iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,915 Blog Posts

Balance overnight in the NASDAQ // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range after briefly probing below it around 1am New York. As we approach cash open price is slightly above the Tuesday close.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 20-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a slight gap down in range that buyers quickly resolved shortly after ht open. Said early buyers managed to probe a bit beyond the Monday midpoint before the auction stalled out and reversed. Sellers pushed an early range extension down and swiftly pressed down through Monday low. The sellers managed to work price down to levels unseen since two Fridays back before noon, and then we spent the rest of the session chopping along the lower half of the day’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for the sell discovery continues, tagging 13,687 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers to press higher, trading up through overnight high 13,788.50 on the way to tagging 13,800.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 13,836.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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4/20 NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 5:30am New York when sellers stepped in and probed down below Monday low. Since then price has reclaimed Monday range and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Monday range.

On the economic calendar today we have a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down in range that buyers drove into off the open. Said buyers could not close the overnight gap before being met by strong responsive sellers who drove down below last Thursday/Friday low. After a bit of congestion along last Wednesday’s naked VPOC sellers held the mid and pressed a new daily low, effectively closing the Wednesday gap before discovering a responsive bid. The rest of the day was spent chopping before a late day ramp saw price nearing the bottom-side of the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 13814 setting up a tag of 18,000. Look for buyers down at 13,788 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,896.75 then tag 13,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 14,000 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. price was balanced overnight, first poking up above the Friday high then descending down through most of the Friday range. As we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quadrant of last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we ahve 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we saw a choppy Monday. Then a rally Tuesday. Afternoon sellers Wedneday. And then a strong rally into the weekend. NASDAQ price action lagged a bit, despite out performing on a percentage basis. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up just a bit beyond Thursday range. Sellers quickly drove into the open and resolved the gap and continued lower, briefly probing below the Thursday midpoint before popping back above it and chopping along the mid for a few hours. After lunch buyers worked up and away from the mid but stalled before going range extension up. Instead we threw back to the mid once more, buyers defended, and the late-day ramp ended up putting us into an range extension up. We ended near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 14,019. From here buyers continue higher, taking out overnight high 14,052.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers probe below Friday low 13,953.75 setting up a run down to 13,900. Look for buyers just below at 13,875 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 13,831 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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An attempt to anchor the old ego back to reality

Last week and the weekend were really something. Around Tuesday I kept saying that I, “struck the blarney stone,” which makes no sense. One kisses the blarney stone, and upon kissing it is mystically endowed with eloquence and persuasiveness.

In my brain I think I was making a Moses reference, when he was supposed to talk the rock into giving his people water but he bashed it with a stick instead and it gave water righty-o but then he had to roam the desert for like idk 20 years. But I was instilling it with some Irish luck, because I pushed my agenda on some fine folks and they responded kindly and my projects finally caught some traction. Around Tuesday.

Anyhow, then doge went bananas and sort of sent me for a spin after making quite the impression on my net worth. Suddenly, the doge I hold is catching up to the fiat american value of my dear TSLA position.

But in reality nothing has changed. I still wear 18 dollar Unionbay joggers every day with beat up vibram barefoot shoes that look like rags but make my old hips feel okay, and at night I either eat giant plates of sauteed vegetable or Del Taco drive thru all whist drinking cheap hooch.

I am reading The White Album by Joan Didion right now and it is the finest non-fiction I’ve read since the pandemic began. I want to share an exerpt from the chapter titled In Hollywood because it resonated with my speculative work and odd mentality of late:

“The place makes everyone a gambler. Its spirit is speedy, obsessive, immaterial. The action itself is the art form, and is described in aesthetic terms: “A very imaginative deal,” they say, or, “He write the most creative deals in business.” There is in Hollywood, as in all cultures in which gambling is the central activity, a lowered sexual energy, an inability to devote more than token attention to the preoccupations of the society outside. The action is everything, more consuming than sex, more immediate than politics; more important always than the acquisition of money, which is never, for the gambler, the true point of the exercise.”

I talk on the telephone to an agent, who tells me that he has on his desk a check made out to a client for $1,275,000, the client’s share of first profits on a picture now in release. Last week, in someone’s office, I was shown another such check, this one made out for $4,850,000. Every year there are a few such checks around town. An agent will speak of such a check as being, “on my desk,” or “on Guy McElwaine’s desk,” as if the exact physical location lent the piece of paper its credibility. One year they might be the Midnight Cowboy and Butch Cassidy checks, another year the Love Story and Godfather checks.

In a curious way these checks are not “real,” not real money in the sense that a check for a thousand dollars can be real money; no one “needs” $4,850,000, nor is it really disposable income. It is instead the unexpected payoff on a dice rolled a year or two before, and its reality is altered not only by the time lapse but by the fact that no one ever counted on the payoff. A four-million-dollar windfall has the aspect only of Monopoly money, but the actual pieces of paper which bear such figures have, in the community, a totemic significance. They are totems of the action…”

I think I need to get outside more man. I need to regain a pure sense of why I take to the speculative markets, day-and-day, methodically extracting fiat american dollars from the global financial complex. I know I’ve reiterated my purpose here a hundred times (land, cement, greenhouses, solar, etc) but I need to feel it viscerally, down in my plumbs for real. All this mouse click money has me a bit out of touch. I deserve to be successful and consistent. I work hard. I just want to make sure I remember the purpose.

Raul Santos, April 18th 2021

And now the 334th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/19/21 – 04/23/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.80, medium bull*.  Sideways drift, perhaps with slight upward bias. Then look for Intel earnings Thursday after-market-close to put direction into the tape heading into the weekend.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy Monday. Rally Tuesday. Afternoon sellers Wedneday. Strong rally into the weekend. NASDAQ lagged a bit.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

After two solid weeks of sector rotations, with quality tech and discretionary leadership, the lowest quality sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare) were out front last week. Discretionary did manage to flank them.

neutral.

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Six weeks back we had major buy flows. Three weeks back we saw follow through on them. Then we had two big money flow pushes to the buy side. Two weeks back was balanced.

Last week skewed slightly negative.

Median return last week was over +75 basis points and volume delta over the last 30 days remains quite negative (-41%).

No word yet on having 1-week volume delta added to the screener.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

When IndexModel logs a bias spread greater than +1 that tends to be a bullish signal. The beginning of the week has 50/50 odds directionally, but the later we go into the week the more the bullish statistics kick in.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift, perhaps with slight upward bias. Then look for Intel earnings Thursday after-market-close to put direction into the tape heading into the weekend.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors still flag along the highs, likelihood of more discovery up increases

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are maybe coming into balance. Long term discovery up remains in tact.

See below:

Semiconductors still flagging along the highs. The longer they can hold these highs the more bullish it becomes. This industry group is becoming the highlight of policy lately, and is therefore subject to elevated geopolitical risk going forward.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme rose colored sunglasses for a second consecutive week after being neutral Two weeks back and having flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses three weeks back after being neutral four weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster seven weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias. With a bias spread over +1 we expect buyers to pressure the tape higher late into the week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“If you quit once it becomes a habit. Never quit.” Michael Jordan

Trade simple, dedication

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Curious Sunday observation

I’ll have my usual philosophical Sunday entry, along with the full Strategy Session up in a bit. But I wanted to drop a quick note about an interesting observation I just made. Since switching my research over from Exodus to cocklabs back in October, the bias scores generated by IndexModel have been moving nearly in lock-step with the hybrid/technical algo scores inside Stocklabs. Until these last three weeks. These last three weeks have seen the line diverge. Check it out, starting on April 4th Indexmodel has grown more-and-more bullish while algo score remain slightly bearish:

What does it mean? We don’t know.

It will be interesting to see how this abnormality in recent data resolves, and whether occurrences of this nature continue to happen, and if we can derive an objective means of action based off of it in the future.

Okay for now, back to work on the Strategy Session. Stay tuned.

Raul Santos, April 18th 2021 9:40am New York

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Can’t get a good read // staying on the sidelines

It could be all this moderna juice dribbling throughout my blood system or it could be that I took Claratin-D at 7pm and had a meth-head insomnia session filled with twitter addiction and soil research. Or it could be that we have a pretty big gap up just a touch below all-time highs but within the prior day (double distribution trend down) range. That is a tricky set up.

But all these powers combined tell me I’d better not trade today. I’m old, lads, nearly 36, and in my many years a’speculating I’ve become inclined to know when the cards are stacked against me.

The humongous gains my accounts made yesterday in the wide world of decentralized finance sent me on a hubris climb. Now my prop is roaring away, screaming really, but my ship is not gaining any more altitude.

She needs to stall, dip down, gain some speed and right her course. My psyche that is.

So I’m going to take it real easy like. Maybe head up to the local diner, flash my vaccine passport, then sip coffee whilst watching the news teevee. Then idk probably poke around in the garden for a bit. Take a nap. Bake some bread and then read some Joan Didion. I live a life of wealth and class and leisure.

Trade-em well lads. Here are my screens heading into today, for whatever that is worth:

Raul Santos, April 15th 2021

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No trading report // headed to CVS for my second vaccine

There is not much for me to do with the NASDAQ up at these levels, and I have several matters to attend to today not the least of which is having the second Moderna inoculation, therefore I shall not be trading or posting a trading report today.

The reason I have opted into the vaccine program is simple—I seek out and engage any opportunity to signal my virtue over the smooth-brained conservatards who suck down pound-after-pound of bird meat while typing their greasy-fingered delusions onto the internet. Solar panels. Organic gardens. LGBQT fund raisers. Bill Gates. Electric cars. The New York Times. Big Tech stocks. Science. And so on.

I intend to carry a laminated vaccine card and brandish it readily to every single clerk, doorman, barkeep, stranger, hobo, to let them know I am a care bear who goes with the swirls. Vibin’ for the sake of vibin and signaling we’re all going to be FINE.

Whether or not someone else chooses to vaccinate, I couldn’t care less. My life is one of privilege. Where I’m surrounded by folks with a lot of class who don’t walk around with rude’tudes. Little oases of culture in a city on the verge of anarchy. The only time I really deal with macho shit heads is at hardware stores and driving between the oasises (oasisseas?).

Drugs are a big part of my life. Experimentation is important to the evolutionary process. Modifying my RNA is the most exciting test since taking a heroic dose of LSD at a masquerade.

Mushrooms show you what you need to see. If you have demons in your psyche, messed up things you’ve done as a mortal, well, you gone be confronted by them. Can you show mercy and be compassionate and forgiving? Nice. Maybe expand that energy to others. And everyone. When you’re ready.  Now if you’ve been frolicking around the secret enchanted broccoli forests, healing birds and shit, well, the mushrooms are going to open your eyes to the entire universe because they’re diggin’ your vibe man.

I try so heckin’ hard not to stoop to the level of these paranoid hicks still flying ten Trump flags on their 10-acer lawns.

“mY goVeneRs aN idIot”

If you spot it. You got it.

I do better in the city. Isolation of the “Police Lives Matter” crowd into bum towns way out on the outer fringes of rural America, where they can festoon their trash around the lawn and fly special flags in peace is sufficient punishment for these wannabe Vic Mackeys. Their leader is banished.  That 70-something fat man full of hamburgers and hate was excommunicated from the world of policy. The ethos of hate is fragmented and scattered, alone and without a signal. Like wickies in a broken lighthouse, desperately seeking ways to rekindle their Handmaid’s Tale flame. And us city folk are listening to James Brown, eating the best cuisine in the world, doing our yoga stretches all naked in hot rooms, and rave dancing until the birds start singing.

What’s next?

Weed—federally legal. Universal basic income—inevitable. Jobs in accounting, transportation, and more—automated away. Graduates of higher learning institutions—debt erased.

Wake up or be relegated to the boon sticks by the woke.

Now I am off for my apex predator breakfast—COFFEE.

Lunch—Soylent.

Dinner—Moderna#2 with a side salad.

Raul Santos, April 14th 2021

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Gunning for all-time high, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up beyond yesterday and last week’s highs after an overnight ession featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 8:30am New York. Whether or not CPI data came out at the top-end of expectations at that time led to the rally that followed is debatable. But since then we’ve rallied nearly to all-time highs.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The session began with a gap down in range. Buyers poked higher during opening swing and filled the overnight gap before sellers stepped in. Said sellers eventually pushed us into an early range extension down which was met with strong responsive buying. Price then chopped along the top of the day’s midpoint for a few hours before rallying into a neutral print. Price checked back to the mid once more, than ramped into the close to end near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a probe up beyond all-time high 13,863.75 and a tag of 13,900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally to 14,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into overnight inventory and reclaim Monday high 13,828.75 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move down through overnight low 13,772.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Small gap down in range to start the week ;-) here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second full week of April with a small gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Friday’s range. As we approach cash open, price hovers in this upper quad.

On the economic calendar today we have 6-mont t-bills and 3-year notes up for auction at 11:30am, 3-month t-bills and 10-year notes auctioning at 1pm and a Treasury statement at 2pm.

Last week featured a strong rally Monday. Then a consolidation of the gains through Wednesday. A gap higher Thursday and continuation rally through Friday and into the weekend. Russell 2000 lagged. Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down in range. Sellers made an early attempt lower, probing below the Thursday range briefly before a sharp,excess low formed. Price shot back through the mid, checked back to it, then rallied to close the overnight gap and make a new high on the week. Price flagged along the high for several hours before ramping higher into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,809.50. From there buyers continue higher, up to probe beyond all-time high 13,878.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 13,767.75 and tag 13,753 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 13,700 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

 

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Still bullish

G’dday lads. Not much on my mind so I shall keep this brief.

You have, all of you have, perhaps 70 productive years on this rare planet we call earth. Consider what you leave in your wake.

Not so much as legacy, but in the words of Franklin D. Roosevelt, “The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself.” What are you leaving behind besides poop? What are your other waste streams? What will you leave behind.

On that note, I must be off. I have undertaken a large soil remediation project and with the power of my brain I intend to right what my predessors have wronged, or at least prove the gen-pop wrong in a strange new way.

This is what I do. I challenge conventional wisdom. I make people money. And I fuck.

Models have a slight bullish tilt heading into next week.

Raul Santos, April 11th, 2021

And now the 333rd edition of Strategy Session:

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 04/12/21 – 04/16/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.60, medium bull*. Sideways drift, with any big moves in either direction being faded back to unchanged by week’s end.

Major bank earnings due out Wednesday and Thursday before market open may have an impact on overall price action.

*IndexModel flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias, see Sections III and IV.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Strong rally Monday. Consolidation of the gains through Wendesday. Gap higher Thursday and continuation rally through Friday and into the weekend. Russell 2000 lagged.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Another week of out performance from key Tech and Discretionary sectors. Everything else besides Energy flanking alongside with small gains.

bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Five weeks back we had major buy flows. It wasn’t until two weeks back that we saw follow through on them. But now we have. The last two big money flow pushes have been to the buy side.

Last week was totally balanced. Neutral.

Median return last week a bit less than +50 basis points  and volume delta over the last 30 days is quite negative.

No word yet on having 1-week volume delta added to the screener.

Money flows are neutral.

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses

This signal comes from the market model I built and managed which is called IndexModel. It is based on auction theory.

When it goes extreme rose colored sunglasses we historically have seen calm action which is usually better suited for stock picking then it is for futures trading.

That said, when the signal is live I will definitely be trading any gap down in range for the fill and then be playing to take out either (or both) overnight high and range extension up.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Sideways drift, with any big moves in either direction being faded back to unchanged by week’s end.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors flag along the highs, more discovery?

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports continue to steadily discovering new higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors performed a mini discovery phase up out of recent balance and are now flagging along the highs. Heading into next week this is anything but bearish.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is flagging extreme rose colored sunglasses after being neutral last week and having  flagged extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses two weeks back after being neutral three weeks before that after signaling Bunker Buster six weeks ago after being neutral for the thirteen weeks prior to that.

Extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses calls for a calm sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“it is unwise to be too sure of one’s own wisdom.” Mahatma Gandhi

Trade simple, stay curious

 

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