NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, working inside of the Thursday range.
The only economic event scheduled for today is Consumer Credit at 3pm.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap up, and once it was filled we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning higher, working the 9/1 gap fill before settling into two-way trade.
Note: all active trading has moved to the December contract, but the price levels noted below are in reference to the September contract.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5978.50. From here we continue higher, up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5948.50. Look for buyers ahead of 5920 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5884.25 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Sep 7, 2017 8:58am ESTComments Off on Rollforward Day: Prepare for Chicanery and Confusion
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, trading inside the Wednesday range. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
Today is rollfoward, meaning most active traders will begin trading the December contact after opening bell. For the sake of the trading model statistics, the price levels shown in the morning trading report today and tomorrow will be in reference to the September contract. We will roll forward over the weekend. However, look for fast moves to occur. Larger institutions tend to push the market around aggressively during these curious quarterly events.
Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am. This report may be watched more closely as the USA allegedly teeters on the edge of nuclear war and three hurricanes are gunning for our southeast territories.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up that was sold into. Then, by Wednesday afternoon the selling abated and a bid worked into the market. We spent the rest of the day traversing the day’s range, eventually settling up near the daily high.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher. Look for price to work up to the open gap up at 5987.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5932.25. Look for buyers ahead of 5900 and two way trade to ensue.
Tue Sep 5, 2017 8:50am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Begins Short Week Down A Touch
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways along the low-end of Friday’s range overnight.
The economic calendar starts off slow this week. We have Factory and Durable goods orders at 10am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 1pm.
Last week was bullish across the board. By Tuesday morning, we established a strong responsive bid across the board and we spent Tuesday-to-Thursday rallying. Friday marked time. Here is the performance of each major index:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day. Price briefly rose to a new record intraday high before settling into balance.
Over the long holiday weekend, people on the news talked up war, as if we are right on the brink of it. Also hurricane Irma strengthened to a category 5 and most models have it on a path to hit Florida.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5987.25. Look for sellers up at 5987.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5968.25 and continue lower, down to 5955 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.
No effort will be made to sensationalize this week’s findings. About three hours into the research done every Sunday, we have a bullish bias going into next week.
Maybe having a directional bias does not matter to you. That is fine. You do not trade on my level.
Whenever you hear someone say that old trading cliché that goes something like ‘once I realized I can be wrong and still make money, I started being this awesome and amazing trader’ it means they finally wrapped their mind around risk management. Which is great! It is an important step.
But there are levels to this game. Maybe you can operate on a higher plane than getting a firm grip on risk management. Maybe you can create an objective way of forecasting market direction and maybe that can help you extract more money from the exchange.
Semiconductors will tell the story next week. They were consolidating going into last week, then they made an attempt up-and-out of range. The thing is, markets spend the majority of time in balance/range. Very little time is spent discovering new prices. With that in mind, the way I see the semiconductor index heading into next week is not-so-bullish. It looks like the bulls better be on the gas by Wednesday, otherwise a quick trip back to the mean is likely, see below:
Maybe you just buy-the-dip. That is fine. That probably has worked out extremely well for you. If that is your strategy, you will have a hard time buying semiconductors up here, so you’d best hope some real funds come in who could not care less about dips, rips, or anything in between. Some funds that just need exposure to semiconductors at any cost.
Transitions can be hard. Life comes at us fast. People tend to show their true character in times of uncertainty and change. Some take the change with elegance, some take it with a few-too-many swigs of liquor. It all comes down to finding balance.
Which is what we constantly do here at iBankCoin laboratory. We seek balance. Once we find balance, we have a sense of where its boundaries are, where people will be confused and easy to beat. So we beat them with humility then go back into the lab and plan our next move.
It is not sexy, it is not sensational. What is sensational is the money, I suppose. Our culture sure likes money.
We are bullish here. Inside the Strategy Session we lay out a more specific road map for the week, but it probably is not of use for most of you. For most of you, it is just a matter of waiting for the next dip and buying it.
There are not-so-subtle nuances that are being picked up by the Exodus sentinels also—thousands of censors deployed throughout the financial complex—which inform us of rare anomalies.
Again, useful information. Is there some risk of it being arbitraged away because a hand full of people know about it? I doubt it. Most people would not know what to do with the information, and the few that do know are quite likely seeking bigger fish to fry.
In summary, the good scientists at iBankCoin laboratory were reminded recently of the nature of humans. The way their organic systems slowly decay. The constant shedding. Their base instincts and how ugly they can be. And useful. And we realize that the only way to truly create something powerful is to work alongside the gen-pop by consistently offering them extremely objective information in hopes that at some point, perhaps during a period of transition, they will stop and think, “you know what, these scientists are really onto something.”
Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, it is with humility and honor that the 146th edition of Strategy Session was prepared. The report is live now, go check it out!
August was my best month of the year. The IndexModel inside Exodus was dialed into the action well, and I engaged two of the biggest rotations of the year with the help of my research.
Listen, the Sunday Strategy Session and morning trading report are designed for trading a hardcore time frame that most of you have no business working. For you, buy-the-dip is a solid approach. I need to be more specific with my actions because I want to be right, or know when I am wrong as soon as possible. It also has to be repeatable and work in both directions (long/short). I cannot be wrong because it feels wrong or some arbitrary gauge of sentiment. That is why the Sunday forecast and morning hypotheses are so damn specific.
There is no voodoo. The approach is mathematically driven. How I create the statistics has been documented. A few times. I play around with trader psychology via two characters that live inside my brain: a chief scientist and a crocodile. The crocodile can flare up sometimes and act like a drunken primate—reacting to anti Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) sentiment by flinging fresh-pressed feces at the faces of unsuspecting journalists—but I continue to shape my base instinct to be more reptilian because they have existed much longer than mammals.
Below is a chart I marked up. The pink shaded area shows when I issued a Rose Colored Sunglasses (RCS) short bias, the brown area Bunker Buster. The fact that bunker buster was issued before North Korea lobbed a missile over Japan is merely coincidence. What is not of coincidence are the specific words that helped clarify my statistical thoughts at pivotal moments in August. One from the Strategy Session, the other from a blog post. And a tweet.
I present this chart not as an ‘I told you so,’ or a ‘hey everyone come see how awesome I am’ but instead to show you that auction theory works. And hopefully, if you are going down the dark and lonely road of becoming a consistent short term trader, that you will consider formulating your own objective methods of trading.
Here is how I nailed two of the biggest uni-directional rotations of the year, both of which occurred in August after what has been a relatively low-opportunity year. BEHOLD:
Still here? Great, then I shall keep going. This stuff can seem complicated. It makes sense that you may consider it voodoo or nonsense. Believe me, simplicity is key in this game. Like I said, I want my methods to be repeatable over-and-over. I want them to work in multiple markets. Say I wanted to try my hand at short-term trading Bitcoin. I would do my best to source clean data that could be used to build market profile charts to decide which price levels I want to work with. Then I would build a trading model to determine directional bias. Then I would build a renko chart for risk management. Then I would devote a seperate computer to trade execution using the best service possible for seeing short term order flow and trade execution.
I do not want to short-term trade bitcoin or any other blockchain. I want to hold them forever and see what happens.
But perhaps one day I will sashay into a different market. For now, the NASDAQ is good to me. It offers tons of useful internals that help to objectively tell the story.
If you want to know more about auction theory, you can ask me a question in the comments below, DM me on Twitter @IndexModel. If it sounds like we cannot effectively communicate online, we can set up 15 minutes on the phone. I just hope to see more people liberated from other forms of market analysis.
August was the best month so far this year. Here’s to carrying the heat into September, cheers!
Fri Sep 1, 2017 9:20am ESTComments Off on Escape Velocity: NASDAQ Begins September on The Wings of 3-day Trend
NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price worked higher overnight, attaining record highs before settling into two-way trade. At 8:30am non-farm payroll data came out below expectations.
Also on the economic calendar today we have a 10am data dump: ISM Manufacturing/Employment and University of Michigan confidence.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. It was the third consecutive trend day. Quite bullish.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5992.25. Buyers step in here and we work up through overnight high 6019.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, take out overnight high 6019.75 and continue higher, up to 6038 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down through overnight low 5990.25 and continue lower, down to 5985 before two way trade ensues.
Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:04am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Firms Up Heading into Month-end
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked up beyond the Wednesday high before coming into balance. At 8:30am Personal Consumption data was in-line with expectations.
Also on the calendar today we have Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am and Pending Home Sales at 10am.
Yesterday we printed a trend day. It was the second trend day in a row. Quite bullish.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 5957 then a continuation higher, up to 5975.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5936.25 then continue lower through overnight low 5931.75. Look for buyers down at 5928.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 stronger buyers take up up to 5989.75 before two way trade ensues.
Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:22am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Flat As Risk of Hard Sale Is Lifted
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range. Price worked higher overnight, trading well-up-into the trend down from 8/17 before two-way trade ensued. At 8:15am ADP employment data was better than expected. At 8:30am GDP data was better than expected.
The only other economic event today is crude oil inventory at 10:30am.
Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a sharp gap lower. After a brief attempt lower price drove higher. We then spent the rest of the day working back up to the highs set last Friday.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move up through overnight high 5899. Look for sellers around 5900 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger buyers take us up to the open gap at 5924.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5862.50 and continue lower, down to 580 before two way trade ensues.
When shooting an ICBM over Japan cannot derail the Great Rally of 2017, you have to stop and wonder if anything can. This may be the greatest rally in history and we do not even know it yet. The NASDAQ has driven higher since the open, effectively returning us to the ‘crime scene’ prices that we held prior to reports of the missile launch hitting the wires.
For two Sundays, the lab work inside Exodus has resulted in bunker buster forecasts. This is a challenging signal to trade because one must constantly be on the lookout for the proverbial turn, the moment when we form an excess low that we can leg into in anticipation of the rally lasting the rest of the week.
Today we formed a sharp low, it could be the one. I have my doubts. One thing is certain–the aggressive buyers seen last Monday/Tuesday showed up again this morning and defended their territory, which resides just below 5800 on /nq_f.
Should we continue to trend higher this afternoon, my doubts will be vanquished entirely. For now, I am cautiously optimistic that we have seen the low of the week.
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower quickly, then slowly at times, and for the most part in an orderly manner.
There are some economic events to be aware of. Case-shiller house price index at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.
Also, the overnight move was news driven, an impulse reaction to reports of North Korea firing an intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan. Our expectation with any news driven market reaction is a return to ‘the scene of the crime’ at some point.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a big gap up and sellers quickly worked it closed. Then, after closing the gaps a responsive bid stepped in and we rallied a bit, keeping the action inside of Friday’s range before the ensuing two-way trade.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go liquidation. Look for a move down to 5755.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to the open gap at 5720.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5845 before two way trade ensues.