I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,890 Blog Posts

Watching Bill Nye and Bernie Sanders Explain Climate Change Facts on Facebook Is Your Job Today

If you only do one thing today, let it be watching that nice old man Bernie Sanders, who totally would have won the American President contest, host everyone’s favorite pop scientist Bill Nye for a conversation on Global Warming.

The fact-laden conversation goes down live, today, on Mark Zuckerberg’s devious platform, at 10:30am eastern.

If you only do two things today, let the second be to inform the biggest conservatard in your life that this live event is going to be lit (you may have to translate ‘lit’ to ‘a real sock hop’).  Perhaps it will trigger them so they can look like a dumb galoot over on Facebook.

Here’s a link to Uncle Bernie’s Facebook page, the venue for today’s free show:



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NASDAQ Loses All Friday @RampCapitalLLC Gains Ahead of New Week

NASDAQ futures are heading into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was balanced, overall.  Price went up and exceeded the Friday high before retracing most of the Friday afternoon ramp.  At 8:30am Durable Goods orders were pretty bad and by bad I mean well below expectations—especially Ex-Transportation.

Other economic events on the agenda today are Pending Home Sales at 10am, and a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, $34B and $28B respectively.

Last week we essentially marked time.  Prices drifted sideways after gapping up into the holiday shortened week.  The chart below displays the weekly return of each major US index:

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  It opened gap down and made a new low on the week before finding a strong responsive bid.  After some two-way for most of Friday, there was a strong afternoon ramp higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5343.25 before we churn around at the 5340 level.  Eventually we go take out overnight high 5352.50 but look for sellers just above at 5353.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5331 and tag 5327 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down though 5325.50 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target 5310.75 before two way trade ensues.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Models Remain Bullish; Cool Heads Will Prevail

One of these legendary investors that is often quoted said something along the lines of, “inaction is often a challenge.”

Many people derive their worth from their employment or however they sustain themselves.  I think this is not a healthy way of thinking, however it is prevalent.  This can drive people to trade for the sake of taking action.

The best play in 2017 has been to sit tight, invested, and do nothing.

According to the latest results from iBankCoin laboratories, this course of action ought to serve you well into month end.

The wild card on the week comes Tuesday morning, when we hear the GDP reading.  Perhaps, just maybe, and economic data point could throw a wrench in this pretty impressive rally we’ve had since the victory of our new authoritarian regime.

We shall see, but for now…


Exodus members, the 120th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!


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Snapchat IPO Is Oversubscribed

Sources tell Reuters the Snapchat IPO is oversubscribed.  Demand for the latest in social media offerings is running high, despite the issued shares having zero voting rights.

Snapchat has done an infinitely better job than Twitter of building a platform that advertisers can use.  This may be why there is so much excitement that the video sharing company finally coming public.

You buying SNAP next week when it goes live?

UPDATE: Mark Cuban tells Benzinga he will buy Snapchat at the IPO, if he can.  And by if he can, I suppose he means if he can at prices the general population is likely to never see on the first day of IPO.  More equal than others, etc, etc.

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Sellers Emerge As We Wrap Up The Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower during the entire globex session, pressing to a new weekly low and deep into last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales and the final February reading of Confidence from the University of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  After a morning spike to new all-time highs, sellers swiftly entered the market and reversed all of the week’s gains.  The move was faded by responsive buyers who stepped in near the value high from last Friday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and try to regain the Thursday range.  Look for them to succeed at reclaiming 5310.75 setting up a move to target 5320.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower, down to 5290.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work a gap fill up to 5333 then take out overnight high 5334.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation.  Sellers sustain trade below 5290 setting up a move to target 5278.50 then 5270.25.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Tesla Earnings Were Nearly Perfect: Here’s Why Shares Are Lower

Fourth quarter earnings for Tesla revealed several positive updates from the world’s most provocative technology company, yet shares are lower following the announcement.

What gives?

First, have a look at their financial performance:

Sales $2.28B vs $2.18B Estimate

Earnings per share $(0.78), Adjusted EPS $(0.69) vs $(0.43) Estimate

Solid top-line beat and a miss on earnings.  The company is ramping up production and is burning through money fast.  Investors understand that Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) is the absolute best steward of their capital, and that He, and only He, can save us from humanity’s belligerent destruction of planet earth.  Therefore a miss on earnings is not material and totally okay.

During the press conference, Elon (Praise and Glory) said the Model 3 program is still on track.  THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT.  The stakes are high on the Model 3, which is expected to reach mass market unlike the company’s Model X, S, and Roadster.

Little known Easter egg: once Model Y comes out, the company’s line of products will read, “S3XY”.  Like I said, provocative.

Musk (Praise) also aggressively countered the issue of the union rat planted in his Fremont, California plant by the UAW.  He needs to keep those blood suckers out of his company, and it looks like he intends to do so by awarding his employees stock compensation.  Jalopnik has more details on this matter.

2016 deliveries fell about 4000 units below expectations.  If you’re a jaded Business Insider writer, this was a significant miss and grounds for demolition of $TSLA shares, likely because BI writers don’t actually own Tesla shares.  Tesla produced 83,922 cars during 2016.  Not a small feat.  We are talking about infiltrating the most diabolical industry in the world, after all.

For the first half of 2017, Tesla is forecasting the delivery of 47-50k cars.  Wow.

Now this is why Tesla shares are lower after earnings:

Look folks, this isn’t rocket science.  Despite Our Leader (Glory to The Leader) understanding rocket science, his stock will behave in a fairly predicable manner until the end of 2017 when we have more visibility on the Model 3—until then the stock is range bound.

What most of you fail to understand is that stocks spend the majority of their time, around 70%, IN BALANCE, aka range.  Discovery only takes place AFTER a major shift occurs in information, requiring the market to discover new value.

I know this is all very boring for most of you, because it doesn’t trigger an emotion like your politics or your American football or fast moving stocks, but it is what it is.  If you want thrills, try crack cocaine on a roller coaster.

The fact that $TSLA has not come crashing down through range is a positive development.  True believers in Elon (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) should welcome more range trade, which allows us to continue accumulating shares.

In summary, the scientists and engineers at Tesla are doing everything proper to keep investors happy.  Q4 was solid, and those demonic UAW vermin are being sprayed with poison.

The lofty valuation for $TSLA shares remains.  This is, unequivocally…






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NASDAQ Higher: Slow and Steady

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a small gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up beyond all-time highs overnight and is sustaining the gains as we head into the open.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came in mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Purchase index at 9am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  An early move lower could not take out the Tuesday low and we began working higher, eventually extending to a new all-time high in a very mild manner.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5350.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5346.75. Look for buyers down around 5341 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 5358.25 and sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into open air.  No stretch targets available.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work the weekly gap fill down to 5325.25.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Opinion: Investors Are Majorly Underestimating How Live The Next Fed Meeting Is

After watching Yellen testify to congress last week, my listening comprehension skills led me to believe the March Fed meeting will be live, meaning I expect a rate hike.  However, investors down at the CME are only pricing a 17.7% chance of a lift when The Fed convenes March 15th:

What gives?  While equities showed little reaction to her testimony, bonds certainly behaved, albeit briefly, like a hike was coming.

The stock market is ripping to the upside in a grotesque and unobstructed manner, Detroit is actually transitioning into a functioning city (single tear), and the housing market is competitive as I’ve ever witnessed.  For fucked sake, DAVID HALL, the most diabolical mortgage peddler of the housing crisis is back on the radio.

There is an unreasonably low expectation of a March rate hike.  My opinion.


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The Highs Are Weak Heading into Fed Minutes Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range overnight but also managed to form a double/weak high at 5353.75.  At 7am MBA Mortgage data was released.

Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home sales at 10am, the US Treasury is auctioning off $13B worth of 2-year floating rate notes, then at 1pm they’ll auction $34B worth of 5-year notes.

At 2pm the FOMC Minutes will be released from the February 1st meeting.  Traders down at the CME are currently pricing in a 17.7% chance of a rate hike when the Fed next meets on March 15th.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The gap down to start the holiday shortened week was greeted with buying.  Buyers pressed to new all-time highs before price retraced down through the daily mid.  We churned through the NYC lunch then ramped higher at end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to work up through overnight high/weak high 5353.75 to tag measured move target 5358.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5337.25 and tag 5333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down and close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers just below at 5322.50.


Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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National Parks Are Dumb Anyway: Arch Coal Shares Spike Higher on Rumor Trump Preparing Executive Order To Lift Coal Mining Ban

Soon our national parks will be fenced off and occupied by heavy machinery with the explicit purpose of digging giant holes and harvesting sweet, sweet coal.  At least, that’s what the latest rumors from Washington are saying.

Shares of Arch [nemesis] Coal spiked higher Tuesday morning after reports were crossing trading desks saying Trump is preparing an Executive Order to lift the coal mining ban on federal lands.

Arch coal is pumped.  According to their website, they sold 128 million tons of black rock in 2015.  Freed from the oppressive regulations of the EPA, and without regard to dumb hippies and Indians trying to protect sacred swaths of nature, they might be able to blast a few million more tons out of the earth.  With a little luck and dynamite, of course.

These rumors from the White House are all very bullish for coal.

Probably bearish for earth.

Fun times.

Shares of $ARCH actually have a negative return so far, year-to-date.  Let’s hope our authoritarian regime can fix that for the good capital invested in crude energy production.

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