iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,534 Blog Posts

Summer balance, here’s the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight after briefly poking up beyond the Monday high.  The selling pressure took prices down near last Thursday’s low but was unable to probe beyond the Thursday low before coming into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am, also Fed Chairman Powell talking economic outlook and policy at 1pm at the same time as a 2-year note auction.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down, barely.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved.  The rest of the day was spent chopping in a tight balance.  Very late in the session we went range extension down by one tick.  This is the ‘barely’ that made it a normal variation down instead of the uncommon ‘normal’ day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to regain the Monday range and close the gap up to 7759.50,  From here we continue higher, taking out overnight high 7779.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers reject price down and away from Monday low 7749.25 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7714.25.  Look for buyers down at the 7700 century mark and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers tag 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Summer is finally here, sweet summer hallelujah, models are bullish again

That Bunker Buster signal on 06/02 was really something, wasn’t it?  Paired with an Exodus Hybrid Oversold that fired that Friday before the weekend, and we had double the reason to wake up Monday morning, huevos swinging low as we came to market and bought equities.

That bearish signal last Sunday was not the same.  It was like, “Really IndexModel?  Your robot brain thinks it’s a good idea to short here, just a few bull thrusts away from all-time highs, in the wake of a Bunker Buster no less?”  I began shorting /nq_f late Monday and actually saw some traction.  I positioned into SQQQ.  It was maybe looking like an okay move, given the mid-week Federal Reserve wild card.

There was a clear third reaction up to the Fed actions and it was then that I abandoned my short selling campaign, leaving only SQQQ to ride because that is how I trade IndexModel.  It is a five day commitment.  I only tweet when neccecary and third reaction almost always earns a tweet:

But given the CONTEXT, you know, summer time, third reaction up, bunker buster a few weeks ago, hovering near record highs, I didn’t waste my time in front of the computer, shorting the nq_f.

Context was a missing link to my success as a trader for a long time.  All the mentors I found and paid good money to for help could not properly use their words to describe what context was.  They kept it down in their gut or something I don’t know.

Anyways I did my best to quantify context and every.single.day. I do my best to use my words, here in the sacred halls of iBankCoin and on Twitter to call out context.

That’s all I have to say about that.  Models are back to bullish and there is an island in Detroit calling my name.  Enjoy the first day of summer fam, for tomorrow we go back to pulling fiat out of the financial system.

Raul Santos, June 23rd, 2019

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Bulls in charge heading into Fed meeting, here’s the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price marked time overnight, bobbing along the Tuesday midpoint for the duration of Globex.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the mid.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by the FOMC rate decision at 2pm which will be followed at 2:30pm with a press conference with Fed Chairman Powell.  Investors down at the Chicago Mercantile are currently placing 24.2% odds of a 25 basis points rate hike.  This is a live meeting.

Yesterday we printed normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up and after a brief opening two-way auction buyers drove higher.  Price rallied up into the 05/07 range, a day which marked the breakdown from a multi-day consolidation up near record highs.  The 05/08 open gap was closed along the way.  By late morning responsive sellers were discovered and we worked back down to the daily midpoint.  We spent the rest of the day marking time along the mid, eventually closing right on it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 7691 and sustain trade above it, setting up a test up through Tuesday high 7721.75.  There’s open air until 7800 but look for sellers at 7750 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 7663 triggering a liquidation down through the Tuesday low 7625.25.  Look for buyers down at 7611.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 short squeeze ahead of the Fed.  Buyers fully traverse the air gap, tagging 7800 before the meeting.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision to dictate direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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I haven’t shorted the NASDAQ yet, here’s the Monday afternoon trading plan

I was just-on-time sitting down at my trading terminal, only I forgot I had to reboot and load September contract onto my charts.

Then sellers didn’t show up and drive lower off the open, so I knew I had time to do a morning lap around town, handling a variety of municipal matters before traffic ticked up.  It also offered me a solid distraction instead of engaging the short side of the tape Monday morning after two weeks of bullish action.

However, as anyone who read last Sunday’s strategy session knows, IndexModel signaled Rose Colored Sunglasses, which is a bearish bias.  Per the rules of my trading plan, I am only allowed to trade the short side of $nq_f and at some point, ideally before the FOMC press conference, initiate a position in SQQQ, effectively making a leveraged bet against the stock market.

I was feeling a bit anxious to sit down and tease apart the market profiles going back to late-April, which was the last time we were up hear near all-time highs.  “All-time highs,” that’s also a phrase [fact] that is not so bearish.

But the system is the system is the system and by golly if it signals Rose Colored Sunglasses, then I need to find good places to start working the short side of this tape.  Splitting the profiles to find key working levels, preparing a few hypothetical scenarios, and reviewing the latest information coming out of the stock market is like taking an animal tranquilizer.  As I worked through the charts, I felt my breath starting to slow, now I am writing an afternoon plan, soon it will be time to focus back on the task at hand.

Raul Santos, June 17th, 2019

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NASDAQ future came into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume (note: volume metrics are skewed this week, as some active traders are still trading the June contract, despite the majority moving to September).  Price was balanced overnight, forming a tight distribution along last Friday’s high.  As we  approached cash open price was hovering along Friday’s high.

After a brief, two-way open auction buyers stepped in and drove price higher, trading up through last Thursday’s high.  At 10am NAHB hosing market index data came out below expectations.  Buyers worked a bit higher, taking $nq_f range extension up before finding a responsive bid near last Wednesday’s upper quadrant.

At 11:30am 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions took place.  Some selling pressure occurred around that time, but buyers became initiative up ahead of the daily midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week markets came gap up into Monday then spent the rest of the week in a volatile chop.  The Russell demonstrated divergent strength throughout the week, a signal of healthy risk tolerance.  The last week performance of every major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and after a brief two way auction buyers stepped in.  They were unable to reclaim the Thursday low.  Instead we spent the most of the session chopping along the low.  There was a late-day ramp, but it was sold back down to the midpoint before cash markets closed for the weekend.

Heading into this afternoon, my primary expectation is for buyers to make a new high of day, taking out 7577.50 to set up a move to target 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work price down to the daily midpoint 7548, buyers defend here and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through daily mid 7548, setting up a move to target 7500 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Sometimes the systems are dialed in just right

A few years ago I had to be honest with the information I was receiving in the form of huge losses trading stock options.  I wasn’t able to stick to my system.  I didn’t lacked the mental fortitude to wake up five days a week with 15 cannons pointed at me ready to blow of the hands, feet, and groin of my trading account.  I have nothing against option traders, but I learned that my skill set is not suited for a system that only wins 10-20% of the time.

I went back into the lab, looked at which trades I did best, and tripled-down on the process of doing those trades well.  I also went to work establishing other forms of cash flow outside of trading.  Then I carefully pressed weights up-and-down for four years, and weeded gardens, and dug lots of holes, and wheelbarrow-d sand around like an immigrant.

Anyways, last week I booked about equal the gains as I’ve had so far in all of 2019 combined, effectively doubling my profits for the year.  Basically I waited six months for the proverbial deck to stack and then aggressively executed my trades.

I superimposed the last two executive summaries from the Sunday Strategy Session onto this chart.  Each forecasted five day’s worth of price action with uncanny accuracy:

There are a handful of people who use Exodus every day to enhance their approach to investing and trading.  The rest of the subscribers are wanton degenerates, ferreting about our tool shed with no intent.  I’d like to see all these jokers leave and never come back.  They don’t have the right ingredients to be a trader.

The only difference between both types of Exodus subs and yours truly, is I am trading better than all of you, all whilst putting on a live seminar on the art of trading.

If you want an internet sewing circle to sit around all day and gossip about the latest news bit, go tweet—daddy needs Twitter’s users active.  My massive TWTR holding needs to hit all-time high or zero so I can move on with my life.

As for Exodus, I’d like to see it populated only by ruthless traders, scoundrels who would just as soon pluck my eyeballs out if given the chance.  People with no sworn allegiance, dead-set on pirating about the financial markets capturing fiat american dollars, gyarr.

That’s all I have to say about any of this except for one more thing:

June is RAUL’S MONTH.

 

-Raul Santos, June 16th 2019

Exodus members, the 239th edition of Strategy Session will be live in about two hours (around 2pm New York).  I haven’t written it yet, so I do not know which section will be most interesting.  Bonus points if you go back to the 06/10-06/14 report and revisit the talk about NASDAQ transports.  They were THE TELL to hold on during last week’s little selling bout.  Had you, for whatever reason, been sweating the mid-week selling, this contextual piece could have provided you solace.  Instead of seeking it from another person, like a mentor or Elon Musk aka DAD.

PS – “Happy Father’s Day”

 

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NASDAQ down a quick -50 into roll forward Friday, here’s the trading plan

NOTE: While most active traders have ‘rolled forward’ to trading the September contract, this report and all price levels referenced are for the June contract, which I will continue to trade until next week.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday, Flag Day, gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced most of the overnight session until about 4am New York when sellers began pressing prices lower.  We made a new weekly low overnight, poking into last Friday’s range briefly before discovering a responsive bid.  At 8:30am, advance retail sales data came out below expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of Wednesday’s range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the primary June reading of sentiment from the University of Michigan at 10am and business inventories at the same time.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and beyond Wedneday’s range.  An early drive higher managed to poke just beyond the Tuesday midpoint before sellers stepped in and worked us range extension down.  Said sellers were unable to reclaim the Wednesday range however, and we spent the rest of the day chopping along the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7524.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7527.75.  Look for sellers up at 7550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 7600, triggering a rally up to 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7451.50 setting up a move to target 7415.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Week-long balance continues, here’s the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ future are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight until about 10pm New York when sellers stepped in and spiked price lower.  The action tagged the gap left behind from last Friday nearly to the tick before forming a sharp excess low and reversing the auction higher.  By 6:30am price had traversed the entire Wednesday range and taken out the highs.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out worse-than-expected, and as we approach cash open price is hovering just below the Wednesday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week t-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down that buyers were unable to resolve during the open two-way auction.  Instead sellers stepped in and worked price down through the weekly low by a few points but this did not trigger a liquidation down into the weekend gap.  Instead price balanced out and marked time below the daily midpoint and into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7524.  Look for sellers up at 7550 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7550 setting up a move to target the open gap up at 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7474.  Look for buyers down at 7450 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ slight gap down, here’s the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down below the Tuesday range before coming into balance.  At 8:30am, consumer price index data came out and below expectations, suggesting inflation is below expectations.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below the Tuesday range.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and probe higher, up beyond the Monday high (which was set after tagging an old naked value point of control from May 17th) which discovered strong responsive sellers.    The rest of the early morning was choppy and volatile before giving way to sellers who eventually closed the overnight gap and pressed a bit below it, but never took out the Monday low before we balanced into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7518.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7531.  Look for seller ahead of 7550 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers reject a move back into Tuesday range low 7492.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 7472.75.  Look for buyers down at 7460.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up through overnight high 7531, tag the 7600 century mark and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target the open gap at 7645 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ coming into the week up +40, here’s the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price opened gap up Sunday night, pushing up nearly 60 points when Globex opened for trade at 6pm New York. The action was faded lower until about 9pm when we came into balance.  Then around 7am sellers began working price a bit higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering up near the highs of 05/21.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began with weakness through most of Monday, across the board, except for the Russell was strong.  This major risk divergence was interesting, because the rest of the week was spent rallying hard.  We closed the week on the highs across the board.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a short squeeze, ‘letter P’ shaped profile.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher, and while the market went range extension up (normal variation up) it accomplished little more—instead it drifted sideways into the closing bell.  Perhaps most participants took off early to enjoy, weather-wise, at least in the north, what felt like the first real summer weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7484.75 and continuing higher to tag the open gap at 7511.25.  Then the magnet, naked VPOC at 7571 is tagged before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close teh gap down to 7420.75.  Look for buyers down at the 7400 century mark and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers reverse much of Friday’s short squeeze, trading down to 7311.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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China will win the trade wars but the real victory is the friends we make along the way

I love the Chinese mentality right now.  It could maybe make me sad that when I travel outside the United States, other world citizens will identify me alongside the ideologies of my President, but let’s just not talk about it.  The whole idea of nations is a flimsy social construct.  Some rules written on pieces of paper.  The only human fantasy worth associating with are the public markets.  If it weren’t for electronic futures, like if we re-enter the Cold War only this time everyone ignites their new bombs and these bombs knock electronic futures offline alongside all other computer stuff—hell I’ll take to trading alpacas and pirated diesel fuel.  I don’t care.

Put me anywhere and I will do my best to create a market in-and-around something.  “You want to buy? I have this for you today only, best price.  Oh, you meant to sell?  Let me know about how’d much you’re thinking to charge okay maybe I buy.”

China is playing long-term like thirty human generations out and we’re still trying to keep the baby boomers afloat.  My China correspondent, ROBERTO BREGANTE, informed me that this is the message being parroted by top executives from the Far East:

Chinese economy like sea, not a pond…when the storm comes the pond disappear, but when the storm leaves, the sea is calm and eternal.

Don’t bet against companies, religions, people, nations, who have proven an ability to think long-term and execute their vision.  Companies like Tesla and Google come to mind.  Religions like Scientology and Jehovah Witness.  People like Elon Musk or Genghis Khan.  No nation comes to mind.  It’s a flimsy construct.  But does any of this really matter?

No, not really.  The andromeda galaxy will collide with ours soon no matter how big any person or cognitive bias grows.

I suppose all that matters is enjoying your blip of time here on Spaceship Earth, taking a shot at intergalactic travel if you have the opportunity, and being kind.

That’s it, and remember, JUNE IS RAUL’S MONTH.

Raul Santos, June 9th, 2019

PS – still bullish

 

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