iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,782 Blog Posts

Drifting along the highs, here is Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher overnight, unidirectional rotating upward to new all-time highs.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at record highs.

There are no economic events today.

Walmart earnings came out before market open and were better than expected. Shares of Walmart are slightly lower in premarket trade.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up near record highs. Buyers made a slight move higher after an open two way auction. After spending the morning marking time above the daily midpoint, buyers drove a bit higher in the afternoon, eventually tagging the 11,300 level near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging 11,350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 11,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,289. Sellers continue lower, tagging the naked VPOC at 11,247 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick +95 into Monday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up beyond Friday’s range after an overnight session featuring normal volume and extreme range. Price has steadily rotated higher since Globex trade opened Sunday evening. The unidirectional rotation higher took out the Friday high around 7am, and as we approach cash open price is hovering in the upper quadrant of last Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week essentially marked time across major U.S. indices. A bit of selling early in the week, a bit of buying late in the week. The S&P was divergent strong throughout it. Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range. There was an open two-way auction off the open which served to fill the overnight gap, then sellers continued lower, taking out the Thursday low and briefly pressing range extension down just after 10:30am. That would be all the seller control for the rest of the week because shortly after going range extension down responsive buyers stepped in and worked price back up through the daily midpoint. We walked back down over the midpoint late in the afternoon but never made a new low of day. Instead we ramped back to the midpoint near settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 11,233.25 on their way to probing beyond all-time high 11,266. Look for sellers up at 11,300 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 11,324.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,130.25 setting up a tag of 11,093 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Still bullish

Not much to report on this fine and dewy Sunday. Models remain bullish and continue to call for a calm drift, much like we saw last week. There are some interesting tweets out over the weekend, highlighting super bearish bets taken in the volatility markets last week and others just plumb calling for 50% corrections.

Their sentiment has been noted, and this here humble Raul blog is by no means calling those bets and tweets wrong. But there is certainly no intention to take action based off their tweets. The only tweets that could put a feller like me in action come from either Noble Jack Dorsey or Mankind’s Last Hope our daddy Elon Musk.

Everything else is noise and boy-o-boy is the volume about to be turnt up on the useless noise. Let the games begin. There were two stations around Mothership late last week, set up with large tour buses and hundreds of political signs being handed out, and get this, people were actually taking the signs.

I come from the school of thought that life is too short to allow anyone to hang their sign on me. I’d rather wind up and kick a rock with all my might then hobble over to the ice machine and dip my toes into a cold bath.

Anyhow, there are going to be a lot of people and resources dedicated to breaking through our attention barriers and persuading us to vote for some bullshit that sort of matters but in the grand scheme of things really doesn’t matter at all. I’ll vote, but everything is already predetermined. Our fate was written long before our existence. It is merely our job to maximize pleasure and make stuff look cool before we perish.

Anyhow, I am going to die soon but first I am going to finish digging this kick-ass hole I have going in the back yard.

Cheers to your Sunday. Have a hug and be nice to everyone and I will too.

Raul Santos, August 16th 2020

Exodus members, the 299th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out.

 

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Victory lap optimists: NASDAQ chopping along record highs into Friday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price chopped sideways overnight, chopping along the lower half of Thursday’s range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am, followed by both business inventories and consumer sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day. The session began with a slight gap up and open drive higher. Buyers had price range extension up by mid-morning and defended a lunchtime test of the midpoint. Then they made a new daily high but stalled before taking out all-time-high. Instead responsive sellers reversed the entire morning move and pushed neutral. Said sellers eventually closed the overnight gap before late afternoon action took price back to the midpoint. We ended the session a touch below the mid.

Neutral.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 11,174.75. From here sellers continue lower, down through overnight low 11,138/ Look for buyers at 11,100 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 11,237.75 and tag the Thursday naked VPOC at 11,247 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers take out all time high print 11,271.75 and tag 11,300 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ fast and choppy, here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price was slowly working higher for most of Globex, and even took out the Monday high by a few ticks around 6am New York before tumbling lower. Since then, price has slashed down through the Monday midpoint and as we approach cash open, price is hovering below the mid.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The da began with a slight gap up that was resloved during an open two-way auction before sellers stepped in and drove lower. Said sellers took out last week’s low and nearly tagged the weekly lower ATR band before discovering a sharp responsive bid. We ended the day back above the midpoint, chopping along its topside.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,069. From here they continue higher, tagging 11,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up through overnight high 11,157.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 10,986.50 and tag 10,972.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Grinding into Monday, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, grinding along the bottom-side of Friday’s midpoint. As we approach cash open, price is still hovering below the Friday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off with a gap up across all major indices. Then after a few days of sideways auction price rallied hard Thursday on the wings of Big Tech. Friday we experienced some selling across the board except for on the Russell, which demonstrated divergent strength into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap down, still well up into the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range. After a two way auction buyers closed the overnight gap and even pressed range extension up late in the morning. Said buyers could not, however, extend their gains beyond Thursday’s high. Instead a strong wave of responsive selling pushed in and erased all the day’s gains and pushed us into a neutral print. Sellers rejected an attempt back up into the initial balance and this introduced heavier selling, selling that reversed all of Thursday’s range and eventually tagged last Tuesday’s naked VPOC nearly to the tick. We ramped into the bell but still closed in the lower quadrant of Friday’s range.

Neutral extreme, barely.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 11,156.50setting up a move to tag 11,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 11,073 setting up a tag of 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 11,023.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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All models insist on pressing long bets

Make no mistake, any position bought in the stock market or cypto land with the intent of being sold in less than 10 years is a gamble. It is gambling and if you do not take it seriously then it is at best an expensive hobby. There will be little flashes of glory, but those will be overshadowed by the long and bleak cloud of degradation and waste. Most of the waste will accrue in the form of time. The time you wasted losing your money, when you could have just set up the slow cooker then gone about more better money making affairs, man.

I dunno what you, the reader, what your purpose is. Mine is to extract as many fiat american dollars out of the global financial complex as possible. Said funds are then to be converted into real assets like land and cement and elaborate plumbing. Greenhouses and irrigation and means of production that cannot be stripped from me. My willingness to work hard cannot be taken. Only if my flesh and bones wither and my body is rendered lame. Only then will these real assets lose their luster.

That is why, beyond building now while I am extremely strong of constitution, my purpose is to automate as many tasks as possible or otherwise build them so effectively that an 85 year old with a bad back and hip can maintain them without undue suffering.

Me I like to suffer to a certain extent. I seek pain and discomfort. All forms. Mental and physical. I am a student of discomfort and the information it carries.

Goodness, another Humble Raul aside has been typed. It is a wonder anyone reads this derelict blog.

Anyhow, every model that helps me decide when and how to gamble is telling me to press my longs for at least five more days. And that is how I build my entire strategy. From the top down then from the bottom up then from the top down again.

On Sunday I do my best to forecast the next five trading days. Every morning I do my best to envision the next few hours. Every time I enter a trade I do my best to define my targets, when the trade would be proven wrong and whether the reward for assuming such risk justifies my SPENDING TIME taking it.

I work too hardt but you know what? The harder I work the more opportunity just seems to appear. There is nothing to envy here. No hustle porn even. Just consistent work.

You don’t want to work? That is fine too. I don’t want to work. I am all about Universal Basic Income. I’d sit around all day building fountains and waterfalls and listening to the sounds they make.

But for now we live in a fake capitalism and the path of least resistance is to out work your competition when you are of stronger constitution then them so you can sit back and spend your time writing and building fountains when you’re old and weak of flesh.

I am going to die soon but for now I work.

Raul Santos, August 9th 2020

Exodus members, I really loaded this week’s strategy session, the 298th edition. I think I’d be a good idea to check it out.

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Week is over, the optimists won, go dig a hole elsewhere

Some of you guys crack me up. Ferreting in-and-out of the tickers of garbage pail companies, clicking your hard-earned money around in some futile attempt to cure boredom? I think? It is not a money making pursuit from what I can see.

If you want to extract fiat american dollars from the global financial complex there are three ways:

  1. Invest—-sit and fast and think.
  2. Trade one instrument better than 99% of the competition.
  3. Consistently execute the signals of an algorithm.

I pulled off a bunch of big wins these last few weeks simply by investing in the absolute best companies and CEOs in the world. I didn’t go out and try to find “the next {insert quality company here}” like all these Motley fucking fools. I let Our True Leaders do the heavy lifting. I just sat in the back seat, telling jokes and enjoying the scenery.

Square was a no brainer. I will invest in any CEO who can spend two months at a silent retreat. Noble Jack works hardt then STFU and listens to the wind. That is where all the best ideas come from.

Making money in the stock market can be so simple but some of you jokers take the most convoluted route down this gold-bricked road.

I am in far too good of a mood to sully it trading this Friday tape. I’d imagine most of the real hitters are off enjoying these final days of summer anyhow. Only lonely souls unable to find meaning in life are spending their whole day staring at computer screens on a Friday in August.

Go build something. Anything. No sense waiting for the perfect place to build. Start where ever you are now.

This is Plato’s republic.

Now I am off to work outside.

Cheers and good tidings,

Raul Santos, August 7th, 2020

 

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Jobless data comes out strong, NASDAQ bounces, here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the 11,100 level. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out better than expected and introduced some buyers to the tape. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Wednesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. the day began with a gap up beyond range. Sellers made a small drive lower on the open, resolving the gap and pressing into the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range before finding responsive buyers. Said buyers sent price up to a new daily high but were unable to take out the all-time high print established during Globex. That high is still in place. Buyers took price range extension up after defending the midpoint, and we spent the rest of the day chopping above the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher, probing beyond the current high print 11,144. Look for sellers up at 11,200 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 11,200 and probe the open air, tagging 11,300.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 11,051.25 and tag Tuesday’s naked VPOC 11,033 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ flat into Wednesday, here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume. Price worked higher overnight, marking a new record high before returning to unchanged. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Tuesday’s high print.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM non manufacturing index at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. Range compressed for a second day. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers quickly resolved the gap up with a drive up off the open. Said buyers took out the Monday high by a few point before falling down through the midpoint. This happened before initial balance was broken. Sellers steadily rotated down and erased the morning move, pushing the market range extension down. Sellers were unable to take out Monday’s low however. Instead price ramped higher into the close, eventually pressing neutral and closing on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 11,144 on their way to tagging 11,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 11,055.75. Look for buyers down at 11,022.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers tag 11,000 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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