iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,502 Blog Posts

NASDAQ up a quick +60, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along inside the lower quadrant of Monday’s range until about 3:30am New York, when buyers stepped in and began to campaign for higher prices.  As we approach cash open, price continues to probe higher and is currently pegged above the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell talking policy in Chicago starting at 9:55am.  Today is a good day to have a quality squawk service for monitoring that event.  Also durable/factory goods orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The week began with a gap down and drive lower which successfully closed the 3/11 open gap.  It also discovered a strong responsive bid.  Said bidders took us back to the daily midpoint and we chopped along it for several hours before another wave of selling came through.  Despite two more significant legs lower, including one which resolved the open gap left behind on 2/11, responsive buyers were still engaging the tape.  We ramped into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap down to 6995.25.  From here buyers step in and work us higher, through overnight high 7066.25 to tag 7074.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we poke up to 7074.50 off the open, find strong sellers who work us lower, closing overnight gap 6995.25 and continuing lower through overnight low 6981.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, sustain trade above 7075 setting up a move to target 7100 then the open gap at 7135.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ continues to probe 3/11 conviction day, here’s the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, extending the selling seen last Friday and continuing to probe down into the 03/11 conviction buy day’s range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing along with construction spending at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week markets worked lower.  The holiday shortened week kicked off Tuesday with early buying across the board.  Said buyers were overrun by Tuesday afternoon.  We chopped through Thursday before sellers stepped in again Friday.  The NASDAQ showed slight signs of bullish divergence along the way.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap down and slight push lower before responsive buyers stepped in and took the market range extension up.  Said buyers could not reclaim the Wednesday/Thursday balance, instead initiative sellers (initiative relative to Thursday close, responsive relative to Friday open) stepped in and eventually worked price range extension down.  We ended the day on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push off the open and trade up through overnight high 7126.75.  Sellers reject a move back into Friday’s range 7129.25 (resisting up to 7140) and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7066.75 setting up a move to close the 03/08 open gap at 7053.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers regain Friday range and sustain trade above 7140 setting up a move to 7169.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Bears owned May, maybe now we make to kill the bears

How very nice of May to end on a Friday, capping off the quarter very cleanly.

Bears really cut loose on equities last week after sort of just playing with their food for most of the month.

The model lads, the one that guides every decision I make, is signalling BUNKER BUSTER.  This signal calls for an acceleration to the downside followed by a sharp formation of an excess low—a low that holds for many many weeks.

This one maybe hold for all of June, once it comes.

The last set of Bunker Busters hit on 12/9 and 12/23 of 2018.  I think we all remember how that played out ::insert gif of The Rock rolling eyes::

I made a promise to myself that I would not attempt to trade the Bunker Buster after the last one was too darn stressful.  Instead I will begin an accumulation campaign that will likely continue throughout the entire month of June.

Starting with the rebalance of my motif quant and an allotment to that scheme.  Also I will likely buy more of the best companies: TSLA, TWTR, WMT, MTCH first then maybe dribble down to AMZN and GOOGL if I’m not completely cash poor.

People talk about their fad diets and how they’ve sheathed off 20 pounds in a flash.  I find it vile and impulsive.  If you want to be lean buy five to twenty acres of land and work it until your legs give out.  Pair that with a commitment to long term investment strategies and you have the recipe for starvation and nice, tight muscles.

I came into the end of Q1 real lean.  I’ve grinded through Q2 on a war path. And now it is June, and everyone knows June is RAUL’S MONTH.

Raul Santos, June 2nd, 2019

Exodus members, the 237th edition of Strategy Session is live.  This is a key report make sure you give it a read.

 

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NASDAQ in balance, nobody is here, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was choppy overnight, briefly trading below Friday’s low before coming into balance.  as we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am, 6-month T-bill and 2-year Note auctions at 11:30am, and 3-month T-bill and 5-year Note auctions at 1pm.

Last week featured methodical, almost programmic selling early in the week.  Several major indices closed their 05/13 open gap nearly to the tick before reversing higher late in the week.  NASDAQ came under the most selling pressure while the Dow demonstrated relative strength.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap up above Thursday’s range.  An early attempt higher discovered responsive sellers inside last Monday’s range.  Said sellers reclaimed the Thursday range and made short work of closing the overnight gap before price worked back up to kiss the midpoint, find initiative sellers, and we eventually closed back down at low-of-day, right near the Thursday close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7315.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 7291.25.  Look for buyers just below here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers close the gap down at 7266.75.  Look for buyers down at 7242 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 7354.75 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to tag the 7400 century mark.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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There’s something happening and it has me sharking

Summer officially hit the north last Thursday.  It greeted us with a sunrise thunderstorm featuring long and ominous rumbles interspersed by quick flashes of light that would make a more primitive man think he’d upset the gods.

I’ve spent part of the Memorial weekend taking a walk through the underbelly of Detroit, dancing with the freaks and outcasts in a swampy pit underneath the train tracks.  I’ve seen real happiness, and much to the surprise of most, it doesn’t require exchanging little green pieces of paper for shiny things.  Often, at least here, it can be achieved by listening to loud, repetitive music that sounds quite like an assembly line.

It has always seemed like robotics have a way of hypnotizing man.  They offer relief from monotony, but at what price?  Less and less ‘work’ to sustain is done by hand, and we’re left with a growing population of disenfranchised shitposters lingering around on Facebook and 4chan sharing racist memes.  These people need to be kept busy, hypnotized, sat in front of a machine for eight hours (with a one hour union break) then sent to a home where nature is constantly attempting to overtake them.

The suburban yard is a menacing beast if left untamed.  The bloody grass can grow nearly a foot a week and since none of us keep livestock, this property is a useless and high maintenence ornament.

There’s a subculture taking shape right now in Detroit, in areas still forgotten by the financiers and their banker money.  A place where nobody is plopping ‘modern’ condominiums. I hope these pirates manage to claim a decent chunk of property before its all made to look like suburban hell, what with the bleak strip malls and big box retailers.

The king of Detroit real estate had a stroke Sunday morning.  There is uncertainty in the air.  I do wish him health and safety and hope he makes a full recovery.  But the shark in me also senses change in the air.  If not an objective opportunist, then what good is it that I spend every day sharpening my speculative knife?  I intend to gain as much wealth as possible during my brief stay in this sack of mortal fluid on a rock orbiting an old star.  Real wealth.  Land. Machinery.  By means of capital gains and providing liquidity to the NASDAQ 100.

As for the markets, I expect buyers to engage early on then more chop into month-end.  Then it’s June, and as we all know, June is RAUL’S MONTH.

Now I am off to dance to loud repetitive techno beats for 12 hours.  Check out my instragram for some looks along the way @vincalim.

Exodus members, the 236th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

 

 

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NASDAQ down a quick -80, here is the Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price made a unidirectional move lower overnight, dropping and accelerating down through the week’s lows.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the open gap left behind on Monday, May 13th.

Also on the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down out of range that buyers quickly bid up at the open.  Buying continued through the early morning, closing the overnight gap before sellers stepped in and formed a sharp excess high.  This led to us going range extension down ahead of the FOMC minutes.  At 2pm the minutes came out and buyers stepped back in but were eventually overrun again by selling late in the session.  The day ended with price in the lower quadrant of the day’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 7400.  Look for sellers up at 7407 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 7428.25 then continue higher, up through overnight high 7434.75.  Look for sellers up at 7444 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7316 to tag the 7300 century mark.  Look for buyers down at 7272 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ bid up overnight, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up beyond the Monday high before coming into balance.  Then around 5am price traded up through the Monday high again.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Monday high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down into the week (just like the prior two weeks).  And early drive lower discovered a responsive bid and we spent the rest of the morning auctioning higher.  The daily mid held as support for most of the day until late-day selling pressured the tape back down near the lows.  Sellers were unable to press the market neutral.  Instead we ramped back to the midpoint into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7467.75 setting up a move to target the Friday gap at 7511.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to the naked VPOC at 7571 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7392.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7385.25.  Look for buyers down at 7334 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down a quick -100 into Monday (again), here’s the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap down for the third consecutive week after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced until about 4am (again) when sellers stepped in and drove price lower.  As we approach cash open price is trading inside of last Wednesday’s lower quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with a big gap down into Monday, as did the week prior. Last week we saw weakness through Monday then buyers began to auction higher Tuesday and through Thursday afternoon.  Then sellers stepped back in.  Overall, choppy volatility.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down and after a brief two-way auction price worked higher to close the overnight gap and tag the Thursday naked VPOC before sellers returned.  We chopped through most of the afternoon before sellers drove back down to the lows near the end of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to 7334.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers take us down to tag the 7300 century mark.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7511.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Free Exodus Strategy Session, it calls for more chop

It is well past the time of day when I normally conduct financial research, and earlier I subjected myself to 75 minutes of hatha-style contorting.  Pair that with intermittent downpours of hot rain, and the act of preparing this Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session was a bit of a sluggish go.  It’s still solid research.  When I began publishing my findings into Exodus, I was met with an issue at the private entryway behind the paywall enjoyed by iBC elites.  Perhaps The Fly has revoked my access card.  In any case, I was forced to make an executive decision to put the report live outside the paywall, in the ghettos of iBankCoin where public conversation regularly drifts to violence and impulse.

Therefore you have, you all have unfettered access to my weekly research.

For the c-suite types roaming about these back allied streets, who need to return to turning tricks or whatever it is you all do, the executive summary is sufficient reading.  It sums up, in as few words as needed, what I expect to happen over the next five trading days.

Enjoy this 235th edition of the Strategy Session on the house, gyarrrr.

Raul Santos, May 19th 2019

—————————————-

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.08, neutral.  More chop.  Look for price to mark time via volatile price action that accomplishes little directional discovery.  Watch for the third reaction after the FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to provide direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Big gap down into Monday for the second consecutive week. Monday closed week but the rest of the week was spent discovering higher prices.

The performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Rotation into risk averse sectors

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Exodus [PPT 2.0] streamlines how we can research the individual behavior of each industry and how it pertains to overall market sentiment.

Using the Industries screen, we can filter for the Median Return [1 week] of each industry.  I have established an arbitrary -/+ 3% cutoff for qualifying industries of interest.

Money flows skewed bullish in a subtle way, with many key driver industries populating the positive side of the ledger.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Exodus ACADEMY

Still on the bearish side of  ‘Hybrid Chg %’

I have found it extremely useful to monitor the ‘Hybrid Chg %’ column on the Historical tab, which is found under the Market drop down menu.

That big -12.15 reading printed on March 22nd dropped off page 1 last Tuesday.  Then Friday May 3rd, Exodus printed a big plus 10.

But only a few short days later an even bigger negative 10 hit.

The data point is yet to be taken out, despite some conviction buy days Wednesday and Thursday.

CAUTION

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Bias Book:

The following biases were formed using basic price action and volume profile analysis. By objectively observing these actual attributes of the market we gain a sense of the overall market context. To quantify the effectiveness of this approach, each of the 4 equity indexes (/ES, /NQ, /YM, and /TF) has been assigned a fixed long/short target using a standard 14-period ATR. Each week there will be an outcome of win, loss, or timed stop on all four indexes. The first bracket level hit is deemed the winner in the event that both sides are tagged. This will be tracked and included in the Exodus Strategy Session.

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

[Note: All levels are as quoted on the front month future contract (currently June 2019) by the IQFeed Data Servers. Prices may differ slightly from your data provider. If you do not have a platform which provides real-time futures quotes, please click here for a free (but limited) alternative.]

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Compression Watch: Semiconductors fall back into balance, Transports balance out

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports seemed to find buyers below the key support level lost two weeks back, and the index now looks to be back in balance.

See below:

The semiconductor index lost a support level we expected to hold and are now back inside a wide balance area dating back more than a year.  Expect the levels slightly lower to behave like a magnet for price.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias Model: neutral

Bias model is neutral for a second consecutive week after six consecutive bullish weeks.

Here is the current spread:

Vi. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Pay attention to what’s in front of you—the principle, the task, or what’s being portrayed.” – Marcus Aurelius

Trade simple, handle every trade at your best

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NASDAQ recovers Monday midpoint, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher mostly overnight after a brief probe down below Monday’s low.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Monday midpoint.

There are no important economic events scheduled today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a pro gap down below the Friday range.  Buyers attempted back into range early on but were rejected away from it.  Sellers then slowly discovered lower prices, eventually tagging 7300 before two way trade ensued.  We closed near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7399.75 triggering a move up to 7507.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and trade down to 7332 before two way chop begins.  Chop eventually gives way to more selling, down through overnight low 7290.  Look for buyers down at 7271.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 7609.75 closing the Friday open gap.

Levels:

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