Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:50am ESTComments Off on The NASDAQ Has Given Up Any Hope of A Move This Week489
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat-ish, down a touch, after an overnight session featuring abnormally low volume on normal range. Price held Thursday’s range in balanced trade along the low-end of value.
On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales and the final December reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am, then at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. There was a morning drive lower followed by a second, initiative wave of selling. Then, on the low-end of value a responsive bidder stepped in.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4936.25. From there we continue higher, up beyond overnight high 4938.25 before settling into trade around the MCVPOC at 4937.25.
For those of you just tuning in, I’ve been putting on a seminar in auction theory trading, live, full time for over two years. However, the most recent lesson being presented to you pertains to how a market develops value and the best way to engage it.
It all started when we were in discovery, which is one of the two modes a market is always in. An excerpt from the Exodus Strategy Session, for reference:
Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery. Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months. In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.
Every week we closely monitor the PHLX Semiconductor index, and the somewhat obscure NASDAQ Transportation index to hammer home these two concepts and hopefully provide useful context on the NASDAQ futures, which are my primary instrument of trade.
What I am doing live, and will continue doing live as long as I have an internet playground, is demonstrating NASDAQ futures trading to you.
Our most recent discovery began December 13th. Back then the profile looked freaky—just the kind I like—because they provide the most opportunity.
This was the picture the morning of December 14th:
It began to mature:
UNTIL NOW, the present profile:
You may notice the market is selling off right now. This may trouble you if you’re too long and for whatever reason not off enjoying Christmas and family.
However, we are coming into the low-end of value. This is nothing for you to concern yourself with yet. It is a mere gyration inside and across value. A round trip, if you will.
It is worth noting that iBankCoin laboratories issued a Krampus alert, which was a way of gussying up a bearish signal generated by the Index Model so you guys would pay attention.
…the plan is to short sell from above value, ride the ripples back down to value and press for a break down and out of value carefully.
Moving on. Some of you, to put it bluntly, are ignorant about the core functions of Exodus. Case in point:
Exodus is not designed so you can shadow The Fly. It is designed to empower you to become a more objective investor and trader. I’ve studied The Fly for over 7 years (kinda creepy, I know) and his core strengths are portfolio building and geopolitical foresight. It’s his penchant for micro fundamental analysis that makes the GARP portfolio the best way to outsource your stock picking research to a Space Alien Magician driving around in a fucking time machine.
THE RESULT? Nealy +20% year-to-date gains, courtesy of Exodus:
If you haven’t noticed, there is a free trial going on right now. That means, instead of sulking around during the holidays, elbow deep in a bottle of scotch, you can sip three fingers of scotch while perusing the most sophisticated market intelligence platform ever created, free of charge. Go sign up now and get inside.
Let me tell you why this free trial is the most important one of the year. The Exodus Strategy session signaled the short last week, and I need to decide whether to carry my short position into the weekend, through Christmas, and into the Santa Rally. Fuckin’ CRAZY right!? So I am going do something a little different. Friday afternoon, as late in the session as possible, but still early enough where I can take action, I am going to issue a partial Exodus Strategy Session—updating the model scores and determining if short conditions still exist. And if you’re inside for a free trial, you will be able to read that privileged information.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price briefly took out the Wednesday low overnight, tagging the Monday gap at 4939 before lurching back to UNCH. At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in below expectations.
Also on the economic calendar today we have leading indicators at 10am and a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.
Yesterday we printed a very benign normal variation. Morning selling led to a range extension down (sellers became initiative) however, their campaign was short lived, and by lunchtime we were back to flat on the session.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4937.25 setting up a move to probe value area low around 4926 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo buyers work up through overnight high 4953 and have a go at new highs, a test up through 4966.25. Look for sellers up at 4971 and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong buyers press up beyond 4977.50 and sustain trade above it, setting up an Obama legacy trend day.
Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 4925 triggering a liquidation down to 4900.
Wed Dec 21, 2016 8:57am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Futures in Peaceful Holiday Drift518
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, right along the top-side of our big value zone. At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in better than last week.
Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home Sales at 10am then crude oil inventories at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. Price stayed inside Monday’s range after opening gap up. A brief expedition to range extension down was quickly rebuffed by responsive buyers (responsive relative to the Tuesday open, initiative relative to the Monday close) and we ended the day back at session mid; just like Monday.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for prices to drift higher, up through overnight high 4960 and up to new highs. Look for sellers up at 4971 and two way trade to ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up beyond 4977.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a trend higher.
Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4950.25 and close the gap down at 4939 before two way trade ensues.
Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:57am ESTComments Off on Markets on The Rise The Tuesday Before Christmas610
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked up to the value area high overnight and is holding high value as we head into cash open.
The economic calendar is light today—only a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed an elongated normal variation up. The more powerful rotations came to the upside, especially in the morning when a strong bid pressed the market higher for the first hour and a half. Sellers were found just above all-time high, and after some indecisive action near value high, a second, initiative wave of selling pushed through. It was, however, faded back higher by end of session.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4939. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 4938.50 setting up a move to test value low down around 4920 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4953 setting up a breakout to new highs. Look for sellers up at 4971 then again at 4977.50.
Hypo 3 strong buyers press to new highs, then sustain trade above 4977.50 setting up a potent, open-air trend higher.
Mon Dec 19, 2016 4:06pm ESTComments Off on High Value Holds on Monday at The NASDAQ Exchange515
Quick note – the higher time frame, the big boys, the institutions, have not taken action yet at the NASDAQ.
Instead the NASDAQ remains in balance. No victor can be declared until a decisive break away from the /NQ_F territory from about 4950 – 4920 is made:
Until then, the plan is to short sell from above value, ride the ripples back down to value and press for a break down and out of value carefully.
This is Auction Theory Trading 101 and I’m putting on a live seminar. That does not mean I will be “right” about the overall direction of this week’s market, only that I will engage the auction thoughtfully and with a penchant for risk management.
I always take my signals, regardless of the news flow. It just so happens that the news flow on #terroristmonday is tragically sad.
A Russian Ambassador was assassinated by a man who appeared well-trained. An investigation into who ordered the killing is ongoing but early reports from a “Turkish senior official” says current investigation focused on gunman’s links to US-based Gulen network. Aka, there is speculation the West is behind the killing. Not good, even if only speculation.