iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,502 Blog Posts

Strategy session live, Monday trading report (hopefully) soon

Good morning.  Quick note.  I just published the Exodus Strategy Session that normally airs on Sunday.  The model is neutral after six consecutive bullish weeks.  I think there may be a signal developing when the model goes bullish that many weeks in a row, but for now, that is simply an observation.

Models are calling for volatile chop until we hear earnings out of NVIDIA and Walmart Thursday afternoon.  We also have Alibaba Wednesday morning, which is an interesting barometer of China amid all this tariff nonsense talk.

Tariffs are not nonsense it’s just that macroeconomics are not actionable no matter how smart we sound when we talk about them.

Trump tweets are actionable if you are at the turrets when they hit and you trade the reaction.

Regarding last week’s selling.  I am of the belife that the selling pressure seen last week has nothing to do with geopolitics. It is more a factor of basic market mechanics.  The rich private equity goons of the west coast are unloading billion’s worth of equity supply onto the markets.  Participants are doing their best to absorb it, but only so much money is funneled into the equity complex every pay period from W-2 chumps.  This is causing imbalance.

Pair that with the CME launching a wildly successful new set of index futures, and you have a nice recipie for volatility.

Ignore the noise.  Focus on the auction.

I have to attend to a few non-stock-market-related matters then I will be back to assess the state of the market after the big boys duke it out.

PRO GAP DOWN

Trade’em well.

Raul Santos, May 13th 2o19

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NASDAQ slow trend down overnight, here’s the Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down into levels unseen since 04/04.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the 4/4 highs.

On the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairmen Powell delivering opening remarks at a community development conference in DC along with initial/continuing jobless claims data at 8:30am.  There are 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30 year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction.  Chop eventually gave way to buyers working a full gap fill before we balanced in a tight range above the midpoint for most of the day. Then, late in the afternoon sellers drove price lower, ending the day just below session mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to close the open gap at 7518.75.  Look for buyers down at 7513 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and reclaim the Wednesday low 7600 setting up a move to target 7622.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation.  Look for price to slash down through 7500.  Look for buyers down at 7643.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down -40 into Wednesday after volatile night session, here the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced most of the overnight session until about 5:45am when sellers pushed into price.  Said selling was unable to take out the Tuesday low before discovering a responsive buyer.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a 10-yeat note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down below the Monday midpoint.  After a brief two-way open auction, price drove lower, taking out the Monday low early on before beginning to trend lower.  We trended down to 7600 before a ramp higher set up into closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7674.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7698 before stalling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 7700 setting up a move to target 7731 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7602 setting up a move to target 7557 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ choppy but balanced overnight, here’s the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was choppy overnight, real choppy (90 point range, circumnavigated thrice) bouncing along inside of the Monday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year note auction at 1pm followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap down that was driven by news from the ‘Trade Wars’ battlefront.  A quick poke below last Thursday’s low during the opening two-way auction discovered a strong responsive bid and sparked a drive higher.  The drive puttered out right at the weekly lower ATR band 7786.50 and retraced a bit before buyers became initiative (initiative relative to Monday’s open, responsive relative to Friday’s close) and put together a second drive higher, trading up beyond 7800 before ultimately settling into the century mark by end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 7786.50 before we tighten up and chop for the rest of the day.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7719.25 to set up a move to target 7700.  Look for buyers down at 7683.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 7807.25 setting up a move to close the weekly gap up at 7865 before balance ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Longs liquidated on ‘Trade War’ update, here’s the Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Globex gapped down into the Sunday evening open and proceeded to liquidate down to a new two-week low before coming into balance.  The move is news driven, after the White House went on offense in the ongoing tariff talks with China.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of last Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy early on, ultimately giving way to sellers Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning before finding a strong responsive bid.  Buyers then took the markets trend up into all of Friday, closing the week out at the highs.  The Russell 200o demonstrated divergent strength throughout the week.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up.  The day began with a gap up to near the top of Thursday’s range.  Buyers stepped in early on and we began trending higher, with the behavior extending through the entire session and us closing the week out a few points off of all-time highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and tag 7800.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7813.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 7865 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 7667.50 to tag the open gap at 7648.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Not the kind of May to sell

But feel free to go away.

In general, we would do well to forget about our investments and let them work for us while we build more important things, like our character.

I work hard every Sunday to identify the key elements of the stock market to watch in the upcoming week.  Then I define those factors as clearly as possible with pictures and words.  It may seem like an odd public service of sorts, and it can be, but it’s also what has taken me to consistent profitability as a futures trader.

Last Sunday it was clear we needed to watch the Russell, and I tweeted as much:

Index Model is included in the Strategy Session every Sunday.  The model attempts to predict market direction five days into the future, hence it needing to be updated every Sunday.  The predictive portion of the model is useful, but it offers something much greater—context.

When the markets started moving fast mid-week, I had to reduce the number of futures contracts I follow because my analytical computer starts to lag.  Since I had done my Sunday homework, I knew what was non-essential; the Dow, S&P, SOX, and TRANX.X. All I needed was the Russell and what I actually trade, the NASDAQ.

At that point, while popular traders were passing around the popular, “Sell in May, go away” mantra, I was simply watching the Russell bounce along its lower ATR band.  Why else do you think I was able to add to my Tesla investment with near-perfect precision?  An Elon Musk tweet?  Please.  I am a slave to no man’s word. Take a look at the last five days of trade on the Russell 2000, separated into 15 minute candles with volume profiles (volume at price) for each 24 hour day:

That’s all I wanted to reflect on for a moment.  If you’ve ever thought about trading index futures but haven’t been able to sufficiently capitalize an account to handle the notional value of index futures contracts, you’re in luck.  Beginning Monday, the CME is launching micro futures on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and Russell.  I think every trader should pick one of these markets and trade it exclusively for a few years.  It will develop you much further than ferreting from one degenerate stock to the next.

Chop wood and carry water.  We cannot just stop doing the things that brought us to where we are.  Sunday research, highly concentrated tweets, compassion for others, and pulling lots of weeds.

This isn’t the kind of May to go away from trading.  From fussing with your long-term investments?  Yes.  Do that now and thank me in four years.

I’ll still be here.

Raul Santos, May 5th, 2019

Exodus members, the 233rd edition of Strategy Session will be live by like noon eastern time.  Be sure to check it out and for gods’ sake, if you have have questions ask.

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Trade data strong, Payroll data strong, America, STRONG, here’s the Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight and trading up near Thursday’s high as we approach cash open.  At 8:30am advance goods trade balance and non-farm payroll data came out stronger-than-expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a slight gap up that was resolved during the opening two-way auction before we headed higher and tagged the 7800 handle.  Sellers stepped in here and drove lower, pushing us RE down and continuing lower, tagging the 7700 handle before settling into balance.  We ended the day chopping below the daily mid point.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and go higher, testing up through Thursday high 7805 which sparks a move up to 7830.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag the naked VPOC at 7840 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7736.50.  Sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 7724.  Look for buyers down at 7711 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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RAUL grounded from Twitter for 12 hours after lobbing insults at $TSLAQ trash

I was in a spirited mood overnight, satisfied that the stock market had validated my fresh allotment of Tesla intraday by rallying up-and-away from my buy point.  Having enjoyed a glass of George Clooney’s Casamigos tequila with my chief scientist whilst watching District 9, I took to ‘the Twitter’ in my altered state and was, of course, fed tweets about Tesla because the algos know what daddy likes to interact with.

You can imagine how lively the troglodytes over at $TSLAQ were yesterday, who’ve been emboldened of late by the normal way $TSLA shares have oscillated from the top of their WELL ESTABLISHED RANGE to the bottom.  These people do not understand what Tesla has achieved as a company, yet alone how an auction works.

Auctions spend most of their time in balance.  Just when you think a stock is going to breakout, or break down for this matter, it most often doesn’t.  Instead it reverses course, and takes another trip back through the range.  That is, unless, a major new piece of information sways enough participants to abandon a generally accepted value in search of a new one.

Anyways, here’s what happened.  One of these accounts called TSLA shareholders and stakeholders ‘bimbos’.  I cannot pinpoint which of the following accounts, because I was forced to delete my response to start a 12 hour timer on my Twitter suspension:

@stockspotify

@RichardKeppler1

@DReed67

@QTRResearch

Actually, now that I have typed out these handles, my memory has been jostled loose.  It was DReed67.  I am going to go out on a limb and assume DREED was born in 1967.  Therefore it is likely he has called many a woman a bimbo in his time, and he’s probably, in general, a real misogynistic piece of shit.

Anyways, my response was mean.  I’ll be the first to admit it.  I replyed, “bimbo, you sound like white trash.”

Which was wrong.  And if @jack is reading on a fluke, I am sorry.  I am.  That was not a nice thing to respond with.  And if any of the above accounts, especially the one who reported me, ever wants to come to Detroit, I would be happy to show you around.

Henceforth, let it be know RAUL cannot tweet again from his Twitter handle @IndexModel until 7:50pm EDT.  Please show your support for me during this hard time by sharing this post and my upcoming trading report to Twitter.  There are little buttons below to assist you in doing so.  You know I still love you, even if you don’t share, and LONG LIVE TELSA, LONG LIVE ELON (PRAISE!), THANK YOU @JACK FOR TWITTER.

Also a special thank you to Master Fly for creating this wonderful playground, IBANKCOIN, a bastion of free speech in the battle for financial gains. Hallelujah.

Raul Santos, May 3rd, 2019

My stream of conscious thought can be also be followed on Stocktwits where, as of now, I am currently not suspended: http://stocktwits.com/indexmodel

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Second quarter allotment secured

I shouldn’t have to announce every time I buy more Tesla because timestamping my entries doesn’t matter—these shares I’ve been accumulating for years and years and years will either achieve a 1,000 handle or trade to zero.

When I choose to make my quarterly allotment is of no concern.  If this tree grows, we shalt not know until halfway through the roaring ’20s.

Next quarter we likely won’t be having a blogger/reader experience.  I’ll just buy more Tesla, hopefully for less than I paid today (about 240 bucks), and go back to working the NASDAQ.

Henceforth, as prior, let this post serve as a reminder that I am a long-term Tesla investor.

::waves from Mothership::

Raul Santos, May 2nd, 2019

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Important weekly matters out of the way, here’s the 2nd of May NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight after continuing to slide lower for a bit following Wednesday’s afternoon sell-off.  Price dropped to a new 7-day low before catching a bid near last Monday’s (4/22) high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out weaker than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have durable goods and factory orders at 8:30am followed by both 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

All of the important tech earnings are complete for the week.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap up into the Monday midpoint.  Sellers were unable to fill the overnight gap during the opening two-way auction.  Instead price began working higher, pushing range extension up in the late morning but buyers were unable to test beyond the Monday high.  Instead we came into a balance formation and awaited the FOMC rate decision.  First reaction after the announcement was up, it took out the daily high by a few ticks but again could not test beyond the Monday high.  Instead we had a failed auction.  Reaction two and three to the FOMC rate decision were down and this triggered a liquidation that probed down near Tuesday’s low.  We ended the day near low-of-session.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7800 setting up a move to target 7831.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7732 which resolves the 4/22 gap at 7734.75 (we tagged this level during globex but not during cash)  and continues lower to 7728.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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