iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,957 Blog Posts

Cruising into month-end a poor man

It’s feast and famine at the House of Raul (HoR). Has been since I left the mediocre existence of a corporate pleb earning 70,000 fiat american per annum. Now I speculate and toil. Speculate and toil. Toil and toil and speculate waiting for my number to be called.

My number has not been called in weeks resulting in risk management protocol going into place. I have reduced my trading size to one third normal position size until thing settle a bit.

Meanwhile I continue to live in a van between the toiling, eating tins of fish meat.

IndexModel is neutral into month-end. On the note of IndexModel, I’d like to offer props to whomever grabbed that twitter handle when I set it free. Good form.

I’ll be doing today and tomorrow what I always do when my hand goes cold. I clean. Clean and organize and clean some more. Scrub the walls and purge the garage. Do these things and think and prepare for the next big speculation.

Okay for now.

Raul Santos, May 23rd 2021

And now the 339th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/24/21 – 05/28/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.25, medium bull.  Choppy price action into month-end. Watch for a reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell to put direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Choppy through Tuesday then some late Tuesday selling. Pro gaps down Wednesday that were bid into resulting in an all-day rally. Rally carried into Thursday. Marked time Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Mixed bag. Slight risk aversion with Staples and Utilities performing well. But Tech diverged from broad weakness elsewhere.

neutral

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows skewed heavily to the positive side of the ledger.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about +250 basis points.

Money flows are bullish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

K.I.S.S.

Keep your focus on consistently executing the signals generated by the Stocklabs mother algo. Do only this well and it will keep you on a path of consistent profitability. Keep it simple.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy price action into month-end. Watch for a reaction to NVIDIA earnings Wednesday after-the-bell to put direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance at the highs is not bearish

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are maybe in balance. Maybe still discovering higher prices.

See below:

Semiconductors are balanced. Nvidia earnings Wednesday after-the-bell could shake this index loose.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral for a second consecutive week after being e(RCS) bullish two weeks back and RCS bearish three weeks prior.

We had a Bunker Buster twelve weeks ago.

Neutral means no bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am a great believer in luck. The harder I work, the more of it I seem to have.” Coleman Cox

Trade simple, put work into every trade

Comments »

Bulls set to take victory lap // here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second-to-last Friday in May with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along and often exceeding the Thursday high. As we approach cash open price is overnight a touch above Thursday high.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up beyond the prior day range and drive higher, driving up clean thru to a new seven day high before chopping a bit inside the 05/10 conviction selling range. We ended the session flagging along the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 13,600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,638.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low 13,479.25 on their way to tagging 13,400.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Jobless claims falling // here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday up a quick +80 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s range until about 8:30am when jobless claims data came out better than expected and sent price higher. As we approach cash open price is hovering near the Tuesday midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down to a new weekly long and then a drive higher at the open. Price drove higher, then chopped back to the mid before beginning a steady campaign higher. The buying ultimately closed the overnight gap before checking back to the mid around the release of the 2pm FOMC minutes. Buyers defended the mid and price campaigned higher into the close, closing in the lower quad of Tuesday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go higher to 13,333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 13,372.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 13,150 setting up a tag of 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ for sale // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures drove lower overnight on extreme range and volume. Price has been steadily campaigning lower since midnight, and as we approach cash open prices are flirting with last week’s lows.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a slight gap up near prior day highs. Sellers resolved the overnight gap during an open two way auction, then buyers worked higher and resolved the Friday gap. That led to an early range extension up before sellers knocked price down through the daily mid. Price walked over the mid a few times before sellers ultimately pressed an afternoon neutral print and accelerated their selling into the close, closing on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go down to 12,900.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers tag 12,818 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory, tagging 13,100 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ recuperates Monday losses // here is Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ future are heading into OPEX Tuesday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Price drove higher overnight, working up beyond the Monday high and briefly exceeded last Friday’s high before discovering responsive sellers. Since then price has retraced lower a bit. At 8:30am housing starts/permits data came out mixed, and as we approach cash open price is hovering above the Monday high.

Walmart is up +3.25% in pre-market trade after reporting earnings.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down in range, right along the midpoint of last Friday’s range. There was a big/choppy open two-way auction which ultimately gave way to selling. Sellers worked an early range extension down after chopping along the mid for a bit and eventually took out last Friday’s low by a few points before a responsive bid stepped in late in the afternoon and ramped price back up through the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Monday high 13,343 setting up a move to 13,486 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 13,500.

Hypo 3 sellers press back into Monday high 13,343 and sustain trade below it, setting up a move down through overnight low 13,290 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ heading into OPEX week down a mild -70 // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are a touch lower heading into option expiration week after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced for much of the overnight session, balancing along the upper quadrant of Friday’s range. Then around 7:25am New York price poked a bit lower, and as we approach cash open price is hovering just above last Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have housing market index at 10am followed by 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Also be aware the largest U.S. employer in 39 states (Walmart) is set to report earnings Tuesday before the bell.

Last week had a trend down Monday across the board. Then continuation selling through Wednesday. Eventually a snap-back rally took hold Thursday and into the weekend, accentuated by a trend up Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend up. The day began with a gap up near the Wednesday/Thursday high. After a brief open-two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove higher, driving higher clean through to 3pm before sort of flagging into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,393.25. From here buyers continue higher, tagging 13,400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers make a run up to last Monday’s naked VPOC 13,500.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low 13,301 and sustain trade below it setting up a move down to 13,200.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Few weeks of mayhem ahead

Not in the stock market. Stocklabs is flagging bullish and only the old gods, Janet Yellen or Walmart can do anything to hinder the rally. It is the mayhem of progress I’m referring to as we race to put corn into the ground before the moon goes full. Ten days.

Corn lads, sweet corn and lots of it. I’m working with five different heirloom varieties, one purported to yield tasty sweet corn in 65 days. One ear per stalk, stalks 5-to-7 feet tall. Said corn will be converted into doge as I and others toil to help daddy Elon realize his vision of one currency to rule them all — a joke coin — a hustle — the hustle IS alive.

I work so heckin’ dang good hard you have no idea. Toiling. All the little bones in my wrists and forearms click and wiggle when I sit down and commit to the mouse and keyboard because most of the time they wield shovels and wheeled barrows and hoses and knives and saws — tools — I’m a man not some video game junkie — I jack it with both hands. Work while you can an old man told me.

When I’m an old boomer I need everything done built. Then I can sit around taking psychedelics and meditating and writing stories.

I reckon I’ve got at least 50 good years left in me for speculating, as long as I can keep my brain sharp. As for building, toiling, developing the infrastructure to be a fully independent food producer high up here in the progressive north, I prolly have about 10 years left on this decaying sack of flesh I inhabit.

My bones wiggle and creak. My entire suspension system from the rooter to the tooter is already flashing a check engine light on the proverbial dashboard of the central nervous system.

I work like a machine. Steady. Long duration sessions 14 sometimes 16 hours without breaks. Fueled by cheap lager, del taco bean goo and reefer. I toil like this despite warnings from Hermann Hesse and Thea von Harbou.

I love seeing a person move with purpose. This nice Asian man at Home Depot last week helped me load some OSB into EL BURRO BLANCO. He was jogging around the parking lot. He had a little ear piece in and was on a call talking about handling some business. He was like a grown up version of ‘Data’ from The Goonies. I’m usually the only one bouncing around, relentlessly dominating tasks. It was nice to see someone else moving with some purpose.

The fat american can only move with purpose when they’re in their penis-compensation-mobiles, hurrying across the motorways and for what? They look miserable.  Hurrying to their next serving of meat.

People in Detroit often wonder aloud, “why do so many chaldeans have so much money?” Because they’ll put three generations, sisters and cousins in one 4,500 square foot house and concentrate their resources. The Italians used to do this too, but they’re drifting into the Americanized way of solitude and mediocrity.

Chaldeans stick together and you look at all the businesses they own after only being in this country one maybe two generations, and it makes you realize just how mysterious the fat american is. Your clan has been here for how many hundred years? Yet live in a house owned by a fucking banker? And a picked-up truck you borrow for 600 fiat american a month.

My clan has been in America for only about 50 years and look at us? We’re thriving. Coping land deals. Eight lots at a time. Immigrant hustle will win nine times out of ten especially in the shadow economy. The land is there. We buy. We fix it to grow corn. We’re the captains now. Go cheer for your college basketball team, stupid american, we will toil and toil and TOIL.

That’s about alls I have in me today in terms of Sunday sentiment.

Raul Santos, May 14th 2021

And now the 338th edition of Strategy Session. Enjoy.

Stocklabs Strategy Session: 05/17/21 – 05/21/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.20, neutral.  Steady rally into Tuesday morning, then look for Walmart earnings to dictate direction until Wednesday afternoon, then watch for the third reaction to FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Trend down Monday across the board. Continuation selling through Wednesday. Snapback rally Thursday and into the weekend, accentuated by a trend up Friday.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Tech and Discretionary rotated away from. Staples and Financials relative strength.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Money flows negatively but not in an extreme manner. There were some key semiconductor industry groups on the negative side of the ledger.

Volume delta remains pinned negative and median return was about -130 basis points.

Money flows are slightly bearish.

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Counting cycles

See last week’s Strategy Session. It references a 6-month oversold cycle that ended May 4th. That same day Stocklabs went oversold on the 6-month again. This is where one must decide how they count cycles and which ones count and which ones don’t.

Because if we decide that a signal happening on the tenth day is an active signal, then we are 8 days into a different oversold cycle.

However, the way I count these signals is that it runs through that tenth day and a new signal would only be active the following session.

That puts us into a position where The Wednesday May 12th oversold signal is active. Otherwise, it would not be since it occurred in the middle of the May 4th signal.

It does not matter which method we choose, only that we stick to it. Otherwise when everything is moving and our emotions are maybe clouding our judgment we are more likely to commit an error.

Of note, the May 12th oversold signal triggered on both the six and twelve month ago. I am going with it.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers.

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Steady rally into Tuesday morning, then look for Walmart earnings to dictate direction until Wednesday afternoon, then watch for the third reaction to FOMC minutes to dictate direction into the second half of the week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Balance and congestion

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports saw an uptick in volatility along the highs here, making the picture heading into next week appear to be balance. Balance along these highs is not bearish.

See below:

Semiconductors are also congested and appear to be in a healthy, time-based correction, balanced along the highs.

See below:

V. Stocklabs Hybrid Oversold

On Wednesday, May 12th Stocklabs flagged oversold on the 6- and 12-month algorithms. These bullish cycles run through end-of-day May 26th. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VI. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is neutral after being e(RCS) bullish last week and RCS bearish two weeks prior

We had a Bunker Buster eleven weeks ago.

Neutral means no bias.

Here is the current spread:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Commit to your business. Believe in it more than anyone else.” Sam Walton

Trade simple, guard your emotional capital

Comments »

NASDAQ down a quick -190 // here is Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the top side of Tuesday’s midpoint until 8:30am when CPI data came out higher than expected, introducing a wave of selling that nearly took out the Tuesday low. Since then we have been chopping in the lower quadrant of Tuesday range and that is where price is as we approach cash open.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 10-year note auctions at 1pm and a Treasury Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap down into levels unseen since March 31. A brief probe lower at the open managed to close the 03/31 gap before buyers stepped in and drove price higher. Said buyers pushed price higher for the first 30 minutes, then we had a sharp move back to the daily mid, buyers defended and this set up a gap fill. Price then chopped along the Monday low for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,317.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to Monday naked VPOC 13,500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low 13,091 setting up a run to 13,000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

Pro gap down into Tuesday, here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Tuesday of May pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower around 8pm New York then balanced until about 7:30am before resuming the selling. As we approach cash open, price is hovering around 13,100, a handle we haven’t traded since March 31st.

On the economic calendar today we have JOLTS jobs openings at 10am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down. The day began with a gap down below the Friday low and a drive lower. Said drive created an early range extension down and effectively tagged last Thursday’s naked volume point of control. There was a small bounce here before sellers resumed their campaign, with selling that steadily worked price down through last week’s lows. We ended on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower down to 13,000.

Hypo 2 buyers work a half gap fill up to 13,189 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 13,342.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Gap down in range ;-) here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the second Monday in May with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight until about midnight New York when sellers began a campaign that ultimately worked price down through the Friday low around 2:45am. Since then price has balanced along the Friday low, and as we approach cash open price is hovering near the Friday low.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a hard down move through Tuesday, then chop along the lows until a rally took shape Thursday and into the weekend. Dow had relative strength all week. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day, which is anything but, happening less than 15% of the time. A normal day features no range extension after the first hour of trade. Friday began with a gap up beyond the prior three days’ ranges. Then there was an open-test lower, then drive higher. Said drive continued for the first hour, successfully closing the gap left behind Monday . That would be it for price discovery. The rest of the session saw price steadily return to the midpoint, then sellers reclaimed the mid, then we nearly went range extension down but instead held initial balance and worked back to the mid. We ended the session hovering below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 13,717.50. From here buyers continue higher, up through overnight high 13,752. Look for sellers just above at 13,766 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 13,800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 13,636.50. Look for buyers down at 13,606 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »