iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,956 Blog Posts

NASDAQ up a quick +60 into OPEX week // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ future are higher heading into the week after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range until about 8am New York when buyers stepped in and initiated higher prices. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have 6-month bill and 3-year note auctions at 11:30am and 3- month bill and 10-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week featured a choppy drift higher during holiday-shortened week. Russell 2000 lagged behind all week but ramped strong into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap down in range. After a brief open-two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove higher, driving up through the Thursday high and unto last Wednesday’s range. We ended the week chopping along the Wednesday midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, setting a new record high above 14,883.75 on their way to tagging 14,900.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 14,948.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,811.50. Look for buyers down at 14,751.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Thoughts and research heading into a busy week in the markets

Busy week ahead. Research is updated and I must be brief as there are painters here and I like to work alongside other folks working. Sitting here, doing research, while others toil is not something I feel comfortable with. If a comrade has taken up arms and is toiling than I feel the duty to toil alongside them in solidarity.

But there are a few key things to be aware of heading into next week. The first option expiration of the third quarter is sort of sneaking up quickly on us, what with the holiday and the way the month started on a Thursday. I could see the big players leveraging their resources to put pressure on short-sellers, via a squeeze, and then eventually just chopping back to unchanged by week’s end.

We have Powell set to speak Wednesday and Thursday. His words may serve to pivot the markets.

Major banks are set to report earnings, with the bulk of earnings due out Wednesday morning.

All these factors combined, plus the objective research presented below, leads me to forecast a sideways drift for the first part of the week and then a pivot either higher or lower mid-week.

As always, we’ll take it one day at a time, via the morning reports, unless some unforeseen toiling takes me off the desk.

Okay for now, cheers and trade’em well in the week ahead.

Raul Santos, July 11th 2021

And now the 346th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/12/21 – 07/16/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.65, medium bull.  Sideways drift until bank earnings due out Wednesday morning along with Powell speak pivots the markets into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy drift higher during holiday-shortened week. Russell 2000 lagged behind all week but ramped strong into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Leadership in Utilities gives rise to caution for the bulls. However it was closely flanked by key Tech and Discretionary sectors. Energy continues to trade independently.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed negatively on the week with the only industry groups managing to populate the positive side of the ledger being REITS, suggesting investors are growing cautious. The negative side of the ledger is not showing any major industry groups.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

6-month algo triggered on the 7th, did you go long?

Last week my note was about focusing on executing when the 6-month algo flags oversold, which has been one of the more reliable indicators coming out of Stocklabs lately. Well a few short days later on Wednesday it fired out a signal. I was late but managed to put a TQQQ position on Friday morning.

Will it be a winning trade? We don’t know. But our job is to focus on being above-average at executing the signals generated by our research. Trust the process.

I saw some posters in the Pelican Room going short Friday afternoon. Maybe they have their own system or set of rules. Again, we don’t know. But the most effective way to gain value from Stocklabs is to consistently execute the signals generated by the mother algo.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift until bank earnings due out Wednesday morning along with Powell speak pivots the markets into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Mirror images

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports look more-and-more like they are in a discovery down phase. They do remain on the low-end of a well-established range and could snap higher. We are coming into the week with this key contextual index at the low-end of its pivot region.

See below:

Conversely semiconductors might be going into discovery up. They also might be setting up for a traverse back down through their well-established range. This index is like a mirror image of the Transports. Interesting heading into the first OPEX of the third quarter.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme rose colored sunglasses bullish for a third week after being neutral three weeks back after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for three consecutive weeks after being neutral for the two weeks prior to that after being e[RCS] bullish nine weeks back and RCS bearish ten weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster nineteen weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm drift perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold (6-month)

On Wednesday, July 7th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the six month algo. This bullish cycle runs through July 21st end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“When I told my father I was going to be an actor, he said, “Fine, but study welding just in case.”” – Robin Williams

Trade simple, diversify your income

 

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Wide open // here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper half of Thursday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

There are no economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap down below the prior three days’ ranges. After a tight open-two-way auction outside range buyers stepped in and attempted the reclaim the Tuesday (weekly) low. Sellers rejected the move, sending price down near, but not quite closing the open gap left behind July 1st. Instead responsive buyers stepped in and formed a sharp excess low. This would be the low of the sesion. After chopping along the top-side of the mid until about noon, buyers stepped in and rallied price back up near the Wednesday low. Sellers met this action and sent price back down to the mid, but a late-day ramp propelled prices back near the high into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 14,742.75 pm their way to tagging 14,788.25.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,640.75 and tag the Thursday VPOC at 14,635 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 14,528.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Stretched rally attempts holiday pivot away from record high // here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Thursday in July down a quick -200 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 2am New York when sellers stepped in and began campaigning price lower. Said campaign continued down through Wednesday low around 3:20am and then down to a new weekly low around 5am. Then the campaign continued lower, working down through the gap left behind on 07/02. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out slightly worse than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering around 14,600, below the prior three days’ ranges. Pro gap down.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 11am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up to record highs and after a brief open two-way auction outside range sellers stepped in and drove lower, filling the overnight gap and working to an early range extension down. Responsive buyers were found ahead of the Tuesday midpoint and after rallying back to the daily mid we spent the rest of the session chopping along it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to attempt to reclaim the Tuesday low 14,625. Sellers reject the move setting up a push down through overnight low 14,544. Look for buyers just below at 14,529 and for two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower. Sellers take out 14,529 early on and sustain trade below it, setting up a push down through 14,500. Look for buyers down at 14,450 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers aggressive off the open, reclaim Tuesday low 14,625 setting up a quick run to 14,700. Buyers then continue higher, closing the overnight gap at 14,803 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Drifting higher // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the holiday-shortened week gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range. Price was balanced for the extended Globex session, which began Sunday evening and extended through Monday. Around 6am Tuesday price drifted up and away from the balance and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM services index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured strong buyers early Monday who squeezed prices higher, then we drifted for much of the week before accenting with a rally Friday. All week the Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and a small open drive higher. Responsive sellers faded the early drive but were unable to take out overnight low. Instead buyers stepped in and worked the market into a range extension up before noon and we spend the rest of the afternoon rallying, eventually closing along the high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to buyers to gap-and-go up to 14,800.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 14,864.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,711 then take out overnight low 14,671 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Happy Fourth of July from fintwit’s favorite derelict libertarian

Happy Fourth of July lads. As much of a shitposter as I can be I want you to know I do love this country and so does Elder Raul. He came here when he was twelve with the suit on his back to live with his older sister and he hustled his butt off and now he takes it easy on some remote patch of sand up north in the woods. My clan has accumulated more resources in our 50 years in this country than many americans have done in 100s of years. This would not be possible in any other country and I just want to say thanks.

I have been working so dang good hard since February and at times it has made me a real surly some-bitch. Thank you for bearing with me in this challenging times.

A few more weeks of moving rocks and sanding walls and it looks like I will be able to breathe again. Go back to swimming and pumping iron and taking lots of naps. Again. This country is great.

Once a man liberates himself from the many traps set up by insurance companies, mortgage companies, employers, debt and other webs of insanity spun up by corporate goons this country is a real gem. Vagabonding around and accumulating wealth and resources and in-general doing whatever the heck you want….as long as you don’t want to trade leverage in crypto.

Nope can’t do that…

One of the greatest american pastimes is finding ways to break its laws. Tom Brady managed to buy FTT tokens which speaks volumes to how wonderful america is.

So have an appled pie. Blow off some explosives and gobble down lots of fire roasted animal flesh. Warsh it all down with some cheap swill from Anhisur bush and listen to some Lana Del Rey.

Happy fourth from your dear pal RAUL.

Raul Santos, July 4th 2021

And now the 345th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 07/05/21 – 07/09/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.63, medium bull*.  Strong rally throughout holiday-shortened week. Watch for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to accelerate price action.

U.S. markets will be closed Monday, July 5th in observation of Independence Day

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong buyers early Monday squeezed prices higher, then we drifted for much of the week before accenting with a rally Friday. All week the Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech leading the way. Flanked by discretionary and Health care.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed slightly bearish and the median return was negative on the week. This speaks to the nature of last week’s rally, with most of the upward action being contained to the best-of-the-best stocks like Apple and Alphabet.

It turns out volume delta is a useless data point for the Weekly Strategy Session. It is comparing the one day reading (in our analysis always Friday) with the average of the last 30 days. This is why it is pinned negative on this report, because Friday is lower volume than all the other days of the week.

I have requested a volume delta which compares the weekly volume to the average of the last 30 weeks. That would likely tell a story over time that would make our understanding of money flows much more valuable and actionable. Whether that data is available, we don’t know.

I looked through the entire list of data points available on the industries page and none of them are able to add value to the Weekly Strategy Session.

That said, partitioning the 1-week return the way we do still provides valuable insight. Whether we gain more relevant data is up to the Stocklabs development team.

Money flows are slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Focus on executing the 6-month oversold signal

The 6-month oversold algo is proving to be a solid indicator to trade from. Consistent execution of this algo during 2021 has generated a solid return. It has been one of the only signals we’re seeing. I will be adding it to my toolkit going forward.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Strong rally throughout holiday-shortened week. Watch for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to accelerate price action.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Pivotal levels

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports might lose the low-end of range. More likely we see buyers rally up off of range lows.

See below:

Semiconductors are flagging along the top-end of range. This could result in a fresh leg of discovery up. This chart will be on one of my screens all week and providing key context to the overall market.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme rose colored sunglasses bullish for a second week after being neutral two weeks back after being extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias for three consecutive weeks after being neutral for the two weeks prior after being e[RCS] bullish eight weeks back and RCS bearish nine weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster eighteen weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm drift perhaps with a slight upward bias USUALLY but when the reading goes over +1 we expect a bit more strength/rally.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold (6-month)

On Thursday, June 17th Stocklabs went hybrid oversold on the six month algo. This bullish cycle runs through July 1st end of day. Here is the final performance of each major index.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“You might as well like yourself. Think about all the time you’re going to have to spend with you.” – Jerry Lewis

Trade simple, enjoy your duty

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NSADAQ coming into July down -15 // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are heading into the first day of the third quarter down a touch after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, first pressing higher and making a new record high then traversing the entire Wednesday range and taking out the lows. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out a bit better than forecasts. No move in price really. Likely investors are more keen on hearing the NFP data tomorrow morning. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have PMI manufacturing at 9:45am, ISM manufacturing and construction spending at 10am and then 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down in range. A slow open two-way auction accomplished very little. Eventually we made a range extension up late in the morning but never managed to close the overnight gap. Instead price probed below overnight low a bit and found a responsive bid then essentially marked time, walking all over the midpoint in an apparent local-to-local chop.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up at 14,553 then continue higher, up through overnight high 14,606.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,498.25 setting up a tag of 14,470.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 14,400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ heading into month-end flat // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of June with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range. Price was balanced above the Tuesday range until about 2am New York when sellers reclaimed the range. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out slightly better than expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering up near the Tuesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and farm prices at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up, the second consecutive print of this day-type. The cash session began with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the gap and took out overnight high during a brief open two-way auction in range. Then there was a battle along the daily midpoint for a few hours which eventually gave way to a rally during the lunch hour. Said rally continued, grinding to new heights right up into settlement and spiking a bit higher into settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 14,598.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,527 setting up a tag of 14,500.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 14,470.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Tech shorts squeezed Monday // here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last Tuesday in June down about-20 after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Monday’s range after briefly exceeding Monday high around 7:45pm New York. As we approach cash open price is hovering about in the upper quad.

On the economic calendar today we have case-shiller home price index at 9am followed by consumer confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap-and-go style drive up shortly after opening bell which saw price to a new all-time high. Then we spent several hours churrning higher before a bit of selling saw price fade a bit lower. Price could not return to the midpoint however before buyers became initiative and made a new high. We ended the session near the high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap to 14,503.75 on their way to taking out overnight high 14,519.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 14,468.75. Look for buyers just below at 14,447.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers reverse the Monday short squeeze by taking out 14,447.50 early on and sustaining trade below it, setting up a quick move down to 14,400.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +60 into final Monday in June // here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are heading into the final three days of June gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. price was balanced overnight, balancing while steadily ascending up through last Friday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering up near last Friday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a week-long rally that kicked off early Monday with a strong conviction buying drive shortly after opening bell. The Russell 2000 lead the way suggesting risk tolerance remains elevated. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day which is anything but normal, occurring a bit less than 20% of the time. Normal days typically feature a dynamic first hour of trade which sets a wide range, allowing the rest of the session’s range to be contained within initial balance. It suggest the higher time frame is not active. The day began with a gap up in range, just above the Thursday midpoint. After an open two-way auction sellers stepped in and drove down into the gap fill then briefly exceeded the Thursday low before a sharp excess low formed. Price then bounced back up to the Thursday midpoint, sellers defended, and we spent the rest of the day chopping below the daily mid but never going range extension down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging 14,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers probe beyond all-time high 14,422 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 14,324. Look for buyers down at 14,300 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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