iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,847 Blog Posts

NASDAQ starting the week up a cool +60, here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are heading into the first full week of the March contract gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was gap up Sunday evening when the Globex markets opened for trade. The buying continued for three minutes before sellers assumed control of the tape until about midnight New York. Said sellers were unable to return price back to the Friday range. Instead we formed a tight balance above the Friday range for much of the session and even briefly probed up beyond the Thursday high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week U.S. equity markets saw a rally through early Wednesday morning, then hard selling Wednesday. Some consolidation selling during the rest of the week but no real follow-through. Divergent strength from the Russell 2000 suggests risk tolerance remains strong. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap down into the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range. Sellers drove lower for 15 minutes after a brief open two-way auction. Then buyers surged price back up above the Thursday midpoint, briefly. Buyers could not reclaim a logical resistance level there and sellers were able to press range extension down into lunchtime. Said sellers were unable to show much follow thru, not even able to take out the Thursday low. That set up a rally for the rest of the session, eventually leading to a close on high of day.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher. Look for buyers to take out overnight high 12,453.50 early on, setting up a run to 12,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 12,531.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight w 12,388 on their way to closing the overnight gap down at 12,366.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Nothing matters, let’s get high

Took a heady dose of nitrous oxide Thursday morning, pretty much first thing after some coffee (no breakfast). At the dentist, of course. I have my teeth cleaned every three months…for the nitrous. I gives me the added benefit of having extra squeaky clean teeth. But I am all about that higher consciousness.

Anyhow the NOS calmed me down a bit. I’ve been real buggered lately by the lockdown, notably because I usually take off from the murder mitten during the bleak winter months. I have many dear friends in places much fairer than here who are happy to house me. In the mountains, in the clubs and on the west coast. But why go anywhere? So here I sit, in the grey stew, hunkered down for the sake of the devil knows what.

Fine.

I read a nice Jerry Garcia quote this morning and while the feller hardly seems like the Wall Street type he certainly rode his fair share of waves. I’ve never been a fan of Grateful Dead music, but if I understand correctly they sort of do these long form shows that build and build then release. Which is a common approach today in the techno house scene, and is definitely a wave, man. You know when a DJ is doing it right because the flow adapts to the crowd and the crowd begins the sync and everyone is just vibing.

The Garcia quote is at the bottom of this week’s strategy session, and I dare say it has everything to do with the world of speculative finance. Undifferentiated weirdness. That is all this game is. You can get your fill of bullshit whys from the heads at CNBC entertainment news or any number of popular twitter accounts that have proven to be wrong year-after-year-after-year-after-year-after-year and yet grown more-and-more-popular and more-and-more-vocal and more-and-more-retweeted. Or…or you can put your blinders up, write a trading plan, wrap some risk around it and show up every day ready to work your way through the undifferentiated weirdness.

It may seem sometimes like I harbor a clairvoyance. I mean, I’ve been banging the drums for years-and-years-and-years-and-years-and-years-and-years-and-years-and-years-and-years regarding Tesla. But look, even I sold a third of my hard accumulated Tesla shares back when we hit 1,000 (pre-split). It was just another example of not assigning too much meaning to the weird pudding that is high finance.

And fuck finance to be totally frank. This industry is so chock full of greedy bastids who’d just as soon sell you up shits creek as they would leave you holding the bag. A bunch of measly skunks I tell ya. Our job is not to befriend any of these big shot douche bags. Fuck’em. Our job is to execute our plan and consistently extract fiat american dollars. That’s it.

You start assigning some big meaning to this-or-that move or this-or-that big shot douche bag and you know what’s gonna happen? The Big Machine is going to zero you out and smash your ego with a cinder block. Maybe that’s a good thing. It can be a positive experience. Anything can be. Look at me…I live in a van down by the river loving life.

This is not the kind of game that rewards truth seekers or folks teeing up for that one big life changing trade. That sort of against the odds bullshit only works in hollywood scripts. It has been beaten into the conscious of the American that the individual can defy great odds, with some heroic bravery and luck and fling themselves out of the thick minutia of middle class existence.

Almost certainly this agnostic belief set will end up in ruin. Show up and work. And then work some more. Nobody cares. Look at me. Nobody cares about me except for like two good dudes on Twitter.

Doesn’t matter. I am not here to find a sewing circle, nor am I here to impress any of yous. Extract fiat. Build cool shit. That’s it.

RIP Chuck Yeager.

Raul Santos, December 13th, 2020

And now, the 316th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy:


I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.03, neutral. Buyers re-emerge and control the tap through Wednesday afternoon. Then watch for the third reaction to the FOMC announcement to provide direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Rally through early Wednesday morning, then hard selling Wednesday. Some consolidation selling during the rest of the week but no real follow-through. Divergent strength from the Russell 2000 suggests risk tolerance remains strong.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy independently bucks the selling. Everything else rotates lower. Tech being the second weakest sector is not something bulls want to see.

bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows somewhat neutral after two weeks skewing bullish.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Still a bullish cycle

We are continuing to operate in a bullish overbought cycle until Friday the 18th. Expectations remain to the upside.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Rally through early Wednesday morning, then hard selling Wednesday. Some consolidation selling during the rest of the week but no real follow-through. Divergent strength from the Russell 2000 suggests risk tolerance remains strong.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors go parabolic, Transports not acting like a failed auction

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are lingering along the high after initially looking like they may print a failed auction. The longer this index can stick up here, the less likely a hard sell is to materialize and more likely we are to see a fresh leg up.

Watch FedEx earning due out Thursday after market close to perhaps tip this index one way or another.

See below:

Semiconductors really look sketchy for the bulls. After blasting higher out of the ascending wedge, the wedge which formed during the 4th rotation higher of the current discovery phase, they quickly have given back much of the move.

If this index falls back down through the wedge it could be the start of a discovery down phase.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a fifth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. STOCKLABS HYBRID OVERBOUGHT

On Friday, December 4th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Friday December 18th, end-of-day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“It’s pretty clear now that what looked like it might have been some kind of counterculture is, in reality, just the plain old chaos of undifferentiated weirdness.” – Jerry Garcia

Trade simple, eschew seeking higher meaning

 

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the final day of the first full week of December gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price worked lower overnight, unidrectionally rotating lower until catching a bid around 6:30am New York. As we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down outside of Wednesday’s range. After an open two-way auction sellers made a sharp move lower, briefly trading down into the December 1st range before a sharp excess low formed. From then until about 11:40am price rallied hard, trading back up into the Wednesday range a checking back to the fast liquidation zone. Sellers defended their recently claimed territory, and we spent the rest of the session chopping along the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,384.75. From there buyers continue a bit higher, tagging 12,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 12,425 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 continuation selling. Sellers take out overnight low 12,263.25 setting up a move down to 12,200. Stretch targets if we begin to liquidate are 12,100 then 12,016.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Open gap in range ;-) here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the Tuesday high after exceeding it for a few hours. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday range.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and a 10-year note auction at 1pm.

We also have major tech component ADBE reporting earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed double distribution trend up. The day began with a slight gap down and after a brief open spike higher sellers stepped in and drove price lower, trading down through the Monday low before forming a sharp excess low. The rest of the session was spent auctioning higher, making new record highs and shifting value up near the high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,641. From here buyers continue higher, trading up through overnight high (all-time high) 12,675. Look for sellers up at 12,700 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 12,700 setting up a run to 12,750.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 12,615.50 and tag 12,592.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Monday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering about 10 points below the Monday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap up and open drive higher. Buyers drove to a record high, flagged for a bit, then pressed to range extension up, pressing about 12 points beyond the 12,600 century mark before discovering a responsive offer. Said sellers rotated price back down to the midpoint and briefly down through it. Sellers could not however defend the mid and we ended the day with a little ramp up off the mid and back into the upper quadrant to end the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,593. From there buyers continue higher, up beyond overnight high 12,602.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 12,656.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press a gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 12,527.50. Look for buyers down at 12,509.50 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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More up stuff, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the first full week of December with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight. First-off it ran up to a new record high print, then after about 20 minutes of being open price fell back into the Friday range. That sell rotation carried clean through to 3:45am New York, when buyers stepped in near Friday’s midpoint. Since then we’ve slowly drifted higher and as we approach cash open price is hovering near the Friday high.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Last week kicked off with some strong selling early Monday that discovered a strong responsive bid. The rest of the week is spent rallying then holding along the highs. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a slight gap down and after an open two-way auction buyers stepped in. Resolved the gap and continued higher, trudging along at the highs for several hours before checking back to the midpoint around 2:45pm. Sellers couldn’t quite tag the mid before buyers defended and eventually rallied back to the daily high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through 12,541.50 early on and sustain trade above it, setting up a run up through overnight high 12,572.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 12,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12.507.75 then continue lower, down through overnight low 12,474.75. Look for buyers down at 12,450 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Bull onward

I have to make this brief and then commute over to my exercise room for the zoom yoga meeting (FML). Boy do I miss going over to the hot house on the uppity side of town and packing shoulder to shoulder with all the nearly naked mamacitas in their state-of-the-art sports bras and panties.

Research is bullish going into the first full week of December. You know the drill. That means I will be actively working open gaps in range (as always). I shall press the bets if we’re dealing with a gap down in prior day’s range because of the bullish convictions of my research. We’ll be gunning for range extension up and overnight highs like a bunch of amphetamine junkies climbing a mountain.

MORE

That’s about all I have time to say. The murder mitten has taken on its grey hue, a bland blob of scenery where different days are only discernible by the long stretches of darkness between the brief periods of grey glow. This is the antithesis of a psychedelic experience. Where one features kaleidoscopic trips through the entire visual color spectrum, the other is simply fifty shades of gay grey.

In these conditions it is best to stick of coffee. Legal speed. Until about 11am. Then switch to malt liquor, nourishing the body with a couple of 40 ounce bottles of foamy soda. Then, if night comes and a fire and some good fiction don’t put you under, then a big of tequila to turn out the lights.

Enough of that. Farewell lads.

Raul Santos, December 4th 2020

And now, the Stocklabs Strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 12/07/20 – 12/11/20

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.78, medium bull. Expect a bit of weakness Monday, with sellers claiming a minor victory early in the week. Then look for a responsive bid to step in as early as Tuesday morning and for price to steadily rally through to Friday.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Similar story to the prior week—strong selling early Monday discovers a strong responsive bid. The rest of the week is spent rallying then holding along the highs.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Energy continues trade independent the market, this week way out in front. However the key driver Tech put in a strong showing and was flanked by Healthcare and Financials. Utilities were weak. Everything else muted.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Industry flows skewed majorly bullish for a second week. Raises expectations for a continuation higher.

bullish

Here are this week’s results:

III. STOCKLABS ACADEMY

Fresh signal

The Stocklabs overbought signal we were working ended last Monday. Then, into the close Friday a new overbought signal fired. That means we have ten more trading session’s worth of bullish bias, clean through to the 18th.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Expect a bit of weakness Monday, with sellers claiming a minor victory early in the week. Then look for a responsive bid to step in as early as Tuesday morning and for price to steadily rally through to Friday.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Semiconductors go parabolic, Transports not acting like a failed auction

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports had the look of a failed auction heading into last week after quickly reversing off the highs after making a new swing high. However, price managed to linger and even claw back some losses last week and now it is looking less and less like a failed auction. Sellers need to make a decisive move, and soon, otherwise the prevailing up trend is likely to carry prices into the open air above.

See below:

Semiconductors might be at the beginning of something big to the upside after blasting up and away from the wedge formation we’ve been monitoring for the last few weeks. Or, this could be the final throws of a rally—a euphoric blow off.

We don’t know.

Either way, as of now the index remains in discovery up.

See below:

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a fourth consecutive week. No bias.

VI. STOCKLABS HYBRID OVERBOUGHT

On Friday, December 4th Stocklabs signaled hybrid overbought. This is a bullish cycle that runs through Friday December 18th, end-of-day.

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Man, when you lose your laugh you lose your footing.” – Ken Kesey

Trade simple, have fun

 

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Off to poke around in the dirt

Not even the jobs numbers could put a wiggle in the futures and when we’re up at record highs there isn’t much I can do to extract fiat using my approach. Instead I will pen this brief blog entry, interact with Stocklabs for a bit then sequester myself to the laboring fields.

When busy pruning trees or cooking or exercising or whatever, it is much more difficult to do something low value like force a trade on for the sake of keeping busy. Idle hands are soon occupied by rabid jackin’ off or taking big lugs of hooch, or trading YOLO calls. Anything for a kick in this otherwise dull pandemic existence.

Three hours is about the max amount of time I can sit, disciplined, at the turrets of Mothership, which are always greased and loaded and ready to fire seventy thousand shots at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Then my mind wanders. To hoagies. Fast women. Building water features. You know, stuff like that.

And I sense my mind is already someplace adrift. Therefore, before I do anything I’d later come to regret, like my ongoing twitter rants against the lock down, I’ll just excuse myself and wish you all adieu.

Cheers lads. Stay woke. People creepin’. Back Sunday with an in depth weekly research report.

Raul Santos, December 4th, 2020

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NASDAQ normalizes, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the high print of Wednesday trade. Jobless claims data came out better than expected at 8:30am, and as we approach cash open price is hovering at the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM services index at 10am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down and open drive lower. The drive down probed briefly below the Tuesday low but was unable to resolve the gap left behind early Tuesday morning (December 1st). Instead responsive buyers were on the scene within the first 15 minutes of action and turned the auction around. The rest of the session was spent campaigning higher, eventually closing the overnight gap and ending on the high of the day, up inside the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 12,469.75. From here sellers continue lower, tagging 12,407.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers reject a move back into Wednesday high 12,472 setting up a probe beyond all-time high 12,512.25. Look for sellers around 12,550 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers probe up into open air and rally up to 12,600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ droops down a quick -50 after making new record high, here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second day of December gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the middle of Monday’s range. At 9:15am ADP employment data came out worse than expected and as we approach cash open price is hovering below the Monday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a breakaway gap. Buyers drove higher after an open two-way auction probing up near all-time high before falling back to the midpoint by mid morning. Buyers defended the mid setting up a rally that pressed higher through 2:30pm, making a new all-time high and setting the VPOC up near the highs before falling back to the midpoint late in the session. Buyers defended the mid again and we ended the day in the upper quadrant of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 12,464.25. From here buyers continue higher, trading up through overnight high 12,473.50. Look for sellers up at 12,497.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers probe up through all-time high 12,512.25, tagging 12,550 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press don to 12,351.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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