iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,601 Blog Posts

Bull victory lap continues after huge payroll beat, here is the Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price worked higher overnight, trading  up through the Thursday high just before midnight New York before settling into balance above Thursday’s midpoint.  Then at 8:30am Non-farm payroll data came out well above expectations and sent price on a spike higher to a new overnight high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just about 20 points below all-time record NASDAQ highs.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began flat, and the open featured a selling drive down.  Sellers traded down and tagged the naked VPOC left behind Wednesday before we formed a sharp excess low.  We then bounced back up and through the midpoint before chop ensued, chopping along the bottom-side of the mid before a late-day ramp took price back up above the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through record high 8141 to tag 8150 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8089.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 8084.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Halloween victory lap, Facebook and Apple propel NASDAQ higher, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight, chopping along the top-side of Wednesday highs for most of the Globex session before rotating back into Wednesday range.  From there onward we held balance in the upper quadrant.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Wednesday high.

On the economic calendar today we have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

All important earnings for the week are out after Apple and Facebook appeased investors with strong earnings. Big Tech continues to drive broad market action:

Apple Q4 EPS $3.03  Vs $2.91  Last Year 
Apple Sees Q1 Sales $85.5B-$89.5B vs $86.92B Est. 

Facebook Q3 EPS $2.12 Beats $1.91 Estimate, Sales $17.38B Beat $17.36B Estimate

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution up.  The day began with a gap up in range that sellers worked down into during an open drive down.  The selling accelerated into the weekend gap, filling the gap before forming a sharp excess low.  Price then reclaimed the midpoint and chopped sideways all over it before the Fed cut its benchmark borrowing rate by 25 basis points.  The initial reaction to this was mute, but eventually third reaction was up and we worked up to 8100 before chopping into the bell.  During settlement the earnings mentioned above spiked price to a new daily high but did not take out all-time high before cash close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 8141.  Look for sellers up at 8150 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8081.50 setting up a move to target 8069.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8050 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Rate cut day, then Facebook and Apple report, here is the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight after briefly probing below the Tuesday low.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering about 10 points below Tuesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by an FOMC rate decision at 2pm and a Jay Powell press conference at 2:30pm.

After the bell we’ll hear earnings from two major NASDAQ components/movers, Apple and Facebook.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a slight gap up.  After a two way auction sellers stepped inand worked price down through the Monday low and into the gap zone left behind over the weekend.  Sellers were not, however, able to close the weekend gap.  Instead buyers stepped in and drove price back to the mid point.  Sellers defended the midpoint and we ended the day near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8075.25 to set up a run to 8092.25.  Then look for third reaction after the rate cut to dictate direction into the second half of the day.  Then be aware of the likely volatility during settlement at as key earnings are released.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8082.50 then continue lower, down through overnight low 8046.25 setting up a weekend gap fill down to 8034.75. Then look for third reaction after the rate cut to dictate direction into the second half of the day.  Then be aware of the likely volatility during settlement at as key earnings are released.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8014.  Then look for third reaction after the rate cut to dictate direction into the second half of the day.  Then be aware of the likely volatility during settlement at as key earnings are released.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Cruise session: NASDAQ super chill heading into Tuesday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping the Monday midpoint and holding range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Monday midpoint.

After the bell Monday Google parent company Alphabet Inc. reported earnings, shares are down about -1% in premarket trade:

Alphabet Q3 EPS $10.12 May Not Compare To $12.38 Estimate, Sales $40.499B Beat $40.32B Estimate

On the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence and pending home sales at 10am.

Most of the major economic data and key earnings are out tomorrow.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher, trending clean through the entire session, steadily gaining higher record prices.  Sellers stepped in during settlement, fueled by Alphabet earnings, and knocked price back down below the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 8118.75  to tag 8131.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8079.50 setting up a weekend gap fill down to 8034.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 softer selling trade down to 8066.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ cruising into Monday at all-time highs, here is the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are gap up about +40 heading into Monday after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher during a balanced session, working up record highs.  As we approach cash open, price is right up at globex high.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

We also have Google parent Alphabet, Inc. set to report earnings after-the-bell.

Last week featured a quiet Monday, with a slight up drift.  Tuesday was a trend down that ended on the lows.  Wednesday price consolidated in the lower quad of Tuesday for most of the day before ramping into the bell.  The rest of the week was spent auctioning higher, with relative strength seen in the NASDAQ.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a slight gap up and drive higher, trading up through the weekly highs by late morning and continuing to extend the gains into New York lunch.  Then we flagged along the highs, balancing for the rest of the day before ramping into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 8100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8131.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventor and close the gap down to8034.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Not much left to do here, just let markets cruise to new record highs

I am working on being more easy going.  After all I am growing old, having been 34 for nearly four months now, and I prefer to be kind to folks.  It is tricky when you live by the sword of trading.  In some ways I feel like the old guard and with that comes a sense of duty.  I want to exact justice against phonies who deal in selling trading education.  But what the hell for?  After the phonies go on stage and give their spiel, Q&A rolls around and people always behave in the same, disappointing way—defending their strategy, boasting of their accomplishments and demonstrating an in general attitude about doing nothing and attaining riches.

Fine.

So lately I am setting the intention to seek real equanimity, and not just some surface-level thought exercise.  I mean really meditating on it, tying with steel re bar this modality onto my mind’s foundation stones.  The slow driver?  The rude old man?  The blonde with long hair down to her cute little butt?  The clerk bagging groceries?  THE DOCTOR? The criminal?  The homeless? The body builder? That deer crossing the road? The guy selling an options trading service? The bird on the feeder? The opossum?  Giving them all the benefit of any doubt and shining my warm light their way.

I tell you what helps make my life super cruise-y and chill even though I hate to admit it—having lots of money.  It just does.  And when I make big, sweeping strides and acquire lots more money seemingly all at once, I don’t want to be a huge asshole like I can do sometimes.  Like calling people idiots for not investing in Tesla.  That is uncalled for.

Okay now let’s talk about how the market is likely to behave from today-onward.

The Sunday research I published into Exodus this morning indicates that all four major U.S. equity indices are statistically likely to be higher over the next five days.  We have three major earnings announcements coming up this week; Alphabet (Google), Facebook and Apple in that order.  The CME is pricing in a 93.5% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday :::inhales and exhales slowly:::  All of these events are likely to support higher prices.

The PHLX semiconductor index is at all-time highs.

Friday is November first.

So we rally into the new month, then new funds push into stocks to start the month since every W-2 earning employee in America has a chunk of their paycheck sent to the stock market which the majority of their retirement is dependent on.  That fresh money flows like a river into quality stocks, pressing equity prices higher clean into the holiday season, then we continue to rally into year-end. Then the new year starts and we rally again.

So there is not much to do here.  Your money should already be allocated long.  You don’t need to jump from one hot stock to another in some manic way, being active for the sake of activity.  If you are bored, go dig a hole or swim.  Channel that hedonistic energy into making delicious food for your family.  If you made some more money from other capitalistic pursuits, simply buy more of the best stocks in the world: TSLA, TWTR, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, COST, WMT, and so on.  Avoid ghetto stocks unless you want drama.  If you want drama, may I suggest going to the theater?

One quick note about Exodus.  Bear in mind I am not compensated in any way for promoting Exodus, or for all the research I publish inside Exodus, or for posting some of my trades inside Exodus, or for blogging in public forum like this.  The Fly does grant me access to the Exodus tool suite at no charge, which saves me about 500 bucks a year.  I would gladly pay several thousand dollars a year for Exodus, but that is beside the point.  See how I can digress?

One quick note about Exodus.  From October 2nd through October 25th we had a live signal.  Normally they only last 10 trading sessions but what happened was we flagged Hybrid overbought about 7 days into the oversold cycle.  It was one of the best trades out of the software this year.  I really don’t think any members traded this signal properly.  Maybe I am wrong.  Maybe they just silently go about their business and I hope that is the case because this trade was huge.  Using TQQQ to 3x leverage the position, I returned about +16% on this trade.

If you can be patient and trade signals like these, whether from Exodus or somewhere else, you are well on your way to becoming a successful (read: consistently profitable) trader.

 

Okay I am done. Thanks for reading along.

RAUL SANTOS, October 27th, 2019

Exodus members, the 258th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out and let me know if you traded the oversold-to-overbought signal properly, cheers!

 

 

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::Taps screen:: Slow overnight session, here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the Thursday low.

On the economic calendar today we have the final October reading of Sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and two way auction.  Seller then stepped in and began working down into the gap.  Buyers rejected a move back into the Wednesday range, forming an excess low before the auction turned and went range extension up.  Said buyers were unable to take out weekly highs before we settled into chop just above the daily midpoint.  Amazon earnings during settlement spiked price back down near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 7918.50 setting up a gap fill down to 7902.50.  Look for buyers down at 7896 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 7946.50 setting up a test above the Thursday high 7984.  Look for sellers up at 8000 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 7872.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ drifts higher into Wednesday, here is the trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, drifting up into the upper quadrant of Monday’s range.  At 8:30AM durable goods and initial/continuing jobless claims data both came out worse-than-expected. As we approach cash open, price is holding near Globex high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Markit composite PMI at 9:45am, new home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Also be aware that Amazon is set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up that was resolved during the morning two-way auction.  Sellers were unable to take out Monday’s trend day low.  Instead buyers stepped in and worked us range extension up by late morning.  We then chopped along the midpoint before spiking back up to session high during settlement, in part due to strong earnings from Tesla.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 7963.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 7977 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7902.50.  Look for buyers down at 7896 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Billionaires win again! Tesla shares up a quick +50 bucks after fascinating quarter

Our Dear Leader led his team of scientists and engineers to do what no one else on the planet was capable of—executing a massive manufacturing strategy to assume control everything. Transportation, energy, diplomacy with China.  Say no more.  If you aren’t invested in Tesla at these prices you’re a fool.  All those “Idoit’s Guide To…” books are written for you, the idiot.

Someone on iBankCoin had/has/continues to have a massive $TSLA position. Consider this a humble victory lap.  Praise and Glory to The Leader. I share with you His Tweet regarding earnings, and then I bid you well:

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Day after trend down, MSFT and TSLA report after the bell, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down through the lows of the last 8 days, poking into the October 1st range before rotating back into yesterday’s range and coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside the lower quadrant of yesterday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 2-year note auction at 11:30am and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

After the bell, we’ll hear earnings from three major NASDAQ components: Microsoft, Paypal, and Tesla.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap up near the current swing high.  After a two-way auction sellers stepped in and began working price lower, closing the overnight gap and continuing lower, down through Monday’s low and eventually accelerating to the downside late in the day to close in the lower quadrant of last Friday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through Tuesday low 7850.25.  This sets up a move down through overnight low 7810.25.  Look for buyers down at 7800 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 7872 setting up a move to target 7880 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade us down to 7783.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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