nearly in the books, now what?

Here is an anecdote about Gamestop that may not have any value, but I want to air it out regardless.

Nephew Raul is 13 now, but two years ago I asked him what he wanted for his birthday. He said, “an Ironman helmet.” I was like, “Where do I even buy something like that?” And he said, without hesitation, “Gamestop.”

I was stunned. Here I thought Gamestop was just like some kind of video game store but apparently my young nephew was buying durable goods there.

Anyhow stuff like that always makes a nerve tingle in the speculator quadrant of my mortal flesh. And usually I do some research then act upon it. But that time I didn’t. I just went to Gamestop and bought him the helmet and moved on with my life. Good uncle, shitty speculator. Selah.

The lesson? When the yoots [sic] speak confidently about publicly traded companies, hunker down and make a serious decision about allocating capital.

Now I would have been two years early to the party. Would I have continued to hold into last week’s feeding frenzy?

We don’t know.

I don’t dwell in those sort of ‘what ifs’ however, because I am too busy working hardt on the next big thing.

Do I have a next big thing right now? Sort of. But my highest conviction investment going into 2021 is heckin’ Del Taco. Not exactly earth rattling stuff. I am working on a big land deal, and boy is it taking forever, but let’s stick to the matter of extracting fiat american from the world of speculative public markets, shall we?

Most of us had big Januarys. Making lots of moneys. Either ‘on paper’ or IRL. Now what? January will be done after this week. Is it our intention to continue pressing into these markets, milking them like coked up robots? Or can we be grateful for our early gains and just like go live a little?

I think you know my answer. I shall be taking my gains and heading to the mountains to spend them on fancy airBNBs, big meals and mountain nature fun. I am going to be off the grid for a while, so this entry will serve as a final logging of my thoughts for a bit. Feel free to leave a comment about your favorite way to spend fiat american. In the meantime, wish me luck as I head into the great snowy peaks of the west.

Raul Santos, January 24th, 2021

And here is my final research report for now. The 322nd edition. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 01/25/21 – 01/29/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.55, medium bull. Equity markets hold the highs, trading sideways, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Then look for price to pivot Wednesday afternoon after the Powell conference.

Be aware of major tech earnings: Microsoft Tuesday after market close, Apple, Tesla and Facebook Wednesday after market close.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Gap and go higher Tuesday into the holiday shortened week. Pro gap up Wednesday is bid higher. Tech heavy NASDSAQ leading while the Russell lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

After two weeks of lagging behind, Tech makes a big move out in front, leading the market higher. Flanked by the quality Discretionary sector. Everything else sort of lower.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed a bit to the positive side of the ledger.

slightly bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Customized screens

Inside Stocklabs every screen has the ability to be customized. Look for the blue plus symbol (+) any time you see a list of stocks, industries, or anything else. Clicking this symbol opens a window that allows for customization of the page.

For example, I modify the Industry page to show me the one week return instead of the default daily return, and add in breadth readings along with volume delta.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Equity markets hold the highs, trading sideways, perhaps with a slight upward bias. Then look for price to pivot Wednesday afternoon after the Powell conference.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Transports attempt a favorite market pastime

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports appear to be converting old resistance into support. This level is likely to hold and lead to a new high. If not, a quick trip back into the old balance zone could catch the markets by surprise.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors continue to discover higher prices.

bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a ninth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Thursday, January 7th Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on the 12-month algo. This bullish cycle ran through Thursday, January 21st end-of-day. Here is the final performance of each major index:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Chance favors the prepared mind.” – Louis Pasteur

Comments »

Way too happy to trade

I dunno. I might not trade for the next few weeks.

First of all winter is finally here. It took long enough. Second I am due to travel over to Lake Tahoe on Wednesday and there just so happens to be some big snow hitting the mountain/lake region.

You must realize, there has been very little snow in the Sierras this year and yet, just maybe, we’ve timed our trip perfectly to have some powder days. I am elated.

I’ll also be meeting my new young nephew, son of our China correspondent, ROBERTO BREGANTE, whilst west…and the prospects of all these events has me in far to good of a mood to potentially sully it trading futures.

You see lads, there are events and people who mean far more to me than economic gain. Two of those things are family and powder days. Put them in the same place and well…good luck putting me to work.

I think finding a passion for something real and tangible can go great lengths in making you a better investors and trader. Gives you perspective and clarity on why you do all these silly things you do to extract fiat american dollars.

The pageantry around transitioning power away from the mean old man to the friendly old man doesn’t even move my meter. However, the women around me seem to be in better spirits and that’s always nice.  Maybe soon they will be up for something daring—like a long night in a cold warehouse drinking hooch while it snows and big speakers wale out metronomic beats for hours on end.

We don’t know.

For now I am content that snow is coming and I am due to ride it with the people who mean the world to me.

Ciao for now.

Raul Santos, January 22nd, 2021

Comments »

Pro gap up // not trading it // why do we work?

Greetings lads. By the looks of it, the NASDAQ is set to open above the prior record high after a barn burner of a globex session. Wall Street seems to be pricing in progress, at least in the pre-market, and with prices at these levels there is not much I feel confident doing at the open.

The higher time frame is likely to be active on the open, either covering shorts, adding to longs, or selling to raise cash. That activity could be erratic at times, and without trading levels to work with up here, I have no way of formulating a trading edge.

Which means I’m not going to trade. There seems to be growing interest lately around why people work. This is good. Having honest conversations about why we work is important to advancing as a species. Why do you work? And this isn’t a question about getting money. Forget that. We are talking about America. Why do you work in America?

You don’t have to. The votes have spoken. We are moving in the direction of universal basic income. That means, in our first world, basic human rights will included food, shelter, education and medical care. None of these things need to be worked for. They will be accessible to all.

Working, commuting, all that stuff, can be very detrimental to one’s health. Many jobs, even ones that currently require college degrees, will be eliminated by automation. If you didn’t have to work, what would you do? Why would you do those things?

These are the types of questions all of us should be meditating on.

Progress has won. The past is the past. Nationalism is dead. We are all earthlings and we’re all going to die. What we choose to do with our brief mortal existence is important. Will it be work? To what end?

Me, I don’t work. I do toil endlessly to grow food that actually has minerals in it. Why? It helps keep my family healthy and might extend our mortal existences by a few years. Also I like how outside work makes me feel—strong and tan.

Why be strong and tan and live longer? Because that means more time to be a ski bum.

Why be a ski bum? Because it makes me feel really, really good when I push my physical limits.

Yes, I am a hedonist.

I also enjoy trading opening bell. Competing in one of the biggest arenas of speculative finance and being good at it bring me joy.

I am a hedonist.

Why do I type these blogs and do all the research stuff? Accountability to my homework makes me a better opening bell trader and I like out competing other agencies and people who possess far more resources than me.

Why?

Because fuck them. Who knows whether they achieved the higher ground through honest or deplorable means, but the laws of large numbers dictate that all things eventually return to the mean. That means the underdogs have potential to rocket higher, overshooting the mean for a bit before reaching some kind of zero gravity, then eventually too reverting to the mean. All while the institutions nervously do their best to sustain flight above the mean. These laws of nature bring me joy.

I am a hedonist.

Anyhow, I am not too proud to know when I have no edge. Today I have no edge. Therefore I will go read books, exercise, peruse the latest seed catalogs, then lean into a nice nap.

Adios.

Raul Santos, January 20th, 2021

Comments »

Nothings happened yet // NASDAQ up a quick +100 // here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday shortened week gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price action during the globex session has not accomplished much despite price being +100 from the Friday close. Sunday evening sellers pushed us a few points below the Friday low before the rest of the session was spent rotating higher. Around 10:30pm New York the Friday high was taken out. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a small gap down that buyers were unable to reclaim all week on the NASDAQ and S&P. Sellers were seen active Thursday afternoon and into Friday. But the Dow and Russell were bullish divergent all week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers were able to resolve the overnight gap during an open two way auction but after briefly spiking about +30 beyond the gap fill heavy sellers stepped in and made a new low on the week. A second low was made before lunch but was met by strong responsive buyers who sent price up through the daily midpoint. After chopping along the topside of the mid fro several hours sellers assumed control of the tape again and we ended the day with sellers campaigning price lower but before a new low could be made market closed for the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to sustain trade above 12,900 setting up a run to 12,964.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up through 13,000 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to tag 13,082.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 12,812. After a bit of a battle they continue to campaign lower, closing the Friday gap down at 12,772.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Mostly neutral

Greetings lads. I have been summoned to a plumbing dilemma over at Elder Raul’s mothership. I went there, shut down the water, then sent Elder Raul to home depot to pick up the part we need for the fix. That gave me enough time to finish the Sunday research.

Most every indicator is neutral except for the Stocklabs hybrid oversold signal. That runs through Thursday. We have earnings from Intel Thursday after the bell.

Monday we’re closed in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. day.

Basically I have little conviction heading into the holiday shortened week.

Last week I could just sit down and if I liked the way the chart looked instantly put three units on in the NASDAQ futures and start working the long while I wrote my report and be done by about 9:45am.

This week is not like last week. I have no clear conviction. That said. If we have open gaps in range, I’ll likely be here working them.

Be sure to tune into the morning reports.

Raul Santos, January 17th 2021

And now the 321st edition of strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 01/18/21 – 01/22/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Markets continue to hold up near the highs. Watch Intel earnings due out Thursday after market close. Earnings from this major chip maker could sway the entire NASDAQ 100.

**U.S. Markets will be closed Monday, January 18th in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King Junior day.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Small gap down into the week that buyers were unable to reclaim on the NASDAQ and S&P. Active sellers Thursday afternoon and into Friday. The Dow and Russell were bullish divergent all week.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech lagged for a second week, flanked by the key discretionary sector. Energy continues to trade independent of the market. Utilities up butt Staples down.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows balanced out last week after skewing bullish two weeks prior. Most industry groups on the list are lower quality. Not much insight to gain from money flows.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

What is Delta Airlines doing?

Delta earnings painted a bleak picture for the airline as folks continue to stay home. One of the interesting developments to their fundamentals is the massive increase to their cash holdings. This can be seen on the Financials page. They went from having $2.65b in cash this time last year to nearly $25b today. Likely government relief cash.  What are they going to do with all that cash?

Meanwhile the NASDAQ transportation index is hovering around all-time highs. All of this situation deserves a bit of our continued focus.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Markets continue to hold up near the highs. Watch Intel earnings due out Thursday after market close. Earnings from this major chip maker could sway the entire NASDAQ 100.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors, Transports both discovery up

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are holding their highs after the Delta earnings and the current picture shows no indication that the uptrend is due to stop.

bullish

See below:

Semiconductors have a clear discovery up in place also.

bullish

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a eighth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Overbought.

On Thursday, January 7th Stocklabs flagged hybrid overbought on the 12-month algo. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Thursday, January 21st end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“To the mind that is still, the whole universe surrenders.” – Lao Tzu

Trade simple, seek clarity over gains

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