Thu Aug 3, 2017 9:16am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Still Flirting With Record Highs Despite Persistent Selling Pressure
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up, the fourth gap up this week, after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session. Several companies posted stronger-than-expected earnings, including Tesla:
Tesla Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $(1.33) vs $(1.80) Est., Sales $2.79B vs $2.55B Est
At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Service/Non-manufacturing Composites and Factory Orders at 10am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up. We briefly probed the weekly high then reversed and drove lower. The gap was filled and we continued lower, down to the lower ATR band before two-way trade ensued.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press off the open and probe the Wednesday high 5935.50. Look for sellers up at 5942.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5910.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5895.75. Look for buyers down around 5870 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press below last Thursday’s low 5844.75. Look for buyers down at 5840.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Wed Aug 2, 2017 9:16am ESTComments Off on Trading The NASDAQ After Apple Earnings
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on normal volume. Price spiked higher Tuesday afternoon after Apple reported earnings well above analyst expectations.
Apple Reports Q3 EPS $1.67 vs $1.57 Est., Sales $45.4B vs $44.89B Est. at 16:30:24
At 8:15am ADP Employment change data came out below expectations.
USA ADP Employment Change for Jul 178.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 158.0K
Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and sellers quickly worked into the overnight inventory to close the gap. Then we spent the rest of the day marking time, waiting for Apple earnings.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher. Look for buyers to work up through overnight high 5947.50 and tag 5962.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press into the Apple earnings move and trade down through overnight low 5885.75. Look for buyers right around here and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 5962.75 setting up a move to target 5980.75.
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
Note: Despite the IndexModel coming into the week with a bearish bias, we are back to a neutral stance after the stronger-than-expected Apple earnings. If sellers manifest Hypo 2, then we can consider returning to leaning bearish.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday, the first trading day in August, gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price worked higher and held inside the Monday range, coming into balance around midnight New York. At 8:30am Personal Consumption data came out better than expected.
Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing/Employment and Construction Spending at 10am. At 11:30am the US Treasury is auctioning off 4-week T-bills, then Apple reports earnings after closing bell.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The week began with a gap up. Sellers pressed into the gap and closed it, then continued down through overnight low, ultimately testing the low-end of value (set last week) before settling into two-way trade.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a choppy open. Look for sellers to step in around 5906.50 and begin working lower to close the gap down to 5890.25. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5875.50. A bid steps in just below and two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.
Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5915.50 and work up to 5920.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.
Hypo 3 strong sellers push down through 5860.75 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to probe below last Thursday’s low 5844.75, potentially setting up a move to target 5841 before two way trade ensues.
Mon Jul 31, 2017 2:11pm ESTComments Off on RAUL To Host Detroit Investors Conference Thursday
There is a free investors conference this Thursday in downtown Detroit from 5-7pm at WeWork Merchants Row. I am your host RAUL. You may know me as the chief scientist at iBankCoin laboratory. I also trade NASDAQ futures using the information contained in my morning trading reports.
And every quarter I make a YouTube video where I build a portfolio of stocks systematically. Once there are four, there will be annual adjustments to each portfolio, quarterly. Right now there are two. Here are links to the first quarter and second quarter portfolio videos. I use Motif Investing to execute the transactions.
These are the two ways I talk about investing and trading online because they are the most simple ways I have found to be consistently successful. 10 years ago, when I was desperate for knowledge on trading, I wish I would have found the content that I produce today. That is who I write for, me 10 years ago.
Now, thanks to being appointed to lead community organizer of the Detroit StockTwits Meet-up group, which is 450 persons strong, I have a place to share what I know in person.
I have always been about freedom of information. That is what the internet is all about. That is why I have zero interest in making you pay money to listen to me. I would much rather make my money trading and hustling. However, I do value your time, and if you come to this conference, I bet you will find it worth your while.
Plus, free pizza. Classy pizza too, not some five dollar mystery concoction.
If you are about to head off to college, you may want to come to this Detroit conference first so we can talk about how to make money before the universities start siphoning yours away.
Want to bring your spouse? Great, by all means do it. But you have to let me know so I can put you on the RSVP list. No list, no entry. They do not want hobos like me just walking in all willy nilly.
MAKE YOU INTENTIONS KNOWN. You can email me at [email protected] and I will add you to the list. You can leave your name in the comment below, and I will add you to the list. You can shoot me a DM on Twitter (@IndexModel) and I will add you to the list. You can send me nudes on Snapchat (vCali) and I will add you to the list. You can slide into my DMs on Instagram (@videovinnie) and I will add you to the list. You can RSVP on the actual MeetUp page, and I will add you to the list. Just make sure your names are on the list.
This Thursday from 5-7pm, we are going to talk about making money. You should too.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher until about 3am New York time. Then we balanced out just above last Friday’s range.
The economic calendar is hot this week but it starts off slowly. Despacito. At 9:45am Chicago Purchasing Manager, 10am Pending Home Sales, and at 11:30am both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.
Last week we drifted higher through Thursday morning. The Dow was trend up all week. The Russell was under pressure. The NASDAQ and S&P made hard moves lower Thursday afternoon then stabilized into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:
Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up. Price opened gap down but inside the Thursday range. Then we spent the rest of the day slowly working higher, slowly working the gap fill.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5911.75. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5897.25. Look for buyers down at 5879.50 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5933.50 triggering a quick rally up to 5962.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through 5872.50 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move to test last Thursday’s low 5844.75. Look for buyers down at 5841 and two way trade to ensue.
The kind and consistent scientists at iBankCoin laboratory have spent the morning parsing stock market data and reviewing the events that transpired last week. And after running our findings through the algorithms inside Exodus, a bearish signal was generated. This is the second consecutive bearish bias we have had.
You may think it is unwise to lean bearish heading into a new month. However, we will press onward with the conviction our quantitative model offers. Part of the reason we built this model—aside from creating a cold and dead way of forming a bias—was to show you, the people, that building your own model is one of the best ways to have confidence in your trades.
You grab the data, you run the statistics, you own the research and your trades. This is much better than relying on someone else. Because when the action is fast, your seat will start to boil while you wait for someone else to make decisions for you.
It is like packing your own parachute before you sky and dive.
Last week the selling did not surface until lunchtime Thursday. This week, we expect sellers to surface early and often. Ideally, the week begins with a gap up. That will give us something to target. If we gap up and sellers fail to close it, that will tell us something also.
When you focus on the auction, there is always a story being told. And it much better to base your decisions on the narrations of price action than 94% of news. Be selfish about the inputs you allow into your brain when you work.
With conviction and grace will shall press our bearish bias into the month of August. Right into the teeth of monthly fund flows. Until further notice, iBankCoin labs is issuing a second week of bearish bias. Should an event occur to change our opinion, it will be made known.
Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 142nd Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!
Detroiters, Canadians, people vacationing in the Great Lakes area next week, come to Detroit Thursday from 5-7pm for my free investors conference. RSVP here: click here
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday at record highs after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price worked higher overnight, sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. Durable Goods and Advance Goods Trade Balance data came out at 8:30am and both were huge bullish beats.
Then came the earnings. Here’s this morning’s big winners:
Comcast Reports Q2 EPS $0.52 vs $0.48 Est., Sales $21.165B vs $20.86B Est.
Mastercard Reports Q2 EPS $1.10 vs $1.04 Est., Sales $3.1B vs $2.97B Est.
UPS Reports Q2 EPS $1.58 vs $1.47 Est., Sales $15.75B vs $15.5B Est.
Celgene Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.82 vs $1.78 Est., Sales $3.27B vs $3.23B Est.
P&G Reports Q4 Core EPS $0.85 vs $0.78 Est., Sales $16.1B vs $16.02B Est.
Twitter Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.08 vs $0.05 Est., Sales $573.9M vs $536.5M Est.
Dow Chemical Reports Q2 Operating EPS $1.08 vs $1 Est., Sales $13.8B vs $13.61B Est.
Southwest Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.24 vs $1.20 Est., Sales $5.7B vs $5.72B Est.
Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed nominee Quarles confirmation hearing at the Senate banking committee at 10am, then a 7-year note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap up, sellers stalled ahead of record highs instead going range extension down. Sellers, however, could not close the overnight gap. Then the Fed left their key borrowing rate unchanged at 2pm. Third reaction off the announcement was a sell, but buyers ultimately took the day back to the highs. Then, after hours, several strong earnings reports pressed the NASDAQ even higher.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and press down to 5974. Buyers step in here and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5948.75 then take out overnight low 5947.25 setting up a move to target 5936.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5993.50 and tag 6002 before two way trade ensues.
Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:08pm ESTComments Off on Model Was Bearish Last Sunday; Model Still Bearish Wednesday Night
Coming into the week bearish has inspired several of the townsfolk who cavort around iBankCoin and FIN-Twitter to throw cabbage and tomatoes at my person. Which is fine. I imagine they do not fully understand the purpose of forming a directional bias heading into the trading week.
What I set out to do every Sunday is choose which side of the NASDAQ futures market to day trade during the week. None of these trades are held overnight. One trade that has proven effective during weeks with a short bias is playing for a break of *initial balance* low.
*initial balance is the first hour of trade.
Here’s how it works. The first hour of trade sets a range–a high and a low. Once I suspect the initial balance high is in, I find ways to initiate a short position on the NASDAQ. One of my favorite trades is when we cross the *daily mid*.
*daily mid is the halfway point between the high and the low. Rocket science, I know.
The trade worked Monday and Wednesday.
Will it work Thursday and Friday? The statistic suggests there is a high probability at least one of those days will take out initial balance low first.
Where the IndexModel has proven ineffective is in deciding when to close out long-term positions or initiate a multi-day hedge. However, if we trade a bit higher, I may be inclined to enter a position short into the weekend. I want to see how the /NQ futures behave at 5974. If sellers step in, I shall likely join.
In terms of earnings, goodness. The big players are crushing expectations. Look at just this afternoon’s batch of winners:
PayPal Reports Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.46 vs $0.43 Est., Sales $3.136B vs $3.09B Est. Facebook Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $1.32 vs $1.13 Est., Sales $9.321B vs $9.2B Est. Gilead Sciences, Inc. Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $2.56 vs $2.15 Est., Sales $7.141B vs $6.35B Est. Las Vegas Sands Reports Q2 Adj. EPS $0.73 vs $0.59 Est., Sales $3.14B vs $3B Est.
So it is hard to be bearish beyond first few hours of the trading day. Afternoons are for the boys.
The Exodus Strategy Session is for hardcore traders who work time-frames most of you should never even consider. There is no dabbling with the futures markets. If you can sit down without distraction and focus on order flow and the complications of your charts then yes, you can consider working these kind of trades.
In summary, the short bias generated is currently batting 2-for-3 and has two more at bats.
Still on this page? Great, than I will keep going. We can talk about any of the concepts discussed above better at the first ever Detroit investors conference next Thursday, August 4th. So RSVP. It is free, and I am not putting you on a mailing list or selling you timeshares in the Bahamas. There will be pizza.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher early this morning while company-after-company issued earnings well beyond analyst expectations. At 7am MBA mortgage applications came in below last week.
Also on the economic agenda today we have the Fed Rate decision at 2pm. There are several other low-impact events before the announcement including New Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gay down and push lower, but sellers were unable to take out the Monday low. Instead the auction reversed higher and spent most of the day working upward. Price was contained however inside of the Monday range.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a squeeze higher off the open, up to 5967.50 before we pause ahead of the Fed decision. Look for third reaction analysis after the announcement to give direction into the end-of-day.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5935 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5927. Look for buyers around 5920 MCVPOC as we wait for Fed decision.
Hypo 3 strong buyers press up through 5974 and sustain trade above it, causing the NASDAQ to trend higher up into the Fed decision.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight, holding inside Monday’s range. Just after closing bell Monday, Google earnings erased much of the progress achieved by buyers late into Monday’s session. At the core of the selling reaction was the $2.7 billion dollar anti-trust fine levied against the tech giant by the European Union.
At 9am today the House Price Index came out slightly below expectations. Also on the economic calendar today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The day began flat and buyers made a move up to the open gap from last Thursday (primary hypo). Sellers then stepped in and pushed the market range extension down. Then we traversed the entire daily range, pushing neutral, then to new all-time highs before ultimately falling back to the daily mid after Google. Neutral print.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to 5937.50 then stall. We then take out overnight low 5920.75 setting up a move to target the naked VPOC at 5907.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, down through overnight low 5920.75 and work down to fill the open gap at 5883.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5842.75 and probe Monday’s high 5954.75 continuing higher to 5967.50 before two way trade ensues.