I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,859 Blog Posts

NYSE Extreme Tick Alert

Mothership detected a rare anomaly on the New York Stock Exchange Friday morning that may mark the climax of our rally for now.

It’s a shame to just now be seeing this, but I was distracted Friday, shooting aerial footage of a nearby Macy’s slated for decommissioning.

Nevertheless, good reader, it behooves you to be cautious this week.  An extreme, 3rd sigma NYSE tick pressed through the market Friday morning, see below:


Note: my NYSE tick is a bit different than most people’s NYSE ticks.  It is powered by IQ Feed, and pipes in raw tick data from the entire NYSE, unlike the more basic NYSE most people use and blindly take action from +/- 1000 ticks.

The behavior Friday was somewhat uncommon for an extreme up-tick.  Usually you can ride those bad boys all day long and look for the exits a few days later.  Friday sputtered out just after buyers clawed back the gap left behind last Monday.

All around, this is grounds for caution.



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NASDAQ Futures Lower To Start Sketchy Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first Monday of February gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price chopped around inside last Friday’s range in balanced trade, however as we approach cash open there is some selling pressure hitting the tape.

The economic docket is light all week, and today we only have two T-bill auctions to monitor, both at 11:30 am, the 3- and 6-month duration, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week began with a hard sell that was bought.  Then a gap down Tuesday that traded the same way, lower in the morning than higher in the afternoon.  Wednesday was gap up and range bound, and the rest of the week marked time.  The performance of each major US index can be seen below:


On Friday we printed a normal variation down on the NASDAQ.  After opening gap up closing the gap left behind when we came into last week, price stalled, and excess high formed and we poked below initial balance low for a second.  Then we slowly traded higher through the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push off the open and trade down to the open gap down at 5130.75.  Sellers continue lower, closing the gap down at 5119.25 as well.  Look for responsive buyers down at 5118.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5154.75.  Buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 5160 and test above all time high.  Look for sellers up at 5182 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 range trade, from 5156.50 to 5123.50.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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After Solid Winning Streak, iBankCoin Labs Flips To Neutral

It takes a certain humility to admit when you have no edge in a competition.  Like Super Bowl squares, no edge, I’m not buying.  Or predicting how Tesla will behave after their Wednesday earnings announcement.

I can’t call it.

After 4 weeks of bullish predictions from the IndexModel, it has flipped to neutral.  Like a bird on a wire, it would rather observe and chat than venture onto the busy street for snacks.

Heading into the second week of the second month of the first year under our new American authoritarian regime, which is cool, we love our leader ::quivers:: there is no call from iBankCoin labs.

Enjoy your American football match.

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Elon Musk Rolls Eyes at @Bro_Pair and His Vile Ilk; Remains on Trump Advisory Board

Tesla CEO and all around proper supreme leader Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) issued a statement via the municipal website Twitter Thursday evening explaining why he will remain on the President of the United States of America’s advisory board:


Unlike Uber CEO Travis Kalanick (whose last name sounds like a colon irrigation) our chief of both Tesla and SpaceX has a REAL stated purpose on this planet and intends to achieve his goals of advancing humanity regardless of who is in charge of the best country on Spaceship Earth.

For when you purpose is clear, that which is out of your control does not matter.  What matters is pursuing your goals as effectively as possible.  Being an advisor to President Trump is surly a way to remove roadblocks from your projects.

But Travis just made an app for hailing rides.  Literally a non-event.  Literally being copied and reproduced easily by several other companies.  Travis “colon irrigation” Kalanick is not an inspiring creator.  Seeing him quick to cave and mistakenly leave the useful post of Trump advisory like a fool is hardly surprising.

Travis is replaceable.

Conversely, Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) is not replaceable.  If he does not save us from the greedy oil grabbers and provide us transport off earth once our national parks are converted into fracking centers, the jig is up for humanity.  It will take more than a petty list from a no-neck Twitter choad to deter him from his quest to usher in a future where humans inhabit multiple planets.

This is bullish for Tesla, and investors will reward the share price of $TSLA upon realizing they have the finest steward of their money waking up every day and going to work to win instead of getting caught up in political guff.

Seek more leaders like Elon (all Praise) and invest in them aggressively.

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Urban Chaos Ignored, NASDAQ Set To End Week With Poise and Grace

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down through the Thursday low briefly before rallying through the night.  At 8:30am Non-farm Payroll data came out mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing composite and Factory Orders at 10am, followed by the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap down, could not penetrate the Wednesday low but instead rallied all morning.  WE stalled inside of the Wednesday range and balanced out, printing an inside day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5130.75.  Look for buyers down at 5125 and two way, calm, peaceful trade around 5137 as we head into the weekend.

Hypo 2 squeeze up though overnight high 5150 to target the open gap at 5162 before we balance out.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5162 staging a rally.  Stretch target is 5193.75 then 5200.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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NASDAQ Methodically Trades Lower Overnight; Amazon Earnings on Deck

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked down through the Wednesday low, with selling stalling out just 1-tick ahead of the Tuesday close before buyers stepped in and balanced price out.  At 7am the Bank of England left their benchmark interest rate unchanged.

At 8:30am we will hear the Initial/Continuing jobless claims data, however investors are likely more keen to hear Friday morning’s Non-Farm Payroll data.

Amazon is also set to report earnings after market close.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up sellers worked into the morning tape, pressing us down to Monday’s close 5123.75 and filling that gap.  Buyers were just 1 tick below and began working price higher.  They did not manage to work us into a neutral print, but did regain much of the intra-day selling by the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 5119.50 and continue lower, down to 5110.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5147.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5153.25.  Look for sellers up at 5153.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press the weekly gap fill up to 5162 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Here’s A Really Quick Look Back At The Sunday Strategy Session

Every Sunday I interpret the algorithms inside Exodus and update several data into my working index model.  The output from these operations allows me to form an objective thesis for the upcoming week.  It’s called the Executive Summary, and it is featured at the top of every week’s report for quick access–by you executive types.

It has changed my ability to make money dramatically.  Hopefully it helps you too.  This week’s thesis has been bang on so far:


Now I may just be a simple country man, but I know when we’re finger licked.  I’m not some American magician whose mystic powers allow for clairvoyance, nor do I parade myself around in an eagle mask making bold calls.

However, these actionable predictions are based on 100s of samples—samples taken live and walked forward—all with the expressed intent of banking coin better than most, at a steady and industrious clip.

After all, this is a marathon and I’m just getting started.  And boy am I patient. Like a crocodile.

If you’re a member of Exodus and not reading the Executive Summary inside Strategy Session every Sunday, you’re doing yourself a disservice.

The good folks at iBankCoin labs are all over this week’s action and expect higher prices into week’s end.


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New Month New Fund Flows: NASDAQ Higher Heading into February, FOMC Rate Decision on Deck

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, pressing up through Monday’s high and sustaining the gains as we approach cash open.  Buoying the NASDAQ were strong earnings out of Apple Tuesday evening.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out worst than last week.  At 8:15am ADP employment data was much better than expected—likely also supporting higher prices.

Also on the economic docket today we have both ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly an FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm.

Facebook is set to report earnings after-market-close and packs enough market cap to move the NASDAQ.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The market opened gap down, inside Monday range and sellers were active early on, pressing lower for much of the morning.  Buyers then stepped in, and continued working into the market to completely reverse the selling and make a new daily high.  Prices spiked near end of day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a quick poke up to 5150.  Sellers show up here and we tread water until the FOMC rate decision.

Hypo 2 short squeeze up to the weekly gap at 5162 before we base out ahead of FOMC.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5119.25 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5114.50 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC.

Use third reaction post FOMC to determine market direction into the close, and into the end of week.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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#TheFinalYolo Eliminated: Apple Shares Explode Higher, Completely Bankrupting Degenerate Canadian Trader

A bit of context.  There is a Canadian guy who inherited $2.5 million dollars from an uncle and took to trading it on the internet in an unabashed, ultra-violent manner, mostly via low-probability options bets, literally wearing a fucking wolf mask whilst doing it.

As you can imagine, his account slowly dwindled away.  Then, he made his last stand—a final trade of sorts—do or die via some Apple puts into the Tuesday earnings announcement.

His twitter handle is @FSComeau and the hashtag of reference is #thefinalyolo.

There is a long reddit with his backstory, but the link does not seem to be working.  Here are some screenshots of the details I’ve deemed pertinent:

wallstbetts1 wallstbetts2

I’m not going to pile onto this guy.  He probably feels pretty shitty right now.  Shares of Apple are ripping tits after hours and even if the move reverses, he bought puts and as anyone whose ever gambled on earnings with options knows, the premium tanks after earnings even if you call the direction properly.  Like you need some seriously massive move to happen for those stupid options to make money.

So we shall assume #thefinalyolo was a bust, RIP @FSComeau.

But I want to to burn one of his sentences into your brain:

“I’d rather take my chance to get my money back.”

If you ever hear your internal dialog blurb out that nonsense, chain yourself in the cellar for the next 3-6 months until your sanity returns.  Preferably in a straight jacket so you can’t hurt yourself.

It’s not your money to get back, you lost it. You’re playing with a toxic mentality.  Any gambler, speculator, will tell you this.  Calling the market “rigged” is bonus insanity points.

Shares of $AAPL traded as high as $125.27 after hours after the company reports Q1 EPS $3.36 vs $3.22 Est., Sales $78.4B vs $77.38B Est.



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Month-End NASDAQ Round Up

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked higher, briefly, overnight before beginning to work lower in a balanced, methodical manner.  As we approach cash open, price appears to be in balance and is trading just below the Monday midpoint.  At 8:30am the Employment Cost Index data was below expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller Comopsite-20 at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, $20B worth of 52-week T-bills being auctioned by the US Treasury at 11:30am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Apple is set to report earnings after-market-close, and is likely to jostle NASDAQ futures prices.

Don’t forget we have an FOMC rate decision lingering on the horizon, set for release Wednesday afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a rare normal day.  Sellers were active and aggressive for the first hour of trade, driving price lower.  However, their campaign ended just as soon as it began, and the higher time frame stepped aside which led to prices slowly drifting higher.  It is worth noting, however, that there were active and aggressive sellers early on, so aggressive, we printed an abnormally wide initial balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5123.75.  Price continues higher, up through overnight high 5126.75.  Look for sellers to defend their newly claimed territory, ahead of 5130 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press off the open, down through overnight low 5106.75 and continue lower to probe the Monday low 5094.50.  Look for buyers just below at 5092.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 5130 to trigger a pole climb up to 5148.50 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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